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Topic: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: SA7700
Posted 2014-03-20 11:42:10 and read 55177 times.

Due to length part 39 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 40:

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 1 (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 15 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16 (by SA7700 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 17 (by 777ER Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 18 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 19 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 20 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 21 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 22 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 23 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 28 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 32 (by ManuCH Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 33 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34 (by SA7700 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35 (by SA7700 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 36 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37 (by SA7700 Mar 19 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 38 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 19 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39 (by SA7700 Mar 20 2014 in Civil Aviation)



**********************************************************************************************

**** ADDITIONAL NEWS REPORTS ****

MH370: search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane extended to southern Indian Ocean

Najib's full press statement on MH370

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: What we know so far

MISSING MH370: Timeline

Flight MH370: Police focus on pilots as search for airliner goes on - live updates

Flight MH370: New timeline casts doubt on pilot deception theory

MISSING MH370: ACARS cannot be disabled

MISSING MH370: Search for missing aircraft above politics: Hishamuddin


***********************************************************************************************


SOME IMPORTANT REMINDERS FOR ALL OUR MEMBERS TO CONSIDER BEFORE POSTING IN THIS THREAD:

**** Out of respect to the crew, passengers and also family members; close to those onboard MH370; please keep science fiction theories and content related to past / current movies or possible future movie rights out of these threads. ****

**** PLEASE DO NOT REPEAT QUESTIONS AND SCENARIOS THAT HAS BEEN COVERED AND DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS THREADS AND WHICH DO NOT CONTRIBUTE OR APPLY, IN A CONSTRUCTIVE MANNER, TOWARDS THIS CONVERSATION ANY LONGER. ****

**** Please make an effort to read through some of the threads, if possible the latest in the series, before adding your own comments and theories to the current, active thread on this issue. ****

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Enjoy the forums!

Regards and thanks for your co-operation,

SA7700

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-20 11:51:27 and read 55075 times.

Quoting COEWR787 (Reply 248):

Swissair 111 was 21 minutes from the smell of smoke to impact. Can't see how we are going to compare that to MH370.

So hypoxic pilots programmed in 3 waypoints? Or pilots with a cockpit on fire programmed in three waypoints?

The plane didn't make weird meanderings, if the info we have is to be believed.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: AR385
Posted 2014-03-20 11:52:17 and read 55030 times.

I would like to make a request, with all due respect.

In the interest of making these threads a bit richer with info. can we talk more about the recent discovery by the ASMA? and the breaking news resulting from that? At least for today.

I don´t think at this stage we need to be writing stuff about "piano wire being used as a killing instrument in the cockpit" as if this were The Sopranos or that the plane is sitting in "Pakistan waiting for phase II" It just clutters the threads unnecessarily and makes it too hard to keep up.

Valid hypothesis sure, but things like the above...

Maybe we can retake The Soprano hypothesis and the 777-as-a-rocket once the ASMA discoveries turned up concrete leads, wether it is or it is not the plane.

I apologize if I come off as pedant.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 11:57:20 and read 54817 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 3):
can we talk more about the recent discovery by the ASMA? and the breaking news resulting from that? At least for today.

Not much to talk about until daybreak, which should be in 3-something hours in Perth; aircraft might be en-route before that.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-20 11:59:01 and read 54688 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 3):

Well, I don't think they have discovered anything to talk about.

Have they?

All we have are the sat pics, which look basically like the other sat pics we have been looking at.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-20 12:03:47 and read 54443 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 3):
Valid hypothesis sure, but things like the above...

The problem is that those two examples are valid hypotheses in this unprecedented incident.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: decoder
Posted 2014-03-20 12:12:18 and read 53887 times.

On a slightly brighter note, it seems like the prevailing currents are pushing the debris towards Australia, and not away from it.

[Edited 2014-03-20 12:13:22]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: COEWR787
Posted 2014-03-20 12:13:03 and read 53893 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 2):
The plane didn't make weird meanderings, if the info we have is to be believed.

Since none of us have cactually seen the path flown and have only heard various reports ranging from "they followed the waypoints exactly", to "they sort of went by the waypoints". I have no idea what to believe. So if someone wishes to believe one version of it and build theory upon it that is fine. But it does not make that theory any more valid than any other based on a different set of reports.

Ergo there really is no strong basis for discounting the fire theory. Similarly unfortunately there probably is no strong basis for discounting the rogue theory either purely based on the various reports of paths followed.

I know this sort of an inconclusive position is somewhat unsatisfactory. But sometimes that is the nature of reality that is obtained.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: peterinlisbon
Posted 2014-03-20 12:17:47 and read 53676 times.

I don't understand how the Maldivian sighting is just being ignored. A whole island full of people are saying they saw the plane flying low at exactly the right time and as the government just says "we didn't see it on radar" aand that's the end of it.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-20 12:21:59 and read 53386 times.

Search aircraft will depart YPEA at 2130Z, which would put them (P-3s) in the search area around 0130Z. In other words, no news until after 2130EDT, when they reach the search zone.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-20 12:23:33 and read 53277 times.

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 10):
I don't understand how the Maldivian sighting is just being ignored.

Because it's physically impossible for it to have been there (fuel). Read the previous couple of threads.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: canoecarrier
Posted 2014-03-20 12:25:03 and read 53146 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 4):
Not much to talk about until daybreak, which should be in 3-something hours in Perth; aircraft might be en-route before that.
Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 5):
Well, I don't think they have discovered anything to talk about.

I think that's his point. This thread would be a little easier to keep up with if it didn't generate 2-3 additional parts a day. Based on what we know and the fact that nearly all hypotheses have been discussed here ad nauseam already, I'm not sure quantity of posts is better than quality at this point.

[Edited 2014-03-20 12:28:35]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Speedbird128
Posted 2014-03-20 12:27:06 and read 52987 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 3):
I would like to make a request, with all due respect.

And I would like to back that...

We've had 39 threads of unadulterated no-holds-barred-never-seen-before-hypotheses-and-conspiracies-and-everything-inbetween.

Here's a sobering thought - lets not forget that there are 239 *people*, that are missing. Souls out there. Its not just 5 letters and numbers (MH370). That is the subject of all this speculation.

The only 'fact' is its still missing. And beating on the crew or whoever, to be brutally honest, is wearing thin. I know I don't have to read it (I am here out of my own will, bringing with me the technical goodies behind ATC and SMC), but could we respect these missing human beings a little more?

Some here will be right and some here be wrong. But I doubt now that anything could be added in respect of speculation that hasn't repeatedly come up in the previous 39 threads... And wading through chemistry discussions is a waste of time.

Thanks go out to RCAIR1 for his daily sanity check/collation of the current information whether it be debunked or valid.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: akberc
Posted 2014-03-20 12:27:23 and read 52984 times.

Quoting BoeingBear (Reply 255):
From Reply 255 in Thread 39: In case you haven't heard, earlier this week the Israeli government massively extended its ADIZ to something like a 2.5-hour range from its airspace. Do you think that's just a coincidence?
lves out.

Maybe not a co-incidence, just prudence. However, most likely not based on a confirmed imminent attack from 9M-MRO. The news told us that Israel conducted an air strike on Syria yesterday, so it is logical to put up one's air defences when breaching another country's airspace as any attack from the other country during the attack would be justified self-defence.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-20 12:28:17 and read 52856 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 11):
Search aircraft will depart YPEA at 2130Z, which would put them (P-3s) in the search area around 0130Z. In other words, no news until after 2130EDT, when they reach the search zone.

That's way too long. Tell them to hurry up...

EDIT: I should clarify that this was supposed to be funny.

[Edited 2014-03-20 12:33:15]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: JimJupiter
Posted 2014-03-20 12:29:09 and read 52883 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 3):
In the interest of making these threads a bit richer with info. can we talk more about the recent discovery by the ASMA? and the breaking news resulting from that? At least for today.

  

I want to post this link again, sombeody else posted it late in thread #39:

http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/e...1en/img/map_strategic_passages.png

For the "no way nobody sees this in 12 days, it's a cover up!" crowd. Please, spot the location of todays search area and estimate, how much ship (and air, for that matter) traffic the area down there ususally sees.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: namezero111111
Posted 2014-03-20 12:29:55 and read 52878 times.

On another note:

Does anyone else find the AMSA coverage detail / information provided to be exceptional?
Compared to what we were getting at the Malaysian press conferences, I think Australia's transparency is nothing short of stellar.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-20 12:30:54 and read 52733 times.

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 13):
I think that's his point. This thread would be a little easier to keep up with if it didn't generate 2-3 additional parts a day. Based on what we know and the fact that nearly all theories have been discussed here ad nauseam already, I'm not sure quantity of posts is better than quality at this point.

True. A lot of posts are repeats as well. I try to keep up and not post what's already been covered.

rcair has done a great job.

Perhaps the mods could close the thread until an hour before news is expected from down under?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: flyzapper
Posted 2014-03-20 12:32:00 and read 52781 times.

Regarding the debris ~1500 miles from Perth, I did some research about surface currents in the Indian Ocean and the direction of the currents. If the plane crashed 12 days ago, the debris could have drifted 150-300 miles NE towards Australia using conservative numbers, over 500 miles using faster currents and drift speeds. Let's use 250 miles as a good guess. Would the current location of the debris and the back-extrapolated crash point of 250 miles SW of the current location put the possible crash location outside of the south corridor of possible last locations?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: laddb
Posted 2014-03-20 12:36:23 and read 52340 times.

Quoting namezero111111 (Reply 18):
Does anyone else find the AMSA coverage detail / information provided to be exceptional?

Yes. They are very professional and have shared their information.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: DTWPurserBoy
Posted 2014-03-20 12:38:29 and read 52227 times.

I think the saddest thing about this disaster is that we may never know exactly what happened. It is entirely possible the wreckage will never be found and even if it is, any pilot that took the time to disable the transponders and ACARS would know to pull the breakers for the CVR and FDR. Even if the boxes are found I fear they will be useless. If portions of the cockpit are recovered it may be possible to learn from the settings of various breakers and instruments what happened but at these depths I have serious doubts. This is an awful result for the families and loved ones involved, not knowing where their loved one is resting and why. My heart goes out to them and the thousands of good, decent, professional MAS employees worldwide that are experiencing their own special horror.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: DTW2HYD
Posted 2014-03-20 12:42:49 and read 51966 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 3):
can we talk more about the recent discovery by the ASMA? and the breaking news resulting from that? At least for today.

Ok, staying on theory of the day, one question. Would search planes start at day break or reach site by day break?

Also, I think no head of the country (any country) should make any statements about this event. This is not a great PR event.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: JoeinTX
Posted 2014-03-20 12:44:50 and read 51815 times.

@DTWPB

I agree. the longer we go from the original act the chances of making real determination about what transpired aboard that airplane diminish. Even if he/they/whoever did not turn off the CVR that fact that the flight carried on for several more hours means that whatever happened in the cockpit (struggle, coordinated effort, "bang")when the aircraft made it's initial westward course change will likely never be known.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-20 12:46:15 and read 52329 times.

I do not think they will find anything, mainly because I don't think the pictures show any debris.

But I am not a photo analyst, and I certainly hope they find the plane.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: SA7700
Posted 2014-03-20 12:46:43 and read 53184 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 19):
Perhaps the mods could close the thread until an hour before news is expected from down under?

Thanks for the suggestion.

Unfortunately that is not a viable option as all the moderators are located in different time zones and not necessarily on duty on a 24/7 basis. Due to fact that we perform our moderating duties during our own spare time, it may happen that we miss a news conference or media release, which would lead to chaos in the forums should the main thread be locked.


Thanks and regards,

SA7700

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-20 12:48:28 and read 53747 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 23):
Would search planes start at day break or reach site by day break?

Reach the site.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 16):
That's way too long. Tell them to hurry up...

Friggin time zones! Obviously they were invented to continue concealing evidence from the public .... And it may be long after 0130Z that there is any news - the P-3s can remain on station for 6+ hours at that range from base. The P-8 has less endurance, which is why it was designed for refueling, but the refueling capability has not yet been implemented.

[Edited 2014-03-20 12:53:51]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: huxrules
Posted 2014-03-20 13:04:42 and read 53055 times.

Well I can see either a bomb or super rapid fire causing the comms issue (one in a million comms issue). Pilots programmed a turn back and the plane did as was required. As for the 45000 ft climb - not sure if it's really real. If it is possibly the pilots were just disoriented. Plane settles and makes the turn and possibly was programmed to head south to any of the runways in Malaysia. But the pilots don't have control and the plane keeps on flying south. I don't know why they aren't looking at the first area of trouble - anything could be in that water. A cargo door or any part of the aircraft would blow the investigation wide open.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: katekebo
Posted 2014-03-20 13:04:43 and read 53780 times.

Don't know if this has been mentioned before, but The Sydney Morning Herald says that the images shared by Australian officials were actually taken by a US satellite and given to the Australians by American intelligence sources.

http://www.smh.com.au/national/missi...arch-for-mh370-20140320-355zt.html

Quote:
When the Australian official took the podium to explain to reporters the discovery of satellite images that might show pieces of MH370, he carefully omitted to tell them the source.
The images were from a US satellite.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: kevinkevin
Posted 2014-03-20 13:06:19 and read 52975 times.

I'm hoping this is the breakthrough we need. I'm praying.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-20 13:10:15 and read 52849 times.

Quoting huxrules (Reply 28):
I don't know why they aren't looking at the first area of trouble

   Where have you been for the last week and a half?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-20 13:11:28 and read 52916 times.

Okay, so the P-8A radar contacts were a freighter and two dolphin pods?

David Wright ABC News reporter:

tweets: Nada today - except for a freighter and 2 pods of dolphins. They'll be back out tomorrow - eager to provide answers to those families #MH370

David Wright ABC News reporter

tweets: Alas our 9 hour trip aboard the P8 - including 3 hours of intensive searching did NOT turn up any evidence of debris...

Here is the British coastal survey ship HMS Echo, which will be joining the southern part of the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines plane

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 65mustang
Posted 2014-03-20 13:12:41 and read 52913 times.

Do you recognize the airport on the screen of the pilots simulator shown in this photo? It looks like Polonia International or maybe Phuket doesn't it?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: spacecadet
Posted 2014-03-20 13:13:05 and read 52594 times.

Quoting JoeinTX (Reply 24):
Even if he/they/whoever did not turn off the CVR that fact that the flight carried on for several more hours means that whatever happened in the cockpit (struggle, coordinated effort, "bang")when the aircraft made it's initial westward course change will likely never be known.

The DFDR records 25 hours of data. The CVR records 2. The CVR wouldn't have anything on it from the initial turn west, but it would have plenty to tell investigators. For example, no sounds at all until fuel starvation would indicate pilot incapacitation. Or maybe the pilot or pilots did say something in the last two hours, indicating they were in control. Maybe the pilot's arguing with a bunch of hijackers about how they're going to run out of fuel. All of those things will be on the recording medium, and any of them will help the investigation.

The DFDR records more than 100 parameters, IIRC, and will answer many questions about exactly what movements the airplane made and how they were made (manually, auto-pilot, whether they were abrupt and amateurish or more like a professional pilot, etc.). It will also more or less rule in or out any mechanical problem. If there was a mechanical issue, it would be recorded as an anomaly on the DFDR. I'm not sure if fire can be deduced directly, but it sure can be indirectly. And if the wreckage is found, it can also be deduced directly. Fire leaves pretty obvious evidence, whether it's underwater for 12 days or 12 years.

If they find the plane, they will know what happened. It doesn't really matter how long it takes.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-20 13:18:14 and read 51905 times.

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 33):

It doesn't look anything like either of them, unless they've expanded incredibly in the last few months.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: redflyer
Posted 2014-03-20 13:19:47 and read 52000 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 25):
I do not think they will find anything, mainly because I don't think the pictures show any debris.

I agree, I'm not sure it's debris from MH370. But, then again, I'm not a photo analyst either. I will say, though, that for an object that is 24m in length, and appears to be about 10m wide, it sure seems awful "boxy" looking with sharp corners on the one end. What from a 777 would be that size (24m x ~10m) AND float for 13 days?

Unless, of course...

Quoting katekebo (Reply 29):
The Sydney Morning Herald says that the images shared by Australian officials were actually taken by a US satellite and given to the Australians by American intelligence sources.

...What the Aussies are seeing is a high resolution and close-up photo of the object that lets them determine with a fair amount of certainty that it's from the 777, and the photo they are sharing with the rest of the world is a dumb'd down version of it which doesn't allow the rest of us commoners to make sense of it.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Trin
Posted 2014-03-20 13:24:07 and read 51315 times.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 34):
The DFDR records 25 hours of data. The CVR records 2. The CVR wouldn't have anything on it from the initial turn west, but it would have plenty to tell investigators. For example, no sounds at all until fuel starvation would indicate pilot incapacitation. Or maybe the pilot or pilots did say something in the last two hours, indicating they were in control. Maybe the pilot's arguing with a bunch of hijackers about how they're going to run out of fuel. All of those things will be on the recording medium, and any of them will help the investigation.

Exactly. A two-hour long CVR recording will be priceless and anybody who asserts otherwise is just burying their head in the sand. Whether something or nothing was said in that two hours, we will know what happened. That, matched up with the DFDR data will provide invaluable data as they piece together this sorry journey.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-20 13:27:07 and read 51500 times.

Quoting katekebo (Reply 29):
Don't know if this has been mentioned before, but The Sydney Morning Herald says that the images shared by Australian officials were actually taken by a US satellite and given to the Australians by American intelligence sources.

Either Sydney Morning Herald or ABC News is reporting incorrectly. ABC News claims that the images were taken by a DigitalGlobe commercial satellite and they provided the pictures to Australia. That is backed by the images having DigitalGlobe copyright as earlier reported in this thread. I don't believe that there exists both military and commercial versions of these images.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/colorados-d...-airlines-search/story?id=22988405

Quote:
"We can confirm that DigitalGlobe has provided imagery to search officials in Australia, and we have been informed by an Australian government official that it was our imagery Prime Minister Abbott referred to in his recent comments," a spokesman for the company said.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Gonzalo
Posted 2014-03-20 13:29:35 and read 50966 times.

Please excuse my ignorance, but I was listening that due to the very far location of the debris off the Australian coast, the time for actual searching for the Orions will be no more than 2 hours.... Doesn't the RAAF have some useful aircraft ( not necessarily Orions ) capable to refuel in flight and stay searching for more time ? Or are they sending a string of Orions to make a serial search covering all the daylight time?

Thanks in advance.

Rgds.
G.

[Edited 2014-03-20 13:31:52]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: JoeinTX
Posted 2014-03-20 13:34:45 and read 50098 times.

@34

Good info. Good to know there'll be something recorded to examine if it's discovered.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-20 13:37:28 and read 49910 times.

