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Topic: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: SA7700
Posted 2014-03-22 09:32:36 and read 84250 times.

Some members may not be aware of the fact that all members have an edit window of 60 minutes, from the time you first make a post in which to add or remove any additional comments or information into/from the post. Please make use of this feature made available to you, for your own convenience, instead of posting one post after another (doubles, triples or more).

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Due to length part 42 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 43:

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 1 (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 15 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16 (by SA7700 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 17 (by 777ER Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 18 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 19 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 20 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 21 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 22 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 23 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 28 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 32 (by ManuCH Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 33 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34 (by SA7700 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35 (by SA7700 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 36 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37 (by SA7700 Mar 19 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 38 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 19 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39 (by SA7700 Mar 20 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40 (by SA7700 Mar 20 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41 (by SA7700 Mar 20 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 42 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 21 2014 in Civil Aviation)

**********************************************************************************************

**** ADDITIONAL NEWS REPORTS ****

MH370: search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane extended to southern Indian Ocean

Najib's full press statement on MH370

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: What we know so far

MISSING MH370: Timeline

Flight MH370: Police focus on pilots as search for airliner goes on - live updates

Flight MH370: New timeline casts doubt on pilot deception theory

MISSING MH370: ACARS cannot be disabled

MISSING MH370: Search for missing aircraft above politics: Hishamuddin


***********************************************************************************************


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**** Some members may not be aware of the fact that all members have an edit window of 60 minutes, from the time you first make a post in which to add or remove any additional comments or information into/from the post. Please make use of this feature made available to you, for your own convenience, instead of posting one post after another (doubles, triples or more).

**** [b]Also keep in mind that this is a discussion forum and not a chat room. If you would like to chat about this incident, kindly make use of the "Live Chat" option, which is available in the "forum drop-down menu".
Messages of agreement such as "ME TOO", "I AGREE WITH X", ”YES” OR ”NO” have been found to waste time and space and are therefore to be avoided. A message consisting of only one or two lines of text is probably not worth posting. Do not make posts that contain only a smiley face, check mark, etc. Make sure the content of your post is relevant to the topic.

Enjoy the forums!

Regards and thanks for your co-operation,

SA7700

[Edited 2014-03-23 06:53:52]

Topic: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: cat3appr50
Posted 2014-03-22 09:44:29 and read 84416 times.

Clarification on my last post. Just read the UK Telegraph ATC communications transcript of MH370 flight, and the FL350 double communications to ATC seems normal. Disregard the last paragraph of my previous post..no abnormalities there IMO.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: boacvc10
Posted 2014-03-22 10:01:49 and read 84035 times.

Quoting boacvc10 (Reply 281):
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 279):
Umm isn't it obvious it's not a real picture?



With the number of people on the internet that don't know/don't care/don't have clue how to verify/twitter/pinterest/news feeds, and the need to share ... it's likely that photo will become something like: WTC 9/11 American Airlines hoax picture

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-22 10:02:04 and read 83987 times.

Quoting capri (Reply 274):
so they can at least stop some theories/conspiracies going out of control

International Convention on Civil Aviation, Annex 13:

"OBJECTIVE OF THE INVESTIGATION

3.1 The sole objective of the investigation of an accident or incident shall be the prevention of accidents and incidents. It is not the purpose of this activity to apportion blame or liability.

PROTECTION OF EVIDENCE, CUSTODY AND REMOVAL OF AIRCRAFT RESPONSIBILITY OF THE STATE
OF OCCURRENCE


3.2 The State of Occurrence shall take all reasonable measures to protect the evidence and to maintain safe custody of the aircraft and its contents for such a period as may be necessary for the purposes of an investigation. Protection of evidence shall include the preservation, by photographic or other means of any evidence which might be removed, effaced, lost or destroyed. Safe custody shall include protection against further damage, access by unauthorized persons, pilfering and deterioration."

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: WingedMigrator
Posted 2014-03-22 10:08:14 and read 83867 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 271):
The problem with electrical fire is that it does not match the aircraft's behaviour. It went past the waypoint, turned to the right, then some minute(s) after that, turned back left almost 180 degrees, and continued for a long time, and turned again just before entering Indonesian airspace before finally making the turn to the final track to disappear. That sequence of events took about 40mins.

I don't see why it can't match. Fires can spread gradually and crews can fight them while trying to land the airplane. I wouldn't exclude the possibility that the crew remained able throughout the flight, and that the airplane was no longer controllable.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: davidzill
Posted 2014-03-22 10:18:17 and read 83727 times.

What I find noticeable is that the first Chinese satellite sighting near Vietnam, the Australian satellite sighting, and the recent Chinese sighting all deal with pieces of floating debris of almost exacting dimensions, yet it's hard to find a section of the 777 meeting those dimensions, and if there was, you would think it would just sink due to weight, unless a wing was largely intact and the empty fuel tanks had buoyancy effects. Whatever the case, it takes days for these finds to come out, because the above listed countries must sort through thousands of wiles of satellite photography, so I doubt the debris are any near where they were photographed. It's a wild goose chase of epic proportions.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-22 10:53:26 and read 82410 times.

Quoting boacvc10 (Reply 2):

There will always be stupid people doing/saying stupid things. I don't think a disclaimer is gonna help that. At least the 9/11 one looks like real life... the MH one looks artsy and also, even the dumbest person can probably put two and two and realize that if we had a picture of MH370 ditching, we'd probably wouldn't have wasted over a week searching in obviously wrong areas.

Much freaking out over nothing

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-22 10:58:56 and read 82273 times.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 5):
I wouldn't exclude the possibility that the crew remained able throughout the flight, and that the airplane was no longer controllable.

I don't know fire can explain the comms going dead then the aircraft doing a 180º turn, then continued for about 35mins, then turned right by 70º, continued straight for about 20 mins, then turned right by about 80º then 5 mins later left again by about 80º then continuing into oblivion... The timeframe is too long to make it knock out the comms, still let the aircraft be under control, only to knock the crew and/or the controls out after an hour.
The location of the turns are also coincidentally very near waypoints that are near the FIR boundaries...

Unfortunately, the aircraft being under control, is the most likely scenario at the moment, and it is the easiest (although not easy) to comprehend given what we know.

Simple fire scenarios, simple hijack scenarios, simple decompression scenarios, I think can all be ruled out as it doesn't fit what happened. The complex scenarios such as "take-over" (complex hijack), or complex fire, are the two most likely... each have their huge missing pieces of the jigsaw though...  

So I guess this topic will continue at a rate of 2 a day (it did peak at 3 parts a day did it?)

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: fooflyboy
Posted 2014-03-22 11:11:43 and read 81737 times.

From prior (now locked) thread:

Quoting FlyingSicilian (Reply 171):
Pilot's unions would most likely never allow that. Some don't even like CVRs

I say good luck with that

After the publicized unauthorized cockpit visits alone, I would imagine video might be proposed for cockpits. This is already being proposed for railroad locomotives as well. No it's not popular, but I would think privacy is a secondary concern when you are in control of a common carrier mode of transportation.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: canoecarrier
Posted 2014-03-22 11:50:52 and read 80065 times.

Quoting fooflyboy (Reply 8):
After the publicized unauthorized cockpit visits alone, I would imagine video might be proposed for cockpits. This is already being proposed for railroad locomotives as well. No it's not popular, but I would think privacy is in secondary concern when you are in control of a common carrier mode of transportation

And what do you think we would learn that isn't already captured by the CVR/DFDR? These "unauthorized" cockpit visits were dealt with by the airlines already and even if you do capture one on video the tapes are only reviewed if there's and incident and overwritten after a specified amount of time. With AF 447 we would have learned nothing more if a cockpit camera was present.

IIRC, both the PF and the PNF's instrument displays are captured in the recording as well as any discussions the pilots are having. It would only be a "feel good" regulation that wouldn't improve safety.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: abba
Posted 2014-03-22 12:12:04 and read 79289 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 7):
The complex scenarios such as "take-over" (complex hijack), or complex fire, are the two most likely... each have their huge missing pieces of the jigsaw though...  

And as time is going by these scenarios becomes less likely. People are not just doing a hijack out of the blue. Hijacking an aircraft these days takes a lot of planning and involves huge personal risk for the involved. They, therefore, must have some kind of motivation for doing such things - strong and extreme political views or religious ideas or some kind of nebulous combination of the two. And such things cannot be kept secret by the people involved!

We can for one very good reason not investigate very much what went on in the cockpit of flight MH370. However, we can look very carefully into the background of the people on board that flight. And I am absolutely sure that if there were potential terrorists or hijack'ers we would have known by now. I am even sure that we would have a good chance of knowing even if an undercover agent were on the passenger list.

Save for the early rumors of the captain's family problems - that has later been proven false - there has been silence on this front ever since the disappearance. And this lack of news is in my mind as important as a report would have been telling us that a group of terrorists flew on MH370.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: garpd
Posted 2014-03-22 12:13:04 and read 79269 times.

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 9):
ith AF 447 we would have learned nothing more if a cockpit camera was present.

Perhaps not AF 447, but there are a great many accidents that could have been better understood or indeed completely solved if the investigators could see what was happening in the flight deck.
9/11 for instance, PSA 1771, PSA 182, Itavia 870, Helios 522, Hughes Airwest 706...

The list goes on.

[Edited 2014-03-22 12:16:58]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: fooflyboy
Posted 2014-03-22 12:21:14 and read 78921 times.

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 9):
And what do you think we would learn that isn't already captured by the CVR/DFDR?

I think recording the entire flight instead of the last 2 hours only would tell us much more. Plus like it or not, there is a perception issue, which does count for something.

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 9):
even if you do capture one on video the tapes are only reviewed if there's and incident and overwritten after a specified amount of time.

Exactly. So no one chould be concerned about "privacy".

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 9):
With AF 447 we would have learned nothing more if a cockpit camera was present.

But with MH370 we most likely would. (speculating of course)

Thanks for the reply canoecarrier.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: flyinggoat
Posted 2014-03-22 12:29:19 and read 78599 times.

Is the 777 equipped with CO detectors in the cockpit area? I would assume so, but if not, perhaps a small fire could have caused CO poisoning, which can lead to confusion, amongst other side-effects.

Probably very unlikely, but at this stage, you never know...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-22 12:32:00 and read 78514 times.

Quoting fooflyboy (Reply 12):
Exactly. So no one chould be concerned about "privacy".

I think the privacy concerns are more about being watched for random reasons that don't have to do accidents/incidents. I think it's a valid concern but I'm pretty sure companies can't randomly pull CVRs so if they did the same for video, is there harm in that?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: kiwiandrew
Posted 2014-03-22 12:39:39 and read 78177 times.

I am not sure what value video would add to the CVR recordings, as already mentioned, I believe information regarding the readings of various instruments is already recorded by the FDR.

One thing I am sure of though, even for seasoned investigators it must be pretty harrowing listening to the recordings and hearing people who know they're about to die, I hate to think what it would be like having to watch as well.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: spacecadet
Posted 2014-03-22 12:42:24 and read 78069 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 10):
there has been silence on this front ever since the disappearance. And this lack of news is in my mind as important as a report would have been telling us that a group of terrorists flew on MH370.

It might be important - but it could be important for exactly the opposite reason you think it is. (Do you not see the flipside of the authorities *not* saying they've checked all passengers and crew, and cleared them all?) Much of this type of speculation is like that - it works equally well both ways, and it's down to your own personal biases how you see it.

The actual evidence we have today is the same as the evidence we had several days ago - nothing has really changed.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: fooflyboy
Posted 2014-03-22 12:42:27 and read 78042 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 14):
I think the privacy concerns are more about being watched for random reasons that don't have to do accidents/incidents.

You're probably right. It would make sense to be concerned about that I suppose. But I would hope that airlines would be more professionally managed and that abuse of monitoring systems would not occur.

I believe I read somewhere recently that the meter readers for our regional power utility have had cameras installed in their vehicles. I don't think I would like that. But the technology is so cheap now it's becoming ubiquitous. It's gonna be hard to justify excluding it from commercial aircraft IMO.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: fooflyboy
Posted 2014-03-22 12:47:21 and read 77876 times.

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 15):
I am not sure what value video would add to the CVR recordings, as already mentioned, I believe information regarding the readings of various instruments is already recorded by the FDR.

My point is for extending CVRs to record the entire flight. Video would just be a plus.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: 7BOEING7
Posted 2014-03-22 12:47:53 and read 77908 times.

Quoting garpd (Reply 11):
Perhaps not AF 447, but there are a great many accidents that could have been better understood or indeed completely solved if the investigators could see what was happening in the flight deck.
9/11 for instance, PSA 1771, PSA 182, Itavia 870, Helios 522, Hughes Airwest 706...

I think 9/11, PSA1771 and 182 as well as Helios 522 are all thoroughly understood -- could you provide some enlightenment as to what other benefit cameras would have provided except watching it on the evening news?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: ltbewr
Posted 2014-03-22 12:52:44 and read 77690 times.

On the assumption that when MH370 started to run out of fuel and no one at the control:
.
Would the auto-pilot adjust for one engine running out of fuel before the other or disengage ?

If the loss of an engine due to fuel starvation (as happened in the Helios flight) and the auto is still on, and no one flying, would the a/c continue on it's original path but with difficulty ?

Would the a/c glide straight ahead on the last autopilot setting, doing a 'belly' landing, or stall and go into a flat spin (like I believe AF 447 did) or go into a steep dive ?

Would the a/c pitch nose down or tail down or go to left or right (depending on which engine cut out first) and crash 'pinwheel' style ?

The reasons I ask this is that depending on how the a/c was positioned when it hit the water could explain why large parts of the a/c breaking up and floating, which could explain the large pieces that satellites have seen could be parts of MH 379 a/c. An a/c's speed, pitch and roll position on impact can make a difference from a lot of large pieces (AF 447 with like a flat or near flat hitting the water) or small pieces (ValueJet in Florida which pretty much hit on it's nose).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-22 12:52:46 and read 77662 times.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 19):

Yeah, thoroughly understood after years of investigating.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-22 12:57:12 and read 77486 times.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 19):
except watching it on the evening news?

Can't answer your question, I'm open to hearing arguments for/against video, but they would NOT make it to the evening news. Try and find CVR recordings on the internet... there are very few because they are now not released to the public.

As long as every switch, dial, etc is monitored and we have voice recordings, I'm having a hard time thinking of how video would help. But if it would help in enough accidents and isn't prohibitively expensive*, then I would say go for it, granted the public would never see it and airlines couldn't just snoop in whenever they wanted**

*Money isn't everything, but it is something (a point I've made earlier.) Sometimes we deem that the airlines should pay for extra safety, but other times they would be overly burdened

**In aviation, I like the attitude a lot of the higher ups have... they often have the means to punish individuals but don't go investigating too much. There is a trust where safety issues (minor routine ones, not gross negligence ones) can be anonymously reported and corrected without having to slam pilots. Pilots are professionals, and all professionals will slip a bit, but ruining careers may not be needed, it may be as simple as telling them to cut it out because it's unsafe

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 20):
Would the auto-pilot adjust for one engine running out of fuel before the other or disengage ?

I could be wrong (correct me if I am indeed wrong) but the autopilot and autothrottles should be able to continue. The initial engine out may mess with the trim needed enough to kick off the autopilot and the autopilot may be unable to keep high altitude/airspeed, but at least in the 737, autopilot is used to aid the pilot in single engine ops (but autothrottle is not used even though it can work, theoretically.) Keep in mind, it may be different airline to airline, maybe, but I think a lot of the procedures I'm talking about come from Boeing (and again, only talking about the 737)

[Edited 2014-03-22 13:00:37]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-22 13:04:25 and read 77220 times.

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 20):
On the assumption that when MH370 started to run out of fuel and no one at the control:
.
Would the auto-pilot adjust for one engine running out of fuel before the other or disengage ?

If the loss of an engine due to fuel starvation (as happened in the Helios flight) and the auto is still on, and no one flying, would the a/c continue on it's original path but with difficulty ?

Would the a/c glide straight ahead on the last autopilot setting, doing a 'belly' landing, or stall and go into a flat spin (like I believe AF 447 did) or go into a steep dive ?

I am not a 777 pilot and you will have to take everything I say with a grain of salt, especially since it is based on secondary sources.

I remember reading that the 777 has a system called TAC, Thrust Asymmetry Compensation that will automatically compensate for a misbehaving engine if such a thing were to occur. In that scenario, if the designated heading/altitude can be maintained, I believe the autopilot should remain active but warnings will be delivered to the pilots. Once the heading/altitude cannot be maintained, the autopilot should disconnect. In that case, with no one at the controls, the aircraft will likely eventually roll just due to winds or otherwise descend rapidly into terrain, as no one is giving any authority to the control surfaces to keep the plane in a glide.

Again. Private pilot, not 777 pilot. But that's what I've read.

[Edited 2014-03-22 13:06:57]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: cougar15
Posted 2014-03-22 13:11:07 and read 76975 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 23):
I remember reading that the 777 has a system called TAC, Thrust Asymmetry Compensation that will automatically compensate for a misbehaving engine if such a thing were to occur

this is indeed the case, certainly on the later models (and my knowledge only extends to Frames built after 2009) !

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Mir
Posted 2014-03-22 14:28:06 and read 75882 times.

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 20):
Would the a/c glide straight ahead on the last autopilot setting, doing a 'belly' landing, or stall and go into a flat spin (like I believe AF 447 did) or go into a steep dive ?

The autopilot will attempt to stall the airplane. The stall protection system will kick in and push the nose over to prevent the stall, and will disconnect the autopilot in the process. At that point the airplane will be flying on its own - the autopilot will not reconnect. As there will be lots of nose-up trim from the autopilot's effort to maintain altitude as speed decreased, secondary stalls are likely as the airplane's longitudinal stability takes effect. But that won't last forever.

-Mir

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: canoecarrier
Posted 2014-03-22 14:32:08 and read 75555 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 7):
Unfortunately, the aircraft being under control, is the most likely scenario at the moment, and it is the easiest (although not easy) to comprehend given what we know.

I have a hard time imagining many scenarios where the flight crew or passengers are conscious as the plane continued flying the track it did for 7 or so hours without anyone noticing or attempting to do something. That sort of scenario also assumes the flight attendants were unaware or unable to affect what was going on as well. I can't think of any flight I've ever flown on as an airline employee or passenger where the cabin crew didn't speak to the pilots several times during a flight.

Quoting garpd (Reply 11):
9/11 for instance, PSA 1771, PSA 182, Itavia 870, Helios 522, Hughes Airwest 706...

As others have said, the causes of those accidents are well known without a camera. Even with a camera in the cockpit, 2 of the flight recorders on 9/11 were never found intact. I also think there's a basic misunderstanding of what data a modern CVR/DFDR collects now compared to what PSA 182 had on board in 1977. Not only in most cases is the memory digital now opposed to magnetic tape, modern recorders collect significantly more information. If the pilots let someone up front that shouldn't be there audio of that is recorded as well.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 22):
I could be wrong (correct me if I am indeed wrong) but the autopilot and autothrottles should be able to continue.

Perhaps Pihero or Mandala can shed some light on this, but if fuel starvation occurred shutting one or both engines down would the autopilot/throttle disconnect? Is there a safeguard in the system architecture similar to inconsistent speed readings in an Airbus that automatically disconnects the autopilot?

[Edited 2014-03-22 14:39:37]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Pihero
Posted 2014-03-22 15:06:41 and read 76130 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 7):
I don't know fire can explain the comms going dead then the aircraft doing a 180º turn, then continued for about 35mins, then turned right by 70º, continued straight for about 20 mins, then turned right by about 80º then 5 mins later left again by about 80º then continuing into oblivion... The timeframe is too long to make it knock out the comms, still let the aircraft be under control, only to knock the crew and/or the controls out after an hour.

Your post is puzzling, as so far no one has provided any evidence of all these trajectories or manoeuvres.
The only known facts are :
- A straightforward navigation to IGARI... and then nothing.
As a matter of fact the last known position - from FlightRadar (!!!) was a turn to the left, consistent to a direct track to IGARI ( confirmed by the Mickey Mouse Chinese COM translation), and starting a turn to fintercept the course to BITOD and subsequent route points.

AFAIK, the rest of the so-called radar contacts heve never been proven to be Flight 370. Not one.

As far as the so-called waypoint following turns are concerned, it's just a load of rubbish : You know very well that we seldom fly over waypoints, thanks to that Japanese mathematician which devised the algorythms allowing us to smoothen turning trajectories... and frankly, considering the number opf waypoints in the area, chances are any aircraft would come close enough to some for a nincompoop to avertise a deliberatre flying... which other nincompoops in the media would pick up and advertise foul play...   
After forty seven years in aviation, I'm not buying that.
So, in fact, we only have one position, the one at which we lost Flight 370 and a route, derived from the NTSB / FAA *loci*, which, as a matter of pure miracle (???!!!), matches the former within a reasonable accuracy.

For many people, the term *FIRE* has a very emotional connotation, and as such, the idea of an electrical fire is awfully difficult to accept... We have to say here that electricity doesn't burn... but it can communicate enough heat to flammable materials for them to catch fire...materials which are almost non-existent in our electronics bays.(See on this subject the AAIB report on the N786UA incident at LHR ).
But electrical components in the presence of arcing could emit quantities of potentially highly toxic fumes, i.e smoke.

Taking into account all the above, is it really difficult to accept that an electrical fault - a shorted circuit, an arc - could have knocked down a particular bus, the one that powers among other things the transponder ?
Then, with the crew busy dealing with an *ELECTRICAL SMOKE* procedure which involvfes a series of isolating the different components of the system and disconnectiing / reconnecting the different buses, they did not / could not liaise with ATC...
What happens later looks more like an airplane flying on its own than on a planned / piloted trajectory.

