American 767 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 3761 posts, RR: 12 Posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 3709 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW FORUM MODERATOR
Can you imagine that!!!?
Everybody is talking about United going out of business, since they have a hard time recovering from Chapter 11. I know this is hard to imagine and something not fun to talk about but I'd like to hear your point of view about what Chicago O'Hare will become if the worst thing happens, that is United goes into Chapter 7.
I see three possibilies:
1. US Airways takes over the former United hub in Terminal 1 which has concourses B and C and I wouldn't be surprised if they open hourly flights during business days from O'Hare to NY La Guardia because they have always been strong in La Guardia. As discussed in another topic, US Airways joing Star is a likely possibility so Lufthansa could still keep the two departure gates they currently have in Terminal 1.
2. Northwest takes over that hub in Terminal 1. In that case they would pull out of Memphis and consolidate a strong network in the northern part of the United States with three big hubs in the MidWest: Detroit, Chicago and Minneapolis. They already have Detroit and Minneapolis, needless to say.
3. If neither US Airways or Northwest takes over that hub, American could get very strong in O'Hare by buying some slots left empty by United and get settled in Terminal 2 as well. In that case, American would be the only airline having a hub at O'Hare and they would have both Terminals 2 and 3. Other carriers that have the gates in Terminal 2, as well as Delta which has gates in the L concourse in Termial 3, would move to Terminal 1 left empty by United. The B concourse would be used by those carriers and the C concourse would be closed indefinitely.
In any case, Terminal 5 which is the international arrivals building remains the same for international carriers, except that you might see a few more AA or NW international flights arriving there, whichever takes over the slots left empty. I don't think US Airwyas would have international flights out of O'Hare because they don't seem to be very strong in the transatlantic market and they have nothing in the Pacific market. No, if it's US Airways, I see that as a domestic hub only.
I don't see Delta or Continental taking over Chicago because Delta already has hubs in Cincinnati, Salt Lake City and Atlanta (Atlanta and Cincinnati are already not too far from each other), and Continental would more likely move to Denver to expand it's domestic network in the west of the United States. Remember that Continental did have a hub in Denver.
Southwest and ATA will stay in Chicago Midway.
I imagine that there'll be a beautiful book released in all the libraries at O'Hare with the following tilte:
United Airlines 1931-2003
Gigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 2, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 3659 times:
US is probably in the best position of any major. David Bronner has agreed to keep them in business, and to buy any UA assets necessary.
Why would NW want to leave Memphis? So they could have an even bigger service gap in the Southeastern US? DTW and ORD aren't far apart, nor are ORD and MSP.
ATL and CVG are a good distance from each other... and serve very different purposes in the DL network. The CVG hub is a gateway from the Northeast to the rest of the country, and the ATL hub is a gateway from everywhere to everywhere.
I think both US and CO are going to rush towards Denver. And I think US will be in a better position to do so. CO will ramp up flights from the rest of their A concourse gates after UA leaves them, and maybe the rest of concourse A if F9 moves to Concourse B.
Jcs17 From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 8065 posts, RR: 39
Reply 11, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 3351 times:
I really dont think ORD is the crown jewel if UA goes under, there are 3 things that will be hotly contested.
1) The Denver hub-CO, US, and to a lesser extent NW will fight for the gates and routes tooth and nail. Denver is a fantastic market with good yields, and an is in an excellent position geographically for services to points west.
2) Authority to fly to London Heathrow-Although there are only two airlines (CO and DL) that will be able to put up a significant compensation package for the routes. I have a feeling that Continental will push hard for the rights to LHR, but DL win the rights in the end.
3) The Pacific Routes-Again, I can only see CO and DL putting up big money for the routes across the Pacific, although the yields to most market are very good, the route structures tend to be complicated and somewhat seasonal.
As for the rest of the hubs:
SEA-AS will pick up most of the slack left by UA, whatever is leftover will most likely be picked up by NW.
SFO-Whoever gains the coveted Pacific routes will gain most of the market-share in SFO, and also take over many domestic routes...Again, AS looks like a likely candidate to clean up the scraps left by the major that takes over the former UA hub. However, I can envision AA will fight hard against AS to take over some regional routes. The only problem being that AA will not gain short-range aircraft from UA if it goes under.
LAX-DL will be a big contender for space at LAX, they will especially go after the European routes that have been left by UA. AA will again also look to pick up some regional routes.
IAD-NW will make a push to acquire the assets at IAD, they have a significant gap on the eastern seaboard, and IAD could become a very profitable hub for NW, especially if they are able to do a better job in turning it into a regional hub than UA has. The European routes are also a big plus to acquiring the assets at IAD, as DTW isnt exactly the most ideal place to connect for most eastern cities.
