UN_B732 From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 4286 posts, RR: 4 Reply 1, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 7145 times:
Some of these smaller stations.........zero.
Southwest has a policy of having to have 10 flights a day to a station.
Isn't that true?
Look at jetBlue.........Maybe them? I can tell you that HPN has NIMBYs all over the place.
TLHFLA From United States of America, joined May 2003, 584 posts, RR: 1 Reply 2, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 7145 times:
I can comment on the Florida cities you mentioned and Mobile:
Sarasota/Bradenton (SRQ) - Not likely. Southwest has a strong presence at Tampa (TPA) and TPA is close enough to get people from Sarasota/Bradenton to make the drive for lower fares.
Ft. Myers (RSW) - Good possibility. This area has really grown and there is definitely enough demand for more flights. I am not sure if the area is plagued with high fares, but I believe that Southwest could be successful here.
Mobile (MOB) - This area is really underserved for its size. Southwest could really have a lock on the market if they were to enter.
Drewwright From United States of America, joined May 2001, 621 posts, RR: 1 Reply 7, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 7060 times:
I could really see Ft. Meyers, they could fly from Nashville, Baltimore, Houston and Las Vegas. I'll bet they could pull off some nice loads to boot.
Memphis could be a possibility because it really has no LLC service. top that with a central location I think SW would wreak havoc on NW there.
LV From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 1825 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 6996 times:
What kind of timeframe are you looking for. As WN reaches critical mass and is forced to restructure its business plan 25 years from now these could all be served.
As far as in the next five years...here is my guess (and like everyone else on here....no matter what they claim....its just a guess....or at least and educationed one
Okay, WN seems to have made it clear that they want a bigger piece of the east coast. Other postings on this forum have definatly seem to come to the conclusion that WN wants to concentrate on becoming a bigger player in the Southeast (as we all know...DL dominates and US is enjoying its cake as well)
So based on the cities you asked about
Allentown....Oh, I would say 45-60...I mean the Northeast is just to prime for picking right now
Richmond....while it is close to ORF...and might draw away from BWI...it would grab more traffic from the southern half of the DC metro....40-50
Milwaukee....no way...Midwest isnt that close to death and AirTran along with Northwest are ready to duke it out....0
Portland, ME...WN may like the Northeast but I don't think this fits their market profile....10
Rochester.....Could be...but Jetblue and Airtran are already there....10-20
Burlington....nope...Jet Blue already there and won't fill enough planes...0
Greensboro/High Point/Winston-Salem....actually its just Greensboro and High Point....Winston Salem should not be included...there is a whole other thread on this somewhere else if you are interested in why. Anyway, I argued no orgianlly...to close to RDU but eventually I started to agree with detracters....the Triangle and Triad are each big enough to support a station and GSO could do a better job drawing from CLT then RDU currently does. Not sure GSO is captive to high fares...I found MCI-CVG-GSO-ATL-MCI sub 300 on less than 24 hours notice less than a week before Christmas, or I would rate it really high....I put it at 60-70
Mobile....70...not close to MSY...could draw from as far away as PFN
Des Moines....5...on a good day....to close to OMA and MCI
Witchita....-2...they cant even keep Airtran...the Wright Admendment is the only thing this airport has going for it.
Ft. Meyers....Interesting...never really thought about it....definatly fits the profile and WN seems to want to get more into Florida...oust DL as the official state bird of the sunshine state....hum 50-70
Sarasota....5...to close to TPA and RSW (if RSW happens)
MSP...5....congestion bad....similar to DTW and I don't think WN really wanted to be at DTW to begin with.
Charleston....60-70....I have heard them mentioned before by other people. CHS would be making a big statement in the Southeast...which is what WN is looking for.
MEM...doubt it...10 at best....to close to LIT and BNA
The rest of the list....below 5 for varying reasons.
Mjzair From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 394 posts, RR: 1 Reply 10, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 6966 times:
The only airport i can comment on is Newburgh (SWF)
I would think that the chance of service there are quite good. Southeast Airlines has added a second flight a day between SWF - SFB, so that would seem to me that there is a demand there... plus, the population base of the area would warrant the service especially attracting HPN travellers since airfare out of HPN is so expnesive.