The NTSB / FAA / Boeing computed trajectory does not make any sense otherwise... But I am open to any other scenario.

cat3ppr50, post # 273, thread #42 :
"The assertions that fire on the aircraft most likely caused this sequence of events IMO seems to be a major stretch, given the facts reported, if they are to be believed. That theory IMO demands throwing out all of the Malaysian military radar data, the satellite ping data, logic, etc. "
It's one of the posts that oppose the *smoke* scenario without giving it a modicum of thought. Or a counterproof. As I said : explain the logic behind the US - reproduced trajectory... It took me two hours to solve it, and I have a Navigator's certificate.
Second, people on this forum don't actually realise how stable an FBW aircraft is : I sat once in a 320 out of autopilot and watched it fly, on it's own, straight and level for more than 10 minutes before the F/O in training realised the situation : heading was held to the degree and altitude within 50 feet. We could have flown for ever in that condition. ( The F/O is unlikely to forget to check his FMA from then on).

Edit : For those wanting facts and possibilities, Kaiarahi posted a link to instances of *FIRE* ( this time including some real ones) caused by Lithium batteries in personal electronics :here
It's worth exploring, IMO.

[Edited 2014-03-22 15:13:50]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: iberiadc852
Posted 2014-03-22 15:08:55 and read 75548 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 10):
And as time is going by these scenarios becomes less likely. People are not just doing a hijack out of the blue. Hijacking an aircraft these days takes a lot of planning and involves huge personal risk for the involved. They, therefore, must have some kind of motivation for doing such things - strong and extreme political views or religious ideas or some kind of nebulous combination of the two. And such things cannot be kept secret by the people involved!

Except their primary target were not exactly to hijack a Malasyain aircraft full of a bunch of nationalities, but being this a secondary one. Then they should be very very silent until they reached their real target. AFTER THAT, I agree with you.

Quoting abba (Reply 10):
. And I am absolutely sure that if there were potential terrorists or hijack'ers we would have known by now. I am even sure that we would have a good chance of knowing even if an undercover agent were on the passenger list.

In the same way, let alone I don't think all terrorists in this world are already known by authorities, even if they knew the ones in the aircraft but suspected this was only a step in the plot, they better should keep it in secret too.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Mir
Posted 2014-03-22 15:16:57 and read 75251 times.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 27):
Second, people on this forum don't actually realise how stable an FBW aircraft is : I sat once in a 320 out of autopilot and watched it fly, on it's own, straight and level for more than 10 minutes before the F/O in training realised the situation : heading was held to the degree and altitude within 50 feet. We could have flown for ever in that condition. ( The F/O is unlikely to forget to check his FMA from then on).

That's Airbus FBW. I don't believe that Boeing FBW does the same thing.

-Mir

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: awthompson
Posted 2014-03-22 15:51:39 and read 73780 times.

I'm also sadly starting to think more about the fire scenario, even with all of the problems making it fit the facts.

But just to go back to the hijack possibility, yes, we don't have a claim by any group, a ransom made public, or any destination reached, however, what if as I have suggested earlier in the threads their plan was not successful, ie. they were overpowered or something else went wrong to render their plan impossible.

Another sad situation is that with no CVR of that part of the flight (unless the CVR circuit breaker was pulled earlier in the scenario - not sure if that is even possible?) then we will never know exactly what went on in the first few hours of the flight.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: by738
Posted 2014-03-22 16:06:38 and read 73053 times.

A fire but no ability to transmit a message in any shape or form ? I find that unlikely.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: phantomx18
Posted 2014-03-22 16:12:18 and read 72944 times.

Not sure if this has been asked before. . .but has cell phone/camcorder video ever been pulled from passengers after a crash? Would solid state media even survive a crash (on land or water)?

Obviously this would not help in a sudden crash, but maybe during a possible hijacking, or long term mechanical problem, would we be able to recover any video taken by the passengers?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: bueb0g
Posted 2014-03-22 16:17:06 and read 72869 times.

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 19):
I think 9/11, PSA1771 and 182 as well as Helios 522 are all thoroughly understood -- could you provide some enlightenment as to what other benefit cameras would have provided except watching it on the evening news?

Actually there are definitely questions about Helios 522, with recent re-appraisals of the evidence pointing quite strongly to the pressurisation system being in AUTO and not Manual as the initial investigation concluded. This would obviously have major implications for the accident if true, shifting the cause of the accident from human factors (flight crew failing to pressurise the cabin) to mechanical issues (pressurisation fault, although if this were the case the crew still continued the climb following a Cabin ALT alarm).

Quoting Mir (Reply 29):
That's Airbus FBW. I don't believe that Boeing FBW does the same thing.

Yup, at least on the 777. 787 is another story but the 777's FBW doesn't maintain stability to the same degree that the Airbus system does

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-22 16:45:49 and read 71677 times.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 27):
The only known facts are :
- A straightforward navigation to IGARI... and then nothing.
Quoting by738 (Reply 31):
A fire but no ability to transmit a message in any shape or form ? I find that unlikely.

So can anyone come up with some minimum set of concurrent failures that would be required to get the plane from Pihero's "only known facts" to a spectre airplane no longer controlled by humans flying off on autopilot to the far southern Indian ocean? (BTW, I'm not criticizing anyone's point of view, just trying to figure out how things could have happened. Airline travel has become so reliable these days that accidents generally are the result of weird circumstances.)

[Edited 2014-03-22 16:58:09]

[Edited 2014-03-22 16:58:41]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Mouldypete
Posted 2014-03-22 17:02:54 and read 71314 times.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 27):
Your post is puzzling, as so far no one has provided any evidence of all these trajectories or manoeuvres.
The only known facts are :
- A straightforward navigation to IGARI... and then nothing.
As a matter of fact the last known position - from Flight Radar (!!!) was a turn to the left, consistent to a direct track to IGARI ( confirmed by the Mickey Mouse Chinese COM translation), and starting a turn to intercept the course to BITOD and subsequent route points.

Coming from an airline pilot your comments automatically demand respect.
The turn back by MH370 just after IGARI, postulated from primary radar tracks however fragmentary, does have another possible corroboration. Assuming that the subsequent ‘pings’ recorded by the Inmarsat IOR satellite are definitively tied to the aircraft and prove it to being still powered up, if the flight hadn’t turned back, then surely Inmarsat would have recorded pings from the flight on its POR satellite as the confirmed flight path was already on the cusp of entering the range of this next satellite?

Quoting Pihero (Reply 27):
So, in fact, we only have one position, the one at which we lost Flight 370 and a route, derived from the NTSB / FAA *loci*, which, as a matter of pure miracle (???!!!), matches the former within a reasonable accuracy.

The other turns in the Straits of Malacca supposedly from primary radar data seem more difficult to construct a reason for.
There are two identical solutions to the path across the IOR satellite range based on loci, assuming of course straight line flight at normal cruising speed. The ‘other one’ to the NW straight across India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan into Kazakhstan seems to have been rejected because of the reported absence of primary radar tracks. A case of the absence of evidence versus the evidence of absence?

It is striking that the last possible ‘primary radar evidenced’ turn to the NW at GIVAL (recorded as heading 308 degrees on the website http://skyvector.com/) is extremely close to the heading of the NW track of the loci. http://img4.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb2.../mh370/images/9/9a/Final_map_2.jpg
It is seductive to conceive the plane as being with an incapacitated crew and under the autopilot after the turn at GIVAL.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: NAV30
Posted 2014-03-22 17:03:43 and read 71474 times.

Apparently quite a lot more 'debris' is being found at the moment. Too early to say, though, whether any of it relates to MH370.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-2...ay-be-fruitful-abbott-says/5339334

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: canoecarrier
Posted 2014-03-22 17:07:52 and read 70878 times.

Quoting Mir (Reply 25):

Thank you for the explanation. Probably academic though. It would only help to know this if they can figure out where it ran out of fuel.

Quoting bueb0g (Reply 33):

Doubtful. The crew had all the information necessary to understand what was happening including the cabin pressure reading on the overhead panel. They got task focussed and misinterpreted the warning. A warning which is audible in the CVR recording. A camera wouldn't change our interpretation of what happened.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Pihero
Posted 2014-03-22 17:09:35 and read 71106 times.

Quoting Mir (Reply 29):
That's Airbus FBW. I don't believe that Boeing FBW does the same thing.

See the T7 flight controls and you'll be surprised. If anything, because of C* which includes speed stability - which the 'Bus doesn't have, it should be more stable.

Quoting by738 (Reply 31):
A fire but no ability to transmit a message in any shape or form ? I find that unlikely.

Basics of airmanship : Aviate... navigate... Communicate...
Why should I call somebody who couldn't help me when I'm busy dealing with what has become a full-fledged emergency ?

Quoting awthompson (Reply 30):
I'm also sadly starting to think more about the fire scenario, even with all of the problems making it fit the facts.

There are two ways of dealing with a mystery : trying to make the theory fit the facts... or trying to match the facts with one's theory.
One of these two ways is wrong. Which one ? I don't know, but it's not mine   

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: WingedMigrator
Posted 2014-03-22 17:21:09 and read 70535 times.

Quoting by738 (Reply 31):
A fire but no ability to transmit a message in any shape or form ? I find that unlikely.

There is precedent for that, with a sudden fire in the cockpit of a 777-200 in Cairo. The crew was unable to call for help from the cockpit.

Quoting hivue (Reply 34):
So can anyone come up with some minimum set of concurrent failures that would be required to get the plane from Pihero's "only known facts" to a spectre airplane no longer controlled by humans flying off on autopilot to the far southern Indian ocean?

I doubt that even 777-rated pilots could figure this one out. It requires knowledge of the physical layout of avionics boxes and the configuration of all the wiring that connects the various systems together throughout the airframe. This is an extremely complex issue. Also, we don't know that the autopilot was active when it supposedly flew south, nor do we know that the crew was incapacitated.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-22 17:21:11 and read 70517 times.

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 26):
I can't think of any flight I've ever flown on as an airline employee or passenger where the cabin crew didn't speak to the pilots several times during a flight.

Did the Malaysian Air 777's get cockpit door upgrades post 9/11? If so then the cockpit doors are lockable from the inside and are bullet proof. What would you have been able to do from the other side of that door?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: ranold76
Posted 2014-03-22 17:24:43 and read 70380 times.

I've never been so disheartened and disappointed by the media, politicians, technology and humanity in my life.
Failure on SO MANY LEVELS.
I've stopped watching the news, especially CNN. They've been trying to latch on to ANYTHING and running with it.
It's so bad that REAL BREAKING NEWS won't be until they stop broadcasting Breaking News alerts/banners.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Razza74
Posted 2014-03-22 17:27:14 and read 70452 times.

http://planefinder.net/ showing vh-vhd heading out to the Southern Indian Ocean right now

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: SouthernBelle
Posted 2014-03-22 17:34:30 and read 70561 times.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 27):
AFAIK, the rest of the so-called radar contacts heve never been proven to be Flight 370. Not one.

Have you not seen the newest radar data? I think it's very interesting.

It shows MH370 flying from waypoint VAMPI to MEKAR:

Here is the data with a map.

and just the map: https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-NYs43PKigHo/Uy3XB2QQ4-I/AAAAAAABEPo/ZjoZ7BJyjGI/w1129-h926-no/LastRadar.jpg


And therefore, as you can easily see, here's exactly the waypoints he was still using.

http://skyvector.com/?ll=6.324034189...RI:A.WM.WMKL:F.WM.VAMPI:F.WM.MEKAR

Three points:
1. Was technically headed back towards the satellite still.
2. I think *if* he was taking the southern arc, he was going to turn south just beyond that point, to avoid Indonesia.
3. More importantly, this invalidates the GIVAL waypoint and this map http://mothership.sg/v2/wp-content/u...ds/2014/03/mh370-diverted-path.jpg and all those supposed turns everyone is mentioning. It seems a lot more calm, and calculated.



But I'll tell you one thing- there's just NO WAY he was "looking for a runway" with this new data. Interesting, huh?

[Edited 2014-03-22 17:35:36]

[Edited 2014-03-22 17:58:47]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: md80fanatic
Posted 2014-03-22 17:45:24 and read 69432 times.

Quoting fooflyboy (Reply 17):
But I would hope that airlines would be more professionally managed and that abuse of monitoring systems would not occur.

The same was said of the NSA's ability to monitor personal cell phones and computers. That didn't end well obviously.
Power corrupts, remember? There will always be a need for privacy as it's the very cornerstone of freedom. Convicts have no privacy, free people do and need to exercise it at every available moment lest it be wrested from them while their heads are turned.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-22 17:47:54 and read 69297 times.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 39):
Also, we don't know that the autopilot was active when it supposedly flew south, nor do we know that the crew was incapacitated.

I understand that (Pihero mentioned all we really "know"). I'm just taking one of the many theories that have been floated (a much better one than, e.g., it landed in Pakistan as far as I'm concerned) and wanting to see what it might require to make that theory fact. The same process could be applied to other theories.

I wish I had a nickel for every program I've written that didn't do what I wanted it to, but after I saw exactly how it misbehaved it suddenly became pretty obvious what the likely sequence of events was.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: StuckInCA
Posted 2014-03-22 17:48:43 and read 69153 times.

Quoting md80fanatic (Reply 44):
There will always be a need for privacy as it's the very cornerstone of freedom. Convicts have no privacy, free people do and need to exercise it at every available moment lest it be wrested from them while their heads are turned.

I'm pretty sure people in most workplaces are able to be monitored by their employers. Recorded even. I could be mistaken, but I believe that to be the case.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: NAV30
Posted 2014-03-22 17:49:26 and read 69475 times.

Quoting SouthernBelle (Reply 43):
Interesting, huh?

More than interesting, SouthernBelle - on the face of it that (especially the last turn) blows my 'incapacitated pilots' theory out of the water!  

Not doubting your sincerity, but what's the source/provenance of that diagram?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: SouthernBelle
Posted 2014-03-22 17:57:05 and read 69139 times.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 48):

More than interesting, SouthernBelle - on the face of it that (especially the last turn) blows my 'incapacitated pilots' theory out of the water!

Not doubting your sincerity, but what's the source/provenance of that diagram?


Right, it's always good to look at sources! Here's the original page, in Chinese:

http://photo.china.com.cn/news/2014-03/21/content_31863360.htm

and a Google Translate version:

http://translate.google.com/translat...014-03%2F21%2Fcontent_31863360.htm


Doesn't look made up to me. Your take?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: md80fanatic
Posted 2014-03-22 18:09:21 and read 68882 times.

Quoting StuckInCA (Reply 47):
I'm pretty sure people in most workplaces are able to be monitored by their employers. Recorded even. I could be mistaken, but I believe that to be the case.

With the exception of our employees in Washington D.C. The employers (you and I) and in the dark. Yep, I'm tired of being treated as if I have done something wrong, and I am almost completely certain pilots feel the same way. Lets please not get too comfortable with the idea that we can know everything about everyone else just because it's possible, that's a very slippery slope my fellow American.  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: undertheradar
Posted 2014-03-22 18:17:21 and read 68495 times.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 36):

as day breaks over the southern indian ocean..we can only hope 'something' comes to fruition and can be POSITIVELY identified as 'something' from MH370.

on that note...I have been 'googling' all over the place and filing through my own memory as I try my best to answer my own questions before putting a post on here..if my memory serves me correctly...WOODEN pallets are used in commercial aircraft holds sometimes...so IF they do find this pallet and CAN trace it back to someone who used it as part of their freight consignment...or even better, locate a more significant piece of debris (more easily/quickly identifiable) ..then at least we can narrow the search down to ONE HEMISPHERE..

i'm focused on FINDING MH370

'hope' is all we have at the moment

[Edited 2014-03-22 18:37:30]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-22 18:37:19 and read 68236 times.

Quoting SouthernBelle (Reply 43):
Interesting, huh?

Check this out. I have added a few extra points beyond what we know :
http://skyvector.com/?ll=-9.39703903...R:F.WM.NILAM:F.WI.VIROT:F.VC.NIXUL

This map shows that whoever was in control could have flown known way points to where the north and south routes intersect (based on the Inmarsat ping calculations):



Compare the above with this:



MH370 appears to be flying know waypoints, heading for Diego Garcia (possibly). But then turns away at NIXUL - why?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: rj777
Posted 2014-03-22 18:41:42 and read 68272 times.

That cargo pallet could be from the MH370 cargo hold.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Mouldypete
Posted 2014-03-22 18:59:37 and read 67364 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 58):
Check this out. I have added a few extra points beyond what we know :
http://skyvector.com/?ll=-9.39703903...R:F.WM.NILAM:F.WI.VIROT:F.VC.NIXUL

This map shows that whoever was in control could have flown known way points to where the north and south routes intersect (based on the Inmarsat ping calculations):

I think you may have missed a major point. The tracks plotted by the NTSB START from the last supposedly known radar positions. The whole premise of the final prediction for both the southern and the northwestern track is promulgated from the "last known position" from radar.

I think we are in danger of entering a circular argument here.

[Edited 2014-03-22 19:00:34]

[Edited 2014-03-22 19:01:27]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: WingedMigrator
Posted 2014-03-22 19:01:48 and read 67232 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 58):
This map shows that whoever was in control could have flown known way points to where the north and south routes intersect (based on the Inmarsat ping calculations)

Beg to differ, this map doesn't show squat. Except that the sky is full of waypoints, enough to ascribe a drifting flight path to some sort of devious flight plan.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-22 19:04:45 and read 67042 times.

Quoting Mouldypete (Reply 60):
The whole premise of the final prediction for the both the southern and the northwestern track is promulgated from the "last known position" from radar

I don't agree. The predicted north and south route starting point is based on the 3:11 and 4:11 Inmarsat pings, both showing the same distance from the satellite. Look at the image in my previous post.

Continue the purple north and south tracks back to a starting point and you have NIXUL (approx.)

[Edited 2014-03-22 19:06:51]

[Edited 2014-03-22 19:07:52]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: SouthernBelle
Posted 2014-03-22 19:15:47 and read 66780 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 58):
MH370 appears to be flying know waypoints, heading for Diego Garcia (possibly). But then turns away at NIXUL - why?

Fun stuff! Your second map, as far as I've read, is entirely derived data- Inmarsat has actually only released the very last ping, for whatever reason. And according to the Slate article http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_te...issing_airliner_s_flight_path.html the folks at Inmarsat said aside from possibly a short time, 370 was always flying away from the satellite.

"Today, Inmarsat revealed some crucial information. “The ping timings got longer,” Inmarsat spokesman Chris McLaughlin stated via email. That is to say, at each stage of its journey, the aircraft got progressively farther away from the geostationary satellite’s position, located over a spot on the equator south of Pakistan, and never changed its heading in a direction that took it closer—at least for very long."



But to answer your question- maybe he was trying to fly in between islands, it looks like, and then turned south once he'd gone around the edge of Indonesia? This looks most likely, and I'm pretty sure they went south.

Now, I'll be honest, my pet theory has always looked more like this and landing at one of the many airports around there or many roads for that matter but the new radar data doesn't really seem to support it.

[Edited 2014-03-22 19:17:11]

[Edited 2014-03-22 19:18:49]

[Edited 2014-03-22 19:19:16]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: ltbewr
Posted 2014-03-22 19:23:56 and read 66749 times.

Another terrible and strange twist for the Malaysian Government and the families of victims - the Malaysian Formula 1 Grand Prix race is to be held next weekend and victims family have to leave the hotel in KL they were sent to as reserved for use by the Ferrari F1 team.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nascar...html;_ylt=AwrBJR.FRC5T0igAR9HQtDMD
Can this situation get any crazier ?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Mouldypete
Posted 2014-03-22 19:24:17 and read 66259 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 62):

I don't agree. The predicted north and south route starting point is based on the 3:11 and 4:11 Inmarsat pings, both showing the same distance from the satellite. Look at the image in my previous post.

Sorry but I am puzzled, I do not see a 3:11 'ping' location on the BBC map. As far as I am aware we have not been given any data on 'pings' and their relationships to the IOR Inmarsat satellite other than the last 'ping' at 8:11am. Also the pings give no location. Only the series of loci can give a track based on a straight flight path and normal cruising speed.

This is very clearly explained by icair in his sanity check.

The map in your last posting is quite clear in stating that the track and 'pings' are "Assumed and extrapolated NTSB solutions",

In fact the map shows only the "Last military radar contact" and again assumes this is the starting point for the two track solutions, one of which is preferred by the NTSB for other reasons.

Without a starting point for the tracks of the loci, the two 'solutions' can be rotated at will throughout the circle as long as none of the 'pings' falls within the range of any other Inmarsat satellites.

[Edited 2014-03-22 19:25:20]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-22 19:29:02 and read 66069 times.

Quoting Mouldypete (Reply 60):
The whole premise of the final prediction for both the southern and the northwestern track is promulgated from the "last known position" from radar.

OK, in part yes. But, Inmarsat obviously believe that by 3:11 the aircraft was at or near the 4:11 ping line (within the margin for error). If the a/c continued on its last know heading, based on primary radar, it would not have intersected the 3:11/4:11 ping line at the correct time.

Therefore, the Inmarsat data forced them to concluded that the a/c made an undocumented left turn to make the intersection with the 3:11/4:11 ping possible. The 3:11 location is thought to be approximately NIXUL.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: 747-600X
Posted 2014-03-22 19:29:28 and read 66127 times.

How is this still a matter of confusion? That map only shows ONE ping - the one indicated by the massive, red circle. There's only one ping shown. That's it; it's that simple. Really.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-22 19:34:39 and read 65905 times.

Quoting Mouldypete (Reply 67):
The map in your last posting is quite clear in stating that the track and 'pings' are "Assumed and extrapolated NTSB solutions",

I understand this, but as others have stated, they MUST have used all 7 ping calculations to come up with the most likely tracks.

When you put the publish north and south tracks on a map, this is what the hourly ping calculations must have shown them, otherwise they would not have concluded that these are the most likely tracks.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-22 20:08:38 and read 64438 times.

Quoting Mouldypete (Reply 67):
Without a starting point for the tracks of the loci, the two 'solutions' can be rotated at will throughout the circle as long as none of the 'pings' falls within the range of any other Inmarsat satellites.

Sure, but they DID go ahead and choose a starting point based on the data, and that starting point is not on the line of the a/c's last known heading.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: NAV30
Posted 2014-03-22 20:23:14 and read 64032 times.

Quoting SouthernBelle (Reply 51):
Doesn't look made up to me. Your take?