ORD-AA will gain the most here by taking over UA's assets, when they do, they will be able to turn it into a fortress hub, like at DFW.
MIA-CO or NW will look to acquire a lot of the South American routes, although I would expect CO to come out on top.
Ciro From Brazil, joined Aug 1999, 662 posts, RR: 6
Reply 14, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 3213 times:
I think it would make sense if NW takes over the Pacific network. A more-consolidated US carrier in that region would be in a better competitive position to face the growing Asian airlines serving the American market.
The fastest way to become a millionaire in the airline business is to start as a billionaire.
Spotterboy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 3057 times:
I think DL is interested to expand at O'Hare... A very good addition to their hubs at ATL, CVG and SLC. Then Delta will be able to serve many Europe routes into KORD, wich have a lot of traffic. Maybe they will start services to Asia too?!? Thy can also be lucrative, because AA dosn't serve any Asian destinations from ORD (?)
I don't think that US or NW will take over the UAL hub at O'Hare.
In my opinnion Northwest is quite good positioned in the area with Detroit and Minneapolis, and US Airwas simply doesn't have the money to expand at ORD.
They have to stay in CLT and PIT.
Well, all in all - I think the battle is going to run between American and Delta.
Too bad that the Star Alliance will loose one of the most important North American hubs....
Drdivo From United States of America, joined Feb 2003, 118 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 2959 times:
DL will move into ORD and vacate CVG so fast that the city fathers won't even have time to sputter, let alone complain.
And, CO will move back out to Denver - they already have the gate leases - and de-focus/hub CLE in a heartbeat. As in, once those gates/slots at DEN become available, CO will be up and running there in a week.
There is no way that NW would establish a THIRD Great Lakes hub. MEM was a big regional hub for Southern/Republic, and it does them just fine where it is.
DL may de-focus SLC if they get ORD, but watch CVG drop to secondary city status. CLE is too close to DTW to really become a hub in its own right.
Ezra From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 472 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 2930 times:
In response to relpy 17, I too think it in the realm of possibility that Delta would make a play for ORD. However, I think there could be room in the system for both ORD and CVG, since they serve different purposes as hubs. CVG is a good reliever for Atlanta for northeast traffic to the rest of the country; ORD is too far out of the way for this. We've seen that an airline can operate two hubs in close proximity: PIT and PHL, ORD and SLC, EWR and CLE. I also think that Delta has built critical mass at CVG, and should they inherit United's critical mass at ORD, there wouldn't really be cause to abandon what they've built for themselves at CVG. Any thoughts?
Sllevin From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 3376 posts, RR: 6
Reply 19, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 2917 times:
I expect Delta to make significant moves at O'Hare regardless of how United goes. Look for Song to run several routes from ORD just to place pressure on UA and AA. ORD-JFK, ORD-LAX, ORD-SFO, ORD-BOS, ORD-DFW, and ORD-FLL are the likely candidates.
I agree with others that CVG could ramp down rapidly if DL can get more space at O'Hare.
Drdivo From United States of America, joined Feb 2003, 118 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 2891 times:
I didn't mean to say that DL would evacuate CVG; just that they would move their significant hub operation (and international routes) to ORD.
I think that people who believe that someone would be interesting in IAD are wrong; I think that one will be left to die, just as UAL's South American routes out of MIA - between CO, AA and the Latin carriers, there is plenty of capacity to Latin America without UAL's routes.
I also believe that NWA will go after the northern pacific routes and SFO hub; I agree with those who have postulated that.
I think that the UK will still be reluctant to negotiate Bermuda II, and that DL has the best claim as being the corporate successor in interest to PA.
As far as UAL aircraft being absorbed in the market; I think that it's just going to be the 744s and 777s. The rest of the lien holders will be invited to just go hang.
Yesterday, there was a thread and a link to a Forbes piece (I think) that suggested CO would have made $2/share, NW broken even and AMR a $2/share loss if UAL's traffic had been split up between the remaining large carriers pro-rata to their size.
This suggests that very few of these operators need equipment to pick up the share of UAL traffic that will be re-directed in the [likely] event of a complete failure of UAL as a going enterprise.
As far as the questions as to smaller markets which are now primarily served by UAL, I think that it's all about the regional jets, baby. Those flexible carriers will be able to align themselves with someone else, fast, and you'll see Air Wisconsin go it as a stand alone brand, or aligned with someone else damned fast.
Ouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4588 posts, RR: 23
Reply 23, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 2717 times:
BANGING HEAD ON DESK
I cannot believe the number of people that think Delta would move the hub out of CVG to ORD if they got it. For lack of better words...this would be the most idiotic thing Delta would ever do. Why would they give up a relatively DELAY FREE airport that is HUGELY SUCCESSFUL for an airport that would just be delay prone again? A cloud appears over Cincinnati...should things may back up an hour or whatever...but over O'Hare you are talking 3-4 hours.
