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Topic: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: SA7700
Posted 2014-03-20 21:26:25 and read 49087 times.

Due to length part 40 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 41:

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 1 (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 15 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16 (by SA7700 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 17 (by 777ER Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 18 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 19 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 20 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 21 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 22 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 23 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 28 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 32 (by ManuCH Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 33 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34 (by SA7700 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35 (by SA7700 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 36 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37 (by SA7700 Mar 19 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 38 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 19 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39 (by SA7700 Mar 20 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40 (by SA7700 Mar 20 2014 in Civil Aviation)


**********************************************************************************************

**** ADDITIONAL NEWS REPORTS ****

MH370: search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane extended to southern Indian Ocean

Najib's full press statement on MH370

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: What we know so far

MISSING MH370: Timeline

Flight MH370: Police focus on pilots as search for airliner goes on - live updates

Flight MH370: New timeline casts doubt on pilot deception theory

MISSING MH370: ACARS cannot be disabled

MISSING MH370: Search for missing aircraft above politics: Hishamuddin


***********************************************************************************************


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Enjoy the forums!

Regards and thanks for your co-operation,

SA7700

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: blueshamu330s
Posted 2014-03-20 21:33:17 and read 49114 times.

Is there anywhere online which gives reliable data on the whereabouts of the US naval fleet?

I have been using Stratfor to follow activity in the Indian Ocean to identify any movements connected to the SAR mission, but wondered if there are any alternatives.

Many thanks

Rgds

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-20 21:37:53 and read 49071 times.

Quoting B777fan (Reply 229):
Quoting GZed (Reply 213):Correct me if I'm wrong, but those drawings only represent the final ping from the engines.
Not bad but not quite right. Yes the last ping could have taken place anywhere on those two arcs. rcair1 has been publishing the collected info...


Thank you. I've read through rcair1's latest sanity check, so I'm up to speed on the facts.

SATCOM only received a ping once per hour after ACARS was turned off. That means that there were 7 pings received by the SATCOM system (hourly from 2:11am to 8:11am). Each of these pings will tell us the distance from the satellite at that moment, and its crucial information.

I believe that the arcs or "corridors" that we see in the media have been drawn based on the last ping only, because if all 7 pings show basically the same distance then this suggests that plane flew in a perfect gentle turn along that red line, or that it flew in a tight circle for 7 hours, or a combination of the two. This doesn't sound likely so I believe we are being given one ping distance. Either the first one or the last one.

Why haven't they released these 7 ping distances? This the most important information available as to the planes whereabouts.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-20 21:43:10 and read 48856 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 2):

I believe that the arcs or "corridors" that we see in the media have been drawn based on the last ping only, because if all 7 pings show basically the same distance then this suggests that plane flew in a perfect gentle turn along that red line, or that it flew in a tight circle for 7 hours, or a combination of the two. This doesn't sound likely so I believe we are being given one ping distance. Either the first one or the last one.

Why haven't they released these 7 ping distances? This the most important information available as to the planes whereabouts.

Why do they need to release it that would just cause more confusion than already exists...

The plane started out at the last radar contact as the sat pings showed and as time went on it went towards the last ping. With the known primary radar data the initial ping is basically exactly known as it is using secondary data. But every ping towards the last is going to just draw two huge wedges which I like to call a cake slice which isn't going to help at all as they tell you nothing about the flight path. The last ping locations include the first and all in between coupled with the known fuel quantities and performance parameters of the plane. The size of the last ping area covers every possible flight path from the start to the end.

Releasing a picture with two huge wedges is going to make people think that the plane could be somewhere inside the wedge when that is not true and only the last ping is relevant to the search.

Edit: Also if your subscribing to some crazy theories if the plane crossed into POR or AOR-E sat coverage it would have been seen as well.

[Edited 2014-03-20 21:44:26]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: 7BOEING7
Posted 2014-03-20 21:49:14 and read 48652 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 2):
Why haven't they released these 7 ping distances? This the most important information available as to the planes whereabouts.

The only ping that matters is the last PING, we may care where the plane might have been in the interim but it is of no help in finding the wreckage -- it may help in determining what went on during the flight but that is for later, after we find the plane and the black boxes.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: WingedMigrator
Posted 2014-03-20 21:55:36 and read 48383 times.

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 271):
Given it appears that it was at most 2 minute between signoff and the transponder going dark I cannot imagine a situation where you would turn off the transponder that quickly from a normal flight situation.

This line of thinking is too cockpit-centric. There are avionics boxes and wiring harnesses running all over the aircraft, and the root cause of the transponder going dark may not necessarily be found in the cockpit. It's a complex system, and it may fail in non-obvious ways. Besides, 2 minutes is a long time for an oxygen-accelerated fire to develop, such as was observed in the Cairo 777 fire.

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 271):
This would kill the autopilot as well if memory serves right. (or at least the ability to fly between waypoints).

It may still be possible for a 777 to fly itself for hours with neither autopilot nor pilot.

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 271):
Every mechanical theory falls apart once you add the timeline into it.

I'm not sure we can be that categorical just yet. For this very reason, I think search and recovery of the wreckage will be an intense multi-year effort of the same magnitude as AF 447.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: 65mustang
Posted 2014-03-20 21:56:49 and read 48289 times.

I think FWFs source is a retired general who is making a lot of tv appearances.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-20 22:04:11 and read 47979 times.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 4):
The only ping that matters is the last PING, we may care where the plane might have been in the interim but it is of no help in finding the wreckage

I tend to agree, but not fully. While I would love to see the data from the previous pings - It is the last ping that defines the last recorded position of the a/c. However, it is possible the previous ping may lend credence to a particular path or route - It is possible the NTSB did something like that to tell the Australians where to focus - but it could be other factors such as elimination of radar coverage areas.

I suspect that data will be in a final report if we ever get one - but right now the focus is on the place where the a/c was last - and that is defined by the last ping.

-rcair1

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: rj777
Posted 2014-03-20 22:05:28 and read 47975 times.

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 6):
I think FWFs source is a retired general who is making a lot of tv appearances

As I was saying toward the end of the last part, he believes the plane LANDED in Pakistan, and he won't say who hus sources are because something about the witness protection program. I seriously doubt this guy's credibility.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-20 22:05:40 and read 47948 times.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 5):
It may still be possible for a 777 to fly itself for hours with neither autopilot nor pilot.

How? I don't think the auto trim? and auto stability? can actually fly the plane.

What about fuel imbalance? Does it take care of that automatically?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: SA7700
Posted 2014-03-20 22:07:42 and read 47920 times.

Good morning ladies and gents,

There are two additional points that the moderators would like to bring to your attention please.

*** Some members may not be aware of the fact that all members have an edit window of 60 minutes, from the time you first make a post in which to add or remove any additional comments or information into/from the post. Please make use of this feature made available to you, for your own convenience, instead of posting one post after another.

*** Also keep in mind that this is a discussion forum and not a chat room. If you would like to chat about this incident, kindly make use of the "Live Chat" option, which is available in the "forum drop-down menu". Messages of agreement such as "ME TOO", "I AGREE WITH X", ”YES” OR ”NO” have been found to waste time and space and are therefore to be avoided. A message consisting of only one or two lines of text is probably not worth posting. Do not make posts that contain only a smiley face, check mark, etc. Make sure the content of your post is relevant to the topic.


Thanks for your time and co-operation,

SA7700

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-20 22:16:13 and read 47423 times.

I just read in an online manual at Smartcockpit, that turning off the IFE also turns off the surveillance cameras, including the cockpit entry camera system.

Just wondering about that in relation to a hijacker turning off the IFE to prevent the pax from seeing the moving map display.

Seems like they'd want those cameras working.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-20 22:18:47 and read 47347 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 3):
The last ping locations include the first and all in between coupled with the known fuel quantities and performance parameters of the plane.

That's completely untrue and makes me think you don't understand what the SATCOM ping tells us. Each ping simply tells us a distance between the plane and the satellite.

If the plane flew a straight line from the last primary radar contact to its final resting place then each ping will show a different distance to the satellite. In fact the pings could easy prove or disprove the fact that it flew in a straight line, because these distances along a straight line are easy to calculate.

If the distances at each hourly ping do not match the "straight line" theory then we know the aircraft made addition course changes, and we would know that it turned towards the satellite or away from it. Additionally we would know how significant the course change was based on the amount of deviation away or towards, since the last ping.

Any significant course change reduces the maximum final distance away from the point of origin, so this is very important information.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-20 22:25:22 and read 47120 times.

I just watched a short interview of the Senior VP (Chris Mclaughlin) from Inmarsat. He was knowledgeable, informative and very careful to talk only about what he knew. The interviewer kept trying to get him to comment on various things he would not know about - to try to get some 'soundbyte' He handled it very well - sticking to the facts he knew and deflecting ones where he would not know (Could systems on the Boeing fail in a way that would cause....? - "I'm not an expert on those systems so I really cannot say)

He was very clear and quite good - gave you the sense of a company that was really doing the right thing.

He did identify the Inmarsat box as a "Classic Aero" set - which is consistent with the Inmarsat -3 network, not the more advanced and newer -4 network reported as being ordered on newer MH Boeing 737's.

He also said the 'network polls the aircraft' - so it sounds like the network initiates the communication and the aircraft responds. I believe this type of communication is most supportive of a 'time of flight' type distance measurement - but to be very clear - he did not discuss the technical details of how they determined the loci of possible locations.
It was clear, however, that this was something the had to 'noodle' on a develop - not something they had in the can. It took 2-3 days for them to figure it out.

In all - he was very credible and I do not believe this was somebody 'hiding' something - like "we know more about where the aircraft is than we are saying."

-rcair1

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-20 22:30:59 and read 46815 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 7):
Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 4):The only ping that matters is the last PING, we may care where the plane might have been in the interim but it is of no help in finding the wreckage
I tend to agree, but not fully. While I would love to see the data from the previous pings - It is the last ping that defines the last recorded position of the a/c. However, it is possible the previous ping may lend credence to a particular path or route - It is possible the NTSB did something like that to tell the Australians where to focus - but it could be other factors such as elimination of radar coverage areas.

I suspect that data will be in a final report if we ever get one - but right now the focus is on the place where the a/c was last - and that is defined by the last ping.

-rcair1

...but the last ping in no way tells you location of the aircraft - Only the distance from the satellite. The plane literally could be anywhere along those published arc's.

The earlier ping distances are the only thing we have to help narrow down the possible location.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-20 22:31:18 and read 46837 times.

Quoting blueshamu330s (Reply 1):
Is there anywhere online which gives reliable data on the whereabouts of the US naval fleet?

That is pretty hush hush. I doubt if that information is out on the web. You can have a general idea of which ships are out on deployment but the actual locations of them isn't thrown out there

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 6):
I think FWFs source is a retired general who is making a lot of tv appearances.

I get the impression it's one pompous loudmouth saying things to another pompous loudmouth and out comes his tweets. I'm sure the "insider" has been blabbing to the media as well, which is why FWF says things earlier than the media picks up with them, but excuse me if I'm skeptical of "insider sources." If anything, a.net has taught me to doubt rumors from these unnamed entities because they're often full of it

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: seb146
Posted 2014-03-20 22:48:06 and read 45877 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 2):
Why haven't they released these 7 ping distances? This the most important information available as to the planes whereabouts.

If the last ping was 15,000 miles distance from the satellite, that is a lot of ground to cover! Not only that, but it *MAY* have gone farther than that.

My question is on radar. Wouldn't some military somewhere had some question about an unknown blip? I get that military installations don't want to reveal how much information they can gather. But, if a 777 flew over India and far western China, don't you think they would have scrambled a few fighters to figure out what the heck was going on? Even off Australia, that is not a normal flight path, is it? Wouldn't someone in the Australian military have noticed an unidentified "blip" on their screen and said something? I know the military can't say much, so my questions are worthless, but I still have to ask.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: flyingturtle
Posted 2014-03-20 22:50:15 and read 45805 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 9):
How? I don't think the auto trim? and auto stability? can actually fly the plane.

Yes, every plane will happily fly itself without pilot or autopilot. Also without trim...

Plane gets faster --> more lift --> aircraft gains altitude, it also slows down

Plane gets slower --> less lift --> aircraft descends, it also gets faster

This is called a phugoid cycle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phugoid

It has happened in total loss of the controls, and so the pilots had to use the engines to control speed, and by extension, vertical speed in order to land. Sink rate too high? Apply more thrust!

The landing will be nerve-wrecking, though.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 9):
What about fuel imbalance? Does it take care of that automatically?

This is also taken care of. You don't have controlled flight anymore, but yes - you won't crash in the short and medium term.


David

[Edited 2014-03-20 22:52:49]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-20 22:52:06 and read 45666 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 12):
That's completely untrue and makes me think you don't understand what the SATCOM ping tells us. Each ping simply tells us a distance between the plane and the satellite.

Your not reading my statements. I said the last ping includes the first ping with the primary radar data (a point due to the radar data) and the fuel quantity which is obviously not embedded in an inmarsat keep alive message is used to determine the maximum possible locations along the large circle the last ping provides. (it is the exact opposite of completely untrue.)

Quoting GZed (Reply 12):
If the plane flew a straight line from the last primary radar contact to its final resting place then each ping will show a different distance to the satellite. In fact the pings could easy prove or disprove the fact that it flew in a straight line, because these distances along a straight line are easy to calculate.

The pings are not very accurate they do not tell you the flight path. The last ping arc includes the min/max possible flight paths to the area defined by the large circle. There is not enough accuracy to draw a flight path (it will just draw a big rounded wedge there is no other way). It would not prove how direct or indirect a path it took as it must have ended within the final arc for the signal to be recieved there. No matter the route's actual it got to the endpoint somehow. If it did crazy circles and then did a b-line to the minimum point that is possible but it would still be hard to tell exactly what was happening as without primary radar data the estimates are not accurate.

Quoting GZed (Reply 12):
If the distances at each hourly ping do not match the "straight line" theory then we know the aircraft made addition course changes, and we would know that it turned towards the satellite or away from it. Additionally we would know how significant the course change was based on the amount of deviation away or towards, since the last ping.

Any significant course change reduces the maximum final distance away from the point of origin, so this is very important information.

You do not seem to understand what the ping's provide. The last ping makes a definite bound on where the plane could be. If you made a path so insane and non-linear and outside the big fat rounded cake slice there would be no way to reach the known last ping. (You would run out of fuel before you could reach the area defined by the arcs, and that would be a non-real result as we know it did reach the circle defined by the last ping)

The plane must have ended in the large circle if you took an insane route you would run out of jet-a before you reached the circle there is no other way around it. The other pings would only draw a big wedge (Which we could easily) with rounded edges so that it fully defines every path to the end circle. There is a hard limit on how far the plane could deviate off a purely linear path and still end in the final ping area. (The sat ping's resolution is horrible so it would not tell you if the plane turned or not it would just say it was in this huge area or not, and if it did cross the circles back and forth it would have to end up near the slowest/shortest linear path area which is furthest away from the conspiracy theories)

Quoting GZed (Reply 14):
...but the last ping in no way tells you location of the aircraft - Only the distance from the satellite. The plane literally could be anywhere along those published arc's.

The earlier ping distances are the only thing we have to help narrow down the possible location.

It tells you the plane could be here. The early pings won't provide the resolution to be able to easily exclude parts of the arc. The fuel load narrows down the flight path and the linear assumption is a fairly reasonable one in that all your stating is that if the plane didn't fly linearly the short close paths are the most probable areas. (These would end in populated areas with radar coverage)

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:00:17]

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:03:35]

Basically to reach the furthest point it must have traveled in a mostly linear path and for a close point it could have travelled increasingly convoluted paths except that there isn't much resolution to the sat distance measure as the system was never intended to do this type of measurement so it would be difficult to resolve.


[Edited 2014-03-20 23:09:14]

I also watched the inmarsat interview and got this bit out of them (it was inmarsat that built the estimate so they obviously know where each ping is)(Inmarsat (sun/mon) used sat signal from network diagnostics. (Basic sum) arcs by tuesday.)

By assumption which may or may not be correct is that to build the estimate for the last position they used the previous pings to build confidence and refine the final estimate which means they would have already checked to see if it was doing strange and massive non-linear deviations so large that the sat could see that.

Interview is here, http://nation.foxnews.com/2014/03/20...-could-help-find-malaysia-airliner


[Edited 2014-03-20 23:31:27]

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:34:24]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: NotAPilotYet
Posted 2014-03-20 22:53:59 and read 45683 times.

Hi folks - can we stop with the suicide theories now? Please? This is the one place where I have expertise, and this is not that. I've read the last 40 threads, I have learned the language, and I have even shut the effen up when I have a question.

Command suicide, no. Even if you want to take out masses, this isn't way to do it. And the first person that tells me that suicide makes perfect sense, kill me now. Go ahead... make it make sense.

yikes - that came off a little bitchy

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-20 22:56:07 and read 45446 times.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):

Any examples of such lasting for hours? Without humans suppressing the cycle?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Mortyman
Posted 2014-03-20 22:58:22 and read 45350 times.

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 19):
Hi folks - can we stop with the suicide theories now? Please? This is the one place where I have expertise, and this is not that. I've read the last 40 threads, I have learned the language, and I have even shut the effen up when I have a question.

Command suicide, no. Even if you want to take out masses, this isn't way to do it. And the first person that tells me that suicide makes perfect sense, kill me now. Go ahead... make it make sense.

yikes - that came off a little bitchy

It has happen before that pilots have comitted suicide and taking pasengers with them. This has happend more than once too. It's a fact that we can't look away from.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-20 22:58:28 and read 45341 times.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):
Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 9):
How? I don't think the auto trim? and auto stability? can actually fly the plane.

Yes, every plane will happily fly itself without pilot or autopilot. Also without trim...

Plane gets faster --> more lift --> aircraft gains altitude, it also slows down

Plane gets slower --> less lift --> aircraft descends, it also gets faster

This is called a phugoid cycle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phugoid

(Most) planes are designed to be stable in pitch so this would work, but only in pitch.

It would not work for roll in most aircraft. Most planes are not stable in roll once you get past a certain angle. If you put a light plane into a 45 degree bank, it would keep banking until it ended up in a spiral descent.

In swept wing airliners, the designers strike a balance between Dutch Roll and Spiral Divergence. More of one means less of the other and vice versa. Dutch Roll is countered with yaw dampers but Spiral Divergence is not really a worry because it is easily countered by pilot or autopilot inputs. So the plane can diverge. If it couldn't diverge it would be too stable for easy maneuver.

However a 777 has FBW, so the control system would work to keep it in the attitude the pilots or autopilot left it. In a bank, it would keep banking, but it would maintain a constant bank angle which would neither converge nor diverge.

If we assume the last control inputs left the plane straight and level, the control system would keep it stable until the fuel ran out or until it hit something.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 20):

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):

Any examples of such lasting for hours? Without humans suppressing the cycle?

Most aircraft are both statically and dynamically stable in pitch, meaning pitch oscillations will damp out automatically. This is typically demonstrated in the first flying lesson you ever take. The instructor will pull back on the yoke and let go, then sit back and wait while the plane stabilizes.

If the plane is mis-trimmed it will start climbing or descending, but oscillations will still be damped out.

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:00:38]

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:01:22]

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:03:30]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: lucaspithan
Posted 2014-03-20 23:00:15 and read 45267 times.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 16):
My question is on radar. Wouldn't some military somewhere had some question about an unknown blip? I get that military installations don't want to reveal how much information they can gather. But, if a 777 flew over India and far western China, don't you think they would have scrambled a few fighters to figure out what the heck was going on? Even off Australia, that is not a normal flight path, is it? Wouldn't someone in the Australian military have noticed an unidentified "blip" on their screen and said something? I know the military can't say much, so my questions are worthless, but I still have to ask.

This answer lots of things. For me is clear that the plane did not enter the air space of China, India and Pakistan. These countries owns efficient security systems and (especially India and Pakistan) they are in permanent alert due to historical disputes.

I can't imagine a triple seven going in their air space without being noticed unless it was flying very low, what would require a very skillful pilot and a very lucky day for him.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-20 23:03:24 and read 45161 times.

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 19):

Wow, that expert analysis really convinced me  

Just as we have inconclusive evidence to say it was a suicide, I believe we don't have enough evidence to say it wasn't a suicide

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: flyingturtle
Posted 2014-03-20 23:05:40 and read 46057 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 20):
Any examples of such lasting for hours? Without humans suppressing the cycle?

I can't think of an example where this happened for hours, because... pilots want to fly the plane. But phugoid cycles are taught to any student pilots, and with a fix thrust and a decreasing fuel load, this *would* readily go on for hours. Until the fuel runs out.

The Helios flight may be an example, but I'm not sure.

In the Payne Stewart incident, the aircraft climbed in the long term, which is consistent with decreasing fuel weight, switched-off autopilot, and a phugoid cycle.


David

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-20 23:07:00 and read 45793 times.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 25):
But phugoid cycles are taught to any student pilots, and with a fix thrust and a decreasing fuel load, this *would* readily go on for hours. Until the fuel runs out.

Actually the oscillations would tend to damp out given dynamic longitudinal stability. But of course if the cycle is big, say two thousand meters from top to bottom, it would take a long time.

If aircraft did not have dynamic longitudinal stability, the oscillations would tend to increase, and that's bad Feng Shui.

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:07:39]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: AR385
Posted 2014-03-20 23:08:03 and read 47177 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 22):
However a 777 has FBW, so the control system would work to keep it in the attitude the pilots or autopilot left it. In a bank, it would keep banking, but it would maintain a constant bank angle which would neither converge or diverge.

It also has assymetric thrust automatic compensation, so, when it ran out of fuel and if one engine cut earlier than the other, it would have still have kept flying straight and level. On autopilot, that is.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: flyingturtle
Posted 2014-03-20 23:08:26 and read 47085 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 22):

Thank you for giving a much more precise answer!

I didn't know it the oscillations would automatically dampen, but now I thought about it again...


David

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: antskip
Posted 2014-03-20 23:09:25 and read 47306 times.

