Bobrayner From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2003, 2227 posts, RR: 6
Reply 1, posted (11 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 2603 times:
I haven't yet seen any similar, recent studies by Airbus...
Just a couple of content-free press releases.
Boeing's market analysis says that only 71 aircraft will be needed in the large twin-aisle transport category--747s or A380s--or just 3% of the market.
The 7.1% growth predicted by Boeing is roughly in line with the current Five Year Plan. Looking more closely at the plan, it expects the strongest growth in markets that are currently quite small - thick routes won't grow as strongly.
Also, they're spending lots of time and money improving rail links between these major destinations (Beijing-Shanghai used to take a day, now it's 14 hours, soon it'll be 5), and also stretching rails out to destinations that are currently only practical to reach by air. Being attacked from below, airlines would presumably put more emphasis on high frequencies than on moving millions of people.
Hence, demand for really big airliners isn't going to be so strong...