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ORD And DFW If AA Goes Down  
User currently offlineLV From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 1993 posts, RR: 0
Posted (11 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 3196 times:

Here we go with the disclaimer:
I'm going to get flammed for just bringing up the possibility....I know that already. It is not set in stone, they haven't even filed for chapter 11....blah blah blah..... But you have to admit, that little Golden Parachute flub might be the nail in the coffin for AA....so here we go.


What happens at ORD if AA goes CH7? It was easier to speculate when we thought it was going to be UA because I said AA was just going to pull everything out of that red headed step child of theirs called STL and move everything up I-55 to defend the Chi town fortress (for those who are not familiar with American slang "red headed step child" refers to something unwanted or was wanted at one time but no longer important). Now, if AA goes under, UA doesn't have a hub its not to fond of to just shut down, except maybe pulling some stuff from IAD.


The second part of the hypothecial question. What happens to DFW. I leave that one wide open. I heard someone mention DL shutting down SLC and moving some resources over from the MCO mini hub but Im not so sure about this.....


Everyone's thoughts?

12 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineKimmykun From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 445 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (11 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 3162 times:

And on the same topic, what about SJU? I mean, I know SJU is AA's smallest hub (and is more of an American Eagle hub than AA mainline), but with all the talk about AA possibly going Chapter 7, I can't help but wonder what would happen. I don't know enough to speculate on it myself.

User currently offlineOuboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4567 posts, RR: 23
Reply 2, posted (11 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3130 times:

SJU & MIA could very well become US hubs...if anything were to happen. They are #2 behind AA now and growing very fast.

At any rate...American isn't going anywhere. I just hope the FA's are ready to bend over and feel the wrath of Chapter 11.


User currently offlineScott4AA From United States of America, joined Apr 2002, 321 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (11 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 3084 times:

I'm sure DL would try and fill up the void AA would leave in DFW. But there is no way they could take it all, i would imagine one of AA's terminals would be left empty, as DL would couldn't take both.


American Airlines - We Know Why You Fly
User currently offlineBlink182 From Azerbaijan, joined Oct 1999, 5480 posts, RR: 15
Reply 4, posted (11 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 3062 times:

Why are you bringing up this topic? AA hasn't even declared bankruptcy yet  Pissed ! Only kidding  Smile.

ORD is bound to be filled by someone, perhaps Northwest, Delta, Continental, or (gasp) even Jet Blue? More than likely, it would be ATA.

DFW is trickier. There is AA, then there is Delta, and then there is everyone else. While I could see Delta pulling resources to build up DFW and being successful, I really cannot see them taking AA's full share. I think Northwest could maybe do something since they do not have a real presence in the South. Hopefully, AA stays in business.

There is always Continental and Southwest, but Southwest is content at DAL and Continental dominates 200 miles south.

blink



Give me a break, I created this username when I was a kid...
User currently offlineLfutia From Netherlands, joined Dec 2002, 3335 posts, RR: 27
Reply 5, posted (11 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 3019 times:
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I don't think NW would be filled but they'd prolly get a few more gates since they have their hubs in MSP and DTW both fairly close to ORD.

Delta, Maybe they'll pull out of CVG and come to ORD but they also have their hubs in ATL and SLC.

Continental -- Their hubs in EWR,CLE and IAH. People know that CO might be pulling out of CLE and starting in DEN. I could see them moving to ORD.

Jet Blue -- it would be good to have an LCC since jet Blue already has a hub in JFK, I could see them ordering new planes and starting svc from ORD to Midwest cities.

Leo/ORD



Leo/ORD -- Groetjes uit de VS! -- Heeft u laatst nog met KLM gevlogen?
User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 6, posted (11 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2969 times:

If AA goes down........

1. DL will build up sevice at DFW, look for it to pick up many ex-AA 738s and 757s (espcially the PW powered versions) to increase service.....if AA were to liquidate, DL could pick these aircraft up at bargain prices.