A fleet of Chinese ships are on their way south to the suspected debris area, including the rescue ships Haixun 01 and 31 and Nanhaijiu 101 and 115. They are around 5 days away. The ice-breaking research vessel Xue Long (Snow Dragon), with her 2 helicopters, has already set sail from Fremantle, only 2 days away. These ships will be a very considerable addition to the present search/rescue force.
http://www.news24.com/World/News/Chi...hips-to-plane-search-area-20140321

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:24:47]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-20 23:09:38 and read 47183 times.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 28):

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 22):

Thank you for giving a much more precise answer!

I didn't know it the oscillations would automatically dampen, but now I thought about it again...

No worries. The EASA ATPL syllabus covers this stuff in mind-numbing detail. Glad it is coming to some sort of use! 

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-20 23:10:35 and read 46991 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 22):

Thanks. I knew that commercial airliners are required to be stable.

But many theories have a bad cockpit fire as the cause of the plane flying off by itself. Presumably that would affect the control systems.

Also, can you answer the question about fuel balancing? Is that done automatically? Or would it become a problem?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-20 23:14:57 and read 46662 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 31):
But many theories have a bad cockpit fire as the cause of the plane flying off by itself. Presumably that would affect the control systems.

The core of the flight control system would probably/hopefully be the last thing to fail on a fly by wire plane as without it you can't really fly the plane. These systems would have high redundancy, power diversity, physical diversity, ... as to be more survivable in a fire or other incident. Unfortunately humans are pretty fragile and if the oxygen system failed CO or just lack of oxygen would kill people pretty quick.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: spacecadet
Posted 2014-03-20 23:15:10 and read 46787 times.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):
Yes, every plane will happily fly itself without pilot or autopilot. Also without trim...
Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):
This is also taken care of. You don't have controlled flight anymore, but yes - you won't crash in the short and medium term.

This is not true. The few times this has actually happened in the history of airliners (total loss of control due to hydraulic problems), the planes flew for less than an hour even with constant manual adjustments using the engines. They certainly did not fly "happily" and without that manual engine input, they would not have flown at all. In all cases, they continuously lost altitude - the phugoid effect is a one step forward, two steps back sort of effect. Ascend 1,000 feet, descend 2,000, that kind of thing.

There's just no possibility that this plane flew around for 7.5 hours completely on its own, with no manual input and no programmed auto-pilot and auto-thrust. It had one or the other. If it didn't, it probably wouldn't have lasted 20 minutes before succumbing fully to the phugoid effect and crashing. Maybe slightly longer if it was at fully level cruise when control was lost.

Edit: I'll just qualify this a *bit* by saying I'm talking about the scenario originally described - no pilot, no auto-trim, no auto-pilot, no auto-thrust, no nothing. Airliners are inherently stable but only when trimmed properly for altitude, thrust and weight. Obviously if you could even just set the trim properly you could probably fly a plane for a good long time with no other controls, and if you could use engine power you could fly it for a while without proper trim, although not indefinitely.

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:27:24]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: nm2582
Posted 2014-03-20 23:17:46 and read 46643 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 22):
However a 777 has FBW, so the control system would work to keep it in the attitude the pilots or autopilot left it. In a bank, it would keep banking, but it would maintain a constant bank angle which would neither converge nor diverge.

I'm going to ask a slightly absurd question so that I can understand what you're trying to communicate. I'm not a pilot - but I understand the theories of flight, and I have hand flown a few "traditional" manual control aircraft - a piper cub and a T6, to be exact.

So lets say you are flying along in a 777, straight and level, all autopilots off. The pilot puts the aircraft into a 30 degree bank. He or she then stands up and walks to the lav, leaving the pointy end empty for 10 minutes.

When he or she returns, is the aircraft still going to be in a 30 degree bank, at the same altitude it was left at?

I had thought that Boeing's FBW implementation was relatively direct - in that it would still act "more or less" like a traditional aircraft; and not an implementation which would hold pitch/bank unless the pilot inputs a change in pitch or bank on the yoke.

Perhaps I have misunderstood the Boeing FBW philosophy/implementation...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: NotAPilotYet
Posted 2014-03-20 23:21:10 and read 46432 times.

Wow, that expert analysis really convinced me

Just as we have inconclusive evidence to say it was a suicide, I believe we don't have enough evidence to say it wasn't a suicide

You're right - please refer to the noob reference above ... can I insert a cat pic instead?


I don't claim to know a damn thing about the event. I do know people (and not the CNN, BBC witch doctors). I did spend a lot of time reading the AF threads... you folks got it in 10 threads. That's why I'm here - you know things that I don't.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: jelliesR
Posted 2014-03-20 23:23:29 and read 46317 times.

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 19):
Hi folks - can we stop with the suicide theories now? Please?

Let me ask a question, if he had flown the plane into the home of the president of Malaysia, would you consider it "suicide"? no. Right?

Now let me ask, what if what he has done will actually cause more indirect political damage than flying the plane into his house could ever do. Or what if he *thought* (I am not saying he is sane) it would do reputational damage.

I've never thought it was as simple as suicide for life insurance, or just can't cope anymore angst, but there are definitely more psychological dimensions. Pleading at a press conference to please leave out politics for the time being is nothing to do with straight suicide.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: 7BOEING7
Posted 2014-03-20 23:25:08 and read 46636 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 9):
How? I don't think the auto trim? and auto stability? can actually fly the plane.

What about fuel imbalance? Does it take care of that automatically?
Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):
Yes, every plane will happily fly itself without pilot or autopilot. Also without trim...

Plane gets faster --> more lift --> aircraft gains altitude, it also slows down

Plane gets slower --> less lift --> aircraft descends, it also gets faster
This is called a phugoid cycle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phugoid


B******T -- The 777 (or most any airplane) will end up in the ground if you take your hands off the yoke no matter how well it's trimmed before you let go. The "phugoid" stuff may work theoretically but not so much in real life. One of the customers doing an acceptance flight would do a roll angle vs time check so I've seen what happens many times. The airplane starts rolling left or right and probably if you let it go you will finally get to a little over 30 degrees and the bank angle protection will kick in and you'll just go around in circles.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: NotAPilotYet
Posted 2014-03-20 23:34:29 and read 45677 times.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 36):

The psychological aspect for political reasons is something I can't dismiss - I don't know Malaysia. But from a suicide sense, it doesn't jibe. What you're proposing is political - mad man slams into a thing for a reason.

Unless we think that a mad man missed his target and flew widely off course, then turned around and aimed for a thing that he missed...

I'm sure Im missing something. I'm happy to go back to calculating hd space...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: YoungMans
Posted 2014-03-20 23:41:03 and read 45379 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 18):
The plane must have landed in the large circle

If the 24 m & 5 m parts now being searched for are in fact off MH370, this question is completely irrelevant.
If they are not, then it may be a different matter.

Could the much-disgussed pings come from anything other than MH370?
In other words, could a good electronics technician set up mobile satellite communications equipment, with the necessary codes copied onto chips, whatever is required. This would then be for use from one location while the aircraft was flying somewhere else altogether.
The pings could then have come from anything ... a car, a parked aircraft or even from a person, provided the mobile equipment had the correct codes and proper transmisson strength.
The 'satellite would think' it is talking to the aircraft, it wouldn't know any different.

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:48:54]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: AR385
Posted 2014-03-20 23:45:30 and read 44982 times.

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 39):
In other words, could a good electronics technician set up appropriate satellite communications equipment, with codes copied onto necessary chips, whatever is necessary. For use from one location while the aircraft was flying somewhere else altogether.
The pings could then have come from anything ... a car, a parked aircraft or even from a person, provided the equipment had the proper codes and correct transmisson strength.
The 'satellite would think' it is talking to the aircraft, it wouldn't know any different.

If this scenario is true. Then you also need to provide at the very least a conjecture of where the missing 777 is. Because if somebody went to the trouble to do all that you are suggesting, was obviously to lead people into believing the airplane crashed. So where do you think it is? and who do you think would have gone to such a huge effort to replicate the pings?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-20 23:46:00 and read 45158 times.

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 19):
Hi folks - can we stop with the suicide theories now? Please? This is the one place where I have expertise, and this is not that. I've read the last 40 threads, I have learned the language, and I have even shut the effen up when I have a question.

There are three main theories:
1. Suicide
2. Hijacking
3. Mechanical failure (or fire etc.)

The suicide theory is by far the simplest available theory. It can neatly explain why the communications were shut down and why the plane apparently flew to the southern Indian Ocean in order to minimize the chances the plane ever to be found.

In the hijacking theories it is very difficult explain why for example ACARS communications were turned off or how there could be a massive multi-government cover-up.

In the mechanical failure (or fire etc.) it is very difficult to explain why there was no distress call (selective fire disabling just radios, transponder and ACARS but leaving the plane flyable is very implausible).

I would like to hear what is your best theory if you discount the suicide theory?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: 65mustang
Posted 2014-03-20 23:46:40 and read 44934 times.

With referencing the map posted by wxmedller in part 38 post 233, does anyone think that the NTSB based the gradual course to the right (as the plane flies) due to the coriolis effect? If so, this would indicate a due south course from the igrex waypoint and never deviating, wouldn't it?

http://stratus.ssec.wisc.edu/courses/gg101/coriolis/coriolis.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: aviators99
Posted 2014-03-20 23:47:51 and read 44928 times.

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 39):
Could the much-disgussed pings come from anything other than MH370?
In other words, could a good electronics technician set up appropriate satellite communications equipment, with codes copied onto necessary chips, whatever is necessary. For use from one location while the aircraft was flying somewhere else altogether.
The pings could then have come from anything ... a car, a parked aircraft or even from a person, provided the equipment had the proper codes and correct transmisson strength.
The 'satellite would think' it is talking to the aircraft, it wouldn't know any different.

In theory, yes! But that would be a new level of criminal mastery that's been heretofore unheard of in all of history, as it would be an incredible amount of work for very very little gain.

Keep in mind that these pings were never meant to be used for distance measuring in the first place. It was a hack that someone figured out after the disappearance.

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:51:10]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: davidzill
Posted 2014-03-20 23:48:48 and read 44737 times.

So what's up with ACARS at this point, what do we know, and how does that pertain to where the investigation and search goes for now and how does it effect plausible theories? Also is there a clear indication that the transponder was manually turned off? Or is there the possibility that a fire in the nose gear well effected the avionics compartment with a loss of systems, so the pilot selected his pre-programmed takeoff alternate diversion airfield on Palau Island? And the fire in the wheel well is what the oil rig worker observed. In the process the fuselage skin was compromised resulting in loss of cabin pressurization, and the pilots who were doing 1000 tasks at once, lost consciousness quickly, whilst turning the heading indicator on the auto pilot mode control panel, and passed out once they where indicating a southern course on the heading indicator.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: flightshadow
Posted 2014-03-20 23:49:45 and read 44885 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 20):
Any examples of such lasting for hours? Without humans suppressing the cycle?

I think that in the case of UA 232, the increasing rate of descent on short final which caused Denny Fitch to increase engine power just prior to landing was caused by the plane's phugoid cycle. That was after all of the turning, circling, and variation in engine thrust.

I'm not exactly sure how that incident might apply to a potential ghost 777, but perhaps there is some connection.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-20 23:50:16 and read 44668 times.

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 39):
Could the much-disgussed pings come from anything other than MH370?
In other words, could a good electronics technician set up appropriate satellite communications equipment, with codes copied onto necessary chips, whatever is necessary. For use from one location while the aircraft was flying somewhere else altogether.
The pings could then have come from anything ... a car, a parked aircraft or even from a person, provided the equipment had the proper codes and correct transmisson strength.
The 'satellite would think' it is talking to the aircraft, it wouldn't know any different.

If you goto that little link in the edits with the interview it is highly improbable that someone spoofed a inmarsat modem.

You would have to fake the modem identification which is unique just as your phone's baseband has unique IDs and various other hard coded numbers which are "very difficult" to change. Then you would have to fake a valid simcard while making a duplicate of an existing one. Your spoof device would have to duplicate both the modem and sim card perfectly to not be noticed and you would somehow have to kick the MH370 modem off the network without it leaving a trace while simultaneously getting onto the network with your spoof device without logging in normally. This would probably require hacking inmarsat's ground stations to pull it off which to say the least it outside the skill of a good electronics tech.

All of this would probably require stealing inmarsat's private keys which sign everything they make and that would be a huge security hole which isn't likely to exist and would open the door to stealing inmarsat services without paying for anything.

It would have been easier to steal the entire modem and simcard out the plane but one could imagine that being not so easy to do without being noticed. Then you would also have to fly or position the modem in the same pattern as we see today or have many spoofed modems.

Alternatively it would be even easier to go in and hack inmarsat's network logs but that too is not exactly easy to do or even possible if well designed.

Edit: Note inmarsat's private keys would not exist on the customer devices so it would require a lot more effort than you seem to be implying.

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:55:15]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-20 23:51:32 and read 44697 times.

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 42):
With referencing the map posted by wxmedller in part 38 post 233, does anyone think that the NTSB based the gradual course to the right (as the plane flies) due to the coriolis effect? If so, this would indicate a due south course from the igrex waypoint and never deviating, wouldn't it?

It might be a partial explanation. However, if it were a pure Coriolis effect the earth rotates 15 degrees (24 x 15 = 360) every hour under the plane, and the effect is not so large in the NTSB track. Apparently the two tracks represent two different speeds, and the Coriolis effect might explain the difference between the tracks (or else it is some uncertainty in the initial conditions etc.).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: NotAPilotYet
Posted 2014-03-21 00:01:20 and read 44114 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 41):
The suicide theory is by far the simplest available theory. It can neatly explain why the communications were shut down and why the plane apparently flew to the southern Indian Ocean in order to minimize the chances the plane ever to be found.

I understand that - and it makes sense from an engineering point. It just doesn't make sense from a psych point. Before I;m skewered here, let me type... or at least think aloud...

To take down a plane, the thing you love, the thing you spent a huge part of your life doing - to do that, what would it take? Tell me. Then tell me how you would hide it. Not the plane - the behavior?

I'm trying to figure this out like you are - I just have a different perspective.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Shmendr
Posted 2014-03-21 00:04:27 and read 44014 times.

A question about landing in Antarctica.

Assuming that MH370 will be found in the south Indian Ocean, it seems to me this will be the closest commercial airline accident, geographically, to the 1979 Air New Zealand 901 crash in Antarctica.

Question is, If MH370 had an additional 2-3hrs of fuel and flown much closer to Antarctica than Australia, would the P-3 / P-8 aircraft be able to land in Antarctica at this part of the year in order to conduct the operation?

Does anyone know where in Antarctica it would most likely have had to land?

thank you for the info in advance.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-21 00:08:41 and read 43708 times.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 4):
The only ping that matters is the last PING, we may care where the plane might have been in the interim but it is of no help in finding the wreckage -- it may help in determining what went on during the flight but that is for later, after we find the plane and the black boxes.
Quoting tomlee (Reply 18):
It would not prove how direct or indirect a path it took as it must have ended within the final arc for the signal to be recieved there.

ALL the pings are important (but yes, the last ping is the most important).

Each ping means a distance from the satellite to the earth's surface... or somewhere near it. From a stationary point in orbit, the pings would produce ring circles. We know where the aircraft was when it disappeared from radar and what time. There will have to be assumptions in target motion analysis such as speed, and that the aircraft went in a straight line between the pings.

Using this method, one can approximate the path(s) of the aircraft under that assumption, and if let's say we use the "piggy back as long as possible" towards the northwest theory, we can then go and look at airways that are suitable for those initial assumptions, then refine it further as you go along. This is of course, by no means precise... but it just goes to show what can be looked into using minimum data. Distance only Target Motion Analysis does exist, this one I just described is the less scientific version. Submarine warfare target/contact tracking merely uses a more advanced version of this and use "bearing only" instead of "distance only". But then distance vs distance is a method usable for triangulation and navigation, and when lacking that, distance progression on an assumed speed time-range constraint can also be used. This is useful when used in conjunction with a blanket search pattern with multiple assets, where you can allocate certain assets to "areas of interest" generated by the target motion analysis while continuing the blanket search.

To say only the last ping is valuable is foolish.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: aviators99
Posted 2014-03-21 00:11:40 and read 43588 times.

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 19):
This is the one place where I have expertise, and this is not that.
Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 48):
To take down a plane, the thing you love, the thing you spent a huge part of your life doing - to do that, what would it take? Tell me. Then tell me how you would hide it. Not the plane - the behavior?

I can't reconcile these two statements. Are you sure you're an expert in suicide?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: YoungMans
Posted 2014-03-21 00:12:29 and read 43393 times.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 40):
If this scenario is true. Then you also need to provide at the very least a conjecture of where the missing 777 is. Because if somebody went to the trouble to do all that you are suggesting, was obviously to lead people into believing the airplane crashed. So where do you think it is?
Quoting aviators99 (Reply 43):
But that would be a new level of criminal mastery that's been heretofore unheard of in all of history, as it would be an incredible amount of work for very very little gain.

The truth is I have no idea where the plane is; so far, no-one else has either.
The closest I come to airliners is when I buy a ticket from the travel agent, hop onto the aircraft and, lucky enough until now, hop off at the other end. And yet, I could think off a lot of scenarios that wouldn't be too outrageous in today's world, something that might have happened to flight MH370.

The comment, "...a new level of criminal mastery that's been heretofore unheard of.." might just just 'hit the nail right on the head' and is as valid as any of the many suggestions that have been put forward already.

In other words, what has happened here, this time, if and when we find out, may be something that has never happened before; there may be no precedents for it whatsoever.

Thank you for all the contributions in these threads, especially those from people who evidently know what they are talking about.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: flood
Posted 2014-03-21 00:13:24 and read 43415 times.

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 38):
I'm sure Im missing something.

Perhaps a misunderstanding. We're placing "suicide" under a rather big umbrella with the key point being that it would involve deliberate pilot action, regardless of motive (personal, political, financial, etc).

It's one scenario of many, but it's a scenario which in my opinion is one of the most difficult to poke a hole through. As such, it doesn't make sense to ignore or avoid discussing the possibility of this scenario just because it involves a pilot. Who knows what his motives may have been.

Personally, I hope that's not the case and none of the crew are involved. When boarding an aircraft, I'm willing to accept the miniscule risk of being blown out of the sky by a bomb or some other terrorist plot. But despite the precedent I would find it much harder to accept some sinister plot originating from the flightdeck and the very people we entrust our lives with.

Quoting rj777 (Reply 8):
As I was saying toward the end of the last part, he believes the plane LANDED in Pakistan, and he won't say who hus sources are because something about the witness protection program. I seriously doubt this guy's credibility.

To say the least. Several threads ago we were ridiculing this article:
Russia "Puzzled" Over Malaysia Airlines "Capture" By US Navy
http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1753.htm

There's a RationalWiki page on the author of above article, which goes on to say his "work is of such quality that even other conspiracy nutters don't think much of it."
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Sorcha_Faal

Look who ends up tweeting a couple of key points:
http://twitter.com/flyingwithfish/status/446609458391973888
http://twitter.com/flyingwithfish/status/446611313801043968

Note that in the second link above he says his source for the info is DHS. Conclude from that what you will  


[Edited 2014-03-21 00:23:30]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 00:16:32 and read 43103 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 50):
Using this method, one can approximate the path(s) of the aircraft under that assumption, and if let's say we use the "piggy back as long as possible" towards the northwest theory, we can then go and look at airways that are suitable for those initial assumptions, then refine it further as you go along. This is of course, by no means precise... but it just goes to show what can be looked into using minimum data. Distance only Target Motion Analysis does exist, this one I just described is the less scientific version. Submarine warfare target/contact tracking merely uses a more advanced version of this and use "bearing only" instead of "distance only". But then distance vs distance is a method usable for triangulation and navigation, and when lacking that, distance progression on an assumed speed time-range constraint can also be used. This is useful when used in conjunction with a blanket search pattern with multiple assets, where you can allocate certain assets to "areas of interest" generated by the target motion analysis while continuing the blanket search.

To say only the last ping is valuable is foolish.

Well if your going to say the north west "theories" the plane must have taken a direct path to the very end of the arc otherwise it wouldn't have the fuel. The last ping is valuable for the search which is what the focus should be. The interview from inmarsat (linked before) said that they made the estimates using all the data which means it already includes the previous pings. (If they saw data contradictory to estimate that would have been included in the estimate)

Releasing the data would just result in more confusion and nothing different, maybe later when the reports are made they will describe how they used all the pings to get the final estimate but I'll leave it to inmarsat to figure that out.

Especially more conspiracy theories misunderstanding the data and bending it to match their own non-real world claims.

[Edited 2014-03-21 00:17:19]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-21 00:17:04 and read 43289 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 46):
All of this would probably require stealing inmarsat's private keys which sign everything they make and that would be a huge security hole which isn't likely to exist and would open the door to stealing inmarsat services without paying for anything.

Inmarsat has been hacked before. Inmarsat satellite terminal spoofing has been done before. As someone who has worked with them before, I know this first hand. It's not easy, but it is not impossible. But yes, I think it's unlikely that this is the case here.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 46):
Then you would have to fake a valid simcard while making a duplicate of an existing one. Your spoof device would have to duplicate both the modem and sim card

The old Inmarsat-3 (Aeroclassic) aero services do not use a SIM card. Each terminal has its unique IMEI in the configuration control module. In I-4, that CMM also acts like a sim card... but not in the old I-3.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: NotAPilotYet
Posted 2014-03-21 00:21:00 and read 43171 times.

Quoting aviators99 (Reply 51):

I'm a psychologist, which seems to be much loathed around here. I'm obviously not a suicide expert, given that I'm still alive. At least I wasn't the one sprouting alien theories.

were did the rest of my post go?

[Edited 2014-03-21 00:26:19]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 00:21:07 and read 42996 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 55):
Inmarsat has been hacked before. Inmarsat satellite terminal spoofing has been done before. As someone who has worked with them before, I know this first hand. It's not easy, but it is not impossible. But yes, I think it's unlikely that this is the case here.