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 39):
the time for actual searching for the Orions will be no more tan 2 hours

P-3s (depending on the model) have about 16 hours endurance. Flight time to the search area from YPEA is approximately 4 hours, depending on winds, so they should have 6+ hours on station.

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 39):
Doesn't the RAAF have some useful aircraft ( not necessarily Orions ) capable to refuel in flight and stay searching for more time ?

P-3s are specifically designed for surface and underwater search and reconnaissance. It wouldn't make sense to use less capable aircraft.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 38):
Either Sydney Morning Herald or ABC News is reporting incorrectly.

They're not necessarily incompatible. SMH just reported a U.S. satellite, not a U.S. military satellite. DigitalGlobe is a U.S. company.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: namezero111111
Posted 2014-03-20 13:37:29 and read 49900 times.

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 39):
Or are they sending a string of Orions to make a serial search covering all the daylight time?

There are 4 aircraft involved in this search.
Two Australian planes, one from New Zealand, and one American plane.
Afaik two P3's, one P8, and a C130.

[Edited 2014-03-20 13:39:27]

[Edited 2014-03-20 13:41:22]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: turjo101
Posted 2014-03-20 13:40:30 and read 49521 times.

Those who are still going on about tribal areas of Pakistan - are completely disregarding common sense...Consider the following before bringing up Pakistan again.

1) To get to tribal areas of Pakistan, they'd have to either go over India or around India (ladder would not be possible due to fuel restriction) - and either way the Indian military radar is definitely going to pick this up and not let it slide if an unidentified aircraft was breaching its airspace. they have enough resources to dispatch to investigate. They got almost two hundred SU30 MKIs, if not the Mig 29s, Mirage 2000s or the HAL Tejas fighters.

2) If somehow the plane did go around India (undetected and unchallenged), then why would Pakistan let it into its airspace ?!? Although not in war mode - I think they are keeping a close eye on their radars to ensure nothing from the inventory mentioned above tries to get into its airspace. They also have resources to dispatch in order to investigate (F16s, JF 17s, Mirage IIIs, Vs, and F7s). So why would they let an unidentified aircraft get through, when it can easily belong to India.

3) If the Pakistanis were in on this, you have to keep in mind - large number of them would have to know about this. Civilian and military ATC personnel. How likely is it that one of them would have leaked something anonymously from a net cafe somewhere.

4) Where would it land in the tribal areas without anyone knowing or seeing it since? What airstrip is there in Pakistan that could allow a 777 to land and then remain undetected?

In summary - Pakistan, Iran are highly unlikely as they would be keeping an eye on their air space - and if they were somehow in on this - the India and US was certainly keeping an eye on that stretch of airspace. So if this plane did get to Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan area, more than one government would have had to be complicit.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: flyingturtle
Posted 2014-03-20 13:43:00 and read 49728 times.

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 33):

I've tried to enhance these pictures:

left pane:

http://i60.tinypic.com/2hf48p4.jpg

middle pane:

http://i58.tinypic.com/jzjf5u.jpg

Excuse me for the lack of quality.   


David

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: katekebo
Posted 2014-03-20 13:43:08 and read 49288 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 38):
Either Sydney Morning Herald or ABC News is reporting incorrectly. ABC News claims that the images were taken by a DigitalGlobe commercial satellite and they provided the pictures to Australia. That is backed by the images having DigitalGlobe copyright as earlier reported in this thread. I don't believe that there exists both military and commercial versions of these images.

Well, I think both could be right. The pictures shown to the public may not be the same they used to identify the debris. If you look at the pictures shown to the public (presumably from DigitalGlobe) it's really hard to tell if the suspected objects look like rests / parts of an airplane. I doubt the Australian will come out publicly based on such a weak evidence. They may have other pictures, taken by US intelligence satellites, which provide more convincing evidence, but they are classified and will not be disclosed to the public.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-20 13:44:12 and read 49037 times.

Quoting :
They're not necessarily incompatible. SMH just reported a U.S. satellite, not a U.S. military satellite. DigitalGlobe is a U.S. company.

Yes, but quoting the SMH article:

Quote:
The images were from a US satellite. The Australian Maritime Safety Authority's John Young didn't mention this to the media. Nor was he asked. But he wouldn't have disclosed it in any case.

And quoting member katekebo:

Quoting katekebo (Reply 29):
...the images shared by Australian officials were actually taken by a US satellite and given to the Australians by American intelligence sources.


To me it sounds like the reporter cooked up the story.

[Edited 2014-03-20 13:45:37]

[Edited 2014-03-20 13:53:16]

[Edited 2014-03-20 13:56:28]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-20 13:44:28 and read 49122 times.

Quoting namezero111111 (Reply 42):
Afaik two P3's, one P8, and a C130.

2 RAAF P-3s, 1 RNZAF P-3, 1 USAF P-8. An RAAF C-130 was used yesterday to drop marker buoys (to calculate drift), but I don't know if it will be used today.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: k83713
Posted 2014-03-20 13:48:55 and read 48721 times.

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 33):

It's Amsterdam Schiphol.
https://goo.gl/maps/fj02P


[Edited 2014-03-20 13:49:28]

[Edited 2014-03-20 13:56:45]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: namezero111111
Posted 2014-03-20 13:50:19 and read 48283 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 46):
Quoting namezero111111 (Reply 42):
They're not necessarily incompatible. SMH just reported a U.S. satellite, not a U.S. military satellite. DigitalGlobe is a U.S. company.

Yes, but quoting the SMH article:

I surmise you meant to quote Post 41, as I never said that..

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: anstar
Posted 2014-03-20 13:51:34 and read 48298 times.

Quoting huxrules (Reply 28):

Well I can see either a bomb or super rapid fire causing the comms issue (one in a million comms issue). Pilots programmed a turn back and the plane did as was required.

If it were a bomb or fire, I doubt the aircraft would have flown for 7 hours + to reach the Indian Ocean search area.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: huxrules
Posted 2014-03-20 13:52:58 and read 48210 times.

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 33):
Do you recognize the airport on the screen of the pilots simulator shown in this photo? It looks like Polonia International or maybe Phuket doesn't it?

I think it is AMS.

Quoting David L (Reply 31):
Where have you been for the last week and a half?

I should clarify- They need to look UNDERWATER for clues at the IGARI intersection. Something heavy could have fallen off (or been blown off) that sunk.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: studedave
Posted 2014-03-20 13:53:30 and read 48194 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 47):
1 USAF P-8.

Make that USN P-8. The USAF wouldn't dare...



StudeDave

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: pliersinsight
Posted 2014-03-20 13:53:56 and read 48194 times.

Quoting JoeinTX (Reply 40):
@34

Good info. Good to know there'll be something recorded to examine if it's discovered.

Unless the breakers were pulled for the FDR and CVR.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 747megatop
Posted 2014-03-20 13:55:16 and read 48045 times.

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 39):
Please excuse my ignorance, but I was listening that due to the very far location of the debris off the Australian coast, the time for actual searching for the Orions will be no more than 2 hours.... Doesn't the RAAF have some useful aircraft ( not necessarily Orions ) capable to refuel in flight and stay searching for more time ? Or are they sending a string of Orions to make a serial search covering all the daylight time?

An aircraft carrier could have helped speed up the search? Wishful thinking that one of the countries could lend one for this search.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: davidzill
Posted 2014-03-20 13:57:33 and read 47838 times.

I think we will find nothing, debris were floating in an area of volatile seas and strong currents, known for rogue waves, etc. I think we have passed our moment of opportunity to find the wreckage and it is committed to the depths which may be deep enough to not even be accessible by submersibles. Thank the Malaysians for finally giving us access to their evidence a little too late. It's sucks for whoever was floating the first 5 days but succumbed to dehydration

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Gonzalo
Posted 2014-03-20 13:58:44 and read 47639 times.

Thank you Kaiarahi and namezero111111, that makes more sense. Let's hope the ships and aircraft working together can confirm or discard soon if what the satellites were looking at is related or not to MH370.... Without a doubt, no matter what, this will be one of the most notorious incidents in aviation history....

Rgds.
G.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: canoecarrier
Posted 2014-03-20 13:58:57 and read 47652 times.

Quoting redflyer (Reply 36):
What the Aussies are seeing is a high resolution and close-up photo of the object that lets them determine with a fair amount of certainty that it's from the 777, and the photo they are sharing with the rest of the world is a dumb'd down version of it which doesn't allow the rest of us commoners to make sense of it.

I wouldn't assume the photo we have been shown is the only one they have of the object(s) either. I'm more familiar with aerial photos taken from aircraft, but typically several frames are captured of any specific point on earth they are surveying. They later use that to create a stereoscopic (3D) view of the object.

IIRC, they mentioned in some briefing that the object seemed to be just below the surface of the water and it broaches with the wave motion. That's not something I think you could infer with just one photo or at least a photo of this quality. I think they have more.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-20 13:59:08 and read 47840 times.

Quoting studedave (Reply 52):

Duhh    - of course. I typed a string of xxAFs without thinking. As a former C-130 driver who has hung out with P-3 drivers ....

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-20 13:59:26 and read 47612 times.

Quoting namezero111111 (Reply 48):
I surmise you meant to quote Post 41, as I never said that..

Actually it is now Post 40, the number keeps changing faster than I can update the reply.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-20 14:00:42 and read 47396 times.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 53):
An aircraft carrier could have helped speed up the search?

How?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-20 14:00:59 and read 47354 times.

Quoting huxrules (Reply 51):
They need to look UNDERWATER for clues at the IGARI intersection. Something heavy could have fallen off (or been blown off) that sunk.

Ah, right.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: DTW2HYD
Posted 2014-03-20 14:03:22 and read 47478 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 38):
I don't believe that there exists both military and commercial versions of these images.

DigitalGlobe has couple of satellites with less than 50 cm max resolution, but they can only sell those images with less than 50 cm to US Military. Low res images can be sold to others. On top NRO may have other hi-res images from the region.

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 38):
Please excuse my ignorance, but I was listening that due to the very far location of the debris off the Australian coast, the time for actual searching for the Orions will be no more than 2 hours.... Doesn't the RAAF have some useful aircraft ( not necessarily Orions ) capable to refuel in flight and stay searching for more time ? Or are they sending a string of Orions to make a serial search covering all the daylight time?

They will rotate aircraft to cover day time. Anything with couple of helicopters works better and almost any navy, coast guards or even private vessels have those. Repositioning Aircraft carrier is unnecessary because fighter jets won't help much in searching sea surface.

If I heard correctly UK is moving HMS Ocean to the scene which is a Helicopter Carrier. Perfect fit.

[Edited 2014-03-20 14:14:28]

[Edited 2014-03-20 14:16:55]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: canoecarrier
Posted 2014-03-20 14:06:50 and read 46774 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 61):
DigitalGlobe has couple of satellites with less than 50 cm max resolution

IIRC that's in the neighborhood of what the better GoogleEarth images are like.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: MSY-MSP
Posted 2014-03-20 14:15:26 and read 46343 times.

Not to add fuel to the fire or anything else, but there are some interesting things that I am hearing from a variety of different sources.

First of all, the likelihood that the FDR and the CVR were disabled is very low. Apparently the breakers for those two are located in the EE bay, which is where the breaker for the Satcom link is located as well. Since the Satcom was still active it is unlikely that anyone went into the EE bay to disconnect the CVR/FDR.

We will likely never get anything of real value off the CVR when it is found as the data will have been overwritten several times from when contact was lost. Though if we hear nothing on the CVR then that would lead to the conclusion of a suicide or no live activity in the cockpit in the 2 hours prior to the end of the flight. The FDR working for 25 hours will give us a lot of the information about the actual flight, but won't necessarily tell us what happened.

As to where the plane is this is where I am hearing clearly a couple lines of thinking.

1. If the aircraft actually went to the south Indian Ocean, then this is clearly not a hypoxia issue, but a suicide mission. The last known track of the aircraft was in a NW direction. So someone would have had to turn the aircraft south.

2. If the aircraft continued on the NW track towards Pakistan there is a scenario that allows it to be on the ground.

a. Aircraft flies towards Pakistan in a direction from China.
b. Pakistan sends up aircraft to intercept
c. Pilot/hijacker breaks radio silence and communicates with Pakistani Military Aircraft -- states intention of going to remote field in Taliban areas
d. Pakistan realizes that this is the missing plane, but doesn't want to shoot it down as it isn't a threat to them directly and the negative press that would come from that. Allows the plane into airspace and follows it to the airfield
e. US and others know this, but realize that best course of action is to pretend that they don't know publically in hopes of a solution.
f. US keeps saying search south others go along with this because it buys them time as they figure out what to do with the plane in Pakistan. They figure that they can explain the false leads later.
h. If the plane made Pakistan then it is highly unlikely that it will leave there untraced.
I. The passengers are being held there as human shields. Possibly to give them leverage in being able to fly somewhere else.

I have had a number of unrelated persons both inside the US government and outside indicate to me that the plane is on the ground in a hostile area in the past few days. Conversely I have had some others indicate that the plane crashed right where we are looking.

Problem with the above scenario if true is why are you actually looking for something in that region that you know isn't there and moving the assets into that area. You could just simply use the press to make it seem as though you are looking when in fact you aren't looking at all. The other think I have an issue with is the satellite images. The images look very similar to me of the ones the Chinese released a week ago, and the sizes are very similar as well. 24 metres is not small and either would have to be a very sizeable chunk of a wing from outboard of the engine pylons or from the fuselage. And neither of those two parts makes sense to me as being what is seen.

This leads me back to the radar data that the Malaysian said they got from some government. It could have only come from about three governments that don't want their capabilities known. China, US or Russia. My guess is that the data came from the US, and either came from Diego Garcia or from Afghanistan. Depending on which station it came from will tell us where the plane is.

So the search in the south is either a) based on data from the US in Diego Garcia and the plane actually went that direction for a suicide, or b) a very well orchestrated and coordinated effort to make the guys in Pakistan think we don't know where they are.

I am not saying we are chasing ghosts, but something somewhere just isn't adding up to me.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-20 14:18:54 and read 45629 times.

Quoting davidzill (Reply 54):
Thank the Malaysians for finally giving us access to their evidence a little too late

We're not conducting the search. Also, I think you'll find this is new information, not something the Malaysians have been sitting on.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 747megatop
Posted 2014-03-20 14:22:16 and read 45128 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 59):
How?

More aircraft searching more area in the Ocean in that region and staying aloft for more time before heading back to the carrier for refueling. The 4 hour trip from Perth and the 4 hour trip back could be saved.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-20 14:23:38 and read 45155 times.

I think images are credible and the delay to release them is to degrade them by not showing to the public how accurate these satellites be and protect heir security, this is why they took seriously this lead more than others

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: rj777
Posted 2014-03-20 14:30:06 and read 44306 times.

I just hope they find the wreckage before we end up with Part 100! But seriously, I bet if anybody can find the plane, the Aussies can! Hopefully we will know soon!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Azure
Posted 2014-03-20 14:32:43 and read 44175 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 64):
this is new information, not something the Malaysians have been sitting on.

Actually the Malaysians did sit on it for 4 days, according to the WSJ.
I can't link the article, just google : " Critical Data Was Delayed in Search for Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight "

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-20 14:37:02 and read 43854 times.

Quoting Azure (Reply 69):
Actually the Malaysians did sit on it for 4 days, according to the WSJ.
I can't link the article, just google : " Critical Data Was Delayed in Search for Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight "

from what I heard on CNN, the reason for delay is these pictures had to be downloaded to a ground station in colorado the sen to Australia and they had to be examined pixel by pixel, that's why has taken this long

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-20 14:39:04 and read 43394 times.

Quoting Azure (Reply 69):
Actually the Malaysians did sit on it for 4 days, according to the WSJ.

That's about the Inmarsat data, not about these satellite photos.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: SimonDanger
Posted 2014-03-20 14:42:19 and read 42998 times.

IIRC, the FDR keeps up to 25 hours of data, while the CVR only saves 2 hours...why? Why is voice not able to be compressed down small enough that it too can be saved for the same period of time? Admittedly the FDR/CVR have not been found, so it's academic at this point, but should we find them someday it seems like that is going to present a large gap in our understanding of what happened in those initial hours. What are the technical challenges to this, and do you all think this data-gap might be one possible change to aviation as a result of this tragedy? Beyond that, at what point will video start to be recorded as well?

(Thank you to rcair and all the mods for their exhausting work. I can't imagine the hours you guys are putting in).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: redflyer
Posted 2014-03-20 14:50:57 and read 42163 times.

Quoting SimonDanger (Reply 73):
IIRC, the FDR keeps up to 25 hours of data, while the CVR only saves 2 hours...why? Why is voice not able to be compressed down small enough that it too can be saved for the same period of time? Admittedly the FDR/CVR have not been found, so it's academic at this point, but should we find them someday it seems like that is going to present a large gap in our understanding of what happened in those initial hours. What are the technical challenges to this, and do you all think this data-gap might be one possible change to aviation as a result of this tragedy? Beyond that, at what point will video start to be recorded as well?

On the CVR, I couldn't agree more. I'm surprised in this day and age of relatively cheap memory that only two hours of audio is recorded (yes, I realize it's over multiple channels, but still...).

On the video, I'm not sure a video recorder could provide a lot more information that can't already be gleaned from a FDR and CVR. I mean, after all, do you really need to see a pilot push a particular button when the FDR will already tell you precisely when it was pushed? Sure, it will give you a visual of what's happening in the cockpit, but 99% of what's happening can be deduced just from the FDR and CVR in my humble opinion.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-20 14:56:30 and read 41695 times.

Images collected by DigitalGlobe: maybe GeoEye-1

Looking at a copy of the raw AMSA provided panchromatic picture, I found the pixel size to be close to 0.4m. That would be totally consistent with the best commercially available resolution like that provided by GeoEye-1 namely 0.41m panchromatic. If GeoEye-1 is used, then the multispectral on the right taken simultaneously should have a 1.65m resolution, 4 times lower, so it had to be blown up to be at the same scale as the panchromatic image and that's why it is blurry.

According to DigitalGlobe, GeoEye-1 can collect 700,000 sq. km per day. Revisit time will depend on the look angle e.g. about 8 days if you want to fly almost on top of the target, only 2 days if you are willing to look at it at a slant (35deg).

The other candiadte besides GeoEye-1 would be WorldView-2 that has very similar performance.

I now just found an AWST article where DigitalGlobe talks about the collection process (one of their five satellites took the pictures!).

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....l/awx_03_20_2014_p0-674325.xml&p=2

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: antskip
Posted 2014-03-20 14:59:24 and read 41438 times.