Agreed not made up, SouthernBelle- but as it happened I spent a bit of time in coastal artillery many years back. In those days all you got was fuzzy blips - though radar will probably have come on a bit since those days.  

However, I suspect that the guys who drew up the map/diagram you posted may have assumed that the pilots were using waypoints and drawn up the track accordingly. After all, the track is almost straight anyway, the aeroplane would in fact have passed pretty close to 'VAMPI' in any case.

So it remains possible, seems to me, that the aeroplane just flew a straight path, with both pilots incapacitated - while still passing close enough to the waypoints for the 'mappers' to assume that they were using them?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-22 20:41:58 and read 63137 times.

Please keep in mind that the purple track lines are "Published NTSB highest probability solutions*". Therefore, they MUST be based on the 7 pings, regardless of whether or not the pings have been published.

So I feel it is safe to assume that the ping rings, or loci, are representative of the actual Inmarsat ping results. It also follows that the 3:11 ping is the assumed starting point, and by 4:11 the a/c was still on the same loci.

Whoever came up with this image has not labelled 3:11 as the starting point, but that is what the tracks tell us.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-22 20:46:07 and read 62948 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 76):
It also follows that the 3:11 ping is the assumed starting point, and by 4:11 the a/c was still on the same loci.

Where in the world are you getting the data for 0311L and 0411L pings? That hasn't been published. What are you even talking about? How does "it follow"?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: dragon6172
Posted 2014-03-22 20:49:46 and read 62869 times.

Quoting SouthernBelle (Reply 43):
And therefore, as you can easily see, here's exactly the waypoints he was still using.

Agree with your assessment of the radar track. However, what you plotted on the Skyvector map appears incorrect. Seems to me that the radar track shown in the pictures you posted show the track going over Penang VOR, then making the right turn towards VAMPI.

I believe it should be this route:

http://skyvector.com/?ll=6.580213512...KC:A.WM.WMKP:F.WM.VAMPI:F.WM.MEKAR

Or perhaps I missed something, I took a break from the threads to attend a hockey game tonight!


Edited for link

[Edited 2014-03-22 20:55:34]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: monjonman
Posted 2014-03-22 21:27:13 and read 61432 times.

Have there been any more details released of the alleged phone call made before take off from the mystery woman who phoned captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah using a fake ID to purchase the sim card and why has she not come forward to speak with authorities?
You would have to ask why would someone use fake ID to purchase a sim card .I can not think of any reason other then to conceal your identity.The plot thickens!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-22 22:00:03 and read 60198 times.

At this point I'm going to remain faithful that the 2 purple "Published NTSB highest probability solutions*" are based on accurate data. So from that it follows that MH370 was at the intersection point of the 2 tracks at 3:11. To dispute this is to say that one of two tracks is mathematically impossible.

Once I realised this it dawned on me that the 3:11 ping point (the intersection point) is the most accurate point drawn. All other estimated location points become less and less likely.

Quite simply the NTSB believe that MH370 was at the intersection of the two tracks at 3:11. They have not said so, but that is the reality.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: 747megatop
Posted 2014-03-22 22:23:35 and read 59215 times.

Quoting fooflyboy (Reply 12):
Exactly. So no one chould be concerned about "privacy".

I would think so too. The video should be used only in the case of an incident; purely to improve safety. But, this would involve a big effort on the part of various govts to pass legistlations perhaps to safeguard the right of pilots and ensure that the video footage is used only for the purposes of investigating accidents and improvement of safety.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-22 22:54:18 and read 58161 times.

Quoting monjonman (Reply 67):
Have there been any more details released of the alleged phone call made before take off from the mystery woman who phoned captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah using a fake ID to purchase the sim card and why has she not come forward to speak with authorities?
You would have to ask why would someone use fake ID to purchase a sim card .I can not think of any reason other then to conceal your identity.The plot thickens!

But just because one might want to conceal their identity does not necessarily mean that they are planning a crime or are a criminal. Interesting nonetheless...

One a side note, I just came back from some spotting at SYD and the MH crew on the A333 9M-MTM gave one of the best waves I have seen whilst taxing out to 34L...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-22 22:54:47 and read 58587 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 10):
Save for the early rumors of the captain's family problems - that has later been proven false - there has been silence on this front ever since the disappearance.

If you want to look at the captain, why not look into the FO. I think the media prefers to go after the captain just because he has a simulator. The FO is a different story altogether. Apart from the cockpit visitors a while back, not many is known publicly. Talk with some in MH and a potentially dark story comes out. But, given his family's background, it's likely that it's being kept quiet at the moment. We'll see how it goes.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 16):
It might be important - but it could be important for exactly the opposite reason you think it is. .... and it's down to your own personal biases how you see it.

That is a very good point!

Quoting fooflyboy (Reply 17):
But I would hope that airlines would be more professionally managed and that abuse of monitoring systems would not occur.

That's the whole point. If every airlines can be more professional in using its present monitoring systems, then abuse of the system would not occur.
I wonder how having a camera would help in KI574, AF447, RA97004, MZ8968, and JT904 ? Bear in mind also RA97004 didn't have to take years, from accident day to final report release was under 6 months.
It also appears to me that the strongest advocators of cockpit camera for accident investigation purposes, are not, from the accident investigator background. So is this a "want to know for investigation" issue, or a "I don't trust/understand what the investigators are saying" issue?

Quoting Pihero (Reply 27):
Your post is puzzling, as so far no one has provided any evidence of all these trajectories or manoeuvres.
The only known facts are :
- A straightforward navigation to IGARI... and then nothing.
As a matter of fact the last known position - from FlightRadar (!!!) was a turn to the left, consistent to a direct track to IGARI ( confirmed by the Mickey Mouse Chinese COM translation), and starting a turn to fintercept the course to BITOD and subsequent route points.
Quoting Pihero (Reply 27):
AFAIK, the rest of the so-called radar contacts heve never been proven to be Flight 370. Not one.

I'll correct both you AND ME!   
The facts known as yesterday was different from what I wrote earlier, which was based on a non-official fact.
The know facts now:
1. Aircraft took off towards northwest at KUL. (Source: Press releases, and FR24)
2. Aircraft turned right direct to IGARI (a track heading of 025º) and climbed to FL350. (Press releases, and FR24)
3. "At IGARI" aircraft turned to the right to a track heading of 040º and headed towards BITOD. (FR24)
4. After a certain time prior to BITOD, aircraft transponders went off. (FR24 track)
5. Aircraft turned back towards mainland (Official)
6. So-called radar track has been "determined with great confidence to be that of MH370". (MH370 press conference 15 Mar by Prime Minister).
7. Aircraft seen on radar tracking out of Penang at a track consistent with VPG (Penang VOR) to VAMPI, in a reasonably straight but low meandering track. General direct track is about 285º to 290º (should be 288º). (Chinese Press conference, 21Mar).
8. After VAMPI, aircraft is seen tracking airway N571 away from Malaysia (track 287º), towards MEKAR and disappeared before MEKAR. Track is again, slow minor meandering. (Chinese Press conference 21Mar). Aircraft reported to be at FL295 prior to disappearance (By Air Force Chief, on MH370 press conference 15Mar).
Note: Chinese info on "military radar plot" writes 295R/200NM from PEN, but does not match the radar plot shown (290º at 230NM - 240NM is more like it).

Quoting Pihero (Reply 27):
For many people, the term *FIRE* has a very emotional connotation, and as such, the idea of an electrical fire is awfully difficult to accept... We have to say here that electricity doesn't burn... but it can communicate enough heat to flammable materials for them to catch fire...materials which are almost non-existent in our electronics bays.(See on this subject the AAIB report on the N786UA incident at LHR ).
But electrical components in the presence of arcing could emit quantities of potentially highly toxic fumes, i.e smoke.

Up until 14th March, I too avocated fire, of some sort.
I did put the Fire scenarios as:
1. Oxygen accelerated fire:
- Explains lack of comms.
- Ruled out by press release 14th March. This scenario simply does not allow for the aircraft to turn over PEN and head north west and continue flying for hours. It shouldn't even last until PEN.
2. "Simplified accelerated fire".
- Explains turn back.
- Explains the lack of comms at the initial stages only
- Fails at the transponder turns off combined with the turn towards northwest later on and flying for hours. It simply should not have lasted that long.
3. Electrical fire (added thanks to Pihero & Kiarahi)
- Explains turn back
- Explains lack of comms throughout.
- Does not explain turn at PEN to northwest.
- If it somehow can turn at PEN, the meandering flight path per military radar is explained (degraded navigation performance)

Now the "takeover scenario"
1. Simplified Hijacking
- Explains ALL the known flight paths.
- Can but does not automatically explain comms blackout transponder switch off with no other hints.
- Does not explain the ACARS disabling in combination with the above.
- Does not explain the slightly meandering path outbound PEN.
2. "Both crew" plane heist.
- Explains all the known flight paths.
- Explains all the comms blackouts including ACARS disabling.
- Explains all allegations of erratic aircraft behaviour except after it is outbound of PEN, because it wastes a lot of fuel.
- Motive extremely difficult to understand, if not "not-plausible". (We're talking about the Captain and the FO on opposites of the political spectrum in terms of family background).

3. "One crew" plane heist.
- Explains all the known flight path.
- Explans all the comms blackouts including ACARS disabling
- Explains all allegations of erratic aircraft behaviour including after the aircraft is outbound of PEN.
- Motive extremely difficult to understand, especially if wreckage does end up in the southern arc.

4. 3rd party plane heist.
- Explains all the above, except...
-- Timing of the comms and the turnback.
-- Meandering flight path out of PEN (wastes too much fuel).

Quoting SouthernBelle (Reply 43):
Have you not seen the newest radar data? I think it's very interesting.

It shows MH370 flying from waypoint VAMPI to MEKAR:

Many thanks for this!
---
Sleuthing Post (using Pihero's term!    )... A bit late with 2 weeks into the disappearance, but then I haven't had time to sit down and digest it so far...

I had a look at FR24 again,
Aircraft reached IGARI at 1720UTC at FL350 with a ground speed of 474kts, turned towards BITOD and was tracking 040° at 1721, but has no altitude information. It then disappeared off the ADS-B altogether.
I'll have to check the manuals again to see how this can happen. The ADS-B transmits at 2x a second to 1x per 8 seconds depending on the aircraft (need to look at it again). I want to look at this because if it's 2x a second there's a chance that a change of selection towards STBY on the transponder may have been caught.

I do wish the FR24 feedster at Kota Bharu would provide the raw ADS-B data... it could tell us a lot more of what happened just prior to disappearance.

We know that it would take 49-59mins (depending on how it's flown, 49mins is for normal flying at 475kts gndspd) to get between IGARI and VAMPI. That would make the aircraft reach VAMPI sometime between if it disappeared at 1721, add about 2 - 5 minutes for changes in speed, etc, we'd get there at 1811 to 1821UTC.
THY67 (A330-300, FL340, 374kts GS) reached VAMPI at about 1755, so I think we can throw that one out of any possibility.
While SIA68 had a possibility of a close encounter with MH370, we can now say for certain MH370 did not piggyback SIA68. It did not match the primary radar for any possibility of piggybacking further down the timeline.
1 aircraft did however reached VAMPI at 1817, which is Emirates343 (777-300), at FL340 at about 390kts gndspd at VAMPI. Based on FR24, this is the only suitable candidate for piggybacking... but would it make sense to piggyback this one as it was going to Dubai? Its a predictable path (N571 airway) does make it a perfect opportunity, but the question is, where would it go? It would be too far south to go anywhere the conspiracy theorists want to go to (about 100NM south of any part of Pakistan, if it wanted to go to say, those places conspiracy theorists say it would).
Until we've seen wreckage of the aircraft, we're not done yet with the northern arc... but...

Without ruling out the northern arc, the question then becomes "how did it go to the south without being detected?"
I did some calculations, from MEKAR... if it followed N571 until IGOGU on the border between Indian and Malaysia FIR (and should be out of primary radar), then head to TOPIN on the Indonesian FIR-SriLankan FIR border, and continued south along the border, you'd hit the endurance ring not too far from the reported sightings of the debris are. The time it takes from VAMPI to reach TOPIN via IGOGU, is about 50 mins, makes the arrival at IGOGU at around 3:11... now this matches those so-called intermediate pings and their position lines. It also explains the two probable lines is reflected off each other along the line roughly from 00N64E on 080º/260º line... which covers... TOPIN.

The NTSB extrapolated lines show the furthest probably extent along the final ping arcs north and south. Anything east of it, is more likely to be west of it.

---

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 20):
Would the auto-pilot adjust for one engine running out of fuel before the other or disengage ?
Quoting ltbewr (Reply 20):
If the loss of an engine due to fuel starvation (as happened in the Helios flight) and the auto is still on, and no one flying, would the a/c continue on it's original path but with difficulty ?
Quoting ltbewr (Reply 20):
Would the a/c glide straight ahead on the last autopilot setting, doing a 'belly' landing, or stall and go into a flat spin (like I believe AF 447 did) or go into a steep dive ?
Quoting ltbewr (Reply 20):
Would the a/c pitch nose down or tail down or go to left or right (depending on which engine cut out first) and crash 'pinwheel' style ?

Going to have to dig in to the books for the answer to that, but I need my rest first.

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 26):
I have a hard time imagining many scenarios where the flight crew or passengers are conscious as the plane continued flying the track it did for 7 or so hours without anyone noticing or attempting to do something. That sort of scenario also assumes the flight attendants were unaware or unable to affect what was going on as well. I can't think of any flight I've ever flown on as an airline employee or passenger where the cabin crew didn't speak to the pilots several times during a flight.

Sentiments shared.

Quoting GZed (Reply 68):
Once I realised this it dawned on me that the 3:11 ping point (the intersection point) is the most accurate point drawn. All other estimated location points become less and less likely.

The 3:11 ping is still an arc, but it's one that's not too wide... it's no more than the same sector angle as the missing final ping line. I'd say the 3:11 ping arc is no more than 400nm across (guess? Maybe am far off... haven't started calculating yet). But it's about 1700NM radius from N00E64.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: seb146
Posted 2014-03-22 23:12:18 and read 57856 times.

So, if (and I am just speculating) IF the debris floating in the south Indian Ocean really is MH370, could any of that debris wash ashore in Australia? I don't know anything about the currents there is why I ask.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-22 23:27:38 and read 57361 times.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 72):
So, if (and I am just speculating) IF the debris floating in the south Indian Ocean really is MH370, could any of that debris wash ashore in Australia? I don't know anything about the currents there is why I ask.

The Indian Ocean current chart I saw moves anti-clockwise, so debris in the Southern Indian Ocean would first move from West to East before moving North in an anti-clockwise pattern. So, if the possible Chinese debris image was 120kms or so South South West (which is what I saw reported) of the possible debris the Australians saw, then they should be moving towards the area where the possible Australian debris were spotted and following those debris in the current towards the North East, up towards Perth. I'm sure that some debris would one day was ashore somewhere if MH370 did indeed go down in the sea. I just hope they are still following other leads and searching in other areas as it has been some days since these images were released and nothing has been confirmed yet and it may not even be MH370 related as well...

[Edited 2014-03-22 23:30:25]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-23 00:03:05 and read 55903 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 71):
The 3:11 ping is still an arc, but it's one that's not too wide... it's no more than the same sector angle as the missing final ping line. I'd say the 3:11 ping arc is no more than 400nm across (guess? Maybe am far off... haven't started calculating yet). But it's about 1700NM radius from N00E64.

I shouldn't have used the word "point" for the 3:11 ping. Of course it is a small arc, resulting from the Inmarsat ping margin of error. It's even more correct to call it a small area rather than a small arc, because the margin of error has an effect in all directions with regards to calculating this location.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: B777fan
Posted 2014-03-23 00:04:41 and read 55864 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 65):
How does "it follow"?

You're correct that the data hasn't been published yet but I think this might help explain what he is getting at.

We know there were hourly pings. The NTSB has made some inferences from the data and published possible tracks.

All he is saying is, if those tracks are correct - a big if - then we can infer the existence of the other ping arcs and their location without them being published.

So even though this well known chart is making up intermediate ping locations, those locations are reasonable for the NTSB's tracks. In fact if the aircraft took one of those tracks they must be correct within some reasonable margin of error.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: NAV30
Posted 2014-03-23 00:09:35 and read 55916 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 71):
Does not explain turn at PEN to northwest.

First of all, thanks for the meticulous and informative post.  

About Penang, I said a couple of threads ago that I thought that, in the event of having to turn and 'land back,' the pilots would have headed north of any direct course to Penang, because there were mountains in the way. And that I'd have expected them to stay north of those, and instead head for an airport closer to ground level (that is, an airport to the north of the mountains).

If you cut Penang out of the path they are believed to have flown, the VOR-to-VOR course shown in the maps is just about 'spot on.'

So maybe they didn't fly over Penang at all - and someone just made a mistake drawing up the published map? If that is so, the 'pilots incapacitated, aircraft follows last commanded course until fuel gives out' theory appears to be right back in contention again?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Razza74
Posted 2014-03-23 00:09:59 and read 56428 times.

Here in Perth there is a North-South current called the Leeuwin Current, this brings warm water from the tropics South along the Western Australian coast and this may prevent debris from washing up on the West Australian coast
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leeuwin_Current

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: monjonman
Posted 2014-03-23 00:32:48 and read 55491 times.

Quoting Razza74 (Reply 77):

Yeah if anything was to wash up it would more likely be along the southern coast towards South Australia or west coast of Tasmania unless it is able to float across the top of the water in which case the winds could push it towards Perth.
With us heading into the winter months I would expect that the debri would push further north with the storm fronts.But lets not get too far ahead of ourselves just yet.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: rj777
Posted 2014-03-23 00:48:46 and read 54934 times.

Let's just hope it doesn't float south towards Antarctica!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: p51tang
Posted 2014-03-23 01:23:13 and read 54047 times.

Quote: The purpose of the hourly "handshakes" is to allow the satellite to know the approximate location of the aircraft so that it can efficiently relay any messages. For this, the satellite needs to know the angle of the aircraft from the satellite.

An aircraft directly under the satellite would be at a 90 degree angle to the satellite; an aircraft at the poles would be at 0 degrees.

In the case of Malaysia Airlines 370, authorities have said, the last message sent was at 40 degrees.

Accident investigators, with the help of satellite experts, have used that information to determine the possible location of the plane.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/17/wo...370/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

I agree with Mandella499 (Quote)

3. "One crew" plane heist.
- Explains all the known flight path.
- Explans all the comms blackouts including ACARS disabling
- Explains all allegations of erratic aircraft behaviour including after the aircraft is outbound of PEN.
- Motive extremely difficult to understand, especially if wreckage does end up in the southern arc.

4. 3rd party plane heist.
- Explains all the above, except...
-- Timing of the comms and the turnback.
-- Meandering flight path out of PEN (wastes too much fuel).

In addition to this: Was the reason it flew to 45,000ft by either (One crew/Third party) to Asphyxiate the passengers so that there was no repeat of Flight 93?.I'd also like to know the evidence supplied so far, that confirms that MH370 reached 45,000 ft.

1/ Do terrorists route the Plane around Indonesia and then gun it for the South??,or go for maximum collateral damage and just re-route the 777 shortly into the intended flight plan, and fly it into the Petronas Twin Towers in Malaysia?.

2/ Does a Captain usher the co-pilot out of the flight-deck and Asphyxiate everyone in the cabin at 45,000ft?,and then route the plane strategically around Indonesia so as to avoid land based radar?.That way, he gives himself and the plane the best possible head start for the subsequent ditching in the Southern Indian Ocean.Because he knows that the Black-Boxes can only transmit their location at depths of up to 6,100m.And where he's going to bring it down using precise co-ordinates, is well in excess of that.

Aside from this,I cannot accept the fact that Boeing or any Aircraft Manufacturer for that matter, offers
the ability to turn off ACARS manually.Why??.Who the heck installs GPS tracking into their car for
security purposes, and then switches it off manually before leaving it in the car-park at the Airport?.
Anyone?.No?.O.k........

ACARS and or GPS Equivalent needs to be secured behind the console,where it cannot be
tampered with.

Not a simple matter of undoing a few console screws and dis-mounting the system.

No good Sir!.....

[Edited 2014-03-23 01:46:25]

[Edited 2014-03-23 02:04:39]

[Edited 2014-03-23 02:17:48]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Sandgroper
Posted 2014-03-23 01:25:09 and read 54365 times.

The Chinese Ilyushins mistakenly landed at Perth International Airport yesterday instead of Pearce:

http://aegwaspotters.blogspot.com.au...lyushin-il-76mdtd-20541-21045.html

And after a quick 10 minute flight they joined the rest of the search force at the correct airport Pearce 35km north, here reported on WA Today, language barriers reported could be an issue with this muli national search:

http://www.watoday.com.au/world/chin...s-flight-mh370-20140323-35ar5.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-23 01:37:01 and read 53768 times.

Quoting GZed (Reply 74):
I shouldn't have used the word "point" for the 3:11 ping. Of course it is a small arc, resulting from the Inmarsat ping margin of error.

Don't worry about it too much... I know what you meant... just wanted to make sure the others know what you mean.  
Quoting NAV30 (Reply 76):
About Penang, I said a couple of threads ago that I thought that, in the event of having to turn and 'land back,' the pilots would have headed north of any direct course to Penang, because there were mountains in the way. And that I'd have expected them to stay north of those, and instead head for an airport closer to ground level (that is, an airport to the north of the mountains).

The highest grid MORA from IGARI to PEN is 7000ft. No biggie.
But, the Malaysian east coast has Kota Bharu and Kuantan airports, which are wayyyy nearer than PEN (or as others have thought... LGK).

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 76):
So maybe they didn't fly over Penang at all - and someone just made a mistake drawing up the published map? If that is so, the 'pilots incapacitated, aircraft follows last commanded course until fuel gives out' theory appears to be right back in contention again?

Unfortunately, no. The radar track showed that the aircraft ended up outbound on a 285-290 deg track from PEN but the plot does not show it flying over PEN, but... have a look yourself...
http://i60.tinypic.com/30kf61x.jpg
IGARI is to the east north east (bearing 060 roughly) out of PEN...
So, for the aircraft to have gone into where it is shown on the plot above, the basic incapacitation theory goes out of the window. Complex ones can still occur though, but one needs to be careful about the potential timelines.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: monjonman
Posted 2014-03-23 01:38:23 and read 53468 times.