Please link that in I'd love to see how they did that. (free global internet)

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 55):
The old Inmarsat-3 (Aeroclassic) aero services do not use a SIM card. Each terminal has its unique IMEI in the configuration control module. In I-4, that CMM also acts like a sim card... but not in the old I-3.

Well maybe the interview was wrong but he (Chris McLaughlin, Senior Vice President of Inmarsat) did say:
http://nation.foxnews.com/2014/03/20...-could-help-find-malaysia-airliner

Q, How sure were and are you right now that it was this airplane

A, Just like a cellphone each piece of equipment has its own sim card and its own registration number, we are absolutely certain that we were seeing the readings from this particular aircraft.

[Edited 2014-03-21 00:25:05]

[Edited 2014-03-21 00:25:30]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-21 00:21:33 and read 42973 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 31):
Also, can you answer the question about fuel balancing? Is that done automatically? Or would it become a problem?

Assuming the fuel is burned evenly in left and right wings, the CoG may slowly shift as fuel is burned. However this would be slow since all the tankage has a small arm. It is all near the center so even a big change in mass makes for a small moment.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 31):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 22):

Thanks. I knew that commercial airliners are required to be stable.

But many theories have a bad cockpit fire as the cause of the plane flying off by itself. Presumably that would affect the control systems.

In that case all bets are off I suppose.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 37):
B******T -- The 777 (or most any airplane) will end up in the ground if you take your hands off the yoke no matter how well it's trimmed before you let go. The "phugoid" stuff may work theoretically but not so much in real life.

Static and dynamic longitudinal stability will damp out phugoids. But that's just the oscillations. Stability will not change the long term trajectory.

An airplane is never so well trimmed that it will maintain exact altitude with no intervention. If nothing else, any wind gust takes it out of trim. Having said that I would think that if the plane was left as straight and level as the pilot or autopilot could make it, and the air was still, and none of the pax got out of their seats and moved about, it would take quite a while for it to start climbing or sinking at any significant rate.

I have a bit of a hard time believing hours, though, but I really have no facts behind that belief.

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 34):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 22):
However a 777 has FBW, so the control system would work to keep it in the attitude the pilots or autopilot left it. In a bank, it would keep banking, but it would maintain a constant bank angle which would neither converge nor diverge.

I'm going to ask a slightly absurd question so that I can understand what you're trying to communicate. I'm not a pilot - but I understand the theories of flight, and I have hand flown a few "traditional" manual control aircraft - a piper cub and a T6, to be exact.

So lets say you are flying along in a 777, straight and level, all autopilots off. The pilot puts the aircraft into a 30 degree bank. He or she then stands up and walks to the lav, leaving the pointy end empty for 10 minutes.

When he or she returns, is the aircraft still going to be in a 30 degree bank, at the same altitude it was left at?

I had thought that Boeing's FBW implementation was relatively direct - in that it would still act "more or less" like a traditional aircraft; and not an implementation which would hold pitch/bank unless the pilot inputs a change in pitch or bank on the yoke.

Perhaps I have misunderstood the Boeing FBW philosophy/implementation...

As 7BOEING7 says (quoted below), once things have stabilized, "you'll just go around in circles".

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 37):
One of the customers doing an acceptance flight would do a roll angle vs time check so I've seen what happens many times. The airplane starts rolling left or right and probably if you let it go you will finally get to a little over 30 degrees and the bank angle protection will kick in and you'll just go around in circles.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: aviators99
Posted 2014-03-21 00:25:02 and read 42772 times.

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 56):
I'm a psychologist, which seems to be much loathed around here. I'm obviously not a suicide expert, given that I'm still alive. At least I wasn't the one sprouting alien theories.

Okay, then you do have some expertise in the area. You've never encountered someone committing suicide in a place they love--a place they've spent their whole life, and having been able to hide the intent to do so?

Btw, I put the odds of it being suicide at around 25%

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Mir
Posted 2014-03-21 00:26:57 and read 42608 times.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):
Yes, every plane will happily fly itself without pilot or autopilot.

For a short time, yes. Not for hours. Too many outside influences that would need some sort of corrective action either on the part of the pilots or autopilot.

Remember also that a widespread systems failure likely takes the yaw dampers with it, and then the airplane is subject to dutch roll, which will put it out of control in fairly short order.

-Mir

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: 320tech
Posted 2014-03-21 00:36:16 and read 42076 times.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):
Wouldn't someone in the Australian military have noticed an unidentified "blip" on their screen and said something?

The distance is well outside any reasonable interception range, no closer than 1,000 mi, from the reports I've seen. According to Wikipedia, the ferry range of an F-18 (C or E models) is 1,800 nm (ie, 900 nm radius), and the combat radius is much less (typically 400 to 500 nm, depending on profile).

Whether MH370 was close enough to be detected by Australian radar, I don't know.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_F/A-18_Hornet
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_F/A-18E/F_Super_Hornet

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: YoungMans
Posted 2014-03-21 00:38:02 and read 42038 times.

Quoting Shmendr (Reply 49):
Does anyone know where in Antarctica it would most likely have had to land?

At this time of year, at the beginning of the Antarctic winter, it is possible to land an aircraft on areas of so-called 'Blue Ice', i.e. plateau ice that is not covered with snow. Highly likely, though, the aircraft would never again get off the ground.
Why, because it would be in the middle of no-where with no-one to help you or look after you.
It's literally just ice - as far as the eye can see .... and in places with lots of crevasses.

The Australian Antarctic Division is operating an ice runway near Casey, which in turn is almost due south of Perth.
You can check them out here..:
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/

I would very much doubt it that aircraft operations are still feasible in the areas south of the Indian Ocean at this time of year; but that is only my guess. You can check it out on the AAD's website or, indeed, contact them.

It is likely, though, that the Americans are still flying down there; however, that would be from McMurdo, way out on the other side of Antarctica.

[Edited 2014-03-21 00:50:27]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-21 00:44:05 and read 41662 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 50):
To say only the last ping is valuable is foolish.

Thank you for your support.
For days. I have asked about them together with their error margins and maybe experimental calibration data using targets of opportunity but to no avail.
Among the more unexpected arguments I heard for not asking about earlier pings: it would confuse the media even more?????

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: NotAPilotYet
Posted 2014-03-21 00:46:42 and read 41658 times.

Quoting aviators99 (Reply 59):
NotA
Quoting aviators99 (Reply 59):
NotA

I have - I know what suicide looks like from the living end. And I'm not - really not, trying to use my holy frelling knowledge to apply to this. I'm just trying to understand - much like everyone else.

So suicide, no. On the backside, suicide makes sense. but so does every ACME contraption.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 00:49:06 and read 41405 times.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 64):
Thank you for your support.
For days. I have asked about them together with their error margins and maybe experimental calibration data using targets of opportunity but to no avail.

All the pings are valuable in making the last ping more accurate and the only thing SAR requires and values. Inmarsat doesn't have fixed error margins for a service that it isn't intended for, nor would they release internal calibration and network information to anyone on a whim.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 64):
Among the more unexpected arguments I heard for not asking about earlier pings: it would confuse the media even more?????

This demonstrates why the media should not have a bunch of "new" old data. Your both supposing the same thing that spoofing the inmarsat data is easily possible which it isn't. Maybe with government and insider support you could be that is by far a conspiracy theory that has already been discussed and is by far a extremely low probability event.

Edit: With so much rampant speculation drawing up the giant wedge on the map to show all the possible previous locations are going to make people say (look they spoofed it, they landed here, they did this, they did that) while ignoring the last ping. (This is just going to cause more confusion when actual experts from the company itself and multiple government(s) and government agencies have had access to the information and came to the conclusion we see in the news)

[Edited 2014-03-21 00:55:25]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: InsideMan
Posted 2014-03-21 00:49:32 and read 41500 times.

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 56):

If you have dealt with suicidal patients before, maybe you can shed some light on the things that bother me about the suicide theory....

1) Why would you specifically want to hide where your final resting place is? The suicides I know of are mainly designed to make people take notice (that it was a suicide)
2) In order to pull it of either of the pilots would have to incapacitate the other, probably kill him quickly. To take another mans life is something completely different than killing yourself.
3) Why take 239 souls with you?

The "take down the plane, the thing you love" I can understand, maybe he wanted to die doing the thing he loves most, but if that involves killing a colleague, killing innocent passengers and not let anyone know about it.... Seems far fetched.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-21 00:53:57 and read 41235 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 55):

have you seen or heard anything more regarding the crew or possible theories surrounding the disappearance? I got the impression you were starting to lean towards the northern corridor a few days ago...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: seahawk
Posted 2014-03-21 00:55:08 and read 41109 times.

I think as long as nobody has found the plane it is pointless to speculate on motives for suicide, hijacking or whatever.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: garpd
Posted 2014-03-21 00:55:36 and read 41232 times.

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 67):
1) Why would you specifically want to hide where your final resting place is? The suicides I know of are mainly designed to make people take notice (that it was a suicide)
2) In order to pull it of either of the pilots would have to incapacitate the other, probably kill him quickly. To take another mans life is something completely different than killing yourself.
3) Why take 239 souls with you?

In NotAPilotYet's defence:

1 - Not always true. People commit suicide in hidden, secluded areas all the time
2 - Some times if your mind is made up on suicide, you don't think rationally, you don't care.
3 - See answer 2.

Suicide is the most illogical and irrational thing to do, your whole existence is protected by an instinct of self preservation.
If you've decided to commit suicide, all forms of rational thinking and logic are off the table. You will do what you can to achieve the goal.

I am not supporting the suicide idea. But am I not dismissing it either.
We just don't have enough information to do either.

[Edited 2014-03-21 00:58:07]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Stabilator
Posted 2014-03-21 01:08:03 and read 40481 times.

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 67):

The "take down the plane, the thing you love" I can understand, maybe he wanted to die doing the thing he loves most, but if that involves killing a colleague, killing innocent passengers and not let anyone know about it.... Seems far fetched.

Far fetched to you maybe. But suicide is not rational. I was not in a rational state of mind when I was planning my own death. You can't for certain say every person who commits suicide wants people to know it happened. At that moment of time, nothing specific matters to the person. Those pax didn't mean anything to him. Just another number. When I went through what I did, my thoughts were completely inward. My.thoughts ate away at me and planning my death made me feel as if I would finally find relief. I stopped caring about everything else around me long before.

I don't support any theory at the moment because, personally, I don't have enough info. I'm just shedding light on my experiences on depression and suicide.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-21 01:09:28 and read 40559 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 57):
A, Just like a cellphone each piece of equipment has its own sim card and its own registration number, we are absolutely certain that we were seeing the readings from this particular aircraft.

Please tell me where the SIM card is on an I-3 Aero equipment...
He is not wrong but he is saying that to talk in layman's terms. It's much easier to say that than mention about the system having the antenna, BSU, DLNA, and SDU and that the CMM is in the SDU etc... There are IMEI information and other stuff for identification, but it's not a sim card, but yes, it's just like there's a sim card. It functions like cellphones in the pre-sim card days.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 57):
Please link that in I'd love to see how they did that.

Google is your friend... enjoy perusing...

Quoting tomlee (Reply 54):
Well if your going to say the north west "theories" the plane must have taken a direct path to the very end of the arc otherwise it wouldn't have the fuel.

Seeing this reply makes me thing you're not familiar with target motion analysis.
The arc that was published shows the possible locations of where the aircraft is on the last ping. It can be anywhere along that ping arc. Do you go to the location near the last radar contact, or the furthest away? The furthest away point on the arc does use the range circle (flying in a straight line) and the arc... Target motion analysis by the use of the intermediate pings are useful to see where along the arc is the most likely place (ie: the most likely place along the arc).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: NotAPilotYet
Posted 2014-03-21 01:13:20 and read 40366 times.

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 67):

Damn you guys are fast...
Inside... I'm agreeing with you - I never argued that his was normal. I only asked how this could be normal if somene on the crew was suicidal.

garpd - thank you for your defense. You're the only one who noticed that I wasn't arguing a suicide scenario.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: mariner
Posted 2014-03-21 01:14:10 and read 40133 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 71):
Suicide is the most illogical and irrational thing to do, your whole existence is protected by an instinct of self preservation.

That's a sweeping generalisation. Suicide can be entirely logical and rational.

mariner

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-21 01:15:05 and read 40609 times.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 69):
have you seen or heard anything more regarding the crew or possible theories surrounding the disappearance?

Yes, I have, but unfortunately it is not respectful to disclose such information at this time. So far I have found no information what would explain both pilots being co-conspirators in the disappearance. If the crew is involved, it's either one or the other of the two.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: garpd
Posted 2014-03-21 01:16:45 and read 40332 times.

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 75):
thank you for your defense. You're the only one who noticed that I wasn't arguing a suicide scenario.

You're welcome. I always try to say it as I see it.

Suicide is just as valid a theory here as any other scenario. It is also no less likely too.
If we never find the plane, we may never know.
If we never find the black boxes or they were disabled, we will never know!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: NotAPilotYet
Posted 2014-03-21 01:22:07 and read 40113 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 78):

And of course you had to be from Scotland - you're lucky you cant hear my voice. I slip into a brogue when I'm tired - messes my students up 

Again, thank you.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 01:22:44 and read 32021 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 74):
Google is your friend... enjoy perusing...

Please provide a let me google that for you link. Already tried google fu.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 74):
Please tell me where the SIM card is on an I-3 Aero equipment...
He is not wrong but he is saying that to talk in layman's terms. It's much easier to say that than mention about the system having the antenna, BSU, DLNA, and SDU and that the CMM is in the SDU etc... There are IMEI information and other stuff for identification, but it's not a sim card, but yes, it's just like there's a sim card. It functions like cellphones in the pre-sim card days.

If you could provide the technical manuals and datasheets as isn't that easy compared to electronic components from freescale or texas instruments the datasheets for these systems are not widely available and the public facing docs are quite limited and read like ads more than datasheets. I'll take an actual datasheet over the vice president's word on the matter.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 74):
Seeing this reply makes me thing you're not familiar with target motion analysis.
The arc that was published shows the possible locations of where the aircraft is on the last ping. It can be anywhere along that ping arc. Do you go to the location near the last radar contact, or the furthest away? The furthest away point on the arc does use the range circle (flying in a straight line) and the arc... Target motion analysis by the use of the intermediate pings are useful to see where along the arc is the most likely place (ie: the most likely place along the arc).

No, the furthest location of the northern route requires that it flew basically directly at the maximum most efficient speed towards it (flying slower or taking a non-direct route) would have ended short or somewhere further from the north west of the data we see. The arc is defined by the slowest and fastest speeds which are also the shortest and longest distances to the arc. (You can clearly see this with a scaled ruler) There is simply no way to reach that extreme northern most point if you took a non-direct route form the last known point. (You fly slower, non-direct and the plane would run out of fuel and that location would not be possible to reach)

It isn't really target motion analysis the target can do whatever it wants but it can't make Jet-A out of thin air to go anywhere. (The estimate is based more on the known fuel quantity)

[Edited 2014-03-21 01:23:17]

[Edited 2014-03-21 01:28:52]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-21 01:31:38 and read 39579 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 77):

interesting, that puts either in a position of motives for possibly partaking in this... Political for the pilot (assumed) something unknown (for now, to me at least) for the copilot.

i can understand why that information is sensitive right now- its difficult enough for the relatives as it is.

Whilst it's not popular to say so, I'm still hoping that this is a hijacking and the plane really did land somewhere... However unlikely that may be.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: InsideMan
Posted 2014-03-21 01:36:05 and read 39248 times.

Quoting Stabilator (Reply 73):
I don't support any theory at the moment because, personally, I don't have enough info. I'm just shedding light on my experiences on depression and suicide.

thanks for sharing. It appears you're feeling better? I have to say I'm lucky I never wrestled with depression, but from a friends perspective I understand it takes you to very dark places....

But even in situations like that, would you be even able to plan so meticulously the timeline of evens, when to off the other pilot etc.?


Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 75):
garpd - thank you for your defense. You're the only one who noticed that I wasn't arguing a suicide scenario.

I hope it's clear I didn't want to mock or attack you, quite the contrary, I was wondering if the points I raised are actually more common than the layman believes....

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: NotAPilotYet
Posted 2014-03-21 01:42:07 and read 39029 times.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 81):

You're right - that's what makes this infuriating. We don't know anything. I keep re-reading the sanity checks to make sure I understand everything (blows for me so far), and we still know nothing.

the good news is that this, right here, makes us human. Curiosity is a wonderful thing.

Now you can go back to skewering the noob  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: lono
Posted 2014-03-21 01:45:54 and read 38765 times.

I have been trying to keep up with this post and my apologies if this question has been discussed.
Has anyone from MH discussed the cargo load on this flight? Was there any high value cargo listed?
Thanks!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: garpd
Posted 2014-03-21 01:49:15 and read 38629 times.

Quoting lono (Reply 84):
I have been trying to keep up with this post and my apologies if this question has been discussed.
Has anyone from MH discussed the cargo load on this flight? Was there any high value cargo listed?
Thanks!

Just a whole load of Mangosteens apparently.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: LandSweetLand
Posted 2014-03-21 01:51:42 and read 38486 times.

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 83):
and we still know nothing

That's about it really. The plane took off and didn't land when or where it was expected to.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 01:52:07 and read 38423 times.

Quoting lono (Reply 84):

I have been trying to keep up with this post and my apologies if this question has been discussed.
Has anyone from MH discussed the cargo load on this flight? Was there any high value cargo listed?
Thanks!

There is a summary post that has the info your looking for (its mostly unchanging and the cargo was discussed a while ago so you should be able to find it in any of the threads with the sanity check post)

But quickly of the top of my head.

Freescale Employees are production engineers (packaging and final assembly) nothing particularly high value (brains or cargo)

Gold, Not on the manifest and if it was in high quantities someone would notice and the plane's CoG could be affected (Gold is really heavy)

The manifest apparently shows nothing dangerous and it is mostly fresh fruits (mangosteen)
There was some talk of lithium battery but that isn't on the cargo manifest
Note the cargo manifest doesn't list items in checked baggage

Quoting LandSweetLand (Reply 86):
That's about it really. The plane took off and didn't land when or where it was expected to.

Basically if we didn't have the inmarsat keep alive messages the plane would likely be lost forever. (That is assuming they find something based on the pings) They seriously need to consider modifying the ELTs to work before a crash and activate in test mode when a plane goes "dark".

[Edited 2014-03-21 03:41:01 by SA7700]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: NotAPilotYet
Posted 2014-03-21 02:00:00 and read 38167 times.

Quoting aviators99 (Reply 51):
Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 19):
This is the one place where I have expertise, and this is not that.
Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 48):
To take down a plane, the thing you love, the thing you spent a huge part of your life doing - to do that, what would it take? Tell me. Then tell me how you would hide it. Not the plane - the behavior?

I can't reconcile these two statements. Are you sure you're an expert in suicide?

One is a statement and the other is a question. Otherwise, I can't find the appropriate smilie.

And no, I never claimed to be a suicide expert. To be an expert, you have to understand normal people who want to die. Clinicians suck at this. I am not that.

All I was proposing was that suicide doesn't make sense. I hope I'm wrong. I will pray to everyone that I'm wrong

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: iberiadc852
Posted 2014-03-21 02:05:32 and read 37947 times.

Has anyone tried to check the supposed coincidences in the timing of SATCOM pings with the known route of SQ 68?

Has this theory been dismissed in a factual way beyond the supposed difficulty to execute it and/or to avoid the zone radars?. Because the context we have already about this missing looks to me MUCH MORE DIFFICULT than those "difficulties".

In fact, the sequence of pings in that theory "looked" as coincidences IN FAVOUR to that route, while to explain a chain of failures or a suicidal southern route, you NEED TO BUILD the coincidences for it.

I would like to eat my words, but at the moment I find much more probable the aircraft is North and even safe landed.


As about the arguments against the aircraft being in Pakistan, while they could be credible, they don't dismiss the northern route. The aircraft could have landed elsewhere in the zone.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Unflug
Posted 2014-03-21 02:07:41 and read 37929 times.

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 89):
And no, I never claimed to be a suicide expert. To be an expert, you have to understand normal people who want to die. Clinicians suck at this. I am not that.

You have expertise then, but are not an expert?

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 19):
Hi folks - can we stop with the suicide theories now? Please? This is the one place where I have expertise, and this is not that. I've read the last 40 threads, I have learned the language, and I have even shut the effen up when I have a question.


You are distinctively different, most of the posters here are experts without any expertise  Wink

[Edited 2014-03-21 02:09:22]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: rheinwaldner
Posted 2014-03-21 02:08:35 and read 37779 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 3):
Why haven't they released these 7 ping distances? This the most important information available as to the planes whereabouts.

Why do they need to release it that would just cause more confusion than already exists...

Assumed the plane flew straight with no turns and constant speed, it is very likely a rather simple mathematical job to determine nonambiguously whether the plane flew on northern or the southern Arc.

As the two possible tracks mostly are more or less rectangular vs each other, the 7 ping distances, combined with some basic dead reckoning methodology could show us with a high probabillity, where the plane went.

Even analysing the prevailing wind components along the possible tracks could be added into the calculation in order to prove that one or the other route could be less likely.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 4):
The only ping that matters is the last PING

No. Clearly not. With dead reckoning and the ping distances, you get 7 likely fixes which very likely will match only with one of be possible routes once other known constraints are considered in addition (e.g. wind)....
In other words:
Considering all the 7 pings will rule out a lot of places, where the plane could be when just looking at the last one.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 02:17:09 and read 37371 times.

Quoting iberiadc852 (Reply 90):
Has anyone tried to check the supposed coincidences in the timing of SATCOM pings with the known route of SQ 68?

Has this theory been dismissed in a factual way beyond the supposed difficulty to execute it and/or to avoid the zone radars?. Because the context we have already about this missing looks to me MUCH MORE DIFFICULT than those "difficulties".

In fact, the sequence of pings in that theory "looked" as coincidences IN FAVOUR to that route, while to explain a chain of failures or a suicidal southern route, you NEED TO BUILD the coincidences for it.

I would like to eat my words, but at the moment I find much more probable the aircraft is North and even safe landed.


