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Boeing: Aviation Slump Could Last Until 2005  
User currently offlineSingapore_Air From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2000, 13754 posts, RR: 18
Posted (12 years 10 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2287 times:

Our aviation industry downturn "remains severe" and predicted market recovery by Boeing is pushed back to 2005.

"2003 looks a lot like 2002 from the order standpoint....we could see a pick up of orders in 2004 with deliveries in 2005," said CEO Phil Condit.

Boeing achieved US$590 000 000 revenue in Q4 2002 but gave steeply lower earnings for the next two years based on a "best guess" and that "there will be a war but it will be relatively brief. If there is no war, there is some upside, and if it is extended for a longer period of time it is a downside."

Boeing achieved a pre-exceptional profit of US$3 Billion, on revenues of US$54 Billion (down US$4 Billion) and net profit of US$492 million.

Revenue in commercial planes was down 33% to US$6.3 Billion with profit margins of 7.1%, but that is to decrease to between 4.5% and 5.5% for 2003 and 2004. Military aircraft revenue rose 12% to US$14 Billion with profit margins of 11%. Backlog increased 20% to US$21.1 Billion.

Boeing BA at US$30.66 +0.16% in trading today at close.

More information at the Financial Times website

Stock quote from Yahoo Finance (Boeing NYSE:BA)

Information was gathered from the above hyperlinked webpages. Full information can be viewed by clicking the above hyperlinked webpages. Information was rephrased and not copied and pasted unlike some do.

Anyone can fly, only the best Soar.
5 replies: All unread, jump to last
User currently offlineSpeedport From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 284 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (12 years 10 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2252 times:

Each year the "year of recovery" gets pushed back.

In 2001 the year of recovery was 2003.
In 2002 the year of recovery was 2004.

Now we are in 2003 and the year of recovery is 2005.

Anyone care to guess what the year of recovery will be when we reach 2004?

User currently offlineElwood64151 From United States of America, joined Feb 2002, 2477 posts, RR: 5
Reply 2, posted (12 years 10 months 21 hours ago) and read 2211 times:

I'm guessing 2005. There is no reason to believe it will last any longer than that. Unless the economy completely sinks (it's actually growing right now, by the way. Many countries in Europe would be very happy with the growth rate that the US is calling a "recession"), then airline recovery will come.

Even still, some aircraft still in service will simply become obsolete and have to be replaced.

Those who fail to learn history are doomed to repeat it in summer school.
User currently offlineMilemaster From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 1097 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (12 years 10 months 20 hours ago) and read 2197 times:

Unless the economy completely sinks (it's actually growing right now, by the way. Many countries in Europe would be very happy with the growth rate that the US is calling a "recession"), then airline recovery will come.

Flywood -
I hope you're right... I like the prediction.

User currently offlineSabenapilot From Belgium, joined Feb 2000, 2743 posts, RR: 45
Reply 4, posted (12 years 10 months 17 hours ago) and read 2171 times:

Many countries in Europe would be very happy with the growth rate the US is calling a "recession"

Sorry guys, but the European Common Market is currently doing much better then the US economy.

A very simple indication for that is the steady rise of the euro!
Half a year ago you'd get 98 cents for 1 euro,
now that very same 1 euro will buy you 1,08 dollar,
because international investors are massively ditching US companies and shares in favour of European shares.

This is a normal phenomenon, because contrary to the US, continental Europe has a strong socially corrected and dampened economy, which gives it less growth when things are going good (much to the dislike of 'free market addicts' and investors) but which as a consequence also has the effect of smaller and shorter recessions when things are going bad.

User currently offlineFFlyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 733 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (12 years 10 months 12 hours ago) and read 2140 times:

Sabenapilot; where did you learn your economics? "Socially corrected economy" (!) doesn't soften the ups and downs on macro level. It only reduces the effects on individual level. Pls study e.g. the very deep recession in Scandinavian countries in early 90's, if you need an example.

"Social corrections" are a big problem too. You might be aware of high and still raising unemployment figures in many European countries. This is a very accurate problem in Germany, where "social corrections" actually make the situation worse; the employers can't adjust to the market changes and since the social and salary structure is not flexible, the companies get into trouble. And even during good times don't want to hire people when they know they can't get rid of them if needed. More importantly, "social correction" efficiently wipes off (low pay) service jobs, since low-pay is impossible due to "corrections". Also, the exhange rate (higher valued Euro) is a bad thing for European export oriented (contrary to the US) economies.

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