Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
NYC-Toronto, Underserved?  
User currently offlinePzurita1 From Greenland, joined Sep 2002, 1393 posts, RR: 14
Posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 2140 times:

Last weekend I did some multiplications and adds to calculate the total number of available seats between NYC (JFK, EWR, LGA) and YTO (YYZ)

I got 17,311 weekly seats. This number seems rather small, especially if you compare it with other relevant routes: HKG-TPE (35,788 weekly seats); BKK-HKG (20,966 seats); DUB-LON (57,659 seats), AA), New Zealand">AKL-SYD (16,789); LON-NYC (53,580 seats); etc.

I would have expected this route (NYC-YTO) to be very impressive in terms of available seats, especially if you consider that it links the two financial centers of Economy #1 and Economy # 7 in the World. I mean, even MEX-LAX is almost 11,000 weekly available seats.

I am afraid I would have done a mistake... What do you think?

AC has 9,200 weekly seats (about 12 daily flights in 319, 320 and CRJ)
AA offers 3,565 seats (about 5 daily flights with F100 mainly)
CO offers 2,436 (about 6 daily flights with ERJ and 735)
Jetsgo offers 1,760 (11x weekly with MD83)
DL only offers 350 with a sole daily CRJ operation




Next flight: IAH-DBX-MRU-ANT
22 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineDCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4528 posts, RR: 33
Reply 1, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 2124 times:

NYC-Toronto is, in my view, underserved, and has been for a long time. The reason is that there isn't low-fare competition on transborder routes to Northeastern and Midwestern USA business centers. Jetsgo is the only exception I can think of, and it's brand new and only offering a tiny handful of seats to EWR.

WestJet has said that in about 18 months they plan to launch USA service; apparently they want to 'fill out' their Canadian network first, according to the interviews with their execs I've read. NYC will probably be one of the first place WestJet goes--probably to EWR or JFK. Whether they go from their YHM mini-hub or YYZ, who knows.

Also, JetBlue has expressed interest in YHM. But they haven't made any commitment or suggested any timetable.

Either one of these carriers would probably stimulate a great deal of traffic on a natural business and leisure route.

Jim



Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
User currently offlineNoise From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 1855 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 2111 times:

No route is underserved. Big grin

User currently offlineNorthStarDC4M From Canada, joined Apr 2000, 3077 posts, RR: 36
Reply 3, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 2091 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
CHAT OPERATOR

before comparing YTO-NYC to some of those Asian routes remember you can drive between the 2 in a few hours. How many people go on other modes of transport (car, bus train) which arent possible in most of those other pairs. Also how many people fly NYC-BUF and then continue to YTO?


Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.
User currently offlineVonRichtofen From Canada, joined Nov 2000, 4639 posts, RR: 36
Reply 4, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 2045 times:

If there's a market, the flights would be there.

It's as simple as that.



Word
User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16371 posts, RR: 56
Reply 5, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 2038 times:

I concur with Noise and vonRichtofen. No market is underserved.

Interestingly, the number of seats NYC-YTO has probably stalled or declined in the last 15 years due to the US-Canada open skies. Prior to this, the restrictive bilateral limited the number of US-Canada city pairs which tended to funnel traffic thru YYZ-ORD and YYZ-LGA etc. Now much US-Canada traffic does not need to funnel thru a small number of gateways.

For instance, in 1981 AA flew 8 daily YYZ-LGA, 6 with the 722 & 2 with the DC-10-10! Now they only have 7 daily YYZ-LGA (6 with the F100, 1 with the MD-80).

Jetsgo is the first LCC in this market. If the demand is there, they will grow.






Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineFLYYUL From Italy, joined Jun 2000, 5010 posts, RR: 51
Reply 6, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 2007 times:

YYZ-NYC is very adequately served... AC's flights on the hour are usually half to 2/3 full on average.. AA's flight are very heavy in business class, but never usually in coach.. DL's to JFK is for connex at JFK. JetsGo is JetsGo, their numbers dont mean a thing  Big thumbs up Watch for JetBleue!!!