2. Assuming UA is still around, it will build up in Chicago, possibily closing IAD in the process.

3. US may try to make something out of St. Louis, focus city or a mini-hub, to increase its share of transcon service.

4. NW, DL and CO will split up AA's LHR slots, and introduce service from their repsective hubs or gateways to LHR. DL will add some transatlantic service from DFW and UA from ORD to replace AA, and that will be about it. DL and UA will increase transcon services out of JFK, BOS, etc to make up some of the loss, and CO will try to step into the NYC-Carib market in a very big way.

5. The crown jewel in the AA system, the MIA hub and the latin american/carib route system (which, remember, is ex-BN and ex-EA) is a major discussion point......CO would love to have it as it would complement their existing services out of IAH and EWR, NW would be interested, as would DL and UA. Aircraft to operate these routes could be purchased out of the AA liquidation, 757s, 767s and 777s would be available in huge numbers, all at bargain prices, for any of the airline to start up service. Its very interesting.

However, AA will not liquidate........but remember, one of the problems is that there is far too much capacity in the US airline system at the moment, and if a carrier was to fail, only a small part of its services would be replaced....the idea is to take capacity out of the system so that the other carriers can survive.


User currently offlineUal777contrail From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (11 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2940 times:

DL/NW/CO cant split up the LHR slots, under the M. Act

UA would use a lot of ORD to keep the competition out.
they wont close IAD, maybe downgrade it but never close it.

US will take MIA before CO,or NW.

ual 777 contrail


User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 8, posted (11 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2945 times:

I understand that the LHR slots cannot simply be split up among 3 other carriers.......but I do believe that if AA or UA were to liquidate (which I dont believe for one second by the way), some modificiation would be made to the bi-lateral agreements that would allow the LHR slots to be divided among several US carriers. Remember, TWA sold its LHR slots to AA long before it was acquired by AA, and PA sold its LHR slots to UA long before it went out of business, so what effect a US airline going out of business would have on its LHR slots would be a "new issue".



User currently offlineMxCtrlr From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 2485 posts, RR: 35
Reply 9, posted (11 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2908 times:

The bottom line is that, if either UA or AA goes completely (which could go either way right now), it will keep the other one from going. Both of them going will not happen.

Depending on which one goes (if either of them), DFW or ORD would survive as other carriers would take up the slack, without adding to the problem (overcapacity). Certainly, the local economy would reel from the initial shock but it does come back - MIA, ATL and JFK proved that in 1990/1991 when EA and PA went hasta la bye-bye!

MxCtrlr  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
Freight Dogs Anonymous - O.O.T.S.K.  Smokin cool



DAMN! This SUCKS! I just had to go to the next higher age bracket in my profile! :-(
User currently offlineMxCtrlr From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 2485 posts, RR: 35
Reply 10, posted (11 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day ago) and read 2908 times:

The bottom line is that, if either UA or AA goes completely (which could go either way right now), it will keep the other one from going. Both of them going will not happen.

Depending on which one goes (if either of them), DFW or ORD would survive as other carriers would take up the slack, without adding to the problem (overcapacity). Certainly, the local economy would reel from the initial shock but it does come back - MIA, ATL and JFK proved that in 1990/1991 when EA and PA went hasta la bye-bye!

MxCtrlr  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
Freight Dogs Anonymous - O.O.T.S.K.  Smokin cool



DAMN! This SUCKS! I just had to go to the next higher age bracket in my profile! :-(
User currently offlineSrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (11 years 3 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 2876 times:

If AA and/or UAL were to go under ORD would probably become either a Delta or Continential hub (replacing CVG or CLE), ATA wouldn't move over there since they've invested so much into renovating parts of MDW. Would Southwest spread a little LUV by moving into ORD, not likely. As for DFW, I see someone like AirTran moving in (DFW is the perfect city for running 717s, not too many cities are out of its' range) and maybe Delta downsizing SLC and also increasing Delta Connection ops as well. I think that Delta would look to beef up their LAX ops and maybe grow SFO into a mini-hub especially if United went under.

User currently offlineLV From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 1993 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (11 years 3 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 2816 times:

The focuse was on if AA went bye bye. UA seems fine now and that if AA goes down it will survive

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