Quoting davidzill (Reply 54):
I think we will find nothing, debris were floating in an area of volatile seas and strong currents, known for rogue waves, etc

I am nowhere near so pessimistic. What is possibly the wreckage field of the was in clear view on March 16th, when the initial low definition satellite images were created. The weather was too bad yesterday, but authorities say the satellites are being reconfigured to give much higher resolution images. The planes will be there every day now waiting for a clear view. Maybe today? If this is the wreckage, it has been floating around for quite a few days. Who knows how much longer they will continue to float around? We just need long enough for identification, and then pick-up. The first should be achieved on the first clear day. The second when HMAS Success arrives. Unless the debris is a dead end, or it sinks, we will all be in a very good position any time. I have a lot of faith in the skills of the Australian and New Zealand equipment and personnel to do the job. As for black boxes and seafloor debris, now that is quite another matter again!

[Edited 2014-03-20 15:04:21]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Stevemchey
Posted 2014-03-20 15:06:29 and read 40492 times.

What's the average depth of the Indian Ocean in the area that is being searched right now?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: gatorman96
Posted 2014-03-20 15:06:40 and read 40506 times.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 65):
More aircraft searching more area in the Ocean in that region and staying aloft for more time before heading back to the carrier for refueling. The 4 hour trip from Perth and the 4 hour trip back could be saved.

Although it takes a while for these aircraft to make it to the search site, they are heavily equipped with SAR equipment and they can loiter significantly longer than any carrier based aircraft.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: twincessna340a
Posted 2014-03-20 15:08:30 and read 40383 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 72):
That's about the Inmarsat data, not about these satellite photos.

The date of the "new" satellite data is 8/16/14

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/images/DIGO_00718_01_14.jpg

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: gatorman96
Posted 2014-03-20 15:09:15 and read 40319 times.

Quoting Stevemchey (Reply 77):
What's the average depth of the Indian Ocean in the area that is being searched right now?

I believe others have posted it's in the 2500m range, but quickly falls off to 4000m. On the bright side, the sea floor is relatively flat which should help in the search. AF447, on the other hand, was lost in very deep water and a mountainous sea floor. This made the search for the black boxes/wreckage extremely difficult.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: zeke
Posted 2014-03-20 15:10:30 and read 40145 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 40):
P-3s (depending on the model) have about 16 hours endurance. Flight time to the search area from YPEA is approximately 4 hours, depending on winds, so they should have 6+ hours on station.

No, the high loiter times of 16-17+ hours are only applicable when there is no transit and a couple of engines are shut down early. Expect around 2 hours on station.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 46):
2 RAAF P-3s, 1 RNZAF P-3, 1 USAF P-8. An RAAF C-13

Yesterday it was two RAAF AP-3Cs, 1xRNZAF P-3K, 1xUSN P-8 (incorrectly listed in the ASMA statement as a P-3), and a RAAF C-130J.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: gatorman96
Posted 2014-03-20 15:10:34 and read 40040 times.

Quoting twincessna340a (Reply 79):

The date of the "new" satellite data is 8/16/14

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/images/DIGO_00718_01_14.jpg

I think you meant 4/16/2014, which would've been Sunday.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: fooflyboy
Posted 2014-03-20 15:11:16 and read 40035 times.

Quoting SimonDanger (Reply 73):
IIRC, the FDR keeps up to 25 hours of data, while the CVR only saves 2 hours...why?

I think because historically that was all that was relevant to any investigation. That thinking may change to cover the possibility of a rogue pilot and/or a scenario such as this one.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-20 15:12:09 and read 39884 times.

Did Australia have these specific images of the two objects four days ago or just a radar map they needed to go over?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: SimonDanger
Posted 2014-03-20 15:13:07 and read 39828 times.

Quoting redflyer (Reply 74):
On the video, I'm not sure a video recorder could provide a lot more information that can't already be gleaned from a FDR and CVR. I mean, after all, do you really need to see a pilot push a particular button when the FDR will already tell you precisely when it was pushed? Sure, it will give you a visual of what's happening in the cockpit, but 99% of what's happening can be deduced just from the FDR and CVR in my humble opinion.

My bad, I should have been more specific: external video, say a forward-mounted cam on the vertical stabilizer and another on the belly of the nose looking aft to give visual structural info not sufficiently captured in the CVR/FDR.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: boeingforever
Posted 2014-03-20 15:13:35 and read 39828 times.

wouldn't the plane sink to the bottom? why would it be on the surface.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nm2582
Posted 2014-03-20 15:13:50 and read 39819 times.

Quoting redflyer (Reply 74):
On the CVR, I couldn't agree more. I'm surprised in this day and age of relatively cheap memory that only two hours of audio is recorded (yes, I realize it's over multiple channels, but still...).

The development cycles for technology like flash memory (which is what I assume the CVR uses) are many times faster than the development cycle for a large commerical airliner.

The 777's first flight was in 1994. In 1994, the world had never heard of an MP3 player. It would be 6 years before the first "thumb drive" was sold (with a capacity of only 8MB - barely enough for two songs by todays measurements, or perhaps an hour of low quality speech); and to really put it in perspective - 1994 is 7 years (!!) before the very first iPod is sold.

Certifying new technology for use in a CVR or FDR is expensive, and it's not very often that you need more than two hours...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: jpetekyxmd80
Posted 2014-03-20 15:13:54 and read 39883 times.

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 82):

Quoting twincessna340a (Reply 79):

The date of the "new" satellite data is 8/16/14

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/images/DIGO_00718_01_14.jpg

I think you meant 4/16/2014, which would've been Sunday.

I think no one knows what month it is!!  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: aw70
Posted 2014-03-20 15:14:02 and read 39723 times.

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 63):
or b) a very well orchestrated and coordinated effort to make the guys in Pakistan think we don't know where they are.

As much as I would prefer this to be the case (due to the people on board potentially still being alive in this scenario), it does have one considerable anomaly.

What would the motives of the perpetrators of the whole effort be, in such a case? They fly a 777 to Pakistan, and then...?

Then they end up in a remote location, with 230+ hostages they don't tell anybody about? And a slightly used airplane with empty tanks?

What's the point of doing that? And what would the benefit be of keeping this whole situation secret? In particular, why would the perpetrators insist on secrecy? Doing that would not fit any behaviour patterns previously seen at such events. The value of hostages is precisely that everyone knows you are threatening them. That is the very mechanism by which you put pressure on those you wish to influence by the hijacking.

Hostage-takers, with a large bunch of hostages, somewhere in a remote location, and no one talks about them... or with them... that would be very, very strange.

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 63):
I am not saying we are chasing ghosts, but something somewhere just isn't adding up to me.

That indeed. I have had the same sort of feeling all along with this affair.

[Edited 2014-03-20 15:20:20]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: gatorman96
Posted 2014-03-20 15:14:41 and read 39664 times.

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 84):
Did Australia have these specific images of the two objects four days ago or just a radar map they needed to go over?

Not sure what the turn around time from collection of image to finished product, but you also have to consider the time it took for the analyst to actually spot this object. It may take a few days.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: akberc
Posted 2014-03-20 15:15:54 and read 39763 times.

Quoting turjo101 (Reply 42):
So if this plane did get to Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan area, more than one government would have had to be complicit.

Thank you for some common sense re: Pakistan, India and Iran. Nation states, and especially those with mature civil aviation (private airlines, authorities, aeronautical schools, airports, passengers) do not hijack civilian airliners -- although they may sometimes shootdown civilian airliners by mistake.

Secondly, without stealth aircraft, it is not possible to infiltrate the India-Pakistan border, and the whole of the Indian Ocean/Persian Gulf coastline. While other sides of these three countries may be less protected, these two lines form an impenetrable semi-circle for an unidentified non-stealth aircraft.

Lastly, while the Taliban dominate certain mountainous tribal areas in Pakistan on the ground, they do not 'control' (as in sovereignty) any part of Pakistan, much less its airspace, and certainly not any airports. They are knocked out by helicopters regularly. Rocket launchers and IEDs are their most formidable weapon.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-20 15:17:38 and read 39490 times.

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 82):
I think you meant 4/16/2014, which would've been Sunday.

Which, as I understand it, is the date it was taken, not the date when the objects were noticed.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-20 15:18:43 and read 39457 times.

Big storm coming in this weekend, hopefully we have some major developments today. Watching CNN, it looks like the search will continue any min.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: twincessna340a
Posted 2014-03-20 15:18:51 and read 39477 times.

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 88):

March is the 3rd month, oops....   

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 80):
Quoting Stevemchey (Reply 77):

I found a good map: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Diamantinatopography.svg
New debris located roughly 40 S 90 E

Another map: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Seir.png

[Edited 2014-03-20 15:31:09]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: gatorman96
Posted 2014-03-20 15:19:01 and read 39349 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 93):
Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 82):
I think you meant 4/16/2014, which would've been Sunday.

Which, as I understand it, is the date it was taken, not the date when the objects were noticed.

Agreed. Then we have to consider image processing time and the time it took for an analyst(s) to spot the object.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-20 15:20:28 and read 39136 times.

Thanks for the clarification David L and gatorman.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 65mustang
Posted 2014-03-20 15:21:02 and read 39192 times.

DigitalGlobe is a US company so technically the images were taken by a US satellite.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: spacecadet
Posted 2014-03-20 15:23:35 and read 39186 times.

Quoting pliersinsight (Reply 52):
Unless the breakers were pulled for the FDR and CVR.

Which would pretty much sew up the cause of the crash, wouldn't it?

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 63):
We will likely never get anything of real value off the CVR when it is found as the data will have been overwritten several times from when contact was lost. Though if we hear nothing on the CVR then that would lead to the conclusion of a suicide or no live activity in the cockpit in the 2 hours prior to the end of the flight. The FDR working for 25 hours will give us a lot of the information about the actual flight, but won't necessarily tell us what happened.

I will say it again more clearly: if the CVR and FDR are found, and the media are in readable condition, we will know what happened to this plane.

I can't remember an accident in the entire history of aviation in which both the CVR and FDR were available and the accident cause could still not be determined. There will be more information on these devices than the investigators will initially know what to do with. That's often the problem on these longer incidents; finding the root of what happened is often like looking for a needle in a haystack of data in itself. But the needle will be there.

You do not need to hear what happened 20 minutes into this flight to determine the cause.

Quoting SimonDanger (Reply 73):
IIRC, the FDR keeps up to 25 hours of data, while the CVR only saves 2 hours...why?

Because, as has been pointed out numerous times, planes aren't built to be pilot-proof. The FDR is 25 hours long because it can be useful to have data from previous flights to see if mechanical problems were present before an accident. But what would you really gain by hearing 25 hours of pilot-speak?

Even in *this* incident, what would you gain? I've already gone through in another reply what the investigators will learn once they recover the CVR here, and it is exactly the same as what they'd learn if they had 8 hours of recordings.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: aw70
Posted 2014-03-20 15:25:05 and read 38873 times.

Quoting akberc (Reply 91):
Secondly, without stealth aircraft, it is not possible to infiltrate the India-Pakistan border, and the whole of the Indian Ocean/Persian Gulf coastline. While other sides of these three countries may be less protected, these two lines form an impenetrable semi-circle for an unidentified non-stealth aircraft.

We have gone over this in detail in previous threads. It would be possible if you shadow some legit commercial flight. Keep close to another airliner that goes where you want to, and no one is the wiser. ATC radar has no capability to keep such returns apart, if the second aircraft has its transponder deactivated. And military radar, while potentially capable of spotting something like that (or at least classifying two heavies extremely close to each other as an odd radar return), has to be looking for it. Which they would not have been, at least not then. It took many hours before anyone seriously considered the possibility that MH370 might have gone on flying at all.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: akberc
Posted 2014-03-20 15:27:42 and read 38953 times.

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 63):
The FDR working for 25 hours will give us a lot of the information about the actual flight, but won't necessarily tell us what happened.

The FDR may not tell us the details, but it will tell us whether it was foul play or a 6-hour zombie flight from a certain point. That should be enough to allocate the liability -- Malaysian Airlines or Boeing -- and that is always the end game in recent investigations.

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 63):
Aircraft flies towards Pakistan in a direction from China.

Yes, up via Andamans, through Myanmar, via China and over the Karakoram range is a viable route which may not be detectable.

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 63):
US and others know this, but realize that best course of action is to pretend that they don't know publically in hopes of a solution.

Not possible. The Pakistan military and the US co-operate at many levels -- military, intelligence, general staff education at US military colleges, counter-terrorism etc.. Occasional frosty relations bring the co-operation down a bit, but blatant lies are uncommon. These ties are from the time Pakistan beat the Soviet Union in Afghanistan on behalf of the US.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 15:29:47 and read 38769 times.

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 87):
The development cycles for technology like flash memory (which is what I assume the CVR uses) are many times faster than the development cycle for a large commerical airliner.

The 777's first flight was in 1994. In 1994, the world had never heard of an MP3 player. It would be 6 years before the first "thumb drive" was sold (with a capacity of only 8MB - barely enough for two songs by todays measurements, or perhaps an hour of low quality speech); and to really put it in perspective - 1994 is 7 years (!!) before the very first iPod is sold.

Certifying new technology for use in a CVR or FDR is expensive, and it's not very often that you need more than two hours...

9M-MRO was built in 2002 and would not have used the same technology as in 1994 for the recorders.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: fooflyboy
Posted 2014-03-20 15:33:02 and read 38362 times.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 99):
I've already gone through in another reply what the investigators will learn once they recover the CVR here, and it is exactly the same as what they'd learn if they had 8 hours of recordings.

If this case, you might learn WHO the hijacker was. But you're right.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: SimonDanger
Posted 2014-03-20 15:36:36 and read 38055 times.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 99):
Because, as has been pointed out numerous times, planes aren't built to be pilot-proof. The FDR is 25 hours long because it can be useful to have data from previous flights to see if mechanical problems were present before an accident. But what would you really gain by hearing 25 hours of pilot-speak? Even in *this* incident, what would you gain? I've already gone through in another reply what the investigators will learn once they recover the CVR here, and it is exactly the same as what they'd learn if they had 8 hours of recordings.

Jeez, I was just curious. :-/

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: JAAlbert
Posted 2014-03-20 15:37:41 and read 37994 times.

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 88):
I think no one knows what month it is!!

Hah! Not being employed in an aviation profession, I was thinking perhaps the date was some sort of aviation code that lay persons such as myself just didn't understand!

Quoting aw70 (Reply 89):
Then they end up in a remote location, with 230+ hostages they don't tell anybody about? And a slightly used airplane with empty tanks?

And if the Pakistani authorities discovered the plane on their soil, I can't imagine them turning a blind eye. From past events reported in the news, it seems that the Pakistani government does have fairly good intelligence as to what is going on with the various militias that operate within its borders - enough so that they'd know pretty quickly if this plane landed inside Pakistan. I don't see any national interest served by Pakistan withholding such information.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Mouldypete
Posted 2014-03-20 15:39:31 and read 37868 times.

On the balance of probabilities, we can assume the plane flew until the fuel was exhausted and surely nobody would hi-jack a flight with barely just enough fuel to reach their target destination (yes I know about ET961 but they were drunk and mentally fragile).
As for pilot suicide, why fly for 8 hours before taking the plunge as you risk being stopped by crew and/or passenger action or even losing your nerve?
I think we can reasonably reject both hi-jacking and suicide. The hallmarks are just not there for me.

After a perfectly standard and correct initial climb to cruising altitude, followed by normal communication procedures it seems that sometime after 1:21am the flight crew stopped all controlled communications and at the same the a/c made some odd manoeuvres which we do not understand fully.

The a/c turned back across the peninsula as if to return to a suitable emergency runway such as Langkawi?, then oddly turned NNE for 59nm before completing another turn to the NW to the last known published radar contact at 2:15am and it may have made other turns after this.
Then it seems possible that the plane flew in a straight path until its demise as far as we know. Of course additional Inmarsat calculations from earlier hourly ‘pings’ would be a huge help on this one.

The indications to me are clear that the odd manoeuvres were to attempt to overcome a problem. The subsequent lack of communication and the lengthy flight with no known further manoeuvres or communication suggest to me that the problem had overcome the personnel on board. The plane flying under auto-pilot until such time as the fuel was exhausted (the “Helios” scenario).

I have no aviation expertise but it must be possible to find a logical sequence of events to fit the known a/c movements during the period of at least 45 minutes from say 1:30 to 2:15am. Event or events that initially took all of the efforts of the flight crew to fight before something incapacitated them and all of the people onboard, be it hypoxia from depressurisation, smoke inhalation or toxic fumes or some combination.
Something which effectively they had succeeded to control to the point of saving the integrity of the a/c systems but which ultimately defeated them.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: NotAPilotYet
Posted 2014-03-20 15:39:36 and read 37792 times.

Curious about the DCVRs (and google isn't a lot of help here - can't distinguish between DCVRs and DVRs until page 30 even with aviation terms). We know that the recording time for multiple channels is about 2 hours. What is the hard drive capacity necessary for those 2 hours? I would think that you don't necessarily want the audio to be compressed, as it introduces artifacts and drops data. If you wanted to record, say, 10 hours of the flight deck, what would be the hd space necessary? Back of the napkin math tells me that the DCVRs would be the size of a Volkswagen, but I thought I'd ask the experts.

BTW - I'm new here - another noob who was drawn here by this horrible event looking for experts beyond the news. I have read every post in all 40 threads (recovering from surgery, so I had time). You folks are amazing - between you and googling your terms, I have learned more about aviation, geography, oceanography, satellite imaging, flight crew SOPs, degrading hypoxia, waypoints and annoying people on Twitter. The bucks I spent on the ability to post is worth the education - thank you.

(and now I will look like an idiot because my question was answered while I was composing this post...)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: akberc
Posted 2014-03-20 15:42:24 and read 37443 times.

Quoting aw70 (Reply 100):
And military radar, while potentially capable of spotting something like that (or at least classifying two heavies extremely close to each other as an odd radar return), has to be looking for it. Which they would not have been, at least not then.

Yes, sorry, forgot the shadowing theory that was discussed before. That may be possible.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 15:45:36 and read 37324 times.

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 108):
If you wanted to record, say, 10 hours of the flight deck, what would be the hd space necessary? Back of the napkin math tells me that the DCVRs would be the size of a Volkswagen, but I thought I'd ask the experts.

I did this calculation earlier in the thread.

If you wanted to record 48kHz @ 24 bits per sample (way better than CD quality, way greater range than human hearing - just in case), it would be 1152000 bits per second or 140.625kB/second/channel. Recording 4 channels of this for 50 hours would be about 100GB. This is completely uncompressed - real-time lossless compression can cut this in half.

There is no technical reason it isn't done. My belief is that it is not done a) because regulations don't require it b) for privacy reasons - it would record more than the accident flight.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: lucaspithan
Posted 2014-03-20 15:53:19 and read 36639 times.

