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No more A3XX lies...  
User currently offlineUdo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (15 years 10 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 896 times:

After reading speculations about the A3XX in that forum usually I decided to inform you about thess FACTS:

Right now, Airbus and many large carriers (Air France, ANA, British Airways, Cathay Pacific, FedEx, JAL, Lufthansa, Singapore Airlines, United and Virgin) are working together on the development of the A3XX. All these don't do that for fun but for the reason that they are interested in that plane.
About "TOO BIG" speculations:
The A3XX-100 would offer 550 seats in three classes at a range between 14.200 and 16.200 kilometers. Following A3XX-200s would come out as freighters or combis also.
Regarding many routes where B747-400s are used several times daily with seating of around 400-420 I don't think that 550 seats in three classes would be too many. Please note air traffic is increasing permanently and don't forget the A3XX comes out in about five to six years, not tomorrow. So I think the growth will require larger aircraft in the future.
And even in case that 550 seats aren't required in five years, many airlines think of more comfort offered by a larger aircraft. The A3XX could be flown with 450 passenger seats but together with lounges, little bed rooms, bars, emergency room and more facilities. Virgin Atlantic will offer a casino abord the new A340-600 already...
A combi version could help some airlines to fill the plane in the first time also.

Of course, Boeing can strech the B747, yes they will do it. But right now airlines are working together with Airbus on a large plane which shows they are interested in something VERY new, in something developped for the next century. A B747-500/600/700/800/900 would be good, I'm sure, but it is nothing really revolutionarily new, it's something developped in the 1960s.
And you can be sure the price is not the only aspect which airlines take care of in case of buying an aircraft.
And Boeing and Airbus already had several wars with selling prices, the result were losses at Boeing, not at Airbus.

The market for the A3XX will be certain and nobody can really claim we don't need larger aircraft in the future...

Best Regards
Udo

18 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineMirage From Portugal, joined May 1999, 3125 posts, RR: 14
Reply 1, posted (15 years 10 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 896 times:

I agree with you. That information is on Airbus website and one problem in this forum is that some forum friends don't read Airbus or Boeing websites.
Then, we see strange posts here with comments or ideas that doesn't have nothing to do with the manufacturers reality.
Before posting something, read carefuly about that subject. Boeing and Airbus websites are very good and you can learn more than you think by visiting them with regularity.

Mirage, Faro, Portugal

P.S. I know that after this post we'll see a post saying that the A3XX will be a crap and the 747-XXX will be the best choice for airlines, but well....fanatics


User currently offlineCX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4467 posts, RR: 5
Reply 2, posted (15 years 10 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 896 times:

I am not going to sit here and state what I have already stated. Talk to me when airlines place firm orders. I hope they do make the A3XX. It will bankrupt them and that will be the end. THERE IS NO MARKET. Of course information on the Airbus Website is going to be pro A3XX. Read Aviation Weekly or Aircraft Illustrated or Flight International. Support for the aircraft is not strong and it truly never was.


"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
User currently offlineTAD From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (15 years 10 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 895 times:

I hope that the egos of the Airbus executives get in the way of clear thinking ant they do build the A3xx. They will loose as more on each plane that Lockheed did on the whole L1011 program.

There is no market. Sure some airlines are talking to Airbus about the plane but the real question is will they order it. The answer is no. Their market (frequent flyers) would prefer that they offer two flight times on smaller aircraft that one big one. There are two reasons that frequent flyers prefer more flights to big airplanes. First I have more options if I am running late to the airport or need to extend my meeting. Second if the airline has a problem with mechanical problems there is a 2nd flight that I can get on.

This will be a situation where Airbus will either go under or they will be bailed out and told that they must be competitive - no more handouts. At that point they will get the S*** kicked out of them by Boeing.

Wait and see.

TAD


User currently offlinejr From United States of America, joined May 1999, 970 posts, RR: 6
Reply 4, posted (15 years 10 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 895 times:

There is some truth to wanting more flights on smaller planes - but this
does not hold for the whole world. It might be true for America and Europe
but go to Asia and the story changes - they have 747s configured in all
economy layout just to accomodate more passengers! Also, take Australian
routes - not many flights or airlines there - the few flights that fly into
there need more seats! Also flights between Europe and Asia need much
more capacity even now - ask BA and they'll tell you. The A3XX might not do bad after all ...



