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Will United Airlines Survive?  
User currently offlineFutureualpilot From United States of America, joined May 2000, 2608 posts, RR: 8
Posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3950 times:

If you can't tell by my username, I am a hard-charging United supporter, and I love that company.

Im asking, do you think they will be able to pull out of bankruptcy and get back on their feet, as Continental did years ago, or will they be another giant that will end up being run out of business, like PanAm?


Clear skies,
Long live United Airlines
futureualpilot



Life is better when you surf.
35 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16907 posts, RR: 51
Reply 1, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3905 times:

I think it the worst is behind them, however they need to get through this Winter when airtravel usually drops and get to Summer '04.

If they survive to the peak Summer travel season of '04 they should be fine, they need to get through this Winter!



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineBigphilnyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 4077 posts, RR: 54
Reply 2, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3865 times:

I dont see them recovering. I think on the of the big US airlines will HAVE TO drop before the north american airline indsutry can truly recover. And that airline that drops will probably be United.

To be honest, it's either between AA or UA, and I like AA too much, so I hope United drops.

Sorry to deliver that news to you.



Phil Derner Jr.
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16907 posts, RR: 51
Reply 3, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3823 times:

" I think on the of the big US airlines will HAVE TO drop before the north american airline indsutry can truly recover"

Actually it's not the number of airlines that is the problem , the problem is they are flying too many seats.

If AA goes ahead (as many here know) with closing their STL hub, and U goes ahead (as many here assume) with closing their PIT hub that would be better for the industry than one of the majors going under.




Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineWMUPilot From United States of America, joined Jan 2003, 1473 posts, RR: 12
Reply 4, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3807 times:

Doesn't ths topic come up about every week?


JetBlue - Bringing humanity back to air travel
User currently offlineBigphilnyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 4077 posts, RR: 54
Reply 5, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 3766 times:

Doesnt someone whine about repeated topics everyDAY?  Big grin


Phil Derner Jr.
User currently offlineTekelberry From United States of America, joined May 2003, 1459 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 3730 times:

Yes, our government will spoon-feed the majors the money they need to survive. It's the smaller airlines that I'm worried about (YX mainly).

User currently offlineN777UA From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 3685 times:

The reality is, United has done a fantastic job so far in making its way through Chapter 11. They have met all the targets so far, and are on their way to meet the future ones.

If you are doubtful about United surviving...remember...if their situation was still as bad as it was 6 months ago...they would be worrying about making the next bank loan targets...instead of wrapping up talks on exit financing and forecasting an early exit of Chapter 11; as they are doing currently.

//// U N I T E D stands.


User currently offlineStevenUhl777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 3642 times:

...And then some! United is on its way back, and as N777UA pointed out, they are well ahead of their targets and are well positioned for an earlier pushback from "gate 11" than expected, with nearby "gate 7" permanently dismantled.

United needs to continue doing what it's doing: analyze routes, fleets, costs, and customer input to identify ways to maintain their climb. For last year, they were #1 ontime, and have broken many previous performance records re: load factor, on time arrivals, etc. The big challenge is to keep employees motivated and find some way to boost morale.

Couple more things going United's way: SARS is gone and flights to Asia are being added back and/or upgraded. Their cash reserve is growing. The war is largely over, and barring another major 9/11-type event, more people are returning to the skies.

Look for United to probably dump more of their 744's, and gradually go to a twin-engine int'l. fleet. I think that Lufthansa or another foreign airline will want a big stake in them to keep the Star Alliance going, and as long as they maintain their int'l. route structure, which is far superior to what AA or any other US airline has, they're set. They may need to close a hub, and I would recommend they make a bold move and team up with a major LCC to solidify their customer base. Alaska makes the most sense, given their West coast network.





User currently offlineSyncmaster From United States of America, joined Jul 2002, 2039 posts, RR: 10
Reply 9, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 3582 times:
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UAL has made leaps and bounds since filing for Chapter 11, I think they will be one of the strongest airlines around for many years to come. All AA needs to do is stop screwing over there employee's and customers and they should be ok.