Take a look at this crash that happened in Brazil in 1989. Could it happen in the case of MH370? Or something like that?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Varig_Flight_254

"Prior to take off from Marabá, Pará, towards the final destination, the crew entered an incorrect heading into the flight computer. Instead of flying towards its destination, the plane flew due west and after some time was over a remote area of the Amazon jungle.[3][4] Attempts to reach an alternative airport were unsuccessful, and the plane eventually ran out of fuel. The pilot made a belly landing in the jungle,[5] 1,050 miles (1,690 km) northwest of Rio de Janeiro.[6] The survivors were rescued two days later.[5] Thirteen passengers died, and many more sustained serious injuries.[7]"

Are there any possibilities of the crew had to change the destination inflight?

[Edited 2014-03-20 15:57:34]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: ikramerica
Posted 2014-03-20 15:54:41 and read 36382 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 110):

The amount of memory in a 16GB iPod would be sufficient for 25 hours at lossless quality. Granted you'd want military grade robust memory that could survive a salt water bath, built in backup and error correction, easily removable and swappable, but the cost of this as a maintenance item would be far less than other routine maintenance items.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 747megatop
Posted 2014-03-20 15:57:34 and read 36134 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 110):
b) for privacy reasons - it would record more than the accident flight.

What privacy reasons? The flight crews are there on official business doing a job. It is not like someone's home is being intrusively recorded. Almost all work places in US make it very clear that the employees work on company time for company purposes and all equipment is to be used for company business purposes and. Some companies in fact explicitly make it clear that all communications are subject to monitoring as necessary.
What needs to be made clear is how the CVR recordings will be used (for example, investigation during an accident or safety violation).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-20 15:59:34 and read 35924 times.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 65):
More aircraft searching more area in the Ocean in that region and staying aloft for more time before heading back to the carrier for refueling.

Except that almost all the aircraft on a carrier are unsuited for searching. A typical USN carrier has 4 FA-18 squadrons (fighters, unsuited because they can't fly slowly enough), 1 EA-6B squadron (unsuited, it's designed for air defence suppression), 1 E-2 squadron (unsuited, it's designed for battle management / command and control), 1 S-3B squadron (primarily designed for electronic countermeasures, with some limited search capacity), and 1 SH-60F/H squadron (designed for anti-submarine warfare). The SH60F/H (which are being replaced by MH60S/Rs) have SAR capacity, but their range/endurance is quite limited - their primary SAR role is to pick up crew from an aircraft that has ditched close to the carrier.
In short, not much that's useful on a carrier.

Quoting zeke (Reply 81):
No, the high loiter times of 16-17+ hours are only applicable when there is no transit and a couple of engines are shut down early. Expect around 2 hours on station.

Thanks. It's been a while (40 years) since I've been around P-3s. You're right, the 16 hour endurance is based on loiter time endurance (a RNZAF P-3 holds the record at 21.5 hours). I was figuring about 4+4 hours transit time (1350 nm at 328 kn cruise), plus whatever is left at loiter. I'm not sure if they'd go to full loiter (2 engines) that far out - our guys (RNZAF) procedure was to shut down #1 (no generator) first, which also improved visibility from the port observer station by eliminating the exhaust. I've forgotten what the requirements were for going to 2 engine loiter.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: cbrboy
Posted 2014-03-20 15:59:58 and read 35963 times.

For those who want to understand the southern search operations - keep an eye on the AMSA website media page. Information gleaned from breakfast television in eastern Australia this morning suggests that the four aircraft to be deployed today will be 2x RAAF P-3s, 1x USN P-8 and 1x RNZAF P-3. AMSA indicated in a television interview that these aircraft would be launched progressively during the day to try to maximise the coverage in the search zone during daylight. (I'm not convinced that's a logical search strategy, but that's another matter.) The first RAAF P-3 was due to depart RAAF Pearce (YPEA) in the last hour - it is currently about 0700 in Western Australia.

Conditions in the search zone were tough yesterday - cloudy with rain. Given five days of drifting, if there were any floating objects to start with it will be very hard to locate them now. Be prepared for many days of searching, and the possibility nothing will be found.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: bond007
Posted 2014-03-20 16:01:05 and read 35675 times.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 99):
You do not need to hear what happened 20 minutes into this flight to determine the cause.

In this scenario, unlike any other incident, the earlier missing part of the CVR might well be the most important, and the last few hours useless.

You, and the rest of us, simply have no clue what they may or may not determine from the CVR and FDR.

Jimbo

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-20 16:02:11 and read 35597 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 110):
There is no technical reason it isn't done

Forget just audio, almost every car in Russia seemingly has a dashcam recording sometimes two channels of HQ video. There should be video in the cockpit, uploaded by satellite data link in bursts to the cloud. Bus and train drivers: video. Banks: video. Air traffic controllers: constant monitoring. Casino dealers: video. Cockpits? overdue. it would make accident investigations much cheaper and more effective. Did he nudge that lever or was it deliberate? only video answers those questions.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Mortyman
Posted 2014-03-20 16:02:13 and read 35629 times.

Quoting Stevemchey (Reply 77):
What's the average depth of the Indian Ocean in the area that is being searched right now?

Up to 4000 meters ...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: zeke
Posted 2014-03-20 16:02:37 and read 35694 times.

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 84):
Did Australia have these specific images of the two objects four days ago or just a radar map they needed to go over?

The images were taken around midday on the 16th local time, what has not been said is when the images were supplied to Australia. The images contain data that is also not visible to the human eye, however can be processed via software.

What the DIGO has and what AMSA has is not the same.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 110):
There is no technical reason it isn't done. My belief is that it is not done a) because regulations don't require it b) for privacy reasons - it would record more than the accident flight.

The DCVRs I am familiar with are required to record 6 channels, 2 x 2hr channels, and 4 x 30 min channels.

If these boxes at in the southern ocean, their recovery at those depths will be difficult, and may only provide air noise.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 16:04:01 and read 35619 times.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 113):
What privacy reasons? The flight crews are there on official business doing a job. It is not like someone's home is being intrusively recorded. Almost all work places in US make it very clear that the employees work on company time for company purposes and all equipment is to be used for company business purposes and. Some companies in fact explicitly make it clear that all communications are subject to monitoring as necessary.
What needs to be made clear is how the CVR recordings will be used (for example, investigation during an accident or safety violation).

Right, but for example let's say you have a conversation with your F/O about you cheating on your wife. The flight after you encounters an event that has the CVR read, and now your conversation is part of an investigation. I don't pretend to know the details, I'm only hypothesizing, but I imagine the unions would have a problem with that.

All I am saying is that there is no technical reason not to record more. With how much flash memory technology has advanced in recent years, they could record 8 channels for 200 hours or more in the same-sized package. Without the regulatory pressure, there is no financial incentive to develop these systems and certify them for crash-readiness, etc. That could be another big reason.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 16:07:47 and read 35228 times.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 117):
Forget just audio, almost every car in Russia seemingly has a dashcam recording sometimes two channels of HQ video. There should be video in the cockpit, uploaded by satellite data link in bursts to the cloud. Bus and train drivers: video. Banks: video. Air traffic controllers: constant monitoring. Casino dealers: video. Cockpits? overdue. it would make accident investigations much cheaper and more effective. Did he nudge that lever or was it deliberate? only video answers those questions.

The Russian dashcams can't withstand 300gs and 30 minutes of a jet fuel fire (or whatever the regulatory requirements are).

We have discussed ad-nauseam why satellite downlink of CVR/FDR is not feasible. The Coles Notes are: 1) Not enough space-based bandwidth, orbiting such a constellation would bankrupt all major airlines if you split the cost among them 2) Not enough bandwidth period - as in spectrum space 3) How would you enforce compliance? ICAO can't make mandates, everyone has to agree.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: NotAPilotYet
Posted 2014-03-20 16:12:46 and read 34648 times.

nupogod - thank you. I don't know how I missed it in the billions (Sagan voice) of posts I've read - I apologize for making you repeat. Thank you for being patient with the new girl. I've readjusted my Volkswagen to a large cat.

I understand why flight crew might push back on this - I wouldn't want my every utterance being recorded on the company servers. Heck - I teach at a university and I don't want the administration to know what I whisper under my breath  

As a Psychologist (the science kind, not the therapist kind), I don't buy the suicide theory. It doesn't fit with a suicide profile (precedence are suicide by cop, large immediate media events (school shootings, etc.), hostage-taking, manifestos, behavioral profiles, etc.) It might be a new thing - I can't say. But if it is, then no one knows anything about the 'why.'

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-20 16:15:26 and read 34365 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 122):
The Russian dashcams can't withstand 300gs and 30 minutes of a jet fuel fire

I'm not saying use a consumer item. What I'm saying is that if it is prudent to record for the sake of accidents 2 to 4 occupants in a car, spending $50 to do so, then it is definitely sensible to securely record more than just 2 hours of audio in the pointy end that is used each *day* for *years* to transport 150 to 400 people per day safely over long distances.

Data transmission costs and data storage costs are dropping to zero. Higher capacity satellite data links get added each month. If they can (and do) put freaking wifi on a plane via a hotspot, for the amusement of passengers, they can dump data key data continuously without going bankrupt.

The reasons are not technical, nor are they cost, they are pushback from pilots who resent the implied mistrust, coupled with a sense of complacency that what exists is currently good enough for all eventualities. There were seismic changes in liberties and trillions spent post 9/11, with many trampled rights, as a result of the deaths of 2000 something people. It seems cost is irrelevant when it comes to only certain risks!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: DJM18
Posted 2014-03-20 16:15:57 and read 34540 times.

A twist on the shadow theory:

This again is pure speculation but perhaps the intent was not to shadow but rather to crash one plane into another. They failed in their attempts and the plan was to then fly south so as to leave no evidence so some other terrorist cell could repeat at a future date. This is one way I was able to explain the turns to the north (if they happened) and the turns around the waypoints (if they are indeed confirmed).

I do no think it was either of the pilots but rather someone who found a way to gain access to the cockpit, The reason I do no think it was the pilots is that it is hard for me to imagine either of them turning into mass murderers. I believe in their innocence until their is solid evidence to the contrary. I also feel it may have not been a passenger but someone who found a way to get onto the plane without being on the flight manifest.

Again, just a crazy theory late in the day...and I still believe that very serious effort should be given to the electrical fire and other mechanical scenarios unitl we have hard data to the contrary.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: theaviator380
Posted 2014-03-20 16:16:55 and read 34306 times.

Quoting lucaspithan (Reply 111):

I was told by someone on this forum itself that, in this time and age paths are already fed in FMS, Pilots just need to pull them on screen and select them. Back in days they might be feeding info manually however now with modern computing that part has become very easy and automated.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 16:17:10 and read 34336 times.

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 123):
I've readjusted my Volkswagen to a large cat.

IIRC that is about the size of the main CVR canister (the part that holds the data).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Capt747Ret
Posted 2014-03-20 16:17:41 and read 34654 times.

I’ve followed this similar train of thought almost from the start, or at least variations of it.
The Captain wanted to go out in a way that would make a statement. I’m not going to try to figure out the reasoning why someone who would do this. When people are stressed in their personal life, this can take all manner of form, they put on an outward persona while harboring an inside Mr. Hyde.
He did this for his version of fame and/or revenge that lived in a dark twisted alcove of his mind. Just because he didn’t express his troubles doesn’t mean that he was without them. People hold all kinds of things in their minds that they never express. Some fester until the person explodes or does something rash while most learn to deal with it.
He is an extreme example of some people we have all met. The volcano waiting to explode. Some explode violently while others plan their event. Society is full of examples. We see all too much of this in the headlines of the day.
I don’t profess to know it all. I have been around some who have acted like this that yes took their lives. I believe that he thought “screw the world. I’m going where they will never find me.”
At this point he didn’t care about anyone else. He made a commitment to himself. He was going to become “famous” in a way that encouraged him on. Like Amelia Earhart he would fly to a place where he and the a/c would never be found while leaving a riddle that can’t be solved. In his mind he will fall off the face of the earth and everyone will try to figure it out for the next 100 years.
In this warped twisted thinking he would “win”.
This is the way I connect the dots. I believe that the dots are screaming at us. I’m probably a little off in many of the details but that is less important than the overall concept and flow.
His time had come and he was just waiting for the right flight to do it. It happened to be #370. Just after the change over from Malaysia to Viet Mam he turned the transponder to standby. When Malaysia handed off 370 they naturally stopped monitoring it as it was now Viet Nams’ privy. The Malaysian controller mentally turned elsewhere. He know that. Viet Nam was just wait for their call. He had a window of opportunity.
He incapacitated/killed the co-pilot around this time. He already premeditated how he was going to do this. He may have made an announcement that they were having some problems with the pressurization but all would be ok. He needed to keep the pax calm.
Put on his oxygen mask, then depressurized the cabin. The oxygen masks either auto deployed or he deployed them manually.
Waiting a few minutes for the pax to use most or all of the oxygen he then pulled the a/c up to FL 450. With no supplemental oxygen the pax and flight attendants would go to sleep and expire.
As he topped out at FL 450 the a/c stalled and he recovered at FL 230. He then climbed to 29,500 (very non-standard). This would keep him between any traffic.
Being that no debris would be found in the Malaysia/Viet Nam areas and the flight may be monitored turning back, he headed westerly. He may have used this as a false cover to where he really intended to go. This would lead investigators into another wrong direction as he then turned southerly into the middle of nowhere.
He flew the a/c till fuel exhaustion and crashed into the ocean.
Just because he was a Captain doesn’t mean that he knew all about the a/c. If he know that it would ping he may have taken efforts to silence that too. Either he forgot or didn’t know.
He was obviously a passionate pilot. He loved to fly. I understand this because I love flying too and was privileged to have flown some of the world biggest a/c. His love of flying was more than most. That is why he had a flight simulator at home. I commend him. He kept his flying skills up. He didn’t buy it to prepare for this mission.
Being that the flight sim was wiped clean means that he used it to develop this scenario. He wanted everyone to keep guessing with the enigma that he left.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: lucaspithan
Posted 2014-03-20 16:18:54 and read 34336 times.

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 118):

wow! Thats worse than AF447.
Its gonna take a lot of time to find de black boxes.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 777stl
Posted 2014-03-20 16:19:34 and read 34156 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 114):
1 S-3B squadron (primarily designed for electronic countermeasures, with some limited search capacity),

Other than a VX squadron and the PMRF, the S-3 has been retired from active service.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: cbrboy
Posted 2014-03-20 16:22:43 and read 33938 times.

Quoting Capt747Ret (Reply 128):

Agree that this is the most likely scenario. It is also most likely that he has succeeded and the wreckage will never be found.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 16:23:50 and read 33770 times.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 124):
I'm not saying use a consumer item. What I'm saying is that if it is prudent to record for the sake of accidents 2 to 4 occupants in a car, spending $50 to do so, then it is definitely sensible to securely record more than just 2 hours of audio in the pointy end that is used each *day* for *years* to transport 150 to 400 people per day safely over long distances.

Data transmission costs and data storage costs are dropping to zero. Higher capacity satellite data links get added each month. If they can (and do) put freaking wifi on a plane via a hotspot, for the amusement of passengers, they can dump data key data continuously without going bankrupt.

I agree that there is nothing holding them back from recording audio, video, anything they want, for as long as they want, from the entire pressure vessel including the damn cargo hold if they want, on crash-proof digital storage. I don't believe that there is a single aerospace component manufacturer on the planet who could not pull off this project.

WiFi on a plane is usually ground stations, not satellites. The "broadband" satellites with ocean coverage are actually pathetically slow by ground standards, and their bandwidth is more limited than it you would imagine - it is impossible to do what you are saying. The cost of space-based bandwidth is far too high. This has been dismissed as unworkable many times by multiple people, some of whom actually work or have worked in that industry. It's best not to rehash this argument but instead read over the previous threads to know why you're wrong.

A solution was floated by tomlee I believe by reprogramming the ELT to broadcast on 406 when an aircraft is in an usual state. This would put a heavy load on the 406 system but it is already capable of triangulating a signal anywhere in the world, and is already capable of receiving test messages with data. This might be the best solution I've heard so far for tracking aircraft in a manner that is completely independent from flight systems.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: theaviator380
Posted 2014-03-20 16:24:39 and read 33597 times.

What time SAR team was suppose to reach there? It's morning in Perth now ..so may be in another 2-3 hours will be day light around suspected area?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: studedave
Posted 2014-03-20 16:25:03 and read 33727 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 114):
Except that almost all the aircraft on a carrier are unsuited for searching.
A typical USN carrier has 4 FA-18 squadrons (fighters, unsuited because they can't fly slowly enough), 1 EA-6B squadron (unsuited, it's designed for air defence suppression), 1 E-2 squadron (unsuited, it's designed for battle management / command and control), 1 S-3B squadron (primarily designed for electronic countermeasures, with some limited search capacity), and 1 SH-60F/H squadron (designed for anti-submarine warfare). The SH60F/H (which are being replaced by MH60S/Rs) have SAR capacity, but their range/endurance is quite limited - their primary SAR role is to pick up crew from an aircraft that has ditched close to the carrier.
In short, not much that's useful on a carrier.

The EA-6Bs are just about gone. EF-18s are replacing them.
The S-3Bs were like a mini P-3- they hunted subs, and more.
But they have been gone for YEARS~ since before the helos started to be replaced, actually.

H-60s are good for more then four hours unless they are carrying drop tanks. Then they'd be good for more.
They can also HIFR from just about any other boat in the Battle Group. Or just land and refuel.
With good crew planning- you can fly an H-60 for a good 12-14 hours if you want to.




StudeDave

[Edited 2014-03-20 16:28:01]

[Edited 2014-03-20 16:31:16]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: stuyyz
Posted 2014-03-20 16:25:10 and read 33641 times.

too bad they don't have satellite imagery from early Saturday morning 3/8/2014. They probably would have caught the entire plane flying.... this would be much easier to spot and would have been anywhere between 5000 and 35000 feet closer to the satellite.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-20 16:25:43 and read 33619 times.

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 134):

i was under the impression that the sar has continued already today. i'm sorry, i'm wrong. first plane is headed toward possible debris field, 1500 miles from land.

[Edited 2014-03-20 16:32:02]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-20 16:27:46 and read 33467 times.

Quoting 777stl (Reply 130):

What's the replacement? I know the electronics were heavily modified in 2006-07, and it was determined that they were at about 50% of their structural service life.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: MSY-MSP
Posted 2014-03-20 16:28:39 and read 33361 times.

Quoting aw70 (Reply 89):
Then they end up in a remote location, with 230+ hostages they don't tell anybody about? And a slightly used airplane with empty tanks?

What's the point of doing that? And what would the benefit be of keeping this whole situation secret? In particular, why would the perpetrators insist on secrecy? Doing that would not fit any behaviour patterns previously seen at such events. The value of hostages is precisely that everyone knows you are threatening them. That is the very mechanism by which you put pressure on those you wish to influence by the hijacking.

Hostage-takers, with a large bunch of hostages, somewhere in a remote location, and no one talks about them... or with them... that would be very, very strange.