As about the arguments against the aircraft being in Pakistan, while they could be credible, they don't dismiss the northern route. The aircraft could have landed elsewhere in the zone.

Like I've said earlier and the summaries posted have as well. The satcom pings don't have a direct point unless there is secondary information to make it more precise. If the plane followed SQ 68 in the shadow as your supposing it would not have been able to make it to the far north point on the arc. It would also not have enough fuel to reach the circle further north west. The arc is drawn such that the plane flew in a direct most efficient route possible and that is the furthest it could have possibly gone. It would have ended up in the China region of the arc if it did anything tricky to hide from radars (nap of the earth) or sneak behind planes.

This is exactly why releasing the intermediate points is a bad idea, people and the media are going to start saying oh there is enough fuel from this point to go to Pakistan, Iran, ... (while totally glossing over the last ping being in a different area entirely) then elevating theories which are borderline insane and eventually this will filter down to the families and cause even more confusion and anguish, anger, false hope, ...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Stabilator
Posted 2014-03-21 02:18:54 and read 37296 times.

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 82):

I am better, thank you for asking. And I made some pretty in depth plans at the time, so IF pilot suicide is what happened, it wouldn't surprise me if he had a detailed plan on when to take control and carry out the plan. Once again I'm not subscribing to any specific theory. At my former uni a flight instructor took a twin engine up and killed himself because he got a DUI. IIRC he did radio in his "note" before he crashed. Obviously there is an absence of any intent (note,statement, hints to friends and family) which may or may not reduce credibility to the theory.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-21 02:24:33 and read 36972 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 66):
Your both supposing the same thing that spoofing the inmarsat data is easily possible which it isn't. Maybe with government and insider support you could be that is by far a conspiracy theory that has already been discussed and is by far a extremely low probability event.

I have only been trying to emphasize that the last ping estimate is so critical to the overall investigative process that it should be verified, re-verified and re-re-verified the way scientists would.

May be that has been done but then I do not understand why the other pings with their margin of error have not been published. I did not say that a crude satcom clone existed. I said that if all the pings happened to fall within a band that is of the order of the expected margin of error, then I would not rule out spoofing off-hand or MH370 flying in circles.

If margin or errors are hard to estimate or the MH370 ping data is so confidential(?), why not repetitively ping and publish the results of pinging some aircraft that happen to fly westward from Malaysia and compare the results with their known GPS locations. Of course, an error somewhat less than 12kms is expected due to the unknown altitude and will move the aircraft west (closer to 0N, 64,5E) of its true position. It is the overall error that we are after.

Those results should help everybody involved in the investigation sleep better since so much is riding on the pings.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: NotAPilotYet
Posted 2014-03-21 02:28:53 and read 36860 times.

Quoting Unflug (Reply 91):

I claimed to be an expert on people - sucked for me. But, in my defense, I'm better than the media - I'm willing to be wrong.

I still don't buy the suicide scenario - but that's just me

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 02:30:27 and read 36761 times.

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 93):
Assumed the plane flew straight with no turns and constant speed, it is very likely a rather simple mathematical job to determine nonambiguously whether the plane flew on northern or the southern Arc.

As the two possible tracks mostly are more or less rectangular vs each other, the 7 ping distances, combined with some basic dead reckoning methodology could show us with a high probabillity, where the plane went.

Even analysing the prevailing wind components along the possible tracks could be added into the calculation in order to prove that one or the other route could be less likely.

It isn't a simple job the plane could have flown a 50deg, 45deg, 40deg track in any number of valid ways in both the north and south track. Inmarsat themselves built the estimate and used all the data they had and required a few days to produce what we see as the likely endpoint (which by their assumption is the fuel starvation point)

If flown in a mostly direct path it will look identical for both the north and south routes unless it did some crazy deviations which would not result in what we saw from the last ping. The sat pings are not precise and the best they can tell us is approximately where the flight stopped. The intermediate points can help with the final estimate but in themselves are not very useful without other data.

The pings don't provide a location or heading. I don't know how many times I have to repeat this. Dead reckoning requires you have a good idea where you started and where your course changes are (the satcom pings provide neither a good location update nor heading/direction update other than it is going towards or away from the sat in all directions around it)

The fuel consumption is the only thing that can really be refined with any degree of accuracy and the prevailing winds/weather could be used to refine the estimate maximum range for the area on the last ping.

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 93):
No. Clearly not. With dead reckoning and the ping distances, you get 7 likely fixes which very likely will match only with one of be possible routes once other known constraints are considered in addition (e.g. wind)....
In other words:
Considering all the 7 pings will rule out a lot of places, where the plane could be when just looking at the last one.

No there is no "fix" this isn't GPS, GEO sats only provide the crude distance to the sat and this draws a giant circle where the plane could be. If it took any connected route to the end within the possible fuel use it would be valid and hard to see with most routes on the intermediate pings. If the route could be easily determined from the north or south just based on the satcom pings they would have done so long ago. The seven pings correspond to huge areas of the earth which only the last primary radar fix and fuel quantities constrain.

If anything the network data probably required using the older pings to build the estimate for the last as the data probably isn't perfect and inmarsat was never intended to do this. I'd leave it upto the experts to make the probable paths.

They already reduced the southern area by an order of magnitude so they also can/have done so for the north. There is no need for us so called "experts" to make up search areas for them.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: flood
Posted 2014-03-21 02:31:42 and read 36781 times.

For anyone interested, the daily press conference should be starting in a few minutes
http://english.astroawani.com/

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 02:40:01 and read 36336 times.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 96):
I have only been trying to emphasize that the last ping estimate is so critical to the overall investigative process that it should be verified, re-verified and re-re-verified the way scientists would.

May be that has been done but then I do not understand why the other pings with their margin of error have not been published. I did not say that a crude satcom clone existed. I said that if all the pings happened to fall within a band that is of the order of the expected margin of error, then I would not rule out spoofing off-hand or MH370 flying in circles.

If margin or errors are hard to estimate or the MH370 ping data is so confidential(?), why not repetitively ping and publish the results of pinging some aircraft that happen to fly westward from Malaysia and compare the results with their known GPS locations. Of course, an error somewhat less than 12kms is expected due to the unknown altitude and will move the aircraft west (closer to 0N, 64,5E) of its true position. It is the overall error that we are after.

Those results should help everybody involved in the investigation sleep better since so much is riding on the pings.

Scientists won't post their raw data onto a public general forum usually peer evaluation happens with actual experts in a more controlled fashion. I'm sure the various involved governments and inmarsat refined it using all the data they had.

I have already provided my opinion on why a smart company and relevant government agencies were selective in releasing the best and hardest to misunderstand data. It is clear you do not agree with this opinion and I cannot do anything to change this. Nor can I publish the data for you and I doubt they will publish it due to my previously mentioned reasons. It is highly likely we will see how it was all done when the reports come out in the years to come.

Spoofing is not trivial and would not make any sense logical sense even for a deliberate action (just disable the modem) vs. spending all the effort for less.

Watch the press conference the address your questions directly as to how the US authorities were involved and refined the estimates using the entire raw sat data provided by inmarsat. (It repeats usually once after)

http://www.astroawani.com/videos/live

[Edited 2014-03-21 02:40:51]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-21 02:44:13 and read 36010 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 98):
GEO sats only provide the crude distance to the sat and this draws a giant circle where the plane could be.

Not all GEO sats provide a crude distance. 3F1 does because it was not designed for that. Some GEO payloads are used extensively to measure RTD to within tens of meters given a proper waveform and everything else done right to account for any latency.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: NotAPilotYet
Posted 2014-03-21 02:45:03 and read 36061 times.

Quoting Unflug (Reply 91):

I try to shine...

for my first day here asking questions, not to bad. I've learned drift calculations, satellite imaging drifts, and planes in the middle of nowhere. Not bad for a psychologist.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-21 02:45:43 and read 36171 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 80):
No, the furthest location of the northern route requires that it flew basically directly at the maximum most efficient speed towards it (flying slower or taking a non-direct route) would have ended short or somewhere further from the north west of the data we see. The arc is defined by the slowest and fastest speeds which are also the shortest and longest distances to the arc. (You can clearly see this with a scaled ruler) There is simply no way to reach that extreme northern most point if you took a non-direct route form the last known point. (You fly slower, non-direct and the plane would run out of fuel and that location would not be possible to reach)

No? You do realize that we're talking about the same thing. The northwestern most point of the arc is the furthest the airplane can possibly go to along the 40deg incline angle circle of the satellite's footprint (about a 2550nm radius circle from 64E on the equator)... it is where the satellite footprint at 40deg inclination circle intersects the 2700nm radius circle from the point of last contact. Maybe you got confused with my repeated use of the word "arc"?

Sorry, the intermediary pings are useful to determine where the plane isn't going to be, and can provide various areas of interest along the red arc where it is quite likely to be.

Those who are thinking that the intermediary pings are useful also agree that if the plane did shadow another airplane, it would not be anywhere near the edge of the endurance circle (hence away from the red arc's northwestern end)...

Quoting tomlee (Reply 94):
This is exactly why releasing the intermediate points is a bad idea, people and the media are going to start saying oh there is enough fuel from this point to go to Pakistan, Iran,

Determining where it landed is already dangerous then... let's put it this way... once it lands, the satcom can be disabled. Just switch off the bloody SDU above the cabin panels. Then it can take off again and the satellite won't pick up any pings or whatever. And guess what... from wherever it landed it can have enough fuel to go to Pakistan, Iran, and even... Tel Aviv! So let's not find it because people are going to go crazy about it. I mean... really?

---
And no, I don't have a manual for that version of the satcom. I do have for a newer version which has the SIM but not in the form of a SIMcard. It's in the Configuration Module you plug onto the SDU. The older ones (I-3) has a similar version but both version the configuration module is specific to the aircraft.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: iberiadc852
Posted 2014-03-21 02:46:59 and read 35934 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 93):
If the plane followed SQ 68 in the shadow as your supposing it would not have been able to make it to the far north point on the arc. It would also not have enough fuel to reach the circle further north west.

I find it quite debatable. Aren't we talking about two similar routes in length?.
Have you considered the winds in that route?
What is the exact reason for demanding so much fuel to reach the northern point?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: cougar15
Posted 2014-03-21 02:51:51 and read 35949 times.

Quoting SA7700 (Thread starter):
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

A german´rag´(real nasty tabloid) is reporting there was 3 tons of Gold in the bellies, anyone heard this before or from a more reliable source?

[Edited 2014-03-21 02:52:41]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 02:56:11 and read 35590 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 100):
Determining where it landed is already dangerous then... let's put it this way... once it lands, the satcom can be disabled. Just switch off the bloody SDU above the cabin panels. Then it can take off again and the satellite won't pick up any pings or whatever. And guess what... from wherever it landed it can have enough fuel to go to Pakistan, Iran, and even... Tel Aviv! So let's not find it because people are going to go crazy about it. I mean... really?

---
And no, I don't have a manual for that version of the satcom. I do have for a newer version which has the SIM but not in the form of a SIMcard. It's in the Configuration Module you plug onto the SDU. The older ones (I-3) has a similar version but both version the configuration module is specific to the aircraft.

So you have a newer version (dated when?) still wouldn't mind that (I love obscure manuals). A configuration module which acts like a sim, talks a like a sim, is probable a sim card in a holder which gets a name for the holder itself. (At least that is what I'm guessing without a datasheet to go on). Have you ever taken apart a configuration module is it a huge board or a smallish block with few pins.

Why not just not have satcom on from the start. No one was talking about satcom within the flight time so they wouldn't have known inmarsat knew. This whole stealing plane theory is far fetched and well covered. Hiding a 777 from primary military radar isn't easy. And now with all the theories flying it is going to get smacked out of the sky if it shows up later. (Which begs the question of how smart these people were in the first place assuming that theory)

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 100):
No? You do realize that we're talking about the same thing. The northwestern most point of the arc is the furthest the airplane can possibly go to along the 40deg incline angle circle of the satellite's footprint (about a 2550nm radius circle from 64E on the equator)... it is where the satellite footprint at 40deg inclination circle intersects the 2700nm radius circle from the point of last contact. Maybe you got confused with my repeated use of the word "arc"?

Sorry, the intermediary pings are useful to determine where the plane isn't going to be, and can provide various areas of interest along the red arc where it is quite likely to be.

Those who are thinking that the intermediary pings are useful also agree that if the plane did shadow another airplane, it would not be anywhere near the edge of the endurance circle (hence away from the red arc's northwestern end)...

The authorities already used all the data to get the arcs. The intermediate pings would have already been used otherwise they wouldn't use all the data and take days to figure out the estimate. If the plane shadowed another plane it still has to land on the endurance circle (its where it was last pinged...) that is the contradiction with the shadowing/nap of the earth theory it isn't possible.

The last ping defines where the plane was last. If can't fall short of that because that is what it is. (If you think it went west then anything other than flying direct, which we know for sure would result in discovery by radar would place it far far east on the same endurance circle)


Quoting cougar15 (Reply 101):
A german´rag´(real nasty tabloid) is reporting there was 3 tons of Gold in the bellies, anyone heard this before or from a more reliable source?

The cargo manifest did not metion that listing according to earlier official reports. And 3 tons of Gold would not go un-noticed. (It would be a box the size of a bathtub but would weigh 3 tons)

Oh my, they technically lied about the cargo manifest. There are lithium batteries in the shipment according to the press conference. But they were well packed apparently according to international standards so are considered "safe". (If they meet the requirements it should have been fine, I've gotten a digikey box by air with one lithum battery in a double big labeled box with tiny fraction of the box being a single coin cell battery even if it caught fire it probably wouldn't have made it out of the box by the time it got to my door)

They should really just let the NTSB help out a bit more in the press conference side of things. (Or at least get their media teams to help prepare statements).

[Edited 2014-03-21 04:06:11 by SA7700]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: dragon-wings
Posted 2014-03-21 03:04:22 and read 35549 times.

CNN is reporting now that the search planes did not find anything on the second day of the search of the southern Indian ocean.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 03:07:12 and read 35432 times.

Quoting dragon-wings (Reply 105):

CNN is reporting now that the search planes did not find anything on the second day of the search of the southern Indian ocean.

Strange haven't seen anything on AMSA's own site/twitter and they usually are just as fast or faster. Not to mention aren't they on the third day of the search?

Edit: going onto the fourth day (AMSA already has day 4 planned areas up)

[Edited 2014-03-21 03:08:19]

Or I guess CNN might mean the second day of the sat debris search (that is a bit confusing).

[Edited 2014-03-21 03:09:51]


The days searched and corresponding areas are here (3 days by plane going onto 4), http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/inciden...cumulative_search_area_handout.pdf

[Edited 2014-03-21 03:14:22]

[Edited 2014-03-21 03:15:01]

Edit lots, They also said at the start it could take a few days to look for the sat based debris and weeks for the entire search.

[Edited 2014-03-21 03:16:11]

[Edited 2014-03-21 03:16:36]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: dragon-wings
Posted 2014-03-21 03:12:49 and read 34905 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 106):
Not to mention aren't they on the third day of the search?

I thought they ment the second day of searching with planes.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: mika
Posted 2014-03-21 03:13:04 and read 35051 times.

What is the latest regarding this? Has it been concluded that there was nothing to be found in the area that was brought up yesterday?

Pardon my laziness to look through the vast amount of posts here (currently on the move).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 03:21:08 and read 34873 times.

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/inciden...-03-18/20120928adf8252964_231a.jpg

Just noticed they are still running windows xp on the noise blurred out computer in the linked image (wonder what map is behind that)(I hope they have their extended service agreement with Microsoft)

Wow, just noticed they use two pass blurring techniques as well to hide stuff cleanly they don't want us to see. (One random chroma noise and a standard block blur)(it is on the map, taskbar/computer)

[Edited 2014-03-21 03:22:12]

[Edited 2014-03-21 03:23:03]




Although they did it in quite a hurry as they hit the guys hand a bit and they could use some finer masking to not blur stuff like his arm/hand.

[Edited 2014-03-21 03:24:25]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: LandSweetLand
Posted 2014-03-21 03:29:13 and read 34193 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 87):
Note the cargo manifest doesn't list items in checked baggage

Don't start the conspiracy theorists off with that now. Or we'll be seeing theories of someone using LiPos in their phone etc to

Quoting tomlee (Reply 109):

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/inciden...-03-18/20120928adf8252964_231a.jpg

Just noticed they are still running windows xp on the noise blurred out computer in the linked image (wonder what map is behind that)(I hope they have their extended service agreement with Microsoft)

Wow, just noticed they use two pass blurring techniques as well to hid stuff cleanly they don't want us to see.

That photo is about 1.5 years old though (check the exif info + file name). So they might have updated since then.

[Edited 2014-03-21 03:30:17]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 03:32:58 and read 33877 times.

Quoting LandSweetLand (Reply 110):
Don't start the conspiracy theorists off with that now. Or we'll be seeing theories of someone using LiPos in their phone etc to

True. Should be more careful with my wording.

Quoting LandSweetLand (Reply 110):
That photo is 2 years old though (check the exif info + file name). So they might have updated since then.

Oh that is good, hopefully, I have some clients who's IT departments have no plans to move forward even though they have no extended support for XP and it is security updates stop very soon and they are running what I consider high risk applications in networked industrial systems. (April 8, 2014)

[Edited 2014-03-21 03:33:07]

[Edited 2014-03-21 03:33:20]

Edit: all their machines, business side still run windows xp as well. I also warned them a few years ago when I did a project with them and again recently but they don't think they are a target so brushed it off... (ostrich effect/algo)


[Edited 2014-03-21 03:34:47]

[Edited 2014-03-21 03:42:41]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-21 03:44:40 and read 33237 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 102):
The cargo manifest did not metion that listing according to earlier official reports. And 3 tons of Gold would not go un-noticed. (It would be a box the size of a bathtub but would weigh 3 tons)

Forget about Gold, how about Uranium as some people suggested from the very first beginning

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 03:50:43 and read 32865 times.

Quoting capri (Reply 111):
Forget about Gold, how about Uranium as some people suggested from the very first beginning

I don't think they mentioned that either and hiding uranium isn't that easy either it also weighs quite a lot (basically as much as gold). Hiding it in a shipping container would make far more sense as there are far more ways to hide it in a large shipment.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: YoungMans
Posted 2014-03-21 03:56:34 and read 32556 times.

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 89):
Considering all the 7 pings will rule out a lot of places, where the plane could be when just looking at the last one.

These seven 'pings', or just one, are confusing .... Is it correct to assume that:
The satellite wouldn't know whether the 'ping' comes from the aircraft airborne or, just as likely, while parked up on an apron, with all the necessary electric power switched on?
As long as it is from anywhere in that proverbial wedge, which then would have to be the northern one.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-21 03:57:28 and read 32586 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 111):
I don't think they mentioned that either and hiding uranium isn't that easy either it also weighs quite a lot (basically as much as gold). Hiding it in a shipping container would make far more sense as there are far more ways to hide it in a large shipment.

don't forget also that Malaysia was highlighted as illegal arms deals transit point, someone as was suggested didn't want some shipments to be caught by customs, 14 days and not to releasethe catgo manifest and still investigating raises lots of more questions and they are not making any easier to put these theories to bed

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 04:04:06 and read 32184 times.

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 112):
These seven 'pings', or just one, are confusing .... Is it correct to assume that:
The satellite wouldn't know whether the 'ping' comes from the aircraft airborne or, just as likely, while parked up on an apron, with all the necessary electric power switched on?
As long as it is from anywhere in that proverbial wedge, which then would have to be the northern one.

If the plane was stationary for all seven pings it would result in a totally differnt arc estimate which would look very unusual and would be a lot shorter than the final ping we see which is just about when the plane would have run out of fuel. The running assumption is the plane flew on for ~7 hours (the max with its fuel load) and basically fell out of the sky and did not land safely unfortunately. And if you read all the previous threads there is a lot of other problems with landing in the north. (Radar, valid runways, cell,...)

And there is no possible landing area wedge. I should not even talk about these middle points just adds to the confusion, the only place the plane's flight ended (and likely crashed) is around the north/south arc we see in the media/press releases.

Quoting capri (Reply 113):
don't forget also that Malaysia was highlighted as illegal arms deals transit point, someone as was suggested didn't want some shipments to be caught by customs, 14 days and not to releasethe catgo manifest and still investigating raises lots of more questions and they are not making any easier to put these theories to bed

We don't need to be making the theories in the first place. Smuggling by sea is far more effective and can provide better results with less risk, less chance of interception, and far less media coverage. With a passenger jet going to china the risk of angering China + ever other nation with passengers on the flight is extreme so for one smuggling attempt it seems like a very poor and low probability of succeeding idea.

Edit: Nothing to do but wait now. It will take a few weeks to finish the searching in the north/south so I'd be more interested in talking about how to stop planes from going missing with the least cost/weight/power/etc... (ELT mod is the main idea I have)

[Edited 2014-03-21 04:50:24 by SA7700]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 04:06:46 and read 32003 times.

Quoting capri (Reply 113):
don't forget also that Malaysia was highlighted as illegal arms deals transit point, someone as was suggested didn't want some shipments to be caught by customs, 14 days and not to releasethe catgo manifest and still investigating raises lots of more questions and they are not making any easier to put these theories to bed

We don't need to be making the theories in the first place. Smuggling by sea is far more effective and can provide better results with less risk, less chance of interception, and far less media coverage. With a passenger jet going to china the risk of angering China + ever other nation with passengers on the flight is extreme so for one smuggling attempt it seems like a very poor and low probability of succeeding idea.

Edit: Nothing to do but wait now. It will take a few weeks to finish the searching in the north/south so I'd be more interested in talking about how to stop planes from going missing with the least cost/weight/power/etc... (ELT mod is the main idea I have)

[Edited 2014-03-21 04:11:36]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: chaseus1
Posted 2014-03-21 04:12:40 and read 31647 times.

I think the other earlier pings are important because they can show if the routing was consistent. Simple geometry could show possible general routes through the distance rings each hour from the satellite, by seeing how long it took, to go from one distance ring to another. Certain headings will work with the math for whichever distance ring it was hitting each hour. Plus, if the plane had been on a northern route, it may have given an idea of where to look, for possible targets when reviewing archived radar data. In fact, this may apply to Australian radar on the southern route as well.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: enobar
Posted 2014-03-21 04:12:47 and read 31737 times.