User currently offlineUnitedFirst From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 478 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 3540 times:

To be honest, it's either between AA or UA, and I like AA too much, so I hope United drops.

Sorry to deliver that news to you


What, that you hope United drops? Quite frankly, there is 0 correlation between your appreciation (or lack there of) for United Airlines and its ability to succeed in the future.

-Derek


User currently offlineWang767 From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 56 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 3530 times:

Personally I love UAL very much. Services are always pretty good. (especially on trans pacific routes) As long as United flies to China everyday, I will support it!! (MORE airlines means More Choices)


UA 858 Heavy from PVG
User currently offlineAA717driver From United States of America, joined Feb 2002, 1566 posts, RR: 13
Reply 12, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 3518 times:

StevenUhl777--You were sounding good until the comment about dropping the 747's. As we speak, the training center in DEN is cranking up for more 744 classes because...anyone? They beat the lessors down and now...anyone? The 744's are less expensive to operate than the 777's.

As usual, in the airline business, nothing is as it seems.

Also, TWA led the industry(even SWA) in operational performance(other than our miserable bag handling stats--thanks, IAM!) right up to the end. There is a huge disconnect between the performance of those in the "trenches" and the "leaders" in the boardroom.

If UAL is rushing to exit Ch. 11, watch out. Not dooming and glooming, but suggesting the UAL 'grunts' be as wary of good news as you are of the bad news.TC

P.S.--I really do hope UA makes it--I don't want my buddy trying to move into my basement if they tank and he is out of work! Big grin



FL450, M.85
User currently offlineTekelberry From United States of America, joined May 2003, 1459 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 3465 times:

All AA needs to do is stop screwing over there employee's and customers and they should be ok.

1. AA isn't purposely "screwing over their employees". They are doing it to stay profitable.

2. How is AA screwing over their customers?


User currently offlineTekelberry From United States of America, joined May 2003, 1459 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 3458 times:

gradually go to a twin-engine int'l. fleet

LAX/SFO-SYD is only possible on the 777-200ER (in UAs fleet besides the 744), and that is still calling it pretty short. The 777-300ER won't even be able to do it.

[Edited 2003-07-11 09:04:45]

User currently offlineUnited747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 83 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 3443 times:

Let's think for a moment on what would happen to the US economy and the travel plans of hundreds of millions of people if United just ceased to exist one day. The economy would probably collapse and the infrastructure of all air travel as we know it, especially domestic, would slowly crumble to a compact pile of dust no larger than the size of a japanese sedan. Many people have no idea how much impact just one major airline has on the world. Therefore, I believe the US government would go to great lengths to keep anything like that from happening. This is only how I feel, and I'm open to other's comments, just don't blast me for my opinion.

Best Regards,
Adam Beauchamp


User currently offlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 40069 posts, RR: 74
Reply 16, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 3391 times:

How can any aviation buff hope for an airline company to fall?
If United fails, that means thousands more people out of jobs, thus effecting there local economy. I am no fan of Continental but I would hate to see them go if they were in trouble.
I hope the best for United and best of luck to you Futureualpilot.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineL-188 From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 29836 posts, RR: 58
Reply 17, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 3384 times:

Actually Superfly I tend to fell that way about any company that Neil Berght runs.

He is kind of the "Frank Lorenzo" of Alaska.

[Edited 2003-07-11 11:02:31]


OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
User currently offlineL.1011 From United States of America, joined Aug 2001, 2209 posts, RR: 9
Reply 18, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 3283 times:

Tekelberry,
In reguards to AA, what do you mean to STAY profitable?


User currently offlineUnitedFirst From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 478 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 3236 times:

The economy would probably collapse

Well I think that's a bit extreme. While there's no doubt it would have some disastrous effects in certain local economies – and, as you said, the air travel infrastructure, I doubt the collapse of United Airlines would cause a breakdown of the world economy.

Therefore, I believe the US government would go to great lengths to keep anything like that from happening.