Quoting Sandgroper (Reply 81):

Well I guess at least they got the right city and not Perth Tasmania!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-23 01:44:41 and read 53364 times.

Quoting p51tang (Reply 80):
Accident investigators, with the help of satellite experts, have used that information to determine the possible location of the plane.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/17/wo...370/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

and a quote from the article above dated 17 March:
"We're trying to get up to speed on what that means and how to interpret it," one U.S. official told reporters. "It's sort of a new technology for us."
"We have never had to use satellite handshaking as the best possible source of information," the official said.

IMO one more reason to release RTD and margin of error data for all recorded pings.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-23 01:51:14 and read 53379 times.

Quoting p51tang (Reply 80):
An aircraft directly under the satellite would be at a 90 degree angle to the satellite; an aircraft at the poles would be at 0 degrees.

At the poles it would be out of coverage, hence would be at less than 0º... but 0º doesn't apply to the poles only (just to make that clear for those merely reading this)... as evident with:
Quoting p51tang (Reply 80):
Aside from this,I cannot accept the fact that Boeing or any Aircraft Manufacturer for that matter, offers the ability to turn off ACARS manually.Why??.Who the heck installs GPS tracking into their car for
security purposes, and then switches it off manually before leaving it in the car-park at the Airport?.
Anyone?.No?.O.k........

I can... Those things are optional, and each message costs money.
If this is GPS tracking in a car, imagine if you've had it installed and it costs $1000 a month for the messages the device is sending. If you can't uninstall it, you'd want to switch it off. Besides, what do you do when it sends erroneous messages continuously?
Now if the messages aren't expensive, people will be more willing to not be able to switch it off.

So, ACARS is also configurable, you can have it sending messages for positions every 5 seconds if you want (if you want to blow your money away), or send every 6 hours (if you want to be stingy)... so what makes a "disable VHF/SatCom/Both" so different?

The car I used in the example, may cost about $1000 in messages using ACARS... depending on the intervals, and the type of messages (eg: aircraft health monitoring), that can easily go up to $10,000... and when things go wrong (and they do, you can easily add another 50% on top of that. That adds about 20 cents to every single hour you fly to your ticket price.

Quoting p51tang (Reply 80):
Not a simple matter of undoing a few console screws and dis-mounting the system.

On a VHF only ACARS... all you need is to switch the VHF channel used for data, to voice... and bye bye ACARS.
In the case of this aircraft, no, no need to even undoing a few screws... I can put the transponders on standby (ie: off), turn off and VHF ACARS in less than 5 seconds, and another 10 seconds and the whole ACARS can be disabled (through the menu from the MFD, "uncheck" VHF Acars, "uncheck Satcom Acars"...)...

[Edited 2014-03-23 01:55:58]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: tim73
Posted 2014-03-23 02:18:17 and read 52236 times.

So the pinging in black boxes works for 30 days, right? So they got 15 days to go.

“It certainly depends on the location,” Sarah McComb, chief of the recorders division at the National Transportation Safety Board, said Tuesday. “I don’t think the range is quite five to 10 miles, but there are a lot of different factors involved. It also can be compromised if it’s buried in silt or sand.”

So with five mile radius it has about 50 square mile/130 square km coverage area. With 600 000 square kilometer search area it is less than 0.02 percent or 1:4615 per sonar buoy dropped. Wtihout ping...just forget finding it. And there is no guarantee it is inside that area.

[Edited 2014-03-23 02:44:23]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: p51tang
Posted 2014-03-23 02:40:22 and read 51471 times.



Quoting mandala499 (Reply 71):
I had a look at FR24 again,
Aircraft reached IGARI at 1720UTC at FL350 with a ground speed of 474kts, turned towards BITOD and was tracking 040° at 1721, but has no altitude information. It then disappeared off the ADS-B altogether.

Seems to me that 475kts is the trade off between (urgency and flight range).Am I right in suggesting that the normal cruising speed for the 777 is approx 490kts?.To a maximum of 512kts.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777

[Edited 2014-03-23 03:01:48]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Shmendr
Posted 2014-03-23 02:50:00 and read 51726 times.

CNN just quoted (5:50am EST) Malaysian Defense/Transportation minister stating that he has received new satellite images from the French authorities showing debris in the south Indian Ocean.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: GZed
Posted 2014-03-23 02:50:42 and read 51521 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 71):
I did some calculations, from MEKAR... if it followed N571 until IGOGU on the border between Indian and Malaysia FIR (and should be out of primary radar), then head to TOPIN on the Indonesian FIR-SriLankan FIR border, and continued south along the border, you'd hit the endurance ring not too far from the reported sightings of the debris are. The time it takes from VAMPI to reach TOPIN via IGOGU, is about 50 mins, makes the arrival at IGOGU at around 3:11.

For those of you wanting a visual representation of what mandala499 just said, click here:

http://skyvector.com/?ll=4.175498331...7:F.WM.NILAM:F.VO.IGOGU:F.VC.TOPIN

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: art
Posted 2014-03-23 03:24:17 and read 49618 times.

Quoting Shmendr (Reply 89):
CNN just quoted (5:50am EST) Malaysian Defense/Transportation minister stating that he has received new satellite images from the French authorities showing debris in the south Indian Ocean.

Any indication of the position of this (possible) debris?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: monjonman
Posted 2014-03-23 03:43:15 and read 49041 times.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-fXhAIqFO4&list=UU4onRb7Ythq0ud2VyzxthLg
I have not seen this video posted yet from AMSA which went up a couple of hours ago on youtube ,so here it is .

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: cand
Posted 2014-03-23 04:20:28 and read 47408 times.

Quoting p51tang (Reply 80):
3. "One crew" plane heist.- Explains all the known flight path.- Explans all the comms blackouts including ACARS disabling- Explains all allegations of erratic aircraft behaviour including after the aircraft is outbound of PEN.- Motive extremely difficult to understand, especially if wreckage does end up in the southern arc.

Possible motive: political blackmail (release captain's uncle from jail), maybe planned to blackmail during flight (like the heist to Geneva a few weeks ago). Then something went wrong and plane ends up flying by itself.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: art
Posted 2014-03-23 04:22:06 and read 47286 times.

If only the UK still had Nimrods - I believe that max endurance was 22 hours which would have enabled each aircraft to spend many hours in the search area before needing to head back to base. With that sort of endurance each aircraft might have been able to search for the entire duration of adequate daylight in contrast to the 1-2 hours some of the assets spend on station.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Airvan00
Posted 2014-03-23 04:33:37 and read 46850 times.

Quoting Sandgroper (Reply 81):
The Chinese Ilyushins mistakenly landed at Perth International Airport yesterday instead of Pearce:

I expect they knew exactly what they were doing.
The international requirements for entering Australia, specify what ports are acceptable, usually those with full time Customs facilities.
The journalist just assumed that they got it wrong.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-23 04:41:48 and read 46504 times.

Quoting art (Reply 93):

If only the UK still had Nimrods - I believe that max endurance was 22 hours which would have enabled each aircraft to spend many hours in the search area before needing to head back to base. With that sort of endurance each aircraft might have been able to search for the entire duration of adequate daylight in contrast to the 1-2 hours some of the assets spend on station.

This was already covered a couple of threads ago. Endurance of 16-20 hours is only possible if almost the entire flight time is spent at endurance speeds. Given the 3-4 hours to travel each way to and from the search area, the loiter endurance is more like 2-3 hours.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: ChaosTheory
Posted 2014-03-23 04:52:05 and read 45867 times.

Quoting art (Reply 93):
If only the UK still had Nimrods - I believe that max endurance was 22 hours which would have enabled each aircraft to spend many hours in the search area before needing to head back to base. With that sort of endurance each aircraft might have been able to search for the entire duration of adequate daylight in contrast to the 1-2 hours some of the assets spend on station.

According to parliamentary publications, the MRA4 would have had a 2400nm range with 3 hours on station in a SAR capacity. In this instance, I would imagine a loiter time of 5-6 hours max for the Nimord:

http://www.publications.parliament.u.../cmselect/cmdfence/761/761vw15.htm

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: uta999
Posted 2014-03-23 04:54:44 and read 46010 times.

Quoting David Meany

From BBC News website

In today's world why do we still have to rely on finding two metal boxes at the bottom of the ocean to find out what happened - surely the technology must exist for aircraft to automatically transmit flight data direct to the cloud?


I agree, it's now time that real-time location (speed, Alt plus lat-long becomes a legal requirement. Refreshed every 60 seconds, it could act as ATC radar over remote areas and the oceans, as well as reducing the 60nm separation.

It could also open up longer routes over water, knowing that any incident would be quickly located and a rescue organised.

If a flight deviates from flight plan, it would turn RED on ATC and military radar. Prompting a response.

Other data could also be sent via satellite to indicate a major failure/incident with an aircraft system, or unusual crew action onboard.

Much of the data sent now is benign. Showing the aircraft is working normally. In future only abnormal data should be sent.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: tim73
Posted 2014-03-23 05:23:44 and read 44656 times.

One thing is clear, we treat oceans as our personal junkyard  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-23 05:25:29 and read 44579 times.

Quoting uta999 (Reply 97):

Quoting David Meany

From BBC News website

In today's world why do we still have to rely on finding two metal boxes at the bottom of the ocean to find out what happened - surely the technology must exist for aircraft to automatically transmit flight data direct to the cloud?


I agree, it's now time that real-time location (speed, Alt plus lat-long becomes a legal requirement. Refreshed every 60 seconds, it could act as ATC radar over remote areas and the oceans, as well as reducing the 60nm separation.

It could also open up longer routes over water, knowing that any incident would be quickly located and a rescue organised.

If a flight deviates from flight plan, it would turn RED on ATC and military radar. Prompting a response.

Other data could also be sent via satellite to indicate a major failure/incident with an aircraft system, or unusual crew action onboard.

Much of the data sent now is benign. Showing the aircraft is working normally. In future only abnormal data should be sent.

We may be progressing towards the real-time data age. However consider this. Real time data is well within the achievable, but it is not without cost. Is it worth adding US$0.50 to every single ticket in order to solve the one crash in over thirty years that so far has no physical evidence a month or two faster? The one flight in a billion? The extreme outlier? If we're going to spend money on aviation safety, there must be a dozen better investments that will have a more significant impact on survivability than real-time streaming telemetry. Howe about we spend money on those instead? Faster FANS implementation worldwide would be start. Or how about zero viz taxiing systems?

If it were a matter of saving lives, I would be all for real time black box streaming, at least if the price were reasonable. But I seriously doubt that real-time data streaming black box technology would save any lives.

Black boxes are not about search and rescue. They are about investigation and figuring out how to avoid this accident happening again. Black boxes are about figuring things out once everyone is dead. They don't save the lives of the people on the flight. They save the lives of the people on all the flights in the future.

- Longer routes over water are not now or have ever been limited by black boxes. They are limited by engine out diversion times.
- Deviations from the flight plan happen all time. If such things created alerts, there would be so many alerts they would create clutter which drowned out actual emergencies.

[Edited 2014-03-23 05:29:42]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: tim73
Posted 2014-03-23 05:29:29 and read 44305 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 99):
We may be progressing towards the real-time data age. However consider this. Real time data is well within the achievable, but it is not without cost

At least transponders should not be able to shutdown from the plane while flying or at least should be able to turn on by radar if needed.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-23 05:34:49 and read 44161 times.

Quoting tim73 (Reply 100):

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 99):
We may be progressing towards the real-time data age. However consider this. Real time data is well within the achievable, but it is not without cost

At least transponders should not be able to shutdown from the plane while flying or at least should be able to turn on by radar if needed

We've been through this numerous times in this discussion. The transponder can be turned off for a several reasons, one being power cycling in case of malfunction. More importantly, you want to be able to pull the circuit breaker for any system on the plane in case of malfunction for safety reasons. Electrical arcing and fires in flight are bad Feng Shui.

One flight in a billion may be lost because it could not be tracked, but many many more would crash due to electrical fires if stuff could not be turned off.

Ask any airline pilot what he or she is most afraid of, and the answer is typically "fire". A transponder that cannot be turned off would add a significant hazard to each and every flight without providing a tangible safety benefit. Whether MH370 has been hijacked, diverted to an airfield in Pakistan or crashed into the ocean due to a malfunction, a transponder without an off switch would almost certainly not have made any difference to the lives of the passengers and crew.

[Edited 2014-03-23 05:35:45]

[Edited 2014-03-23 05:36:00]

[Edited 2014-03-23 05:36:37]

[Edited 2014-03-23 05:38:32]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: alfons
Posted 2014-03-23 05:36:17 and read 44314 times.

Quoting tim73 (Reply 98):
In today's world why do we still have to rely on finding two metal boxes at the bottom of the ocean to find out what happened - surely the technology must exist for aircraft to automatically transmit flight data direct to the cloud?

Because in today's (commercial) world, everything is weighted by the proportion of business need/investition (capex, opex). Luckily, airplanes still fall rarely (and will fall more rarely hopefully in the future) from sky, and therefore such an increase in capex and opex is seen as not necessary as usually, a plane's lifecycle ends in a normal way (scrapped).

Something will happen here only if NTSB or IATA or whatever big and strong airline business authority puts up such a new, binding policy. But if satellite vendors and service providers start to smell a market here as they feel such a policy might arrive, it could lower the rental prices drastically due to economy of scale. And that can be the breakthrough.

We just can hope.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: uta999
Posted 2014-03-23 05:36:55 and read 44409 times.

Radar is reaching the end of its shelf life.

In future, aircraft will be controlled in 3D real-time based on Satellite information.

It's worth starting that move now

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-23 05:40:40 and read 44304 times.

Quoting uta999 (Reply 103):

Radar is reaching the end of its shelf life.

In future, aircraft will be controlled in 3D real-time based on Satellite information.

It's worth starting that move now

I don't think you understand how the technology works. There is nothing magic about satellites.

If the pilots turn off transmission from the plane, how can satellites know where the plane is? Radar and similar technologies are the only way to track items that do not transmit information.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: DTW2HYD
Posted 2014-03-23 05:42:18 and read 44358 times.

How twin engine jets like A319 and few other business jets are able to participate in this search? What kind of ETOPS rating they need or no need for that.

May be it is time to put all sparingly used or stored quads for good use.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: tim73
Posted 2014-03-23 05:51:52 and read 43799 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 101):
One flight in a billion may be lost because it could not be tracked, but many many more would crash due to electrical fires if stuff could not be turned off.

Then it should be connected to automatic fire alarm system and sends a code indicating fire before shutdown. The pilot should not be able to turn it off without somekind message sent before by the system.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-23 06:04:30 and read 43305 times.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 27):
As a matter of fact the last known position - from FlightRadar (!!!) was a turn to the left, consistent to a direct track to IGARI ( confirmed by the Mickey Mouse Chinese COM translation), and starting a turn to fintercept the course to BITOD and subsequent route points.

FR24's track ends with a turn to the right, actually. In the last data the heading is 25, then 28, then 40 degrees. BITOD is a right turn from IGARI for MH370.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: atnight
Posted 2014-03-23 06:05:20 and read 43335 times.

I have a question, is Boeing doing anything to assist locating the airplane? I have not heard anything or seen any news report concerning Boeing and whether its assisting in any way. If they have, I have missed it and would like to be informed, because until something is proven, it can very well be an issue with the aircraft itself which could end up being an issue Boeing will have to fix... so the passive form in which Boeing has acted doesn't show a lot of concern and gives a bad impression... it really seems a lot different from the AF447 accident, in which case Airbus was a lot more involved in searching for the airplane and later in the recovery process. So hopefully Boeing is indeed doing all it can (could at least pay some of the costs) to locate the missing aircraft and get some answers.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-23 06:10:35 and read 43460 times.



Quoting GZed (Reply 89):
For those of you wanting a visual representation of what mandala499 just said, click here:
http://skyvector.com/?ll=4.175498331...7:F.WM.NILAM:F.VO.IGOGU:F.VC.TOPIN

Allow me to be picky...  biggrin 
This is a better version: http://bit.ly/1ir4SqS

Quoting uta999 (Reply 97):
I agree, it's now time that real-time location (speed, Alt plus lat-long becomes a legal requirement. Refreshed every 60 seconds, it could act as ATC radar over remote areas and the oceans, as well as reducing the 60nm separation.

Refreshed every 60 seconds? OMG! ADS-B can already do it at 2x a second! Why downgrade? But then, hey, ADS-B is useless once you switch the transponder off...
So let's go with SatCom... many systems can now transmit position data every 5 seconds or pool per second data and send it per 5 seconds... BUT... the costs are just going to explode.

Quoting uta999 (Reply 97):
It could also open up longer routes over water, knowing that any incident would be quickly located and a rescue organised.

ETOPS requirements anyone? You're limited by the rules allowing you to operate for how long on a single engine should an engine fail. Knowing where the aircraft is, technology is already there and some airlines have used it without mandatory legislation, and this way, more airlines will take it up at reasonable cost. Make it mandatory, and the prices for such a service and equipment will be ridiculous. AF447 shows that even if you have a good position data when it goes down, it'll still take a few days to get there and find it.

Quoting uta999 (Reply 97):
If a flight deviates from flight plan, it would turn RED on ATC and military radar. Prompting a response.

Flights deviate on a regular basis. How much of a deviation are you going to allow? None? Then the system will bog down and crash on itself. And if you turn off your transponder, the military would know the flight's gone "red", but determining if it's in distress or whether it's been hijacked, we have nothing except for interception.

Quoting uta999 (Reply 97):
Much of the data sent now is benign. Showing the aircraft is working normally. In future only abnormal data should be sent.
Other data could also be sent via satellite to indicate a major failure/incident with an aircraft system, or unusual crew action onboard.
OK, do this and expect flight costs to go up... these so-called benign data are often:
- Aircraft position (speed, position, altitude, etc).... isn't this what you asked for?
- Aircraft health monitoring... what's the engines burning per hour plus what's the gross weight. This is used for performance monitoring, monitor aircraft performance degradation and also allow trend monitoring... benign? No, on the contrary, this is to allow preventive action by maintenance to make flying safer and cheaper.
- Cut the transmissions to abnormal data only? OK... then forget "late gate connection information", or even "missed connection planning" by the airline for you... and also, forget preventive maintenance action to intercept and replace problem parts of the aircraft system before it even makes it to the headlines in terms of a diversion or (God forbid) a mayday call.

Quoting uta999 (Reply 103):
Radar is reaching the end of its shelf life.
In future, aircraft will be controlled in 3D real-time based on Satellite information.
It's worth starting that move now

You have got to be kidding me. An aircraft "going dark", radar is your best bet on tracking it... and the primary radars...
ADS-B is the next best thing after secondary radar, and it enables better coverage for "below the earth's curvature" as ADS-B sites are cheaper than radar sites... which are still cheaper than satellites.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 104):
I don't think you understand how the technology works. There is nothing magic about satellites.

He forgets that relying solely on satellite is inherently risky, and expensive.

Uta999,
What frequency band is going to be used? Weather proof in civil, you're going to get L-band or S-band... these frequency bands are quickly being gobbled up by cellular operators and wireless data links in the IT business. The L-band terrestrial-space use co-frequency concept of Lightsquared sorta went up in smoke (well, in the form of bankruptcy) because it was not financially feasible (not yet anyway). If you want to go to Ku band or Ka band, you're going to need a lot of power hence more money and larger antennas to get through weather... on aircraft this will then have drag and fuel burn issues.
These satellite communications system rely on beam steering from the aircraft to the satellite if you want to keep transmission power relatively low and cheap... now the problem is... how you going to deal with the aircraft being inverted? Lose the datalink? How else you going to get coverage on this guy who's upside down? Radar? Oh hang on, you just scrapped the radar system... Oh well, ADS-B then? :p
And then what do you do when there are outages (such as solar blindspot on the ground earth station)? How are you going to cover that?
The list can go on and on...

Quoting alfons (Reply 102):
Something will happen here only if NTSB or IATA or whatever big and strong airline business authority puts up such a new, binding policy. But if satellite vendors and service providers start to smell a market here as they feel such a policy might arrive, it could lower the rental prices drastically due to economy of scale. And that can be the breakthrough.

They lower prices if they're not selling well. If they're selling well, they'll increase the price of the bandwidth. On the equipment front, yes, economies of scale can reduce the capital acquisition costs of satcom systems.. but hey, some tracking systems that are as robust as the aircraft's own internal avionics can cost as little as $1000-2000... At the end of the day, whether we talk about the $1000-2000 system or the $100,000 - $1 million systems, what matters is "how much does the service cost?"... this has been the question airlines have time and time again asked.

Besides, satcom position for ATC purposes is already mandatory for North Atlantic... give it time, more oceanic areas will adopt the same measures... but read above again... if it can be switched off... will you refuse it? If it can't be switched off, will you regret it when you're trying to breathe in a smoke filled aircraft because the damn thing arc-ed and started a fire in a place with no fire suppression and the pilots are already incapacitated if not dead?

[Edited 2014-03-23 06:14:14]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-23 06:21:40 and read 42882 times.

Quoting tim73 (Reply 106):
Then it should be connected to automatic fire alarm system and sends a code indicating fire before shutdown. The pilot should not be able to turn it off without somekind message sent before by the system.

OK, let's start a fake fire... alarm goes off... switches it off... 
Or better, just cut the damn wire if you can...

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 107):
FR24's track ends with a turn to the right, actually. In the last data the heading is 25, then 28, then 40 degrees. BITOD is a right turn from IGARI for MH370.

Hurray! At least someone noticed the 040 track prior to the turnaround!   

Quoting atnight (Reply 108):
so the passive form in which Boeing has acted doesn't show a lot of concern and gives a bad impression... it really seems a lot different from the AF447 accident, in which case Airbus was a lot more involved in searching for the airplane and later in the recovery process. So hopefully Boeing is indeed doing all it can (could at least pay some of the costs) to locate the missing aircraft and get some answers.