Ual767ord From United States of America, joined Mar 2003, 156 posts, RR: 0 Reply 11, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 6900 times:
Southwest would never go into HPN. Not only is it expensive it is way too small and can't expand. I live in the area and a lot of people got upset because one airline had a flight coming in at 11 pm. People complaine about UA's 737's coming in but NW, US, and AA fly jetliner sevice into HPN. HPN is mostly business travel and WN is not mostlly a business airline. It would be nice but I have to give a 0 for HPN.
DesertJets From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 7680 posts, RR: 18 Reply 13, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 6842 times:
Of those listed, Richmond, Greensboro, and Rochester would be my picks.
Richmond really does not capture from southern DC metro area, unless you are counting Fredericksburg/Stafford/Spotsylvania. From Alexandria/Arlington/Falls Church and even as far south as Springfield or Woodbridge you are looking at a good 2 hrs to get to RIC. Remember this is I-95 traffic we are talking about. Competition between Richmond and Norfolk is a greater concern. You are looking at maybe 90 minutes at the most door to door between the airports, it would be a bigger issue had Southwest opted for PHF instead. But between Richmond and Norfolk you are looking at 2 metros with well over 2 million people combined, big enough to support dual Southwest stations. Plus Richmond can easily draw from central and southside VA.
Same story goes for Raleigh-Durham and Greensboro Triad as for the Richmond/Norfolk. Both big enough on their own to not cannibalize operations.
Stop drop and roll will not save you in hell. --- seen on a church marque in rural Virginia
Scottb From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6373 posts, RR: 34 Reply 14, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 6808 times:
ABE: 20-40 Cons: too close to BWI, smallish metro area at 640,000. Pros: Able to draw from Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Wilkes Barre/Scranton, and the NYC suburbs in Northern NJ.
RIC: 100 Larger metro area at 1.00 million. Able to draw somewhat from the southern DC metro as well as a broad swath of VA. And...Southwest said they intended to serve RIC in the future when ORF was announced. To quote their press release: "Southwest Airlines, which brackets the Norfolk area with service from Baltimore/Washington and Raleigh-Durham, also intends to serve the Richmond International Airport. Kelleher stated that Southwest plans to serve Richmond 'at the appropriate time in the future,' but first needs to complete terminal expansion projects in several cities that would be desirable Richmond destinations but which currently lack the necessary facilities for additional flights."
MKE: 20 Large metro area at 1.69 million, can also draw folks north of Chicago who are unwilling to drive to MDW. AirTran and NWA at MKE are NOT the issue; the real question is the fate of Midwest Airlines. It seems like the state of Wisconsin and Milwaukee County are going to try to do their best to help out YX, though.
PWM: 0 Too small (metro population of 240,000), too close to MHT (MHT already gets passengers from Southern Maine), not close enough to Boston.
ROC: 10 Strong population base at 1.10 million, but a short drive on the Thruway from BUF. Possible once there are more gates at BWI; are there enough empty gates at ROC for WN to have two to start?
SYR: 10 Smaller than ROC at 730,000, but more distant from ALB and BUF than ROC from BUF. Also can potentially draw from Utica, Binghamton, etc., but is probably more likely long-term than short-term.
GSO: 75 Actually larger than RDU at 1.25 million (and why wouldn't it draw from Winston-Salem; INT hasn't had commercial service for a few years?). Served by US Airways Express from BWI (most airports in the East added by WN had had non-stop flights on US to BWI). Also would draw from western NC and passengers looking to avoid high fares from CLT.
MOB: 25 Smallish metro area at 540,000, but within the Wright/Shelby Amendment perimeter. Could draw traffic to/from PNS, which is also a roughly 25% possibility for WN.
DSM: 5 Small metro area at 460,000, Access Air failed because the locals were unwilling to support the hometown LCC. And it's close to both OMA and MCI. Might be possible in the future (~10 years) with flights to MDW, BWI, STL, PHX, and LAS.
