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Topic: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: SA7700
Posted 2014-03-19 05:29:52 and read 72672 times.

Due to length part 36 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 37:


MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 1 (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 15 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16 (by SA7700 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 17 (by 777ER Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 18 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 19 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 20 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 21 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 22 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 23 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 28 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 32 (by ManuCH Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 33 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34 (by SA7700 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35 (by SA7700 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 36 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)



**********************************************************************************************

**** ADDITIONAL NEWS REPORTS ****

MH370: search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane extended to southern Indian Ocean

Najib's full press statement on MH370

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: What we know so far

MISSING MH370: Timeline

Flight MH370: Police focus on pilots as search for airliner goes on - live updates

Flight MH370: New timeline casts doubt on pilot deception theory

MISSING MH370: ACARS cannot be disabled

MISSING MH370: Search for missing aircraft above politics: Hishamuddin


***********************************************************************************************


SOME IMPORTANT REMINDERS FOR ALL OUR MEMBERS TO CONSIDER BEFORE POSTING IN THIS THREAD:

**** Out of respect to the crew, passengers and also family members; close to those onboard MH370; please keep science fiction theories and content related to past / current movies or possible future movie rights out of these threads. ****

**** PLEASE DO NOT REPEAT QUESTIONS AND SCENARIOS THAT HAS BEEN COVERED AND DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS THREADS AND WHICH DO NOT CONTRIBUTE OR APPLY, IN A CONSTRUCTIVE MANNER, TOWARDS THIS CONVERSATION ANY LONGER. ****

**** Please make an effort to read through some of the threads, if possible the latest in the series, before adding your own comments and theories to the current, active thread on this issue. ****

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Enjoy the forums!

Regards and thanks for your co-operation,

SA7700

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: RayChuang
Posted 2014-03-19 05:40:37 and read 72632 times.

Let's face it folks. The search for MH 370 is too slow because we lack a resource to search thousands of square kilometers of the Earth's surface fairly quickly outside of satellites.

It's time to call in the U-2S and RQ-4 Global Hawk from the USAF or the Myasishchev M-55 from the Russian Air Force to scan the surface from a height of 60,000 feet--a height high enough to scan many thousands of square kilometers of the Earth's surface on a single flight.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rfields5421
Posted 2014-03-19 05:44:29 and read 72381 times.

From the previous thread posted by Voodoo

Quote:
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 237):

But the one thing I have not heard about the pilot's flight sim - is it MSFS, is it X-Plane, is it a certified FTD program?
Forget where I sourced this (from an e-mail I sent to someone earlier today) but if this helps:

"Police said Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah played the games Flight Simulator X, Flight Simulator 9 and X-Plane 10. The logs from these games were deleted on February 3 and police are trying to access the deleted information."

In FS9, logging has to be turned on as an option.
In FSX, logging is a basic feature, but the log files can easily become corrupted and require that the .bin file be manually deleted to restore logging. Otherwise the program functions normally, but no new entries are added to the log. One issue FSX has with log files is that when they get very large they become more likely to become corrupted.

Don't know about logging in X-Plane 10.

Also, the police statement indicates that he did not access / operate any of the three flight simulator games since Feb 3. Over a month before MH370 disappeared.

Seems very unlikely for someone who was supposedly practicing for a difficult landing/ flight.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: gulfstream650
Posted 2014-03-19 05:46:12 and read 72310 times.

Do we have any definitive result as to the Maldives sightings?

Another thought. If the plane did crash into the Indian Ocean then in theory, every day that goes by ought to widen the debris field - that should help somewhat.

[Edited 2014-03-19 05:48:01]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: kaitak
Posted 2014-03-19 05:47:56 and read 72350 times.

I haven't commented on any of these threads so far, but just to add this tidbit. I was talking to a friend, a private pilot and instructor of some 30+ yrs experience. He was talking about a flight on a private aircraft he took back in 1981 from Dublin to Jersey and at that time, there was a certain restricted area one could pass through at weekends; during his passage through this restricted area, he was asked to contacted London Mil frequency and they asked him if he had a GPS; he had a very basic one; they were very new in '81. The military people tested it to see if they could block it.

The point? Even back in 1981, when radar and surveillance technology was a fraction of how advanced it is today, they could spot small aircraft, even under the radar (as they were). How much more advanced their technology is today and of course, therein lies a problem; no one seems to want other countries to know just how far their reach extends or how effective (or otherwise) their coverage - this applies both to other countries in the region, but likewise, to people who might be planning similar things.

Malaysia today reported new radar information; not sure (as I write this) if this has been published yet.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: garpd
Posted 2014-03-19 05:50:50 and read 72117 times.

Quoting gulfstream650 (Reply 3):
Do we have any definitive result as to the Maldives sightings?

Dismissed in last press conference

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-19 05:55:13 and read 71888 times.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 5):
Seems very unlikely for someone who was supposedly practicing for a difficult landing/ flight.

Unless hed had done all his practicing by February 3rd and then just waited time to pass and a suitable flight. If he had deleted the logs the previous night of the MH 370 it would have been highly suspicious. I am not saying that he is guilty based on the current evidence, though.

EDIT: Correction to reply referral due to reply renumbering

[Edited 2014-03-19 06:19:04]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-19 06:01:07 and read 71558 times.

Am surprised so far no Medium/Psychics claimed they know something unless I missed it

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-19 06:10:02 and read 71086 times.

Quoting capri (Reply 8):

They already did. Didn't you see the Shaman, holding coconuts and bamboo binocular predicting the plane is still flying or already crashed after two days. On serious note, there was another psychic reenacted the event of what's actually transpired there. That was about 8 days ago where he saw them still flying after 3.5 hours. Hijacker about 35, wearing brown shirt. Two of them. One took control of the flight. Then plane crashed into see. Water is very chill......And all died.



 

[Edited 2014-03-19 06:11:11]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-19 06:10:47 and read 71105 times.

Have Maldives sightings been dismissed too quickly?

Of course the Maldives are not in the "official" search area but I believe it is worth reading the report by minivannews, a local on-line newspaper:

http://minivannews.com/politics/mh37...s-malaysian-defence-minister-80362

The argument for dismissing the sightings st this point is that neither civilian nor military radars noticed anything unusual.
Anybody knows where the Maldives military radars are located?
As for the civilian radars if we assume they are only near Male and GAN, the area of the sightings is approx. 100nm from Male and 190nm from GAN.

If anyone wanted to approach the Maldives while avoiding civilian radars, Kuda Huvadhoo looks like a pretty good spot. Just make sure you stay below 5,000ft.

Notice also that the sightings were apparently reported on March 9th but of course immediately dismissed. Remember, at that time the plane was supposed to be in the "official" search ares, east of Malaysia.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-19 06:15:01 and read 70858 times.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 10):

I think it was dismissed because it was outside the fuel duration of 7.5 hours. I was hoping for reporters to ask Malaysia Government whether they could provide a definitive number on the actual fuel MH370 carried but no one did.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-19 06:15:05 and read 70861 times.

Quoting Tapir (Reply 9):

Well I guess I missed all of these,

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-19 06:16:49 and read 70780 times.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 4):
he had a very basic one; they were very new in '81. The military people tested it to see if they could block it.

Considering the first of the GPS "Block II" constellation (not prototype, available for public use) was launched in 1989, I would say that's no small feat for a private pilot!

Basically what I'm saying is that your buddy is telling tall tales.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-19 06:17:23 and read 70767 times.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 10):
The argument for dismissing the sightings st this point is that neither civilian nor military radars noticed anything unusual.

... and the Inmarsat pings.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-19 06:22:22 and read 70455 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 7):
Um.... I didn't say that!

Corrected... for some reason a reply can end up having a wrong referral if replies in-between are removed at the same time

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-19 06:28:57 and read 70140 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 13):
Basically what I'm saying is that your buddy is telling tall tales.

There was an older system (Navstar?) and of course there was DECCA, LORAN, etc. I only encountered those in a marine context, though.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-19 06:33:48 and read 70084 times.

Some progress from Bloomberg:

NTSB analysis on the plane’s fuel reserves and the distance it could have flown narrowed the search area to about 305,000 square kilometers (118,000 square miles).

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/201...k-on-analysis-using-fuel-data.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-19 06:35:48 and read 69915 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 14):
... and the Inmarsat pings.

Of course. For me "Inmarsat3 F1 last ping" is implied every time I say "official search area"
As for the dismissal by the Maldives, the argument appears to be that they saw nothing on radar, not that the eyewitnesses were sci-fi bufs that previously claim to have seen or visited UFOs.
The Male police is investigating but have not said anything yet.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-19 06:39:11 and read 69679 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 15):
There was an older system (Navstar?) and of course there was DECCA, LORAN, etc. I only encountered those in a marine context, though.

Navstar is what GPS Block 1 satellites were called, they were prototypes for testing and not available for civilian use. LORAN existed, sure, but that's not space-based...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-19 06:44:48 and read 69351 times.

Quoting Tapir (Reply 10):
I think it was dismissed because it was outside the fuel duration of 7.5 hours

I think the Maldives are much closer to KL than Beijing.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Voodoo
Posted 2014-03-19 06:46:23 and read 69255 times.

Quoting Tapir (Reply 11):

I think it was dismissed because it was outside the fuel duration of 7.5 hours. I was hoping for reporters to ask Malaysia Government whether they could provide a definitive number on the actual fuel MH370 carried but no one did.

Crazy isn't it.. that there is no central database of basic info like that available. It's not as if that could not be determined since the paperwork must exist.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: thunderboltdrgn
Posted 2014-03-19 06:50:26 and read 69036 times.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 19):
I think the Maldives are much closer to KL than Beijing.

It is. http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=MLE-KUL-PEK&MS=wls&DU=nm&SG=450&SU=kts

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-19 06:52:08 and read 68892 times.

Quoting CALTECH (Reply 22):

it's a hoax, a 777 with a 380 picture

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-19 06:55:03 and read 68700 times.

Quoting Tapir (Reply 10):
I think it was dismissed because it was outside the fuel duration of 7.5 hours. I was hoping for reporters to ask Malaysia Government whether they could provide a definitive number on the actual fuel MH370 carried but no one did.

Not only that I wish some reporter will ask if there were any Deportees to China???
read an article which still bothers me and that article disappeared from its website but there are quotes from article which i posted in thread 35 and 36

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: na
Posted 2014-03-19 06:56:20 and read 68580 times.

Quoting k83713 (Reply 16):
Some progress from Bloomberg:

NTSB analysis on the plane’s fuel reserves and the distance it could have flown narrowed the search area to about 305,000 square kilometers (118,000 square miles).

Thank you. That is an area of a size halfway between the UK and Germany, and less than half of Texas or New South Wales.

I assume that is the area where MH370 could have ended up including the area the currents would have distributed any debris.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: gatorman96
Posted 2014-03-19 06:58:34 and read 69958 times.

Quoting Voodoo (Reply 20):
Quoting Tapir (Reply 11):

I think it was dismissed because it was outside the fuel duration of 7.5 hours. I was hoping for reporters to ask Malaysia Government whether they could provide a definitive number on the actual fuel MH370 carried but no one did.

Crazy isn't it.. that there is no central database of basic info like that available. It's not as if that could not be determined since the paperwork must exist.

Not sure what you mean by central database, but the fueling company and the airline know exactly how much fuel was loaded into MH370. The fuel provider would like to get paid and the airline wants to make sure they aren't paying too much. I can assure you the authorities involved in the investigation have already viewed these records and know how much fuel was on board MH370.

The investigators have chosen not to reveal these details and when you think about it, why should they? We have no right to know what these values are.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: A380Heavy
Posted 2014-03-19 06:59:16 and read 70338 times.

I don't know if this has been posted but I was sent the link by an opponent in a game of Word Feud:

Chris Goodfellow - MH370 A different point of view. Pulau Langkawi 13,000 runway.

Seems fairly plausible.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-19 07:01:13 and read 72864 times.

Quoting capri (Reply 12):

Oh dear! That was the best news so far from Malaysia. The shaman was invited to KLIA by Msia top leader, so he says. The fact he was allowed to conduct his ritual in KLIA airport speaks so much as to the quality of people involved in the investigation.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 19):
Quoting Voodoo (Reply 20):

They saw the plane at 6 15 am. That means Msia local time would be 9.15 am . That means 8.5 hr flight. It is possible, maybe later we will hear there was extra fuel leftover from the previous flight.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: gatorman96
Posted 2014-03-19 07:04:56 and read 72024 times.

Quoting capri (Reply 23):
Not only that I wish some reporter will ask if there were any Deportees to China???

From the previous thread:

Quoting Quoting Dalavia (Reply 181)::

The press conference confirmed that all countries have returned background checks on the passengers from their countries except for Russia and Ukraine.The checks received revealed no basis for alarm

Any refugees being forced to return to China would've been revealed with a background check.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-19 07:05:54 and read 72168 times.

Quoting A380Heavy (Reply 26):
Quoting Tapir (Reply 27):
They saw the plane at 6 15 am. That means Msia local time would be 9.15 am . That means 8.5 hr flight. It is possible, maybe later we will hear there was extra fuel leftover from the previous flight.

exactly, big difference between putting in 7.5hrs worth of fuel or the entire plane has 7.5hrs of fuel, they never specified exactly

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-19 07:08:03 and read 71699 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 18):
Navstar is what GPS Block 1 satellites were called

Hmm... you're right. In that case I don't know what it was. It wasn't as early as 1981 but it was before the full Block II constellation became operational and was already a few years old. Perhaps it was just an "opportunist" receiver that was able to make partial use of what was operational. It was certainly pretty crude and was replaced as soon as a GPS receiver was available.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 17):
For me "Inmarsat3 F1 last ping" is implied every time I say "official search area"

Ah, I see what you mean. However, I think it's worth repeating just what a blow it would be if the pings had to be discounted.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-19 07:08:46 and read 71853 times.

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 28):
Any refugees being forced to return to China would've been revealed with a background check.

do you really believe that? after 12 days I don't believe a word now what they say, if these people are of high interest to China, do you think they will tell us that? of course they will say it's all rosy they may even been flown out with false names or not even on the manifest, i wished that article was still live on website, because they mentioned that theses things were done before

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: IADCA
Posted 2014-03-19 07:15:01 and read 71205 times.

Quoting A380Heavy (Reply 26):
I don't know if this has been posted but I was sent the link by an opponent in a game of Word Feud:

Chris Goodfellow - MH370 A different point of view. Pulau Langkawi 13,000 runway.

Seems fairly plausible.

It's been posted and discussed extensively as to why it is wildly implausible.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: psolk
Posted 2014-03-19 07:15:04 and read 71163 times.

I had asked this in the last thread but it got lost in the lock. With reports that the FMC flight plan was manually changed before or after the final communication to ATC I would like to know how they would know when the FMC inputs were made?? Would they know when exec was hit? How do they know what inputs were made at what time?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: gatorman96
Posted 2014-03-19 07:15:23 and read 71147 times.

Quoting capri (Reply 31):
do you really believe that? after 12 days I don't believe a word now what they say, if these people are of high interest to China, do you think they will tell us that? of course they will say it's all rosy they may even been flown out with false names or not even on the manifest, i wished that article was still live on website, because they mentioned that theses things were done before

Do you believe that any intel agency took China's word and didn't do their own background investigation? They have run all the names on the MH370 manifest against their own databases.

If China believed these refugees left the country illegally, I don't see why they would use fake names and I believe Malaysia would be complicit in deporting any refugees back to China. No need for fake names.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-19 07:15:37 and read 71558 times.

http://news.sky.com/story/1228252/mi...aysia-jet-chaos-at-news-conference

this is how the press conference is becoming like??
Will there be anymore scrutiny in future days, and if someone coming forward to tell the press something happened on ground before takeoff, will they be stopped or harrassed?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-19 07:19:48 and read 70942 times.

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 34):
If China believed these refugees left the country illegally, I don't see why they would use fake names and I believe Malaysia would be complicit in deporting any refugees back to China. No need for fake names.

well this is I want to raise as an issue maybe they are an accomplice and they are both covering it up
here is a quote i saved from the article

"These people will refuse to acknowledge Chinese citizenship to avoid being forcibly repatriated," said Kayum Masimov, president of the Montreal-based Uyghur Canadian Society. "They will simply refuse to talk. They fear for their safety."

Human Rights Watch spokesman Phil Robertson said when Uygurs "try to flee overseas, Beijing often pursues them relentlessly". He added: "Over the past few years, there have been several serious incidents in Cambodia, Malaysia and Thailand where China has used its influence to demand Uygur refugees and asylum seekers be returned against their will to China."

link no longer works, no wonder why??

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/articl...fficking-camp-may-face-deportation

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-19 07:23:48 and read 70458 times.

Quoting capri (Reply 35):

How do you think the authorities in the UK would react to a protest at an AAIB press conference?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-19 07:25:51 and read 70289 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 37):
How do you think the authorities in the UK would react to a protest at an AAIB press conference?

in UK relatives will not need to raise attention like that to speak to the Media, they will have free will to express anger, but these were tried to be shut up

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: chieft
Posted 2014-03-19 07:27:36 and read 70197 times.

The information situation hasn't changed since MH370 disappeared: We know, that we know nothing except, that a B777-200ER with about 300 souls disappeared from the sky on 08.03.14.

The is no proof for any theory or rumours. We are getting since then contradicting informations only.

Possibly do the governments and secret services know more and this is a classical secret service operation by providing misleading information to the public.

Again: The only thing which is sure is, that we do not know anything about what happened.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-19 07:29:32 and read 70300 times.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 19):
I think the Maldives are much closer to KL than Beijing.

You're missing the point. The last SATCOM ping was on the calculated arcs 7.5 hours after departure from KUL. They could not have reached the Maldives from that point with whatever fuel remained.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 07:30:25 and read 70026 times.

Quoting psolk (Reply 33):
With reports that the FMC flight plan was manually changed before or after the final communication to ATC

That apparently has been debunked at the latest press conference. Depends, though, on how much of what the Malaysians say in press conferences you're willing to believe

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: PanAmPaul
Posted 2014-03-19 07:31:37 and read 70071 times.

Still a bit unclear about the deleted data from the simulator.

Is it common to delete logs? I don't use my sim enough to know.

Quote:
Officials said that they had recruited “local and international expertise” to examine the flight simulator and that data had been deleted on February 3, over a month prior to the disappearance of Flight 370.

The deleted data was reported to be logs from the games....

above from

Malaysia Air Investigation Turns to Missing Data on Flight Simulator


.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-19 07:39:53 and read 69272 times.

Quoting PanAmPaul (Reply 42):
Still a bit unclear about the deleted data from the simulator.

Is it common to delete logs? I don't use my sim enough to know.

In my fs9 I don't even have logs checked, so if they are talking about autosaving flights, well that's another story, it depends on which FS they talking about, from memory fs9 you need an add-on to use auto save it doesn't come as default

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: CrimsonChin
Posted 2014-03-19 07:42:16 and read 69165 times.

Quoting capri (Reply 7):

While not exactly predicting what happened, a psychic said in a few days, people would be seen crawling out of the jungle in a remote area, which was supposed to be the passenger from this flight I guess. Of course the prediction was made sometime last week, and "few days" expired last weekend.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: asetiadi
Posted 2014-03-19 07:44:32 and read 69030 times.

when the pilot said " all right, good night " can we check whether he said the same thing on his previous flight about the same time as well ? this way we can know and compare and to indicate whether this is his normal pattern or something else.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-19 07:47:28 and read 68682 times.

Quoting asetiadi (Reply 45):

that's what everybody is waiting from investigators, but apparently thay are not willing to share much, also they brought up ideas to ask previous cabin crews aboutpilots' habits, like leaving door open, letting people in cockpit etc....

[Edited 2014-03-19 07:48:14]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 07:48:35 and read 68473 times.

Quoting asetiadi (Reply 45):
when the pilot said " all right, good night " can we check whether he said the same thing on his previous flight about the same time as well ? this way we can know and compare and to indicate whether this is his normal pattern or something else.