Airbus knew the aircraft was having problems based on the ACARS CWC messages the aircraft sent... and it was having problems that was already known... (pitot icing) so in that case it was important for Airbus to get involved because they needed to know if there was something else that made that flight crash while all the others who had the same problem didn't... (that's why it was paying for some of the recovery cost... not the search cost).

Boeing's case at the moment, there's nothing to go on... Sure they are already involved and doing all they can, but seriously, what can they do? Just because they don't appear to be giving results doesn't mean that Boeing is just sitting there watching this one go by at it's own pace... We haven't stated going to the recovery phase, it's still in the search phase. Manufacturers don't really like to pay on the search phase...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: jox
Posted 2014-03-23 06:29:17 and read 42381 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 110):
Hurray! At least someone noticed the 040 track prior to the turnaround!   

FR24 themselves noticed this. They posted the text below on their Facebook page on March 9.

======

The ADS-B transponder of an aircraft is transmitting data twice per second. FR24 saves data every 10-60 second depending on altitude. On cruising altitude data is normally saved once per 60 seconds. By analyzing all our databases and logs we have managed to recover about 2 signals per minute for the last 10 minutes.

The last location tracked by Flightradar24 is
Time UTC: 17:21:03
Lat: 6.97
Lon: 103.63
Alt: 35000
Speed: 471 knots
Heading: 40

Between 17:19 and 17:20 the aircraft was changing heading from 25 to 40 degrees, which is probably completely according to flight plan as MH370 on both 4 March and 8 March did the same at the same position. Last 2 signals are both showing that the aircraft is heading in direction 40 degrees.

Today there are reports in media that MH370 may have turned around. FR24 have not tracked this. This could have happened if the aircraft suddenly lost altitude as FR24 coverage in that area is limited to about 30000 feet

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-23 06:31:34 and read 42138 times.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 70):
7. Aircraft seen on radar tracking out of Penang at a track consistent with VPG (Penang VOR) to VAMPI, in a reasonably straight but low meandering track. General direct track is about 285º to 290º (should be 288º). (Chinese Press conference, 21Mar).
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 82):
Unfortunately, no. The radar track showed that the aircraft ended up outbound on a 285-290 deg track from PEN but the plot does not show it flying over PEN, but...

Do you know whether radar altitudes have been published for the whole track recorded by the military radar shown of the slide entitled "Military radar from Pulau Perak to last plot at 02:22H"?

Looking at that slide and if we assume that the radar was operational the whole time, I would propose the following explanation for the radar plots:
- all numbers below are approximate and all altitudes MSL
- I assume the radar is at Buttterworth AB as shown on the slide That is near Penang and at sea level for all practical purposes
- close to Penang, it is not clear what the plane was doing
- 36nm from the radar, returns are strong and consistent. The plane must be flying at 1,000ft or higher
- 67nm out. returns weaken and disappear 97nm out. Therefore the plane must be flying around 5,000ft at that point.
- 167nm out, the aircraft reappears because it is climbing through 18,000ft
- 220nm, radar contact is lost as would be expected with the aircraft around 32,000ft

That does not look like a plane flying on its own.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-23 06:35:10 and read 42148 times.

Quoting tim73 (Reply 100):

At least transponders should not be able to shutdown from the plane while flying or at least should be able to turn on by radar if needed.
Quoting tim73 (Reply 106):

Then it should be connected to automatic fire alarm system and sends a code indicating fire before shutdown. The pilot should not be able to turn it off without somekind message sent before by the system.

Don't mean to be rude, but you don't seem to know much about air operations. Just 2 flights ago I had to shut off the transponder and turn it back on again because it wasn't working. That wasn't the first nor will it be the last time that has happened.

I supposed you are also for automatic fire suppression systems and no shut off capabilities of the CVR and the FDR too? What about packs and the outflow valve? The pilots can use that to depressurize the aircraft and kill the pax. They can cut engines, hell, they can just nose down and kill everyone

Your idea is all about fixing a one in a billion fluke and just makes it harder/more expensive/LESS safe for literally everyone else. Now we have to worry about transponder fires and hope the suppression system takes care of it. Now we have to land just to reset a malfunctioning transponder (while putting everyone at danger because ATC doesn't quite know where you are with it not working.) Now certain ATCs have to have a million dots in a very high traffic area because aircraft can't turn their transponders off (this is frequently requested of pilots in high traffic areas.)

And really, for what? Besides making the billions of other passengers less safe, would this have really saved anyone on MH370? Maybe in the very small chance the pax were alive but aren't now. Your idea will never happen because it's not needed and is only a huge hindrance

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: tim73
Posted 2014-03-23 06:47:37 and read 41445 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 113):
Don't mean to be rude, but you don't seem to know much about air operations. Just 2 flights ago I had to shut off the transponder and turn it back on again because it wasn't working. That wasn't the first nor will it be the last time that has happened.

What I am saying, is better system integration. ACARS kept on sending pings despite transponder turned off. So you cannot so easily shutdown all communications. Maybe ACARS cannot be shutdown even in case of fire?
You could add maybe location info to those pings if transponder turned off or malfunctioning.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: PipoA380
Posted 2014-03-23 06:53:40 and read 41277 times.

Here's a quick question:
-The place where debris were supposedly seen is 6000km away from the loss of contact point. At that point, it had already flow about 700km, so roughly 6700km were flown. Considering the Kuala-Beijing is about 4400km away, could it be that the plane's engines simply flamed out?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: spyglass
Posted 2014-03-23 06:53:54 and read 41273 times.

OK, I have a ? 4 anyone here holding an ATR and flying anything from 737/319 size and up, or anyone holding an A&P specializing in acft systems. I believe the normal cabin altitude desirable is about 6-8k ft (1850-2450m), depending on departing and arriving cities. Is it possible to ever-so-gradually increase that level in the cabin (thru slow depressurization) manually where the masks wouldn't drop and pax already sleeping or drowsy (due to the hour) wouldn't be soon aware of it? If that's possible, could the masks for the cockpit be kept operable?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-23 06:54:32 and read 41149 times.

Quoting tim73 (Reply 106):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 101):
One flight in a billion may be lost because it could not be tracked, but many many more would crash due to electrical fires if stuff could not be turned off.

Then it should be connected to automatic fire alarm system and sends a code indicating fire before shutdown. The pilot should not be able to turn it off without somekind message sent before by the system.

You're adding logic which prevents the pilots from instantly shutting a system down. Again, this means more risk for every single flight in order to speed up an investigation where everybody already died by a few weeks.

Quoting atnight (Reply 108):

I have a question, is Boeing doing anything to assist locating the airplane? I have not heard anything or seen any news report concerning Boeing and whether its assisting in any way.

Apart from providing systems expertise, how could they assist? Boeing does not own SAR resources.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-23 06:54:48 and read 41137 times.

Quoting tim73 (Reply 114):
ACARS kept on sending pings despite transponder turned off. So you cannot so easily shutdown all communications. Maybe ACARS cannot be shutdown even in case of fire?

ACARS sent nothing. It was disabled (note - neutral word). SATCOM was performing 'handshakes'.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-23 06:56:42 and read 41148 times.

Quoting spyglass (Reply 116):

Discussed multiple times on previous threads. Yes.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: tim73
Posted 2014-03-23 06:57:38 and read 41084 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 118):
ACARS sent nothing. It was disabled (note - neutral word). SATCOM was performing 'handshakes'.

So you already got a communication channel there. Could it be shutdown by pilot without ripping of the modem? What happens in case of fire?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-23 06:59:45 and read 41092 times.

Quoting tim73 (Reply 120):

It would be really helpful and reduce uninformed clutter if you read some of the earlier threads. Look for the latest (excellent) summary posted by rcair1 - Post 9 in this thread MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 42 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 21 2014 in Civil Aviation).

[Edited 2014-03-23 07:00:18]

[Edited 2014-03-23 07:22:39]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: cat3appr50
Posted 2014-03-23 07:19:40 and read 40253 times.

Quoting Mandala499
"Allow me to be picky... biggrin
This is a better version: http://bit.ly/1ir4SqS"

Is this the current reported understanding of MH370 flight path from primary radar data?

I thought IGARI-VAMPI-GEVAL-IGREX was the reported path via primary radar data? Guess maybe I'm not up to speed with revisions.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: frmrCapCadet
Posted 2014-03-23 07:25:55 and read 39835 times.

Information sent to a satellite at a more frequent interval, say every 5 minutes, would in itself provide decent tracking information.

The data could serially cover whatever systems and information interested parties wanted. (airlines, A or B, engine makers and government)

Data could be stored on the satellite, and only forwarded as needed, otherwise discarded after a certain time. This would cut data costs in half.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-23 07:30:49 and read 39734 times.

Quoting jox (Reply 111):
By analyzing all our databases and logs we have managed to recover about 2 signals per minute for the last 10 minutes.

...

Between 17:19 and 17:20 the aircraft was changing heading from 25 to 40 degrees, which is probably completely according to flight plan as MH370 on both 4 March and 8 March did the same at the same position. Last 2 signals are both showing that the aircraft is heading in direction 40 degrees.

Would the raw feedster have higher interval resolution than this? (if he's using the standard FR24 receiver, then forget I asked)...
I'm interested in the data between 17:20 when all was shown as normal, and 17:21 when it showed position but no altitude, prior to disappearing. The accurate timestamps on this minute, can paint a better picture for all of us...

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 112):
Do you know whether radar altitudes have been published for the whole track recorded by the military radar shown of the slide entitled "Military radar from Pulau Perak to last plot at 02:22H"?

NO, The only thing I know was FL295 at 200NM away... but if we allow the shadowing theory to mess with our heads, EK343 was at FL340 at around VAMPY within a few minutes of MH370... so, nothing rules out the aircraft climbing... or whether the military hasn't got a clue on its altitude...   

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 112):
close to Penang, it is not clear what the plane was doing
- 36nm from the radar, returns are strong and consistent. The plane must be flying at 1,000ft or higher
- 67nm out. returns weaken and disappear 97nm out. Therefore the plane must be flying around 5,000ft at that point.
- 167nm out, the aircraft reappears because it is climbing through 18,000ft
- 220nm, radar contact is lost as would be expected with the aircraft around 32,000ft

Nice! Needed these numbers...

Quoting spyglass (Reply 116):
s it possible to ever-so-gradually increase that level in the cabin (thru slow depressurization) manually where the masks wouldn't drop and pax already sleeping or drowsy (due to the hour) wouldn't be soon aware of it? If that's possible, could the masks for the cockpit be kept operable?

Mask automatically drop down as soon as cabin altitude reaches 14,000ft.

Quoting tim73 (Reply 120):
So you already got a communication channel there. Could it be shutdown by pilot without ripping of the modem? What happens in case of fire?

The satcom can be shut down, but not in an easy manner from the cockpit as it is not a critical system and none of the boxes are not located within the Avionics Bay. If it catches fire, it would be treated as a cabin fire. To reduce fire risk from the satcom, disabling the data flow requiring the satcom (in this case, the ACARS, and in other cases, onboard WiFi services), is deemed adequate. There are CBs covering the antenna, signal amplifier (HPA), and the SDU... depends on the customer preference if they want it in a single CB, or separate, or whatever... The whole system apart from the HPA consumes very little power and generates very little heat. It is not a mission critical system too so therefore it does not need to have the ability to be able to be power recycled on demand. The power consumption (and the power risk) depends on if you have anything to pass through the data pipeline to the satellite.

Quoting cat3appr50 (Reply 122):
Is this the current reported understanding of MH370 flight path from primary radar data?

As per Friday, yes...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: ExpatExp
Posted 2014-03-23 07:32:28 and read 39502 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 99):
Real time data is well within the achievable, but it is not without cost. Is it worth adding US$0.50 to every single ticket in order to solve the one crash in over thirty years that so far has no physical evidence a month or two faster?

As with many safety issues, some cost is likely worth it. I wonder how much time, money and human suffering could be avoided for that one incident every thirty years. Perhaps US$0.50 per flight would be a bargain?

As the cost of data transmission in these situations gets less and less expensive, I'd imagine that we will start to see data-intensive tracking systems used more frequently.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Skydrol
Posted 2014-03-23 07:42:02 and read 39143 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 101):
Electrical arcing and fires in flight are bad Feng Shui.

Any modern piece of electronics will have its own internal fuses or fusible resistors which will prevent the device from going up in flames long before the supply breaker would trip. Even a cheap, no-name 20 dollar DVD player from Walmart comes with internal protection in case the switching power supply shorts. An internal fuse or safety resistor will open long before the 15A mains supply breaker will trip, or a fire would start. The device just turns off, without being able to be powered again. Do you really believe avionics equipment wouldn't employ similar or even better protection to be certified for the application?

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 101):
Whether MH370 has been hijacked, diverted to an airfield in Pakistan or crashed into the ocean due to a malfunction, a transponder without an off switch would almost certainly not have made any difference to the lives of the passengers and crew.

But it likely would have made a huge difference for family members of passengers and crew, and saved millions of dollars and wasted time and effort on the part of search parties from all over the world. You conveniently keep ignoring this when insisting how essential it is for equipment to be easily disabled.




LD4

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: avlnative
Posted 2014-03-23 07:47:23 and read 39514 times.

Whilst reading this article

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-phone-bypass-security-checks.html

I came across the reader comment

"This aircraft was fitted with Uninterruptible Autopilot System. It has been fitted to every Boeing plane since 2009 to ensure another 9/11 cannot happen."

That was news to me at least I don't recall reading that fact in these 43 threads.   But is it factual? I seem to recall that this 777 was build in 2002. It is all beginning to run together...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-23 07:49:22 and read 39171 times.

Quoting Skydrol (Reply 126):
But it likely would have made a huge difference for family members of passengers and crew, and saved millions of dollars and wasted time and effort on the part of search parties from all over the world.

Only if the aircraft stayed within SSR coverage - which it didn't.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: tim73
Posted 2014-03-23 07:55:34 and read 38919 times.

Transponder requires 200 watts but your typical Inmarsat handset only about 6 watts. So that could be the way to create alternative path for location info.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: dc9northwest
Posted 2014-03-23 08:00:54 and read 38719 times.

Quoting avlnative (Reply 127):
But is it factual?

It's the Daily Mail. Draw your own conclusions.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-23 08:00:58 and read 38675 times.

Quoting frmrCapCadet (Reply 123):
Data could be stored on the satellite, and only forwarded as needed, otherwise discarded after a certain time. This would cut data costs in half.

That is not the way satcoms work.
User comm data is never stored on the satellite. The up/down link between satellite and earth station is cheap because it is a wide band link usually in Ku-band with high gain directional antennas at both ends, especially at the earth station end.

The problem is the availability of L-band frequency spectrum on the other side, between the aircraft and the satellite. L-band is extremely crowded and therefore any piece of spectrum is expensive.

What operators have therefore done is move to more directional spot beams (e.g. Inmarsat 4) in order to reuse the same spectrum in non-adjacent beams to avoid interference. To make the spot beams as narrow as possible to promote frequency re-use, a large mesh antennas (10m +) is deployed once the satellite is in orbit.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-23 08:04:48 and read 38708 times.

This is getting weirder and weirder, now authorities said no route change prior to last transmission

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-23 08:05:53 and read 38606 times.

Quoting Skydrol (Reply 126):
Any modern piece of electronics will have its own internal fuses or fusible resistors which will prevent the device from going up in flames long before the supply breaker would trip.

As has been said many times, fire is not the only reason for switching off a transponder, e.g. high traffic density, malfunction other than arcing.

Quoting avlnative (Reply 127):
"This aircraft was fitted with Uninterruptible Autopilot System. It has been fitted to every Boeing plane since 2009 to ensure another 9/11 cannot happen."

That was news to me at least I don't recall reading that fact in these 43 threads.   But is it factual?

I think someone in the chain has grossly misunderstood the function and purpose of FBW while confusing it with the autopilot.

Edit: typo

[Edited 2014-03-23 08:14:09]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Pihero
Posted 2014-03-23 08:12:39 and read 38376 times.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 107):
FR24's track ends with a turn to the right, actually. In the last data the heading is 25, then 28, then 40 degrees. BITOD is a right turn from IGARI for MH370.

OUPS !
My bad. Of course you're right ( no pun    ).
Please folks, replace the direction of the turn to *right*. The rest of the sentence is unchanged.
Bravo for picking it up, LTCK8K6 !
Hence, the post should read as :
..."]the last known position - from FlightRadar (!!!) was a turn to the RIGHT, consistent to a direct track to IGARI ( confirmed by the Mickey Mouse Chinese COM translation), and starting a turn to fintercept the course to BITOD and subsequent route points"
I was concentrating on the fact that one of my earliest theories involved a loss of transponder at a position, very close to IGARI at which Flight 370 would commence the turn to rally the M765 airway to BITOD ( with a track of 058° ). That theory still stands, unfortunately...

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 110):
Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 107):
FR24's track ends with a turn to the right, actually. In the last data the heading is 25, then 28, then 40 degrees. BITOD is a right turn from IGARI for MH370.

Hurray! At least someone noticed the 040 track prior to the turnaround!
Quoting jox (Reply 111):

FR24 themselves noticed this. They posted the text below on their Facebook page on March 9.

As Mandala499 wrote : Hoorah ! At last people are retrieving some evidence lost in the conspiracy / mass murder... madness.
I think it's about time.
For those who distrust FlightRadar, take a look at the A350 prototypes threads. The guys there have managed - everyday - to reconstruct the flights' trajectories, well enough to identify some test manoeuvres ( the flutter tests in particular).
I'd say, in this instance I'd believe FR over any official retrieved radar blip.

Quoting jox (Reply 111):
The last location tracked by Flightradar24 is
Time UTC: 17:21:03
Lat: 6.97
Lon: 103.63
Alt: 35000
Speed: 471 knots
Heading: 40

This last position is important, if one takes into account FR's position coding as degrees / hundredths of degree as opposed as our way of coding as Degrees / Minutes and tenths of minutes.
.
Now compare IGARI as seen by FR : 6° 97 North / 103°63 East, against 6° 56',2 North 103° 35',2 . The conversion of our miutes into hundredths is easy : multiply them by 100/60 :
The result of the conversion comes as
Lat : 6.94
Lon : 103.59
...which means that the aircraft is passing (has passed, by 2 miles) IGARI and still turning to establish itself on track to BITOD.

That last FR position shows that at that moment, the aircraft was still within a normal en-route situation.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: PanAmPaul
Posted 2014-03-23 08:18:09 and read 38142 times.

I don't see this covered yet but the Australian PM announced "credible leads" in the search, although they are still small leads and may not lead to anything (no pun intended).

Quote:
As the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner continued in the southern Indian Ocean Sunday, new leads emerged.

At a news conference Sunday, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott told reporters that the authorities leading the search had a number of credible leads that showed promise.

“It is still too early to be definite, but obviously we have now had a number of very credible leads and there is increasing hope –no more than hope – that we might be on the road to discovering what happened to this ill-fated aircraft,” said Abbott.....

from
Search for MH370 Brings ‘Credible Leads’ Says Australian PM-Last Acars Tranmission Showed Normal Route to Beijing

.

[Edited 2014-03-23 08:23:45]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-23 08:28:25 and read 37747 times.

Quoting ExpatExp (Reply 125):
Perhaps US$0.50 per flight would be a bargain?

Wow! What system is that? Sign me up tomorrow for that one! Try multiply that by 100 perhaps 1000 for 1 flight hour, depending on what you really want to put in it.

No, seriously... ACARS on a real high usage package is about $0.50 per message, if you're a stingy user on a stingy allowance program, it's $5 per message on a good day. This excludes satcom volume costs.

On safety related services, you're stuck with Iridium and Inmarsat-3 at the moment... Inmarsat-4 for safety services is coming, but it's at $4-5 a megabyte at the moment... and isn't set to go down, so forget the fiction of:

Quoting ExpatExp (Reply 125):
As the cost of data transmission in these situations gets less and less expensive, I'd imagine that we will start to see data-intensive tracking systems used more frequently.

for the moment...

Quoting Skydrol (Reply 126):
An internal fuse or safety resistor will open long before the 15A mains supply breaker will trip, or a fire would start. The device just turns off, without being able to be powered again.

For some stuff, this is good. For something like the transponder, you'd want it to go up again after you reset it because you're going to need it... for the SatCom, it's OK... (unless you're in the middle of north atlantic)...

Quoting frmrCapCadet (Reply 123):
Information sent to a satellite at a more frequent interval, say every 5 minutes, would in itself provide decent tracking information.

The standard on Iridium based Automated Flight Following is a 2 minute interval, and it's the default setting.

Quoting frmrCapCadet (Reply 123):
Data could be stored on the satellite, and only forwarded as needed, otherwise discarded after a certain time. This would cut data costs in half.

I wish...   

Quoting tim73 (Reply 129):
Transponder requires 200 watts but your typical Inmarsat handset only about 6 watts. So that could be the way to create alternative path for location info.

Except for the HPA on the Inmarsat aero system, it's up to 250W on 28VDC.

Quoting avlnative (Reply 127):
"This aircraft was fitted with Uninterruptible Autopilot System. It has been fitted to every Boeing plane since 2009 to ensure another 9/11 cannot happen."

Press "A/P D/C" and the Autopilot goes dead. That simple.

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 131):
The problem is the availability of L-band frequency spectrum on the other side, between the aircraft and the satellite. L-band is extremely crowded and therefore any piece of spectrum is expensive.

Hurray! Someone who knows satcom...   L-band now has Inmarsat 3 & 4, plus Iridium, Globalstar, and Thuraya (which works in almost the same frequencies as Inmarsat)...

Quoting Pihero (Reply 134):
Please folks, replace the direction of the turn to *right*. The rest of the sentence is unchanged.
Bravo for picking it up, LTCK8K6 !

We have those days !    We're only human!

Quoting Pihero (Reply 134):
I'd say, in this instance I'd believe FR over any official retrieved radar blip.

I've used the same ADS-B raw data feed for use in accident investigations recently as preliminary data as the radar and FDR data gets processed. The FR data's disadvantage is the low update rate compared with what's actually available... but then... beggars can be choosers. We need that FR24 ADS-B feeder at Kota Bharu to come forward and provide the ADS-B raw data so we can have something to work on! :p

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-23 08:32:13 and read 37333 times.

