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Lufthansa Urges Boeing To Stretch 747  
User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 4891 times:

According to today's Aviation Daily, LH wants Boeing to stretch the 744 to extend the 747s market potential another 20 years. They would like to see a 450-seat 747 (versus LH's which seat 400) that is more environmentally and maintenance friendly.

44 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 7965 posts, RR: 5
Reply 1, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4863 times:

Fat chance that's going to happen.  Smile

I think LH should be prodding Airbus to develop the shortened A380-700 as a true 747-400 successor instead--after all, LH is going to get the A380-800.


User currently offlineDIA From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3273 posts, RR: 28
Reply 2, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4848 times:

Not surprised. I would love to see it, but how likely is this one.

Do you have a link?

DIA



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User currently offlineDIA From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3273 posts, RR: 28
Reply 3, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4837 times:

Maybe a stretched 747 would be more viable than a shortend A380. Maybe that's their thinking. How would the weights and prices compare?


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User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4829 times:

Sorry, I do not have a link for you. The Aviation Daily is a pricey publication and they do not post current issues on the internet.

I think there is a decent chance that Boeing would do it. They have no plans to get rid of the 747 and they will eventually upgrade it. LH has 30 744 aircraft so there would be some advantages for them continue with the type.

As far as a A380-700, goes it seems like that airplane would have a real problem with weight. As I imagine it, it would have the -800 wing and undercarriage with fewer fuselage frames. Of course, that is pure speculation.

Shrinks do not perform all that well in general but stretches seem to work.


User currently offlineNavion From United States of America, joined May 1999, 1010 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4776 times:

It might make sense to stretch the 744 rather than shrink the A380 as the A380 has so much more installed weight. The 747 and A380 are not interchangeable as so many of us like to think. Even with the A380's newer technology, it is still hauling around 100 tons more weight (on average) which costs a lot. A stretched 744 would still likely weigh less than a shortened A380. I'd like to see some details.

User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4758 times:

They did post it after-all:

http://www.aviationnow.com/avnow/news/channel_aviationdaily_story.jsp?id=news/luft02253.xml

Enjoy.


User currently offlineDIA From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3273 posts, RR: 28
Reply 7, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4681 times:

Thanks for the link. Looks pretty serious to me. Wow. . .that would be great if Boeing pursues this.

Interesting stuff about the airline alliances and the RJ search too. That looks good/interesting enough for a seperate post.

DIA



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User currently offlineNa From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10580 posts, RR: 10
Reply 8, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4648 times:

Nice read. Its clever not to go 100% Airbus, because that makes an airline vulnerable. Also this article outlines the key problems of the 744 in todays and even more tomorrows market. A bit too near to the A346/773ER, to bit too far away from the A380. The next 747 needs to be right in the center to make sense.
I agree with Navion regarding the shrink/stretch issue. Shrinks never worked in an economics-driven market. Shrinks of the 777 and the A330 were rejected, the 747SP a flop, the 762 is no hotseller since a long time. And the A380 shrink doesn´t look promising if you ask me.


User currently offlineCX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4453 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4631 times:

If you think about it, what LH is asking Boeing to do is not that difficult. Stretching the aircraft is possible, and going over it with a comb to increase its maintenance friendly capabilities is not to difficult. Also, LH is happy with the current operating costs so there doesn't need to be a new wing or new engine.


"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
User currently offlineDIA From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3273 posts, RR: 28
Reply 10, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4612 times:

They already have the new engine too. I forget what it was called, but it was the offering on the 747-400QERF, or something like that. An ultra-environmentally-friendly engine. Everyone laughed at how many letters followed 747-400. . .

Anyhow, someone here has got to remember the exact name and engine.



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User currently offlineCX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4453 posts, RR: 5
Reply 11, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4602 times:

You have to wonder what kind of economic improvement the new engines being worked on by GE, P&W and RR will have on the 747-400s bottom line.