A quick scan of wiki says that PC3 Orion's aren't capable of aerial refuelling but are the P8's?

If so I'm kind of surprised that the RAAF haven't decided to send out their shiney new KC30's so that they could keep the P8's aloft and searching for longer stretches at a time.

Anyone know why that wouldn't be feasible?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: cand
Posted 2014-03-21 04:15:12 and read 31564 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 102):
The authorities already used all the data to get the arcs. The intermediate pings would have already been used otherwise they wouldn't use all the data and take days to figure out the estimate. If the plane shadowed another plane it still has to land on the endurance circle (its where it was last pinged...) that is the contradiction with the shadowing/nap of the earth theory it isn't possible.

The last ping defines where the plane was last. If can't fall short of that because that is what it is. (If you think it went west then anything other than flying direct, which we know for sure would result in discovery by radar would place it far far east on the same endurance circle)

I hope they used the data form all pings and it confirms the north/south current assumption. It should look like: 45deg at 1:11, 50deg at 2:11, and next ones gradually changing to end with 40deg at 8:11. If the sequence is different, you come to different conclusions. For example, if last 5-6 pings are all at 40deg, the plane might be in Laos (and somehow the systems were still running on the ground).

So it might have went south towards the middle of the ocean. I don't believe the plane flew itself. Somebody was in control and would not or could not communicate. But why go there? To deliver some cargo to a waiting ship? To take some nasty bomb far away from populated areas? Quite far-fetched...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: kevinkevin
Posted 2014-03-21 04:18:17 and read 31536 times.

I can definitely make out the Malaysian logo on one of those pictures from the Satellite. I expected better quality pictures than that from a satellite costing millions. Have they purposely blurred these pictures?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 04:19:35 and read 31391 times.

Quoting chaseus1 (Reply 114):

I think the other earlier pings are important because they can show if the routing was consistent. Simple geometry could show possible general routes through the distance rings each hour from the satellite, by seeing how long it took, to go from one distance ring to another. Certain headings will work with the math for whichever distance ring it was hitting each hour. Plus, if the plane had been on a northern route, it may have given an idea of where to look, for possible targets when reviewing archived radar data. In fact, this may apply to Australian radar on the southern route as well.

I think in my opinion that the smart people at inmarsat who where the first ones to develop this method with the NTSB which already narrowed the search area already did that. They used all the data they have, we just see the results. (I'm amazed they can even get results as good as they show)(They call it the last ping because it is just that but that doesn't mean they ignored everything before)

Just wait for the final/interm reports for how they did it or eventually the media will poke and prod enough for them to explain in detail. (The methods are probably still being refined, just as the search area is refined).

I would love to play investigator with all the raw data now but I can easily see from here how it will get twisted and points discounted and ignored and a selective truth built to prop up shaky conspiracy theories. (This is why well organized press releases are so important, the AMSA seems to be doing a very good job)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: garpd
Posted 2014-03-21 04:23:22 and read 31169 times.

Quoting kevinkevin (Reply 117):
I can definitely make out the Malaysian logo on one of those pictures from the Satellite. I expected better quality pictures than that from a satellite costing millions. Have they purposely blurred these pictures?

What satellite image? I see lots of references to them, but no links.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 04:23:43 and read 31298 times.

Quoting cand (Reply 116):

It is really simple the plane likely crashed into the ocean after running out of fuel. (Adding on an objective, motive, purpose is basically pointless at this point as there isn't anything to go on) The theories about landing, hiding, ... have been well covered in previous threads.


Quoting kevinkevin (Reply 117):

I can definitely make out the Malaysian logo on one of those pictures from the Satellite. I expected better quality pictures than that from a satellite costing millions. Have they purposely blurred these pictures?

I can't see anything but the fact one of the image sets is a multi-spectral image which could tell more than what we can see in a false colour flattened version.

Quoting garpd (Reply 119):
What satellite image? I see lots of references to them, but no links.
http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/images/DIGO_00718_01_14.jpg
http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/images/DIGO_00718_02_14.jpg

[Edited 2014-03-21 04:27:02 by SA7700]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-21 04:27:17 and read 31013 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 119):

What satellite image? I see lots of references to them, but no links.

They have been linked to numerous times. But if you are expecting to see a MH logo, I think you'll be disappointed.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BjJxqOSCEAA0FDd.jpg:large

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BjJuIzwCUAAz_ca.jpg

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-21 04:29:09 and read 30813 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 112):
If the plane was stationary for all seven pings it would result in a totally differnt arc estimate which would look very unusual and would be a lot shorter than the final ping we see which is just about when the plane would have run out of fuel.

Really??? based on what?

Quoting tomlee (Reply 112):
The running assumption is the plane flew on for ~7 hours

Ah Ah! Now I get it. The demonstration that it is not stationary is because the "running assumption" is that it flew for 7 hours!!!!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: mika
Posted 2014-03-21 04:35:37 and read 30456 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 120):
can definitely make out the Malaysian logo on one of those pictures from the Satellite. I expected better quality pictures than that from a satellite costing millions. Have they purposely blurred these pictures?

I personally, as a complete layman i grant that, can't even say that it is an actual object. I would name those images "possible objects possibly related to the MH370 search" rather than "Objects possibly related to the MH370 search".

I assume that the one who called those as definitive objects did so with certainity, which to me is an impressive feat.

Anyways, have they been located physically to this point? Are they still in the area?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 04:36:19 and read 30322 times.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 123):

No it still got to that ping area which is very far how exactly do you get there without flying there. This is why having it stationary would have resulted in different pings (including the end one) and the end area would not even come close to getting near conspiracy land.

Your now twisting my words and fitting whatever is told to you to bend it to fit your conspiracy theory. I don't actually care about the cause just finding the plane, and stopping it from happening again. Random conspiracy theories don't help with that search and if they are so capable then there is no point and we should bow to their master plan........

The assumption of 7 hours makes sense because that is how far it got form the sat if it landed there is no way to get that far and not show up on the sat pings as a gap or a significant anomaly.

Once we get better ELT technology this type of event won't happen anymore and this type of run on random theory generator will also be averted in the future.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: flood
Posted 2014-03-21 04:36:30 and read 30626 times.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 123):
The demonstration that it is not stationary is because the "running assumption" is that it flew for 7 hours!!!!

"Engineers at Inmarsat Plc (ISAT), whose satellite picked up the pings, plotted seven positions for the Boeing Co. (BA) 777-200ER on March 8, Chris McLaughlin, a company spokesman, said in an interview. The plane flew steadily away from the satellite over the equator while pinging, McLaughlin said."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...over-ocean-inmarsat-estimates.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: NAV30
Posted 2014-03-21 04:37:05 and read 30596 times.

One can usually trust the Melbourne Age at least to move things back towards some sort of normality.

I said a few days ago that I couldn't readily envisage two active and successful career pilots concluding some sort of 'suicide pact' in order to sacrifice the lives of over 200 people, and their own lives, for no apparent reason. As the Age puts it:-

"The location of debris from the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 in the southern Indian Ocean would eliminate some of the wilder theories about what happened to the plane and would lean towards the likelihood of an emergency on the flight, an attempt by the crew to turn back and complications that caused them to fall into unconsciousness leaving the plane on a ghost flight until it ran out of fuel.

"While some sort of botched hijacking that led to the pilots being killed cannot be ruled out entirely, it seems very unlikely given the location of the possible wreckage. The hijack theory would have more credence if MH370 was located along the north-western flight path towards the Middle East. The trajectory might have even pointed to the political motivation.

"The location also seems to rule out the hijack theories, because there are no airports along the southern flight path.

"Far more plausible is the theory, favoured for days now by professional pilots on chat sites and blogs, that the pilots had an event on board that took out the communications and led to a slow or rapid decompression which rendered the crew incapable of making an emergency landing."


http://www.theage.com.au/national/mi...r-flight-mh370-20140320-35620.html

I stand by my view that the basic problem was some sort of mechanical fault which caused the sudden ascent, after take-off, to 45,000 feet. Which led to problems on the flight-deck, possibly including de-pressurisation and/or a fire. Which led, in turn, to the pilots turning back to Malaysia (heading a bit south of west) with a view to an emergency landing. But that they were unable to accomplish this, due to fire or fumes or whatever. Which left the aeroplane (flying on autopilot) continuing on a south-west course, into the trackless Pacific, until the fuel ran out; with no human pilots being in a position to intervene.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 04:38:23 and read 30600 times.

Quoting mika (Reply 124):
I personally, as a complete layman i grant that, can't even say that it is an actual object. I would name those images "possible objects possibly related to the MH370 search" rather than "Objects possibly related to the MH370 search".

I assume that the one who called those as definitive objects did so with certainity, which to me is an impressive feat.

Anyways, have they been located physically to this point? Are they still in the area?

I think your misquoting me a bit, that isn't my quote and the I must have broke the quote block on an edit I think. I don't see anything either but the multi-spectral might see something we can't.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Mir
Posted 2014-03-21 04:38:26 and read 30658 times.

Quoting enobar (Reply 115):
A quick scan of wiki says that PC3 Orion's aren't capable of aerial refuelling but are the P8's?

From earlier in the thread (probably a different number), the P8's have the necessary plumbing, but are not certified to do so.

-Mir

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: garpd
Posted 2014-03-21 04:39:12 and read 30676 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 120):
http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/images/DIGO_00718_01_14.jpg
http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/inciden...4.jpg

Ah those ones!

Sorry, I see nothing remotely resembling a logo on those images. I stared at them for an hour or so through the day when released.

I thought with people saying "I can see a logo" they were referring to different images.

Thank you for the links though.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-21 04:43:11 and read 30416 times.

Quoting flood (Reply 126):

erm, I'm not sure i get it... The only possible way the plane could have flown over the equator is if it headed south....

so why not exclude the north?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: rebr
Posted 2014-03-21 04:46:44 and read 30225 times.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 131):
erm, I'm not sure i get it... The only possible way the plane could have flown over the equator is if it headed south....

so why not exclude the north?

The article states "flew steadily away", they didn't say it crossed the equator

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 04:47:49 and read 30217 times.

Quoting flood (Reply 126):
"Engineers at Inmarsat Plc (ISAT), whose satellite picked up the pings, plotted seven positions for the Boeing Co. (BA) 777-200ER on March 8, Chris McLaughlin, a company spokesman, said in an interview. The plane flew steadily away from the satellite over the equator while pinging, McLaughlin said."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...over-ocean-inmarsat-estimates.html

Thank you, as I have been saying on repeat for ever they used all the data and they basically debunked a good bulk of the conspiracy theories about shadowing, landing, ... (But as usually with conspiracy theories you can't really stop them from bending any bit of information to fit) The media and people should stop going into sci-fi/fantasy theory land as it is generating news articles which will cause unfounded false hopes and further anguish with people who actually have family and relatives on the flight itself. They need closure and saying that terrorists or some evil government organization has kidnapped or otherwise stolen the plane isn't helping.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 131):
erm, I'm not sure i get it... The only possible way the plane could have flown over the equator is if it headed south....

so why not exclude the north?

Inmarsat only provides a distance from the sat (Which is over the equator) so when they say away the equator it is both north and south from what I understand. (It is pretty rough estimate too and is not like GPS in any way)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: mika
Posted 2014-03-21 04:50:02 and read 30031 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 128):

I think your misquoting me a bit, that isn't my quote and the I must have broke the quote block on an edit I think. I don't see anything either but the multi-spectral might see something we can't.

My appologies, it wasn't my intention!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 04:53:33 and read 29794 times.

Quoting mika (Reply 134):
My appologies, it wasn't my intention!

No problem. I should have caught the broken quote block within the edit window.

We will have to wait and see for the AMSA search they didn't find anything yet as per their latest updates but for a visual search in open ocean conditions I can see how it could take some time to complete with a good confidence. This process will take weeks potentially as the drift and accuracy of the final location is not firm.

Edit: And they still haven't had enough data to exclude the reduced northern area entirely.

[Edited 2014-03-21 04:55:04]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-21 04:55:06 and read 29726 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 133):
The plane flew steadily away from the satellite over the equator while pinging, McLaughlin said."
Quoting rebr (Reply 132):

sorry, there words used are confusing- the over the equator part could refer to either the plane or the satellite.

however, knowing that the satellite IS over the equator, means quite rightly the over must refer to satellite and away can only refer to the plane.

But you'd have to know where that satellite is. The average reader won't...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: P51Tang
Posted 2014-03-21 04:56:25 and read 29840 times.

My first post: And here's my take on MH370.

1/ Suicide Theory: Not a winner here,as the pilots were avid enthusiasts with immense pride and thrived on responsibility to the global community.If it was an act of (In command) suicide,that plane is going down on it's original flight path.That's what human training precipitates.

2/ Plane Malfunction: Switching ACARS off, is a sure sign that the plane is functioning correctly.

3/ Act of Terrorism/Hijacking: Two stolen Passports originating from Thailand.(Plausible rip-offs of the original passport holders identity) Two separate end destinations for two Iranian Nationals on-board the same flight.

It has to be said that number 3 is standing out like dogs balls.If I have a point to prove.I'm taking 200+ lives and running it into the deepest Trench within the fuel load capability of this man made machine.I have two options at my disposal.The Java Trench (7,725 metres) or the Diamantina Trench AKA: Diamantina Deep (7,299 m).

The Java Trench is far to close to land.Resources can be deployed within a major land mass.The Diamantina however is virtually straight-line from the original flightpath but in the opposite direction.Just within the fuel load range of the 777.Incredibly remote.Huge $$$ to investigate this one.Huge grief for the family's involved.No NTSB report within 2 years at least.

The debris located so far has drifted approx 1,000 km south of the Diamantina Trench.At a rate of 100 km per day over 10 days.That would seem plausible to me.

Question:

Why no ship sitting above the Diamantina Trench listening for the Black Box Beacon?.Which must be close to (I gave you everything I had) but you no try???.

My take.That's all.....

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: imagoagnitio
Posted 2014-03-21 04:57:16 and read 29673 times.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 126):

My thinking as well.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-21 04:58:39 and read 29604 times.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 130):
The only possible way the plane could have flown over the equator is if it headed south....

The satellite is "over the equator". Perhaps that's what they meant.

Edit: Ah, too slow!

[Edited 2014-03-21 04:59:35]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Mouldypete
Posted 2014-03-21 04:59:03 and read 29629 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 118):
I think in my opinion that the smart people at inmarsat who where the first ones to develop this method with the NTSB which already narrowed the search area already did that. They used all the data they have, we just see the results. (I'm amazed they can even get results as good as they show)(They call it the last ping because it is just that but that doesn't mean they ignored everything before)

To issue the satellite angular calculations for the other pings would do no harm IMO. The Inmarsat/NTSB collaboration discussed above seems very likely.

That the NTSB have issued a request for the Australians to search an area with the termination of two closely spaced NTSB tracks indicates that the NTSB is theorising that the A/C was flown in a straight path until it ran out of fuel sometime after the last ping at 8:11am. The southern extension of the search area being their take on the extreme range.

From this we can assume that their model has all of the ping calculations consistent with this flight path being straight and at a normal cruising speed.

If you look at the NW flight path, the relationship between the satellite angles and the pings would be very essentially the same.
http://img4.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb2.../mh370/images/9/9a/Final_map_2.jpg

Any start point you choose within the satellite range will have two solutions of identical straight paths to the 40 degree point but they will not be of the length of the maximum flight time nor will the pings indicate a normal cruising speed in all cases.

It is interesting to speculate what, if anything, the NTSB has done to request a search at the end of the other postulated flight track to the NW.

[Edited 2014-03-21 05:07:00]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: shortstack81
Posted 2014-03-21 05:01:57 and read 29683 times.

If you want to see Malaysia Airlines's logo in those images, you will. Many people experienced this going through the Tomnod images, and people experience this all the time with faces on mars and the moon and shapes in clouds, images of deities in toast and stains and other things, and the like.

It's pareildolia.

For me the images of the objects are too ill-defined to say what they are. I believe they're real but they could be trash (and really, my goodness, this incident has really revealed to me how dirty the oceans are!) or whales just below the surface or who knows. And I stared and stared hard at those images and have some limited experience with remote sensing. I can't tell what it is, but again, my experience is pretty limited.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 05:03:23 and read 29450 times.

Quoting P51Tang (Reply 136):
3/ Act of Terrorism/Hijacking: Two stolen Passports originating from Thailand.(Plausible rip-offs of the original passport holders identity) Two separate end destinations for two Iranian Nationals on-board the same flight.

International agencies actually found no link for the two stolen passport holders from terrorism/hijacking related concerns. It seems like it was just a case of illegal immigration and they actually where trying to reach their intended destinations from what I read.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26525281

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: imatams
Posted 2014-03-21 05:06:31 and read 29393 times.

The images released by AMSA give to images for both the object under investigation. One is panchromatic, the other 'multispectral'

-'Multispectral' means, I presume, that other data than visual imagery was included in the image. Can anyone explain?

-The multispectral image -to me- gives a much clearer outline of the object, showing an object that could be wing-shaped (or indeed box-shaped) The panchromatic image is much more blurry. Yet media seems to be showing mostly the latter image. Is the multispectral image less reliable?

-In the multispectral image there seems to be some kind of structure in a rough X shape attached to the main object (on the near side) Any indication of what that could be? If it is indeed a wing I imagine it could be part of the AC frame still attached, like fusalage spars or part of the wing box, but what else could it be?

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/images/DIGO_00718_01_14.jpg

Thanks!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: cand
Posted 2014-03-21 05:06:48 and read 29251 times.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 127):
I stand by my view that the basic problem was some sort of mechanical fault which caused the sudden ascent, after take-off, to 45,000 feet. Which led to problems on the flight-deck, possibly including de-pressurisation and/or a fire. Which led, in turn, to the pilots turning back to Malaysia (heading a bit south of west) with a view to an emergency landing. But that they were unable to accomplish this, due to fire or fumes or whatever. Which left the aeroplane (flying on autopilot) continuing on a south-west course, into the trackless Pacific, until the fuel ran out; with no human pilots being in a position to intervene.

So something like an explosion in the cockpit takes out the transponder, ACARS and radios and de-pressurizes the plane. Boeing should feel quite guilty if there is a common cause that can disable all communications in a plane capable of flying for another 7 hours.

And all that happens exactly in the two minutes between KUL ATC and HoChiMin ATC (Singapore ATC which is usually skipped).
More unexplained: why turn west? OK, maybe due to the initial failure. But then why turn NW? And later why turn S?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-21 05:07:14 and read 29271 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 125):
Your now twisting my words and fitting whatever is told to you to bend it to fit your conspiracy theory.

I really don't subscribe to any conspiracy theory and have nothing to prove. I just notice that you seem to be the only one fighting tooth and nails for not releasing the previous ping estimates to anyone outside the anointed investigative team. That is puzzling to me and I think to a number of others.

The Acting Transport Minister explained how the data was analyzed a couple of times. Then on March 14th the US and UK concurred. Great! But concurred on what? That the last position should be somewhere in the published corridors? Ok, everybody agrees at this point.

But my question remains. What are the available distance(ping) estimates and what is their margin of error? That should be very easy to answer since they have so thoroughly analyzed the available data, wouldn't you think?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 05:15:11 and read 28765 times.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 144):
Quoting flood (Reply 125):
"Engineers at Inmarsat Plc (ISAT), whose satellite picked up the pings, plotted seven positions for the Boeing Co. (BA) 777-200ER on March 8, Chris McLaughlin, a company spokesman, said in an interview. The plane flew steadily away from the satellite over the equator while pinging, McLaughlin said."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...over-ocean-inmarsat-estimates.html

See news article posted by flood. Many theories are dead. The end.

How about we talk about ELT modifications and the current search efforts in the southern sea. What do you see in the sat images. I don't see much but maybe the multi-spectral has more data than the flattened image.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: NAV30
Posted 2014-03-21 05:18:02 and read 28652 times.

Quoting cand (Reply 143):
More unexplained: why turn west? OK, maybe due to the initial failure. But then why turn NW?

If you look at a map of Malaya, cand, you'll see that the central airports are all at pretty high altitudes, surrounded by mountains, whereas the more northerly ones are pretty well at ground level.

Very possible that the captain decided to head for the lower ones - especially if, among other things, he had de-pressurisation issues to deal with?

[Edited 2014-03-21 05:20:06]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-21 05:31:23 and read 27646 times.

Quoting enobar (Reply 115):
A quick scan of wiki says that PC3 Orion's aren't capable of aerial refuelling but are the P8's?

They're designed for it, but it's not yet operational.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: dc9northwest
Posted 2014-03-21 05:33:17 and read 27492 times.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 146):
If you look at a map of Malaya, cand, you'll see that the central airports are all at pretty high altitudes, surrounded by mountains, whereas the more northerly ones are pretty well at ground level.

Very possible that the captain decided to head for the lower ones - especially if, among other things, he had de-pressurisation issues to deal with?

I think he means NW afterwards, when they were over the Strait of Malacca.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: DTW2HYD
Posted 2014-03-21 05:33:47 and read 27525 times.

One has to analyze all ping locations to get a holistic view.

Each ping has a different margin of error because of atmospheric conditions at that point in time. If all pings(considering margin of error) intersect at one general area, that implies plane didn't fly for 7+ hrs but just stayed in one location (let it be land or water).

Also one has to consider -59 minutes (to) +59 minutes fly time, because we don't know how long it flew after last known ping, we just don't have 9:11L ping.

My take, it is somewhere close Strait of Malacca. Knowing that initial search effort was a mess managed by Malaysia, it is possible they missed a grid or it is out of initial search area.

They should go back and review what areas they searched.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-21 05:34:55 and read 27565 times.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 146):
the more northerly ones are pretty well at ground level.