I've flown on 9V-SPK.
User currently offlineCX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4467 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (15 years 10 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 895 times:

Think about it this way. Customers backed off at the idea of the 747-500/600 because of the cost and the need for higher frequencies. The 747-400 holds enough people for the carriers needs. BA said it would only need 5 to 10 planes in total and that is not alot when you think of the number of 747-400s they have (Over 50) and the number that are still on order. Customers are looking for an aircraft that can fly further with a little less pax and one that flies the same distance with a little more pax. That is why Boeing is offering the 747-200ERX and 747-400X.


"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
User currently offlineJonas 777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (15 years 10 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 895 times:

Hello everyone!
I completly agree with udo!
I think the a3xx will be a sucess in a couple of years!

¨mvh JOnas


User currently offlineMirage From Portugal, joined May 1999, 3125 posts, RR: 14
Reply 7, posted (15 years 10 months 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 895 times:

I'm glad to know that you are a representative of United Airlines, Japan Air Lines, Federal Express, Virgin Atlantic, Singapore Airlines, Air Canada, British Airways, Cathay Pacific Airways, Air France, All Nippon Airways, and Lufthansa. You have a great job, congratulations.

You have put the question: "will these airlines order the A3XX?"
You have answer: "no"

There are other markets like the holiday flights, were some tour operator gets a big group of tourists. Then these group goes to some paradise island out there and spends 8 or 15 days on the beach or something like that. After this they return home. This kind of market requests large planes with small nº of flights.

You also say that at some point they (Airbus) will get the S*** kicked out of them by Boeing.
If you are so sure about this in the future, can you please tell me what will be the lottery numbers next week? Thanks

Mirage, Faro, Portugal


User currently offlineL-188 From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 29836 posts, RR: 58
Reply 8, posted (15 years 10 months 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 896 times:

First of all the Airbus website is about as pro-Airbus as the Boeing site is as pro-Boeing. By the same token the Airbus site is a pro-Boeing and the Boeing site is as pro-Airbus. You shouldn't use either site as a reference to decide what the market is going to do.

In the US I don't think there will be much of a market for the next couple of decades. The reason you ask. It is the same reason you also don't see a lot of 747 flying domestic routes. People have decided that they rather fly direct then fly through hubs. Under the hub system you fly all your pax to a big airport where they board a big airplane fly to another big airport then board a smaller airplane to get to the smaller airport where they want to go. Now that we have longer ranged smaller aircraft (767,777,A-330,A-340 on international and 757, A320 and 737NG on Domestic) flying direct between smaller citypairs rather then going through hubs. This has several effects. It reduces the traffic at hub airports because you are bypassing it. You reduce the need for larger aircraft because you are only dealing with origin traffic rather then combining several planeloads into one flight. Your customers are happier because they don't have to make as many stops. It used to be that you couldn't fly from Seattle to London or Atlanta to Stuttgart or from Seattle direct to Memphis but had to go through JFK to either London, Frankfurt or Paris. Because of the longer ranged capabilities of todays aircraft those smaller market city pairs are being linked by direct flights.

Now in Asia the situation is different. There you don't have as many airports or as much land mass to build them on. In Europe you have simular problems although not as severe plus there is much more concern about enviormental factors. Also there are highly develop altenatives to new airports and flights (Rail). There there is more change of a market for the larger aircraft being devloped earlier then in the United States. But then again in Europe you don't see a lot of 747's flying domestic routes there either. Only in Aisa, especialy Japan do you see a current need for these large aircraft. But then again there still are a lot of twins being flown there too.

The A-3xx from and engineering standpoint feasable. The question is will it be economicly feasable. In Asia and Japan right now it could possible be, In Europe I don't think the market is that saturated yet and in the US it will be a long time because of the differences in the buisness enviroment here. The question is will an asian market be able to pay off the development costs or at least support the costs untill a makert devlops in Europe or much later the US.

Oh. One last comment. I have seen the pictures of the mockup. If you belive that is what the interior of one of these airplanes is going to look like, Forget it! The designers may want that and the flying public thinks that is what it is going to want untill they see the price on the ticket for all of that extra space. It is a simple buisness principal. The more people you can get to share the cost, the less you can charge and if you can keep your prices lower than your competier more people will fly you. Most airlines figured this out when they took out the upper deck lounges on all of their older 747's back in the seventies.



OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
User currently offlineTAD From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (15 years 10 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 896 times:

The point here is that Airbus needs to sell 500+ copies of the A3xx to make it profitable. I don't see that big of a market out there. Maybe a total of 100 will be built if "Egos" get in the way and it is built.

If I am wrong, then I am misjudging the market. I would not be the first or the last.

TAD


User currently offlineB767-400ER From Hong Kong, joined Apr 2000, 290 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (15 years 10 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 898 times:

Why would Federal Express be intrested in the A3XX? They will be making a A3XX freighter plane? That would be pretty cool to see 3 decks (including cargo hold) of cargo. Never seen the highest deck to becoming a cargo room to. If so, wont the planes structure be to heavy on top?

User currently offlinejr From United States of America, joined May 1999, 970 posts, RR: 6
Reply 11, posted (15 years 10 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 896 times:

FedEx doesn't operate the 747, I don't think they are serious about the
A3xx



I've flown on 9V-SPK.
User currently offlineUnitedAir From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (15 years 10 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 895 times:

Good for you, voicing your opinion. Why does it seem that if we don't share Mirage's opinion, we are automatically wrong? I'll be waiting for more of your complianing, Mirage.

User currently offlineNavion From United States of America, joined May 1999, 1015 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (15 years 10 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 896 times:

I find Airbus financial estimates of the cost to build the A3XX to be grossly underestimated when compared to virtually every other airliner project we have seen from this time to the past 10 years. Examine Boeing's estimated cost of the 747-500/600 derivative developments with Airbus estimate of $8 Billion total development cost of the A3XX. My own rough guess after looking at other projects is the A3XX will cost $12-$15 Billion if it costs a dollar. I would really like to see this brute fly but the economics Airbus is talking about just don't agree with other aerospace project costs elsewhere. It's possible if the true project cost of the A3XX were known, it would not be supported. This is one major difference between a publicly traded company like Boeing compared to a quasi-governmental organization like Airbus. Once Airbus becomes a single corporate entity, it will be interesting to see how the approval processes take place. Investors are truly the toughest bosses!!! Airbus can do it.

User currently offlineMirage From Portugal, joined May 1999, 3125 posts, RR: 14
Reply 14, posted (15 years 10 months 6 days ago) and read 895 times:

I'm not complaining, the fun of this is how people can be so sure about the future without strong facts or arguments.
Do you like to see posts here saying that Boeing will kick ***** of Airbus, or Airbus will kick ***** of Boeing?
I don't like.


User currently offlineN747-400 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (15 years 10 months 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 895 times:

747's are enought and better. Go boeing.

User currently offlineUdo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (15 years 10 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 895 times:

Thanks to everybody who wrote a comment, again it was quite funny to see who's informed and who's not, as well who knows how to discuss and who doesn not.

Everybody knows that I',m sure of an A3XX's future which I have several arguments for.
I must say I respect all the others's opinions, there were some interesting arguments of the A3XX opponents too.
Oh by the way, jr, FedEx does use B747s, the current number is seven (following jp airline fleets&WAFN)

IMy suggestion now is: Let's wait and see. In a few years we will know who was right and which prediction was the wrong one.

But again, to all people who only can use phrases like: "This one the best one" (where's the because???), or "Boeing will kick Airbus's ...." or "Airbus will kick Boeing's ..." : Please go to any funny kiddy chat where such a nonsense is used frequently but please let us enthusiasts discuss in a fair, normal way, with arguments and facts.


Best Regards
Udo


User currently offlineCX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4467 posts, RR: 5
Reply 17, posted (15 years 10 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 895 times:

It is interesting to see what different people have to say about the same market and the same aircraft. As for Fedex operating 747s they no longer do. I asked Fedex this question a while back. They do operate three wet leased 747s from Atlas Air though. 1 747-200F and 2 747-400Fs.


"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
User currently offlineCX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4467 posts, RR: 5
Reply 18, posted (15 years 10 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 895 times:

If you read my posts, I have never stated that Boeing will kick Airbuses A$$ or anything like that.


"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
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