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2010: Who Will Deliver More Planes: Boe Or Airbus?  
User currently offlineFlyABR From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 666 posts, RR: 0
Posted (11 years 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 2997 times:

Last year or this year, can't remember which...Airbus will deliver more planes than Boeing for the first time ever. Do you think this will continue forever? Does seem as if airbus has offerings that the airlines are gravitating toward with increasing frequency. Is Boeing's goose cooked? Should Boeing have developed an entirely new 737/757 fuselage that would compete with or surpass airbus'? I guess only time will tell, but airbus sure seems on a roll as of the past few years...



15 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineJBirdAV8r From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 4491 posts, RR: 21
Reply 1, posted (11 years 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 2967 times:

Let the flames begin.


I got my head checked--by a jumbo jet
User currently offlineFlyABR From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 666 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (11 years 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 2939 times:

I really didn't intend for this to be an inflammatory topic. But I suppose that will happen. I guess my question stems from an internal feeling that airbus is beginning to dominate the sales of large aircraft. Makes me really wonder what Boeing can do to stem the tide? Maybe the 7e7 family will help. Don't know. But as it stands right now the 737 and 777 seem to be the only Boeing machines with some force in the market place.

User currently offlineAerobalance From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 4682 posts, RR: 47
Reply 3, posted (11 years 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 2924 times:

Who knows....... maybe Embraer will.


"Sing a song, play guitar, make it snappy..."
User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12569 posts, RR: 46
Reply 4, posted (11 years 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 2884 times:
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OK, let's have a sensible grown-up discussion! A is great, B sucks, or was it A makes flying coffins out of plastic and B's planes are all 40-year old designs.(No, not really that's just a wind-up!)  Wink/being sarcastic

Earlier this year, both B and A said that A would deliver more aircraft. Not a lot more, but a few more (something like 280 vs 300). However, the year to date deliveries up to end August, still show B ahead, so unless A has a delivery surge in Q4....

Over the last few years sales have been split just about 50-50 (some years A sells more, some B), I suspect B has been ahead on deliveries, but A has a bigger backlog. This year on sales, A is well ahead at the moment (just about level on single-aisle, but A way ahead on big stuff), so unless B has a big 4Q order up its sleeve....

Personally, I think the world needs two strong manufacturers to keep innovation and new planes being produced. It would be a bad thing for the airlines, and especially their pax, if either A or B dropped out. Over the next few years, assuming B stays in the game (and I can see circumstances where they don't go ahead with 7E7, 757 & 767 civil sales end, 747 is slowly dropping off, leaving only 737 & 777 competing with A), I would expect to see periods where one does better than the other, as new models come on attacking a gap in the other's range. In the long run though, it is probably best for everyone if they maintain roughly 50-50 split of sales and deliveries.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineQb001 From Canada, joined Apr 2000, 2053 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (11 years 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 2882 times:

Never make predictions; especially if they're about the future...


Never let the facts get in the way of a good theory.
User currently offlineCfalk From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (11 years 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 2886 times:

So far this year, I think Boeing is still delivering more planes, but Airbus's order book is getting quite a bit larger.

Forecast to 2010:
Airbus:
- will have launched the A380 4 years previously and will be maybe halfway through their order book. Like the 747 was for Boeing, it should be a slow seller but will bring in money over the long term.
- The A330 and A340 line (except for the -500/-600) will be getting a little long in the tooth by then. Airbus might begin to think about a replacement sometime between 2015 and 2025. Without a major upgrade until then, I expect the 7E7 will pretty much wipe out the bottom of the line - the A330-200 and maybe even put a bad dent in the A330-300.
- The A320 line will definately be getting old. I have not heard of any plans for a major upgrade to the models that will have been on sale for 22 years. If Boeing starts thinking about a 737 replacement, look for a major revamp of the A320 (not a new plane though)

Boeing:
- Will have the 7E7 in full production, and its numbers will far outstrip sales of the A380 (in numbers of deliveries, if not $ value).
- The 737 will still be in production, but like the A320, it should be possible to make some big improvements by then. Can the 737 be upgraded AGAIN? Or will Boeing use the welcome cash flow from the 7E7 to fund development of an all-new 737 replacement?
- The 777 line will be approaching middle age - maybe time for some upgrades in terms of engines, avionics and the like.
- The 747 will probably need a major revamp by then. In fact it needs it now, but Boeing can't afford another big R&D program at the same time as the 7E7. Once launched, can the 7E7's cash flow fund both a 737 replacement and revived 747-X development programs?

Those are my thoughts, off the top of my head.

Charles

[Edited 2003-09-25 21:57:52]

User currently offlineFlyABR From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 666 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (11 years 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 2822 times:

i agree! we definitely don't wanna lose either manufacturer. that would be bad for airlines in general. in fact, it would be nice if there were an alternative to both...sure would have been great to have MD or Lockheed around with a full slate of commercial products...!

but i suppose the world ain't big enough for 3 "big" aircraft producers...