Quoting PanAmPaul (Reply 135):
I don't see this covered yet but the Australian PM announced "credible leads" in the search, although they are still small leads and may not lead to anything (no pun intended).

I think the PM is referring to the three sets of satellite images (commercial US DigiGlobe, Chinese, and French). I would presume that the plane debris should generate a debris field, not just single pieces of debris, so it might be that the plane debris is not yet spotted but let's hope for the best.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: art
Posted 2014-03-23 08:39:41 and read 36938 times.

There seems to be a big delay between satellite images being taken and the identification of anomalies that might indicate debris. For satellite images that can be released into the public domain, why do they not stick them on the net and invite the public to review them and flag the image as of interest / not of interest?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Pihero
Posted 2014-03-23 08:40:52 and read 37019 times.

Quoting SouthernBelle (Reply 43):

Have you not seen the newest radar data? I think it's very interesting.
Quoting GZed (Reply 51):
Check this out. I have added a few extra points beyond what we know :
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 71):
6. So-called radar track has been "determined with great confidence to be that of MH370". (MH370 press conference 15 Mar by Prime Minister).
7. Aircraft seen on radar tracking out of Penang at a track consistent with VPG (Penang VOR) to VAMPI, in a reasonably straight but low meandering track. General direct track is about 285º to 290º (should be 288º). (Chinese Press conference, 21Mar)

The reason I have little faith with *official* radar-obtained positions is the posts above totally contradict the Thai nAir Force claim that " Flight 370 never crossed Thailand territory" , which means that as a matter of fact you have to redraw your flight paths to allow for that statement.
The closest route, allowing for the fact that it is under Malaysian ATC would be a VKB-VPG ( Khota Bharu - Peanang) on airway B219... and nobody saw Flight 370...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: evomutant
Posted 2014-03-23 08:44:43 and read 36662 times.

Quoting art (Reply 138):
There seems to be a big delay between satellite images being taken and the identification of anomalies that might indicate debris. For satellite images that can be released into the public domain, why do they not stick them on the net and invite the public to review them and flag the image as of interest / not of interest?

Because they would have every wave, shadow and cloud tagged by people who don;t know what they are doing.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-23 08:46:13 and read 36613 times.

Quoting ExpatExp (Reply 125):
As with many safety issues, some cost is likely worth it. I wonder how much time, money and human suffering could be avoided for that one incident every thirty years. Perhaps US$0.50 per flight would be a bargain?

Note that I said per ticket, not per flight. In an industry where margins per passenger are in many cases measured in individual US$, ½ a dollar is significant money.

Quoting Skydrol (Reply 126):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 101):
Electrical arcing and fires in flight are bad Feng Shui.

Any modern piece of electronics will have its own internal fuses or fusible resistors which will prevent the device from going up in flames long before the supply breaker would trip. Even a cheap, no-name 20 dollar DVD player from Walmart comes with internal protection in case the switching power supply shorts. An internal fuse or safety resistor will open long before the 15A mains supply breaker will trip, or a fire would start. The device just turns off, without being able to be powered again. Do you really believe avionics equipment wouldn't employ similar or even better protection to be certified for the application?

I believe avionics equipment should have a circuit breaker that can be pulled by the pilot. So does any pilot, aircraft designer, regulator and aircraft operator. A century of operations have shown this concept to be a good idea.

Fire on the ground can typically be escaped by leaving the premises. Fire in an aircraft is another matter entirely.

Quoting Skydrol (Reply 126):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 101):
Whether MH370 has been hijacked, diverted to an airfield in Pakistan or crashed into the ocean due to a malfunction, a transponder without an off switch would almost certainly not have made any difference to the lives of the passengers and crew.

But it likely would have made a huge difference for family members of passengers and crew, and saved millions of dollars and wasted time and effort on the part of search parties from all over the world. You conveniently keep ignoring this when insisting how essential it is for equipment to be easily disabled.

I'm saying that I'm against adding risk to every single flight and every single passenger's journey in order to maybe possibly reduce the risk of death and injury in an outlier type even that might happen once in a billion flights.

There are always compromises in systems design. Some of them entail a few people potentially suffering because every other person is at reduced risk.

Even if the MH370 search effort ends up costing three times as much as the AF447 search effort, that is still less than the cost of a new 777. Certainly less than the cost of real time tracking for every black box.

I'll add that real time tracking already exists with ADS-B. In any case if you pull the breaker it is all moot.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Pihero
Posted 2014-03-23 08:51:06 and read 36526 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 136):
ACARS on a real high usage package is about $0.50 per message,

I know for a fact that a VHF-transmitted weather message costs a big user 2€... and more for a sat-transmitted one. Just one of the things captains should know.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 136):
The FR data's disadvantage is the low update rate compared with what's actually available... but then... beggars can be choosers.

  
Never could catch the V1 speeds on what we knew as accelerate/stop tests.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Gonzalo
Posted 2014-03-23 08:51:17 and read 36486 times.

I have a question ( from my very ignorant position on the matter ). Search area west of Australian coast is concentrating a big effort to find some floating debris, without any positive result for several days. Considering the depth of the water in that area ( about 5.000 meters AFAIK ) wouldn't make sense to send a couple of submarines ( long range, military / nuclear submarines ) to "listen" in the area, trying to "hear" the pings of the black boxes ? I mean, the recorders are the main goal of any recovery effort, and while a floating galley or seat could confirm the fate of the aircraft, the recorders are the pieces that could, * maybe *, help us in the explanation of what happened....

Thanks in advance.

Rgds.
G.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: art
Posted 2014-03-23 08:52:25 and read 36306 times.

Quoting evomutant (Reply 140):
Quoting art (Reply 138):There seems to be a big delay between satellite images being taken and the identification of anomalies that might indicate debris. For satellite images that can be released into the public domain, why do they not stick them on the net and invite the public to review them and flag the image as of interest / not of interest?
Because they would have every wave, shadow and cloud tagged by people who don;t know what they are doing.

Other way round IMO - the images flagged as not of interest would go to the back of the queue for analysis.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Pihero
Posted 2014-03-23 08:55:05 and read 36515 times.

Quoting art (Reply 138):
. For satellite images that can be released into the public domain, why do they not stick them on the net and invite the public to review them and flag the image as of interest / not of interest?

A friend of mine is a recce / sat image interpreter. It's a very specialised job we certainly won't trust Joe Six-Pack to do.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: BackSeater
Posted 2014-03-23 08:57:43 and read 36223 times.

Since the early threads I have stumbled on many references to FLxxx, for instance::
- FL450 ( and therefore "hey aircraft over its service level)!
- FL295

I cannot believe the military radar plots would be expressed that way for two good reasons:
- they would need to maintain a current data base of the pressure altitude distribution around their site within 300nm and up to 50,000ft(?)
- they certainly would not care about pressure altitude is they plan to shoot something at the target

So I assume until corrected that when we read a military radar altitude like 295R on the Butterworth radar plot, it means 29,500 feet above the WGS-84 geoid model that weapons systems typically use.

And don't expect the difference to be small. On some flights recorded with GPS, I have witnessed differences sometimes up to +/- 2,000ft.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-23 09:03:02 and read 36067 times.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 142):
I know for a fact that a VHF-transmitted weather message costs a big user 2€... and more for a sat-transmitted one. Just one of the things captains should know.

Is that for a simple METAR or a multiple entry weather message? ACARS 'chained messages' are hideously expensive I hear...  
I have the AeroH+ price for the satcom portion somewhere.

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 143):
Considering the depth of the water in that area ( about 5.000 meters AFAIK ) wouldn't make sense to send a couple of submarines ( long range, military / nuclear submarines ) to "listen" in the area, trying to "hear" the pings of the black boxes ?

If I remember correctly, the pingers are on the Medium Frequency Sonar, and not on the low frequency. Towed Array sonars in the military subs are generally low frequency (used to detect at longer distances) but data is slower to acquire to become a target track. Once you go to the Bow Sonar or Conformal Array sonars, you simply have to be VERY SLOW to find it... and bear in mind you have a blind spot... so each area you have to slow down... listen, then go on for a few minutes at speed, then slow down, if you have a bearing to a contact... or you turn and listen to your blindspot... and repeat a few times, before you go on to the next area... And also you have to be at the right depth layer too... an inversion could simply hide the damn thing even if it's right next to you in a different depth layer of temperature and salinity. It could be cheaper to simply put an MF towed array from a boat (I think the Perrys have these in Royal Australian Navy), and just go slow enough so the array can be below the depth layer... this one could be cheaper and may even be faster to use to search for it.
BUT, remember, the pinger isn't very loud... it's used for terminal area search and pinpointing... you need to be in the general area first before you look for the pinger. That's why the wreckage debris is more important at the moment...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-23 09:06:06 and read 35737 times.

Quoting art (Reply 138):
For satellite images that can be released into the public domain, why do they not stick them on the net and invite the public to review them and flag the image as of interest / not of interest?

For the same reason we don't have untrained people triaging CAT scans or MRTs.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 145):
A friend of mine is a recce / sat image interpreter. It's a very specialised job we certainly won't trust Joe Six-Pack to do.

  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: cougar15
Posted 2014-03-23 09:08:02 and read 35761 times.

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 143):
I have a question ( from my very ignorant position on the matter ). Search area west of Australian coast is concentrating a big effort to find some floating debris, without any positive result for several days. Considering the depth of the water in that area ( about 5.000 meters AFAIK ) wouldn't make sense to send a couple of submarines

Germany anounced today that they will be sending a couple of navy frigates to support the search efforts. These are equiped with very hightech Mini Subs (source T-Online.de) to scan the ocean floor! Guess it will be a while before they reach the WA coast though!

[Edited 2014-03-23 09:10:18]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Gonzalo
Posted 2014-03-23 09:16:53 and read 35586 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 147):
That's why the wreckage debris is more important at the moment...

Thank you Mandala !!!

Quoting cougar15 (Reply 149):
Guess it will be a while before they reach the WA coast though!

A long trip indeed !! Although the modern Frigates can be very fast compared to other ships....

There is sea fog in the área of search, another day without results....    http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/mis...arching-ends-without-result-n59836

Rgds.
G.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Burkhard
Posted 2014-03-23 09:19:27 and read 35400 times.

Quoting cougar15 (Reply 149):
Germany anounced today that they will be sending a couple of navy frigates to support the search efforts.

They will need two weeks to arrive at location I'm afraid, but to me it indicates that there is far more Information available now than public...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: akberc
Posted 2014-03-23 09:20:56 and read 35693 times.

Quote:
“The ping timings got longer,” Inmarsat spokesman Chris McLaughlin stated via email.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_te...issing_airliner_s_flight_path.html


Was there a ping at 2:11, or should there have been one? If pings happen after no message for one hour, when did the first hour start? The categorical statement above, if true, would imply a very narrow path and turn around Aceh, and that any westward component of the heading would only be possible south of the equator.

In other words, the 3:11, 4:11 and 5:11 round-trips would have to be very close together, and only the last two significantly slower, as the tangent line breaks away from the circle with the satellite at its center.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: alfons
Posted 2014-03-23 09:22:03 and read 35583 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 110):
They lower prices if they're not selling well. If they're selling well, they'll increase the price of the bandwidth.

you're right if there would be no competition (monopol). And maybe there's no. But if there is, the providers will take the opportunity to increase customer volume, and in a competitive environment, the price will play a role. But I don't know this market obviously. So if there is a lack of alternatives, the price might go up. And that won't play a role once a global policy maker, will bring out a global policy... .

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: ExpatExp
Posted 2014-03-23 09:22:54 and read 35713 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 136):
Wow! What system is that? Sign me up tomorrow for that one! Try multiply that by 100 perhaps 1000 for 1 flight hour, depending on what you really want to put in it.

No, seriously... ACARS on a real high usage package is about $0.50 per message, if you're a stingy user on a stingy allowance program, it's $5 per message on a good day. This excludes satcom volume costs.
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 141):
Note that I said per ticket, not per flight. In an industry where margins per passenger are in many cases measured in individual US$, ½ a dollar is significant money.

Yes, exactly -- there is likely a cost that a majority of people would consider "worth it", and it would be heavily dependent on the influences mentioned above. What that cost is, I don't know…

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: 320tech
Posted 2014-03-23 10:25:43 and read 33674 times.

Quoting art (Reply 138):
For satellite images that can be released into the public domain, why do they not stick them on the net and invite the public to review them and flag the image as of interest / not of interest?

In fact this is being done.
http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/mh370_indian_ocean

The site doesn't load for me, but maybe it works for others. There is some value in this, as it's useful to know areas that are tagged as not containing anything of interest. It doesn't take special training to see that there's no debris in a certain grid.

This was also done for the Steve Fossett search, although nothing was found, as far as I know.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: AeroVega
Posted 2014-03-23 11:10:51 and read 32167 times.

It appears that whoever was flying the plane did his best not to be detected or found. I'm afraid he may have deliberately flown to one of the deepest points of the Indian ocean (such as the Diamantina Deep, 1125 km west-southwest of Perth according to Wikipedia).

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-23 11:37:36 and read 31290 times.

Quoting AeroVega (Reply 156):
It appears that whoever was flying the plane did his best not to be detected or found. I'm afraid he may have deliberately flown to one of the deepest points of the Indian ocean

Take a look at a globe of the earth. If you postulate an aircraft with no human controlling, place it (e.g.) in the Malacca Strait, and allow it to fly off in a random direction, the best odds are that it will head for the remoter parts of the Indian Ocean.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-23 11:53:20 and read 30618 times.

how about debris drifted to Antarctica with all those furious and screaming winds, is anyone patrolling the shores of that continent???

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-23 12:05:43 and read 30295 times.

Quoting capri (Reply 158):
how about debris drifted to Antarctica with all those furious and screaming winds, is anyone patrolling the shores of that continent???

I think the various navies involved might know a thing or two about how the sea works. They'll look where the evidence points them.  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: flyingturtle
Posted 2014-03-23 12:35:30 and read 29390 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 159):
I think the various navies involved might know a thing or two about how the sea works. They'll look where the evidence points them.
http://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/map/wind/oceania#map_container for example...  

For floating debris, the wind might be more important than oceanic currents. This weather data is essentially something like a "vector field" in mathematics. Given the place where they found floating debris, they can calculate back into the past and tell where the plane crashed with a given probability.

In Alpine rescue, there are statistical models that work off topographic databases. They model where lost people, devoid of any navigation equipment (GPS, maps, compass) are most likely to go.


David

[Edited 2014-03-23 12:37:19]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: abba
Posted 2014-03-23 12:47:47 and read 28847 times.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 16):
It might be important - but it could be important for exactly the opposite reason you think it is. (Do you not see the flipside of the authorities *not* saying they've checked all passengers and crew, and cleared them all?) Much of this type of speculation is like that - it works equally well both ways, and it's down to your own personal biases how you see it.

I don't think it works both ways. Have the authorities found that there were terrorists on board I highly doubt that it would not have leaked somehow.

Quoting iberiadc852 (Reply 28):
In the same way, let alone I don't think all terrorists in this world are already known by authorities, even if they knew the ones in the aircraft but suspected this was only a step in the plot, they better should keep it in secret too.

Then you are into very highly elaborated theories that I do not believe. The 777 is not hidden somewhere ready to be send to New York as a primitive bomb.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 71):
If you want to look at the captain, why not look into the FO. I think the media prefers to go after the captain just because he has a simulator. The FO is a different story altogether. Apart from the cockpit visitors a while back, not many is known publicly. Talk with some in MH and a potentially dark story comes out. But, given his family's background, it's likely that it's being kept quiet at the moment. We'll see how it goes.

The things that has been told about the FO is to my knowledge - even if they are pretty naughty - of the kind that does not explain a suicidal behavior that would involve the death of a full 777-200 load of pax. The FO seems to be a person who lived the sweet life. He seems not to be one who were on the edge of killing himself and a lot of other people. Doing that takes either a high amount of some kind of fanaticism or anger combined with depression.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-23 13:00:07 and read 28762 times.

CNN reports that the Malaysian officials have said in a written statement that the turn was not pre-programmed.

Whoever turned the plane didn't pre-program the turn into the FMS. This theory can now be laid into the rest.

Source: http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/23/wo...malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html

Quote:
No evidence turn was preprogrammed, Malaysia says

Malaysian officials, in a written update Sunday on the search, cast doubt on the theory that someone, perhaps a pilot, preprogrammed the aircraft to make an unexpected left turn during the flight.

"The last ACARS transmission, sent at 1:07 a.m., showed nothing unusual. The 1:07 a.m. transmission showed a normal routing all the way to Beijing," it read.

The Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System measures thousands of data points and sends the information via satellite to the airline, the engine manufacturer and other authorized parties, according to CNN aviation and airline correspondent Richard Quest.

Had the plane been preprogrammed to change course, the ACARS system should have reported it during its last communication at 1:07. The ACARS is supposed to report new information every 30 minutes, but it was silent at 1:37.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-23 13:01:27 and read 28391 times.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 160):
For floating debris, the wind might be more important than oceanic currents.

Well, yes, but I'd include that in "how the sea works" - i.e. I don't think the various navies are likely to forget to take wind and currents into account.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 160):
In Alpine rescue, there are statistical models that work off topographic databases. They model where lost people, devoid of any navigation equipment (GPS, maps, compass) are most likely to go.

Just head for the retaurant on the Schilthorn and wait for James Bond.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: AeroVega
Posted 2014-03-23 13:04:08 and read 28282 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 157):
Quoting AeroVega (Reply 156):
It appears that whoever was flying the plane did his best not to be detected or found. I'm afraid he may have deliberately flown to one of the deepest points of the Indian ocean

Take a look at a globe of the earth. If you postulate an aircraft with no human controlling, place it (e.g.) in the Malacca Strait, and allow it to fly off in a random direction, the best odds are that it will head for the remoter parts of the Indian Ocean.

I didn't say remote, I said deep. As in below the surface. Somewhere were a plane resting on the seabed would be very difficult to find.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Viscount724
Posted 2014-03-23 13:11:39 and read 28076 times.

Quoting atnight (Reply 108):
I have a question, is Boeing doing anything to assist locating the airplane? I have not heard anything or seen any news report concerning Boeing and whether its assisting in any way.

Yes they are. Boeing's website says they are assisting the NTSB on site.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-23 13:12:45 and read 28125 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 162):
CNN reports that the Malaysian officials have said in a written statement that the turn was not pre-programmed.

Wait a minute there... your quote says this:

Quote:
No evidence turn was preprogrammed, Malaysia says

That is different than what you said. Did the Malaysians actually say the turn was not pre-programmed or do they just not have evidence of it? If it's the latter, then the turn could have been pre-planned, they just don't have evidence of it

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-23 13:18:11 and read 27892 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 166):
That is different than what you said. Did the Malaysians actually say the turn was not pre-programmed or do they just not have evidence of it? If it's the latter, then the turn could have been pre-planned, they just don't have evidence of it

Yes, they said they have no evidence it was pre-programmed. Or more precisely, the 1:07 am ACARS transmission did not contain the turn deviating from the flight plan. It could have been pre-programmed after 1:07 am. If we believe in a pilot executing a pre-meditated plan, the turn certainly was pre-planned in his mind.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: fooflyboy
Posted 2014-03-23 13:26:38 and read 27689 times.

Quoting AeroVega (Reply 156):
It appears that whoever was flying the plane did his best not to be detected or found.

I fear he/she/they might have been successful.

The water search is getting all of the media attention, but am I correct in assuming that the northern arc is being actively searched as well?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-23 14:01:29 and read 26328 times.

All these satellite images and still nothing. I know the Indian Ocean is huge, but it's still frustrating.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: osloflyer
Posted 2014-03-23 14:11:57 and read 26077 times.

So many unanswered questions still,

In the video from the crews security screening, why are they walking together? seems odd to me, is the crew lounge outside security?
When was the crew assigned this trip? What about the flight attendants? Training records, etc etc.

Did they perhaps just miss the last digit of the frequency change, I want to hear the audio of the last sign off.

This is getting really frustrating.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: rc135x
Posted 2014-03-23 14:16:39 and read 25873 times.

Quoting fooflyboy (Reply 168):
am I correct in assuming that the northern arc is being actively searched as well?

This is a worthy inquiry.

Is there any official indication that the "northern arc" is still under examination, particularly for the crashed remains of the airplane as well as any indication that it might be on the ground following a controlled landing? With the focus on the southern Indian Ocean west of Perth is there a tacit acknowledgement that even if the current possibilities of debris do not pan out, that the evidence is strongest in support of the "southern arc"?

The dispatch of the German frigates with deep-water search equipment suggests (given their ~2 week transit time) an emphasis on trying to detect and locate the CVR/FDR before they cease transmitting. Again, one can infer that the expectation of finding the airplane is clearly along the "southern arc".

The Talking Heads who have espoused the "on the ground in Pakistan" and "landed at Isfahan," along with the "friends of friends" who have touted their "inside" sources at DHS and other alphabet soup agencies have been amazingly NORDO.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: capri
Posted 2014-03-23 14:17:03 and read 25907 times.

Quoting osloflyer (Reply 170):

Everyone is asking same questions you are, but unlike western countries, Malaysians officials have other ideas to keep hold of all these infos until investigation is over

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-23 14:26:04 and read 25624 times.

Quoting osloflyer (Reply 170):
When was the crew assigned this trip?

The captain was a last minute substitution.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-23 14:34:38 and read 25185 times.

Quoting capri (Reply 172):
Everyone is asking same questions you are, but unlike western countries, Malaysians officials have other ideas to keep hold of all these infos until investigation is over

It's not exactly a straight forward search and investigation.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: WingedMigrator
Posted 2014-03-23 15:00:19 and read 24439 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 162):
Whoever turned the plane didn't pre-program the turn into the FMS. This theory can now be laid into the rest.

It wasn't a theory. It used to be an "established fact". From rcair1's Sanity Check:

Quoting rcair1:
On 3/18 authorities reported that new way-points had been entered into the a/c FMS BEFORE the last communication at 1:19.