Hard to imagine an airport that isn't at ground level   

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Mouldypete
Posted 2014-03-21 05:36:22 and read 27795 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 145):
Quoting BackSeater (Reply 144):
Quoting flood (Reply 125):
"Engineers at Inmarsat Plc (ISAT), whose satellite picked up the pings, plotted seven positions for the Boeing Co. (BA) 777-200ER on March 8, Chris McLaughlin, a company spokesman, said in an interview. The plane flew steadily away from the satellite over the equator while pinging, McLaughlin said."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...over-ocean-inmarsat-estimates.html

See news article posted by flood. Many theories are dead. The end.

I do not understand.
Inmarsat have been most careful to explain that the calculations based on the pings can only indicate the angle between the geostationary satellite and the a/c.

So how do they know:
1. that the plane crossed the equator?
2. It was constantly flying away from the satellite?

The southerly track postulated by the NTSB has to indicate that the a/c was flying marginally towards the satellite for about the first 1000 miles from the last known radar position.
http://img4.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb2.../mh370/images/9/9a/Final_map_2.jpg

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: shortstack81
Posted 2014-03-21 05:40:52 and read 27512 times.

Quoting Mouldypete (Reply 151):
So how do they know:
1. that the plane crossed the equator?
2. It was constantly flying away from the satellite?

The word choice is poor. The Satellite is stationary over the equator. The sentence really should read "The airplane, while pinging, flew steadily away from the satellite WHICH is located over the equator."

[Edited 2014-03-21 05:42:02]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 05:42:52 and read 27406 times.

Quoting Mouldypete (Reply 151):

The sat is over the equator and what they are saying is that the plane moved away from the sat consistently until the pings stopped.

1) The sat only shows a circle so there is a north and south result (it did not tell it crossed or not as the plane was roughly at the equator when it went north or south)

2) It was travelling further away from the sat as the pings went on is what they said. The accuracy is not perfect and marginally travelled doesn't mean that will show up hence the large arcs.


Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 149):

Even ignoring the sat data and the pings primary radar from two sites and another country show the turn around occurred. The sat data is also consistent with this as well. While it would be great if it was in the shallow waters there it doesn't look like that is the case.

[Edited 2014-03-21 07:16:39 by SA7700]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: DTWPurserBoy
Posted 2014-03-21 05:57:25 and read 26449 times.

I have not had the time to read what has to be the longest continuing thred in a.net history. But I was wondering if MH had tried to call the plane with selcall?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: NAV30
Posted 2014-03-21 05:57:39 and read 26469 times.

Quoting dc9northwest (Reply 148):
I think he means NW afterwards, when they were over the Strait of Malacca.

You could well be right, dc9northwest.

But my basic point is that, by that time, most of the human beings on the aeroplane may very well have been dead or incapacitated.

So that the computers were flying the thing?

[Edited 2014-03-21 06:06:55]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 06:02:06 and read 26091 times.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 156):
You could well be right, northwest.

But my basic point is that, by that time, most of the human beings on the aeroplane may very well have been dead or incapacitated.

So that the computers were flying the thing?

Just wondering do planes have air quality sensors (CO, CO2, O2, RH%, Temp, Pressure) The last three I'm sure they monitor but the first three are less likely but CO, CO2 monitoring is pretty easy to do. (O2 is a bit harder).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-21 06:07:02 and read 25898 times.

Quoting flood (Reply 125):
The plane flew steadily away from the satellite over the equator while pinging, McLaughlin said."

Thank you the link to the Boomberg article.

Inmarsat is starting to comment and that's good.
I assume that the plane got steadily away from 3F1 only in the latter part of the flight since it would have gotten closer in the first part of the flight if we assume a direct flight from the Andaman Island to the current search area.

So, may be they'll be kind enough to continue commenting.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: bueb0g
Posted 2014-03-21 06:16:00 and read 25330 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 22):
However a 777 has FBW, so the control system would work to keep it in the attitude the pilots or autopilot left it. In a bank, it would keep banking, but it would maintain a constant bank angle which would neither converge nor diverge.

777 FBW roll control is essentially direct, so it doesn't maintain a bank angle like the 787 or the Airbus FBW a/c. It behaves like a cable driven craft.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 25):
The Helios flight may be an example, but I'm not sure.

A/P was on

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: jox
Posted 2014-03-21 06:16:42 and read 25369 times.

I fully agree with those of you that claims that all SATCOM pings are interesting. But I wonder if we actually have them here in this image (from Reply 238 in thread 38):



If you look at the dotted circle segments, marked with xx:11, they match both the hourly ping times as well as the same curvature as the satellite arch we all have been discussing.

I also remember seeing some brief picture of a similar map on BBC or CNN late wednesday night I think.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 06:21:32 and read 25068 times.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 159):
Inmarsat is starting to comment and that's good.
I assume that the plane got steadily away from 3F1 only in the latter part of the flight since it would have gotten closer in the first part of the flight if we assume a direct flight from the Andaman Island to the current search area.

So, may be they'll be kind enough to continue commenting.

Inmarsat provided a press release before the sat information was confirmed which was carefully worded as to not even say that the pings lead anywhere (at the time they neither confirmed the time nor location estimate even existed)

Shortly after governments confirmed the initial turnback they further refined it to produce the last ping arcs using all the data they had at the point.

To date in partnership with various other government agencies they refined the estimates narrowing the search area to a more manageable size while still seeking more data from primary radar sources which could help refine the estimate greatly.

This is pretty much the inmarsat timeline. Overall their communication and involvement to me appears to be excellent and they even flew experts to Malaysia and did pretty good interviews with major news agencies to try and keep speculation down to a minimum. If anything inmarsat didn't even need to get involved and it was the skill and extra effort of their own staff who revealed this additional method of tracking which without it the search would be basically impossible.

So in my view they were commenting as fast as they could without leading to any excess confusion which is a very good thing in my books.


Quoting jox (Reply 161):

Sure does look like all the points are there. Still results in the same end area as expected. And it does just generate a wedge. (Good way of plotting it so no one gets confused)

[Edited 2014-03-21 07:19:22 by SA7700]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: lnglive1011yyz
Posted 2014-03-21 06:26:43 and read 24617 times.

Quoting jox (Reply 161):
fully agree with those of you that claims that all SATCOM pings are interesting. But I wonder if we actually have them here in this image (from Reply 238 in thread 38):

The image you quoted made me think..

Apart from the fact that they knew there were 2 possible tracks the plane could have gone, why would we be searching to the south, when the last-known radar track and waypoint it was heading towards was tracking to the north-west? Why wouldn't we focus our time and attention more to the north-west? Is it geopolitical at this point? (ie, unfriendlies unwilling to let us search over their land?)

I suppose they are just ruling out the south, but.. if you're searching for someone in the woods, and you have a track of them heading in one direction, logic dictates you'd naturally go in the direction the tracks were headed?

Have they concretely come out and said the last known radar hit was tracking to the north-west? Or have they just said it was a hit on the radar?

(Sorry if any of this has been covered - i've been trying to keep up and have been reading rcair's sanity checks..)

1011yyz

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-21 06:27:40 and read 24668 times.

Straight to the South Pole? Can stupid coordinates be entered into a FMS?

Just a thought:
What puzzles me is that if you extrapolate a direct track from the Andaman islands to the debris area, you end up at or very close to the south Pole.

I am sure that data entry into a FMS is thoroughly checked for validity. Of course any pilot would catch an error easily.
But let us assume for a moment that someone other than a trained pilot is trying to enter something into the FMS.

I also assume that besides predefined waypoints you could enter raw coordinates. If that assumption is correct:
- what kinds of checks are performed on the entered coordinates?
- Is there such a thing as "undefined" within the software (e.g. outside the map -90N, 0E)?
- can you press Execute after an uncorrected data entry?
- can you think of any other screwy combination of keystrokes and/or buttons?

Of course, I would think that is impossible because it should, but maybe some FMS experts can completely rule out that possibility.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: wingz
Posted 2014-03-21 06:27:57 and read 24600 times.

If we assume pilot, or autopilot heading, input stops, then from replies earlier in this thread it seems clear we fall back on the FBW to maintain directional stability. In particular it looks like it will maintain a bank angle. That bank angle may be very small indeed, resulting in a flightpath comprising continuous very large circles. Any circling would hugely impact the potential range that could be covered. It would be interesting to know what error level is likely on the distance estimates from the pings analysis, and whether this would allow the footprint of notional circling flight to be detected. Even with a low distance error level, 1 ping per hour does present a potential aliasing problem for the data analysis. So those intermediate pings could be very important. But I guess Inmarsat will have done this.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 06:29:34 and read 24455 times.

Quoting lnglive1011yyz (Reply 164):

They are also doing searches in the north and trying to get radar data analysed but that too takes time and it is probably logical to just go in parallel anyways. Each country involved usually would do their own internal search as there are issues geopolitically.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Mouldypete
Posted 2014-03-21 06:29:39 and read 24573 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 153):

The sat is over the equator and what they are saying is that the plane moved away from the sat consistently until the pings stopped.

1) The sat only shows a circle so there is a north and south result (it did not tell it crossed or not as the plane was roughly at the equator when it went north or south)

2) It was travelling further away from the sat as the pings went on is what they said. The accuracy is not perfect and marginally travelled doesn't mean that will show up hence the large arcs.

Sorry but I'm still not understanding.

The last known radar position of the a/c is "roughly" 700 miles north of the equator.
The track postulated by the NTSB starts at an angle to the satellite of approximately 52.5 degrees from the satellite and flies towards the satellite until the angle increases to 56.5 degrees before is starts to drop off to the 40 degree arc. If the ping calculation error is as much as 4 degrees each way, then the search area needed is many times larger than that suggested by the NTSB.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 06:32:13 and read 24266 times.

Quoting wingz (Reply 166):

They already stated to the media that it moved consistently outward and if it was doing circles the final ping would be far closer to the top of the arc's defined (even if there was aliasing) from what I gather they are also doing searches there it is just outside Australia's responsibility.

Quoting Mouldypete (Reply 168):

I don't have the raw data and the NTSB does so we would be guessing why the NTSB can narrow it down more than we can. But one could guess that it has to do with keeping things simply worded (generally moved away from the sat) and having the actual radar+sat data to build the track off of where they can still see the coming towards and away. In addition they also use an accurate fuel load to generate the tracks.

[Edited 2014-03-21 07:20:55 by SA7700]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: asetiadi
Posted 2014-03-21 06:41:26 and read 23733 times.

Let's say this is not a pilot suicide / hijack attempt. Is there any possibility things like improper take off configuration, missed steps, anything that are needed for plane to take off safely that could be forgotten ? Any complaint regarding the plane itself from the previous pilot who flown that plane? Do we all know about this?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: jox
Posted 2014-03-21 06:42:48 and read 23611 times.

If you look at the positions in the map I linked above, the positions agree with:

* Gradually moved away from the Satellite
* Constant speed
* Straight course

Maybe the two different paths (that widens as they go south/north from the starting point) could match the different distance from the Sat if the plane was on FL300 (or so) or at sea/ground level?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 06:46:12 and read 23290 times.

Quoting jox (Reply 172):
Maybe the two different paths (that widens as they go south/north from the starting point) could match the different distance from the Sat if the plane was on FL300 (or so) or at sea/ground level?

Not quite sure if the plane could travel that far at sea/ground level (planes don't really fly that low).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: zeke
Posted 2014-03-21 06:46:55 and read 23359 times.

Quoting Mouldypete (Reply 151):
Inmarsat have been most careful to explain that the calculations based on the pings can only indicate the angle between the geostationary satellite and the a/c.

I do not believe that to be the case, I have not seen them say the calculations were angle based, I actuality understood it to be time of flight based. That time of flight can them be calculated as a distance from the satellite, which translates to arc over the earths surface.

If it was angle based, they should know if it was heading north or south, where range gives two solutions.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-21 06:50:46 and read 23091 times.

Quoting jox (Reply 161):
I fully agree with those of you that claims that all SATCOM pings are interesting. But I wonder if we actually have them here in this image (from Reply 238 in thread 38):

Thanks for reposting that. I have not seen this image before. It is in fact exactly what we've been talking about, and hoping to see.

It also explains the claim from Inmarsat that "The plane flew steadily away from the satellite".

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: jox
Posted 2014-03-21 06:52:12 and read 22926 times.

Quoting zeke (Reply 174):
I do not believe that to be the case, I have not seen them say the calculations were angle based, I actuality understood it to be time of flight based. That time of flight can them be calculated as a distance from the satellite, which translates to arc over the earths surface.

My understanding is that Inmarsat has said 2 things.

a) It is "angle based" only to that extent that it is only ONE of their satellites that has picked up signals from the plane. I.e. it has to be within an angle that no of their other sats also covers.

b) The radius of the "arc" is based not on angle, but on transmission time of the signal (time between the signal is sent from the sat until the answer from the plane comes back - divided by 2).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-21 06:54:48 and read 22971 times.

Inmarsat seems certain that the plane is in the Southern Indian Ocean.


Inmarsat, the maker of satellites, told ABC News that they had an "initial idea" on March 9 and by March 10 were "fairly certain" that the search parties should look in the south Indian Ocean for the vanished plane.

http://gma.yahoo.com/satellite-compa...24715287--abc-news-topstories.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 06:56:56 and read 22671 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 175):
Thanks for reposting that. I have not seen this image before. It is in fact exactly what we've been talking about, and hoping to see.

It also explains the claim from Inmarsat that "The plane flew steadily away from the satellite".

It actually was posted before in earlier threads. And as stated before it doesn't change the end area and does just draw a wedge (Which the NTSB narrowed to a tight wedge using their own refinements so were not actually seeing the full fat wedge because that would look confusing)

[Edited 2014-03-21 06:57:08]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-21 07:03:29 and read 22242 times.

Quoting jox (Reply 176):
It is "angle based" only to that extent that it is only ONE of their satellites that has picked up signals from the plane. I.e. it has to be within an angle that no of their other sats also covers.

The IOR satellite coverage actually is overlapped by one of the POR's coverage to the east and one of the AOR's coverage to the west. The fact that there is an overlap but that the other two satellites did not detect the last "ping" is what they used to construct the two arcs.

[Edited 2014-03-21 07:13:31]


Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 177):
Inmarsat, the maker of satellites, told ABC News that they had an "initial idea" on March 9 and by March 10 were "fairly certain" that the search parties should look in the south Indian Ocean for the vanished plane.

It sounds to me like the Inmarsat data created the two arcs, one to the north and one to the south, and when that was combined with other data (primary radar coverage?) it tended to point to the southern arc.


[Edited 2014-03-21 07:25:23 by SA7700]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-21 07:10:30 and read 22396 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 130):
Quoting tomlee (Reply 120):http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/images/DIGO_00718_01_14.jpghttp://www.amsa.gov.au/media/inciden...4.jpgAh those ones! Sorry, I see nothing remotely resembling a logo on those images. I stared at them for an hour or so through the day when released.I thought with people saying "I can see a logo" they were referring to different images. Thank you for the links though.

I have spoken with someone who has seen high quality images that show the so called "debris field" much more clearly than the images released. The images he has seen will never be released because the owner of the "equipment" that produced the images do not want to demonstrate their true capabilities - standard national security stuff.

I can also tell you that he felt that the size and shape was consistent with a floating shipping container, in his opinion.


Quoting hivue (Reply 181):
It sounds to me like the Inmarsat data created the two arcs, one to the north and one to the south, and when that was combined with other data (primary radar coverage?) it tended to point to the southern arc.

If you look down the left hand side of the image re-posted recently (the one with the ping rings) you'll see the description of why the southern route is favoured. Its purely based on the fact that there is a higher chance of evading primary radar and cell phone coverage along the southern route.

The planes last known heading actually favours the northern route, so it's impossible to know for sure at this point.

[Edited 2014-03-21 07:39:29 by SA7700]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 07:17:30 and read 21806 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 182):

The images are from DigitalGlobe which is a commercial sat imaging company. If you have the money you can buy the highest quality images they can produce. I don't think they are allowed to fly with classified imaging systems on a commercial for profit sat. Although maybe there is a higher res shot of the same area but I don't think Digitalglobe (tomnod) is flying around with top secret cameras and stuff.

I just hope they can find whatever was in the sat images so we can either confirm the southern area so everything gets focused or keep looking in both areas till something else turns up.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: PanAmPaul
Posted 2014-03-21 07:21:27 and read 21446 times.

i'm sure a lot of what's in this article is known to folks here but I found an interesting look on fight data recorders and learned a bit more about them.

Flight Data Recorder Will Hold Key to the Mysteries of MH370

Quote:
Once locating the missing plane that operated Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has been accomplished, the mystery of what happened may only have begun.

If the Australian-led search in the southern Indian Ocean turns up the missing plane, authorities will most likely be able to piece a few pieces of the puzzle together, such as whether there was an explosion or fire in the cabin or whether the aircraft broke up before hitting the water.

Many questions, however, won’t get answered immediately if at all. ...

.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-21 07:22:37 and read 21331 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 184):
The images are from DigitalGlobe which is a commercial sat imaging company.

I suspect my contact was not referring to the actual Digital Globe images, but instead has seen higher quality versions of the same area at the same time from a military or intelligence source.

[Edited 2014-03-21 07:27:03]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-21 07:22:55 and read 21310 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 182):
Its purely based on the fact that there is a higher chance of evading primary radar and cell phone coverage along the southern route.

Thanks. That would tend to suggest the plane was purposely flown south rather than just being some sort of ghost flight with everyone on board unconscious.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-21 07:24:26 and read 21341 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 172):
Thanks for reposting that. I have not seen this image before. It is in fact exactly what we've been talking about, and hoping to see.

Hey guys: reality check time. The dotted red arcs in that image are not from published INMARSAT data. They are assumptions by whichever organization created that map based on published NTSB tracks and the published last-ping arcs. It says so right in the legend.

They are not the data that was used to create the tracks. They are the data we can infer was used to create the tracks.

Please try to pay attention.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 07:32:39 and read 20705 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 184):

It is usually pretty easy to work backwards from an answer once someone gives you the solved solution and a number of hints. So not really the raw data (wasn't expecting them to release that) but it can be inferred the raw data would look something similar to that due to the provided NTSB data and the end arc.

They still do represent the general idea pretty well even if not the actual data. I doubt any media group/person has anything more than what we can see online published from the various government organizations.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: DTW2HYD
Posted 2014-03-21 07:33:05 and read 20788 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 181):
The images are from DigitalGlobe which is a commercial sat imaging company. If you have the money you can buy the highest quality images they can produce. I don't think they are allowed to fly with classified imaging systems on a commercial for profit sat. Although maybe there is a higher res shot of the same area but I don't think Digitalglobe (tomnod) is flying around with top secret cameras and stuff.

Actually DigitalGlobe is allowed to take images above commercial grade resolution, but can sell those only to US Military, 50cm is the cutoff. They have two sats one with 46cm another with 25cm. NRO didn't launch enough satellites recently so this mitigates the gap.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-21 07:38:43 and read 20383 times.

Quoting PanAmPaul (Reply 181):

If it was a hijack/suicide, and things were deliberately turned off, it could be that the DFDR was disabled.

The speculated fire that took out the comms, may have taken out the DFDR as well, but it should still have helpful data.

If it was a mechanical failure, then the DFDR should tell us a lot.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 07:39:41 and read 20348 times.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 186):
Actually DigitalGlobe is allowed to take images above commercial grade resolution, but can sell those only to US Military, 50cm is the cutoff. They have two sats one with 46cm another with 25cm. NRO didn't launch enough satellites recently so this mitigates the gap.

Technically they are only really being capped by regulation and that is probably going to move with international competition. They still are not carrying any classified imaging hardware or military assets on their sats. It is just their commercial camera is better than the US is currently comfortable with. They do intend to sell 25cm images if their lobby is successful. I didn't really see any link to the NRO as their sats in the same articles claim to have 10cm resolutions.

Google would really like all the image as they get planes to overfly to get way higher resolution images. (They even lidar scan entire areas by plane, car, person)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Razza74
Posted 2014-03-21 07:40:26 and read 20294 times.

Going to try and get up near to RAAF Pearce this weekend with RAAF, RNZAF and JSDF Orions, not something you would see everyday here in Perth

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-21 07:41:23 and read 20278 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 184):
It is usually pretty easy to work backwards from an answer once someone gives you the solved solution

You can hand-wave away the fact that you have to make a lot of assumptions to generate that data, but it doesn't make it any more accurate.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-21 07:43:49 and read 20179 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 181):
It sounds to me like the Inmarsat data created the two arcs, one to the north and one to the south, and when that was combined with other data (primary radar coverage?) it tended to point to the southern arc.

If you look down the left hand side of the image re-posted recently (the one with the ping rings) you'll see the description of why the southern route is favoured. Its purely based on the fact that there is a higher chance of evading primary radar and cell phone coverage along the southern route.

The planes last known heading actually favours the northern route, so it's impossible to know for sure at this point.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 07:46:05 and read 19883 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 188):
You can hand-wave away the fact that you have to make a lot of assumptions to generate that data, but it doesn't make it any more accurate.

Not sure where I said it was accurate just representative. And the estimated end area the NTSB provides is just that an estimate. That too may not be accurate but the representative figure still illustrates the idea without actually being accurate or using raw data.

Quoting GZed (Reply 192):
Are you talking about this image rcair1? This one seems to show the earlier pings:

If you note the gray text it is just a well put together user image that is a good representation of what the intermediate pings might look like. (Look at the light gray text and how it says it is all representative)

[Edited 2014-03-21 07:56:51]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: rcair1
Posted 2014-03-21 07:47:30 and read 19980 times.

Quoting imatams (Reply 143):
-'Multispectral' means, I presume, that other data than visual imagery was included in the image. Can anyone explain?

A color camera can also be considered multispectral.
There are 2 images - panchromatic which means it has no spectral information other than what the sensor inherently detects. This can include frequencies in the non-visible part of the spectral.
Multi-spectral - in the general sense - means you have both intensity and wavelength information for each pixel. That can be captured directly - like happens in a 3 sensor video camera, or some of it can be estimated - like what happens in an color digital camera using a CFA (color filter array).
In the limit - spectral images mean you have the full spectrum for each pixel. Spectral images are huge.