Not that this is the case, but running with it. The one thing that has been the consistent with Al-Qaida and this generation is they don't do anything by the book. They like to try new and different angles to their plots. They rarely seem to repeat the same approach twice. They also like things that make big news, and leave us thinking how did we let this happen. It is the way that they operate.

What is the point of doing what they did. It could simply to prove that they could do it. Let the world sit on it for a while and then make a big splash, but still not say it is them. Hostages may or may not have real value to them. Their value could simply be in giving them the freedom to leave when they are ready to leave. (if you shoot us down you kill the hostages)

Is anyone talking with them? It may simply be that they don't want to talk about it. The one thing that has me actually thinking it may be is the almost complete lack of chatter about it on the known networks. There has only been one group that has come out and said they took the plane. Normally you would see several groups trying to take responsibility for something like this. However, if memory serves me right this was very similar to the back chatter around 9/11.

If, and this is a big IF, this is Al-Qaida or its ilk then most of the playbook that we have used in the past needs to be tossed. We will know what they want us to know on their schedule not ours.

Quoting akberc (Reply 102):
Not possible. The Pakistan military and the US co-operate at many levels -- military, intelligence, general staff education at US military colleges, counter-terrorism etc.. Occasional frosty relations bring the co-operation down a bit, but blatant lies are uncommon. These ties are from the time Pakistan beat the Soviet Union in Afghanistan on behalf of the US.

Sorry I wasn't as clear as I meant to be. In this scenario, Pakistan knows that the US knows. Everyone has been talking on the back end in private classified channels. I meant to say in the scenario that the agreement is that there is no public confirmation of any of this.

As I mentioned earlier, something isn't adding up. Fly north to fly south -- indicates intentional act to crash the plane in the ocean, pilot suicide. Confuse everyone Fly North to Pakistan -- requires bad guys on board and some careful planning. Again plausible. Turning into a zombie flight because of a mechanical/cargo problem seems highly unlikely. To many things occurred at a very precise moment of time to be an accident. Sure it could happen, but the odds of it happening at that precise moment in time is extremely slim.

There is a ghost that we are meant to be chasing. I am just not sure why we are chasing it.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: DTW2HYD
Posted 2014-03-20 16:28:44 and read 33343 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 122):
We have discussed ad-nauseam why satellite downlink of CVR/FDR is not feasible. The Coles Notes are: 1) Not enough space-based bandwidth, orbiting such a constellation would bankrupt all major airlines if you split the cost among them 2) Not enough bandwidth period - as in spectrum space 3) How would you enforce compliance? ICAO can't make mandates, everyone has to agree.

And yet airlines have enough bandwidth to provide Inflight WiFi to browse internet and watch YouTube. Issue is not bandwidth, issue is monopoly.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-20 16:28:45 and read 33430 times.

Quoting Capt747Ret (Reply 128):
His time had come and he was just waiting for the right flight to do it. It happened to be #370.

You forget that it wasn't picked randomly, it was his first flight after quite a personal setback. Imagine if a citizen were invested in a good outcome of the "Arab Spring" in Egypt, and attended a long awaited trial where the Egypt judiciary unexpectedly and outrageously found the leader of the pro-democracy movement newly guilty on a trumped up charge, putting him in jeopardy for prison but definitely out of the election, his party, your party, demoralised and with no obviously successor.

Now, head off to work to sit at the controls of a passenger jet belonging to the flag carrier airline, owned by friends and family of these leaders you have just seen preside over this miscarriage of justice.

Now do you think the flight was just random?

I know this is a terrible scenario, I dearly hope the reason will turn out to be a mechanical flaw, but it is a scenario.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: cbrboy
Posted 2014-03-20 16:29:52 and read 33331 times.

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 134):
What time SAR team was suppose to reach there? It's morning in Perth now ..so may be in another 2-3 hours will be day light around suspected area?

See reply 115 above. It will take the first P-3 about 4 to 5 hours to reach the search zone. They probably departed in the last 90 minutes.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: studedave
Posted 2014-03-20 16:29:55 and read 33297 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 138):
What's the replacement?

There really wasn't one.




StudeDave

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: MarkAK
Posted 2014-03-20 16:30:17 and read 33224 times.

Hi, great forum... This is my first post.
Questions about the FMS and the waypoints. I'm trying to discern the pilot(s) intent on programming those waypoints.


Where was/were the alternate waypoint(s) that were programmed into the FMS that the plane flew toward or over?

Was this a logical waypoint as an emergency alternate?
In an emergency, can the pilot simply use the original origination point i.e. KUL as an emergency alternate waypoint? Did these or other pilots use this same alternate emergency waypoint during previous flights on this same route? Is there a way to know this?

Wouldn't KUL be the most logical emergency alternate waypoint?

Where was the court building that the trial the pilot recently attended located relative to the alternate waypoint?

Scenario ... Pilot(s) wanted to execute a 9/11 style attack on KUL. ....climbed and depressurized to dispatch the PAX and other crew.. set the FMS to turn back toward the target. But something went wrong and he lost consciousness.
Perhaps there was a heroic struggle and everyone was incapacitated. Plane flies on it's own till starvation.


What does the FMS do when the waypoint is reached and no further waypoints are programmed, will it circle the last waypoint or?

Another question.. When the plane flew back over land, at 5000 ft, there should have been cellphone registrations. Has this been checked?
Thanks...Mark

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: theaviator380
Posted 2014-03-20 16:33:13 and read 33000 times.

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 137):

Sorry if I missed it. I hope weather stays good and help SAR team.

Quoting Capt747Ret (Reply 128):

Brilliant summary and very possible hypothesis. Only one thing in it, can crew, F/A break in to cockpit to see why pilot has still not lowered altitude?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: SeeTheWorld
Posted 2014-03-20 16:33:58 and read 33081 times.

Quoting Mouldypete (Reply 107):
As for pilot suicide, why fly for 8 hours before taking the plunge as you risk being stopped by crew and/or passenger action or even losing your nerve?

There are several extremely plausible reasons why it might be suicide, which have been mentioned over and over starting in Thread #1.

[Edited 2014-03-20 16:39:58]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-20 16:34:33 and read 32853 times.

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 146):

i heard they have a 48 hour window before weather gets really bad.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 16:35:13 and read 32918 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 141):
And yet airlines have enough bandwidth to provide Inflight WiFi to browse internet and watch YouTube. Issue is not bandwidth, issue is monopoly.

Most in-flight WiFi is through ground stations. Broadband connectivity over the water through satellite is a fairly recent development, and fantastically expensive. The number of planes equipped with that functionality and active at any one time is a vastly different number than the number of planes *in the air* at any one time.

The bandwidth requirements are immense. It can be done, at incredible cost, but no one will pay for it since it won't save lives. ACARS is good enough and as you see with this accident flight, it's troublesome to convince airlines to pay even for that.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: BravoUniform
Posted 2014-03-20 16:37:00 and read 32877 times.

While we're all waiting for the SAR to resume, I have a question for you 777 illuminati.

A number of planes are specially modified for high elevation operation, wherein the flight crew can disengage the auto pop out of the pax air masks. I recall reading about this some years back with respect to operations out of La Paz, where the unpressurized local altitude setting would in fact be above the automatic rubber jungle threshold.

From a close reading of the 40 threads so far it seems that this is not a 777 option. Is that because the 777 isn't rated/functional for high elevation operations?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: SeeTheWorld
Posted 2014-03-20 16:37:03 and read 32886 times.

Quoting cbrboy (Reply 115):
Conditions in the search zone were tough yesterday - cloudy with rain. Given five days of drifting, if there were any floating objects to start with it will be very hard to locate them now. Be prepared for many days of searching, and the possibility nothing will be found.

If that's it, my bet is that it will be found.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: lucaspithan
Posted 2014-03-20 16:39:30 and read 32916 times.

how many time till the first ship arrive in the area? Is that Norwegian one?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-20 16:39:44 and read 32942 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 149):
ACARS is good enough and as you see with this accident flight, it's troublesome to convince airlines to pay even for that.

Well perhaps it can become compulsory now. How is it that the world can force every airline to spend many more dollars on floatation devices under every seat, but you can't force them to pay for whatever service continuously sends various health data and position fixes to the cloud?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: bueb0g
Posted 2014-03-20 16:43:55 and read 32618 times.

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 63):
First of all, the likelihood that the FDR and the CVR were disabled is very low. Apparently the breakers for those two are located in the EE bay, which is where the breaker for the Satcom link is located as well. Since the Satcom was still active it is unlikely that anyone went into the EE bay to disconnect the CVR/FDR.

CVR and FDR circuit breakers are above the overhead panel, within easy access of the pilots. They are not in the EE bay and neither is the "breaker for the Satcom link".

Quoting SimonDanger (Reply 73):
IIRC, the FDR keeps up to 25 hours of data, while the CVR only saves 2 hours...why? Why is voice not able to be compressed down small enough that it too can be saved for the same period of time?

Because usually 2 hrs is all you need and there are worries about pilot privacy with long recordings.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 16:44:01 and read 32554 times.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 153):
Well perhaps it can become compulsory now. How is it that the world can force every airline to spend many more dollars on floatation devices under every seat, but you can't force them to pay for whatever service continuously sends various health data and position fixes to the cloud?

The world doesn't force anything; regulations mandate it in various parts of the world (or you can't enter their airspace) and membership to certain alliances requires compliance with the mandates. It is mutually beneficial to comply.

Should real-time AHM ACARS over SATCOM be mandatory for world-class carriers? Well, yes, I think so. Would it have helped this SAR effort at all? No, since it was disabled.


Quoting bueb0g (Reply 154):
They are not in the EE bay and neither is the "breaker for the Satcom link".

I believe multiple 777 pilots have said there is no breaker for the SATCOM modem on the flight deck, but disabling ACARS over SATCOM is possible through the maintenance menus on the MFD.

I could be wrong. I have never been on a 777, much less up front.

[Edited 2014-03-20 22:40:40 by SA7700]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 7BOEING7
Posted 2014-03-20 16:56:04 and read 31444 times.

Quoting bueb0g (Reply 154):
CVR and FDR circuit breakers are above the overhead panel, within easy access of the pilots.

Not on the overhead CB panels I'm looking at. Can you specify the position ( letter/number)?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-20 17:00:08 and read 31143 times.

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 9):
I don't understand how the Maldivian sighting is just being ignored. A whole island full of people are saying they saw the plane flying low at exactly the right time and as the government just says "we didn't see it on radar" aand that's the end of it.

Apart from this particular report being inconsistent with the satellite data, eye witness accounts are notoriously unreliable. People, even groups, easily fool themselves into believing things based on scant sensory inputs.

Besides, I'm sure authorities haven't just ignored this lead.

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 63):
We will likely never get anything of real value off the CVR when it is found as the data will have been overwritten several times from when contact was lost. Though if we hear nothing on the CVR then that would lead to the conclusion of a suicide or no live activity in the cockpit in the 2 hours prior to the end of the flight. The FDR working for 25 hours will give us a lot of the information about the actual flight, but won't necessarily tell us what happened.
Quoting bond007 (Reply 116):

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 99):
You do not need to hear what happened 20 minutes into this flight to determine the cause.

In this scenario, unlike any other incident, the earlier missing part of the CVR might well be the most important, and the last few hours useless.

Even if only the last two hours are recorded, the CVR would be far from useless.

CVRs not only record conversations in the cockpit. They also record any radio comms and, importantly in this case, comms between the cabin and the cockpit. We don't know if the F/As tried to contact the cockpit in the last hours of flight. Even without any voice at all, CVRs record the audio environment. Every switch press, every alarm, every call bell, even ambient noises like engine and wind. Investigators can often make reasonable estimates regarding engine thrust based only on noise recorded by the CVR.

Quoting boeingforever (Reply 86):
wouldn't the plane sink to the bottom? why would it be on the surface.

It very much depends on the nature of the impact. An intact plane would sink, but bits and pieces might well float because of trapped air pockets. A plane is mostly filled with air, after all, and even Jet Fuel is less dense than water. Floating debris has resulted from numerous crashes, including the famous AF447 fin.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 103):
9M-MRO was built in 2002 and would not have used the same technology as in 1994 for the recorders.

It would not necessarily change. Unless it meant a significant per-unit savings, Boeing wouldn't spend the considerable money to certify a brand new system if the old one worked fine and was compliant with regulations.

Quoting lucaspithan (Reply 111):

Take a look at this crash that happened in Brazil in 1989. Could it happen in the case of MH370? Or something like that?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Varig_Flight_254

"Prior to take off from Marabá, Pará, towards the final destination, the crew entered an incorrect heading into the flight computer. Instead of flying towards its destination, the plane flew due west and after some time was over a remote area of the Amazon jungle.[3][4] Attempts to reach an alternative airport were unsuccessful, and the plane eventually ran out of fuel. The pilot made a belly landing in the jungle,[5] 1,050 miles (1,690 km) northwest of Rio de Janeiro.[6] The survivors were rescued two days later.[5] Thirteen passengers died, and many more sustained serious injuries.[7]"

Are there any possibilities of the crew had to change the destination inflight?

Of course the crew can change the destination in flight. There wouldn't be much point in having a flight crew if they couldn't control the aircraft.

I think the Varig 254 scenario is exceedingly unlikely since if they went the wrong way they would still have had voice comms and transponder.

[Edited 2014-03-20 17:01:46]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: redflyer
Posted 2014-03-20 17:04:22 and read 30728 times.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 99):
But what would you really gain by hearing 25 hours of pilot-speak?

Ensuring that all conversations and sounds in the cockpit immediately before, during, and following a flight are captured. It would provide invaluable analysis of what transpired in a cockpit during a flight. Something that may have happened at the beginning of a flight could have had an impact at the termination point of the flight. Such as an argument between the pilots; one pilot sleeping for the duration of the flight, etc. It would also ensure cockpit conversations are reconciled with FDR data. If something happened to an aircraft system 23 hours prior, what was going on in the cockpit with the pilots during that event?

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 110):
Recording 4 channels of this for 50 hours would be about 100GB. This is completely uncompressed - real-time lossless compression can cut this in half.

There is no technical reason it isn't done. My belief is that it is not done a) because regulations don't require it b) for privacy reasons - it would record more than the accident flight.

My personal opinion is that it was never done because at one point the cost of memory was high and it wasn't as compact, and even when that changed there was a feeling that only the period immediately prior to an accident occurring as a result of pilot error was important to capture. Now that we've had a few instances where the starting point of a chain of events resulting in a mishap can extend out for several hours I would be willing to bet the authorities are going to take another look at this issue. I would say a CVR with longer recording capability and ELT batteries that last longer than 30 days will be at the top of the list of changes mandated for the industry.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 120):
Right, but for example let's say you have a conversation with your F/O about you cheating on your wife. The flight after you encounters an event that has the CVR read, and now your conversation is part of an investigation. I don't pretend to know the details, I'm only hypothesizing, but I imagine the unions would have a problem with that.

That conversation about boinking another woman could be had within the current 2 hour recording period, and could just as easily become part of the investigation.

[Edited 2014-03-20 17:06:49]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Mortyman
Posted 2014-03-20 17:08:03 and read 30607 times.

Quoting lucaspithan (Reply 152):
how many time till the first ship arrive in the area? Is that Norwegian one?

The Norwegian ship arrived to the area about 12 hours ago. They have been searching but it has been night / dark and difficult to see because of that. Howeer they will continue at sunrise and will be the only ship in the area for another day. Other ships are still fairly far away.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 17:08:03 and read 30435 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 158):
It would not necessarily change. Unless it meant a significant per-unit savings, Boeing wouldn't spend the considerable money to certify a brand new system if the old one worked fine and was compliant with regulations.

I don't think it would be mostly Boeing's doing, as the CVR/FDR are manufactured by third parties like Honeywell. Considering the incredible pace with which digital storage advanced in that timeframe, I find it highly unlikely that they were fitting such ancient designs to a modern aircraft. That much flash storage in 94 would have been insanely expensive, certifying a new part with new tech would increase their profit margin going forward.

Quoting redflyer (Reply 159):
I would say a CVR with longer recording capability and ELT batteries that last longer than 30 days will be at the top of the list of changes mandated for the industry.

Do ELT batteries last for 30 days? I thought it was considerably less. I believe it is the ULBs on the FDR/CVR that last a minimum of 30 days (at which point they usually lose ~50% of their power).

Quoting redflyer (Reply 159):
That conversation about boinking another woman could be had within the current 2 hour recording period, and could just as easily become part of the investigation.

Right, but it's relevant since it's part of the accident flight. I'm not saying it's a good thing, I say damn the privacy and record everything you can, but you can understand why there would be pushback and why there may be some reasonable arguments from the other side.

[Edited 2014-03-20 22:42:00 by SA7700]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-20 17:15:37 and read 29976 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 161):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 158):
It would not necessarily change. Unless it meant a significant per-unit savings, Boeing wouldn't spend the considerable money to certify a brand new system if the old one worked fine and was compliant with regulations.

I don't think it would be mostly Boeing's doing, as the CVR/FDR are manufactured by third parties like Honeywell. Considering the incredible pace with which digital storage advanced in that timeframe, I find it highly unlikely that they were fitting such ancient designs to a modern aircraft. That much flash storage in 94 would have been insanely expensive, certifying a new part with new tech would increase their profit margin going forward.

This plane was built 11 years ago, well before flash memory became cheap. Older recorders did not even use flash memory because, as you say, it was insanely expensive. They used magnetic tape. And magnetic tape might well be quite cheap still. My point is that making recorders did not suddenly become much cheaper because flash memory has become cheaper because they were using an entirely different technology.

No idea what the 777 started with, if it was changed, and what this plane had.

[Edited 2014-03-20 17:16:37]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-20 17:15:39 and read 30072 times.

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 13):
Here's a sobering thought - lets not forget that there are 239 *people*, that are missing. Souls out there. Its not just 5 letters and numbers (MH370). That is the subject of all this speculation.

  

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 13):
The only 'fact' is its still missing. And beating on the crew or whoever, to be brutally honest, is wearing thin

  

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 108):
What is the hard drive capacity necessary for those 2 hours?

Not much -but it has to be solid state. Hard drive would never survivie.

---
Nothing had changed - nothing. So no need for updated Sanity Check yet.
I just went through it - trying to find anything substantial to change.

That is very depressing.....

Link to the current "Sanity Check"

Sanity Check - current version. (by rcair1)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 7BOEING7
Posted 2014-03-20 17:15:43 and read 29990 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 158):
It would not necessarily change. Unless it meant a significant per-unit savings, Boeing wouldn't spend the considerable money to certify a brand new system if the old one worked fine and was compliant with regulations.

As technology changed Honeywell improved the product and Boeing certified it (one flight -- flown more than a few of those). All for the most part backwards compatible so when your original CVR/DFDR goes bad you end up with an updated one. FAA gets in there too sometimes requiring updates.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: akberc
Posted 2014-03-20 17:16:52 and read 29930 times.