And if on previous occasions he said "OK good night" or "all right good morning" what do we conclude?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-19 07:48:38 and read 68562 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 40):
You're missing the point. The last SATCOM ping was on the calculated arcs 7.5 hours after departure from KUL. They could not have reached the Maldives from that point with whatever fuel remained.

Oh I totally understand the point about the satcom last ping. For several days I have been asking questions about the estimation method, its margin of error, arcs derived from previous pings and maybe some confirmation of calibration through pinging other targets of opportunity in the region.

But until that is made totally clear and transparent, I am suggesting that we should not brush off other data (e.g. sightings) just because they do not fit the current "official" theory that may be preferred by some.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: asetiadi
Posted 2014-03-19 07:58:21 and read 67696 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 47):
And if on previous occasions he said "OK good night" or "all right good morning" what do we conclude?

that this is his normal practice. If he never said that words on any of his previous flights...then this can be something that we have to take a look. Since we dont have much clue right now, the only sensible way is to find pattern.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: GiveMeABreak
Posted 2014-03-19 07:59:04 and read 68129 times.

zoomed in map 2234 Tomnod posted in Thread 36 by Tapir

http://www.airliners.net/uf/view.fil...?id=194863&filename=phpglNaPz.jpeg

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: JAL
Posted 2014-03-19 08:10:45 and read 66583 times.

For the plane to be missing after all this time, is really weird.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: dc9northwest
Posted 2014-03-19 08:13:20 and read 66530 times.

Quoting GiveMeABreak (Reply 50):
zoomed in map 2234 Tomnod posted in Thread 36 by Tapir

http://www.airliners.net/uf/view.fil...?id=194863&filename=phpglNaPz.jpeg

Interesting. Do giant squid live in these waters?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: gatorman96
Posted 2014-03-19 08:13:50 and read 66584 times.

Quoting GiveMeABreak (Reply 50):
zoomed in map 2234 Tomnod posted in Thread 36 by Tapir

http://www.airliners.net/uf/view.fil...?id=194863&filename=phpglNaPz.jpeg

Waves breaking. This is out in open ocean: No Gulf's or Strait's where the water is relatively calm in comparison. I've looked at a few tiles on this particular map and see wave action/cresting all over the place, which, in turn, may look like debris.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-19 08:19:24 and read 65953 times.

This might have been pointed before, but the change in flight path seems to have been relayed through the ACARS system before it stopped transmitting as per NYT:

"The Times said the changes made to the plane's direction through the Flight Management System were reported back to a maintenance base by ACARS, according to an American official."

Full article in the The Straits Times: http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-...changed-cockpit-computer-report-20

To me, seems like authentic information. This could be why news outlets haven't backed out of this story.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: falconkutscher
Posted 2014-03-19 08:24:51 and read 65375 times.

There was a lot of speculation in this forum before, how far a 777 could fly / which point in the world it could reach, if it landed on a remote place here or a remote place there etc. etc..., being refueled and used as a weapon.

So IF it landed successfully and IF it was hidden and camouflaged successfully so far and IF it could be refueled without being noticed by somebody, I think it could reach any place in the world. If I would be a bad guy and like to get the maximum endurance possible, I would probably strap out all the unnecessary weight (seats, galleys, lavatories, emergency slides / life rafts, landing lights, ....) and replace all the weight with additional fuel tanks. It should be easy to connect the additional fuel-tanks with the fuel system of the aircraft - the difficult part would only be to certify the systems. Something a potential terrorist would most probably not pay a lot of attention at (the certification).

I am quit sure, there are some specialists here among us, who could make a rough calculation, how much weight one could get out of the aircraft by removing just everything you don't need to just fly the aircraft from A to B. If you replace all that weight with fuel, how far could the aircraft fly?

Gentlemen, start your calculation - who's first to have a clue?

Have a nice day everybody,

FK

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: MIAspotter
Posted 2014-03-19 08:29:18 and read 64943 times.

I have a couple of questions...

If we throw in another ¨suicide by flight crew¨ scenario, what are the chances of the Cpt or F/O switching off the CVR and the FDR? can they be switched off? I guess being electrical systems they could, perhaps one of them switched them off (or pulled the fuse) rendering the plane untraceable in the event of ditching.

We all know FDR´s have beacons that activate as soon as they get in contact with water (which was the case of AF447) but do the 777 have the same systems?

MIAspotter.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: chieft
Posted 2014-03-19 08:29:42 and read 64958 times.

If the aircraft has been hijacked and landed somewhere, I wonder, what the purpose of this hijacking is?

Usually hijackers claim something; so do certain political motivated groups, which might be involved.

And in the end, I wonder how they manage to supply about 300 souls with the necessary water and food - and all that without being spotted by anybody.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: psolk
Posted 2014-03-19 08:30:22 and read 64763 times.

Quoting capri (Reply 43):

Depends which Sim and which files they are referring to. In FSX it is not unusual to delete any unnecessary files as the Sim is 32 bit technology in a 64 bit world and suffers from serious memory/virtual address space issues resulting in Out of memory errors. They haven't been specific as to WHAT files were deleted.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-19 08:31:50 and read 64859 times.

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 54):
"The Times said the changes made to the plane's direction through the Flight Management System were reported back to a maintenance base by ACARS, according to an American official."

My hunch is that this flight change plan was transmitted at the 1:07 am ACARS report, which was the last transmission. It is now established that 1:07am was the last transmission, but now the contents of that is trickling out.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-19 08:33:07 and read 64509 times.

Quoting MIAspotter (Reply 56):
can they be switched off?

yes

Quoting MIAspotter (Reply 56):
We all know FDR´s have beacons that activate as soon as they get in contact with water (which was the case of AF447) but do the 777 have the same systems?

yes

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: flood
Posted 2014-03-19 08:33:15 and read 64771 times.

Quoting GiveMeABreak (Reply 50):
zoomed in map 2234 Tomnod posted in Thread 36 by Tapir

Based on the coordinates, that appears to be off the Vietnamese coast... seems rather unlikely at this point.

Quoting capri (Reply 36):
link no longer works, no wonder why??

Because you're pasting a corrupted link. The article's still there... nothing fishy going on  http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/articl...fficking-camp-may-face-deportation

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: pvjin
Posted 2014-03-19 08:36:16 and read 64102 times.

Quoting psolk (Reply 58):
Depends which Sim and which files they are referring to. In FSX it is not unusual to delete any unnecessary files as the Sim is 32 bit technology in a 64 bit world and suffers from serious memory/virtual address space issues resulting in Out of memory errors. They haven't been specific as to WHAT files were deleted.

Or could be just some scenery / aircraft addons that didn't work as intended and got removed because of that.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 08:38:20 and read 64087 times.

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 54):
This might have been pointed before, but the change in flight path seems to have been relayed through the ACARS system before it stopped transmitting as per NYT:

"The Times said the changes made to the plane's direction through the Flight Management System were reported back to a maintenance base by ACARS, according to an American official."

Full article in the The Straits Times: http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-...changed-cockpit-computer-report-20

To me, seems like authentic information. This could be why news outlets haven't backed out of this story.

The NST article looks like Monday's information. Apparently today's press conference debunked the idea that new FMS waypoints entered were transmitted with the 1:07L ACARS transmission.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-19 08:43:45 and read 64747 times.


Sanity Check - 3/19/2014 15:00Z
There is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage"

Format updates.
Thanks to those to IM'd me about the length and format. The consensus was most data, delete/simplify old and but highlight changes.
I've implemented this change in this report.
New/Changes lines will have this background color. All changes are relative to the previous Sanity Check.
Minor wording/grammar/spelling changes are NOT highlighted.
When I simplified/consolidated a section - I noted it but did not mark the deletions.

3/19/2014 15:00Z update since last Sanity Check.
The facts have not changed much. The a/c has not been found.
I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
Significant updates to ADS-C/Way-points/FMS Programing.
Update on Maldives.
Simplified/consolidates some sections that were redundant.

First a synopsis (dropped some old 'breaking news' items)
The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local.
Reports surfaced yesterday that the ship either:
Turned before the last voice transmission - or-
Had new way-points entered before the last voice transmission.
See ADS-C/FMS/Way-points sections.
The last comms were "All right, good night" transmitted to Malaysia at hand-off to Vietnam control. Vietnam was not contacted. It has been reported it was the First Officer's voice.
NOTE: Saying "good night" or "so long" or "see you" is very common for hand-offs.
The transponder stopped transmitting at 1:21 - loss of secondary radar.
There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
The validity of the 45K reports is being questioned.
There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Strait and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does NOT identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.
These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satellite.
Corridor one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
Corridor two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.
We have no ELT signal detected.
While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
Debris reported by Greek oil tanker has already been reported as not relevant.
Recent reports attributed to the FBI that the plane 'could have landed' and sent a satellite signal from the ground appear to be just confirming what we already knew - that the SATCOM pings could come from an a/c in flight, or powered up on the ground.
There have been no reports that a Rolls Royce EH report was sent upon landing.
Recent report from the Maldives (island Kuda Huvadhoo) of a low flying aircraft at 6:15am on the 8th. Reported as not valid..

Time-line (from CNN)
1.07 am - Last ACARS transmission.
1.19 am - Last verbal communication "All right, good night" from the plane; believed to be the co-pilot
1.21 am - Transponder stopped transmitting (turned off or failed)
1.30 am - Civilian (primary) radar lost contact
1.37 am - Expected ACARS transmission; not received
2.15 am - Last military primary radar contact
8.11 am - Last (hourly) satellite handshake


ACARS
Some deletions in this section to simplify..
ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, including navigation, operations, maintenance, etc to ATC and maintenance facilities.
ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
This last fact (only EHM) is somewhat questions because of 3/18 reports of new way-points being programmed. This would require ADS-C
ACARS communicates via VHF, HF or SATCOM. The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM, HF or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
The last ACARS transmission was at 1:07. The next was expected at 1:37 and was not received. This means ACARS communication was disabled between those times. This could be action by the flight-deck crew or system failure.

ACARS data from MH370
The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
The Rolls Royce page indicates that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, consistent with the 1st two.
The last engine health report was received at 1:07am. The next was expected at 1:37 am and was not received. This indicates that the transmission of ACARS data was disabled between 1:07 and 1:37, but not when during that period.
The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
There seems to be some indication that ADS-C data with way-point information was included in the last ACARS report.
This also seems to have been dismissed by the Malaysian authorityies today (!!)

ADS-C Tutorial (short).
ADS-C stands for Aircraft Dependent Surveillance - Contract.
The "Dependent" is because it "depends" on the aircraft taking action - as opposed to "independent" like radar..
Contract means there must be a "contract" or "agreement" set up by the controllers an/or crew to send information.
ADS-C is not required to be used.
ADS-C can be programed to report periodically, on demand, on event. It can be initiated by the crew in an emergency.
Various data groups can be sent. The one relevant to this discussion is the Predicted Route Group which includes ETA, altitude, lat/long at next way-point and next+1 way-point.
Prior to 3/18 we had no information that ADS-C was being used, however on 3/18 it was reported that we "know" that new way-points were entered in the FMS prior to LOS.
The only way we know of for this information to be available to authorities is if the ACAR's report at 1:07 included the "Predicted Route Group."
ADS-C is transmitted via ACARS which can use SATCOM, VHF or HF.
ADS-C does not transmit via transponder (thanks for that correction)
A good tutorial on ADS-C is available at http://prezi.com/pcuvxhcklsda/ads-c-overview/

Way-point Entry Data.
On 3/18 authorities reported that new way-points had been entered into the a/c FMS BEFORE the last communication at 1:19.
This information could only be provided by ADS-C in the 1:07 ACARS report.
It was also reported that the aircraft had already turned off course prior to 1:19.
That seems inconsistent with secondary radar data which did not show a course change.
Opinion: I believe "experts" are confusing new way-points being programed and executed.
This is consistent with statements by several "experts" who seem to be really "experts"
It was noted that pilots sometimes program way-points but never execute (fly to them).
After take-off way-points are changed in the cockpit. Experts say non-pilots can't do it, but, in fact, it is not hard and many 'simulator' people do it all the time.
Summary:
Reports are that new way-points (off course) were added to the FMS after takeoff (or perhaps just before).
This information would come from ADS-C in the last ACARS report at 1:07.
This requires flight deck access pointing at either the crew or a breech of cockpit security.
All of this data seems to be based on the same NYT report that is being repeated.
We have not heard if the "new" way-points match those reported earlier in the primary radar track.

Way-point Tracks
A series of way-points reported that match the primary radar tracks in/near Malacca Strait.
These way-points line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just coincidentally along the path.
A 777 can be programed to follow a series of way-point automatically - this is normal operating procedure and a 777 pilot would need no extra practice/training to do it. (Relevant to pilot flight simulator ownership)

SATCOM
SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR.
Big version: Width: 720 Height: 516 File size: 199kb
Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.
North Corridor
Big version: Width: 1024 Height: 768 File size: 114kb
.
South Corridor
Big version: Width: 1024 Height: 768 File size: 71kb
We do not know if these corridors are defined by the last SATCOM ping, or multiple pings.
We cannot distinguish if the a/c was flying or parked on the ground (powered up) when these pings were sent.
We have not been told how the distance from IOR was estimated - it could be signal strength or time of flight (signal propagation time).Opinion: as an EE I think signal strength is unlikely - it would depend on things such as a/c orientation. Time of flight - which is how GPS works - seems more likely - however others have pointed out this requires precise timing.
NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.

SATCOM Pings
The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites (hourly). These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.
SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.
Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible corridors have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
SATCOM pings would be sent as long as the system (aircraft) was power up and withing coverage area. So, on the ground, if powered up (thanks to mandala499).
People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.
Recent news about the fact that the plane could have landed really appears to be just a restatement of known data.
Specifically - the SATCOM pings could have been sent from an aircraft powered, but landed - or from an aircraft in flight.
Clarification: The key is the system is powered, whether by engines, apu or shore line (on the ground).
Again: These pings to not contain ANY data about the aircraft position, speed, altitude, etc.
The 'location' data inferred from the SATCOM pings is based analysis of those signals which gives an approximate distance from the satellite to the a/c.
Since the satellite is in geosynchronous orbit (~22,000 miles), the difference in distance between a flying aircraft and one on the ground is probably not measurable.

Fire Theory (Was Cargo and Lithium Batteries)
OPINION: I've tended to discount this based on my belief as a FF that the a/c could not continue to fly for 7+ hours. However, recent discussions have caused me to re-evaluate that.
Regarding the fire source:
One hypothesis that has been presented is that a fire broke out incapacitated the crew/passengers or caused hypoxia that did so.
(See http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/16/opinio...er-malaysia-flight-370/)
The hypothesis is:
A fire broke out causing the crew to disable multiple systems (or disabled them itself)
The crew was successful in containing/extinguishing the fire - but then was disable due to smoke and/or hypoxia.
The a/c, not on autopilot, continued to fly till fuel starvation occurred.
Key to this theory is that the aircraft, not on autopilot and not controlled, could remain in stable flight.
For most a/c- this would not be possible. But for the 777 it may - provided the flight control systems did not revert to a degraded state.
Specifically - the 777 will self trim (pitch up/down) to maintain speed. As long as these pitch up/down excursions did not cause stall (too high) or CFIT (crash), the a/c could fly.
The 777 also has bank protections - so banks induced by trim/turbulence would be damped and unlike a non FBW plane that may spiral in - the 777 could conceivable continue flying.
This is by no means proven or accepted, but it seems credible considering the advanced flight controls of an aircraft like the 777 as compared to a non-FBW aircraft.
This does not explain any purposeful heading changes except perhaps the first one which could be a turn to return to safety by the crew.
Other turns that appear to be FMS driven would be just happenstance.
It would be very interesting to hear Boeing's take on this - or to experiment with a 777.
There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening (though this has recently been weakly denied)
There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
The hold of a passenger a/c like the 777 is protected with Halon and detectors - so a fire in the hold would be detected and suppressed.
A fire in the hold is unlikely to impact flight systems or EE bay. Freight a/c are different (thanks Pihero)
Fire suppression systems in the 777 include: Engines, APU, Cargo Holds, Toilets and portable extinguishers in Cabin/Galleys, Flight Deck, Crew Rest. Unprotected - EEbay and Wheel wells.(thanks Pihero)

Hypoxia and Pressurization
There has been lots of speculation about loss of pressurization in the aircraft and what that would do to passengers and crew.
IMPORTANT NOTE: all of this applies to cabin pressure - not the pressure outside.Just climbing to 45K would not exposed the passengers to that altitude - the aircraft would have to be depressurized.
In the case of loss of cabin pressure - O2 mask would deploy automatically.
The pilots cannot disable this above 13,500 feet - they can release the masks.
Passengers masks would last 12-20 minutes. Portable crew (FA) bottles ~30minutes. Cockpit crew longer.
Time of useful consciousness (not to loss of consciousness) will range from 1-3 minutes at 30K to 9-15 seconds at 43K. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_useful_consciousness)
above 40,000 ft cabin altitude - positive pressure oxygen is required - passenger masks do not do this and would not be effective.
Because of this the a/c must be certified able to descend and pilots demonstrate an emergency descent to ~10,000 ft in 2 minutes.
The actual regulation is that passengers cannot be exposed to a cabin altitude of more than 25K for more than 2 minutes, or more than 40K for any time. (A380 got an exception to this rule.)

Cabin depressurizing by Pilots (this is not as solid as I would like in terms of facts).
NOTE: Above 40K passenger masks are ineffective - positive pressure O2 is required.
Question: Can the pilots 'depressurize' the plane? Yes.
The FAA regulations state the a/c "must be designed so that occupants will not be exposed to cabin pressure altitudes in excess of 15,000 feet (4,600 m) after any probable failure condition in the pressurization system"
So for normal 'failures' - no, the cabin will remain below 15K.
However, per member mandala499 the pilots could: 1) Open outflow valves, 2) turn off bleed air. The cabin would then depressurize to current altitude.
I have no data on how quickly this would happen - but I think it would take minutes at least.
Let's investigate the sequence required and how that is related to the reported "climb to 45K":
1) Pilots (or whomever is in control) switches to manual pressurization, turns off bleed, opens outflow valves.
2) Cabin altitude climbs above 13,500 and passenger masks deploy - there is no way to prevent that. At that point passengers and cabin crew know.
3) Presuming the pilots do not descent - passengers O2 will last 12-20 minutes. After that, depending on the cabin altitude they will loose effective consciousness (not loose consciousness, but effective consciousness).
4) Cabin crew O2 will run out.
5) During this time, the flight crew O2 will operate (and last longer)
6) At some point - depending on cabin altitude - those not on O2 will die (no other way to say it).

The question becomes - how long would this sequence take?
Below 40K cabin altitude - and once the cabin is depressurized- minimum 12-30 minutes for all passengers and cabin crew to become disabled.
Above 40K cabin altitude - I do not know - w/o positive pressure oxygen people will loose effective consciousness in seconds.
With O2, but not positive pressure - will this be extended?
If you descend below 40K with non positive pressure O2 masks still operating - people may recover depending on duration of hypoxia?
Summary:
It appears flight crew (or knowledgeable hijackers) could depressurize the cabin and disable all.
O2 masks would deploy so passengers and cabin crew would know.
This would not be an instantaneous procedure - the biggest factor is how long would it take to depressurize the a/c.

CRV/FDR Data
The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
The pinger operates at 37.5KHz 106.5dp re 1μPa. (thanks k83713)
Maximum depth of beacon detection in Normal Conditions: 1-2km
Maximum depth of beacon detection in Good Conditions: 4-5km
Localising a pinger from the surface in shallow water is relatively easy, as described above. In deep water, the detection equipment should be installed on a self-propelled underwater vehicle, presupposing that the position is already known to within the maximum 2-3km detection range.
More Info:http://www.hydro-international.com/i...Deepwater_Black_Box_Retrieval.html
The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.