Which goes to show that we should be very wary of "established facts"

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: akberc
Posted 2014-03-23 15:03:57 and read 24307 times.

Quoting rc135x (Reply 171):
The Talking Heads who have espoused the "on the ground in Pakistan" and "landed at Isfahan," along with the "friends of friends" who have touted their "inside" sources at DHS and other alphabet soup agencies have been amazingly NORDO.

Sadly, they've done their job: reinforcing stereotypes that we struggle with every day. And the credibility of the 'ex-generals' will not be hurt -- they will be back again there is a news story in the Eastern Hemisphere that has to be spun.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-23 15:18:31 and read 24004 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 162):
CNN reports that the Malaysian officials have said in a written statement that the turn was not pre-programmed.

That's NOT what they said.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 162):
"The last ACARS transmission, sent at 1:07 a.m., showed nothing unusual. The 1:07 a.m. transmission showed a normal routing all the way to Beijing,"

NOT the same thing. A further 14 minutes elapsed AFTER the ACARS transmission before transponder data was lost at 1721UTC.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-23 15:22:20 and read 23751 times.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 177):
Quoting Finn350 (Reply 162):CNN reports that the Malaysian officials have said in a written statement that the turn was not pre-programmed.
That's NOT what they said.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 162):"The last ACARS transmission, sent at 1:07 a.m., showed nothing unusual. The 1:07 a.m. transmission showed a normal routing all the way to Beijing,"

This is all old news anyway, isn't it?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: captainx
Posted 2014-03-23 15:23:20 and read 24053 times.

CNN reports an altitude drop to 12kft right after the turn. If there was smoke in the cockpit they may have shut off much of the cockpit electronics including the transponder.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-23 15:27:17 and read 23676 times.

Quoting captainx (Reply 179):
CNN reports an altitude drop to 12kft right after the turn. If there was smoke in the cockpit they may have shut off much of the cockpit electronics including the transponder.

But no comms? Did the fire shut that down? Did the flight crew themselves shut it off (without making at least one call?) The fire incapacitated the crew but didn't destroy the aircraft for 7 hours? Why did the crew fly the way they did? (not trying to grill you, just asking these questions in general)

I'm not ruling fire out completely, but the events that would have to take place would have to be pretty wild

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Kaiarahi
Posted 2014-03-23 15:27:35 and read 23678 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 178):
This is all old news anyway, isn't it?

Yes and no. It's an added detail as to when the new waypoints may/may not have been input. But the distorted interpretation is new - and wrong.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-23 15:28:24 and read 23713 times.

Did they ever confirm that other pilot contacting 370 (mumbling and such)?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-23 15:31:15 and read 23623 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 162):
Source: http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/23/wo....html

I think this was not (at least on this forum) a sure thing, and the pre-programing issue has been in doubt for a while- except that the media was reporting it as an absolute. All we know is that the ACARS stopped transmitting between 1:07 and 1:37L.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: flyenthu
Posted 2014-03-23 15:39:25 and read 23601 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 180):
but the events that would have to take place would have to be pretty wild

This whole incident is nothing short of wild and bizarre.

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 182):
Did they ever confirm that other pilot contacting 370 (mumbling and such)?

NYT is reporting the "mumbling" sound as a fact. Check this interesting article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/23/wo...oth-routine-and-flight-vanish.html

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-23 15:40:23 and read 23282 times.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 175):
From rcair1's Sanity Check:

Quoting rcair1:
On 3/18 authorities reported that new way-points had been entered into the a/c FMS BEFORE the last communication at 1:19.

I don't want to labour the point but what was the source? I only saw "media reports" that someone had said that. I never actually heard it "from the horse's mouth", so to speak, but I may have missed it. I haven't seen anything to convince me that it was anything other than speculation from an outside source based on the announcement that they seemed to be following waypoints.

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 184):
NYT is reporting the "mumbling" sound as a fact. Check this interesting article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/23/wo...oth-routine-and-flight-vanish.html

I don't think it is. It only mentions calls by two other MH flights which got no reply. The story was denied very early in the investigation at a press conference.

[Edited 2014-03-23 15:56:00]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-23 15:52:46 and read 22870 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 185):
"from the horse's mouth", so to speak

One of the most difficult aspects of trying to follow this whole bizarre incident is trying to identify "the horse." As near as I can tell so far there actually is not one.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-23 16:02:20 and read 22421 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 186):
One of the most difficult aspects of trying to follow this whole bizarre incident is trying to identify "the horse." As near as I can tell so far there actually is not one.

I think we've already established that you and I have been interpreting things differently.  Smile

I'm talking about the investigators at the press conferences rather than reports from "sources" in the NYT, WSJ and CNN, etc.

Edit: Whoops, it's important not to forget the smileys!

[Edited 2014-03-23 16:05:21]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-23 16:12:06 and read 21909 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 187):
One of the most difficult aspects of trying to follow this whole bizarre incident is trying to identify "the horse." As near as I can tell so far there actually is not one.
I think we've already established that you and I have been interpreting things differently.

I'm talking about the investigators at the press conferences rather than reports from "sources" in the NYT, WSJ and CNN, etc.

So am I. 

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: wjcandee
Posted 2014-03-23 16:12:25 and read 22079 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 180):
Did the flight crew themselves shut it off (without making at least one call?)

Not impossible. What's being said in the cockpit and out of it are amazingly-dissimilar.

AF447 -- no Mayday.

ValuJet -- What's the reason for return? Captain (in cockpit to FO): "Fire!" FO (to ATC): "Smoke in the cockpit, smoke in the cabin" -- I have always blamed him for creating unnecessary drama and confusion later by not using the words told to him by the captain, substituting his own judgment. It WAS fire, and the investigation would have gone faster and better had he said what he should have said. There was fire coming through the floor of the cabin at that time.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-23 16:23:35 and read 21556 times.

Quoting hivue (Reply 173):
Quoting osloflyer (Reply 170):
When was the crew assigned this trip?

The captain was a last minute substitution.

Sorry If I missed it, but was this confirmed by authorities?

This came up a week ago, and then was apparently a rumor... So, it is fact that the Captain was a last minute sub?

Regardless, if he was involved, he would be aware that being called to operate the flight at the last minute would make him look less likely to be involved. I think the argument could work either way. Maybe he has had a plan in the making for some time and was waiting until a last minute call up on the right flight to execute it which might take some heat of him. Similarly, maybe he wasn't involved because he didn't even know he would be on that flight.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: hivue
Posted 2014-03-23 16:32:00 and read 21193 times.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 190):
Sorry If I missed it, but was this confirmed by authorities?

This came up a week ago, and then was apparently a rumor... So, it is fact that the Captain was a last minute sub?

I never heard that it was refuted by authorities. Perhaps I am guilty of I'm overstating it. (See my prior posts regarding "the horse.") 

[Edited 2014-03-23 16:33:05]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Starlionblue
Posted 2014-03-23 16:36:42 and read 20968 times.

Quoting osloflyer (Reply 170):
In the video from the crews security screening, why are they walking together? seems odd to me, is the crew lounge outside security?

I don't see how them walking together indicates anything beyond the fact that they were walking together. They might have bumped into each other outside security for all we know.

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 182):
Did they ever confirm that other pilot contacting 370 (mumbling and such)?

This was debunked in the first few days.

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 184):
Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 182):
Did they ever confirm that other pilot contacting 370 (mumbling and such)?

NYT is reporting the "mumbling" sound as a fact. Check this interesting article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/23/wo...oth-routine-and-flight-vanish.html

I see no mention of mumbling or voice contact post-contact-loss in that article.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: WingedMigrator
Posted 2014-03-23 16:36:53 and read 20955 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 180):
The fire incapacitated the crew but didn't destroy the aircraft for 7 hours? Why did the crew fly the way they did?

Under a fire scenario:
We don't know that the crew was ever incapacitated.
We also don't know that the crew was "flying" the aircraft in the sense of directing its movements.

Fly-by-wire with damaged "wire" (harnesses) could get really strange and complicated.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Fastphilly
Posted 2014-03-23 16:36:54 and read 21024 times.

The problem is the Malaysian Govt. not being forthcoming with news to improve the search. Now we hear of a 12,000 altitude which diminishes the range.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: PanAmPaul
Posted 2014-03-23 16:38:28 and read 21334 times.

There appears to be new informationi about MH370 that says it executed a high dive to 12,000 feet before going off radar

MH370 Descent to 12,000 Feet Indicates Possible Fire or Explosion

Quote:
As dawn breaks Monday over the Indian Ocean, new information on the missing Malaysia Airlines plane is coming to light.

Military radar that tracked Flight 370 between 1:19 a.m. and 2:40 a.m. shows that the plane not only made a sharp turn over the south China Sea, but that it was also flying at an altitude of 12,000 feet before it disappeared from radar screens. This is significant because the question that has been continuously raised is why the plane made that turn in the first place, heading away from its destination of Beijing, China.

Earlier on Sunday,...

.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Lindenwold
Posted 2014-03-23 16:38:33 and read 20999 times.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 192):
I see no mention of mumbling or voice contact post-contact-loss in that article.

like wise..

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-23 16:47:57 and read 20809 times.

Why do the Malaysians seem to have such a hard time figuring out what the plane did from their radar? Do their radars suck that badly that they take weeks to figure out simple info such as height? Or is it not that simple? I guess there is a possibility they knew for a while and shared it with the other search teams and not the public but it still seems like they're being very incompetent

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: awthompson
Posted 2014-03-23 17:03:01 and read 20221 times.

So now all of the efforts in the Southern Ocean could be a waste of time and resources. I don't personally think that the debris satellites have spotted will turn out to be related to 9M-MRO. Perhaps the aircraft came down somewhere completely different! This gets more convoluted!

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-23 17:06:13 and read 20017 times.

Quoting awthompson (Reply 198):

So now all of the efforts in the Southern Ocean could be a waste of time and resources.

How so? The radar analysis has nothing to do with the satellites and pings. It may shed more light on what happened early on but shouldn't have anything to do with the possible plots outside of radar contact

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-23 17:07:00 and read 20044 times.

Quoting Lindenwold (Reply 196):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 192):
I see no mention of mumbling or voice contact post-contact-loss in that article.

like wise..

Nothing about the mumbling in that article... Wasn't the mumbling first said to have been heard by a Vietnamese Airliner?

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 197):
Why do the Malaysians seem to have such a hard time figuring out what the plane did from their radar? Do their radars suck that badly that they take weeks to figure out simple info such as height? Or is it not that simple? I guess there is a possibility they knew for a while and shared it with the other search teams and not the public but it still seems like they're being very incompetent

I remember in one of the press conferences during the first week when asked by a reporter about the radar system in Malaysia a MAS spokesman said that the FAA has full confidence in the Malaysian radar system as it had been supplied by the USA and China... If so, maybe it's not the radar equipment that sucks but rather the people trying to interpret the data...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: MSY-MSP
Posted 2014-03-23 17:08:03 and read 20057 times.

There are too many pieces to this puzzle that are just not adding up. I am sure at some point in time we will understand what has happened and maybe even why.

First of all for folks who are asking why are we not sending/using submarines in the area to search for the black boxes. It really comes down to the ability of the submarines to hear the pings and an understanding of ocean layers. When encountering a thermal layer in the ocean (areas of different temperatures of water) sound often has a hard time crossing that boundary. That is why submarines try to stay in certain temperature of waters. This way the become harder to detect by another submarine or listening system that is either above or below them. Often times a towed sonar array can be dropped through a thermal layer to permit listening in the other layer. I am not an expert on the Indian Ocean thermoclines, but my guess is that the Navy feels that given the depths in the search area that they could not provide any real assistance. Once a general area is known or figured out then they may have some value, depending again on the depth.

The German Frigates being sent does tend to lead to the thought that there is even more information indicating it went south. Of course we also have the statements from China, Myanmar, Pakistan, India, Kazakhstan and Kirgizstan as well as the US radar in Afghanistan saying they have no trace of the plane in their data. This information, if correct, excludes the northern track.

What I find interesting is that the more we hear the more it appears as though the plane was under control of someone or something. The thing I cannot reconcile logically, is the flight path to the north west and then turning south to head to the middle of nowhere. It would have been much much easier in terms of looking harmless to fly over Indonesia at FL295 and pretend to be an aircraft with a comm issue heading somewhere else all together. If it is in the south someone wanted that plane to be there, and most systems failures problems on board don't give you a post event track that looks very intentional and odd.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-23 17:10:38 and read 20330 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 197):
Do their radars suck that badly that they take weeks to figure out simple info such as height?

Shouldn't be. Military radars for the past 50 years have been easily capable of determining altitude, albeit not always extremely precisely.

I don't know what to make of this. A sudden descent to 12000 would be in line with a decompression scenario, but does not explain anything else that allegedly transpired.

The wait for answers just got longer, friends.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-23 17:10:43 and read 20314 times.

Quoting Fastphilly (Reply 194):
The problem is the Malaysian Govt. not being forthcoming with news to improve the search. Now we hear of a 12,000 altitude which diminishes the range.

They've been working with the NTSB, AAIB, Boeing, RR and several other bodies including help with analysing the primary radar data so placing the blame squarely on the Malaysians without more information might be a bit unfair.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: aftgaffe
Posted 2014-03-23 17:12:14 and read 20489 times.

What do you all think of this:

If MH 370 did dive to 12,000 feet shortly after contact with ATC was lost then at least one of these things is likely to be true (1) MH 370 never made it anywhere close to the search area in the southern corridor because it would have exhausted its fuel well earlier (the difference in fuel burn and air speed at FL350 and FL120 is enormous) or (2) MH 370 was definitely hijacked (by the crew or otherwise) because if it did make it to the southern corridor search area then it had to climb back from FL120, which would not be possible nor make any sense in the fire / hypoxia / incapacitated pilots scenario.

Both of these things can be true but at least one of them is substantially likely to be true.

What say ya'll?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: N328KF
Posted 2014-03-23 17:15:00 and read 20398 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 203):
They've been working with the NTSB, AAIB, Boeing, RR and several other bodies including help with analysing the primary radar data so placing the blame squarely on the Malaysians without more information might be a bit unfair.

The problem is that there have been several credible news reports (WSJ, NYT, etc.) who published stories indicating that the Malaysians missed, sat on, or ignored crucial evidence while the clock ticked. A week was wasted searching on the wrong side of Malaysia, and a few days after that while they figured out that they should probably be looking near Australia.

If the search had been oriented properly sooner, who knows what might have still been afloat or in the search zone when searchers got there?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: PW100
Posted 2014-03-23 17:16:49 and read 20180 times.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 199):
How so? The radar analysis has nothing to do with the satellites and pings

Sure it has; altitude has a strong influence on max calculated range. Remember the ping arcs, are just that, arcs. If the airplane was flying (consistently) lower, or doing multiple dives and climbs again, that will significantly reduce the max range, and thus the expected end location would be on a different position of the last arc.

PW100

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: twincessna340a
Posted 2014-03-23 17:26:46 and read 19884 times.

The UK is sending one of their underwater survey ships from the Persian Gulf.

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-...o-assist-in-malaysia-plane-search/

Good underwater survey equipment http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Echo_class_survey_ship_(2002)

IF debris from the plane is spotted it will be good to have this asset already in the area.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-23 17:28:25 and read 19876 times.

Quoting aftgaffe (Reply 204):
What say ya'll?

The authorities have the radar data indicating the flight level at last radar contact at 2:15 am. Most likely the plane was at a cruise altitude. This is supported by the plane having the last ping at 8:11 am. If the plane was flying at a low altitude, the fuel would have been exhausted much earlier.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: gulfstream650
Posted 2014-03-23 17:34:12 and read 19660 times.

Quoting twincessna340a (Reply 207):

This was mentioned before somewhere in the MH370 abyss. Apparently she has just been refitted so hopefully that will help!?

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Daylight in Aus. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: DeltaMD90
Posted 2014-03-23 17:37:58 and read 19507 times.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 206):
Sure it has; altitude has a strong influence on max calculated range. Remember the ping arcs, are just that, arcs. If the airplane was flying (consistently) lower, or doing multiple dives and climbs again, that will significantly reduce the max range, and thus the expected end location would be on a different position of the last arc.

Doh, didn't even think about that.

So I guess the NTSB's previous tracks were based off a higher altitude and TAS?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: markalot
Posted 2014-03-23 17:42:05 and read 19488 times.

I tune out for a day and now CNN is once again reporting new leads.

Is this true, or just more incompetence from either CNN or Malaysia and a rehashing of information/rumors we heard days ago? CNN source is once again 'someone close to the investigation'.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: PW100
Posted 2014-03-23 17:46:25 and read 19184 times.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 205):
The problem is that there have been several credible news reports (WSJ, NYT, etc.) who published stories indicating that the Malaysians missed, sat on, or ignored crucial evidence while the clock ticked. A week was wasted searching on the wrong side of Malaysia, and a few days after that while they figured out that they should probably be looking near Australia.

If the search had been oriented properly sooner, who knows what might have still been afloat or in the search zone when searchers got there?

Most, if not all of that data has been worked on and analyzed by TSB, FAA, BEA, etc. Especially since the last 10 days. And that data seems to include Malaysian military/primary raw radar data. If that is now interpreted differently, I don't think that can be blamed solely on the Malaysians. I tend to believe that the data (or lack of data) is indicative of how hard it is to draw hard conclusions. And that everything has to be checked, checked again, corroborated with different sources. The Malaysians have been very conservative in giving out hard data to the public, most likely because it is not available. Spreading soft data can and will bite them in the *ss, eventually.

So if the Malaysians don't give the soft data to the public, they are incompetent, and holding back information, so they must be hiding something. If they are giving it, and it turns out to be softer than initially thought, they again are incompetent. So really, they are in damned if they do, damned if they don't situation. How nice for us to be behind the a keyboard in an armchair, and not having that responsibility of OFFICIALLY proving information to the public on our shoulders.

I also believe that surrounding countries, in particular Thailand, have been very very easy with giving out raw primary radar data, which would be tremendously helpful in corroborating the Malaysian raw primary radar data.
The Thai initially claimed they did not see MH370 on their primary radar. They also claimed (or are still claiming) that it never went through their airspace, although it must have been very close to, or even in their airspace. Then they said, well we did see it, but it wasn't a threat so it didn't require further attention at the time.
Then they probably gave their interpretation of the radar data, without sharing raw data. Perhaps they now came forward and gave the raw data, and after corroboration with other data sources, now the 12000 ft comes up.

I don't feel the blame should be (fully) with the Malaysians; well perhaps maybe for the first two - three days, but we have passed that long time ago. Multi-disciplinary teams with various well established aviation accident investigation experts are on site and doing the investigation. The lack of hard data, and especially the slowliness of other parties contributing their primary (military) radar data is to me the prime suspect of why the Malaysians are not looking good.


PW100

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Pihero
Posted 2014-03-23 17:49:17 and read 19172 times.

Quoting David L (Reply 203):
They've been working with the NTSB, AAIB, Boeing, RR and several other bodies including help with analysing the primary radar data so placing the blame squarely on the Malaysians without more information might be a bit unfair.

Good point.
Add to it that - as amply proven in this forum - talking sensibly about technical matters onehasn't really got a grasp of is certainly not easy... How many have really understood the reasoning behind the determination of the southern track ?.. and how many have understood the technicalities of satcoms and FBW ?

THat said, I am glad that some degree of calm is now showing and the outlandish theories have but disappeared.
We're still down to two hypotheses :
1/- Someone, probably with an agenda in control nor imposing some control
2/- An unpiloted flight.
There isn't another alternative (hasn't been one since the beginning, if one thinks hard ).

Quoting PanAmPaul (Reply 195):
There appears to be new informationi about MH370 that says it executed a high dive to 12,000 feet before going off radar

MH370 Descent to 12,000 Feet Indicates Possible Fire or Explosion
Quoting nupogodi (Reply 202):
I don't know what to make of this. A sudden descent to 12000 would be in line with a decompression scenario, but does not explain anything else that allegedly transpired.

There is a lot more than what caused it.
Suppose the information is new - i.e unknown to the NTSB /FAA / AMSA...etc..- , it means that the southern track therefore all the serch efforts there is vastly in error :
The ground speed they were working on is apparently consistent with a Mach .80 to .84 ... TAS around 500 kt.
As I'm for the unpiloted theory and assuming the setting was kept ( IAS equivalent to M.84 at FL 350 is 284 kt ), the true airspeed becomes 340 kt for IAS 284 kt at FL 120.)
That's a difference of nearly 160 knots !
Now, assuming that the flight checks the hourly *loci*, the intersecting path is closer to a due East trajectory.
This would completely destroy the US study : the zone would be then around New Guinea !
Do I believe it ?
I'll wait for news of the search first.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: PW100
Posted 2014-03-23 17:57:36 and read 18829 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 208):
This is supported by the plane having the last ping at 8:11 am. If the plane was flying at a low altitude, the fuel would have been exhausted much earlier

Not necessarily. Endurance would not be affected too much by lower altitude. True air speed and ground speed on the other hand . . .

PW100

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Finn350
Posted 2014-03-23 18:04:38 and read 18718 times.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 214):
Not necessarily. Endurance would not be affected too much by lower altitude. True air speed and ground speed on the other hand . . .

OK. But I still believe that the NTSB has some information which leads them to believe the plane to be in the southern Indian Ocean. It is hard to believe that the plane had left the Malaysian military radat at FL120 and that would not have been taken into account when designating the search areas.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: aftgaffe
Posted 2014-03-23 18:07:58 and read 18662 times.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 208):
The authorities have the radar data indicating the flight level at last radar contact at 2:15 am. Most likely the plane was at a cruise altitude. This is supported by the plane having the last ping at 8:11 am. If the plane was flying at a low altitude, the fuel would have been exhausted much earlier.

Exactly. Assuming the info about 12,000 ft is true and assuming the plane was back at cruise level sometime after, how can what happened be explained without nefarious human intervention?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: solarflyer22
Posted 2014-03-23 18:12:38 and read 18382 times.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 200):
said that the FAA has full confidence in the Malaysian radar system as it had been supplied by the USA and China... If so, maybe it's not the radar equipment that sucks but rather the people trying to interpret the data...