I find it interesting that an airline moving towards Airbus widebodies has asked Boeing to improve the 747. You would figure that they would make due with the A340-600s and the A380s. Could this show that their is indeed a market between the 777/A340 class and the A380?



"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
User currently offline777236ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4593 times:

And so begins the mindless and pointless speculation  Insane

One of the things that has destroyed the chances for 747 stretches in the past has been the lack of airline enthusiasm, especially from key players like BA. If the airlines want Boeing to make it they will. This isn't something as trivial as the 717-300.

As for engines, a stretch and MTOW increase would nicely suit Trent 500s, new CF6s and new PW4000s, all of which would bring about a tidy fuelburn decrease.


User currently offlineDIA From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3273 posts, RR: 28
Reply 13, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4590 times:

Boeing has always, and still states, there absolutley is a market between those types, which is why they will keep the 747 alive.


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User currently offlineWingman From Seychelles, joined May 1999, 2181 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4589 times:

This kills me. I can see Boeing spending $4-5B doing this and then having LH tell them they'll be ordering the 380 anyway. Guys, LH will not order new Boeing commercial aircraft as long as Airbus has something even remotely close. They are just taunting Boeing with this request, it's a form of executive German humor. Kind of funny in a way.

User currently offlineNa From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10580 posts, RR: 10
Reply 15, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4569 times:

Wingman, you´re wrong. LH is a correct company with lots of positive experience with Boeing. They won´t fool Boeing for the sake of it.
Sorry, but a brutal, reckless businessstyle fits more to the US rather than it is a German way of deal.
I had another, personal lesson on this just today.


User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4560 times:

I could see LH buying if Boeing actually goes forward. They were bugging Boeing to keep building MD-11. And I do not think the Boeing board would approve any real expenditures unless it had some orders lined up and some deposits in hand.




User currently offlineJAL From Canada, joined Apr 2000, 5083 posts, RR: 8
Reply 17, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4527 times:

It would be great to see Boeing develop a stretch 747-400, but will Boeing do it?


Work Hard But Play Harder
User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4514 times:

I think Boeing will make minor adjustments to the 744 until the A380 is launched. After they find out what is wrong with the 380, then they will probably invest in a serious overhaul of the 747 to play on any 380 shortcomings. 747 pricing has historically been on the monopolistic side. Boeing has room to chop prices and that would further undermine the economics of the 380.



User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16239 posts, RR: 56
Reply 19, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4496 times:

Boeing will produce any derivative/stretch to market demand. If LH puts its money where its mouth is and is willing to launch a stretched 744 order, I'm sure Boeing will listen.




Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineDIA From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3273 posts, RR: 28
Reply 20, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4478 times:

And so begins the mindless and pointless speculation

Just to add on to our mindless and pointless speculations that seem to interest a lot of us to keep coming back to use A.net the way it is intended to be used. . .

I agree with N79969. But would it be too long of a wait for the A380? If Lufthansa is asking now, how long would Boeing wait before producing a 747stretch? If they decide to do it and other airlines jump on board, there would not be any reason to wait for the money to start pouring in. . .would there be?

My God, I just can't get enough of my own speculations! Insane

DIA



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User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4479 times:

It cannot be just LH. LH won't want to be the sole purchaser and Boeing will not want to rely on one customer for a potentially expensive variant. Particularly a customer that has a penchant for shopping in Tolouse almost all of the time these days. Several big 747 operators will have to show interest before this plane comes to fruition in my opinion: JL, SQ, BA, LH, QF, NH, KL, KE, and so on. Perhaps not all of these companies but Boeing will need to get serious interest from several of them for several planes each.

User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16239 posts, RR: 56
Reply 22, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 4468 times:

Boeing will not want to rely on one customer for a potentially expensive variant.

I disagree. LH is a well-respected intl carrier. Boeing would produce a derivative for LH with a sizeable order. The 753 & 764 were developed with only 1 and 2 launch customers respectively. The 73G was also approved with only 1 launch customer.




Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 4445 times:

A few years ago MH and TG both expressed interest in some new 747 variant and Boeing refused to proceed because of insufficient interest. MH and TG are pretty good Boeing customers. I think you can differentiate the 753, 764, and 73G from a potential 747 stretch.

753- this was a few fuselage frames extra and could be built on the same line. Large potential customer base of 757 operators around. Probably sort of cheap to develop

73G- The line was due for an upgrade to compete with the A320 line. I think Boeing could invest with confidence that they could easily sell these airplanes. There is a big market for 737/320 size aircraft

764- Sort of like the 753. They stretched an existing airframe. They technology developed in this project is being applied elsewhere: raked wingtips on 773er/772lr.

747 stretch- This segment of the market is relatively small. Not too many carriers require 747 aircraft. They could be hard to resell. It would be expensive and risky.



User currently offlineCX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4453 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (11 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 4354 times:

I think you liked Clinton because he played right into your hands. Basically, screw American interests for the sake of the International Community ( or should I say E.U.)

Obviously there would have to be more interest in this aircraft for Boeing to go forward. What about JAL, CX, SIA, QF?



"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
25 Racko : LH has always stated that they will continue to buy from both manufacturers because it puts you in a better position for negotiations. Why should they
26 Triple Seven : N79969, Back in 1996 MH signed an order for 5 747-500X and 10 747-600X in Farnborough. Boeing did not take MH and TG order as launch order because Boe
27 N79969 : Triple Seven, Interesting. I guess prestige is a bigger factor than I thought. But I still think they need volumes before they will commit. A 5-plane
28 N79969 : I would add one more thing. I think Boeing's strategy of launching 744 variants with 'prestigious' customers makes sense. For instance, what SQ does o
29 ConcordeBoy : Interesting. Lufty also told Boeing that it'd be interested in a 772LRF a few weeks ago as well.....
30 AvObserver : RayChuang says... "Fat chance that's going to happen. I think LH should be prodding Airbus to develop the shortened A380-700 as a true 747-400 success
31 747-451 : Let LH buy from Airbus, not Boeing, as they have been doing. Chrysler was not loosing money or broke, it was the mostprofitable of the big 3 at the ti
32 HlywdCatft : I would still love to see those 747-500, 600 and 700s flying that they had proposed a few years back before they cancelled them.
33 Post contains links Ha763 : CX also expressed interest to Boeing about a streched 747-400XQLR, but with more range. http://www.airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.mai
34 Travellin'man : When Boeing press released the 747X (when the A380 was still the A3XX), and before Singapore went with Airbus, Being boasted that they could launch th
35 Gigneil : Avobserver- The A380 is being designed from day one with stretching and shrinking in mind. All our banter about it being overweight right now won't ma
36 Aviasian : We could all debate on whether Boeing would act on Lufthansa's request . . . personally, it would be most foolish of Boeing not to do so. There has ce
37 SailorOrion : Let LH buy from Airbus, not Boeing, as they have been doing. I really do hope that you will never manage an aircraft manufacturer with this kind of at
38 747-451 : I stand by my comment, and no I do not wish to run an aircraft manufacturer. LH has been purshasing a majority of Airbus products, regardless of wheth
39 RIX : Well said, SailorOrion (except #5 - "LH is the worlds #1 airline" sounds really weird to me...). LH is a very serious customer, and in general the fut
40 Racko : "Though they operate a large number of Boeing planes, they haven't ordered new ones (lately >2001)." They were about to order more 747s before 9/11 to
41 747-451 : "They were about to order more 747s before 9/11 together with the A380s, but cancelled this plan after the attacks." However, tey did NOT canel orders
42 AvObserver : Gigneil: "The A380 is being designed from day one with stretching and shrinking in mind. All our banter about it being overweight right now won't matt
43 Dw747400 : "The A380 is being designed from day one with stretching and shrinking in mind. All our banter about it being overweight right now won't matter until
44 SailorOrion : RIX: sorry I was wrong LH is the largest airline worldwide measure by 1) International Revenue Ton Kilometers (pax + cargo) 2) International Passenger
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