ELT
The ELT, or emergency locater transmitter is mounted in the rear of the aircraft - difficult to access in flight.
The ELT is battery powered - independent built in power source. It is this source that is suspect in causing the 787 fire at Heathrow.
The ELT will be trigged by G forces in a crash. It will not operate under water.
The ELT can be triggered from the cockpit - it is a hardwired switch not dependent on computer systems.
The ELT transmits on the guard frequency (VHF) and on 406MHz to satellites. If it had been triggered (above water), satellites would have heard it and been able to locate the a/c.
Clarification: there are additional manual ELT's in the cabin that can be activated by crew members, but do not include g-force sensing.

Primary versus Secondary Radar (brief tutorial)
Primary radar is based on the original military usage. It sends out a strong (KW to MW) signal and looks for a reflection from something.
Primary radar provides distance and location. Comparing returns speed can be determined. Strength of return can indicate size.
Stealth a/c and ships are designed to absorb or miss-direct the reflection so primary radar cannot see them.
Primary radar does not depend on the transponder, so turning off a transponder will not make an a/c disappear from primary.
Primary radar is less prevalent than secondary - and more typically military tho ATC's do use it.
Secondary Radar is really not Radar in the defined sense. It is directional communication.
In secondary radar a directional signal is sent out (much less powerful than primary). Any a/c with a transponder that receives it will respond (the transponder responds) with information about the aircraft.
Combined with the direction of the outgoing beam, the time of flight information and returned information, the a/c location and identity (and other info depending on the mode) is returned.
Secondary radar is the primary method used by ATC.
If the transponder fails or is turned off - secondary radar will not see the a/c.
In the case of MH370
The transponder was turned off - so the a/c disappeared from secondary (ATC) radar.
A target was tracked west, then northwest using primary radar. That target was correlated with SATCOM pings help determine it was MH370.

Airworthiness Directive
The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna

Aircraft Type and Fuel State
The aircraft was a Boeing 777-200ER. MTOW 656,000 lbs, 301 3 class passengers (standard Boeing Config - does not reflect MH specific config.)
The aircraft could land in 6000 ft, or much less at high risk. As little as 3000ft has been stated, but it could not take off from there.
The aircraft would need a hard surface to land - this is heavier that has been done on steel matts.
It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.
The aircraft should have been able to fly about 30 minutes after the last SATCOM ping at 8:11.
The figure at this link show max range for the 777-200ER. NOTE: MH370 was not fueled for this range. http://www.boeing.com/assets/pdf/com.../777_range_singapore.pdf

Search Areas (including those that have be halted)
Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
West over the Malacca strait
North west of Malacca strait
Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
It appears the north loci is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.
Today it seems the south route is being focused on - but there is confusion.
The search area are shrinking due to improved intelligence.
The USS Kidd has been pulled off, but other US resources are operating.

Mobile phones
We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not getting us anywhere.
UPDATE: This subject continues to be discussed. But, we have had no reports of cell phones registering with towers - we are in a loop here.

Theories and Conspiracy Theories
Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
There are lots of theories out there - some clearly "conspiracy based" some just factual. Often it is hard to distinguish.
Here are a few.
A fire broke out that incapacitated passengers and crew - but allowed to aircraft to fly on it's own till starvation.
Corollary to this - the fire would have to disable comms, or cause the crew to disable comms in an attempt to fight it.
Corollary to this - the fire drove the pilots out of the cockpit.
Corollary to this - the fire disabled comms, nav and systems, and the crew - still alive - got lost trying to return.
The a/c was hijacked and flown to a remote strip to be used in a future terrorist act.
Corollary to this - The breadth of the countries searching alone makes this problematic, but it is not impossible.
The aircraft "shadowed" either a KLM or SIA aircraft to hide from radar then turned off the track and landed.
Questions raised - lot of discussion about if this was possible.
A mechanical failure depressurized the a/c and disabled the crew/passengers either rapidly or without their knowledge.
Corollary to this - What disabled comms?
One of the pilots hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).
The plane was hijacked, either with or without crew involvement.
Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data. Opinion: As an engineer who has worked with Freescale - I find that unsupportable. Companies send groups of employees around all the time. While many companies have policies about the # of executives on a flight - that typically is not enforced on regular employees.
There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. This would require involvement of lots of people on the ground. Why not steal it on the ground.
The plane was full of undeclared gold.Gold is very heavy - what would you declare the cargo as?
The US hijacked the 777 using on board FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcia (this one wins the insanity case).
Related: There has been a claim by counter terrorist expert that this could be a "cyber hijack" - a malicious attack of a FBW a/c. I don't know where to go with this - only reporting it because I'm trying to stay ahead of the next craze. Opinion: (speaking as an EE) this is the stuff dreams are made of (bad dreams).

Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).
The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
To address the data on a few of these:
1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
Note - there has been some discussion that the pilot used this for training of accomplices.
3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue.

IN summary what we know is.
The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
It seems we have data that says that way-points (undefined as yet) were added to the FMS prior to the 1:07 ACARS report.
There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
Hourly SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

Additional thoughts.
A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.


That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1


[Edited 2014-03-19 09:42:46]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-19 08:48:51 and read 63160 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 63):
The NST article looks like Monday's information. Apparently today's press conference debunked the idea that new FMS waypoints entered were transmitted with the 1:07L ACARS transmission.

Hmmm!! WHat next now?!! SO much info, myth, etc. in this. That will be debunking of two highly reported items almost back to back:

1. The "event" unfolded before copilot's last message.
2. The route change keyed in before copilot's message.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rotating14
Posted 2014-03-19 08:48:59 and read 63112 times.

I'm curious to know if this flight splashed softly in the ocean, how long would it take to sink to the ocean floor? I'm thinking of the US Airways flight that ditched in the Hudson River.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-19 08:56:26 and read 62365 times.

Quoting flood (Reply 61):

Yesterday was different link than today
By the way, anything with this story of mh370 cld be fishy, so don't discount anything

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-19 08:56:58 and read 62670 times.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 66):

I'm curious to know if this flight splashed softly in the ocean, how long would it take to sink to the ocean floor? I'm thinking of the US Airways flight that ditched in the Hudson River.

It has been suggested that a successful ditching with the 777 is wildly unlikely because of the size of the engines. The life rafts have ELTs and would have been activated by someone when deployed. How long it would take to sink I imagine would depend on how much fuel it had. Air is less dense than fuel. I don't think anyone's tried to sink a 777 and I don't think any of us have access to any computational models that would be accurate enough.

It is incredibly unlikely that it landed in the water intact.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: flood
Posted 2014-03-19 09:03:12 and read 61862 times.

Quoting capri (Reply 67):
Yesterday was different link than today

I had posted your link from yesterday.
http://tinyurl.com/qbemlvv

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: PacNWjet
Posted 2014-03-19 09:03:48 and read 62040 times.

Quoting chieft (Reply 57):
If the aircraft has been hijacked and landed somewhere, I wonder, what the purpose of this hijacking is?

Usually hijackers claim something; so do certain political motivated groups, which might be involved.

As someone posted in a previous thread, sometimes actions speak louder than words. The disappearance of the airplane could be the action that speaks these words:

"We made a plane disappear. You (our enemies) don't know how we made it happen. We could make it happen again. Be afraid."

And hence, terror is created without speaking a word.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 09:09:45 and read 61420 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 64):
It seems we have data that says that way-points (undefined as yet) were added to the FMS prior to the 1:07 ACARS report.

But what about Dalavia's post 180 in the previous part regarding today's press conference:

"In the press conference, it was repeatedly referred to as a 'search and rescue' operation.

It was confirmed that no way points has been entered for MH370 beyond IGARI to Beijing."

BTW, thanks again for keeping us all sane. I know it's a big task.

[Edited 2014-03-19 09:10:32]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: CARST
Posted 2014-03-19 09:11:41 and read 61176 times.

Quoting PacNWjet (Reply 70):

But that would only make sense if the terror group behind this plan would say "we did it. and you won't find out how we did it.". As long as there is no group stating they did it, most sane people will believe this was a crash due some technical problems or a suicidal pilot or first officer.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: DJM18
Posted 2014-03-19 09:12:11 and read 61167 times.

rcair1:

Thank you again for the sanity check, it is the best summary of this incident and should be posted at the top of each thread so that anyone wanting to post can quickly get up to speed on things...it should actually be made required reading prior to posting  . The idea of highlighting new material is brilliant.

Again, thanks !!!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 09:12:31 and read 61016 times.

Quoting PacNWjet (Reply 70):
"We made a plane disappear. You (our enemies) don't know how we made it happen. We could make it happen again. Be afraid."

This only works if "we" identify themselves.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-19 09:20:36 and read 60481 times.

This

Quoting hivue (Reply 71):
It was confirmed that no way points has been entered for MH370 beyond IGARI to Beijing."BTW, thanks again for keeping us all sane. I know it's a big task.

The exact quote in the press conference according to CNN

Quote:
there is no additional waypoint on MH370's documented flight plan, which depicts normal routing all the way to Beijing.

Source: http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/19/wo...malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html

The quote is vague that we really cannot draw any conclusions on whether waypoints were entered or not, as the word 'documented' can be interpreted in different ways.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: 747megatop
Posted 2014-03-19 09:25:41 and read 60075 times.

Quoting PacNWjet (Reply 70):
don't know how we made it happen.

I think the world pretty much knows how they made it happen (turn off ACARS, transponder and comms. Fly out into a big Ocean with sparse radar coverage or over land with questionable radar coverage). Question is why, who and where.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: IADCA
Posted 2014-03-19 09:30:03 and read 59386 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 74):
This only works if "we" identify themselves.

Why does it require that they identify themselves? If the aim is purely to terrify people (rather than a specific behavioral or political outcome), anonymity is even better than an identified source.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: edmountain
Posted 2014-03-19 09:30:28 and read 59275 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 64):
IN summary what we know is. (This has NOT changed)
• The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
• It seems we have data that says that way-points (undefined as yet) were added to the FMS prior to the 1:07 ACARS report.
• There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
• Hourly SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
• We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

Thanks for the sanity checks.

One trivial note: you say this section has not changed, but you did change it  

Anyway, more importantly, there are several posts on this current thread saying that the data being added to the FMS prior to 0107h has been debunked. Your sanity check says otherwise. Have you debunked the debunking? Are you waiting for more information? Or are things just too fluid?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rotating14
Posted 2014-03-19 09:31:58 and read 59388 times.

http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/am...s-plane-flight-370-update-20140317

I'm not sure if this was posted here but this article sheds light on deleted files from his flight simulator.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: 65mustang
Posted 2014-03-19 09:32:34 and read 59081 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 64):
Clarification: there are additional manual ELT's in the cabin that can be activated by crew members, but do not include g-force sensing.

Great job rcair1 on your sanity check. If it was read by all of the reporters, there would be a lot less confusion. Are these particular ELTs the ones located on the slide/raft in the door? If one was activated at 29500 alt traveling 500mph would it be seen? I read that a GPS that a person uses to navagate a car does not work in a plane because it is moving too fast for satellite triangulation. I know my ipad could not locate satellites on a recent trip. Do these ELTs have the same kind of GPS as used in an automobile and are the ELTs designed to be a locating device stationary on the ground?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-19 09:33:39 and read 59000 times.

Quoting IADCA (Reply 77):
Why does it require that they identify themselves? If the aim is purely to terrify people (rather than a specific behavioral or political outcome), anonymity is even better than an identified source.

Because investigators might not attribute it to terrorism and default to some other explanation blaming it as an isolated incident which would then be slowly forgotten and some changes implemented to prevent it from happening again. The entire point of the attack would be lost and no one would know you even attacked or attribute it to an attack (And the lack of tracking problem would be fixed as well closing the attack route from further exploitation)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: iberiadc852
Posted 2014-03-19 09:34:49 and read 58803 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 74):
Quoting PacNWjet (Reply 70):"We made a plane disappear. You (our enemies) don't know how we made it happen. We could make it happen again. Be afraid."This only works if "we" identify themselves.

And anyway, with so many people willing to concadenate extraordinary coincidences to explain this event and to believe in them, if terrorists actually had this strategy to reivindicate, I think they should feel more than dissapointed.

[Edited 2014-03-19 09:36:48]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-19 09:34:57 and read 58866 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 75):
The quote is vague that we really cannot draw any conclusions on whether waypoints were entered or not, as the word 'documented' can be interpreted in different ways.

It says to me that they have no evidence of any waypoints being programmed into the FMS that would be inconsistent with the expected route to Beijing. I missed the original announcement of this story - is it possible that "an expert" told a reporter that there may have been an ACARS message containing the next two waypoints which would reveal if the FMS had been reprogrammed and this was incorrectly reported?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: sbkom
Posted 2014-03-19 09:35:03 and read 58854 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 64):
Format updates

Thanks rcair1, this is wonderful! These reports (sanity checks) are great help!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-19 09:35:17 and read 59073 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 71):
"In the press conference, it was repeatedly referred to as a 'search and rescue' operation.

It was confirmed that no way points has been entered for MH370 beyond IGARI to Beijing."

BTW, thanks again for keeping us all sane. I know it's a big task.

Yeah - I absolutely don't know what to think.....

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 09:40:26 and read 58333 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 83):
It says to me that they have no evidence of any waypoints being programmed into the FMS that would be inconsistent with the expected route to Beijing

In the press conference they apparently referred to the "flight plan," not the FMS.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 75):
The quote is vague that we really cannot draw any conclusions on whether waypoints were entered or not, as the word 'documented' can be interpreted in different ways.

The Malaysians couldn't be any more confusing if they tried (which may be what they're doing).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-19 09:40:50 and read 58468 times.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 78):
One trivial note: you say this section has not changed, but you did change it  

Dang!

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 80):
Great job rcair1 on your sanity check. If it was read by all of the reporters, there would be a lot less confusion. Are these particular ELTs the ones located on the slide/raft in the door? If one was activated at 29500 alt traveling 500mph would it be seen? I read that a GPS that a person uses to navagate a car does not work in a plane because it is moving too fast for satellite triangulation. I know my ipad could not locate satellites on a recent trip. Do these ELTs have the same kind of GPS as used in an automobile and are the ELTs designed to be a locating device stationary on the ground?

Yes - these ELT's are located in various places, slide/rafts, etc. I think it may vary by aircraft.

I don't know if they would work if activated in flight - but I don't think there is any real problem with them other than, perhaps, getting a signal in/out of the a/c.

Secret - I have turned on the GPS in my Droid while flying commercial. If I sit at the window and hold it at the window - it will lock on just fine.

Maps don't work - because I don't have map data - but if I look at the raw GPS data - I get speed, altitude, lat/long heading - all that stuff.

I think the issue about "car Navigation GPS's" is related to the the mapping functions not the GPS functions.

-rcair1

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: IADCA
Posted 2014-03-19 09:41:51 and read 58266 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 81):
Because investigators might not attribute it to terrorism and default to some other explanation blaming it as an isolated incident which would then be slowly forgotten and some changes implemented to prevent it from happening again. The entire point of the attack would be lost and no one would know you even attacked or attribute it to an attack (And the lack of tracking problem would be fixed as well closing the attack route from further exploitation)

If investigators wrongly attributed it to something other than intentional action (something that they don't seem to be doing), then you could do it again, and if you really wanted to scare people, maybe you would. Perhaps the changes to the tracking problem would have been made by then, maybe not, but either way all that would allow you to do is find the damn plane after they crash it. I think most people who are terrified by terrorists are more afraid of death than they are of not being found afterwards.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: nycdave
Posted 2014-03-19 09:43:54 and read 58157 times.

This may be a stupid question - and/or one already answered. Apologies if it is, but I haven't been able to find it so far.

Regarding the last Inmarsat pings -

1. Since all they could detect was the angle, I'm assuming the "corridors" marked out are simply parts of the full circle that were within the range of the aircraft and the last known position... Correct?

2. If so, where would the rest of the angle-matching arc fall? (I'm assuming they fall out of fuel range for the a/c, but I'd still be curious)

3. How certain can we be that the last ping was along one of these corridors - how accurate can you be determining the correct arc this way? Can atmospheric disturbance/refraction result in a displaced signal?

Thanks anyone who can answer those - or already has! (like many, I've been pretty diligently tracking the threads, but a man's gotta sleep sometime!)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: N328KF
Posted 2014-03-19 09:47:09 and read 57749 times.

Quoting IADCA (Reply 77):
Why does it require that they identify themselves? If the aim is purely to terrify people (rather than a specific behavioral or political outcome), anonymity is even better than an identified source.

I don't know, I think most people are morbidly curious, but don't think that it's a terrorist organization (with what we know.) In such a case, personal fear would be low. If there was some indication that there was a group behind it, then that would be indicative of future threats.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 09:48:43 and read 57576 times.

Quoting nycdave (Reply 89):
Since all they could detect was the angle

All they could detect was distance.

Quoting nycdave (Reply 89):
I'm assuming the "corridors" marked out

They are not corridors. They are sets of possible points where the plane could have been located, only one point of which would be the real place.

Quoting nycdave (Reply 89):
I'm assuming they fall out of fuel range for the a/c,

That, but more importantly they were eliminated based on adjacent satellites in the Inmarsat constellation with overlapping coverage not picking up the 08:11L ping.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-19 09:49:56 and read 57830 times.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 78):
One trivial note: you say this section has not changed, but you did change it  
Quoting hivue (Reply 71):
It was confirmed that no way points has been entered for MH370 beyond IGARI to Beijing."

I snuck in under the 60 minute limit and fixed the error (edmountain) and added a note about the Malasian statement (hivue).

Thanks to all for helping me keep these sanity checks sane.

In particular - thanks to expert members who have been sending me detail and correction via IM.

These sanity checks are the result of collaboration - including speedbird128, mandala499, Pihero, hivue and others.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: IADCA
Posted 2014-03-19 09:52:14 and read 57239 times.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 90):
I don't know, I think most people are morbidly curious, but don't think that it's a terrorist organization (with what we know.) In such a case, personal fear would be low. If there was some indication that there was a group behind it, then that would be indicative of future threats.

I actually agree with you (I don't think it was a group either), but I was just responding to someone questioning why they wouldn't ID themselves - which comes in addition to the obvious point that identification would probably be followed rather quickly by drones, SEALs, and a whole host of other things terrorists tend to want to avoid.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-19 09:56:01 and read 56930 times.

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 80):
Great job rcair1 on your sanity check. If it was read by all of the reporters, there would be a lot less confusion. Are these particular ELTs the ones located on the slide/raft in the door? If one was activated at 29500 alt traveling 500mph would it be seen? I read that a GPS that a person uses to navagate a car does not work in a plane because it is moving too fast for satellite triangulation. I know my ipad could not locate satellites on a recent trip. Do these ELTs have the same kind of GPS as used in an automobile and are the ELTs designed to be a locating device stationary on the ground?

ELTs work anywhere on the planet and have GPS embedded location data as well as being able to be tracked using doppler tracking which should still function even if your traveling quickly. (The sats in LEO which do the doppler tracking are moving even faster and there are GEO sats that can almost instantly pick up on the 406Mhz signal and data, unless your in orbit the doppler effect should be strong enough to localize even without GPS)

(Or in other words the doppler tracking method only breaks down if your relative velocity is zero, no doppler effect, which for GEO sats is true or if your in LEO orbit with the LEO sats would also be true)

(It basically measures the precise frequency of the 406Mhz signal to check for frequency drift due to the high velocity of the sat relative to you and as long as your moving slower than the sat by a good order of magnitude it can figure out where you are using a constellation of sats working the same calculation)

Many phones and iPad like things require internet for something call A-GPS or assisted GPS where the ephemeris and almanac is bootstrapped by mobile network assistance as well as sometimes also providing a precise timestamp and approximate location based on your cell tower location) this usually enables a device to rapidly lock onto GPS. In the air you have none of that and it can take minutes to get a lock if at all. (In my phone you can run GPS in airplane mode and since it is Rx only it doesn't really have any chance of causing problems, I like to keep a track on the flight independent of the IFE map)

To have map navigation work while off network you need an offline map app like backcountry navigator pro or any other map application that lets you download the map titles directly. Some phones and tablets also have problems keeping GPS working without network assistance and can lose the lock for good until you restart the phone due to bugs it seems.