From a laymans sense, you can think of the panchromatic as a black and white image, the multispectral as a color image, except the concept of black and white and color are really artifacts of how the human visual system interprets the spectrum.

Quoting jox (Reply 160):
I also remember seeing some brief picture of a similar map on BBC or CNN late wednesday night I think.

The map quoted does not show the earlier pings - it shows the locus of there they would have to be if the a/c flew a direct course from the last known radar position to the 'last ping' locus assuming a given speed and endurance.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-21 07:54:44 and read 19536 times.

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 191):
The map quoted does not show the earlier pings - it shows the locus of there they would have to be if the a/c flew a direct course from the last known radar position to the 'last ping' locus assuming a given speed and endurance.


Are you talking about this image rcair1? This one seems to show the earlier pings:

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-21 07:59:06 and read 19138 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 192):
Are you talking about this image rcair1? This one seems to show the earlier pings:

It does not. It *seems* to show them, but indeed it does not. That is where the pings "would have to have been" to generate the track that the NTSB did.

The arcs INMARSAT staff plotted for the NTSB have not been released other than the last one. This is not them.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-21 08:00:20 and read 19023 times.

Quote:
The engineers at Inmarsat were able to validate their estimates of the plane’s location by matching its position at 1:07 a.m., when it sent a burst of data through its Aircraft Communications and Reporting System, McLaughlin said. That final transmission on Acars included a GPS position that was used to calibrate the other estimates, he said.

Would this match be with the 1:11 ping?

Seems like Inmarsat has reason to be certain of where 9M-MRO went. Even early in the flight.

[Edited 2014-03-21 08:01:02]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: airbazar
Posted 2014-03-21 08:01:19 and read 19067 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 178):
The images are from DigitalGlobe which is a commercial sat imaging company. If you have the money you can buy the highest quality images they can produce. I don't think they are allowed to fly with classified imaging systems on a commercial for profit sat. Although maybe there is a higher res shot of the same area but I don't think Digitalglobe (tomnod) is flying around with top secret cameras and stuff.

If it's top secret, we'll never know exactly what it is that they have or don't have  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-21 08:01:41 and read 19005 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 192):
This one seems to show the earlier pings:

As explained before and on the legend of the image: "Satellite ping distance arcs" / "Example based on NTSB high probability tracks".

The author shows how the earlier ping rings could have been.

We don't even have solid knowledge that the data related to earlier pings is stored by Inmarsat.

Regarding another topic: if Inmarsat says that the ping "arc" is angle-based, it might be that they are using antenna angle, not time-of-flight, for radius estimation. I don't know how they would be able to derive antenna angle, though.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-21 08:04:20 and read 18761 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 192):
This one seems to show the earlier pings:

Those "earlier pings" on the map are labeled "Example based on NTSB high probability tracks." They're examples, not real ping data.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-21 08:06:27 and read 18709 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 196):
We don't even have solid knowledge that the data related to earlier pings is stored by Inmarsat.

We do, an Inmarsat employee said on the record that they plotted 7 of the pings for investigators. It was in a news article quoted somewhere upthread or in a previous thread. They have gone on record with that, though.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-21 08:09:57 and read 18523 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 197):
Those "earlier pings" on the map are labeled "Example based on NTSB high probability tracks." They're examples, not real ping data.

I see. Well that's ridiculous. Why even include them if they are just made up lines based on the theory of straight line flight?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-21 08:12:38 and read 18330 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 199):
I see. Well that's ridiculous. Why even include them if they are just made up lines based on the theory of straight line flight?

To give people a visual example of how the final data was calculated. As evidenced in this thread, many people have difficulties understanding what these arcs represent.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 08:12:56 and read 18352 times.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 195):
If it's top secret, we'll never know exactly what it is that they have or don't have

Strange why do we know about the obviously NRO military 10cm resolving cameras which DigitalGlobe doesn't have. I'm sure there is some super secret stuff but I doubt you want that to fly on a commercial sat where someone might swipe it or take a peek at something they are not supposed to see. (That would be bad for keeping a secret although the US isn't very good at doing that lately) Although it is true we wouldn't know but I doubt DigitalGlobe would get to use it for their commercial branded side of things. (That would be a pretty killer deal, don't pay for it, get to use classified tech to improve your commercial venture)

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 194):
Would this match be with the 1:11 ping?

Seems like Inmarsat has reason to be certain of where 9M-MRO went. Even early in the flight.

Never heard about the calibration thing before. Also I like this note from the same article you posted,

Quote:

If the Inmarsat estimates are accurate, it would have been impossible for the plane to have landed before its satellite transmitter sent the final ping at 8:11 a.m., almost seven hours after its last known position as it left Malaysian airspace, according to McLaughlin’s account. Because the 777 burns more fuel at lower altitude, it also suggests the plane remained at cruising altitude.

Which is why I've been saying if the plane shadowed another plane or did a nap of the earth type tactic it wouldn't jive with the sat ping data they see.

Quoting GZed (Reply 199):
I see. Well that's ridiculous. Why even include them if they are just made up lines based on the theory of straight line flight?

Because as the quote from the news article if they didn't fly in a direct path they wouldn't have made it to the known last ping arc. So it is a good illustrative diagram of what the intermediate points might look like if we knew them (not much different).

Quoting jox (Reply 202):
But surely NTSB has access to all the real data from Inmarsat. Which makes them more than just an "example". Since we don't actually know where the plane went, everything is more or less educated guessing, but I would say that NTSB can make more educated guesses than most of us here. If they say (based on the non-public data) that the plane went away from the satellite at a certain speed (constant or not), in a pattern that best matches those hourly "example" points - I am tending to believe that they are fairly certain. Of course there exist a similar path facing north, but that's not the point here.

If the plane flew on another (straight) track - still matching the "away from the sat at this speed", it would have had to fly ridiculously slow (and obviously not end up at the point they are searching now).

Except there is a difference between the NTSB plotting the intermediate points (Which they probably did internally) and the user who made that image based on the end results of the NTSB high probability plot. The end result would probably look almost the same except there is no actual raw data being plotted in the diagram the user made and it just draws where the intermediate points would be.

The shorter distant to the arc parts represent the slower flying part. (And I don't think they calculated the velocity from the pings but the early part of the arc represents that slow flying option)

The arcs can be highly confusing but all you need to know is that where the red line is drawn represents the min/max cruising speed with the fuel quantity to end up on the right position the sat reported at the last ping. (I think I got that right maybe...)

[Edited 2014-03-21 08:19:46]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: jox
Posted 2014-03-21 08:14:11 and read 18447 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 197):
Those "earlier pings" on the map are labeled "Example based on NTSB high probability tracks." They're examples, not real ping data.

But surely NTSB has access to all the real data from Inmarsat. Which makes them more than just an "example". Since we don't actually know where the plane went, everything is more or less educated guessing, but I would say that NTSB can make more educated guesses than most of us here. If they say (based on the non-public data) that the plane went away from the satellite at a certain speed (constant or not), in a pattern that best matches those hourly "example" points - I am tending to believe that they are fairly certain. Of course there exist a similar path facing north, but that's not the point here.

If the plane flew on another (straight) track - still matching the "away from the sat at this speed", it would have had to fly ridiculously slow (and obviously not end up at the point they are searching now).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-21 08:19:14 and read 18293 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 198):
We do, an Inmarsat employee said on the record that they plotted 7 of the pings for investigators. It was in a news article quoted somewhere upthread or in a previous thread. They have gone on record with that, though.

This seems to be the best source, Fox interview of an Inmarsat Senior Vice President quoted earlier:
http://nation.foxnews.com/2014/03/20...-could-help-find-malaysia-airliner

He confirms that there were 7 pings, one each hour on average (I wonder why he says on average) and the 8th ping is missing.

He doesn't confirm that they plotted 7 of the pings.

Quoting jox (Reply 202):
But surely NTSB has access to all the real data from Inmarsat. Which makes them more than just an "example".

The chart is not an NTSB chart.

[Edited 2014-03-21 08:20:36]

[Edited 2014-03-21 08:40:53]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: jox
Posted 2014-03-21 08:23:22 and read 17905 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 203):
The chart is not an NTSB chart.

No, but it is "Based on NTSB high probability tracks" - which was my point.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-21 08:23:25 and read 17975 times.

Inmarsat apparently matched the first two pings with ACARS and primary radar data as a calibration and validation. They would have been the 1:11 and 2:11 pings.

[Edited 2014-03-21 08:24:07]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-21 08:26:20 and read 17872 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 203):
He confirms that there were 7 pings each hour on average (I wonder why he says on average) and the 8th ping is missing.

He doesn't confirm that they plotted 7 of the pings.

Here, Bloomberg does: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...over-ocean-inmarsat-estimates.html

Quote:
Engineers at Inmarsat Plc, whose satellite picked up the pings, plotted seven positions for the Boeing Co. 777-200ER on March 8, Chris McLaughlin, a company spokesman, said in an interview. The plane flew steadily away from the satellite over the equator while pinging, McLaughlin said.

There was confusion about "over the equator" in this thread, but clearly the author meant the satellite is over the equator (as it is geostationary)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-21 08:28:27 and read 17610 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 201):
Because as the quote from the news article if they didn't fly in a direct path they wouldn't have made it to the known last ping arc. So it is a good illustrative diagram of what the intermediate points might look like if we knew them (not much different).

Why do you keep suggesting that deviations from straight flight are not possible because it would result in the plane not having enough fuel to make it to "the last know ping arc"? You've mentioned something like this 3 or 4 times, incorrectly. You seem to summarize that the plane must have flown straight because otherwise if would not have had enough fuel to make it to the estimated end point along the arc.

In actual fact its their assumption that it flew in a straight line that results in their final location guesstimate. If it didn't fly in a straight line then it could have ended up anywhere along the red line by 8:11am.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-21 08:28:54 and read 17641 times.

There was a 1:07 ACARS gps position to be matched with a 1:11 ping, and a 2:15 primary radar position to be matched with a 2:11 ping, I think.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: zeke
Posted 2014-03-21 08:29:59 and read 17614 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 176):
The IOR satellite coverage actually is overlapped by one of the POR's coverage to the east and one of the AOR's coverage to the west. The fact that there is an overlap but that the other two satellites did not detect the last "ping" is what they used to construct the two arcs.

SITA have defined coverage maps for the ACARS network, the on aircraft system takes the aircrafts current position from the IRS and that determines from a lookup table what VHF/HF frequency to tune to, and what satellite to point to. Often when starting aircraft up cold without the IRS aligned, you will not have a satellite connection.

I am not surprised pings were not received by two satellites, as the aircrafts antenna is only pointed at one satellite.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Mouldypete
Posted 2014-03-21 08:32:00 and read 17465 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 205):
Inmarsat apparently matched the first two pings with ACARS and primary radar data as a calibration and validation. They would have been the 1:11 and 2:11 pings.

Presumably the 1:11am ping back correlated to the 1:07 ACARS message giving location, heading, speed etc. travelling on the correct track to PEK and the 2:11am ping, four minutes before the MH370 left radar coverage whilst it was heading NW?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-21 08:34:05 and read 17341 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 206):
Here, Bloomberg does: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0....html

Thanks, that nails it down. There are 7 plots.

I found also a Daily Telegraph article, that clearly talks about the timing of the signals, suggesting time-of-flight type of distance measurement:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...ow-it-could-have-been-avoided.html

Quote:
Fortunately, however, the Classic Aero system also includes another terminal which operates independently of the switches in the cockpit, and 'pings' Inmarsat's network at regular intervals to synchronise timing information. This terminal plays no role in transmitting ACARS data, and simply serves to keep the connection to the network alive. But there is no way that it can be switched off unless the plane itself loses power, according to Inmarsat.

The company’s engineers discovered that the Classic Aero terminal on flight MH370 continued to ping the network for at least five hours after the aircraft left Malaysian airspace, and that, during that time, the distance travelled by the pings was increasing, indicating that the aircraft was still moving.

"The timing of the messages indicates that a plane is moving, but it’s a one-dimensional fix. So you cannot deduce immediately its position or anything like that. But the timing of the messages can give you clues as to its movement," said Pinto.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-21 08:35:14 and read 17287 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 207):
Why do you keep suggesting that deviations from straight flight are not possible because it would result in the plane not having enough fuel to make it to "the last know ping arc"? You've mentioned something like this 3 or 4 times, incorrectly.

I agree. Technically they could have flown in circles for hours and then intersected the 0811L arc fairly close to Malaysia. But this does not agree with the INMARSAT statement that the aircraft was flying away from the satellite the entire time. By calculating a straight-line distance between arcs, it is possible to calculate a straight-line speed. If that speed varies between pings, you can assume they either slowed down/sped up on purpose or that they made course changes. If that speed is constant, you can assume they are flying in a straight line, or making the exact same course changes each time between pings, which is unlikely.

So, if the data points to a constant speed, then a straight shot from the last radar contact with the fuel range in mind is the most plausible scenario to examine. This does not take their altitude into account as it is unknown, or any other factors that might affect range - so there are truly very many possibilities still left to explore, if this comes up empty.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-21 08:36:35 and read 17190 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 203):
He confirms that there were 7 pings each hour on average

7 pings, one per hour (on average) I believe. No 8th ping. He concludes from that that the plane flew for 7+ hours and then ran out of fuel. That may be stretching what can be inferred from the data.

[Edited 2014-03-21 08:39:40]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: cand
Posted 2014-03-21 08:40:20 and read 16855 times.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 156):
So that the computers were flying the thing?

Indeed, I meant the subsequent turns at VAMPI and at (or after) IGREX to some north or south destination. If a/p was flying the plane, it was blindly following the waypoints. But why program them in the first place? If they had mechanical/electrical trouble after IGARI, the normal reaction is to turn back to KUL, not program these waypoints taking them nowhere.

I was reading about the 777: It has 3 VHF units, 2 HF units, 1 SATCOM, 3 panels to control them. Plus ACARS and ADS. All these are powered from 4 DC busses, which are powered from 2 inter-changable AC busses. From all these, when both main alternators and the APU-driven generator fail, the one to shed is the SATCOM. So how come we still have SATCOM working and none of the others?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 08:40:50 and read 16905 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 207):
Why do you keep suggesting that deviations from straight flight are not possible because it would result in the plane not having enough fuel to make it to "the last know ping arc"? You've mentioned something like this 3 or 4 times, incorrectly. You seem to summarize that the plane must have flown straight because otherwise if would not have had enough fuel to make it to the estimated end point along the arc.

In actual fact its their assumption that it flew in a straight line that results in their final location guesstimate. If it didn't fly in a straight line then it could have ended up anywhere along the red line by 8:11am.

The entire red line uses a basically direct flight assumption just one at the minimum speed and another at the maximum speed. If you make a significant deviation from a direct at cruise altitude flight (say trying to hide from radar by flying nap of the earth style or shadowing another plane and following it off to the west and then turning back to the east) it wouldn't be possible to reach the line at any point. (Near the short end you could in theory fly past it a maximum speed and then turn back but you would still have to end up somewhere on the line)

Your getting confused by the lines and my discussion about the beyond the red arc north west conspiracy theories, if you do a crazy zig zag or land on the ground there is no way to reach the same arc in the areas discussed. Some deviations are allowed and it depends on where your looking at but at the furthest point on the arc you must travel in a mostly direct path as there isn't enough fuel to do anything else. (The parts of the arc where the distance to the last known point is short has more room for crazy manoeuvres but luckily those are well away from any conspiracy theories)

Or to make things simpler if you want to end up in the last ping area's furthest point from the start you must travel in a direct path. If you want to land on the arc at any point before this furthest point your limited by the same length cord to the outermost point and can draw whatever line you like provided it doesn't exceed the length (fuel of the plane) and still lands on the arc. (Sorry for any confusion but you have to be very direct when dealing with illogical conspiracy theories which are not even inside the red end ping area)

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 212):
I agree. Technically they could have flown in circles for hours and then intersected the 0811L arc fairly close to Malaysia. But this does not agree with the INMARSAT statement that the aircraft was flying away from the satellite the entire time. By calculating a straight-line distance between arcs, it is possible to calculate a straight-line speed. If that speed varies between pings, you can assume they either slowed down/sped up on purpose or that they made course changes. If that speed is constant, you can assume they are flying in a straight line, or making the exact same course changes each time between pings, which is unlikely.

So, if the data points to a constant speed, then a straight shot from the last radar contact with the fuel range in mind is the most plausible scenario to examine. This does not take their altitude into account as it is unknown, or any other factors that might affect range - so there are truly very many possibilities still left to explore, if this comes up empty.

I think I got a bit fed up with the far north west theories and lopped off a bunch of pre-conditions I used to say because they get distorted in all the wrong ways. Only the furthest points on the arc from the start require a direct path. Anything shorter allows for increasing amounts of wiggle room. The plane still has to end up on the arc by the end and it is unlikely it could fly close to the earth/water, land in a hidden airfield, or shadow another airliner off into the far west and still make it to the arc.

Although as we know inmarsat shows it moving fairly constantly so any major deviations would have been seen and circling is isn't going to produce a consistent distance/speed away from the sat. Anything other than a normal cruise would reduce efficiency and tighten the search to the near areas. (Which is well away from all the conspiracy landing sites and the such)

[Edited 2014-03-21 08:49:30]



Quoting cand (Reply 214):
I was reading about the 777: It has 3 VHF units, 2 HF units, 1 SATCOM, 3 panels to control them. Plus ACARS and ADS. All these are powered from 4 DC busses, which are powered from 2 inter-changable AC busses. From all these, when both main alternators and the APU-driven generator fail, the one to shed is the SATCOM. So how come we still have SATCOM working and none of the others?

What is the layout of the electrical bay any-ways (the rack positions and such for each system) Any complete wire harness diagrams to stare at.

[Edited 2014-03-21 08:53:30]



Quoting hivue (Reply 217):
The SATCOM communications box never lost its supply of power and was never actively turned off (breaker pulled).

You would think they would pull the power on everything related to black boxes, satcom, vhf, hf if they knew what they were doing but I guess if they just did stuff from the cockpit it would just be ACARS, transponder, and not the satcom modem itself. (In the 777 is the CVR/DFDR circuit breakers not in the cockpit because if that is the case then that is good for the chances of the recorders still having something even if everything else was deliberate)

[Edited 2014-03-21 08:56:53]



Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 219):
Since it appears that the current is basically eastward, I would expect some debris to start to wash ashore before too much longer. I cannot believe the thoroughnees of this investigation. It got off to a slow start I think due to a lack of cooperation between nationalities but now appears to be spearheaded by the Australians who have to be very careful of their political and business ties to the Malaysians and Indonesians.

With the entire world watching it would be nice to have some resolution, especially for the families of the missing.


Basically eastward and directly eastward are two different things near the shore lines according to a chart from an earlier thread the prevailing currents diverge and it could send debris in two direction away from land (Or it could make it through). After that it might very well end up in those "garbage patches" in the middle of the oceans which are kinda huge really. But that being said the AMSA search communication has been excellent and they post updates regularly and almost as they happen without making highly confusing statements.

Everything should be focused on finding the plane as fast as possible for the families and to ensure that this doesn't happen again regardless of the ultimate cause.

[Edited 2014-03-21 09:02:19]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-21 08:46:46 and read 16448 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 213):
7 pings, one per hour (on average) I believe

Yes, that is what I meant. I corrected my reply.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-21 08:49:38 and read 16423 times.

Quoting cand (Reply 214):
So how come we still have SATCOM working and none of the others?

The SATCOM communications box never lost its supply of power and was never actively turned off (breaker pulled).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: cand
Posted 2014-03-21 08:52:55 and read 16106 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 217):

So there was no malfunction at IGARI.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: DTWPurserBoy
Posted 2014-03-21 08:55:25 and read 16017 times.

Since it appears that the current is basically eastward, I would expect some debris to start to wash ashore before too much longer. I cannot believe the thoroughnees of this investigation. It got off to a slow start I think due to a lack of cooperation between nationalities but now appears to be spearheaded by the Australians who have to be very careful of their political and business ties to the Malaysians and Indonesians.

With the entire world watching it would be nice to have some resolution, especially for the families of the missing.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-21 08:59:53 and read 15869 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 125):
No it still got to that ping area which is very far how exactly do you get there without flying there. This is why having it stationary would have resulted in different pings (including the end one) and the end area would not even come close to getting near conspiracy land.

Can someone explain to me what this means? As far as I know a stationary object would result in the same ping timelag because the distance between the two object doesn't change. Did someone change the laws of physics or did I misunderstand what is being written above?

Quoting tomlee (Reply 113):
If the plane was stationary for all seven pings it would result in a totally differnt arc estimate which would look very unusual and would be a lot shorter than the final ping we see which is just about when the plane would have run out of fuel.

If the plane was stationary, it would give the same ping times... that ping time equates to (if we go by the last ping circle), a circle centered at 64E over the equator with a radius of about 2550NM.

Quoting jox (Reply 173):
a) It is "angle based" only to that extent that it is only ONE of their satellites that has picked up signals from the plane. I.e. it has to be within an angle that no of their other sats also covers.

b) The radius of the "arc" is based not on angle, but on transmission time of the signal (time between the signal is sent from the sat until the answer from the plane comes back - divided by 2).

Not sure what the correct term would be, but it's distance based only. Hence the target solution for a given ping (except for directly below the satellite or beyond the horizon) would be a circle centered at where the satellite is over the earth's surface. The final ping is given to be at the 40deg circle, what this means is 40 degrees of elevation from the earth's horizon to the satellite...
The arc, or red arc, shows the part of the 40deg circle that comes within the maximum range circle of the flight based on the fuel load and last radar contact... except for the parts where they know it's not there, or where it would be utterly ridiculous for it to be there,

Quoting tomlee (Reply 215):
Your getting confused by the lines and my discussion about the beyond the red arc north west conspiracy theories,

I hope you didn't think I am or was a believer of the "beyond the red arc northwest conspiracy theory", if yes, you may have misunderstood what I wrote.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: jox
Posted 2014-03-21 09:01:11 and read 15690 times.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 219):
I would expect some debris to start to wash ashore before too much longer

If we assume that there actually are some debris at the place they currently are searching at, I would say it takes at least 5-7 weeks until the currents have drifted the debris to the closest Austrailan coast. This is FAR out from the coast!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 09:06:22 and read 15286 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 220):
Can someone explain to me what this means? As far as I know a stationary object would result in the same ping timelag because the distance between the two object doesn't change. Did someone change the laws of physics or did I misunderstand what is being written above?