That was my understanding as well. The US supplies a lot of their hardware though their Air Force flies Russian Planes and American planes. I am sure the US is applying a lot of computational power to the raw Radar data provided but determining height to within a few hundred feet for a large plane should be no problem at all. The only issue would be the clutter of civilian traffic.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: WingedMigrator
Posted 2014-03-23 18:18:15 and read 18084 times.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 213):
As I'm for the unpiloted theory and assuming the setting was kept ( IAS equivalent to M.84 at FL 350 is 284 kt ), the true airspeed becomes 340 kt for IAS 284 kt at FL 120.)

But would the setting be kept, in an unpiloted scenario? (and I do mean autopilot off)
What would the 777 FBW do in the absence of control inputs?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: MarkAK
Posted 2014-03-23 18:19:24 and read 18088 times.

At lower altitude, does the fuel consumption rate vs time increase..... or the fuel consumption rate per mile ...or both?

In other words, could the plane have flown at a lower altitude for the duration of time to the last ping and simply covered less distance?

I don't know what to make of the fact that INMARSAT does not publish the arcs for other than the last ping.

Mark

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-23 18:25:50 and read 17880 times.

Quoting MarkAK (Reply 219):

At lower altitude, does the fuel consumption rate vs time increase..... or the fuel consumption rate per mile ...or both?

Fuel burn increases if speed stays constant.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: suseJ772
Posted 2014-03-23 18:33:19 and read 17635 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 220):
Fuel burn increases if speed stays constant.

But ground speed cannot stay constant no? Isn't it impossible to achieve the same ground speed at 12,000 then at FL35. So wouldn't both decrease?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: David L
Posted 2014-03-23 18:35:33 and read 17638 times.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 205):
The problem is that there have been several credible news reports (WSJ, NYT, etc.) who published stories indicating that the Malaysians missed, sat on, or ignored crucial evidence while the clock ticked. A week was wasted searching on the wrong side of Malaysia, and a few days after that while they figured out that they should probably be looking near Australia.

If the search had been oriented properly sooner, who knows what might have still been afloat or in the search zone when searchers got there?

No, sorry, not particularly credible in my view. I'm not saying it's been perfect but, for example, the reports of them sitting on evidence fail to account for the time taken for other parties to analyse and get back to them. They also fail to take into account that by the time they announce the next phase at a press conference it's already underway. The way resources have been distributed between the search areas has also been badly reported, e.g. saying the search area had "moved" when it had been expanded. The search in the Gulf of Thailand didn't end until they were confident the aircraft had turned west. When they fail to confirm rumors that the press has built up between press conferences they're accused of contradiction.

To avoid the mass confusion and "contradictions" the best thing to do is not treat every news report as gospel. That's something I learned from the Armavia and AF447 investigations.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-23 18:40:49 and read 17393 times.

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 221):
But ground speed cannot stay constant no? Isn't it impossible to achieve the same ground speed at 12,000 then at FL35. So wouldn't both decrease?

Ground speed is irrelevant. TAS is relevant since it is the air going through where the engines are pointing (mostly). I don't have access to 777 manuals, I don't know if Mach .83 or whatever is possible or advisable at 12000.

You can't calculate ground speed just from the SATCOM pings, you can just calculate minimum and maximum ground speed from the differences between them but only assuming a straight track.

So, uh, I don't know.

[Edited 2014-03-23 18:42:58]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: 65mustang
Posted 2014-03-23 18:42:31 and read 17556 times.

Here is the raw FR24 data. If mh370 turned to the right on hdg 40 at 1:21, st what time did the left turn seen by military radar occur?

Following is all the ADS-B data i could gather from 1642 to 1721 UTC :
255 cue points with time, altitude and speed data (and discontinued lat/long, climb rate and squawk data).
.
.
.
SOURCES/METHOD USED :

- "FR24 Gr" = FlightRadar24 graph (MH370 - Malaysia Airlines - Flight history - Flightradar24). The raw figures (time, alt & speed) for the 185 cue points of the FR24 graph are included in the page's source code, all i had to do was grab them and translate them in the right units.
- "FR24 Pn" = FlightRadar24 "pinned" page (same url). The data you get each time you press the FWD button. Adds location and heading to some of the 185 "FR24 Gr" points.
- "GE" = Google Earth. For the first "FR24 Pn" points (just after takeoff, in the 327° straight line), i got the lat and long data from Google Earth. Presumably it can be done with every other "FR24 Pn" cue point, that's why i marked their missing lat/long data with a "*"
- "FR24 Pb" = FlightRadar24 "playback" page (Flightradar24.com - Live flight tracker!). Oddly enough, the points are not the same as in the "pinned" page. And these ones also include the climb rate, the squawk and the data feeder (registered ADS-B receiver which the data came from)
- "FA" = FlightAware data (Registre de suivi des vols ? MAS370 ? 08-03-2014 ? WMKK / KUL - ZBAA / PEK ? FlightAware). No squawk data on this one, and some minor discrepancies when compared to FR24 heading and velocity data.
- "PF" = PlaneFinder. 3 additional cue points, still better than nothing.

Once all this data collected, i ordered them by growing altitude until FL350, and adjusted the remaining cue points, based on their timestamp (feel free to interpolate the points where seconds are replaced by XX).

T[UTC];LAT[°];LONG[°];HDG[°];ALT[ft];SPD[kts];RoC[ft/mn];Squawk;ADS-B feeder;Data Source
.
.
.
17:20:22;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:33;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:49;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:XX;6,9300;103,5900;040;0;471;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:21:XX;6,9700;103,6300;040;0;471;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: Mutt
Posted 2014-03-23 18:42:56 and read 17499 times.

I used to immerse myself in the KC-135 E and R charts for range and endurance. I will say, for those engine on that airframe, the best endurance altitude was usually around 6,000' feet lower than best range altitude - but more relevant to this discussion, the endurance fuel burn went up 10% for a 20,000' lower than optimum endurance cruise altitude. This was primarily due to the engines operating below their "cruise flat" rpm, which is where an engine is designed to operate most of the time and has it's best SFC. The speed changed very little, and most of it to compressability. Indicated airspeed went down only 5 knots or so with the 20,000' lower endurance profile.

It should be noted the "E" model engines had a very pronounced "cruise dip" as I called it, because it wasn't a nice downward sloping curve. The SFC went down fairly linearly, and back up past it's design cruise rpm fairly linearly creating a backwards checkmark looking curve. This caused the E model to loose (gain) around 12% in fuel burn dropping 20,000' from best endurance altitude.

Mutt

[Edited 2014-03-23 19:13:04]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: LTC8K6
Posted 2014-03-23 19:25:12 and read 15996 times.

Is there any reason a new flight path couldn't have been entered after 1:07?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: WingedMigrator
Posted 2014-03-23 19:59:47 and read 15355 times.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 213):
Now, assuming that the flight checks the hourly *loci*, the intersecting path is closer to a due East trajectory.
This would completely destroy the US study : the zone would be then around New Guinea !

I missed this at first reading, but no part of the last ping locus is anywhere close to New Guinea. You would have to discount the satellite pings entirely.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: mandala499
Posted 2014-03-23 20:24:18 and read 14655 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 161):
The things that has been told about the FO is to my knowledge - even if they are pretty naughty - of the kind that does not explain a suicidal behavior that would involve the death of a full 777-200 load of pax. The FO seems to be a person who lived the sweet life. He seems not to be one who were on the edge of killing himself and a lot of other people. Doing that takes either a high amount of some kind of fanaticism or anger combined with depression.

I can only say that to the public knowledge, it appears so that he was "enjoying the sweet life". I don't think it is appropriate for me to go beyond that publicly, but all I can say is, don't believe that 100% for the moment.

Quoting osloflyer (Reply 170):
In the video from the crews security screening, why are they walking together? seems odd to me, is the crew lounge outside security?

Walking together? It's usual for that to happen here in Indonesia and Malaysia. And yes, in KUL, the MH crew briefing room is before security... before immigration. They'd meet up at the crew room, do the briefing, then go to the aircraft together.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 213):
1/- Someone, probably with an agenda in control nor imposing some control
2/- An unpiloted flight.
There isn't another alternative (hasn't been one since the beginning, if one thinks hard ).

Let's not forget the subsets of 1 & 2...   

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 223):
Ground speed is irrelevant. TAS is relevant since it is the air going through where the engines are pointing (mostly). I don't have access to 777 manuals, I don't know if Mach .83 or whatever is possible or advisable at 12000.

It would switch over to IAS at around FL270 or so of it is an FMC selected speed.

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 224):
Once all this data collected, i ordered them by growing altitude until FL350, and adjusted the remaining cue points, based on their timestamp (feel free to interpolate the points where seconds are replaced by XX).

I was hoping someone would identify the feeder at F-WMKC1 and that he/she has the raw data logs.  

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: 777Jet
Posted 2014-03-23 20:34:07 and read 14208 times.

A link to an article about how Malaysia is holding back from releasing the full cargo manifest:

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/...mh370-information-to-hinder-search

I agree with those who say that not releasing the cargo manifest will hold back efforts to find the missing aircraft. If debris were spotted they might be ruled out by not being aircraft parts so that is why it is important (among other reasons) to know what items were on the plane so all possible debris can be considered.

Here is also poll results from the same website (I voted yes as in I believe it will be found in my lifetime).

Do you think MH370 will ever be found?
24497 Yes
21828 No

Also, I'm surprised that a 'relax' time between posts in here has set in before setting in in the media! I thought media coverage would have slackened off first and it is good to see that media coverage has remained constant after the initial cooling-off period after the first few days of coverage...

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: 7BOEING7
Posted 2014-03-23 20:35:31 and read 14119 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 223):
TAS is relevant since it is the air going through where the engines are pointing (mostly). I don't have access to 777 manuals, I don't know if Mach .83 or whatever is possible or advisable at 12000.

Below around FL280 you're limited to about 340 kias -- at 12,000' that's about .63M.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-23 20:37:36 and read 14106 times.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 228):
It would switch over to IAS at around FL270 or so of it is an FMC selected speed.

That's an interesting piece of information... The question was though about fuel burn at 12000, and if it's even possible to maintain typical cruise speed that low. The idea is that regardless, speed or endurance has to decrease, meaning range decreases. But is it possible to go Mach .8+ at 12000? Probably irrelevant in any case, but curiosity.

edit: Aaaand answered. So yeah you'd be going much slower and probably burning a lot of fuel to go that slow. If they really descended to 12k and stayed there, people are looking in the wrong places.

[Edited 2014-03-23 20:39:38]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: JoeCanuck
Posted 2014-03-23 20:55:38 and read 13535 times.

There is nothing I can contribute to these threads since this is totally out of my wheelhouse, but I do appreciate those with knowledge and insight sharing information and even speculation, based on facts.

Interesting stuff....thanks.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: NAV30
Posted 2014-03-23 21:14:20 and read 12987 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 231):
If they really descended to 12k and stayed there, people are looking in the wrong places.

I think another question is, why were they at 12,000 feet in the first place?

As far as I recall, 12,000 is the limit for un-pressurised or de-pressurised aircraft?

So the question has to be, why on earth (if they had in fact suffered de-pressurisation) would they continue the flight? Surely the obvious thing would have been to 'land back' in Malaysia?

That appears strongly to support the view that the flight crew were either incapacitated or dead?

Can any of the more experienced pilots on here suggest any other reason why the pilots would have continued to fly the aeroplane directly away from Malaysia - and in a direction that was just about the opposite of the planned course, and would have entailed flying a vast distance over the open ocean before they reached any more land?

Does appear strongly to suggest either incapacitation or hijacking (the latter either by the flight crew or by 'third parties')?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: nupogodi
Posted 2014-03-23 21:34:45 and read 12373 times.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 233):
As far as I recall, 12,000 is the limit for un-pressurised or de-pressurised aircraft?

FARs say no more than 30min between 12500 and 14000 without oxygen, and 0min without oxygen above 14000 (cabin altitude). But that's America.

It's a little different in Canada with CARs, 10000-13000 for no more than 30min without oxygen for crew and 10% of pax (but no less than 1).

I have no idea what the agreed regulations are in general internationally.

But yes, if they suddenly found themselves depressurized, around 10-14k is where you'd find them with a competent crew, I think. Maybe someone else can speak to the exact altitude in the checklist.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: 175erj
Posted 2014-03-23 21:42:13 and read 12279 times.

CNN: Crew of Chinese plane searching for MH370 has spotted "suspicious objects" in south Indian Ocean, China's state-run media reports.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: laxboeingman
Posted 2014-03-23 21:44:55 and read 12135 times.

I was just about to post that. It comes after they found wood, I think in pallet form, in the ocean earlier today.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: 175erj
Posted 2014-03-23 21:47:15 and read 12011 times.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 236):

Interesting they don't report what it is they found... just 'objects.' Well, what are these objects.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: laxboeingman
Posted 2014-03-23 21:49:31 and read 11972 times.

Quoting 175erj (Reply 237):


They probably cannot tell what they are from the image or whatever source they saw it on. They will have to send a crew out to look for it, but by the time they do that, it will have moved and they will lose it. That seems to be the theme from the last few days; I don't mean to be negative.

I am not sure where the wood would have come from, if it is from the 777. I like the idea I heard on the radio in which they reported it could be from a ship.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: lazybones
Posted 2014-03-23 21:52:57 and read 11889 times.

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 234):
and 0min without oxygen above 14000

Not so sure about that?? I've jumped several times from this altitude without oxygen, and you're up there way longer than zero minutes waiting for other skydivers to exit. They don't offer skydivers oxygen until you do about 17,000ft. But then again some of us are a bit unhinged  
Quoting 175erj (Reply 235):
CNN: Crew of Chinese plane searching for MH370 has spotted "suspicious objects" in south Indian Ocean, China's state-run media reports.

I guess that odd looking turret at the front of the Ilyushin Il-76 comes in really handy for eyeballing debris. With a bit of luck this location will be confirmed 100% soon.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: 175erj
Posted 2014-03-23 21:52:58 and read 11863 times.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 238):

Well since it was from a plane, I was hoping it was something they had an actual visual on.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: laxboeingman
Posted 2014-03-23 21:53:45 and read 11894 times.

I am sorry if this was asked and answered before, but how did the officials know it dropped to 12,000 feet and how did they just discover it now and not when they looked for it previously? Do you think the source is from the Chinese government, Malaysian government, or another government?

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/23/world/...irlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: fooflyboy
Posted 2014-03-23 21:58:55 and read 11701 times.

Quoting 175erj (Reply 237):
Interesting they don't report what it is they found... just 'objects.' Well, what are these objects.

I can't help but wonder if they're just finding what was already floating in the Indian Ocean to begin with.

But I continue to hope that they find debris from MH370 down there.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: 65mustang
Posted 2014-03-23 22:07:26 and read 11418 times.

Did the 40000 fps fall data come from primary radar data or was it Rolls Royce engine data?

If it is engine data, what kind of sensor determines this? Is it an air pressure sensor?

If it is radar data, how large does the object have to be to show up on radar? Assuming acceleration of 9.8meters per second each second and ignoring air resistance, it would take an object 50 seconds to fall to the ground from FL400. Could the radar have picked up an object falling from mh370?

Everything appeared normal until the turn to the right from 25 degrees to 40 degrees at 1:21 (fr24 data). Something might have happened in that turn. A structure failure could fit the 40000fps data and the depressurization hypothesis. Here is a picture of the plane from august 2012 with wing damage.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: lazybones
Posted 2014-03-23 22:30:12 and read 10538 times.

Quoting fooflyboy (Reply 242):

Quoting 175erj (Reply 237):
Interesting they don't report what it is they found... just 'objects.' Well, what are these objects.

I can't help but wonder if they're just finding what was already floating in the Indian Ocean to begin with.

But I continue to hope that they find debris from MH370 down there.

I think the opposite, they have had false confirmations of objects floating in the water (via satellite photos) since the start of the search. But in those cases the actually objects were quickly discounted. But this time there is enormous interest in the debris and something like 8 planes and 6 ships are involved so far with the UK sending a sonar equipped vessel as we speak. I believe the other objects are various floating debris like bits of luggage/floating cargo etc. But also that they made have found bodies. It would be acceptable given the circumstances to withhold this information until they can locate/retrieve and confirm.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: NAV30
Posted 2014-03-23 22:30:23 and read 10550 times.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 241):
how did the officials know it dropped to 12,000 feet and how did they just discover it now and not when they looked for it previously?

All I can say is, mate, when I was flying sailplanes and the odd Cessna the best part of 50 years ago, 'twelve thousand or less' was drummed into me!

I think the 'possible conclusion' is clear enough, though. The flight crew MAY have maintained altitude, or reduced altitude, to 12,000 feet because of sudden de-pressurisation?

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: spacecadet
Posted 2014-03-23 22:31:16 and read 10511 times.

Quoting abba (Reply 161):
I don't think it works both ways. Have the authorities found that there were terrorists on board I highly doubt that it would not have leaked somehow.

Ah, and here you're trying to make more logical jumps. I never said anything like what you're implying. What I was responding to was someone saying that the fact that they haven't announced a passenger or crewmember was a terrorist by now must mean they've all been cleared. Yet to someone who believed in a different theory, the fact that they haven't announced that they've all been cleared must mean they have *not* been cleared. It's open to interpretation on either side. Either they just haven't announced what they know, or they still don't know yet. You can't really infer anything from their lack of an announcement. It's down to personal bias how you interpret that information, or lack thereof.

And the same goes for many pieces of evidence we have in this case so far.

[Edited 2014-03-23 22:31:49]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: jetfuel
Posted 2014-03-23 22:32:45 and read 10472 times.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 241):

I am sorry if this was asked and answered before, but how did the officials know it dropped to 12,000 feet and how did they just discover it now and not when they looked for it previously? Do you think the source is from the Chinese government, Malaysian government, or another government?

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/23/world/...irlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

There is no credible evidence about this drop to 12,000 ft. Without an active encoding transponder how can they make this statement. CAUTION - so much heresay without proof

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: photchan
Posted 2014-03-23 22:36:10 and read 10434 times.

A Long-Time A.net reader and previous member (probably about 6 years ago!)....

I've been following this discussion as best as possible over the 40+ threads, and have a couple of questions/comments (apologies if they've been discussed elsewhere but i'm fairly certain I haven't seen anything...)

1) Langkawi : I saw a post on another random blog stating that if MH370 experienced a rapid decompression or lithium fire, that knocked out their ability to communicate, then based on their position, they pilot would vector towards Langkawi which is directly opposite the peninsula and was potentially a straight-in approach based on their last known position. Has this been explored further?

2) The Flight Sim Connection : Why is so much effort apparently being spent on the Captain's flight sim? It seems that the guy was passionate about his job - many years ago i was as passionate about flight simming, and at that time I would have been envious of his rig. But seems to me that they are just chasing tails here. Of course there are files deleted, it par for course when dealing with MS FlightSim.

3) Cargo Manifest : Apparently Malaysia is refusing to release this information - however isn't this information already with the insurers? Consignees who had their shipments on MH370 would certainly be dealing with insurance companies by now?

4) WSJ just popped up saying that an MH777 has diverted to HKG earlier today due to a mechanical error. But they've referenced the story as if this has something to do directly with MH370 rather than being a random incident.

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: TheCommodore
Posted 2014-03-23 22:40:30 and read 10296 times.

Quoting lazybones (Reply 239):
I guess that odd looking turret at the front of the Ilyushin Il-76 comes in really handy for eyeballing debris. With a bit of luck this location will be confirmed 100% soon.

Well, lets hope the Chinese airforce can find the "target" debris better than they can find RAAF base Pearce !

http://www.firstpost.com/world/mh370...-airport-in-australia-1445597.html
        

[Edited 2014-03-23 22:43:00]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: lazybones
Posted 2014-03-23 22:53:35 and read 9923 times.

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 249):
Well, lets hope the Chinese airforce can find the "target" debris better they can find RAAF base Pearce !

Very proud of the way the Australian investigation has been handled, But maybe a tad embarrassing that our kit couldn't find in 5 days what an old Ilyushin could find in 1 day!

But i'm also concerned about the mystery of the above user "photchan". How did he join airliners.net in 1969 and pre-date the existence of both A.Net and the Internet???  Smile

[Edited 2014-03-23 23:05:52]

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: TheCommodore
Posted 2014-03-23 23:05:41 and read 9477 times.

Quoting lazybones (Reply 250):
Very proud of the way the Australian investigation has been handled, But maybe a tad embarrassing that our kit couldn't find in 5 days what an old Ilyushin could find in 1 day!

Luck I guess....

But don't forget, at this stage they have only "spotted" unspecified debris. It has yet to be verified exactly what it is, so it could turn out to be nothing, or something.

The Kiwi's managed to find a wooden pallet, apparently there are some straps connected to this item which points to possible wreckage, consistent with air cargo from what I read ?

Quote:
" The latest French satellite data came to light on Sunday as Australian authorities coordinating the search sent planes and a ship to try to locate a wooden pallet that appeared to be surrounded by straps of different lengths and colours.

The pallet was spotted on Saturday from a search plane, but the spotters were unable to take photos of it.

Wooden pallets are most commonly used by ships but are also used airplane cargo holds, and an official with Malaysia Airlines said Sunday night that the flight was, in fact, carrying wooden pallets. The official spoke on condition of anonymity in keeping with company policy."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/98...r-worsening-over-MH370-search-area

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: SA7700
Posted 2014-03-23 23:09:03 and read 9761 times.

Due to its length this thread will be locked down for additional contributions. All posts added after the thread lock will be removed for housekeeping purposes only.

Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 44:

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44 (by SA7700 Mar 23 2014 in Civil Aviation)


Thanks and regards,

SA7700

Topic: RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43
Username: lazybones
Posted 2014-03-23 23:13:10 and read 9465 times.

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 251):
The Kiwi's managed to find a wooden pallet, apparently there are some straps connected to this item which points to possible wreckage, consistent with air cargo from what I read ?

I'm 90% sold this is wreckage from MH370. The next big question is where is the rest of her? If the French are right, they have found a debris field nearly 1000kms north of where we are currently looking. The final salvage could take longer than AF447.


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