While I certainly hope for this to be true (especially for United), you'd see our *Texan* president giving money to airlines like AA and Continental before United would see a penny...

-Derek


User currently offlineStevenUhl777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 3201 times:

UnitedFirst: Bush would have a huge problem not giving money to United: Reps. Henry Hyde and Speaker Dennis Hastert both represent Northern Illinois, same district where UAL is HQ'd. As long as those two are in office, United stays.

AA717Driver: Didn't know that about the 744 classes...that's great news, I'm glad to hear it, as the 744's have made oodles of cash for UAL. United played hardball with lessors, glad they won out! I based my comment on the fact they were selling 744's to Thai and parking a bunch more in the desert. I stand corrected...thanks for pointing that out. Interestingly enough, there's an article on this website about Qantas being in deep doo-doo, which I found interesting. If QF goes on strike, United is going to see their traffic on LAX/SFO-SYD double, at least.

Whoever made the comment about the economy collapsing if UAL vanishes like a fart in the wind is right on the money...UAL's hub/route structure is far superior to any other US airline, and there'd be a mad dash to try to replace it overnight.

//// UNITED...RISING again! Looking forward to my flights to and from Boston with them next month.


User currently offlinePlugger From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 83 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 3192 times:

I think UA will survive and gradually improve their product in time. I do not think a major has to drop-out in order for the industry to be healthier. The business traveller is still out there, waiting for the economy to turn around a bit before returning to the air. All the first class flights I've been on have been full lately on various carriers so I do still see a demand for high-price seats. Not everyone in FC is an upgrade. I think the major airlines need to stop trying to imitate the LCCs and concentrate on their premium products as do the Asian carriers, who, I might add, have ALL survived the SARS epidemic and are recovering nicely, gov't subsidies notwithstanding because our carriers have gotten subsidies too.

U.S. carriers seem to have forgotten that they have to butter the bread, the bread being the flying public, the butter being quality, courteous and civil customer service both in the air and on the ground. I think UA may be discovering this given the improved quality of their product in my recent experiences with them.

As for majors dropping out; I don't see that the losses of TWA, Pan Am, Eastern and Braniff International have improved the airline system one bit.
In fact all of those bankruptcies resulted in the clogged and bloated hub and spoke system we have to deal with today. They were just poorly run (in EA, TW and PA's case) or over-powered (BN by AA) and didn't stand a chance in the cut-throat era of a newly deregulated environment. This is a huge country and we like diversity in our flying choices, at least I do. Who wants an Aerofløt named American or Southwest?

[Edited 2003-07-11 17:14:54]

User currently offlineDeltAirlines From United States of America, joined May 1999, 8913 posts, RR: 12
Reply 22, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 3164 times:

The picture will become a lot clearer come a year from right now. As of today, we can't say with any complete affirmation that any of the Cartel Six will be making it out. They are all still losing money (I know U made a profit last quarter, but if you take out those loans, they still lost money) and all the airlines can still improve their ship a good deal. I too, think that one of the major problems in the United States market is overcapacity. I don't really see much in the way of reducing that problem, besides AA cutting its STL hub down. U can't really do much; they are obligated to keep their mainline fleet at 279 aircraft. They can't just take their PIT hub down and stick all those 737s in the desert, they would be forced to move them to PHL and CLT. That is part of the reason that there has been speculation that if STL becomes available, U would be immediately ferrying those PIT planes over to STL. DL has already been reducing the fat, the DFW hub is basically an RJ operation now. CO has also been making CLE an RJ hub for quite a while now. I think that it might not be a bad thing that if we did lose one of the major airlines if it would help out the other ones. I think one major problem on these boards is that we tend to put our emotions first, hence we want every airline to serve every city. A lot of us forget that this industry is a cut-throat business, probably one of the most cut-throat industries out there. If one airline must die to save the others, I would rather have that happen than all the airlines die because of overcapacity.