No your misreading my posting, a stationary object would not consistently move away from the sat so the pings including the end ping would not match reality. We know the pings were moving and a stationary plane can't really move while also being stationary. (That is breaking the laws of physics)

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 220):
If the plane was stationary, it would give the same ping times... that ping time equates to (if we go by the last ping circle), a circle centered at 64E over the equator with a radius of about 2550NM.

Yes it would give the same pings but it could not physically be on the same arc as their estimate would see it stop far before the 7th ping and they would update accordingly. They would also note that the plane appeared to cease moving which again isn't what reality has the pings doing.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 220):
I hope you didn't think I am or was a believer of the "beyond the red arc northwest conspiracy theory", if yes, you may have misunderstood what I wrote.

Covert landing (Being stationary and intact) is included in that group of theories.

[Edited 2014-03-21 09:07:06]

[Edited 2014-03-21 09:07:20]



Also while everyone wishes and hopes for everyone on board to still be alive the simple matter is that it isn't going to be that case and the families and relatives of those onboard don't need media reports saying credible sources and experts think the plane landed or the plane was stolen in some way. All these serve to do is generate false hope and prolong the mental pain and anguish people are going through.

[Edited 2014-03-21 09:11:38]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-21 09:07:30 and read 15264 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 220):
If the plane was stationary, it would give the same ping times... that ping time equates to (if we go by the last ping circle), a circle centered at 64E over the equator with a radius of about 2550NM.

Constrained to two arcs by the fact that adjacent, overlapping Inmarsat satellites for whatever reason did not pick up the last "ping" (and possibly how far the plane could have flown on the fuel it had, etc.).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: rj777
Posted 2014-03-21 09:12:32 and read 14877 times.

What I would like to know, is any of these search aircraft capable of being supported by an aircraft carrier? If so, that would go a long way towards shortening the amount of time it would take to get to the site.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-21 09:13:16 and read 14915 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 222):
We know the pings were moving

Someone remind me how we know this. The last ping is all the data that has been released publically. Did the Inmarsat guy say in the interview that they know the pings showed movement based on their data?

[Edited 2014-03-21 09:14:20]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: qualitydr
Posted 2014-03-21 09:15:01 and read 14846 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 12):
If the distances at each hourly ping do not match the "straight line" theory then we know the aircraft made addition course changes, and we would know that it turned towards the satellite or away from it. Additionally we would know how significant the course change was based on the amount of deviation away or towards, since the last ping.

Any significant course change reduces the maximum final distance away from the point of origin, so this is very important information.

(Putting on my math modeling hat...)

Indeed, it's a fairly simple algorithm to wring information from successive ping-rings, assuming the plane flew at a (nearly) constant airspeed. Though such an algorithm likely doesn't give a single answer, it could significantly narrow down the total to some reasonable answers, and may even rule out one arc or the other. All by itself that's hugely useful, as we don't have unlimited resources to execute searches.

(Putting math modeler hat away next to propeller beanie and tinfoil hat...)

QD

PS Sorry I'm a bit late w/ this reply; being away from my desk for a couple of hours means lots of posts to wade through! QD)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 09:18:13 and read 15223 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 225):
Someone remind me how we know this. The last ping is all the data that has been released publically. Did the Inmarsat guy say in the interview that they know the plane was moving based on their data?



"Engineers at Inmarsat Plc, whose satellite picked up the pings, plotted seven positions for the Boeing Co. 777-200ER on March 8, Chris McLaughlin, a company spokesman, said in an interview. The plane flew steadily away from the satellite over the equator while pinging, McLaughlin said. "

This is duplicated a lot and there are many news reports on the interviews and the same reports posted here but for your convenience here is the link as well.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...over-ocean-inmarsat-estimates.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-21 09:18:32 and read 15144 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 222):
No your misreading my posting, a stationary object would not consistently move away from the sat so the pings including the end ping would not match reality. We know the pings were moving and a stationary plane can't really move while also being stationary. (That is breaking the laws of physics)
OK, sorry, your explanation above seems so far away from:

Quoting tomlee (Reply 125):
This is why having it stationary would have resulted in different pings (including the end one) and the end area would not even come close to getting near conspiracy land.

Both of what I quoted cannot be correct. Which one is correct? Reply 125 or Reply 222?

Quoting tomlee (Reply 222):
Covert landing (Being stationary and intact) is included in that block of theories.

Did I mention that? If yes, please remind me where...

Quoting tomlee (Reply 222):
Yes it would give the same pings but it could not physically be on the same arc as their estimate would see it stop far before the 7th ping and they would update accordingly. They would also note that the plane appeared to cease moving which again isn't what reality has the pings doing.

If the aircraft is moving along that 40deg inclination circle, it would give the same ping distance as if it was stationary on the 40deg inclination circle (while it isn't)... correct? So why would we see it stop far before the 7th ping?
If the aircraft simply flew towards the southernmost end of the northern red arc (near JHG/Jinghong China) which takes about 2 hours, and then flew along the red arc towards the northwest, and remaining on the 40deg inclination circle, the subsequent pings would be the same as if the aircraft was stationary (while it isn't).

[Edited 2014-03-21 09:20:29]

[Edited 2014-03-21 09:22:06]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: DTWPurserBoy
Posted 2014-03-21 09:20:04 and read 15108 times.

Quoting rj777 (Reply 224):
What I would like to know, is any of these search aircraft capable of being supported by an aircraft carrier? If so, that would go a long way towards shortening the amount of time it would take to get to the site.

Not feasable. A P-8 is a 737-800 and a P-3 is a Lockheed Electra. C-130's are huge turboprops. None can land on a carrier deck.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-21 09:20:19 and read 14984 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 222):
Also while everyone wishes and hopes for everyone on board to still be alive the simple matter is that it isn't going to be that case and the families and relatives of those onboard don't need media reports saying credible sources and experts think the plane landed or the plane was stolen in some way. All these serve to do is generate false hope and prolong the mental pain and anguish people are going through.

Actually, the reality is that we simply don't know- and to state otherwise is actually IMO irresponsible.

Whilst that may be the most probable outcome, if there's one thing this event has taught us is to not assume anything.

Even the Malaysians were at pain to express this was still being treated as a SAR mission in the press conference today.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 09:24:32 and read 14687 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 228):
OK, sorry, your explanation above seems so far away from:

A stationary object would result in stationary pings (different pings, than what know to be real)

Do you understand what I mean by different (not different location but different than reality) I think I already said this but you didn't quote it.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 228):
Did I mention that? If yes, please remind me where...

See summary posts in previous threads its a pretty common thing that pops up here. Grouped together because they are all conspiracy theories.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 228):
If the aircraft is moving along that 40deg inclination circle, it would give the same ping distance as if it was stationary on the 40deg inclination circle (while it isn't)... correct? So why would we see it stop far before the 7th ping?
If the aircraft simply flew towards the southernmost end of the northern red arc (near JHG/Jinghong China) which takes about 2 hours, and then flew along the red arc towards the northwest, and remaining on the 40deg inclination circle, the subsequent pings would be the same as if the aircraft was stationary (while it isn't).

Except the plane did not move along a 40deg circle as that would not show match up as the interview said as consistently moving away with the pings. It flew consistently away so it was not running specially along the arc (The arc is not the flight path)

(Done, the inmarsat interview killed a lot of "theories", there dead, that is it, the end)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-21 09:26:06 and read 14612 times.

Quoting qualitydr (Reply 226):
Indeed, it's a fairly simple algorithm to wring information from successive ping-rings, assuming the plane flew at a (nearly) constant airspeed.

What we do know is its ground speed (not airspeed) from the satellite, heavily averaged of course because of the 1hr period of the pings.

If this speed between pings stays relatively constant (+/- error, winds aloft), we can make the assumption that the aircraft is flying in a straight line. I believe this is why the NTSB believes a straight-line track is most probable.

As I said, there IS the possibility that they made course changes in between each ping that would cause their ground speed away from the sat to appear relatively constant across 1 hour intervals, but the scenario is highly unlikely as this would imply foreknowledge of the satellite pings on behalf of the actors.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-21 09:29:08 and read 14539 times.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 230):
Actually, the reality is that we simply don't know- and to state otherwise is actually IMO irresponsible.

This is one of those cases where yes, we simply don't know.
To pass them off as already dead, is irresponsible.
At the same time, if we already know this was an accident... (eg: if the plane simply went on, and crash landed in the pacific ocean instead), then yes, realistically, they'd all likely to be dead by now if not found. But, it is morally wrong to assume that there will be no survivors, unless we have evidence pointing to the likelihood that the impact was not survivable.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 09:29:53 and read 14539 times.

Quoting liquidair (Reply 230):
Actually, the reality is that we simply don't know- and to state otherwise is actually IMO irresponsible.

Whilst that may be the most probable outcome, if there's one thing this event has taught us is to not assume anything.

Even the Malaysians were at pain to express this was still being treated as a SAR mission in the press conference today.

The SAR search looking for potential survivors in the water even after weeks is responsible. Looking for airports and landing strips is not responsible. The most probable outcome is backed by history, statistics, existing evidence, ...

How many planes have disappeared for weeks and then turned out to be stolen and everyone lived. The Malaysians should not be seriously considering conspiracy theories as it is a waste of resources which will be directed away from a more logical and methodical search for the plane wreckage.

Allowing any theory to go is going to cause a waste of time, resources, money, manpower which in my opinion is irresponsible.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 233):
This is one of those cases where yes, we simply don't know.
To pass them off as already dead, is irresponsible.
At the same time, if we already know this was an accident... (eg: if the plane simply went on, and crash landed in the pacific ocean instead), then yes, realistically, they'd all likely to be dead by now if not found. But, it is morally wrong to assume that there will be no survivors, unless we have evidence pointing to the likelihood that the impact was not survivable.

I'm not passing them off as dead it is just extremely probable. Any ocean/land search should be as expedient as possible should the unlikely event that someone survived. However looking for hidden airports and a stashed away plane is pure fiction and if the more likely event of someone surviving in the water or on land occurred while you where off looking for a hidden airplane that you presume landed the survivor could easily expire from the delay and diverted resources in chasing a red herring.

In my view if everyone is alive and safe and sound with a perfectly intact plane then that situation is not a concern until someone comes up with demands or something else. But if someone is out there in the ocean or land in that extremely but more likely case where they survived a crash they need to be found now and fast. (Entertaining landing theories would divert resources away from this and that is morally wrong)

One case is so unlikely it is basically impossible while another is basically impossible but has had extremely rare incidents of single or few survivors.

[Edited 2014-03-21 09:35:39]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: photolppt
Posted 2014-03-21 09:31:34 and read 14416 times.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 229):
Not feasable. A P-8 is a 737-800 and a P-3 is a Lockheed Electra. C-130's are huge turboprops. None can land on a carrier deck.

But they sure as hell tried to make the C-130 a carrier based airplane...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ar-poc38C84

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: spacecadet
Posted 2014-03-21 09:33:23 and read 14299 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 228):
Quoting tomlee (Reply 222):
No your misreading my posting, a stationary object would not consistently move away from the sat so the pings including the end ping would not match reality. We know the pings were moving and a stationary plane can't really move while also being stationary. (That is breaking the laws of physics)
OK, sorry, your explanation above seems so far away from:

Quoting tomlee (Reply 125):
This is why having it stationary would have resulted in different pings (including the end one) and the end area would not even come close to getting near conspiracy land.

He's just saying that the plane hadn't landed and was still sending out pings, which is one of the theories people have put forth here - that it was pinging while sitting on a tarmac somewhere. It had to be moving the entire time, at least until the last ping.

These pings are only once an hour (on average), though, so we don't really know what might have happened after that last ping.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 228):
If the aircraft is moving along that 40deg inclination circle, it would give the same ping distance as if it was stationary on the 40deg inclination circle (while it isn't)... correct? So why would we see it stop far before the 7th ping?

If it had landed somewhere earlier on, it would have pinged from the same distance more than once, and according to Inmarsat, it didn't do that. So it was flying through all the pings. The only landing it could have made would have been after the last ping.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-21 09:33:30 and read 14313 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 227):
This is duplicated a lot and there are many news reports on the interviews

Sorry. Missed that somehow. Thanks. I will cast my lot with those who say that it is possible the plane could have been stationary on the ground (or water) with the SATCOM box still powered at the last ping. (If I had to wager money, though, I would say the plane is at the bottom of the Indian Ocean somewhere.)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-21 09:37:18 and read 14199 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 234):
How many planes have disappeared for weeks and then turned out to be stolen and everyone lived.

Agreed. After 2 weeks MH370's silence has become deafening. It suggests to me the silence at the bottom of the ocean.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: davidzill
Posted 2014-03-21 09:39:10 and read 14029 times.

I believe 370 is committed to the depths of the sea in an ocean where depths can reach over 5 miles.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 09:43:43 and read 13770 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 238):
Agreed. After 2 weeks MH370's silence has become deafening. It suggests to me the silence at the bottom of the ocean.

As sad as it might be that is the likely/probable situation. I just hope they can find something soon so the process both regulatory and emotionally can progress to the next stage.

Quoting hivue (Reply 238):
I believe 370 is committed to the depths of the sea in an ocean where depths can reach over 5 miles.

The deep ocean while presenting a pretty huge technical challenge is probably more complicated by the rough surface conditions than the depth as you need surface support ships to send deep sea ROVs and since it can take a long time to find the primary debris field unpredictable/intense weather up top especially in that area is concerning.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: solarflyer22
Posted 2014-03-21 09:46:54 and read 13524 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 222):
Also while everyone wishes and hopes for everyone on board to still be alive the simple matter is that it isn't going to be tha

So, I'm a little confused by the technical arguments here despite knowing a fair amount about satellites and orbits. In the first 6 pings, does it actually matter in regards to finding the wreckage? I mean my point of view is draw a 600 mile radius around the last ping and start looking. You figure that's how far it could have gone after the last ping, include some glide time after gas ran out etc.

When I look at the two arcs, I immediately look toward the southern one and toward the end. My "gut" tells me that's where it is and I would have scrambled there right from the early one Yes, its not 100% science but I think I understand the final trajectory and you can extrapolate from that. The other 6 pings only tell me so much.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: 747megatop
Posted 2014-03-21 09:46:55 and read 13559 times.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 229):
Not feasable. A P-8 is a 737-800 and a P-3 is a Lockheed Electra. C-130's are huge turboprops. None can land on a carrier deck.

The closest are EP-3E ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EP-3E ) and E2 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-2_Hawkeye). Not sure though if these aircraft can be used for the same purpose P-8 and P-3 are being used; but i wonder if those 2 aircraft types can still be used for the "visual" scanning of the oceans that is being done in which case those 2 carrier based type along with other aircrafts and helicopters launched from a carrier would still have more air time over the area compared to land based aircraft.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: liquidair
Posted 2014-03-21 09:48:38 and read 13393 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 234):
Quoting hivue (Reply 238):
Quoting davidzill (Reply 239):

be that as it may, and despite previous occasions, the fact of the matter is

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 233):
To pass them off as already dead, is irresponsible.

A little sensitivity wouldn't go amiss, i don't think.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 234):
Allowing any theory to go is going to cause a waste of time, resources, money, manpower which in my opinion is irresponsible.

That I just plain do not agree with- It would be ill advised to wear blinkers in a case like this- all avenues MUST be explored, until you find proof that discounts the incorrect ones and eventually leads to the correct path.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-21 09:54:36 and read 13011 times.

This is like looking for a needle in a haystack, but you can't find the haystack...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-21 09:55:12 and read 13026 times.

I think, regarding carriers, helicopters would probably be most useful and I recall someone saying that just such a ship is en-route.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: tomlee
Posted 2014-03-21 09:57:00 and read 12941 times.

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 241):
So, I'm a little confused by the technical arguments here despite knowing a fair amount about satellites and orbits. In the first 6 pings, does it actually matter in regards to finding the wreckage? I mean my point of view is draw a 600 mile radius around the last ping and start looking. You figure that's how far it could have gone after the last ping, include some glide time after gas ran out etc.

When I look at the two arcs, I immediately look toward the southern one and toward the end. My "gut" tells me that's where it is and I would have scrambled there right from the early one Yes, its not 100% science but I think I understand the final trajectory and you can extrapolate from that. The other 6 pings only tell me so much.

People just want to play SAR expert for the day. I would too, but the data coming form the AMSA and NTSB work looks good to me so I don't see the point in us "experts" doing the same thing again. Many people got confused about what the arcs mean coupled with the plane moving constantly and that it must end on the arc last arc to be even reality based.

Many people want to use the intermediate pings which we already know show consistent movement to support theories related to (spoofing a sat modem, landing a plane covertly for two weeks, landing in the ocean to steal cargo?, and various other conspiracy theories where there would be some anomaly or pause in the pings) which they don't as the public interviews directly state and other more level headed people just want to see how direct and how the estimates of the NTSB compare to their own.

In terms of SAR the last arc and final estimates are what they need to use. The intermediate pings are already factored/plotted/considered by inmarsat and the NTSB. The other 6 pings are in the more distant past they calibrated and showed the path to the 7th ping they were not ignored in building the refined estimates.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-21 09:58:13 and read 12936 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 234):
How many planes have disappeared for weeks and then turned out to be stolen and everyone lived.

We all know the answer... sadly... none...

Quoting tomlee (Reply 231):
See summary posts in previous threads its a pretty common thing that pops up here. Grouped together because they are all conspiracy theories.
Quoting tomlee (Reply 234):
Allowing any theory to go is going to cause a waste of time, resources, money, manpower which in my opinion is irresponsible.

I don't entertain the "hide the airplane in the northwest" theory. What I wanted with the intermediate pings was only to find where along the arc is the most likely position of the last ping because my interest is for the world to find the plane and then we can get on to the next stage. Finding it, in my opinion is important, regardless of the aircraft being intact or in pieces over land or underwater. So please do not slap my reasoning by thinking I am with the "oh it must have been hidden in the desert somewhere" bandwagon. I just want the plane found!

Quoting tomlee (Reply 234):
In my view if everyone is alive and safe and sound with a perfectly intact plane then that situation is not a concern until someone comes up with demands or something else. But if someone is out there in the ocean or land in that extremely but more likely case where they survived a crash they need to be found now and fast. (Entertaining landing theories would divert resources away from this and that is morally wrong)

This is what the common ground is and should be. Those who say, "scrap the search, it's landed in Pakistan", is irresponsible, and perhaps immoral too.
However, saying that "if it landed, then this is going to be extremely difficult to find because (insert whatever reason)", is not irresponsible. (mine would be, "because if flown afterwards it would have flown without the satcom active, which is our last link to the aircraft.")... Any credible lead, is a good lead at the moment.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: canoecarrier
Posted 2014-03-21 09:58:33 and read 12838 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 178):
The images are from DigitalGlobe which is a commercial sat imaging company. If you have the money you can buy the highest quality images they can produce.
Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 184):
Actually DigitalGlobe is allowed to take images above commercial grade resolution, but can sell those only to US Military, 50cm is the cutoff. They have two sats one with 46cm another with 25cm.

I'd think most countries capable of having spy satellites probably assume other countries have satellites capable of providing better resolution than what's commercially available. Personally, I don't think the images that were released yesterday were intentionally blurred. What's more closely held as a state secret is the time that it takes to turn around an image once a satellite has been tasked.

Some thoughts on a comment posted several "parts" of this thread ago. I believe someone said that the crew has the option of pulling the breaker or in some way turning off the DCVR/DFDR if an event happens that is resolved and they want to save the recording. IIRC this is primarily due to limitations in the recording media (i.e., it records voice for 2 hours).

The last revision the FAA made to the CVR and Digital Flight Data Recorder Regulations resulted because, "The information recorded on cockpit voice recorders (CVRs) and Digital Flight Data Recorders (DFDRs) has not always been sufficient to support the NTSB%u2019s investigations."

At that time, the NTSB recommended that for all aircraft manufactured after January 1, 2003, "Both recording systems should be capable of recording all mandatory data parameters covering the previous 25 hours of operation and all cockpit audio and controller pilot datalink communications for the previous two hours of operation."

That should be revisited. If for some reason they find the CVR and DFDR and all we have is dead air, we of course can make some assumptions. But with aircraft capable of flying for well over 10 hours and flash memory capable of recording an order of magnitude more than that, we should at least record the gate to gate time.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-21 10:00:52 and read 12800 times.

Quoting rj777 (Reply 224):
What I would like to know, is any of these search aircraft capable of being supported by an aircraft carrier? If so, that would go a long way towards shortening the amount of time it would take to get to the site.
Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 229):
Not feasable. A P-8 is a 737-800 and a P-3 is a Lockheed Electra. C-130's are huge turboprops. None can land on a carrier deck.
Quoting photolppt (Reply 235):
But they sure as hell tried to make the C-130 a carrier based airplane...

  

To which I would add that most carrier aircraft are not suitable for searching.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: jetblueguy22
Posted 2014-03-21 10:06:39 and read 13319 times.

Hi All,

This thread has gotten long and Part 42 has been created. It can be found here MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 42 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 21 2014 in Civil Aviation) .

All posts made after the lock will be removed for housekeeping purposes only.

Regards,
Pat

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-21 17:37:53 and read 6617 times.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 222):
Covert landing (Being stationary and intact) is included in that group of theories.

Possibly being "stationary and intact" somewhere is certainly not a conspiracy theory. I can tell you for a fact that the appropriate organisations are investigating that possibility just as seriously as the southern route. Its just that they don't need any help because they can use object shape algorithms to easily find all the possible landing strips and/or hangers within the possible landing zone. Then, if something peaks their interest, they will go and check it out. "They" don't need a host of countries and a hundred planes, ships and sub's to do it.

Also the northern route investigators don't want to tip off anyone as to where and when they might be moving.


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