Mark


User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16371 posts, RR: 56
Reply 7, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 1993 times:

Given that YYZ-LGA is a very heavy business route with high yields, AC and AA would probably not want the load factor to get much above 70% on a reg basis.




Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineDTWNWA From United States of America, joined May 2003, 171 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 1952 times:

with open skies there is no question of any Canadian/American market being underserved.

User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16908 posts, RR: 51
Reply 9, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 1921 times:

When I went to Toronto I flew to Buffalo and drove across the border, there's folks who do that and/or..

Take Amtrak's Mapleleaf from NY Penn-Toronto..
http://amtrak.com/trains/mapleleaf.html

Or just drive the 4.5-5 hours.

You can't drive from Taipei to Hong Kong.

Amtrak's daily MapleLeaf route..





Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineDCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4528 posts, RR: 33
Reply 10, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 1901 times:

If there's a market, the flights would be there. It's as simple as that.

Sorry, it's *not* as "simple as that." Airlines are run by human beings and are imperfect, and sometimes routes for one reason or another don't have the service that demand could support. The existence and rip-roaring success of JetBlue, for example, is evidence of that. Airlines regularly find, hey, this city-pair has more profit potential than is being realized, let's enter there.

Most commonly, the network carriers on a route have high yields, and don't want anyone messing that up. They serve only part of the demand. When an LCC enters, demand shoots up and enplanements rise. Sometimes, as we all know, an LCC can turn a once-dead pax airport (think YHM) into a thriving terminal.

That's why I think NYC-Toronto is underserved. Big, serious LCC's haven't penetrated it yet. I could be wrong, but two such natural business centers could support more traffic than what Pzurita1 listed, if the fares were lower.

Jim





Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
User currently offlineJayce From Canada, joined Nov 1999, 520 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 1899 times:

Neil,

JetsGo isn't the first LCC in this market. A few years ago, my cousin flew YYZ-EWR on Canada 3000. Apparently, the loads were quite high.

But I agree that no market is underserved, if the flights are there, obviously so is the demand.

Jay



"Trying is the first step towards failure" -Homer Simpson
User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16371 posts, RR: 56
Reply 12, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 1888 times:

JetsGo isn't the first LCC in this market. A few years ago, my cousin flew YYZ-EWR on Canada 3000. Apparently, the loads were quite high.

Thanks for the reminder Jay. I had forgotten about the C3 service.





Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineRafabozzolla From Brazil, joined Apr 2000, 1239 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 1878 times:

I would like to add that apart from the fact that it is possible to drive from NYC to Toronto, the market is fragmented. I.e. there are flights to YYZ from all over the NE not only from NYC, whereas the other markets used as an example are all heavily concentrated around a few major airports.

User currently offlineC-GRYK From Canada, joined Apr 2000, 751 posts, RR: 36
Reply 14, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 1874 times:

I believe it's adequately served, if I wanted to fly to New York City tomorrow morning out of YYZ, I'd be able to do so....

Jeremy



Think before you type!
User currently offlineHmmmm... From Canada, joined May 1999, 2109 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 1863 times:

One does not drive from Toronto to NYC in 4.5 hours. It is double that.


An optimist robs himself of the joy of being pleasantly surprised
User currently offlineJean Leloup From Canada, joined Apr 2001, 2116 posts, RR: 19
Reply 16, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 1844 times:

Yeah! I was going to say, driving from YYZ to NYC has got to take at LEAST 10 hours. It takes 5 hours to drive from there to Watertown, if you're going that way, then I imageine at least 6 hours from there on. (Don't know, never done that part.) I imagine some people do drive, but I don't think it's viable for most people, especially for business. It's nothing like YYZ-YUL, for instance. How long does the Amtrak take?