Depending on your device a good GPS receiver with a good internal antenna seems to work even to the second of third seat from the window although pressing the device against the window is the best usually. It also work better if you do not let it get too far (in location and time) from your last lock as it may require a cold fix which can take a long time vs. a warm one which is far faster.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-19 09:56:12 and read 56962 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 86):
n the press conference they apparently referred to the "flight plan," not the FMS.

There's also a Flight Plan in the FMS, which contains the intended route. I doubt there would be any strange points in the flight plan filed by the airline.

Quoting hivue (Reply 86):
he Malaysians couldn't be any more confusing if they tried (which may be what they're doing).

There was a rumour that new waypoints had been programmed into the FMS before they turned off course and contact was lost . In that context the comment doesn't seem confusing to me.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-19 10:00:41 and read 56728 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 87):
Dang!

 

Thank you for the latest Sanity Check! I think the SAR west of Perth in southern Indian Ocean is much more realistic. Hope success and some closure for the loved ones whatever the outcome is.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-19 10:02:04 and read 56357 times.

Quoting IADCA (Reply 88):
If investigators wrongly attributed it to something other than intentional action (something that they don't seem to be doing), then you could do it again, and if you really wanted to scare people, maybe you would. Perhaps the changes to the tracking problem would have been made by then, maybe not, but either way all that would allow you to do is find the damn plane after they crash it. I think most people who are terrified by terrorists are more afraid of death than they are of not being found afterwards.

Not really if the tracking problem is fixed well it will give good indication of problems regardless of the cause before the plane hits the ground/water or even gets lost. Just one firmware update and ELTs could be transmitting a lot earlier in an emergency providing an independent and robust tracking solution that is hard to confuse and hard to disable/break due to its independent power and transmitter with GPS level of precision and alternate means of tracking.

Most people know since 9/11 if terrorists attack you should attack them right away especially in a plane situation. People are more worried about being lost and never being found. (I would be more worried about not ever being found regardless of cause)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: N328KF
Posted 2014-03-19 10:02:10 and read 56401 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 94):
ELTs work anywhere on the planet and have GPS embedded location data as well as being able to be tracked using doppler tracking which should still function even if your traveling quickly.

What are the main reasons the ELT might not have functioned in this case?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 10:03:17 and read 56464 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 95):
There's also a Flight Plan in the FMS, which contains the intended route. I doubt there would be any strange points in the flight plan filed by the airline.

There's a flight plan filed prior to the flight. It's possible that's what was being referred to in the press conference, not what might have been entered new in the FMS during the flight. But we don't know. As I suggested, it's almost as if the Malaysian authorities are going out of their way to obfuscate matters.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: SB6715
Posted 2014-03-19 10:09:00 and read 55998 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 40):
Quoting BackSeater (Reply 19):
I think the Maldives are much closer to KL than Beijing.

You're missing the point. The last SATCOM ping was on the calculated arcs 7.5 hours after departure from KUL. They could not have reached the Maldives from that point with whatever fuel remained.

Except some of the Maldivian islands keep their own local time which is MVT+1, so they could have been passing over the Maldives right around 7.5 hours after departing KUL if the alleged spotters were on MVT+1 time.

They said it was flying low - on its way to ditching?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: auroralives
Posted 2014-03-19 10:11:11 and read 55892 times.

I hate to ask because it's probably buried somewhere in these threads... question is:

Since someone (apparently) disabled the transponder, ACARS, etc... could they not just as easily pulled the CVR/FDR breakers at the same time??

I mean, even if these components are eventually found, what are the chances they will contain anything useful??

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-19 10:12:11 and read 55988 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 99):

Well, in that case all I can say is I don't agree.  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Rara
Posted 2014-03-19 10:13:05 and read 56097 times.

Quoting SB6715 (Reply 100):
Except some of the Maldivian islands keep their own local time which is MVT+1, so they could have been passing over the Maldives right around 7.5 hours after departing KUL if the alleged spotters were on MVT+1 time.

They said it was flying low - on its way to ditching?

Please someone go back in time and make that Maldives thing disappear.

While you're at it, go back even further and make the New Zealand oil rig guy disappear.

Seriously, we're wasting so much time and screen real estate with these things which are obviously false leads.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-19 10:13:27 and read 56004 times.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 98):

What are the main reasons the ELT might not have functioned in this case?

They are not crash survivable and the automatic one requires the plane to pretty much be in one piece or at least the entire section where the ELT is to be intact. The manual activation ones require people to activate and unfortunate as it is normally both the people and manual ELTs are lost in the high energy collision with land/water. Only a relatively gentle crash landing is likely to result in activation or ability to activate an ELT (As one requires the plane to be intact and the other requires survivors).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-19 10:14:41 and read 55753 times.

Quoting auroralives (Reply 101):
Since someone (apparently) disabled the transponder, ACARS, etc... could they not just as easily pulled the CVR/FDR breakers at the same time??

I mean, even if these components are eventually found, what are the chances they will contain anything useful??

if it turns out that the CVR/FDR are disabled is useful information in itself.

[Edited 2014-03-19 10:15:03]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-19 10:15:59 and read 55840 times.

Quoting Rara (Reply 103):

They have been debunked here, debunked officially, ... so old news and invalid and covered in the summary and numerous threads.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: JHwk
Posted 2014-03-19 10:16:03 and read 55874 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 64):
• If you descend below 40K with non positive pressure O2 masks still operating - people may recover depending on duration of hypoxia?

Brain damage and cell damage occurs first. At 40-45,000' you have a PPO2 of 0.03 to 0.04, which would require fairly long exposure to cause asphyxiation; I would imagine in the category of hours.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: SB6715
Posted 2014-03-19 10:18:55 and read 55535 times.

Quoting Rara (Reply 103):
Please someone go back in time and make that Maldives thing disappear.

While you're at it, go back even further and make the New Zealand oil rig guy disappear.

Seriously, we're wasting so much time and screen real estate with these things which are obviously false leads.

So forgetting to check the time zone at the particular island where the alleged spotters were located is completely unlikely given the extreme precision exhibited by the investigators so far?  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: cpw
Posted 2014-03-19 10:26:03 and read 54823 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 104):
They are not crash survivable and the automatic one requires the plane to pretty much be in one piece or at least the entire section where the ELT is to be intact.

Reposting my question from the last thread:

On the Northern route, if the plane managed to make it into Chinese airspace (and that's a *big* "if* in my mind), its fuel supply was exhausted, and it crashed in a very remote location with sufficient velocity to kill the ELT, how much fire would be expected? There's a really large desert under a portion of the northern arc.

If this thing crashed during the dark, in the middle of nowhere, and there was no fire, it seems like it would be almost as difficult to locate it as it would be in the middle of the ocean. I have no clue what type of crater a 777 would leave, but some comments in earlier threads indicated that ELTs have a history of not working in crashes.

The big "if" is whether it could get through Chinese air defense - I have a hard time believing that would be possible - but on the off chance it did, it seems like there wouldn't be much to start a fire if the tanks were empty.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: IADCA
Posted 2014-03-19 10:27:05 and read 54744 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 97):
Not really if the tracking problem is fixed well it will give good indication of problems regardless of the cause before the plane hits the ground/water or even gets lost. Just one firmware update and ELTs could be transmitting a lot earlier in an emergency providing an independent and robust tracking solution that is hard to confuse and hard to disable/break due to its independent power and transmitter with GPS level of precision and alternate means of tracking.

Most people know since 9/11 if terrorists attack you should attack them right away especially in a plane situation. People are more worried about being lost and never being found. (I would be more worried about not ever being found regardless of cause)

Well, no emergency was ever declared in this case, so unless you plan on having the ELT transmitting all the time (or able to be activated by someone not on the plane), it would be no help in preventing exactly this event from occurring again.

As to your personal views on whether or not your body is found or not, those are perfectly fine; mine are just different. And I think you might be wrong about "most people" as well as it applies to the passengers of MH 370. Memory is short, and localism rules. 9/11 was 13 years ago and happened on the other side of the world from the people involved in this incident. I don't know, but I don't think your assumption is a safe one.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rfields5421
Posted 2014-03-19 10:27:52 and read 55035 times.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 66):
I'm curious to know if this flight splashed softly in the ocean, how long would it take to sink to the ocean floor? I'm thinking of the US Airways flight that ditched in the Hudson River.

One important fact to remember is that the water impact of the US Airways aircraft was so severe that it fractured the integrity of the aft aircraft hull. Almost half of the rear pressure bulkhead was torn away - likely more of the bulkhead percentage wise than was torn off by the Asiana crash at SFO.

The unapproved opening of one of the rear passenger doors did not sink that aircraft and only assisted in speeding up the water fill rate. (The US Airways aircraft actually did sink, but it was towed into shallow water before grounding.)

If the B777 had made a similar water landing - it would have sank, but also would have been afloat long enough for an evacuation, and activation of life raft ELTs and substantial floating debris from the cabin.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: 65mustang
Posted 2014-03-19 10:28:28 and read 54693 times.

Long list of Boeing 777 200er specs and safety data here:

http://sharadyadavs.hpage.co.in/777-flight-safety-notes_31205090.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: kevinkevin
Posted 2014-03-19 10:31:56 and read 54775 times.

So as MH370 turned left back towards Malaysia it climbed from FL350 to FL450. Then descended to 5000ft just before the western coast of Malaysia then climbed to FL295. An odd FL to climb to. Which I believe in Keith's theory. However 5000ft just sounds weird so does FL450. The maximum FL must've been around 380/390 considering its weight. How did it get to FL450.

[Edited 2014-03-19 10:32:52]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: 135mech
Posted 2014-03-19 10:42:53 and read 53494 times.

Hello all,

I have tried catching up on these threads but they are too numerous! Just a question (that may have already been covered)...
One report said that they descended to 5,000 feet flight level, so if that were the case, wouldn't that seriously degrade the flight time as the fuel burn would be considerably higher?

Regards to the family and friends of the passengers and crew!
135Mech

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Jetlagged
Posted 2014-03-19 10:43:51 and read 53468 times.

Quoting na (Reply 24):
Sorry, but its your answer that is nonsense. The plane wasnt stopped, not identified, not even detected in time. So, what the logical answer?

This thread has moved so fast I'm having to quote a post of yours in this section, not in Part 26 where the comment originated.

Everything apppeared normal until after the flight left the Malaysian coast. There was no reason to stop it at that time. So your suggestion that this was proof they were unable to track or stop the flight is unfounded.

Quoting na (Reply 24):
If they had no evidence or discarded evidence of a plane flying over their territory for quite some time how do you call it then? Bad equipment, insufficient surveillance, ineffectivemess of the military and so on, a lot comes together. I know I am being simplistic by saying its either incompetence or they were hiding evidence. Deliberately, because thats the bottomline it comes to. I grant them the benefit that they have to deal with a never-before-seen situation.

You said this revelation was an indication of Malaysia's incompetance and that is not the case if they did not have the data. The information about the additional comms from the aircraft came from the USA. We do not know whether the Malaysians had access to that data as well, so we must give them the benefit of the doubt that they did not.

After the plane diverted from its flight plan it was not flying over Malaysian territory so how could they have track it? They had no reason to try and track it for many hours. Also, the transponder was off and primary radar would not be able to positively ID the aircraft, if it could locate it at all.

They aren't hiding evidence as such. Malaysia does not have a free press as we would understand it. They don't normally have to deal with media questioning and scrutiny like this. I don't see this as at all sinister in this case, though the lack of information isn't any comfort for relatives. But then if there is no new information what is there for anyone to tell them?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: 747megatop
Posted 2014-03-19 10:47:55 and read 53133 times.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 111):
but also would have been afloat long enough for an evacuation,

Provided that there was anybody alive (hadn't perished due to the suspected depressurization). Only the perpetrator may have been alive (perhaps injured).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: qualitydr
Posted 2014-03-19 10:55:20 and read 52612 times.

Quoting PanAmPaul (Reply 42):
Is it common to delete logs? I don't use my sim enough to know.

I've flown FS9 and FSX for years, and yes, it's fairly common to delete logs (and much more). The log in FSX is very susceptible to becoming corrupt; this was mentioned earlier. I routinely back up, move and edit my logbook in an attempt (occasionally futile) to keep it whole and working.

It would seem the less you use FSX, the less trouble it is.  

I don't see the simulator as a key finding at this point. Of course, should they find something "interesting" in the deleted files (and this might not be limited to FSX), then my curiosity will be piqued for sure...

QD

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: canyonblue17
Posted 2014-03-19 10:55:44 and read 52397 times.

Why not post a big money reward for finding the aircraft and get all the crazies to go looking for it?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: FltAdmiralRitt
Posted 2014-03-19 10:57:36 and read 52297 times.

It would be useful to find out to compare the following.

The debris field size and density in an deep ocean crash in 3 scenarios.

1) An out of fuel aircraft in uncontrolled dive.

2) An out of fuel (or nearly so) aircraft piloted ditching.

3) a controlled aircraft diving at greater than 45 degrees pitch, plus full engine power near the end of plunge.


I have seen pictures of smaller airliners than 777 break up into 2 or 3 pieces after hitting the ocean.
People like to point out how catastrophic the ditching of Ethopia flight 961, off the african coast.
but that was not a fully prepared or even 'normal ditching' if you have read the accounts of it.

If someone ditched the aircraft after running it out fuel while flying into the southern indian ocean.
, it would at been at least Morning Naultical twilight not Pitch dark necessarily.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-19 11:01:22 and read 52055 times.

Quoting IADCA (Reply 110):
Well, no emergency was ever declared in this case, so unless you plan on having the ELT transmitting all the time (or able to be activated by someone not on the plane), it would be no help in preventing exactly this event from occurring again.

As to your personal views on whether or not your body is found or not, those are perfectly fine; mine are just different. And I think you might be wrong about "most people" as well as it applies to the passengers of MH 370. Memory is short, and localism rules. 9/11 was 13 years ago and happened on the other side of the world from the people involved in this incident. I don't know, but I don't think your assumption is a safe one.

I don't forget 9/11 its basically an event I remember to this day even though it really just was a phone call and radio at the time over a bridge while commuting. Plus that can be fixed in the airplane safety intro they can just say if someone acts suspicious or attacks a crew member or door please take them down.

Also my suggestion on the ELT is for it to go into test mode should the power be cut while in flight or if the transponder is disabled in flight. (Both of these would be abnormal conditions which would warrant transmitting at a reduced rate so that the plane doesn't go dark even accidentally) The installed ELT has automatic methods of activation and a dedicated switch line which can turn it on or put it into test mode just modifying this line to be in series with the manual switch such that upon system failures it can also cause the ELT to go into emergency or test mode automatically would help. Since ELTs usually are lost in a crash anyways them activating beforehand would still be of great or even better assistance than having them stay basically silent.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: na
Posted 2014-03-19 11:02:32 and read 51825 times.

Quoting Jetlagged (Reply 115):

Thread 26 may not be up-to-date as to my current knowlegde or opinion on MH370. Much of the data (especially that coming from the military) is confusing and may lead to wrong reports due to keeping understandable secrecy, including the timing of breaking the news.

Quoting Jetlagged (Reply 115):
They aren't hiding evidence as such. Malaysia does not have a free press as we would understand it. They don't normally have to deal with media questioning and scrutiny like this. I don't see this as at all sinister in this case, though the lack of information isn't any comfort for relatives. But then if there is no new information what is there for anyone to tell them?

I am sure they are not hiding anything that would mean it would delay finding the plane, so much I am with you. But I am also sure they are hiding something, and they must, at least temporary, due to national security reasons or ongoing unclear processes.
One thing though that no one has answered yet is why the Malaysian military did not react in time when they detected an unknown plane overflying their territory all the way, especially as it popped up on the screens of more than one station. No alarm, no information of superiors, no fighters or recce planes being send up. Why? Maybe that happens too often? If so, isnt that telling us something? Maybe its their common practice to do nothing in such case, but I find that quite odd.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-19 11:06:15 and read 51488 times.

Quoting cpw (Reply 109):
On the Northern route, if the plane managed to make it into Chinese airspace (and that's a *big* "if* in my mind), its fuel supply was exhausted, and it crashed in a very remote location with sufficient velocity to kill the ELT, how much fire would be expected? There's a really large desert under a portion of the northern arc.

If this thing crashed during the dark, in the middle of nowhere, and there was no fire, it seems like it would be almost as difficult to locate it as it would be in the middle of the ocean. I have no clue what type of crater a 777 would leave, but some comments in earlier threads indicated that ELTs have a history of not working in crashes.

Not really sure on that one conceivably it would also be very difficult to find but one big advantage a land search has over an ocean one is that the land tends not to make the debris drift around and the actual plane should be on the surface not below the entire ocean. (If you find debris on land even if hard you are bound to find the plane in short notice)

With the many days that have gone by the ocean search is complicated by surface conditions while a land search is still looking for the same area as it won't really move much.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: shortstack81
Posted 2014-03-19 11:08:18 and read 51622 times.

Quoting FltAdmiralRitt (Reply 119):
1) An out of fuel aircraft in uncontrolled dive.

2) An out of fuel (or nearly so) aircraft piloted ditching.

3) a controlled aircraft diving at greater than 45 degrees pitch, plus full engine power near the end of plunge.

SouthAfrican 295 left relatively little debris at the surface but its debris on the seabed was mostly mangled but in one or two compact fields, which suggested that it broke up in flight.

but they had time to call Marutius and declare an emergency.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: nycdave
Posted 2014-03-19 11:11:04 and read 51170 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 91):

Quoting nycdave (Reply 89):
Since all they could detect was the angle

All they could detect was distance.

I would figure that having the one would necessarily give you the other, and have seen both used. Thanks for clarifying.

Quoting hivue (Reply 91):

Quoting nycdave (Reply 89):
I'm assuming the "corridors" marked out

They are not corridors. They are sets of possible points where the plane could have been located, only one point of which would be the real place.

I am well aware that they are not corridors in the ATC sense. Was using "corridors" in quote corresponding to rcair1's "Sanity Check" post which uses the term to refer to the possible locations arcs mapped out by the Inmarsat data.

Quoting hivue (Reply 91):

Quoting nycdave (Reply 89):
I'm assuming they fall out of fuel range for the a/c,

That, but more importantly they were eliminated based on adjacent satellites in the Inmarsat constellation with overlapping coverage not picking up the 08:11L ping.

Ah! That makes a huge amount of sense, thanks - exactly the kind of answer I was looking for!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: IADCA
Posted 2014-03-19 11:12:55 and read 51042 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 120):
Also my suggestion on the ELT is for it to go into test mode should the power be cut while in flight or if the transponder is disabled in flight. (Both of these would be abnormal conditions which would warrant transmitting at a reduced rate so that the plane doesn't go dark even accidentally) The installed ELT has automatic methods of activation and a dedicated switch line which can turn it on or put it into test mode just modifying this line to be in series with the manual switch such that upon system failures it can also cause the ELT to go into emergency or test mode automatically would help. Since ELTs usually are lost in a crash anyways them activating beforehand would still be of great or even better assistance than having them stay basically silent

That's a good, sensible suggestion, and it would definitely help.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rwessel
Posted 2014-03-19 11:19:04 and read 50554 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 64):
• We do not know if these corridors are defined by the last SATCOM ping, or multiple pings.
• We cannot distinguish if the a/c was flying or parked on the ground (powered up) when these pings were sent.
• We have not been told how the distance from IOR was estimated - it could be signal strength or time of flight (signal propagation time).Opinion: as an EE I think signal strength is unlikely - it would depend on things such as a/c orientation. Time of flight - which is how GPS works - seems more likely - however others have pointed out this requires precise timing.