Cincinnati is setup the way it is for a reason...very high frequency flights between many cities. You could not do this at O'Hare until the rebuilding is done in the next few years. While I agree there is room for some moderate domestic operations...a full scale hub would be completely stupid and anyone who would mention the idea to Leo himself would be laughed out of Fort Widget so fast they would cry.
Please people...show some freaking common sense here and get out of your fantasy world. Speculation is great...but only when it has a bit of realism to it. Delta leaving CVG for ORD would just create Atlanta North...not what Delta needs.
Scottb From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6751 posts, RR: 32
Reply 24, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 2714 times:
These analyses seem to leave out an obvious set of candidates for taking over gates (and possibly aircraft) in the hypothetical case of a United liquidation, that being the low-cost carriers. Certainly Southwest would want to take advantage of some of the market opportunities which would develop. It wouldn't surprise me to see them take over much of UA's terminal space at LAX and forther ramp up their operations there. Similarly, the end of the UA hub at SFO would also significantly reduce SFO's congestion... AirTran or jetBlue would both be in good shape to take advantage of the vacuum at ORD and/or IAD, while Frontier would certainly be the biggest beneficiary of UA's demise at DEN.
AA would clearly be the big winner at ORD, no matter what, just as DL did very well at ATL when EA failed. US didn't try to move its Southeast hub from CLT. While others might show some interest in building up at ORD, AA has the strength of being an incumbent in the market. It would take years for anyone else to match the size and scope of their operation at ORD, simply considering this from a logistical standpoint. AA also has plenty of parked aircraft and furloughed employees to add capacity, if necessary.
: Again DL is not going to abandon its almost brand new CVG terminal that has been ranked one of the top terminals in the U.S. to move to Where AA curre
: **"MIA-CO or NW will look to acquire a lot of the South American routes, although I would expect CO to come out on top"** Wouldn't make a difference,
: I too do not think that DL would turn ORD into a hub if UA vacated. DL does not like sharing hubs with other carriers. Would DL want to go head to hea
: I can see CO taking ORD over CLE. It's happened in the past with United.
: How about this..... CO leaves CLE (They have problems with the city anyways) move into ORD. HP then moves into CLE like they used CMH for but build it
: UAL Chapter7 = the death of O'Hare expansion? Comments?
: There was terrific article in WSJ a few weeks back about CMH hub closing, and the analyst quoted in the article summed it all up: there are too many h
: United Airlines will always be #1 at O'Hare...United is not going out of business. O'Hare does not need American, Continental, Delta, Northwest or USA
: The plans I have heard involve the following: At Denver, Continental will take over the A40-A99 side of the concourse, including the existing UA mainl
: 777gk-- UA's 18 767-200s are the oldest out there. But UA's 37 767-300ERs have a very good average age... something like 6-7 years. These are the best
: Here's kind of a far fetched theory but as long as we are speculating and long shots are okay: It's a given CO will go into DEN and compete with Front
: If and only if UA went out of business... SFO and IAD would be very valuable markets and someone would quickly move in, especially SFO- it is a very i
: How is ATL without Eastern? Doing just fine. JFK without Pan Am? Ho Hum! O'Hare will be fine!!
: I could see either AirTran or JetBlue making something at ORD if UAL goes under. IAD will not be a potential expansion city for AirTran mainly because
: No one has mentioned WN beefing up STL. With their presence there already it seems logical.
: Ciro, "I think it would make sense if NW takes over the Pacific network" Drdivo, "I also believe NWA will go after the northern pacific routes" Northw
: WN at STL has been relatively...well..."BLAH"...lately. They have slowly downsized markets into STL from as many as 6 flights a day to 2. Some new fre
: With the 737-700s for Southwest, there is no need for a stop in STL or MCI much longer
: However, I would not be surprised to see WN add more STL service should AA abandon STL. One guess (in my eyes) for the downgrading of STL service by W
: If it comes to UA having to sell its routes to rival US airlines, how is the process undertaken? Could someone explain? Thanks, Hkg82.
: Hkg82 - It depends which way they take it. They can try to wing a deal with US Airways (ala TWA/AA) to transfer some assets over and keep them with in
: People in Denver and in this region in general are unfamiliar with US, they have never had much of a presence here. CO would have an easier time expan
: Madcap purchasing of the pieces of United would cause disruption and chaos at the recipient carrier. They would be acquiring staff that have very diff
: Wasn't the purpose of USAir buying PSA in the late 80s to create a presence with USAir on the west coast? Yet the only USAir flights you see coming in