Hopefully, in a few hours, we would have confirmed the latest MH-370 SAR is fruitful. Meanwhile ---

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 140):
(Al-Qaeda) like things that make big news, and leave us thinking how did we let this happen. It is the way that they operate.

Yes, but only from a Western person-on-the-street point of view. However, there is a method to their madness beyond the news splash. In light of some comments in a very early thread on what terrorists want, the likely demand in your scenario would be the release of prisoners in exchange for hostages. With most of the hostages being Chinese, there would be pressure on Pakistan, but little on the US. Also, do not forget Al-Qaeda financiers are wealthy Arabs and large terrorist ops planning goes to the very top of Al-Qaeda -- why would they hurt Malaysia? And which prisoners are worth the trouble? And even if they were to get KSM released -- where would he be dropped off by the US? Also, China has cleared its passengers, Malaysians would not be trained al-Qaeda terrorists without being on some kind of list. That leaves a couple of people from a bunch of nationalities on the plane and the two Iranians. Sorry, it logically doesn't add up if we can assign any rationality to Al-Qaeda.

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 140):
As I mentioned earlier, something isn't adding up. Fly north to fly south -- indicates intentional act to crash the plane

Or, Indonesia may have missed seeing it over Aceh, but is not fessing up -- just as Thailand was a few days late in reporting it saw it. That would discount the northerly turn, and Malaysian radar's last known northerly point is pretty vague, not exact.

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 140):
Confuse everyone Fly North to Pakistan -- requires bad guys on board and some careful planning.

9/11 was barely possible with a 5 trained hijackers per aircraft ( a bunch of them were known to anti-terrorist intelligence) and very few passengers. So, this is highly unlikely due to lack of a group of trained terrorists (see above) who were not on any country's list, post 9/11.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: bennett123
Posted 2014-03-20 17:17:49 and read 29862 times.

DJM18

Don't really buy that.

There is no report of the SIA aircraft crew seeing another B777.

By definition, they could not have taken avoiding action.

If those flying got within a few hundred yards of the SIA, it is hard to see how they missed it.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 17:22:26 and read 29312 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 163):
This plane was built 11 years ago, well before flash memory became cheap. Older recorders did not even use flash memory because, as you say, it was insanely expensive. They used magnetic tape. And magnetic tape might well be quite cheap still. My point is that making recorders did not suddenly become much cheaper because flash memory has become cheaper because they were using an entirely different technology.

No idea what the 777 started with, if it was changed, and what this plane had.

Everything you say is true, and I am aware that magnetic tape was the de-facto standard for a long time.

All I am saying is that I think it is highly unlikely that the accident aircraft was not equipped with digital FDR/CVR. I would personally be very surprised to find any magnetic tape on an aircraft built in 2002.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Mortyman
Posted 2014-03-20 17:24:02 and read 29514 times.

Don't know if this piece from the Washington Post has been posted before:



A simple computer upgrade that Malaysia Airlines decided not to purchase would have provided critical information to help find the airliner that disappeared 12 days ago.

The upgrade, which wholesales for about $10 per flight, would have provided investigators with the direction, speed and altitude of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 even after other communications from the plane went dark, said a satellite industry official familiar with the equipment.

The new information indicates that had the upgrade for a system called Swift been installed, it would have continued to send flight data by satellite even after signals from the plane’s transponder and Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) went dead.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...-11e3-a49e-76adc9210f19_story.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 7BOEING7
Posted 2014-03-20 17:24:25 and read 29181 times.

Quoting redflyer (Reply 159):
I would say a CVR with longer recording capability and ELT batteries that last longer than 30 days will be at the top of the list of changes mandated for the industry.

ELT batteries have a very short life after being activated, a couple of hours max.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 17:30:34 and read 28721 times.

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 169):
Don't know if this piece from the Washington Post has been posted before:



A simple computer upgrade that Malaysia Airlines decided not to purchase would have provided critical information to help find the airliner that disappeared 12 days ago.

The upgrade, which wholesales for about $10 per flight, would have provided investigators with the direction, speed and altitude of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 even after other communications from the plane went dark, said a satellite industry official familiar with the equipment.

The new information indicates that had the upgrade for a system called Swift been installed, it would have continued to send flight data by satellite even after signals from the plane’s transponder and Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) went dead.

It has been posted,

Are they talking about Swift64? So it would have used the same INMARSAT-3 anyway? I'm not sure it would be $10/flight, but it's true, they could have allowed for more detailed ACARS to go over SATCOM - but that can be disabled from the flight deck. Unknown if this would have helped this flight at all.

edit: Also, you have to be a *little* bit skeptical when an unnamed person in that industry says "our product could have helped here". More ACARS would have been nice, yes, but...

[Edited 2014-03-20 17:32:09]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-20 17:32:59 and read 28565 times.

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 169):
Don't know if this piece from the Washington Post has been posted before:

A simple computer upgrade that Malaysia Airlines decided not to purchase would have provided critical information to help find the airliner that disappeared 12 days ago.

The upgrade, which wholesales for about $10 per flight, would have provided investigators with the direction, speed and altitude of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 even after other communications from the plane went dark, said a satellite industry official familiar with the equipment.

The new information indicates that had the upgrade for a system called Swift been installed, it would have continued to send flight data by satellite even after signals from the plane’s transponder and Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) went dead.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...-11e3-a49e-76adc9210f19_story.html

Yes it has been posted, but that's beside the point. All the fancy tracking technology in the world is pretty useless if it is turned off in the aircraft.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-20 17:33:59 and read 28591 times.

Quoting studedave (Reply 135):
The EA-6Bs are just about gone. EF-18s are replacing them.
The S-3Bs were like a mini P-3- they hunted subs, and more.
But they have been gone for YEARS~ since before the helos started to be replaced, actually.

Jeez dude - you're making me feel my age. As I recall, the S-3Bs were still around in 2009-10 (last time I was on a carrier) - but maybe I'm wrong. Anyway, I think my basic point is still valid - there's not a whole lot on a carrier that's suited to this kind of mission. I was initially replying to a post that suggested that the search would be expedited if you throw a lot of carrier-based aircraft into it.

Anyway, the first aircraft should be about an hour away from the site. Hopefully, there'll be news. I wonder if they sent the P-8 out first - it would get to the area faster, but more limited on station time.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: twincessna340a
Posted 2014-03-20 17:35:08 and read 28571 times.

AMSA has posted Day Four (March 21st) search handouts.

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/mh370-search.asp

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: prebennorholm
Posted 2014-03-20 17:35:20 and read 28487 times.

Quoting bueb0g (Reply 154):
Because usually 2 hrs is all you need and there are worries about pilot privacy with long recordings.

Originally it was 30 minutes because that was what was practical with a tape spool which had to be protected against heat and impact. Later, as flash memory was invented, it was extended to 2 hours.

If recorders had been invented today, then nobody would have dreamed about covering less than the whole flight from power-on at the gate until incident/accident - 18+ hours on a 777-200LR.

As for privacy, it is already an issue today, as an incident/accident at takeoff or shortly later can easily leave recorded data from a previous crew on the same plane.

But privacy should never be an issue since design wise it's a no-brainer to automatically delete data before every takeoff. And privacy issues should never relate to FDR data, only CVR data.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 17:41:06 and read 28018 times.

I gotta ask you military guys, why is it called "station" time? I totally understand "loiter", but why "station"?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: cbrboy
Posted 2014-03-20 17:45:05 and read 28257 times.

Quoting twincessna340a (Reply 174):
AMSA has posted Day Four (March 21st) search handouts.

Thanks! This is probably the key map to understand the southern search so far and the search area planned for today.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-20 17:47:32 and read 27943 times.

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 169):
A simple computer upgrade that Malaysia Airlines decided not to purchase would have provided critical information to help find the airliner that disappeared 12 days ago.

ACARS isn't a SAR device, it's mostly about MX. And it would be silly if people try and mandate ACARS be mandatory when you have transponders which are there to track the flight. And for what? So you could watch a crazy pilot kill everyone instead of not know where the crazy pilot killed everyone? Or watch the crazy pilot turn ACARS off and then go somewhere unknown and kill everyone? Because there will always be an on/off switch for everything on an aircraft as long as reason prevails

We can brainstorm a million different ideas but at the end of the day, if a pilot goes rogue, that pilot has a very good chance of killing everyone no matter what measures we put in place (and most of the measures I've seen floated around are accidents waiting to happen themselves)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Air NZ
Posted 2014-03-20 17:47:43 and read 28153 times.

Was looking at FlightRadar24 and saw a Global express heading SW out of Perth. I assume this is the Civil Gulstream they are talking about taking part.

FlightAware has origin and destination as Perth. http://flightaware.com/live/flight/VHTGG

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: redflyer
Posted 2014-03-20 17:48:35 and read 27804 times.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 170):
ELT batteries have a very short life after being activated, a couple of hours max.

Sorry, should have said ULB, not ELT.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: TheRedBAron
Posted 2014-03-20 17:48:41 and read 27890 times.

Bu the time I come back from vacation this theme will be in its 55 parts.... and most probably the mystery will linger on.

Sadly I think the possibilities for recovery of the wreckage (provided the Aircraft is in the south ocean) is slim to none, most parts would have sunk and the amount of fuel will be very small so any ocean slick will be smallish, maybe skydrol or other oils will give its posible crash site...

In the mean time we still don't have any strong data to support the finding or what happened....

TRB

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 17:53:49 and read 27658 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 180):
And it would be silly if people try and mandate ACARS be mandatory when you have transponders which are there to track the flight. And for what? So you could watch a crazy pilot kill everyone instead of not know where the crazy pilot killed everyone? Or watch the crazy pilot turn ACARS off and then go somewhere unknown and kill everyone? Because there will always be an on/off switch for everything on an aircraft as long as reason prevails

I think they should also delete the yokes and side-sticks and throttles from airliners because they can be used to crash an aircraft.

 

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: antskip
Posted 2014-03-20 17:56:33 and read 27373 times.

"conditions are improving, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology told AFP. "Showers associated with the passage of a cold front on Thursday, which saw low cloud and drizzle affect visibility, are easing," the bureau said. "Winds are currently 15-20 knots, with swell 2 to 2.5 metres, and also easing. Overall conditions are expected to slowly improve today for the search operations in the area."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11223345

NZ Herald Video of weather in the area of search:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/national/n...&gal_cid=1503075&gallery_id=141847

[Edited 2014-03-20 17:58:51]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: studedave
Posted 2014-03-20 18:00:28 and read 27018 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 173):
Jeez dude - you're making me feel my age. As I recall, the S-3Bs were still around in 2009-10 (last time I was on a carrier) - but maybe I'm wrong.

I feel ya. I retired in September, 2008~ lots of changes since then. Per Wikipedia~

"The final carrier based S-3B Squadron, VS-22 was decommissioned at NAS Jacksonville on 29 January 2009. Sea Control Wing Atlantic was decommissioned the following day on 30 January 2009, concurrent with the U.S. Navy retiring the last S-3B Viking from front-line Fleet service."

Knowing how this process works- I'd bet the last carrier deployment was late 2007 to early/mid 2008...?



StudeDave

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-20 18:01:17 and read 27387 times.

Here is an interesting article that links to a few videos:

"Pilot 'made call in cockpit minutes before take off'"

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/201...in-cockpit-minutes-before-take-off

There is also a link to a video with the girl who was in the cockpit with the FO on another flight. She talks about why she came forward and spoke...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: N328KF
Posted 2014-03-20 18:08:38 and read 26491 times.

I think one key question that needs to be asked is, why did Malaysian authorities not sound the alarm after the aircraft went off the scopes for an extended period of time? I think we all understand how it disappeared initially, as sloppily as that was handled. Had the Malaysians (or Vietnamese) put out the alert sooner, other neighboring countries (could have been much faster at ensuring that their military radar systems were fully energized. Had the Indians and Australians been given a heads-up, we might have solved this mystery much sooner, or perhaps it might not have come to the same conclusion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MH370#Timeline_of_tracking

[Edited 2014-03-20 18:10:40]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-20 18:10:18 and read 26550 times.

Quoting DJM18 (Reply 125):
A twist on the shadow theory:

This again is pure speculation but perhaps the intent was not to shadow but rather to crash one plane into another. They failed in their attempts and the plan was to then fly south so as to leave no evidence so some other terrorist cell could repeat at a future date. This is one way I was able to explain the turns to the north (if they happened) and the turns around the waypoints (if they are indeed confirmed).

I do no think it was either of the pilots but rather someone who found a way to gain access to the cockpit, The reason I do no think it was the pilots is that it is hard for me to imagine either of them turning into mass murderers. I believe in their innocence until their is solid evidence to the contrary. I also feel it may have not been a passenger but someone who found a way to get onto the plane without being on the flight manifest.

Again, just a crazy theory late in the day...and I still believe that very serious effort should be given to the electrical fire and other mechanical scenarios unitl we have hard data to the contrary.

I just posted a link above that is suggesting the Captain made a phone call just before takeoff. If the Captain did make a call, which has not yet been confirmed, perhaps he knew and contacted a pilot on the flight he intended to shadow to check if it would be on time... Just another 'twist' on this theory... If a pilot was involved and planned to shadow another jet, maybe a pilot of the other jet was involved. Or, maybe he called somebody at his destination to get the green light...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-20 18:13:22 and read 26106 times.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 170):
ELT batteries have a very short life after being activated, a couple of hours max

Nope - for instance the Honeywell Rescu 406 ANF has a specified operating battery life of 50 hours. Not 30 days, but not a couple hours.

I think the poster was talking about the pingers on FDR/CVR which are spec'd for min 30 days.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-20 18:14:31 and read 26052 times.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 187):

took them 13 days to go through his call logs?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-20 18:25:33 and read 25107 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 176):
why is it called "station" time?

Just means "in the assigned position".

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: akberc
Posted 2014-03-20 18:26:15 and read 25065 times.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 188):
Had the Indians and Australians been given a heads-up, we might have solved this mystery much sooner, or perhaps it might not have come to the same conclusion.

In hindsight yes, but it would have been probably taken as alarmist and stupid at 2:30 a.m. on March 8th to alert half a hemisphere that they've lost contact with a plane over Vietnam (presumably) for the last one hour. And the alert communicaiton would have to go through civilian and military hierarchy on both sides in the early hours of the morning for any action to be taken. It would surely have resulted in a meeting with the boss had the plane been located or found crashed on its flight path.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-20 18:27:09 and read 25257 times.

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 32):
Do you recognize the airport on the screen of the pilots simulator shown in this photo? It looks like Polonia International or maybe Phuket doesn't it?

It's definitely Amsterdam, as others have said. Amsterdam is also a destination for MH's 777s.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 141):
And yet airlines have enough bandwidth to provide Inflight WiFi to browse internet and watch YouTube. Issue is not bandwidth, issue is monopoly.
Quoting jelliesR (Reply 117):
Forget just audio, almost every car in Russia seemingly has a dashcam recording sometimes two channels of HQ video. There should be video in the cockpit, uploaded by satellite data link in bursts to the cloud. Bus and train drivers: video. Banks: video. Air traffic controllers: constant monitoring. Casino dealers: video. Cockpits? overdue. it would make accident investigations much cheaper and more effective. Did he nudge that lever or was it deliberate? only video answers those questions.

How many of these satcoms have truly global coverage? Only Iridium, and they haven't got much bandwidth terminal capability. Inmarsat covers all but the polar regions. Safety services are using the old lower bandwidth services, the current SwiftBroadband is only 432kbps and runs at $4.5 per MB (forget those cheap bandwidths on SwiftBroadband for passengers... they're subsidized by the airline), safety services have even lower bandwidth (that is until SBB is entering safety services in 2015). The 1-3mbps Ku-band systems used by Turkish, Garuda, Southwest, etc... don't have global coverage, and they lease bandwidth from commercial satellites... The 10-30mbps Ka-band systems are just beginning to enter the market and isn't cheap, and has small coverage globally... the InmarsatGX is going to be the first one to have near global coverage. Each of these are going to cost about $0.5 - $3 per MB.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 155):
Should real-time AHM ACARS over SATCOM be mandatory for world-class carriers? Well, yes, I think so. Would it have helped this SAR effort at all? No, since it was disabled.

Question: Who's going to pay for it? (the bandwidth)
Breakdown ARINC & SITA's duopoly on this first then we can talk.
Allow standardization of these things to be able to happen over SatCom outside SITA/ARINC's ATN first... then we can talk... coz then costs can go down...

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 156):
I believe multiple 777 pilots have said there is no breaker for the SATCOM modem on the flight deck, but disabling ACARS over SATCOM is possible through the maintenance menus on the MFD.

That is correct.

Quoting akberc (Reply 166):
Yes, but only from a Western person-on-the-street point of view.

Disagree. If we look at several past cases, terrorists don't always own up to their actions. Are all suicide bombings followed by the terrorist organizations claiming responsibility? No. Your average street guy running towards a mall and blowing himself up, isn't usually followed by an Al-Qaeda communique claiming responsibility. I was on a TV interview last night alongside our former chief of national intelligence, he too reiterated the same thing... terrorists don't always own up. And they like spectacular effects to their actions. If MH370 disappearance is a terrorist action, not saying anything at the moment and not revealing where it is or what happened to it, gains that spectacular effect... the whole world media is talking about it. Hell! It has even replaced the Crimean crisis off the main headlines!

Quoting akberc (Reply 166):
Indonesia may have missed seeing it over Aceh, but is not fessing up

Again, no. Our military has specifically said no, we did not detect it on our radars over our airspace/territory. Plus, MH370's direction of travel does indicate a possibility that he knew where our radars are as well (and it's not hard to figure out where it would be).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: N328KF
Posted 2014-03-20 18:29:56 and read 24856 times.

Quoting akberc (Reply 193):
It would surely have resulted in a meeting with the boss had the plane been located or found crashed on its flight path.

I'm guessing nobody would have pitched a fit over raising the alarm if there had actually been a crash, no matter where.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-20 18:33:11 and read 24552 times.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 189):
Just another 'twist' on this theory...

Just another baseless assumption that makes the theory even less likely. Let's investigate the phone call first and see where it leads us, shall we? Seriously, some of these theories keep getting whackier and whackier and have nothing solid backing them up

[Edited 2014-03-20 18:33:30]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: B777fan
Posted 2014-03-20 18:34:47 and read 24397 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 176):
why is it called "station" time? I totally understand "loiter", but why "station"

Not a military guy but station is used as an assigned location, such as 'I was stationed at Nellis AFB'. The phrase 'on station' is often used instead of loiter. It would of course refer to the time one was able to remain at an assigned location.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 18:37:35 and read 24188 times.