I agree, the only reasonable single point distance estimate with the required accuracy would be measurement of the round-trip time of the signal. Raw signal strength measurements would be far too crude. With some characterization of the SATCOM transceiver on the aircraft, knowing that to within a few tens of microseconds should not be too difficult, leading to an uncertainty of a few miles (at 100us the uncertainty would be about 19 miles). This would provide a "width" to the corridor. Necessarily added to that would be an "slant range error" (to use the DME concept) introduced be the possible variations of the aircraft's altitude (I'm going to assume 0-35kft), which at the angles in question, would be about 40 miles, assuming my calculations are correct.

As to the particular segments of the arc (the "northern" and "southern" corridors. There's been very little satisfactory discussion about how those segments were identified. Unless I've missed it pings hitting (or not) other satellites is problematic because the overlap patterns don't look like they'd really be favorable for that, but...). Another possibility is that the antenna on the satellite has some limited directionality, or more likely the antenna is composed of several segments each with some directionality or phase sensitivity. A limited ability to detect that can definitely create a set of approximate directions. For example, some antenna (when backed by the appropriate hardware) can essentially tell you that direction of the signal is (say) 20 degrees off the axis of either of the two (assuming a two part, cross-shaped antenna), leading to four different lines, and eight different directions. In some designs you can get more or fewer lines and directions, but crude phase/signal strength/direction detection is possible on many receivers, even if they're not designed to support that as a primary function.* For hardware not specifically designed to measure that, there can be a fair error (say +/-10 degrees). A little extra knowledge (like possible ranges of the aircraft) could eliminate many of those, leaving the two arc segments that have been published.

But I think the main point is that we really don't know why just those arc segments have been picked, but I suspect that some limited ability to sense signal direction at the satellite is likely.


*For example, the antenna on a ADF for tracking an NDB is set up to provide a single line, and two directions, and another antenna is used to eliminate one of the two directions. Of course an ADF is optimized for that function.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 11:22:00 and read 50613 times.

Quoting FltAdmiralRitt (Reply 119):
It would be useful to find out to compare the following.

The debris field size and density in an deep ocean crash in 3 scenarios.

Compared to the Indian Ocean all 3 will be miniscule.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: cjg225
Posted 2014-03-19 11:26:35 and read 50287 times.

rcair...

WOW. That is a hell of an effort you've put out for that summary. Thanks a ton. I've been really out of the loop for a few days, so that was incredibly helpful.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: spacecadet
Posted 2014-03-19 11:26:37 and read 50030 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 127):
Compared to the Indian Ocean all 3 will be miniscule.

I assumed he was talking about it being helpful to determine the cause of the accident once the plane is actually found, but I'm not sure.

In terms of search, knowing the size of the debris field is almost irrelevant. All you need to find is one piece of debris to have basically found the plane - or at least know what happened to it. And as far as the families are concerned, that's the really important thing right now.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: dandelany
Posted 2014-03-19 11:29:03 and read 50149 times.

Quoting MIAspotter (Reply 56):
If we throw in another ¨suicide by flight crew¨ scenario, what are the chances of the Cpt or F/O switching off the CVR and the FDR? can they be switched off? I guess being electrical systems they could, perhaps one of them switched them off (or pulled the fuse) rendering the plane untraceable in the event of ditching.
Quoting auroralives (Reply 101):
Since someone (apparently) disabled the transponder, ACARS, etc... could they not just as easily pulled the CVR/FDR breakers at the same time??

I posted about this last night... From an AAIB report on a past incident in a 777-232:

Quote:
Given that the incident happened on stand it is unfortunate that over one hour elapsed before power to the CVR was isolated. Deactivation of the CVR after an accident or incident is part of the published crew procedures. However, the practicalities of isolating the power from the CVR fitted to the B777 are not straightforward since the CVR circuit breaker is located in the electronics bay of the aircraft instead of on the flight deck. Access to the electronics bay from within the aircraft is via a hatch in the cabin floor adjacent to the front left door of the aircraft, alternatively access can be gained from beneath the aircraft via a hatch.
http://www.aaib.gov.uk/cms_resources...ng%20777-232,%20N864DA%2010-06.pdf
(page 15)

So the pilots presumably would not have been able to shut off the CVR/FDR from the cockpit. Good news for the FDR, bad news for the CVR (because it almost certainly recorded over the initial diversion if power wasn't cut due to long flight time).

@rcair1 It might be nice if you could add this to your summary when you get a chance, as I've posted this 3 times now in the last 24 hours  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rwessel
Posted 2014-03-19 11:29:42 and read 49949 times.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 1):
Let's face it folks. The search for MH 370 is too slow because we lack a resource to search thousands of square kilometers of the Earth's surface fairly quickly outside of satellites.

It's time to call in the U-2S and RQ-4 Global Hawk from the USAF or the Myasishchev M-55 from the Russian Air Force to scan the surface from a height of 60,000 feet--a height high enough to scan many thousands of square kilometers of the Earth's surface on a single flight.

The width of your photographic footprint is pretty much directly proportional to your altitude. For aircraft altitudes the curvature of the earth is pretty much irrelevant, since almost all imaging is down with a very steep "down" angle. So assuming we had reconnaissance aircraft flying at 30,000ft, it would just take them twice as many passes if the same length lens were used as for the higher flying aircraft.

The main advantage of high altitude is that you’re harder to shoot at, which is not an issue here. On the plus side, the lower altitude will naturally increase the resolution of your imaging.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: YULWinterSkies
Posted 2014-03-19 11:29:52 and read 49962 times.

I admittedly I haven't read the >6000 posts on the > 35 threads... but just wondering:

Have we heard anything at all from Myanmar?
Have they cooperated in the search mission (notably looking at their own radar data)?
Would it be possible for an airliner the size of a 777 to break in their airspace and go undetected?
Would Myanmar have any interest in "stealing" a 777?

Now, none of the above would be in their best interest, and I hate to accuse without evidence (in fact I am not accusing anyone here) but Myanmar is after all, a country that maintains a very high degree of secrecy, at least to the Western hemisphere.

Can airliners actually fly over Myanmar at all, or is it no-fly zone?

If -big if- the aircraft veered towards Western China, that could have been one path, though with very high mountain ranges to cross (the Eastern Himalaya) albeit lower than the central Himalayas.

Disclaimer: I am 100% speculating here.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-19 11:30:28 and read 49877 times.

Quoting rwessel (Reply 126):
But I think the main point is that we really don't know why just those arc segments have been picked, but I suspect that some limited ability to sense signal direction at the satellite is likely.

My understanding/logic is thus.

- The mode being used is the low bandwidth/global mode which does not provide direction. (there is a spot beam mode that would, but it was not being used).
- Signal and/or TOF give you a radial distance from satellite to the a/c
- Assume an elevation (range) for the aircraft.
- This will define a bit circle around the satellite.
- Eliminate the section on the east based on overlapped coverage - since we did not get pings on any other satellite.
- Eliminate distances along the circle that are outside the range of the a/c.
- You have the two arcs.

We have no 'data' on the accuracy (how wide the 'corridors' are).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: PW100
Posted 2014-03-19 11:30:54 and read 49842 times.

For those that want to read the exact text of the last press conference:

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.p...4&id=178566888854999&stream_ref=10

Rgds,
PW100

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 11:32:03 and read 49710 times.

Quoting rwessel (Reply 126):
Another possibility is that the antenna on the satellite has some limited directionality, or more likely the antenna is composed of several segments each with some directionality or phase sensitivity.

It would be great if this is the case. Perhaps they are right now trying to extract some type of info like this from the data and maybe constrain the arcs ("corridors") more (or hopefully even eliminate one of the arcs).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 11:37:41 and read 49394 times.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 129):
I assumed he was talking about it being helpful to determine the cause of the accident once the plane is actually found, but I'm not sure.

Any debris field resulting from a crash into the ocean would be greatly distorted by now.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: peterinlisbon
Posted 2014-03-19 11:38:57 and read 49328 times.

Here's an idea. Let's assume that they weren't flying in circles and so they took a more or less direct route and flew for 7 hours (which we know from at the time of the last satellite ping). Where does the distance corresponding to a 7 hour flight time intersect with the line from the satellite signal? That would narrow down the northern and southern search areas (they didn't take 7 hours just to get to Thailand or Laos, for example so we should look on the satelite line further west). We could also narrow it down further by time zone: assuming they landed during daylight, they would have to be east of a certain point to be in daylight at the time of the last signal. We should also remove from consideration any populated area (as it would have been seen) and any area where the passengers' mobile phones would have got a signal (and a "welcome to Kazakstan, the roaming charges are 5$ per minute" type of message. Personally I still beleive the most likely area is the desert in north-western china.

[Edited 2014-03-19 11:41:32]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: SeeTheWorld
Posted 2014-03-19 11:41:45 and read 49134 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 99):
As I suggested, it's almost as if the Malaysian authorities are going out of their way to obfuscate matters.

Which would make more sense if the evidence is pointing at a crew member ....

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-19 11:49:46 and read 48573 times.

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 138):
Where does the distance corresponding to a 7 hour flight time intersect with the line from the satellite signal?

Apparently at the far southern end of the southern arc, and that is the place where they are searching as far as I understand,.

[Edited 2014-03-19 12:04:42]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: AR385
Posted 2014-03-19 11:51:06 and read 48388 times.

Anybody have an idea when will debris start appearing in the beaches and in which coasts? India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia etc.?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 11:52:04 and read 48440 times.

Quoting SeeTheWorld (Reply 139):
Quoting hivue (Reply 99):As I suggested, it's almost as if the Malaysian authorities are going out of their way to obfuscate matters.
Which would make more sense if the evidence is pointing at a crew member ....

One of the best pieces of advice I've ever been given is never attribute to malice that which adequately can be explained by stupidity. 

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rwessel
Posted 2014-03-19 11:53:20 and read 48222 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 133):
Eliminate the section on the east based on overlapped coverage - since we did not get pings on any other satellite.

I'm losing track, which set of sats is being used for SATCOM on this particular aircraft? The gap in the arc doesn't really correspond to any of the configurations I'm aware of. I'm assume we're talking about the GAN/M4 constellation, and 64E/IOR as the bird picking up the signals, and the gap being produced by 178E/POR *not* picking up the signal. The boundary there should be several hundred miles further west.

If it were further west (and a bit south) I could see it, maybe, although the missing section is aligned so north/south that you'd have to be almost exactly on the edge so that only in that section would the next satellite east be able to pick it up in that range. I'd also be surprised by the northerly bias in reception by the eastern sat (I'd expect the ends of the gap to be roughly equidistant north and south from the equator).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 11:53:23 and read 48217 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 140):
Quoting hivue (Reply 137):Where does the distance corresponding to a 7 hour flight time intersect with the line from the satellite signal?
Apparently at the far southern end of the southern arc, and that is the place where they are searching as far as I understand,.

That's not my quote. (The anet quote gremlin has struck again.)

[Edited 2014-03-19 11:54:10]

[Edited 2014-03-19 11:56:14]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 11:55:47 and read 48081 times.

Quoting rwessel (Reply 143):
The gap in the arc doesn't really correspond to any of the configurations I'm aware of.

I think that's where the 178 deg E POR overlap is. IIRC there are maps in rcair1's sanity check.

[Edited 2014-03-19 11:58:39]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: peterinlisbon
Posted 2014-03-19 11:57:48 and read 47924 times.

I was wondering - does anyone know how reliable information from the satellite is? Is it at all possible that this information is not correct? Because if so, another possibility would be that the pilot / captain / both decided to fly to and land at Diego Garcia as a sort of political protest / publicity stunt because of the sentancing of Mr Anwar Ibrahim. That would make sense in terms of the lost radar contact at the last waypoint and the time of the reported sightings over the Maldives. The captain had been practicing landings at Diego Garcia, so maybe he knew from memory details of the runway configuration and its location etc. But maybe the aircraft ran out of fuel before it got there. The captain might have calculated he had enough fuel, but that was not accounting for the winds, the altitude, the particular route he took, or the weight of the aircraft on this particular flight. So maybe they ran out of fuel somewhere between the Maldives and Diego Garcia. There is not much shipping there, and it's a long way from any significant land mass.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: SeeTheWorld
Posted 2014-03-19 11:59:29 and read 47868 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 142):
One of the best pieces of advice I've ever been given is never attribute to malice that which adequately can be explained by stupidity. 

I agree, but if the Malaysians could point to anything other than crew suicide, I think they'd be extremely clear about it. They may have concluded, based on somethings we may not know, that suicide looks most plausible.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-19 12:00:42 and read 47785 times.

My biggest fear in all this is that an Entity(person/group/government) will get away with murder, and worst of this fear, is this entity is part of the investigation and submitting false infos and clues to deter the truth

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 12:02:58 and read 47568 times.

Quoting rwessel (Reply 143):
The boundary there should be several hundred miles further west.

On the map in the sanity check the western boundary for 178 deg E POR looks like it crosses the southern tip of the Malay peninsula. Looks in just about the right place to me.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-19 12:03:20 and read 47542 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 141):
Anybody have an idea when will debris start appearing in the beaches and in which coasts? India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia etc.?

Not sure usually that requires quite a bit of modelling (supercomputer time and ocean flow researchers) and knowledge of where the debris started and its nature. Without knowing where the debris field started or even is currently figuring out when debris might show up on coastlines isn't going to be very useful as it would be an estimate based on an estimate based on another estimate so is very likely to give wild variations in times.

All this considered it basically could be weeks to years to never before it shows up on beaches and coasts possibly even decades as ocean currents can do strange things. See this for a real world example ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendly_Floatees ), although those plastic toys are ideal objects for such a study as they are robust, unique, and the point of origin is well known. For airplane debris by the time stuff reaches shorelines if ever it isn't likely to be easily identified.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Tbone354
Posted 2014-03-19 12:08:07 and read 47137 times.

Howdy folks:

I am amazed at this thread or at least the length of it. I admit that I have not read all of it or even most of it. Who in Sam Hill could? Just what do you all find to talk so much about? Has there been any real news since this plane disappeared? Part 37 of this thread about what? The same old same old? Speculation, conjecture, theories, and so on. Sounds like the media. Nobody knows anything yet people cannot seem to slow down talking bout it. I will wait until some facts, any facts are learned. I do not deal in maybe, what if, perhaps, could have and what not. Do not get me wrong here. I do care and I am interested but I simply must wait until there is actually something learned and known for me to carry on.

Thank you all for your time,
Jim

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: desh
Posted 2014-03-19 12:13:55 and read 47756 times.

Just got this announcement via email from Tomnod. Someone in earlier threads (not sure when) had posted the overall coverage by Tomnod -

http://sendgrid.com/wf/webmail?rp=ZT...5sY2w5cFpDSTZORFF6TVRFNE5qazFNREI5

Wanted to see if it was any better than the last time ...

Thanks !

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: N328KF
Posted 2014-03-19 12:14:30 and read 47173 times.

Quoting FltAdmiralRitt (Reply 119):

It would be useful to find out to compare the following.

The debris field size and density in an deep ocean crash in 3 scenarios.

1) An out of fuel aircraft in uncontrolled dive.

AF447 is the template here, right? It wasn't out of fuel, but it was stalled. Close enough.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-19 12:14:50 and read 47137 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 144):
That's not my quote. (The anet quote gremlin has struck again.)

Corrected   (It was the gremlin, not me)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: William60
Posted 2014-03-19 12:16:37 and read 47018 times.

Under one scenario, in which the pilot willingly re-directed the flight path...

From what little is known of the flight, what aspect would require simulator practice?

With 18,000 hours of flight experience, and I assume familiarity with the region,
What would require simulation exercises?

Apologies if this has been addressed.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-19 12:18:20 and read 46851 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 142):
One of the best pieces of advice I've ever been given is never attribute to malice that which adequately can be explained by stupidity. 

To add some perspective, that advice was also offered here about the French search for AF447. Many accused the French of being deliberately misleading and vague in the hope that it wouldn't be found in order to protect French interests. Others "defended" them rather patronisingly by saying we shouldn't expect them to be as capable as the Americans. There were certainly accusations of incompetence and when information was updated there were charges of backtracking and contradiction. And yet the job got done. Fortunately there were plenty of of more level-headed people to keep things on an even keel, including many from the USA, I should add. Nothing new here.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Pihero
Posted 2014-03-19 12:19:49 and read 47230 times.

Reasonability check.
1/- The mass murdering pilot. Cold blood killing of 238 people, at least 20 of them being good friends - as Malaysian is not such a big airline, they know each other, certainly well within a fleet ?

2/- Hide and seek . Why climb to 45,000 ft if you want to be undetected ? Especially toward countries with equipment you can't know a lot about ( example is Thailand sure enough of their detection equipment that thgey have an ADIZ ).
The most logical mùanoeuvre would have been to co,tinue Noth-Eastward, dive to the waves level, and only then come back to the west.

Why shadow a scheduled airliner, knowing that any radar worthy of that name coud discriminate targets very close to each other ? Answer : fly just underneath...  ... Problem is the airliner above has a radio-altimeter which will react to an obstacle underneath closer than 2500 ft, well inside discrimination distance... Unless of course, the pilots of that aircraft would have been on the scheme... Right ?... That airliner's pilots would have noticed, as a synthetic voice call-out would have been made.

Why fly at 29,500 ft ? Your aircraft would have been painted like Xmas tree by any primary radar ?

3/- Sims and simmers are not pilots, bar exceptions. An airline pilot doesn't need fsf or its likjs to know how to fly. He/she doesn't need to practice landings on any strip : eyeballing is the name of the game and one only needs to integrate the peculiarities of said unusual strip : changed geometry due to narrow strip, length, slope... and, frankly, to think that fsf can teach yoiu that is asking a lot from that game... Unless he was practicing aircraft carrier landings... Were they many of those in the area ? Chinese ?.. US ?.. Indian ?.. there you have another conspiracy scenario   

4/- FMS and Waypoints... Better say MCDU and NAV. Why use official waypoints if you want to hide ? Much easier to input coordinates of one in the midle of the ocean and fly direct to it...or several of the same sort... Why ? Main reason is that airways tend to be busy with airliners and the risk of discovery is greater.

... We could go on and on... Enough for tonight...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: TheRedBAron
Posted 2014-03-19 12:20:18 and read 46812 times.

Seeing that the missing airplane may have fallen on the south part of the Indian Ocean west of Australia and that is fairly south on the globe, if the debris is caught in the south indian current, eventually any debris will be found on the surrounding islands, continent, maybe even australia.

If the debris is caught in the transoceanic antarctic current.... we may never find anything.

TRB

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: SSTeve
Posted 2014-03-19 12:24:18 and read 46381 times.

Quoting Tbone354 (Reply 151):
Has there been any real news since this plane disappeared? Part 37 of this thread about what? The same old same old? Speculation, conjecture, theories, and so on. Sounds like the media. Nobody knows anything yet people cannot seem to slow down talking bout it. I will wait until some facts, any facts are learned. I do not deal in maybe, what if, perhaps, could have and what not. Do not get me wrong here. I do care and I am interested but I simply must wait until there is actually something learned and known for me to carry on.

Read the rcair1 updates. Reply #64 in this thread.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: slinky09
Posted 2014-03-19 12:24:23 and read 46439 times.

Has anyone seen any updates on the search in the southern Indian Ocean? The lack of debris is odd but then it is remote and a large area.

With AF447 debris was found within two days of the search as a comparison, although the last position was known.

As to the 777, I think about 11% is composites. With AF447 the vertical taie plane was largely composites, which is why it floated. Are there any large sections of the 777 that are composite (I know some of the tale plane is, but enough to float)? Just wondering if there are any likely large sections floating around IF it did ditch at the end of the southern arc.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-19 12:26:11 and read 46272 times.

Quoting rwessel (Reply 143):
I'm losing track, which set of sats is being used for SATCOM on this particular aircraft?