ICT: 5 Smallish metro area at 550,000, poor history with LCC's, very close to MCI and TUL and OKC. The only plus is that they could serve DAL (if the locals actually stopped flying AA).
RSW: 50 Lots of traffic even though the metro population is only 440,000, and the new terminal should be done within the next 2-3 years. The primary disadvantages are that RSW traffic is far more seasonal than the other Florida airports *and* it's too close to MCO, TPA, FLL, and PBI to justify service to those airports. And I doubt that RSW-JAX is a really popular route. But it would be workable with flights to MDW, BWI, BNA, ISP, and possibly MSY or RDU.
SRQ: 0 Too close to TPA, even though the population (590,000) is larger than Fort Myers. I've also heard it said SRQ has some of the highest fees in the country.
MSP: 0 I don't see WN entering the other majors' fortress hub cities (MSP, MEM, ATL, CVG, CLT, PHL, PIT, EWR, DEN, SFO v2.0, IAD) for at least 10-15 years, unless said fortress hub city is abandoned by its hubbing airline. There are too many other, better opportunities that don't involve brutal fare wars and hub city passengers who are swayed by frequent flyer loyalty programs.
CHS: 0 Small metro area at 550,000 and not much additional population within 100 miles. CAE would be a better choice even though its population is slightly smaller.
MEM 5 Same reasoning as MSP, but a possibility *only if* NWA were forced to abandon its hub at MEM for financial reasons. Not likely in my opinion though, but more likely than MSP. Smallest metro area with a major passenger airline hub at 1.14 million.
TYS: 10 Medium-sized metro area at 690,000 and can draw from a fairly large area, but it's likely WN has bigger fish to fry in the next 3-5 years.
BTR: 0 Smallish metro area at 600,000, and it's too close to MSY.
SHV: 0 Small metro area at 390,000, three hours' drive from Dallas. And if they haven't served it by now, it's not a priority.
SWF: 5 Can draw from the northern NYC suburbs but it's REALLY on the outer edge of the area. Good highway access but it's a hike for people in Westchester (50+ miles on the Thruway) while LGA is <20 miles and a straight shot down the Hutch and over the Whitestone Bridge (though the traffic at the tolls can SUCK). A slam-dunk if it were 30 miles farther south.
ACY: 0 Already very well-served for low fares by Spirit. And too close to BWI.
HPN: 0 They already explored the possibility, the NIMBY's are adamantly against it. Will happen the day after never.
ILG: 0 Not much in the way of facilities and only about 75 miles from BWI.
TTN: 5 Short runways and poor terminal facilities. Great location, though the local NIMBY's will prevent the airport from ever being expanded.
LV From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 1825 posts, RR: 0 Reply 15, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 6731 times:
I never said that GSO didnt draw from Winston Salem....it does....it draws a ton of traffic from Winston Salem. What I meant by that is that officially...PTI (Piedmont Triad International) doesn't serve W-S. Something about when the airport was built W-S didn't put up its part of the bucks since Reynolds airport had commerical service at that time. So officially, PTI only serves Greensboro and High Point....but that is just a technicallity point.
Anyway...I also meant to cover PIT in my posting...which somebody mentioned.
The situation at PIT and whether it will ever be served by WN in the foreseeable future comes down to AA and the plans in the war room in Ft. Worth. How does AA affect whether PIT is served by WN you ask?
Well, based on statements by AA, sounds like something bad is getting ready to happen at Lambert....and depending on how bad AA "Reno's" Lambert I could see US dropping PIT like third period French and suddenly discovering that there is a part of the United States west of the Mighy Miss....with its hub to build up that prescence a mere 30 min. Metrolink ride from the Arch.
Scottb From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6373 posts, RR: 34 Reply 16, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 6723 times:
Kind of a silly distinction; I suppose one could say that BDL "doesn't serve" Springfield MA since it's owned by the state of CT (even though pretty much all schedules refer to it as Hartford/Springfield, and it's an equal distance from both). Or that RDU doesn't serve Chapel Hill, since it's in neither Durham nor Wake Counties.
I think US Airways would be insane to try to start a hub at STL, given the large WN presence there and the substantial cost of opening enough stations to the West/South to justify a hub operation there. And the fact that they have essentially no market presence at STL today.
DCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4402 posts, RR: 37 Reply 17, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 6704 times:
Thanks Scottb for that detailed and informative post! We have lots of these "Where will WN go next threads," and that's one of most concise, thorough, and detailed responses I've seen.
ROC: 10 Strong population base at 1.10 million, but a short drive on the Thruway from BUF. Possible once there are more gates at BWI; are there enough empty gates at ROC for WN to have two to start?
ROC has enough empty gates to easily find two for WN. I would say that about 17 of the 22 gates are meaningfully used. All but one are leased; the county has control of one, which JetBlue uses. But the network carriers are hurting enough that Monroe County could probably easily buy two out for Southwest. Already, United and American each sublet one for AirTran, something that would have been unheard of just three years ago.
I'd look for a shuffle--buy out AA's unused B5 and move JetBlue there, move the county gate back to B2 and buy out B4 from US--so B2 and B4 for WN. There would be enough ticket counter space on that side of the terminal even if JetBlue kept their ticketing there.
ROC is the economically strongest of the Upstate cities (which these days isn't saying a lot, but I for one think we'll come out stronger) and has the highest per-capita disposable income. AirTran and JetBlue are extremely successful at ROC, which shows that our business-heavy travel market is willing to embrace LCC's. US and the other Cartel-network carriers pissed off ROC's corporations with the rapine fares in the '90s, and everything I see in the papers suggests they haven't forgotten.
I too think that once the additional BWI gates come online, that we can expect more WN expansion on the East Coast. I'm with DesertJets--ROC, RIC, and GSO are all strong candidates, plus one airport in South Carolina to cover that state. Later they'll get to Syracuse.
South Carolina experts: why CHS instead of CAE? Just curious...CAE is in the middle of the state and could draw from the entire state. Is metro Charleston that much bigger than metro Columbia, or metro Greenville/Spartanburg?
New York is still a problem for WN...there's no convenient *and* available alternative airport. They'll eventually settle for ABE, I think.
RayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 7717 posts, RR: 5 Reply 18, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 6634 times:
I'm surprised nobody has mentioned this possibility: Colorado Springs, CO (COS).
WN could literally do land office business from COS literally year-round. Not only does it make it possible for WN to capture a large portion of the skiiers who patronize the ski slopes from Colorado Springs and further south, but also Colorado Springs is a fast-growing area with a good number of industries located there. Also, Colorado Springs is close enough to Denver that it could siphon off some UA and F9 business from the southern suburbs of Denver.
FlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6089 posts, RR: 25 Reply 19, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 6576 times:
Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton (ABE) 40 - Close to PHL, but maybe too close to BWI. WN likes to feed traffic into BWI which would not work with ABE.
Richmond (RIC) - 85 This one should definitely happen.
Milwaukee (MKE) - 50 As mentioned it depends on YX's fate. If YX goes, the WN probability goes up.
Portland, ME. (PWM) - 5 Market is a little too small and lacks the good mix of leisure and business that WN likes.
Rochester, N.Y. (ROC) - 35 Decent sized market, but not as underserved as it once was. Proximity to BUF may delay ROC, additionally.
Syracuse (SYR) - 45 Slightly better candidate than ROC primarily because it has little low-fare service.
Burlington, Vt. (BTV) - 0 Too small and already covered by JBLU. Even JBLU wants to use smaller planes in this markets.
Greensboro/High Point/Winston-Salem (GSO) - 75 Good chance, market has the size and central location.
Mobile (MOB) - 15 Definitely underserved, but somewhat problematic. The people of MOB have not always supported low-fares in the past, plus MOB doesn't have a lot of high O+D routes.
Des Moines (DSM) - 15 A very isolated market and it certainly needs lowfare service, but does it have some good O+D routes.
Witchita (ICT) - 2 Not likely given how poorly things have gone for FRNT and FL
Ft. Myers (RSW) - 65 The last big Florida market missing from WN's map, a good chance.
Sarasota/Bradenton (SRQ) - 25 A good market (though more leisure than business), but may be too sandwiched in by TPA and RSW (assuming RSW happens).