Jeff


User currently offlineGreg From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 3125 times:

I think there are two misconceptions floating around this thread:
1. That UAL is in good financial condition.
2. That having UAL go out of business will somehow have a devastating effect on the economy.

UAL is still very much struggling to meet its obligations. Of course it has more cash--most, if not all payments to vendors have been frozen...or reduced while reorganizing. They still have not addressed any fleet, route, or permanent staffing plans that the court has asked for--repeatedly.
Their equity and capitalization suck (sorry, no better word for that one). There stock can't even be listed as investment grade junk.

If the 80,000 folks at UAL lose their jobs, the jobless rate in this country won't even rise one percent. As cruel as it sounds, it will be an almost unnoticed ripple with the likely exception of maybe the Chicago area. So, please, nobody think that UAL will be bailed out because employees will go jobless---it ain't gonna happen.

Before I get flamed...UAL is, and has been, my carrier of choice for many years across the Pacific (Houston to Singapore). I choose them regularly over SQ and CX mostly because of their biz class product and their great attendants (in this case, maturity counts for everything!). I certainly hope they pull out of this OK...but I think deeper cuts will be necessary before any real light can be seen....
Brgds.


User currently offlineUALPHLCS From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (11 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 3074 times:

Now allow me to clear up some misconceptions:

1) Noone has ever insinuated that UA is in great financial condition.

In fact in UALPHLCS's perfect world UA's mechanics would have voted "yes" adn UA would not be in Chapter 11. We would be in AA"s situation. They are not much better that UA financially but at least are not carrieing around the ridiculous stigma of Chapter 11. On the other hand UA has had no problem in meeting the goals set for it by the DIP financiers, adn have moved UP the timetable for Chapter 11 emergence. No matter which side you fall on those two things show UA is heading toward recovery not Chapter 7. UA is still in a boat load of trouble but these problems are getting solved and the movement is in the right direction.

2) UAL's failure would not cause too much of a dent in the nations unempoyement numbers. That is a fact. However, UA comprises nearly a quarter of the nations air capacity. That sudden loss of infrastructure WILL cause a major problem nation wide. Think of all the contractors and That a huge company has to do buisness with the ripple efect from employees and other buisnesses should not be disounted and trivial. Also the air transportation system would be thrown into chaos. Imagine if almost 25% of the nations highways where suddenly unuseable. While this is no argument for the government to prop up UAL, I think that with the new buisness plan the ATSB will give UA the loan gaurantee's it needs to exit Chapter 11 this coming Fall.


25 Klwright69 : I know this will burst some bubbles here but..... With all the trouble the airlines are in, I haven't heard any realistic discussion about bailouts. B
26 ConcordeBoy : LAX/SFO-SYD is only possible on the 777-200ER (in UAs fleet besides the 744), and that is still calling it pretty short. The 777-300ER won't even be a
27 Marcopolo747 : Does anyone know exactly what are UA's plans to emerge from chapter 11 and target dates for the actions ?
28 Artsyman : It's a tough topic to discuss what surviving will mean. A have noticed a lot of you mentioning that they have met all the DIP covenants thus far and t
29 Post contains links Tekelberry : Wrong! The basic great circle distance between LAX and SYD is 7488mi (the still air isnt that much worse) and the 773ER has a range of 8539mi... which
30 Scottb : All the predictions of national doom and disaster in the event of a hypothetical shut-down and liquidation of United Airlines are a tad melodramatic,
31 Jmc1975 : Stay tuned. We should be hearing in just a few days how many more hundreds of millions of dollars they will be hemmoraging.
32 UPSfueler : I hope they survive because my job depends on it. UALramp/UPSfueler
33 UA744Flagship : United does not have 80,000 employees. These days, it is closer to 65,000, and will probably decline to around 60K.
34 ZK-NBT : I thought the 773ER had a similar range to that of the 744? In which case I think it would struggle to make LAX/SFO-SYD being a twin. I may be wrong a
35 Dtwintlflyer : It is still too hard to say exactly what our US carriers will look like in the future...who will and who won't survive...I would think UAL will certai
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