It is in the sanity check - reply 64

Quoting hivue (Reply 145):
IIRC there are maps in rcair1's sanity check.

Yup

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 64):
Sanity Check

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: FltAdmiralRitt
Posted 2014-03-19 12:29:09 and read 46066 times.

Futherthing on the point below.

"It would be useful to find out to compare the following.

The debris field size and density in an deep ocean crash in 3 scenarios. "
( Which are posted in reply 119.)


If We assume a deliberate attempt by an suicidal agent to hide the A/C remains.
what offers the least floating debris. I say that a ditching the plane offers a smaller number of debris items.

Lets see what would float, assuming no major components of the aircraft are floating somewhere. assuming the
aircraft broke into 2-3 pieces.

1)some Luggage , I don't think most are meant to be ocean proof.
2)Fuel Spill. How long would that last in the ocean, a few days?
3) Seats (with poor souls strapped in ) There are bound to be some as the break up would cause detachments.
( I don't know if this combo would float or how long.)

4) Nearly empty sealed plastic containers items. (based on container ship incidents my money is on this being
the most persistent type of debris. Good luck in identifying from other junk in the ocean.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-19 12:29:19 and read 46142 times.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 157):
... We could go on and on... Enough for tonight...

Nicely put.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-19 12:32:04 and read 45809 times.

Quoting slinky09 (Reply 160):
Has anyone seen any updates on the search in the southern Indian Ocean? The lack of debris is odd but then it is remote and a large area.

With AF447 debris was found within two days of the search as a comparison, although the last position was known.

As to the 777, I think about 11% is composites. With AF447 the vertical taie plane was largely composites, which is why it floated. Are there any large sections of the 777 that are composite (I know some of the tale plane is, but enough to float)? Just wondering if there are any likely large sections floating around IF it did ditch at the end of the southern arc.

They have only really been searching for 1 day (2 now) and their initial search only covered 1/10th of what they wanted to search on the 2nd day of searching they are adding far more planes with more to come and commercial ships traversing the estimated search area. Since the final position isn't known it technically is possible to finish searching the area without finding anything. (Not to mention the northern area is still being searched as well) In my view there is nothing odd about them not finding anything as according to the AMSA it could take weeks to complete.

( https://www.amsa.gov.au/media/ ) that page seems to be updated frequently and has all the images, interviews, content you need.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-19 12:41:20 and read 45207 times.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 157):
1/- The mass murdering pilot. Cold blood killing of 238 people, at least 20 of them being good friends - as Malaysian is not such a big airline, they know each other, certainly well within a fleet

It is possible he waited with his plan for a co-pilot which he didn't particularly like. I doubt he could know all or even most of the F/As.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 157):
2/- Hide and seek . Why climb to 45,000 ft if you want to be undetected ? Especially toward countries with equipment you can't know a lot about ( example is Thailand sure enough of their detection equipment that thgey have an ADIZ ).

The climb to 45,000 ft is not confirmed. If it is confirmed it is difficult to explain in any scenario, unless he wanted the passenger oxygen masks be ineffective.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 157):
Why use official waypoints if you want to hide ?

He might have thought that an aircraft flying official routes and waypoints without a transponder would look less suspicious to primary radars (just a malfunction) than an aircraft without a transponder flying outside the official routes. It is also possible that he depressurized the aircraft killing himself (and all the others) and the aircraft flew solely based on a pre-programmed route.

Everything above is just speculation.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: AR385
Posted 2014-03-19 12:42:42 and read 44996 times.

Quoting TheRedBAron (Reply 158):
Seeing that the missing airplane may have fallen on the south part of the Indian Ocean west of Australia and that is fairly south on the globe, if the debris is caught in the south indian current, eventually any debris will be found on the surrounding islands, continent, maybe even australia.

If the debris is caught in the transoceanic antarctic current.... we may never find anything.
Quoting tomlee (Reply 150):
Not sure usually that requires quite a bit of modelling (supercomputer time and ocean flow researchers) and knowledge of where the debris started and its nature. Without knowing where the debris field started or even is currently figuring out when debris might show up on coastlines isn't going to be very useful as it would be an estimate based on an estimate based on another estimate so is very likely to give wild variations in times.

Thanks to you both. Although I was of the opinion that some debris was bound to wash up on shore soon, I see that it might not be the case. Which at the same time, no debris washing up, does not indicate the plane did not crash into the ocean and landed somewhere.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: SeeTheWorld
Posted 2014-03-19 12:44:28 and read 45002 times.

Quoting TheRedBAron (Reply 158):
If the debris is caught in the transoceanic antarctic current.... we may never find anything.

This has been worrying me for many days .... but, I actually believe some wreckage will wash up on some coastline and will be discovered, eventually ... I hope that it is soon if, indeed, it's in the ocean ....

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: TheRedBAron
Posted 2014-03-19 12:51:43 and read 44430 times.

The only islands that "might" get debris if caught in the transoceanic antarctic current are the kergelens and the Falklands/ Georgias.... MIGHT being the key word (and after a few months)

TRB

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: AR385
Posted 2014-03-19 13:01:04 and read 43662 times.

Another question. Assuming:

One pilot did it.

How do you get rid of the other pilot?

1) The other pilot goes out for a bathroom break and the one left in the cockpit locks himself in. A la Ethiopian nut-case guy in Geneva.

2) One pilot kills the other

If 2:

1) How would one pilot kill another one within the confines of the cockpit?

2) If using a gun, how did the gun get on board? I´ve seen footage of the two pilots going through security at KUL. Could a plastic gun like those seen over the news made from a 3D printer been used?

3) What bullet would not (after hitting its primary objective) pierce the hull of the 777? damaging whomever knows how many wires and components. I recall that A320 that had an accidental discharge in the cockpit and the bullet exited the plane and there was a lot of damage along the trajectory of the projectile.

I haven´t seen these questions asked. If they have, I´m sorry.

[Edited 2014-03-19 13:14:52]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-19 13:11:26 and read 42792 times.

This is the first day that I actually skimmed over all of the posts instead of reading and replying to each one in detail. Please, guys, read the fabulous "sanity check" post before posting. It is highly likely that what you are suggesting has already been suggested. I understand as aviators, professional or otherwise, or wannabes, we all want answers. Littering up the thread helps no one.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-19 13:11:47 and read 42770 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 169):
Could a plastic gun like those seen over the news made from a 3D printer been used?

A 3d printed gun is more likely to kill the shooter than the target. (They are pretty unreliable for guns, assuming you mean a pure 3d printed one which is highly likely to just explode in the shooter's hand)(And it is a material properties thing something you can't really get around with additive processes unless you use secondary mfg steps at which point your just making a regular gun using advanced mold making techniques)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: iberiadc852
Posted 2014-03-19 13:14:05 and read 42432 times.

About Tomnod:

How often they "refresh" images?
Do they store old images?

Sorry if this information is easy to find, but it doesn't seem to me.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-19 13:16:21 and read 42281 times.

Quoting iberiadc852 (Reply 172):

when you're browsing the maps, it tells you when the image was taken.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: AR385
Posted 2014-03-19 13:18:57 and read 42163 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 171):
A 3d printed gun is more likely to kill the shooter than the target. (They are pretty unreliable for guns, assuming you mean a pure 3d printed one which is highly likely to just explode in the shooter's hand)(And it is a material properties thing something you can't really get around with additive processes unless you use secondary mfg steps at which point your just making a regular gun using advanced mold making techniques)

Thank you. So how, if my assumptions are correct, and that is a big if, was one pilot gotten rid off? What are the possible scenarios of how that happened? Recalling the damage a projectile fired inside a cockpit can cause.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: DJM18
Posted 2014-03-19 13:24:32 and read 41694 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 169):
Another question. Assuming:One pilot did it. How do you get rid of the other pilot?

I can think of two relatively simple ways to do this....

- The first would be to slip something in his drink

- The second is to sabotage his oxygen supply and then drepressurize the plane

I am sure there are other scenarios and clearly we are all here starved for facts at a time when then only newsworthy item is that the captain deleted some files from his home computer. Clearly, we are scrapping the bottom of the barrell and this will take weeks if not months to resolve.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-19 13:25:40 and read 41772 times.

Quoting DJM18 (Reply 175):
I can think of two relatively simple ways to do this....

- The first would be to slip something in his drink

- The second is to sabotage his oxygen supply and then drepressurize the plane

Really?

Guys, they have an axe.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-19 13:28:45 and read 41789 times.

I really insist that nobody waste time on Tomnod. The imaged area is far too small, plus there's so much noise with people thinking container ships are wreckage. It's a huge waste of time. As someone in the software industry I totally believe in the whole crowdsourcing thing, don't get me wrong, but you just don't know what to look for and it's incredibly improbable that what you are looking for has been imaged.

I know it's an unpopular opinion, but believe me, you won't find the plane this way.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-19 13:30:53 and read 41678 times.

BNN=Breaking News Network

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: AR385
Posted 2014-03-19 13:32:01 and read 41539 times.

Quoting DJM18 (Reply 175):
I can think of two relatively simple ways to do this....

- The first would be to slip something in his drink

- The second is to sabotage his oxygen supply and then drepressurize the plane

I am sure there are other scenarios and clearly we are all here starved for facts at a time when then only newsworthy item is that the captain deleted some files from his home computer. Clearly, we are scrapping the bottom of the barrell and this will take weeks if not months to resolve.

Thank you.

Your first scenario on slipping something on the drink really does not work. There is a multiple of reasons, but it really is not possible to predict how an individual is going to react to a substance taken unknowingly that afffects the CNS. If anything, you could end up with the opposite effect and then you have an incontrollable pilot full of rage next to you.

Sabotaging his Oxygen supply and subsequently deppressurizing does sound very plausible (to me) so that one is an interesting idea.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: iberiadc852
Posted 2014-03-19 13:32:08 and read 41277 times.

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 173):
Quoting iberiadc852 (Reply 172):
when you're browsing the maps, it tells you when the image was taken.

Thanks. And what about old images?. Do they exist?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: AR385
Posted 2014-03-19 13:34:28 and read 41152 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 176):
Really?

Guys, they have an axe.

I appreciate the input but I find that very implausible due to the amount of confrontation it would entail in such a confined space, and the potential damage to the cockpit controls and systems that would ensue. Also, certain liquids resulting from such confrontation can, over a number of minutes, render electrical systems useless.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: flexo
Posted 2014-03-19 13:38:12 and read 40872 times.

What I really don't get about the proposed Northern Corridor is that in order to get there you must fly over a couple relatively densely populated areas with corresponding cell phone coverage.
If the plane would have taken that route, wouldn't neccessarily be at least one forgotten-to-be-turned-off cell phones of a passenger have had to have contact to a cell phone tower? It seems impossible that not a single passenger left his cell phone turned on!

To me, this makes the northern corridor very unlikely!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Summa767
Posted 2014-03-19 13:38:16 and read 40893 times.

On the matter of debris on the ocean, I don't think that a field of debris, if any at all may be found.

This incident appears to have some deliberate actions aimed at evading detection.
Why go to those lengths, and then crash the plane into the Ocean leaving a field of debris? If the aim was to remain undetectable, would a "softish" landing a la Sullenberger not seem more appropriate for the mission of disappearing a 777, whether as an act of terrorism or act of idiosyncrasy?
If successfully landed on the sea, how long would a 777 stay afloat? A couple of hours at the most? But it wold sink in one piece.
I am assuming that whoever did it, was not counting on the satellite "pings" that have narrowed to some extent the search area, though it is still massive.

I hope that search teams are using sonar and not just looking on the surface of the ocean.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-19 13:41:20 and read 40762 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 181):
I appreciate the input but I find that very implausible due to the amount of confrontation it would entail in such a confined space, and the potential damage to the cockpit controls and systems that would ensue. Also, certain liquids resulting from such confrontation can, over a number of minutes, render electrical systems useless.

What? Flight crew member gets up with some routine excuse, grabs the fire axe, does what he does. No damage to systems required. I'm just sayin', if you're looking for some sort of weapon in the cockpit, there's already one there.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-19 13:43:44 and read 40561 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 174):
Thank you. So how, if my assumptions are correct, and that is a big if, was one pilot gotten rid off? What are the possible scenarios of how that happened? Recalling the damage a projectile fired inside a cockpit can cause.

Blunt force trauma, stabbing, a regular makeshift gun, auto-injector with anything. A spoon/fork/spork, a usb cable, tape, ... anything really if you want to kill/incapacitate someone you can do it with anything including your bare hands no gun, no decompression needed.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: prebennorholm
Posted 2014-03-19 13:46:56 and read 40350 times.

Quoting slinky09 (Reply 160):
With AF447 the vertical taie plane was largely composites, which is why it floated.

No, the AF447 verical tail main structure was made of CFRP composites which does not float. It floated due to trapped air pockets.

The 777 vertical tail is also made of CFRP, and it may float, or it may not float. To make it float two conditions must be met:
It separated from the fuselage, and air pockets are trapped inside. It may float for some time, then later sink as air pockets are washed out by ocean waves.

Quite substantial air pockets are needed since it also contains quite heavy machinery such as rudder hinges, control actuators, anti flutter balance weights, lightning protection, etc.

(Yes, I know this was covered some 30-35 threads ago).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-19 13:47:49 and read 40268 times.

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 183):
would a "softish" landing a la Sullenberger not seem more appropriate for the mission of disappearing a 777, whether as an act of terrorism or act of idiosyncrasy?

Just remember that "softish" landing in water are extremely rare. Even in that river landing situation it was not really a "soft" landing. Landing in open ocean waters with rough sea conditions and moderate to high winds would make a soft landing almost impossible. (It is still "possible" but it is very improbable and I don't think there have been any)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: anstar
Posted 2014-03-19 13:48:06 and read 40061 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 181):
I appreciate the input but I find that very implausible due to the amount of confrontation it would entail in such a confined space, and the potential damage to the cockpit controls and systems that would ensue

Perhaps, but if you think the flight crew usually have to be strapped in at all times when sitting at the controls.

So lets say the FO says he is getting up to go to the loo. the captain would still have his seatbelt on and the FO could crab the axe without much notice and then take out the captain pretty quickly I would imagine.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: spitfire
Posted 2014-03-19 13:48:47 and read 40113 times.

Quoting na (Reply 121):
why the Malaysian military did not react in time when they detected an unknown plane overflying their territory all the way

Maybe like the Swiss Airforce ... they are operational only during office hours ...

[Edited 2014-03-19 13:49:43]

[Edited 2014-03-19 13:50:36]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: socalgeo
Posted 2014-03-19 13:53:10 and read 39792 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 164):
They have only really been searching for 1 day (2 now) and their initial search only covered 1/10th of what they wanted to search on the 2nd day of searching they are adding far more planes with more to come and commercial ships traversing the estimated search area. Since the final position isn't known it technically is possible to finish searching the area without finding anything. (Not to mention the northern area is still being searched as well) In my view there is nothing odd about them not finding anything as according to the AMSA it could take weeks to complete.

( https://www.amsa.gov.au/media/ ) that page seems to be updated frequently and has all the images, interviews, content you need.

Thanks for the link tomlee, I checked it out and the search area map shows that they were planning to search an area that is 3200KM to the west of Perth, and south of that spot. I drew an approximation of the search area in the live map:http://sandbox.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=95cbede59b3e471eb14b52c362966934 but it basically looks like this:



The yellow circle is a 3200 stat mile buffer on the approximate last contact (ACARS) and the red circle is a buffer on the 2970 Stat mile buffer on the approximate point of last radar contact. The top of their search area is near an intersection of these two circles. However, if the plane followed the course west over the Straits as we have been told then it seems like the top of their search area is at the very farthest possible range, or perhaps beyond the range of the fuel load.

Also, I added the Australia JORN Radar sites along with an estimated 3000 KM range polygon based onthe info in Wikipedia, and if it is correct it seems like the plane could have made it closer to Australia without being detected on radar...like closer to where the 2970 mile buffer from last radar contact (red line) intersects with the search from the satellate based calculations (Orange line)... just some thoughts...

SoCalGeo

[Edited 2014-03-19 13:55:07]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-19 14:04:10 and read 38811 times.

Can you just lock the other pilot out of the cockpit if he leaves?

If you do that though, you probably alert the passengers to the situation. They will likely figure out that the pilot is locked out.

[Edited 2014-03-19 14:05:44]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Mitico12
Posted 2014-03-19 14:07:55 and read 38945 times.

General Tom McInerney, retired USAF, doubles down on the plane having landed in Pakistan.

Has this been discussed?

http://nation.foxnews.com/2014/03/19...uld-missing-plane-be-held-pakistan

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: AR385
Posted 2014-03-19 14:08:44 and read 38540 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 191):
If you do that though, you probably alert the passengers to the situation. They will likely figure out that the pilot is locked out.

And I´m pretty sure in such case he would request the help of his passengers. And more than one, in that corner of the world, is bound to have a satellite phone.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: ComeAndGo
Posted 2014-03-19 14:09:08 and read 38670 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 191):
Can you just lock the other pilot out of the cockpit if he leaves?

How about --> Both pilots are locked out of the cockpit & plane flies itself ?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: 65mustang
Posted 2014-03-19 14:09:41 and read 38763 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 181):
I appreciate the input but I find that very implausible due to the amount of confrontation it would entail in such a confined space, and the potential damage to the cockpit controls and systems that would ensue. Also, certain liquids resulting from such confrontation can, over a number of minutes, render electrical systems useless.

Maybe this is what happened.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hamiltondaniel
Posted 2014-03-19 14:14:05 and read 38465 times.

Quoting Mitico12 (Reply 192):
General Tom McInerney, retired USAF, doubles down on the plane having landed in Pakistan.

General Tom McInerny, retired USAF, spouts some scaremongering nonsense on Fox News...unprecedented!

Could the aircraft be in Pakistan? Well, it's remotely, remotely, remotely possible.

There are several much better explanations, and Gen. McInerny appears to want to get into a shooting war with Pakistan and doesn't seem too fond of backing up his claims, so I think I'm going to safely ignore his opinion.

If I am wrong I will gladly eat my shoe, but I hope I am not wrong because a) Pakistani involvement in this whole affair might lead to a war, and b) Shoes are altogether lacking in flavor.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: William60
Posted 2014-03-19 14:15:38 and read 38716 times.

CNN reporting Malaysian authorities have new radar data.
They cannot release the info because it came from another
country.

Could be confirmation of sorts the plane travelled along the
Southern arc.

If it indicates the plane actually went north, it will be a bizarre
Twist to say the least.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: davidzill
Posted 2014-03-19 14:19:03 and read 38082 times.

I think in the end something that never crossed anyone's minds is what occurred, and it may contain absolutely no malice on the part of the pilots.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: AR385
Posted 2014-03-19 14:19:39 and read 37995 times.

So I suppoose that if the theory that one pilot did it is true (big if)

Then:

1) No gun was used
2) He incapacitated the other one with either:
a)The axe
b)Another article that could impart severe trauma that it would result in death.

Though I still think that a confrontation within the cockpit with such articles would be pretty savage and bloody I suppose it might be plausible. Although I maintain that the sang froid required for doing such a thing is not easy to find in a normal, untrained person.

By the way. Another question: Howe long after take off is it fit for one of the two pilots to go to the bathroom?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-19 14:21:10 and read 38300 times.

Just heard on CNN that the way points on radar after transponder went off appear to be systematic and software driven, rather than a human flying the plane in an emergency. If flown manually, the path would have been more erratic and less smooth.

Also, one of the guests (Weiss I believe) on Wolf Blitzer's show right now did not go with the flight plan change keyed in hypothesis. When questioned about the veracity of this information, WB mentioned that the source was a law enforcement personnel. I think they are questioning that angle.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-19 14:22:08 and read 37736 times.

did the oxygen hose in mh370 get replaced with a non conductive one as per the FAA recommendation after the Egypt air ground fire? that oxygen fueled fire was devastating and wiped out most instruments, burned a hole in the skin. They never found a conclusive cause just guesswork and recommendations.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: billreid
Posted 2014-03-19 14:23:34 and read 38134 times.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 157):
... We could go on and on... Enough for tonight...