Next flight.... who knows.
User currently offlineB747-437B From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 1821 times:

driving from YYZ to NYC has got to take at LEAST 10 hours

I've driven from Northern NJ to Scarborough (including an hour in traffic on the 401) in just under 8 hours, so that is probably a more realistic estimate.


User currently offlineBoeing757/767 From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 2282 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 1778 times:

9 hours is probably the happy medium. That has been my average (with a couple of brief stops).

One hassle factor is the border crossing, which is now a lot longer when driving.



Free-thinking, left-leaning secularist
User currently offlineCaptaink From Mexico, joined May 2001, 5109 posts, RR: 12
Reply 19, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 1757 times:

Amtrak takes 12 hours at least in my only expereince.. Next time.. I will go with the plane..


There is something special about planes....
User currently offlineZrb2 From United States of America, joined May 2000, 899 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 1687 times:

When I went to Toronto I flew to Buffalo and drove across the border, there's folks who do that and/or..

True, there are some people that make the drive from Toronto to catch Jetblue out of BUF but there definitely is a hassle factor. Any traffic on the QEW, construction and/or bridge delays makes a 90 minute drive into a much longer trek. The usual Southern Ontario passenger(s) that BUF gets is someone going on a much longer trip than NYC.
I agree that any LCC to enter the YYZ/YHM market to NYC would definitely uncover a new market of people that usually drive. I think AC would do everything in it's power to keep the business flyers though.


User currently offlinePzurita1 From Greenland, joined Sep 2002, 1393 posts, RR: 14
Reply 21, posted (11 years 6 months 1 week ago) and read 1672 times:

Thanks to all of you guys.
And thanks to all discussions produced by my thread, I realize that my numbers are not that incorrect as I was afraid. I will try to measure available seats from YUL to NYC to see if distance is really a factor in YTO-NYC air market.
I am also considering that there are way to many options to fly from NE to Ontario or the rest of Canada, so that might undermine this market if compared with city pairs as HKG-TPE or DUB-LON.

PZ



Next flight: IAH-DBX-MRU-ANT
User currently offlineTrintocan From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2000, 3259 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (11 years 6 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 1583 times:

A very interesting thread. Another point that should be mentioned is that NY and Toronto are on the continent and thus, as mentioned, the land links tend to fragment the market. Where islands are concerned (eg LHR/LGW/STN-DUB and TPE-HKG) there will always be a tendency to provide more capacity than immediately apparently needed simply because there may be no alternative links and as a result, to cater for late bookings, business pax and the like, extra services may be provided. For instance, the POS-TAB link between Trinidad & Tobago sees some 12-15 flights daily using 50-seat Dash 8 300s in each direction. This appears a lot of capacity for TAB (50 000 pop.) but because the only alternative is a slow 5-hour ferry ride which operates once daily and the need for many in Tobago to do business etc. in Trinidad, the frequency is maintained at this level. Admittedly, there are subsidies on this particular route.

TrintoCan.



Hop to it, fly for life!
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
NYC-Houston Underserved? posted Fri Dec 16 2005 21:08:51 by LGAtoIND
New York To Toronto Day Trip (NYC - YTO) posted Tue Jan 9 2007 01:39:12 by Swiftski
MEX-NYC Flights posted Thu Apr 19 2007 00:15:17 by Olli
US Preclearance In Toronto (T1) posted Wed Apr 4 2007 13:14:53 by Matt
Another Business Airline NYC-London... Icon Air posted Sun Apr 1 2007 02:15:34 by Gilesdavies
QF Daily To NYC posted Tue Mar 27 2007 07:27:26 by BBD
TOL Closer To Gaining NYC Service posted Fri Mar 23 2007 13:30:10 by Flyinryan99
DL's Puchase Of NYC To LON Route-unnecessary? posted Thu Mar 22 2007 18:16:12 by A2
A380 Coming To Toronto? posted Thu Mar 22 2007 17:24:28 by Arv79
Connecting In Toronto posted Thu Mar 22 2007 03:43:53 by Vs346