Quoting B777fan (Reply 197):
Not a military guy but station is used as an assigned location, such as 'I was stationed at Nellis AFB'. The phrase 'on station' is often used instead of loiter. It would of course refer to the time one was able to remain at an assigned location.

Yeah I understand the meaning just not the source. Since technically when a recon aircraft is "on station", it's quite literally not where it's stationed, just seemed bizarre. Thought there was an interesting explanation to it, like why 'squawk' code is why it is.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-20 18:38:22 and read 24073 times.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 188):

RFields in particular has, more than once, given quite a detailed account of the actions of the Malaysians and Vietnamese after the flight lost contact. For quite some time after that there was no reason at all to notify Australia.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-20 18:43:03 and read 23810 times.

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 191):
took them 13 days to go through his call logs?

Should we be surprised? I wouldn't be... Nothing surprises me given the way this event has unfolded. But if he did indeed make the call and it was only discovered now (maybe MAS knew before but held back on releasing the info?) then it does say something about those leading this investigation. The worst thing for MAS would be if one of their staff was involved. I'm sure that would hurt them a lot more than if it was something else, like a problem with the plane or if it was hi-jacked by somebody unknown to them.

We know of some of the Captain's history (eg: his political views and the Anwar trial) but I still find it hard to believe that such an aviation lover, a career Captain, would do this. He loves flying so much he made his simulator and he doesn't even need it because he is where most people dream to be - in the left hand seat on a 777! He still had many years left of doing what he loved (although I believe MH is planing on replacing its 777 fleet so he might need to transition to a different type). Nonetheless, the Captain was basically living his dream doing what he had worked his entire life to achieve, and that is why I find it hard to believe that he would just throw it all away despite any issues he might have had. Then again, most people have a snapping point...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 18:46:55 and read 23461 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 194):
Question: Who's going to pay for it? (the bandwidth)

Dunno. But getting carriers to agree to AHM over SATCOM on international flights is an idea with far less friction than the ridiculous "full downlink of CVR/FDR" idea that person was floating.

It's far more realistic in the short-term, anyway, but it wouldn't save any lives in the case of a deliberate act...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: KIAS
Posted 2014-03-20 18:48:40 and read 23813 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 25):
I do not think they will find anything, mainly because I don't think the pictures show any debris.


Perhaps we should give the professionals more credit, they wouldn't be giving press conferences and deploying expensive SAR units if they didn't think the images were credible.

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 33):
Do you recognize the airport on the screen of the pilots simulator shown in this photo? It looks like Polonia International or maybe Phuket doesn't it?

At first I thought it was Don Muang, the old Bangkok airport. But I agree it's definitely Schiphol in Amsterdam. Looks like runway 24 by the looks of the taxiways. The striping on the farmland adjacent to the airport is the giveaway.

http://i.imgur.com/Y9huYsB.jpg


On this note, here's another picture of a fellow MAS captain visiting Shah and putting in time on his simulator. These guys are aviators, I think this further shows how normal it is.



Quoting Capt747Ret (Reply 128):
He did this for his version of fame and/or revenge that lived in a dark twisted alcove of his mind.

That's a fairly cynical assessment, no? In our country people are innocent until proven guilty, I'm going to hold off on saying a pilot with 18k hours of experience is guilty of mass murder until there is more evidence.

I am reminded of what Pihero wrote in the last thread (Part 39):

Quote:
As for me, I'd certainly stop at accusing a dead pilot of one of the greatest crimes we'd seen in modern times.
That's the minimum respect we need to show, to him, his family, his religion and his country.

Lastly, since I'm still quite interested in the hypoxia angle (considering it's happened before with sudden loss of communication from flight crew, from Payne Stewart's Learjet to several other examples) folks may want to take a look at this video: http://youtu.be/ZpLi67NdD4w

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-20 18:49:49 and read 23818 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 196):
Just another baseless assumption that makes the theory even less likely. Let's investigate the phone call first and see where it leads us, shall we? Seriously, some of these theories keep getting whackier and whackier and have nothing solid backing them up

Just like the theory that there was a fire in the 777 and it flew for another 6.6 hours...  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-20 18:53:28 and read 23400 times.

Quoting KIAS (Reply 202):
Perhaps we should give the professionals more credit, they wouldn't be giving press conferences and deploying expensive SAR units if they didn't think the images were credible.

You unfairly truncated my post, imo.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: B777fan
Posted 2014-03-20 18:54:10 and read 23244 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 198):
Yeah I understand the meaning just not the source

I've always associated it with the very old nautical phrase station-keeping. Say you are patrolling the entrance to a harbor, while doing that task you are said to be station-keeping. This phase goes back a long time - several hundred years - and again it refers to an assigned or fixed location.

You may be 'based' somewhere between 'station-keeping' assignments of eight hours 'on station' and 16 hours off.

best I can do.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-20 18:56:21 and read 23056 times.

Quoting B777fan (Reply 205):
I've always associated it with the very old nautical phrase station-keeping. Say you are patrolling the entrance to a harbor, while doing that task you are said to be station-keeping. This phase goes back a long time - several hundred years - and again it refers to an assigned or fixed location.

You may be 'based' somewhere between 'station-keeping' assignments of eight hours 'on station' and 16 hours off.

best I can do.

Makes sense to me. Lots of overlap with nautical jargon and aviation jargon. Thanks.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: DiscoverCSG
Posted 2014-03-20 18:59:34 and read 22926 times.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 188):
why did Malaysian authorities not sound the alarm after the aircraft went off the scopes for an extended period of time?

Because it was *supposed* to fly off the scopes into Vietnamese airspace.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: KIAS
Posted 2014-03-20 18:59:57 and read 22933 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 204):
You unfairly truncated my post, imo.

Apologies, that wasn't my intent. I may have taken your post the wrong way. In a way, I was reacting for a more general negativism about the search. Thanks for pointing it out!

[Edited 2014-03-20 19:00:59]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-20 19:02:20 and read 22634 times.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 203):
Just like the theory that there was a fire in the 777 and it flew for another 6.6 hours...  

Are you saying the only alternate to your 'calling the other pilot to shadow him and land in Pakistan and Pakistan hasn't made this landing public yet/it was undetected theory' is the plane caught on fire and flew for 6.6 hours?

This speculation is going no where. It is important to bring up points of investigation (like the alleged phone call) but to go further and draw a bunch of assumptions doesn't help.

I could say that the pilot called to make sure the top secret cargo was loaded on the plane and he shadowed the plane to China. I could say he was calling the Russians to make sure they're still gonna secretly pay his family millions and he shadowed a plane to the middle of the sea and killed everyone to distract from Crimea. Both my random theories are just as likely as yours. They just muddy the discussion and add non-informative fluff to the mix

We research things, draw facts, and formulate hard theories using as few assumptions as possible. Assumptions do little good because I merely plugged in different assumptions to the mix and got completely different motives and areas to search... our assets aren't unlimited

[Edited 2014-03-20 19:03:40]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: wjcandee
Posted 2014-03-20 19:05:01 and read 22520 times.

Ugh...all the conspiracy theories. Maybe correct, maybe not. Here's the retort to Megan Kelly tonight:

(1) There's no evidence that the transponder and ACARS weren't turned off together. They could have been, in the time frame from the last ACARS transmission to the expected next ACARS transmission.

(2) Those being turned off could well have been because they were troubleshooting some smoke in the pedestal or otherwise in the cockpit.

(3) The "All right. Good night." doesn't mean that they weren't in the process of troubleshooting something. Why say anything to the guy who is handing you off when the right guy to talk to is the next ATC in the chain. What's interesting to me is not that the kid didn't say anything about an emergency to Malaysian ATC, but rather that he said nothing at all to Hanoi ATC. That should have come promptly upon handoff. That would make me think a possibilty that they were distracted with a rapidly-deteriorating situation in the cockpit and never had a chance to make the next communication. Or they pulled the breaker on the radios as well due to smoke condition.

I would be interested in hearing his other sign-offs in known normal conditions. Voice stress analysis. Etc.

(4) The last ADS-B transmission, shown on FlightRadar24, shows a path of 25 degrees. So it's still going Northeast at the time of the radio transmission a minute earlier. The turn towards the west only comes after that, apparently before the next ACARS transmission was to take place...but we don't really know. This is consistent with the waypoint that they programmed out of caution in the FMS being now selected because the emergency had escalated.

(5) Conceivable that at some point in an emergency, the FMS, too, is switched off, and either heading select made on the autopilot or nothing on the autopilot and the plane floats along, stable platform that it is, until fuel exhaustion. Although I place almost no credence in the FL450 alleged primary radar calculation and other alleged vacillations in altitude, those would be consistent with the stable aircraft just plodding along on its own with no inputs made to change its flight path.

I don't think that this is a more likely scenario than a hijacking or pilot-initated intentional course deviation, but it's as plausible and lines up the actually-known facts as well as anything else. And therefore shouldn't be dismissed.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-20 19:05:50 and read 22511 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 204):
Quoting KIAS (Reply 202):
Perhaps we should give the professionals more credit, they wouldn't be giving press conferences and deploying expensive SAR units if they didn't think the images were credible.

You unfairly truncated my post, imo.

It has not taken me long to realize that plenty of that happens in here  

As mentioned in their press conferences, it could be anything... If the swells were above 10m at times and the debris were floating for almost 2 weeks now, what is the chance that, even if they could float, they would eventually sink? I'm sure debris floating in a calmer area would stay afloat for longer than in an area where they might be subject to a pounding from massive waves for days and days... Like one of the relatives of a Chinese passenger said to the media the other day, I'm hoping the debris there are not from the plane because that would basically seal the fate of everybody on the plane. If the debris are not from the plane then there is still the possibility that the plane was hi-jacked and landed which is one of the only scenarios in which people could still be alive... For the FWF followers on here, FWF tweeted yesterday that his DHS source said that the plane being in the southern arch was BS... If those debris are however from the plane then that would show otherwise and where the BS was coming from... Also, the plane could have went down over 1,000km from the debris area given the currents and how much time has passed...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-20 19:07:11 and read 22371 times.

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 210):
The last ADS-B transmission, shown on FlightRadar24, shows a path of 25 degrees

No, FR24 shows 25 then 28, then 40 as the last three headings.

40 is the last FR24 heading, which matches the normal flight path.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-20 19:13:48 and read 21920 times.

Hi all,
I need to ask a question about the images we see on the news showing the two possible location areas in an arc around the satellite that picked up the transmissions from the engines.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but those drawings only represent the final ping from the engines. i.e. the distance from the satellite at the last ping, and the arc distance away from the starting point is based on fuel load.

If so then the authorities know that the Jet could have flown around in circles for 5 hours then crashed – hence the arcs starting at the approx last know location of the phone. Or it could have flown the maximum distance in a straight line, or anything in between.

It’s also my understanding that the engines sent information to the satellite every 30mins, is that correct?

If the answer is yes, then what was the planes distance to the satellite at each of the 30min transmissions from the engines? This is crucial information. Has this information been released?

Regards,
Mark

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-20 19:17:13 and read 21607 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 209):
Are you saying the only alternate to your 'calling the other pilot to shadow him and land in Pakistan and Pakistan hasn't made this landing public yet/it was undetected theory' is the plane caught on fire and flew for 6.6 hours?

No. I am just saying, to quote your words, that if a slight twist to an already existing theory is underpinned by a "baseless assumption" based on possible new information, then so are most of the other theories, such as the fire theory (I didn't want to list all of the theories underpinned by baseless assumptions, especially the one about the plane flying into outer space)  

If the Captain made a call just before takeoff, it could have been to anybody. And, if the Captain was part of a plot, then the phone call could have been to somebody else involved. That is all.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: my787
Posted 2014-03-20 19:30:51 and read 20618 times.

Quoting KIAS (Reply 202):
Lastly, since I'm still quite interested in the hypoxia angle (considering it's happened before with sudden loss of communication from flight crew, from Payne Stewart's Learjet to several other examples) folks may want to take a look at this video: http://youtu.be/ZpLi67NdD4w

I too think the hypoxia theory is quite plausible. Thing is, once flame out occurs... if plane hits land = ELT signal. If plane hits water = DFR pings. Hard to reconcile.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-20 19:32:44 and read 20345 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 213):
It’s also my understanding that the engines sent information to the satellite every 30mins, is that correct?

No. See rcair1's sanity check for details on the SATCOM pings.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: hh65man
Posted 2014-03-20 19:34:16 and read 20244 times.

@ KIAS,
that was a good video to post. I've been through the High Altitude Chamber before and experienced the same thing. It doesn't take long for it to happen.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-20 19:46:10 and read 19348 times.

Quoting my787 (Reply 217):
Thing is, once flame out occurs... if plane hits land = ELT signal. If plane hits water = DFR pings. Hard to reconcile.

Not hearing the ELT signal or the FDR ping reconciles very nicely with them being at the bottom of the Indian Ocean.

[Edited 2014-03-20 19:46:36]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-20 19:46:21 and read 19306 times.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IqWal_EmBg

Another good hypoxia illustration...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: davidzill
Posted 2014-03-20 19:49:28 and read 19302 times.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=367_1395328940

Interesting and feasible theory, combine that with a fire that was eventually extinguished, and pilots disabled by smoke inhalation. Then the aircraft just kept flying until it ran out of fuel.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-20 19:50:14 and read 19147 times.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 189):
If the Captain did make a call, which has not yet been confirmed, perhaps he knew and contacted a pilot on the flight he intended to shadow to check if it would be on time... Just another 'twist' on this theory... If a pilot was involved and planned to shadow another jet, maybe a pilot of the other jet was involved. Or, maybe he called somebody at his destination to get the green light...

A more likely scenario is that he was been calling a family member or a friend and telling them he'd be back in a couple of days. Pilots, like any kind other traveler, often make calls from the airport.

[Edited 2014-03-20 19:59:12]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: KIAS
Posted 2014-03-20 19:50:36 and read 19047 times.

Was the garbled transmission picked up by another flight after MH370 signed off ruled out as misinformation?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: cat3appr50
Posted 2014-03-20 19:51:49 and read 19091 times.

I've commented from the beginning that IMO MH370, after the transponder, comms., etc. were reported to have been purposely shut off prior to IGARI WP, that the flight was then purposely diverted West, and flew a purposeful flight path to avoid primary radar. This was proven by Malasian military radar and the acars ping handshake data, and then flew a flight path from IGARI to VAMPI to GIVAL and then IGREX.

After IGREX I still maintain that the likely flight path (to continue to avoid primary radar surveillance) was direct to the Maldives Islands area, where there are at least 2 airports with runways that can handle a B777-200.

Many have asserted that MH 370, loaded with fuel for a 5.5-5.75 hour flight to Beijing and likely carrying 45-60 minutes reserve fuel wouldn't have had the fuel to make it to the Maldives. That is not accurate by total NM flight distance from WMKK to the Maldives following the waypoints reported, normal TAS, the fact that the winds aloft were relatively low, etc. MH370 could have easily made it to the Maldives area.

Many individuals/locals in Maldives reported a large aircraft flying an unusual low altitude at the approximate time that MH370 could have made it there, but these accounts have been discounted by the media commentators with the excuse that local observers most often report incorrect observations. I don't buy the media's assertions.

I commented that this flight would likely not have flown North due to primary military radar coverage in the entire North corridor (India, Pakistan, US Afghanistan, China, Viet Nam, etc.) although many media commentators were pushing the went-North scenario which IMO also defied logic.

The media commentators then speculated that MH370 then flew to match a reported satellite arc point S of Australia. I didn't buy that either, as USA Naval Base Diego Garcia stands right in the middle of the Indian Ocean with enormous military radar, etc. capability and range, with absolute certainty of fighter interception with a plane (object) picked up on primary radar and not painting a transponder signature in that area.

So, I still maintain that MH370 likely did fly to the Maldives area and that the reports by locals of seeing that aircraft were likely accurate . Whether the currently reported satellite data showing suspected debris is MH370, IMO is a 50/50 chance, and if it is, it is likely the result of oceanic movement to the South from a potential crash (for some reason) location South or East of the Maldives area yet out of range of Diego Garcia...IF MH370 really did crash.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-20 19:51:57 and read 19240 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 163):
This plane was built 11 years ago, well before flash memory became cheap. Older recorders did not even use flash memory because, as you say, it was insanely expensive. They used magnetic tape. And magnetic tape might well be quite cheap still. My point is that making recorders did not suddenly become much cheaper because flash memory has become cheaper because they were using an entirely different technology.

Probably isn't feasible (due to the impact/temp/etc...) requirements but LTO-6 (Linear Tape-Open) data tapes can store 2.5 Terabytes of data (You could probably just keep recording for quite some time). (The drive is a few thousand dollars though and I highly doubt LTO is meant to operate in an airplane even in normal conditions)

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 201):
Dunno. But getting carriers to agree to AHM over SATCOM on international flights is an idea with far less friction than the ridiculous "full downlink of CVR/FDR" idea that person was floating.

It's far more realistic in the short-term, anyway, but it wouldn't save any lives in the case of a deliberate act...

Which is why the ELT mod of mine you mentioned would help in all those cases and with 24+ hours of battery life it would work in basically every case intentional or not. Adding capacity to the 406 network isn't too difficult (They can piggy back off LEO, MEO, GEO sats) either and with a little bit of thinking you can cut down the unnecessary automatic test messages by a order of magnitude to only detect unusual planes which are not going to be every plane in flight.

Mandating ACARS for safety doesn't make sense if it can be so easily turned off or disabled and it doesn't have independent power and costs money to use.

Quoting my787 (Reply 217):
I too think the hypoxia theory is quite plausible. Thing is, once flame out occurs... if plane hits land = ELT signal. If plane hits water = DFR pings. Hard to reconcile.

The plane hitting land/water doesn't mean the ELT will work (Especially for a commercial jet airliner). And the plane hitting water the ULB activation is not detectable unless your basically on top of it with sonar (no sat monitoring).

Edit: the other problem with ACARS for tracking is someone needs to be watching for unusual data while an ELT in special test mode would be far more obvious and a push type emergency rather than requiring someone to be looking at some maintenance data.

[Edited 2014-03-20 19:53:48]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-20 19:57:16 and read 18793 times.

Quoting cat3appr50 (Reply 226):
Many individuals/locals in Maldives reported a large aircraft flying an unusual low altitude at the approximate time that MH370 could have made it there, but these accounts have been discounted by the media commentators with the excuse that local observers most often report incorrect observations. I don't buy the media's assertions.

Except it wasn't just the media the local government confirmed military, civil primary radar did not see the plane.

http://www.businessinsider.my/maldiv...-370-in-its-airspace/#.Uyuqd_ldXCY

Edit: Also with all the low flying air taxi services their ATC radar is very likely capable of seeing a 777 flying in the same space as all the local flights. Their military radar would be able to see the plane approaching the islands very easily as there is no ground shadow or nap of the earth to speak of on the open ocean (unless your flying on the water...). Add onto that that cellphone coverage is almost complete across the entire island so a phone on the plane should have easily been able to register at that height the witnesses claim.