Nicely said.
I am scanning the posts/thread for something new, nothing else. But I haven't seen anything new for what seams like days.

I turn on CNN for something new. I enjoy the Toronto simulator, but that is only as good as it is programmed. It is not 100.0000% accurate as not all flight scenarios are in the computer. It appears the media throws out constant repeat garbage to boost ratings .... but true aviation professionals are scanning to get info on what happened because we care for our industry.

I think these threads need to be modified or changed to only include new findings. Am truly getting bored reading the same stuff different day.

Enough lack of new information overload!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: coolian2
Posted 2014-03-19 14:23:37 and read 38179 times.

Quoting hamiltondaniel (Reply 196):
General Tom McInerny, retired USAF, spouts some scaremongering nonsense on Fox News...unprecedented!

Could the aircraft be in Pakistan? Well, it's remotely, remotely, remotely possible.

There are several much better explanations, and Gen. McInerny appears to want to get into a shooting war with Pakistan and doesn't seem too fond of backing up his claims, so I think I'm going to safely ignore his opinion.

If I am wrong I will gladly eat my shoe, but I hope I am not wrong because a) Pakistani involvement in this whole affair might lead to a war, and b) Shoes are altogether lacking in flavor.

Without even looking at links, that was my immediate thought.

This is being used in the usual quarters for pointless political point scoring (say that ten times fast).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: William60
Posted 2014-03-19 14:29:24 and read 37627 times.

There have been a number of crazy theories.
Why repeat them here?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: billreid
Posted 2014-03-19 14:30:20 and read 37622 times.

I keep thinking this....

Nothing is as it appears.
Assume things are different that we thought.

Because none of the theories make sense to me any more.
Except for one original thought. If we can't find it, its because somebody doesn't want us to.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: anstar
Posted 2014-03-19 14:42:32 and read 36532 times.

Quoting billreid (Reply 205):
Except for one original thought. If we can't find it, its because somebody doesn't want us to.

That is my train of thought as well.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: abba
Posted 2014-03-19 14:46:51 and read 36290 times.

Quoting hamiltondaniel (Reply 196):
General Tom McInerny, retired USAF, spouts some scaremongering nonsense on Fox News...unprecedented!

Could the aircraft be in Pakistan? Well, it's remotely, remotely, remotely possible.

It seems likely that the general has been in the infantry for most of his career....

There are several reasons that indicate that this theory is less than likely.

Background checks would have revealed if such a scenario is likely by now. In particular it is noteworthy that the two pilots did not ask for flying together. This is important unless - that is - we can make our self believe that a large proportion of the Malaysian Airline employees are somehow working with the Taliban (or another similar organisation). People will not do such things out of the blue. They will have a history. That is in particular true when it comes to the captain who was known as a strong supporter of Anvar Ibrahim.

I strongly believe that ANY theory that is even remotely similar to the Fox News General's can be safely considered as unlikely by now and put to rest. Background checks of the pilots' political and religious backgrounds would have confirmed that possibility by now.

That is of cause not excluding other people having taken over the airplane (even if that should also have been excluded by now unless it was the Russians or Ukrainians on board who did it. Russia and Ukraine do not cooperate on this investigation concerning their nationals on the plane). Nor does it exclude suicide. This, of cause, also becomes less likely by the day. People who are suicidal sends out signals long before actually committing suicide. In particular if their suicide is going to kill several hundred other people. If the captain wanted to kill himself due e.g. to illness or strictly personal troubles he would not take several hundred innocent people with him. To do so he must have been VERY angry - something which should have been known by now.

´Remember in this context how relatively quickly the perpetrators of 9/11 were recognized - even if some of them were living as far away from the place of their terrible crime as in Germany?

As time goes by some kind of technical reason becomes increasingly more likely.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: spacecadet
Posted 2014-03-19 14:47:56 and read 36291 times.

Quoting hamiltondaniel (Reply 196):
If I am wrong I will gladly eat my shoe, but I hope I am not wrong because a) Pakistani involvement in this whole affair might lead to a war, and b) Shoes are altogether lacking in flavor.

Lots of countries smarter than Pakistan's current government have done things that it seemed obvious would lead to war, and in many cases did. That it would lead to war doesn't really preclude anything, especially if they assumed in advance that they'd never get caught.

The Pakistan landing theory makes slightly more sense than the contortions some people have been doing the past couple of days to shoehorn some sort of mechanical emergency into this incident. It is probably orders of magnitude more likely than both pilots being locked out of the cockpit and the plane then flying on its own for 7.5 hours, as someone suggested a bit further up. At least a landing in Pakistan would fit the facts that we currently have, even if it is not the most likely scenario that does.

I don't think that's what happened either, but you can't dismiss a theory on the grounds that it sounds like fearmongering if that theory fits the facts. What you can do is put it on the list down near the bottom, after every other more likely scenario has been investigated and ruled out. But it still should be on the list.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 14:48:10 and read 36141 times.

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 194):
How about --> Both pilots are locked out of the cockpit & plane flies itself ?

They'd have been on their phones for sure in that case.

(Actually, though, I'm thinking it's going to be something weird but non-dramatic like this that is the actual cause.)

[Edited 2014-03-19 14:51:48]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: jpsnaggs
Posted 2014-03-19 14:54:56 and read 35633 times.

Quoting billreid (Reply 205):

I keep thinking this....

Nothing is as it appears.
Assume things are different that we thought.

Because none of the theories make sense to me any more.
Except for one original thought. If we can't find it, its because somebody doesn't want us to.

My thoughts exactly - from day one I have watched this forum and other forums go through this logically and not logically (i.e conspiratorially) and nothing seems to fit exactly.... For a reason I think. Nothing is as it appears and we must think outside of the norm here. Not like aliens, just different than what we knew yesterday. It seems very possible that whatever occurred was a "one off" and so unusual that we have never seen anything exactly like it before. Whether it was pilot error, mechanical, or sabotage it happened as no one has seen it happen before... Even if it happens to be a "normal" mechanical issue that spun out of control it is still unusual to have not found the wreckage, imo.

That being said.... I tend to agree with you about this - if we can't find it - its because somebody doesn't want us to...

[Edited 2014-03-19 14:58:59]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: SQA350
Posted 2014-03-19 14:55:44 and read 35813 times.

Quoting William60 (Reply 197):
CNN reporting Malaysian authorities have new radar data.
They cannot release the info because it came from another
country.

Probably this...

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/loca...defends-delayed-radar-blips-report

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: psolk
Posted 2014-03-19 14:59:18 and read 35291 times.

Took 75 years to find the titanic after it was underwater...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: MD80Nut
Posted 2014-03-19 15:01:39 and read 35233 times.

While we certainly don't know what happened yet as of 3/2014, these are some possibilities I see based on what little is known:

1- There is strong evidence of an unknown plot by humans. The evidence is growing that the airplane was purposely diverted and flew for hours past the last known radio and radar contacts.
2- That some group or organization hasn't claimed credit means nothing. There have been hijacking/terrorist actions where no one claimed credit. And who knows what intent they had, they may be looking to impress potential sponsors/allies/recruits with their power and abilities for example. We simply have no idea what their motive could be at this point.
3- The operation may still be in progress and the other shoe may drop soon.
4- The operation may have failed and the plane crashed in a remote area of land or sea and has yet to be found.

Of course there are even more possibilities than I can think of, but one thing's for sure. I've been an aviation enthusiast since my childhood in the early 60s and this is becoming the most unbelievable and mysterious "case" I can remember.

Cheers, Ralph

edited to correct year on date. Stupid fingers.  Smile

[Edited 2014-03-19 15:06:03]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Summa767
Posted 2014-03-19 15:01:55 and read 35144 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 187):
Just remember that "softish" landing in water are extremely rare. Even in that river landing situation it was not really a "soft" landing. Landing in open ocean waters with rough sea conditions and moderate to high winds would make a soft landing almost impossible. (It is still "possible" but it is very improbable and I don't think there have been any)

There have not been many successful water landings, not least because there have not been many water landings! But that is something that is planned for, Is it not? The ones that come to mind are Ethiopian and US Air. The former under the duress of a kidnapping.
I don't buy that at all that a successful water landing is "improbable" as you say, though they are very risky manoeuvres, and could even be a challenge for a determined fool.
Even if a break up happens, the debris will be much more contained than a high speed impact.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 15:04:00 and read 35003 times.

Quoting MD80Nut (Reply 213):
While we certainly don't know what happened yet as of 3/1914

Yeah, I feel like I'm in a time warp too. 

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-19 15:11:43 and read 34417 times.

Quoting billreid (Reply 205):
Except for one original thought. If we can't find it, its because somebody doesn't want us to.

It isn't an original thought but it is illogical.
Think about it: if the plane can't be found (by multiple countries) then it is because humans are imperfect. Even powerful governments have limits. As a species, we've definitely not got it all worked out. No shock there.

So lets postulate a perfect crime, committed by a perfect criminal organisation, to explain things?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Shmendr
Posted 2014-03-19 15:12:14 and read 34323 times.

Does anyone know if P3 Orion / P8 Poseidon can land on an aircraft carrier?

In addition, does anyone know if Australia has aircraft carriers?

Finally, does the US DOD show the current position of its aircraft carriers? If there is one near/in the Indian Ocean?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: garpd
Posted 2014-03-19 15:12:53 and read 34301 times.

Quoting psolk (Reply 212):
Took 75 years to find the titanic after it was underwater...

Apples and oranges. And I think you know that  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: MD80Nut
Posted 2014-03-19 15:14:00 and read 34291 times.

Quoting Shmendr (Reply 217):

No to all.

Cheers, Ralph

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: infiniti329
Posted 2014-03-19 15:16:41 and read 34238 times.

Quoting Shmendr (Reply 217):

Does anyone know if P3 Orion / P8 Poseidon can land on an aircraft carrier?

In addition, does anyone know if Australia has aircraft carriers?

Finally, does the US DOD show the current position of its aircraft carriers? If there is one near/in the Indian Ocean?

1. No
2. No
3. No (highly classified)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: marosbts
Posted 2014-03-19 15:19:10 and read 33871 times.

Well, it definetly seems that it will be very very difficult to find the plane. The person which is behind this plot simply wants to do so.

In my opinion what happened is that one of the pilots simply deactivated everything which could trace the plane, then programmed a new route into the FMC and after he did so most likely depresurized the cabin. The ghost plane then simply continued en route to face its doom once the fuel ran out.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: gatorman96
Posted 2014-03-19 15:19:24 and read 33772 times.

Quoting Shmendr (Reply 217):

Does anyone know if P3 Orion / P8 Poseidon can land on an aircraft carrier?
No, they can't

In addition, does anyone know if Australia has aircraft carriers?
They do not

Finally, does the US DOD show the current position of its aircraft carriers? If there is one near/in the Indian Ocean?

You can bet there is a carrier group near the Middle East and in the Pacific, but they would not reposition for a commercial aircraft SAR mission.


[Edited 2014-03-19 15:20:09]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: ptcflyer
Posted 2014-03-19 15:21:32 and read 33876 times.

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 200):

My thinking is stuck on "why this flight" versus a Europe bound or longer scheduled flight. One answer is that this flight was on the longer end of only requiring 2 pilots. Crew rest facilities may not be used. Question: What are crew rest facilities on this plane? Could unknown person(s) hide in the crew rest area undetected at before departure?
Have not come across any discussion of this as a scenario.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-19 15:21:47 and read 33931 times.

CNN is solidly sticking behind the pre-programmed angle. Schmidt, from NYT, is on the show and also mentioned. They probably have some evidence that has not been disclosed.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Phishphan70
Posted 2014-03-19 15:33:23 and read 32836 times.

Quoting ptcflyer (Reply 223):
My thinking is stuck on "why this flight" versus a Europe bound or longer scheduled flight.

This flight because obviously there are some issues with security and customs in KL. Regardless of what actually happened to this flight, one thing we do know is that they let two folks onto the flight who claimed to be people they weren't.

Why there? Because you can get away with it there

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: TSS
Posted 2014-03-19 15:35:21 and read 32622 times.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 1):
Let's face it folks. The search for MH 370 is too slow because we lack a resource to search thousands of square kilometers of the Earth's surface fairly quickly outside of satellites.

It's time to call in the U-2S and RQ-4 Global Hawk from the USAF or the Myasishchev M-55 from the Russian Air Force to scan the surface from a height of 60,000 feet--a height high enough to scan many thousands of square kilometers of the Earth's surface on a single flight.

I was thinking much the same thing myself.
(Sidebar: Regarding the use of U2s, I thought by now those had all been decommissioned and/or broken up. I do distinctly recall having seen one in an aerial view of a military aircraft boneyard, but it may have been merely mothballed until needed.)

Quoting rwessel (Reply 131):
The width of your photographic footprint is pretty much directly proportional to your altitude. For aircraft altitudes the curvature of the earth is pretty much irrelevant, since almost all imaging is down with a very steep "down" angle. So assuming we had reconnaissance aircraft flying at 30,000ft, it would just take them twice as many passes if the same length lens were used as for the higher flying aircraft.

The main advantage of high altitude is that you’re harder to shoot at, which is not an issue here. On the plus side, the lower altitude will naturally increase the resolution of your imaging.

All true, but wouldn't the higher-flying aircraft be able to cover twice as much area in a single pass, albeit at a lower resolution? Or do the higher-flying aircraft have a lower relative ground speed making the net result a wash? If that's the case then the one remaining benefit of the higher-flying aircraft would be their ability to overfly and photograph hostile or at least "unfriendly" areas of interest.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: ptcflyer
Posted 2014-03-19 15:36:56 and read 32787 times.

Quoting Phishphan70 (Reply 225):

Agree with this assessment, But why this flight from kUL?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: UALWN
Posted 2014-03-19 15:38:02 and read 32954 times.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 208):
The Pakistan landing theory makes slightly more sense than the contortions some people have been doing the past couple of days to shoehorn some sort of mechanical emergency into this incident.

The Pakistan landing theory may or may not make sense, but retired Lt. Gen. McInerney surely does not make any:

"Of course there now appears to be evidence that there was a direct course through India flying in the shadow of a Singapore flight 68. "

"The only thing that I have seen that is starting to become verified is the report from Boeing saying they believe the airplane was in Pakistan."

What is he talking about? Evidence of shadowing SQ 68? Where? Boeing saying the plane is in Pakistan? When?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: N328KF
Posted 2014-03-19 15:41:47 and read 32538 times.

Quoting Shmendr (Reply 217):

Does anyone know if P3 Orion / P8 Poseidon can land on an aircraft carrier?

In addition, does anyone know if Australia has aircraft carriers?

Finally, does the US DOD show the current position of its aircraft carriers? If there is one near/in the Indian Ocean?
Quoting MD80Nut (Reply 219):
No to all.

Except... it depends upon how you define "aircraft carrier:"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canberra-class_landing_helicopter_dock

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-19 15:44:14 and read 32296 times.

Quoting psolk (Reply 212):

Why did it take so long when they knew where the survivors were?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: coolian2
Posted 2014-03-19 15:46:08 and read 32115 times.

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 230):
Why did it take so long when they knew where the survivors were?

Technology. AF447 is the best modern day comparison to the Titanic.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-19 15:46:28 and read 32280 times.

Quoting UALWN (Reply 228):

That's interesting, only because I heard somebody else mention Boeing knowing about the a/c being in Pakistan. I can't remember the source, but it was over the weekend, I believe.

[Edited 2014-03-19 15:49:15]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: BridYYC
Posted 2014-03-19 15:49:22 and read 32051 times.

Quoting ptcflyer (Reply 223):
My thinking is stuck on "why this flight" versus a Europe bound or longer scheduled flight. One answer is that this flight was on the longer end of only requiring 2 pilots. Crew rest facilities may not be used. Question: What are crew rest facilities on this plane? Could unknown person(s) hide in the crew rest area undetected at before departure?
Have not come across any discussion of this as a scenario.

The answer is because this was the flight that this Pilot or Co-Pilot was flying. Why this particular flight he/them were flying versus others that he/them have flown? Just timing.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: UALWN
Posted 2014-03-19 15:51:18 and read 32000 times.

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 232):
That's interesting, only because I heard somebody else mention Boeing knowing about the a/c being in Pakistan.

Yeah, well, according to the general it "is starting to become verified".  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: MD80Nut
Posted 2014-03-19 15:51:30 and read 31852 times.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 229):
Except... it depends upon how you define "aircraft carrier:"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canberra-class_landing_helicopter_dock

True, but they seem to call their a "landing helicopter dock." Just a different type of aircraft carrier. I didn't know Australia was getting those.

Cheers, Ralph

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-19 15:58:03 and read 31390 times.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 201):
burned a hole in the skin. They never found a conclusive cause just guesswork and recommendations.

No way it would have flown for 7 hrs with that fire.

Quoting psolk (Reply 212):
Took 75 years to find the titanic after it was underwater...

70 years to develop the technology.....

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-19 16:10:06 and read 30419 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 236):
No way it would have flown for 7 hrs with that fire.

Every fire is different. Ground vs high altitude. Different response by crew. I'm just wondering to what extent the recommendations from the Egyptair fire were carried out either on all 777s or this one. Boeing said apart from their recommended fix, they'd be looking at improving grounding in the area. Did they?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: fooflyboy
Posted 2014-03-19 16:13:51 and read 30605 times.

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 232):
That's interesting, only because I heard somebody else mention Boeing knowing about the a/c being in Pakistan. I can't remember the source, but it was over the weekend, I believe.

This may be it:

http://pamelageller.com/2014/03/boei...ource-missing-plane-pakistan.html/

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-19 16:20:05 and read 29977 times.

Quoting fooflyboy (Reply 238):
This may be it:

"Pamela Geller is the founder, editor and publisher of Atlas Shrugs.com and President of the American Freedom Defense Initiative (AFDI) and Stop Islamization of America (SIOA). She is the author of The Post-American Presidency: The Obama Administration’s War on America, with Robert Spencer (foreword by Ambassador John Bolton) (Simon & Schuster); Freedom or Submission: On the Dangers of Islamic Extremism and American Complacency; and Stop the Islamization of America: A Practical Guide to the Resistance (WND Books). She is also a regular columnist for World Net Daily,the American Thinker,Breitbart.com and other publications. - See more at: http://pamelageller.com/about/#sthash.y5yXFiZU.dpuf"

Ugh.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: keegd76
Posted 2014-03-19 16:22:59 and read 29601 times.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 229):
Except... it depends upon how you define "aircraft carrier:"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canberr..._dock

Other than helicopters the only planes you could land on those would be VTOLs (e.g. Harrier or Osprey)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: na
Posted 2014-03-19 16:25:05 and read 29505 times.

Quoting psolk (Reply 212):

Took 75 years to find the titanic after it was underwater...

And a second to know why she sank.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: chrisair
Posted 2014-03-19 16:25:19 and read 29507 times.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 239):
Pamela Geller

I think Pamela Geller needs to work in more Three Letter Acronyms (TLAs) to her biography. It'd really help.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: CaliAtenza
Posted 2014-03-19 16:27:14 and read 29671 times.

Flying With Fish ‏@flyingwithfish 2m
My primary DHS source sent me a one word answer for #MH370 flying south. The word is ... wait for it ... “Bull$#!+”

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-19 16:37:11 and read 28853 times.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 239):

Well, that's one mystery solved.   

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Tangowhisky
Posted 2014-03-19 16:40:43 and read 28450 times.

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 25):
Not sure what you mean by central database, but the fueling company and the airline know exactly how much fuel was loaded into MH370. The fuel provider would like to get paid and the airline wants to make sure they aren't paying too much. I can assure you the authorities involved in the investigation have already viewed these records and know how much fuel was on board MH370.