[Edited 2003-09-25 22:01:37]

User currently offlineAirways6max From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 494 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (11 years 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 2770 times:

Airbus is dominating the large airplane market, which has always been a Boeing preserve. It is a blow to Boeing's prestige that Airbus is now offering huge, four-engined jets, such as the A340-600 and the soon-to-be-available A380. No longer will the largest planes in the sky be Boeings.

The 737, although wildly successful, is a forty-year old design and can trace its roots to the 707. The 747, while still the largest commercial airplane in the skies, is also growing obsolete, as well as expensive to operate.

To regain the upper hand in the commercial airplane market, Boeing will have to develop an all-new product lineup based on the 7E7 or the now-shelved Trans-Sonic Transport. Boeing's new products must be high-tech, affordable and fuel-efficient.


User currently offlineSegmentKing From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (11 years 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 2712 times:

I also vote for Embraer for the year 2010  Smile/happy/getting dizzy I think the Brazilians will do laps around Boeing AND Airbus..

-n


User currently offlinePVD757 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3414 posts, RR: 16
Reply 10, posted (11 years 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 2648 times:

Boeing will if they hav a replacement for the 737 and a new variant of the 747.

User currently offlineKorg747 From United States of America, joined Mar 2003, 549 posts, RR: 5
Reply 11, posted (11 years 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 2636 times:

Probably boeing since the 7e7 will replace the 767s and 757 and their is large numbers of both of those products now. that is if airbus don't come up with a true a300 replacment.


Please excuse my English!
User currently offlineHlywdCatft From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 5321 posts, RR: 6
Reply 12, posted (11 years 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 2508 times:

Who knows, does anyone have a crystal ball?

Its important that two large aircraft manufacturers stay around and I mean large by like 150 seaters or more. As far as I know Bombardier and Embraer don't have any plans for widebodies yet.

If Boeing or Airbus were to go out of business it would kill the aviation industry because A or B would have a monopoly and they would raise the price of their aircraft putting many airlines out of business who now cannot afford new aircraft.


User currently offlineElwood64151 From United States of America, joined Feb 2002, 2477 posts, RR: 6
Reply 13, posted (11 years 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 2469 times:

When Lockheed and Douglas were the big competitors of the late 1940s and 1950s, most people still thought of Boeing as the company that made bombers, not commercial aircraft. The fact they they actually were building some successful models didn't enter into the equation.

Who would have thought back then that Douglas would be swallowed up by McDonnell, a small fighter plane manufacturer building mostly for the navy, and then later by Boeing; that Lockheed would be out of the commercial aircraft business alltogether; that most of the European manufacturers would be building military planes or assembling parts for a company called "Airbus"; that the role that Martin and Convair filled at the time would now be taken over by companies from Brazil and Canada...

In seven years, who knows where we'll be? I think that B and A will be in roughly the same 50-50 position they are in now. Maybe 55-45, maybe 45-55, maybe 60-40, whatever. But they'll be roughly equal. Ten years after that? Maybe Embarer is building the replacement for the 747 or the A340... Or Canadair is making the next 737... Or someone who isn't even on the radar is building the next DC-9 (can you say "Cessna"?).

The fact is, none of us knows, and none of us can know. It's nice to speculate, but that's all it is.



Those who fail to learn history are doomed to repeat it in summer school.
User currently offlineShenzhen From United States of America, joined Jun 2003, 1710 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (11 years 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 2445 times:

I reckon that between 2008 and 2012 Boeing and Airbus will basically split the market... say 400+/- airframes each. Maybe one year one will top the other, but the next the other one will.

Today they split the narrow body orders pretty evenly, the 777 dominates the A340 while the A330 dominates the 767. The A380 and 747 have no real competitors (one seats 430, the other 500 plus). If Boeing revamps the 747 with a simple stretch (450 passengers), new engines and systems, a common flt deck with the other wide bodies, then we could see additional 747 orders (not large) that might equal future A380 orders (they don't really compete, unless Airbus shrinks)


User currently offlineSrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (11 years 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 2339 times:

It really depends on how the airline industry goes in the next 6 years. If the industry is thriving again by 2005, you will see airlines ordering new a/c. The 7E7 will have a launch order by mid-2004, and the first deliveries will be happening by 2008, with the narrowbody sibling entering service in 2009. The Boeing a/c family in 2010 will consist of the following a/c:

717
737
7E7 (narrowbody)
7E7 (widebody)
777
747

Airbus will have the A380 into service for several years by this point (with the cargo version entering service two years prior), and the order book for the a/c will unofficially be closed. The A340 family will be the backbone of the long haul family, with the A340NG upgrades to all members of the family. The A330 will also see NG upgrades as well. The narrowbody family will be upgraded as well. Airbus' a/c offering will be the following:

A300-700 (strictly a cargo bird)
A319
A320
A321
A330
A340
A380

Embraer is the potential wild card in the Boeing/Airbus battle for market dominance. With the success of the 170/175/190/195, Embraer ups the ante with a/c that compete directly with the 737 and the A320, and takes away marketshare from both companies.

Bombardier will become the big loser by 2010. With no new product launch since the CRJ-900, Bombardier has been offering the same a/c for over a decade, only thing different is a handful of upgrades. They try to develop a 25 pax RJ, but no airline wants it.



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