[Edited 2014-03-20 19:59:48]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: B777fan
Posted 2014-03-20 19:59:14 and read 18594 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 213):
Correct me if I’m wrong, but those drawings only represent the final ping from the engines

Not bad but not quite right. Yes the last ping could have taken place anywhere on those two arcs.

rcair1 has been publishing the collected info and it would fill you in on this topic. Just some highlights below.

No other ping data has been published but pings were sent every hour. The aircraft could have flown up to an hour after the last ping either away from or along those arcs. It is thought, but unconfirmed, that the other pings produced similar arcs but we are in the dark about them.

The pings are also not specifically engine related. They are more like network heartbeat signals just to say to the plane, are you still there? Other data could have been sent over this comm link if the airline wanted to use it.

ACARS was supposed to communicate every half hour and it did until it was turned off. It could and would normally use the SATCOM connection.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-20 20:04:57 and read 18094 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 224):
A more likely scenario is that he was been calling a family member or a friend and telling them he'd be back in a couple of days. Pilots, like any kind other traveler, make calls before leaving all the time.

Of course it is more likely. But that does not rule out calling anybody else... And if it was the regular call to family, why don't we know that yet and why has it taken them almost two weeks to learn that the Captain possibly made a call? I'm sure his family would have told MAS by now if they received a call. It's 2014 and Malaysia is not that lacking in the technology required to gain access to simple mobile phone call logs... That is, of course, if the story is true...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 7BOEING7
Posted 2014-03-20 20:05:23 and read 18159 times.

Quoting cat3appr50 (Reply 226):
The media commentators then speculated that MH370 then flew to match a reported satellite arc point S of Australia. I didn't buy that either, as USA Naval Base Diego Garcia stands right in the middle of the Indian Ocean with enormous military radar, etc. capability and range, with absolute certainty of fighter interception with a plane (object) picked up on primary radar and not painting a transponder signature in that area.

First, I don't think we have any fighters at Diego Garcia. Second, if MH370 went due south from the last radar contact it would be right where it is now, at the bottom of the ocean 1500 miles + from any land mass including DG. The closest it would have gotten to DG is at least 1500 miles and we don't have any radar that can see that far on DG and they don't have any tankers to get the fighters to the radar contact that isn't flying in their direction.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-20 20:05:36 and read 18201 times.

Quoting cat3appr50 (Reply 226):
Many individuals/locals in Maldives reported a large aircraft flying an unusual low altitude at the approximate time that MH370 could have made it there, but these accounts have been discounted by the media commentators with the excuse that local observers most often report incorrect observations. I don't buy the media's assertions.

The media would love the Maldivians to be right. Makes a great story. Eye witnesses being notoriously unreliable isn't something the media has made up. Ask any accident investigator and you'll get the same answer. Heck, ask any police detective.

The fact that there is no search effort based on the eyewitness accounts tells us the authorities don't find it credible. Add that with the satellite ping arcs going nowhere near the Maldives...

Quoting cat3appr50 (Reply 226):
After IGREX I still maintain that the likely flight path (to continue to avoid primary radar surveillance) was direct to the Maldives Islands area, where there are at least 2 airports with runways that can handle a B777-200.

You could probably land a 777, but perhaps not take off again, on any of the dozen Maldivian airports, even the tiny ones. Three problems with that theory though. What would be the motive? How would they expect to not be seen by anyone? What would be the plan once they've landed?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2014-03-20 20:08:07 and read 18161 times.

I'm just listening to ABC News Radio (sorry no link, but I'm sure there is one out there) and apparently Tony Abbott, the Australian Prime Minister, personally spoke to the Chinese President last night to brief him on the AMSA Investigation. What I found significant is that President Xi apparently said that he was "devastated" to hear the news.

Again, I think this suggests that Australia and the United States have pretty concrete intelligence, that they briefed PRC on, but don't want to go public until they have confirmed it. I doubt that one would be "devastated" over a blurry photo that may or may not be related.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: rj777
Posted 2014-03-20 20:13:55 and read 17930 times.

I'm sorry. but this general on Fox News that's saying that he's got sources saying that the plane landed in Pakistan is coming across to me as a little bit of a nutjob. If any of the family members heard him say these things, they'd be throwing the water bottles at HIM!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: bcworld
Posted 2014-03-20 20:14:38 and read 17562 times.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 231):
Of course it is more likely. But that does not rule out calling anybody else... And if it was the regular call to family, why don't we know that yet and why has it taken them almost two weeks to learn that the Captain possibly made a call? I'm sure his family would have told MAS by now if they received a call. It's 2014 and Malaysia is not that lacking in the technology required to gain access to simple mobile phone call logs... That is, of course, if the story is true...

How do you know it has taken them 2 weeks? For all you know, and it is indeed likely, the crew's phone records have been studied long before now.

This is one of the problems here. People continue to assume that as soon as THEY learn something new that it has only just become known to investigators / MH / Malaysian authorities. The assumption seems to be that as soon as they have a piece of information it must be immediately published so everyone can speculate about it. Why? The information is of no use to anyone except those whose job it is to investigate all this.

So if you must speculate that he was calling an accomplice pilot in another aircraft then don't stop there...list all the other co-conspirators it might've been!

[Edited 2014-03-20 20:15:27]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-20 20:15:50 and read 17571 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 234):

Could be devastated that they know the plane crashed.

Could be devastated to hear that they still can't find the plane.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-20 20:15:53 and read 17500 times.

Quoting cat3appr50 (Reply 226):
Many individuals/locals in Maldives reported a large aircraft flying an unusual low altitude at the approximate time that MH370 could have made it there, but these accounts have been discounted by the media commentators with the excuse that local observers most often report incorrect observations. I don't buy the media's assertions.

Who cares what the media says or thinks? The investigators aren't looking where the media is telling them to. If there was any weight to the Maldives sighting, the investigators would be diverting assets there whether the media calls the eyewitnesses silly or if they report on the sighting 24/7

Quoting cat3appr50 (Reply 226):
So, I still maintain that MH370 likely did fly to the Maldives area and that the reports by locals of seeing that aircraft were likely accurate .

No offense, but a random guy on the internet versus professionals from many countries... gonna have to jump on the latter's bandwagon

Quoting davidzill (Reply 223):
and pilots disabled by smoke inhalation.

The problem I have with most of these smoke or hypoxia theories is that it's sooooo easy and simple to put on the full face mask with oxygen. We've had incidents in the past but it's still extremely unlikely and I have a hard time swallowing the course that the plane flew. Being confused and hypoxic is one thing, entering a bunch of random points to no where is another

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-20 20:22:01 and read 17090 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 234):
I doubt that one would be "devastated" over a blurry photo that may or may not be related.

But likely would be "devastated" over a high quality image that is related and that we haven't seen. (Or the Australian PM's assurance that such an image exits.)

[Edited 2014-03-20 20:26:05]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: holzmann
Posted 2014-03-20 20:24:02 and read 16989 times.

March 23-25: many world leaders will attend the Nuclear Industry Summit.

Coincidence the MH370 pilot was interested in AMS?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-20 20:25:10 and read 16753 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 239):
The problem I have with most of these smoke or hypoxia theories is that it's sooooo easy and simple to put on the full face mask with oxygen

What if one pilot was out of the cockpit chatting to some passengers, and the fire/smoke was originating near the oxygen equipment itself, like the Egyptair 777 cockpit fire. What if the pilot did not get oxygen flow, or had to leave his seat, and there was sudden decompression. What if he struggled with the computer, then passed out. The pilot or copilot could not return to the cockpit, because the door was locked. I know these are wild theories but perhaps the right time for one pilot to stretch his legs and say hello to some first class passengers was then.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-20 20:26:34 and read 16600 times.

Quoting rj777 (Reply 236):

Is he still sticking to that scenario? Talk about stubborn.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 11Bravo
Posted 2014-03-20 20:27:11 and read 16699 times.

Quoting cat3appr50 (Reply 226):
MH370 could have easily made it to the Maldives area.

If you accept that conclusion, and I agree it's maybe possible for the aircraft to get all the way to the Maldives, then you are faced with a choice. Either the plane went to the Maldives, OR the ACARS pings are accurate. Both of those things cannot be true. It's one or the other.

Personally, I choose to believe the ACARS ping data rather than the "Maldives eye-witness" statments. I don't think I'm alone in that conclusion.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: cbrboy
Posted 2014-03-20 20:28:14 and read 16714 times.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 234):
What I found significant is that President Xi apparently said that he was "devastated" to hear the news.

    

Quote:
Again, I think this suggests that Australia and the United States have pretty concrete intelligence, that they briefed PRC on, but don't want to go public until they have confirmed it. I doubt that one would be "devastated" over a blurry photo that may or may not be related.

A good assessment. The Australian PM would not have gone public in the way he did unless the military & intelligence community were confident that MH370 had ended up in the Southern Indian Ocean. You can bet that Australia is sharing intelligence on this with the US and with New Zealand.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-20 20:29:07 and read 16629 times.

If anyone out there knows of a psychology student looking for a subject for a PhD thesis please direct them to this thread.


Quoting jelliesR (Reply 243):
like the Egyptair 777 cockpit fire

If Egyptair was airborne when that fire broke out it would have flown about 10 or 15 minutes, not 6+ hours.

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:11:57 by SA7700]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: SeeTheWorld
Posted 2014-03-20 20:32:29 and read 16333 times.

Quoting cbrboy (Reply 247):
A good assessment. The Australian PM would not have gone public in the way he did unless the military & intelligence community were confident that MH370 had ended up in the Southern Indian Ocean. You can bet that Australia is sharing intelligence on this with the US and with New Zealand.

Exactly right ... it's the Prime Minister of Australia for goodness sake ...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-20 20:33:55 and read 16289 times.

Quoting bcworld (Reply 237):
How do you know it has taken them 2 weeks? For all you know, and it is indeed likely, the crew's phone records have been studied long before now.

This is one of the problems here. People continue to assume that as soon as THEY learn something new that it has only just become known to investigators / MH / Malaysian authorities. The assumption seems to be that as soon as they have a piece of information it must be immediately published so everyone can speculate about it. Why? The information is of no use to anyone except those whose job it is to investigate all this.

So if you must speculate that he was calling an accomplice pilot in another aircraft then don't stop there...list all the other co-conspirators it might've been!

Why wait so long for such info to come out? If somebody knew that info earlier I would have thought it would have been released by the media or whoever about the same time that other info about the crew was discovered which was, let's say, about a week ago...

Quoting hivue (Reply 241):
Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 234):
I doubt that one would be "devastated" over a blurry photo that may or may not be related.

But likely would be "devastated" over a high quality image that is related and that we haven't seen.

They would be devastated "IF" the blurry photo was indeed wreckage of MH370 because it would mean that it confirms that the plane crashed and most probably everybody on MH370 is dead.

[Edited 2014-03-20 20:37:08]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: trex8
Posted 2014-03-20 20:34:45 and read 16290 times.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 232):
First, I don't think we have any fighters at Diego Garcia.

Not any that are supposed to be planning on intercepting anything while there anyway. Maybe when the next war happens there will be some on alert!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-20 20:39:13 and read 16039 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 249):
If Egyptair was airborne when that fire broke out it would have flown about 10 or 15 minutes, not 6+ hours.

Do you know how an electrical fire behaves at high altitude if it breaches the hull? perhaps explosive decompression or the jet stream blows it out or stifles it. I've no idea. Do you?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-20 20:42:11 and read 15870 times.

Quoting holzmann (Reply 242):
March 23-25: many world leaders will attend the Nuclear Industry Summit.

Coincidence the MH370 pilot was interested in AMS?

And that it was a KLM flight to AMS from SIN that could have been in the area in which MH370 might have been that led to the shadow theory... Maybe it landed somewhere under the KLM836 flight path so when it takes off at a later date to fly to AMS it will just shadow KLM836 again... As it arrives at about 0740 I would guess that most of the flight would be in the dark...  

[Edited 2014-03-20 20:46:26]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: bcworld
Posted 2014-03-20 20:45:43 and read 15565 times.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 251):
Why wait so long for such info to come out? If somebody knew that info earlier I would have thought it would have been released by the media or whoever about the same time that other info about the crew was discovered which was, let's say, about a week ago...

Perhaps this is part of your problem, if you believe it is the role of the media to release this information.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-20 20:53:42 and read 15024 times.

Quoting bcworld (Reply 255):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 251):
Why wait so long for such info to come out? If somebody knew that info earlier I would have thought it would have been released by the media or whoever about the same time that other info about the crew was discovered which was, let's say, about a week ago...

Perhaps this is part of your problem, if you believe it is the role of the media to release this information.

I don't have a problem, perhaps you do? I don't believe it is the role of the media to release information - I believe it is the role of relevant authorities to release information. However, in this instance often information has been released by the media or other sources before being released by the authorities. I have seen various media reports about the phone call - I have not yet seen the authorities discuss the phone call (I might have missed it). So, whilst I never said it is the role of the media to release info, it is the media who first seems to release info on MH370 which often leads to the authorities either confirming, denying or correcting later on...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: blueshamu330s
Posted 2014-03-20 21:11:05 and read 13722 times.

Is there anywhere online which gives reliable data on the whereabouts of the US naval fleet?

I have been using Stratfor to follow activity in the Indian Ocean and around Somalia, but wondered if there are any alternatives.

Many thanks

Rgds

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: PacNWjet
Posted 2014-03-20 21:12:04 and read 13668 times.

I'm having a hard time understanding what is being implied by some of the recent posts. If I understand correctly, what some people are saying is that the Australian PM has determined that the debris detected in satellite imagery is from MH 370, he has conveyed this information to U.S. and Chinese officials, but all three governments are waiting until the facts are "confirmed" before they release them to the media. So if there is no "confirmation," then how do the governments in question know the debris is from the missing airplane? Or perhaps I'm just getting hung up on terms people are using such as "confirmation." In any case, it sort of makes government officials sound a bit sadistic that they have concrete evidence that the debris is from MH 370 but are waiting to tell the rest of the world (including the families of the passengers and crew) because, what?, they want to make a big media event of the anticipated "confirmation." Either they have confirmed the debris or not and, if they have, what are they waiting for? Or maybe I'm just confused.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: valleyflyer
Posted 2014-03-20 21:15:48 and read 13533 times.

Quoting cbrboy (Reply 247):

24 meters is longer than most ICBMs. Australia (probably with the help of US satellite imagery) not being able tell the difference between floating junk and aircraft wreckage would be hard to believe.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: SeeTheWorld
Posted 2014-03-20 21:19:14 and read 13195 times.

Quoting PacNWjet (Reply 266):
I'm having a hard time understanding what is being implied by some of the recent posts. If I understand correctly, what some people are saying is that the Australian PM has determined that the debris detected in satellite imagery is from MH 370, he has conveyed this information to U.S. and Chinese officials, but all three governments are waiting until the facts are "confirmed" before they release them to the media. So if there is no "confirmation," then how do the governments in question know the debris is from the missing airplane? Or perhaps I'm just getting hung up on terms people are using such as "confirmation." In any case, it sort of makes government officials sound a bit sadistic that they have concrete evidence that the debris is from MH 370 but are waiting to tell the rest of the world (including the families of the passengers and crew) because, what?, they want to make a big media event of the anticipated "confirmation." Either they have confirmed the debris or not and, if they have, what are they waiting for? Or maybe I'm just confused.

I think you are confused .... It seems to me that the U.S. has combined their expertise with Australia and is allowing them to disseminate the information as the SAR is being coordinated and conducted from Perth.

[Edited 2014-03-20 21:19:57]

[Edited 2014-03-20 21:24:39]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: fiscal
Posted 2014-03-20 21:23:16 and read 12850 times.

Quoting PacNWjet (Reply 266):
some people are saying is that the Australian PM has determined that the debris detected in satellite imagery is from MH 370

That is not the case, the PM was at pains to stress that it was a lead, but that it may not be related to MH370 until it is found. The size was the defining nature that warranted a look.

On the issue of government (any) assistance, it is always a good excuse to hold an exercise, and looking for a downed aircraft is a way to train personnel in a "live" event, if that makes sense, so it some respects it kills two birds, one to assist and one to train.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: MSY-MSP
Posted 2014-03-20 21:24:18 and read 12742 times.

No matter what any of us think in terms of what actually happened I think we can all agree that the following things are strange when taken on their own.

1) The last transmission appears completely normal

2) In very close time period to the handover the aircraft goes dark to secondary radar

3) Aircraft turns west and flies in that general direction.

Logic states that if there was a problem at handover the pilot would not have signed off. They would have alerted ATC that something was looking weird. Especially when it is home country ATC.

If there was a fire or something else the timing seems completely odd. Even if they had a hint of a problem at that time they wouldn't have signed off. Given it appears that it was at most 2 minute between signoff and the transponder going dark I cannot imagine a situation where you would turn off the transponder that quickly from a normal flight situation. (short of fire/smoke coming directly up from the transponder controls itself) But that doesn't account for the lack of ACARS. If I recall correctly ACARS can be deactivated via the FMC, but turning off the FMC in and of itself doesn't disable ACARS. So the reporting would have to be turned off via the FMC, but if there was a fire, the FMC would be kill all together. This would kill the autopilot as well if memory serves right. (or at least the ability to fly between waypoints).

This is where things don't add up for a mechanical failure.

Too many things have to happen at a very specific point in time for this to work.

Oh and to the guy who says the front tire could have caught fire. there is no brakes on the front gear of the 777 and if the tires had gotten too hot the pilot would have noticed it at takeoff as they would have to have been sideways. underinflated nose gear would not have burned unless completely flat and someone would have noticed that.

Everything points to someone doing something. Every mechanical theory falls apart once you add the timeline into it.

Ghosts we are chasing.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: RyanairGuru
Posted 2014-03-20 21:33:28 and read 12332 times.

I don't want to sound all rah-rah Australia, but if this IS the wreckage then IMHO you can thank whichever deity you believe in that it was found within Australian jurisdiction. I mean absolutely no disrespect to our northern neighbours when I say that our own resources, coupled with our incredibly close security relationship with the USA, means that Australia is probably best able to deal with this situation.

Quoting SeeTheWorld (Reply 268):

I appreciate that this was an innocent mistake, but for the record theSAR mission is being coordinated from Canberra (where AMSA, the Department of Defence, the Australian Defence Force ... not to mention ASIO etc have the majority of their resources)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40
Username: SA7700
Posted 2014-03-20 21:34:23 and read 12904 times.

Due to length this thread will be locked for further contributions. All posts added after the thread lock will be removed for housekeeping purposes only. Please feel free to continue the discussion in part 41 which is available here:

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41 (by SA7700 Mar 20 2014 in Civil Aviation)


Thanks and regards,

SA7700


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