Minnieapolis/ St. Paul (MSP) - 10 MSP needs more lowfares, but I don't see WN wanting to get into a slugfest with NW.
Charleston, S.C. (CHS) - 25 Definitely needs low-fare service, but again lacks a lot of high-volume routes. Probably a better market for Airtran.
Memphis (MEM) - 10 See MSP.
Knoxville (TYS) - 25 Similar problem to CHS.
Baton Rouge (???) - 5 Similar problems to CHS and too close to MSY.
Shreveport (???) - 5 A little on the small side and lacks enough high-volume routes.
Newburg, N.Y. (???) - 50 A good NYC market, but what about the NIMBY's?
Atlantic City (ACY) - 10 Could steal from the PHL market and still feed BWI, but its very leisure oriented and served by Spirit.
White Plains (HPN) - 50 Same situation as SWF (Newburg). NIMBY can be a real pain.
Wilmington, DE. (???) - 10 Good alternative to PHL, but a little close to BWI.
Trenton, N.J. (TTN) - 15 Good alternative to PHL, but the facilities are poor from what I've heard.
For markets whose populations are between 250K and 750K, WN seems less and less likely in the future. WN wants routes with good O+D volumes and these smaller markets just don't cut it. Many of them are better served being fed into a low-fare hub by the likes of FL or TZ or F9.
Unfortunately, many cities that are waiting for WN are likely in for some disappointment as WN is beginning to feel some size pressure and is slowing down.
CMK10 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 513 posts, RR: 4 Reply 20, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 6521 times:
No chance what-so-ever at HPN. Getting slots there is harder then winning something at powerball, I've sat in on it and its hard for majors to keep the amount they have now, a new airline trying to get in would be hard. Also the people around do not want more 737s, to them every jet is a huge noisemaker. Also where would WN go from HPN? Two airlines allready serve Baltimore and all airlines that tried Florida routes gave up, its not a lesuire destination but rather a business one.
"Traveling light is the only way to fly" - Eric Clapton
Luv2fly From United States of America, joined May 2003, 11957 posts, RR: 51 Reply 21, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 6496 times:
MKE - Do not see it happening the airport even did a gate complete in WN colors and such to woo them and no luck so far. I believe it is to close to MDW and would draw away from that city if they went in. Also MSP with the strong NWA presence and the fight that would be fought, why? Maybe Rochester MN would be possible. I think right now WN is more concerned with connecting the dots, adding frequencies before adding new cities to the route map.
Gsoflyer From United States of America, joined May 2001, 1090 posts, RR: 1 Reply 22, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 6431 times:
I'd personally say that Greensboro/High Point would be a big pick now. With Continental scaling down everything, there are now 2 or 3 gates opening up.
The area is 1.25 million, bigger than RDU. ~1 hour away from Charlotte (which has very little low fair service) and a descent drive from Asheville/Hickory/Boone in the western part of the state, and it also pulls from Roanoke and Danville, VA now.
Greensboro already pulls passengers from Charlotte, more so than Raleigh. And considering the passenger rail corridor that is being developed, it could devently pipe passengers in here from Charlotte as well on that route.
Lgbguy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 24, posted (9 years 11 months 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 6212 times:
HPN was WN first pick before ISP but the airport only would let us have 6 slots a day,no RON slots and at the time they would only let 737-500 fly in as the largest a/c..all the plans for our New York expansion was planned on HPN not ISP..but when talk went south with HPN ISP came in and Gave WN the world so the New York expansion shifted to ISP....Don't count HPN out of the game just yet..there is rumor around WN that HPN has been down to DAL not to long a go and is now willing to let us have 1 ron slot and 12 flights a day with 737-500 & 700..I think you will see WN at HPN in the years to come..befor you start to bash this reply let me say one more word why we will be at HPN...... jetBlue......just think ISP&HPN can put the clamp down on JFK??????think about it....lgbguy?????
25 Deltabobo: Southwest had plans on serving two of the three major airports in SC. Either GSP and CAE, CAE and CHS, GSP and CHS, either of those choices.