The investigators have chosen not to reveal these details and when you think about it, why should they? We have no right to know what these values are.

Agreed, But is there a way we can estimate how much fuel was on board by knowing that the airplane was already at FL350 under 40 minutes of flight (just prior to transponder being turned off). So what is the maximum weight a 777-200ER need to be safely at that altitude? We can estimate the fuel load by subtracting the OEW and approximated payload from that max weight Maybe some 777 pilots know the answer to this.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Burkhard
Posted 2014-03-19 16:45:21 and read 28187 times.

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 220):
No (highly classified)

Not really. CVN75 is the nearest currently.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: zeke
Posted 2014-03-19 16:51:29 and read 27859 times.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 245):
Agreed, But is there a way we can estimate how much fuel was on board by knowing that the airplane was already at FL350 under 40 minutes of flight (just prior to transponder being turned off). So what is the maximum weight a 777-200ER need to be safely at that altitude? We can estimate the fuel load by subtracting the OEW and approximated payload from that max weight Maybe some 777 pilots know the answer to this.

I did this a few days back for another member that asked me

Given the initial cruise was FL350, that is optimum weight for 240t (Boeing books).

Green 777-200ER - 130t
Cabin - 14t
Catering 3.5t
Crew and baggage - 1.4t
Flight kit 0.4t

OEW - 149.3t

227 pax and baggage - 22.7t
Cargo 10t (guess)
ZFW = 182t

240-182 = 58t

58t/7.7t/hr = 7.5 hrs endurance

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Tangowhisky
Posted 2014-03-19 16:53:37 and read 27629 times.

Zeke. Thank you. I guess that settles that.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: boacvc10
Posted 2014-03-19 16:55:41 and read 27739 times.

A.net community, I just heard a perfect and knowledgeable quick, professional brief by an interviewee on CNN, and I do think that he needs to be heard strongly. But at the same time, I must say I was very much annoyed by Erin Burnett who I think should be asked not to participate in any Q&A about this unfortunate incident, ever again. I have zero respect for her, as a journalist, presenter, and her lack of empathy and pretty illogical train of questions, racing for each and every breathless moment.

If you can, play back the last (~1938 EST 3/19/2014) segment where Lt. Col. Michael Kay (RAF, Rtd) was interviewed.

If I was paying for CNN, Erin's bad handling of this crucial interview would have pushed me to terminate my subscription. As I am on a cable network, it comes as part of all bundles. But if CNN want's to lose customers, by putting up presenters who have no empathy or try to understand what they are reporting (She was brisk with the passenger family protests news segment, brisk with Bill the Science Guy's questions, brisk with pretty much all reporting on MH370, and does she even show that she cares?

Compared with Dan Rather, or Bernard Shaw, Erin is really inappropriate here. But back to topic:

Michael Kay asked the relevant question, if the radar block disappeared from the controllers screen, were alarms raised? Was any attempt made to coordinate between centers (around KUL) to locate the aircraft before the scheduled handover to ATC? Was ATC tracking the aircraft towards departure track, and did they take any action during the time the transponder was turned off/stopped transmitting and the time of the handover? Those missing actions might be more important than the event of a hijack itself, were there any affiliated parties working in ATC that allowed this aircraft to escape?


Why wasn't the lack of MH370 transponder data not a cause to interrogate it on VHF? Why did the ATC (who should have been looking at the radar display) not ask the aircraft to identify themselves or to cycle transponders?

Does this not indicate significant liability on the ATC, or other agency, rather than MH ? If 370 had a genuine accident causing its transponder to stop in service, those extra few minutes would and could have saved lives .. IMHO.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 17:05:37 and read 26836 times.

Quoting boacvc10 (Reply 249):
if the radar block disappeared from the controllers screen, were alarms raised?

The transponder was disabled and the plane made its turn right at handoff from Malaysian ATC (or maybe Singapore SSR) to Vietnam. Apparently it fell into a crack in the system. That's one of the things that makes the incident look really suspicious (i.e., not just some hardware failure or pilot error).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-19 17:06:31 and read 26974 times.

I think this is significant. So, watching AC 360 on CNN. He just stated that from the ACARS transmission at 1:07L it was determined that the change in path was programmed into the flight management computer. So, it is that last ACARS. How does this change things or if anything at all?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-19 17:08:50 and read 27003 times.

Quoting boacvc10 (Reply 249):
Lt. Col. Michael Kay (RAF, Rtd)

   There aren't a lot of Lt. Colonels in the Royal Air Force. Have I got the wrong RAF?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 17:09:25 and read 27056 times.

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 251):
So, it is that last ACARS. How does this change things or if anything at all?

You're about 300 posts behind. The re-programmed FMS remains a subject of confusion. Refer to rcair1's sanity check.

[Edited 2014-03-19 17:11:40]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-19 17:17:12 and read 26428 times.

Quoting boacvc10 (Reply 249):
Michael Kay asked the relevant question, if the radar block disappeared from the controllers screen, were alarms raised? Was any attempt made to coordinate between centers (around KUL) to locate the aircraft before the scheduled handover to ATC? Was ATC tracking the aircraft towards departure track, and did they take any action during the time the transponder was turned off/stopped transmitting and the time of the handover? Those missing actions might be more important than the event of a hijack itself, were there any affiliated parties working in ATC that allowed this aircraft to escape?

Why wasn't the lack of MH370 transponder data not a cause to interrogate it on VHF? Why did the ATC (who should have been looking at the radar display) not ask the aircraft to identify themselves or to cycle transponders?

Does this not indicate significant liability on the ATC, or other agency, rather than MH ? If 370 had a genuine accident causing its transponder to stop in service, those extra few minutes would and could have saved lives .. IMHO.

Planes regularly "fall off" secondary radar, for example if a transponder malfunctions. It is not, per se, cause for suspicion.

The fact that this was between controllers means the old controller had already relinquished responsibility and the new controller had not contacted the plane yet. So it fell between the cracks, if you will.

As hivue says, this coincidence makes it look suspicious. It still does not necessarily imply malicious intent.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-19 17:19:28 and read 26285 times.

Quoting boacvc10 (Reply 249):

You ever notice how bored Erin Burnett looks when it's not her turn to speak.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-19 17:19:42 and read 26304 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 253):
You're about 300 posts behind. The re-programmed FMS remains a subject of confusion. Refer to rcair1's sanity check.

  I read it, but it was unclear at that time if that information was transmitted via ACARS, no? There was confusing surrounding it.

It was widely being reported that changed fight path was programmed, but it was not being reported from where they got the information. Now, it looks like it was from the last ACARS transmission.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-19 17:23:23 and read 26050 times.

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 255):
You ever notice how bored Erin Burnett looks when it's not her turn to speak.

Off topic, but really? I thought she did a good job. I also like Schiavo and Abend's input.

[Edited 2014-03-19 17:23:56]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: thunderboltdrgn
Posted 2014-03-19 17:27:05 and read 25929 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 252):
There aren't a lot of Lt. Colonels in the Royal Air Force. Have I got the wrong RAF?

Is it this guy?: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-kay/

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 17:29:38 and read 25867 times.

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 256):
Now, it looks like it was from the last ACARS transmission.

Apparently that's what CNN is saying. They could be right.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-19 17:30:50 and read 25569 times.

Quoting thunderboltdrgn (Reply 258):

Quoting David L (Reply 252):
There aren't a lot of Lt. Colonels in the Royal Air Force. Have I got the wrong RAF?

Is it this guy?: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-kay/

David L's point was that the RAF does not use the rank of Lt. Colonel. The RAF equivalent rank would be Wing Commander.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: William60
Posted 2014-03-19 17:32:11 and read 25473 times.

If this plane disappeared due to nefarious behaviour by the person piloting it,
Then a fake-south, go north move is a distinct possibility.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 17:32:41 and read 25425 times.

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 255):
You ever notice how bored Erin Burnett looks when it's not her turn to speak.

If we're reduced to critiquing the appearance of media talking heads there must really be a dearth of information.  

[Edited 2014-03-19 17:33:13]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: PanAmPaul
Posted 2014-03-19 17:33:04 and read 25583 times.

I'm legitimately confused. "We have the radar but can't tell you."

Seriously?

New Radar Data Found for Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight

Quote:
The investigation of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight continued as officials said that they had received additional radar data.

At a news conference Wednesday, the country’s defense minister and acting transport minister, Hishammuddin Hussein, told reporters that they had received new data from an unspecified country or countries....

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-19 17:33:16 and read 25543 times.

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 25):
The investigators have chosen not to reveal these details and when you think about it, why should they? We have no right to know what these values are.

Then we cannot discount the possibility of enough fuel to fly to Antarctica or US. We have a lost plane without knowing how far it would go. I don't see why that info should be withheld. Unless, like many other things no proper audit.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-19 17:33:30 and read 25510 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 252):
There aren't a lot of Lt. Colonels in the Royal Air Force. Have I got the wrong RAF?

Ah, never mind. It seems he was a helicopter pilot so it could be phenomenon of the Joint Helicopter Command setup. I hadn't thought of that.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 260):
David L's point was that the RAF does not use the rank of Lt. Colonel.

It was but I was a bit quick off the mark.  embarrassed 

[Edited 2014-03-19 17:35:25]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-19 17:38:28 and read 25182 times.

Quoting PanAmPaul (Reply 263):
I'm legitimately confused. "We have the radar but can't tell you."

Seriously?

In other words the other country showed them their radar data on the condition that they didn't show it to the world.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: B747400ERF
Posted 2014-03-19 17:39:07 and read 25183 times.

Not sure if this has been talked about yet, so many replies... but fsx sometimes gets a corrupted logbook, and you have to delete it, as well as the default flight, to fix some problems. I would not be surprised if the authorities who do not understand this, are reading too much into it.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-19 17:41:14 and read 24998 times.

Quoting Tapir (Reply 264):
Then we cannot discount the possibility of enough fuel to fly to Antarctica or US

Well, maybe not all of us.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Tapir
Posted 2014-03-19 17:42:06 and read 24929 times.

Quoting SQA350 (Reply 211):
country

I believe so. Otherwise, they would have stopped searching in many places.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-19 17:45:57 and read 24789 times.

Quoting B747400ERF (Reply 267):

It's not like it hurts the investigation.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-19 17:46:47 and read 24821 times.

A link to a different article about 'Swift':

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/201...ave-skimped-on-cheap-plane-upgrade

"The paper's report suggests that upgrading to a system called 'Swift' – which wholesales for around $10 a flight – would have enabled MH370 to send out tracking signals even after the plane's communication systems had been turned off.

A system similar to 'Swift' helped searched find the Air France jet which crashed into the Atlantic Ocean in 2009.

An unnamed satellite industry official told the paper that many airlines had upgraded to 'Swift', which he likened to a mobile phone app.

The use of 'Swift' is mandatory on planes flying in the North Atlantic corridor between Europe and the US but not on other routes. "

Does anybody know the truth of this? Especially: 1) Did MH not use Swift? 2) Did a 'similar' system help locate AF447? 3) Is Swift mandatory on US - Europe North Atlantic flights?

Quoting CaliAtenza (Reply 243):
Flying With Fish ‏@flyingwithfish 2m
My primary DHS source sent me a one word answer for #MH370 flying south. The word is ... wait for it ... “Bull$#!+”

The North Route is more likely IMO. It also makes the shadowing theory more possible. However, if a government does know this or something more but allows other countries to search other areas knowing that they are essentially in the wrong area and will find nothing... well, IMO they are allowing others to waste resources that could be put to other uses.

[Edited 2014-03-19 17:49:47]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: N328KF
Posted 2014-03-19 17:52:16 and read 24395 times.

Quoting MD80Nut (Reply 235):
True, but they seem to call their a "landing helicopter dock." Just a different type of aircraft carrier. I didn't know Australia was getting those.
Quoting keegd76 (Reply 240):
Other than helicopters the only planes you could land on those would be VTOLs (e.g. Harrier or Osprey)

See above. It's still an aircraft carrier. A Harrier or F-35 is a legitimate fighter, and the former has killed more than it's been killed. What's the real difference between a helicopter, through-deck cruiser, or a small carrier with a ski jump? Very little.

Quoting CaliAtenza (Reply 243):

Flying With Fish ‏@flyingwithfish 2m
My primary DHS source sent me a one word answer for #MH370 flying south. The word is ... wait for it ... “Bull$#!+”

I smell bullshit, but it's not what he thinks.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: William60
Posted 2014-03-19 17:53:13 and read 24316 times.

Anyone know, has it been said, the extent of search efforts to the north?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-19 17:53:48 and read 24448 times.

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 251):
So, it is that last ACARS. How does this change things or if anything at all?

What it changes - or informs - is that waypoint changes were programed before the hand off.
Now - what does that mean?
We don't know.
- Where they playing/practicing with the FMS? (new FO)
- Where they coerced?
- Were they planning it?
- Was there some ongoing mechanical issue that was not to the level of PanPan , but that they were concerned about and thus programed a waypoint to that 13K airport.
We don't know.

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 256):
It was widely being reported that changed fight path was programmed, but it was not being reported from where they got the information. Now, it looks like it was from the last ACARS transmission.

This was first reported 24+ hrs ago.
The only way they COULD know is if it was ACARS.
(this is all in the sanity check.)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: rfields5421
Posted 2014-03-19 17:58:45 and read 24115 times.

Quoting Jetlagged (Reply 115):
Quoting na (Reply 24):If they had no evidence or discarded evidence of a plane flying over their territory for quite some time how do you call it then? Bad equipment, insufficient surveillance, ineffectivemess of the military and so on, a lot comes together. I know I am being simplistic by saying its either incompetence or they were hiding evidence. Deliberately, because thats the bottomline it comes to. I grant them the benefit that they have to deal with a never-before-seen situation.
You said this revelation was an indication of Malaysia's incompetance and that is not the case if they did not have the data. The information about the additional comms from the aircraft came from the USA. We do not know whether the Malaysians had access to that data as well, so we must give them the benefit of the doubt that they did not.

Two things.

1) - Regarding the primary radar data.

The radar data a controller, civilian or military, sees has been run through several filters to automatically screen out ground clutter, biologicals (birds), weather related returns, etc. It doesn't show every thing.

The information I've seen I indicates that the primary return was not a consistent track across the peninsula. It was an intermittent return that came and went. That could be explained by an aircraft flying low - 5,000 ft which is very low given the terrain in the middle of the peninsula. The description would also indicate that the primary return was filtered so that the controllers on duty never saw a consistent return on the night the plane disappeared. What they would have seen is just an occasional blip that could not be confirmed as an aircraft.

Normal SOP anywhere in the world after an aircraft accident it to pull the radar tapes (or disk drives) and review the primary radar data unfiltered in its raw format. This is a lengthy forensic task because by definition you cannot use a computer to filter out things. Four days to decide that a series of occasionally contacts might be the missing aircraft is about normal. Also, the Malaysian government turned over their raw ATC data to the US Civil Air Patrol Radar Search Team. That group is the best in the world at tracking those type contacts. It is pretty much what the CAP has to do almost every week to find missing GA aircraft in the US.

The Malaysians found something on the rader data but could not confirm it was MH370.

They sent the raw data to the US Civil Air Patrol - who are the best in the world at finding primary radar contacts and tracking them. Which the CAP does every few weeks in the US to try to find missing GA aircraft. Their analysis apparently determined a strong likely hood that the few unconnected contacts the military controllers saw in widely separate areas were one aircraft - most likely MH370.


2) - Malaysian incompetence claims

The only level of incompetence I see demonstrated is in the field of public relations.

Almost all the 'facts' have come from anonymous sources. Somebody who has a cousin whose maid knows the wife of the gardner of an official in the investigation.

The Malaysian briefers respond to and attempt to clarify or explain those random, incomplete, unsubstantiated claims.

They should take pointers from the US NTSB Press Briefings.

Begin with a definitive statement of what has been done and found and confirmed since the last brief.

Do not report incomplete data.

Do not respond to reporters who ask questions about anything except the data presented by the official briefer.

Reporters who interrupt or press questions / claims about claims outside the briefed material will be warned, then banned from further briefings.

Unfortunately, there really isn't a lot to report about progress except X area has been searched with no results. Do try to expand the results to include theories and data which has not been solidly proven.

Malaysian authorities have a lot of press leakers. People in the know of the investigation who are talking to either family and friends, or maybe to reporters.

Quoting slinky09 (Reply 160):
With AF447 debris was found within two days of the search as a comparison, although the last position was known.

Debris was found the first day by aircraft, but none was recovered until the third day when ships arrived in the area.

Despite the nearly 10 hour delay after loss of contact, when search aircraft arrived and began to search near the last reported position - they quickly found debris. Had the aircraft flown for another hour before crashing - it could have taken weeks to find the debris.

Quoting Shmendr (Reply 217):
Finally, does the US DOD show the current position of its aircraft carriers? If there is one near/in the Indian Ocean?

The US Navy does not. However several sites like this one give people a good idea where they are:

http://www.gonavy.jp/CVLocation.html

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 230):
Why did it take so long when they knew where the survivors were?

One reason it took so long to find the Titanic besides technology is that the official reports on the sinking location were wrong. They actually didn't know exactly where the ship went down or the survivors were picked up. Not close enough to focus an underwater search.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 254):
As hivue says, this coincidence makes it look suspicious. It still does not necessarily imply malicious intent.

With AF447 - the exact same thing happened. The aircraft said good by to one Oceanic Center and never contacted the next one. Cape Verde never acknowledged responsibility for AF447, nor was it their 'responsibility' to sound an alarm for lost contact.

But in the MH370 case - within 5 minutes - Vietnam controllers were in contact with Malaysian controllers asking for status on the aircraft. Within 15 minutes Vietnamese and Malaysian controllers were in contact with their militaries, and initiated an airport search in Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam to see if the aircraft had landed at an airport for some reason. Just over an hour after last contact - Vietnamese and Malaysian ATC had initiated a full scale missing aircraft alert.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-19 18:11:23 and read 23430 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 274):
The only way they COULD know is if it was ACARS.

I read that, but obviously missed it!  
Quoting rcair1 (Reply 274):
Now - what does that mean?
We don't know.

That is the big question. The eerie silence after the aircraft disappeared is what is so bizarre about this.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: N328KF
Posted 2014-03-19 18:15:10 and read 23319 times.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 275):
One reason it took so long to find the Titanic besides technology is that the official reports on the sinking location were wrong. They actually didn't know exactly where the ship went down or the survivors were picked up. Not close enough to focus an underwater search.

Well, not to mention that nobody wanted to pony up for the investigation. Titanic was only found because it was a convenient cover story for other work (Thresher and Scorpion) by Ballard, who was working for Woods Hole and the U.S. Navy. Woods Hole also found AF447, and between those two, they are responsible for most of the major deep sea finds in the past 30 or so years.

I would put good money on Woods Hole being enlisted in this project, if MH370's location can be reasonably narrowed down.

[Edited 2014-03-19 18:21:37]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-19 18:17:45 and read 23286 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 274):
(this is all in the sanity check.)

Just went back and reread it. I think the networks should read it too!   Great job!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-19 18:19:24 and read 23166 times.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 275):
But in the MH370 case - within 5 minutes - Vietnam controllers were in contact with Malaysian controllers asking for status on the aircraft. Within 15 minutes Vietnamese and Malaysian controllers were in contact with their militaries, and initiated an airport search in Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam to see if the aircraft had landed at an airport for some reason. Just over an hour after last contact - Vietnamese and Malaysian ATC had initiated a full scale missing aircraft alert.

And MH370 apparently continued on its mysterious (if not merry) way for another 5+ hours.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37
Username: jetblueguy22
Posted 2014-03-19 18:21:29 and read 24059 times.

Hi All,

This thread has gotten long and Part 38 has been created. It can be found here MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 38 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 19 2014 in Civil Aviation) .

All posts made after the lock will be removed for housekeeping purposes only.

Regards,
Pat


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