Futureualpilot From United States of America, joined May 2000, 2593 posts, RR: 8 Posted (10 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 3727 times:
As we all know, the 741s and 742s served many airlines for 30+ years, and some continue to serve today. I was just wondering how long you think the 744 will serve with its operators, and what, if anything, will replace it.
AA777 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 2536 posts, RR: 29
Reply 1, posted (10 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 3638 times:
The 744's have been serving for....up to 15 years now I believe. So, the majority of them have quite a bit of time left on them before they start to get phased out. Alot of people predict that the A380 will be the next 744. I think that airlines will definitley invest alot in the A380, but not to the extent that they have the 744. Very few long haul flights need that kind of capacity, plus the frequency of flights will go down: something that passengers wont like (i.e. they have less options when flying--flight times etc). It looks like Boeing's biggest project has been the 7E7, and not any newer version of the 747. For now, a viable option is the 777-300, which can carry almost as many pax as the 744, (if not more?). Hope that answers some of your questions.
B4real From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 2607 posts, RR: 6
Reply 2, posted (10 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 3587 times:
I agree with AA777
I will be curious if the A380 will be as fast as the 747-400 series (someone may know the answer to that).
The 747-400, and more specifically the ER version, could feasibly be manufactured for another 10 years. That would put a potential retirement date of 2033! That would have to be a record for a series of an aircraft. Granted the 747-100 and 747-400ER are quite different!
I wonder how far the 777 program will go. Is a -400 or -500 out of the question? The 7E7 still has some discussion on placement.
If there would be a replacement, a 777 series - 777-XER would be the replacement - more pax, another 500 miles range from the 747-400 ER.
A 747-500 or 747-500ER sounds scary! Imagine a wing with two GE 90s or bigger on it!!! That would need to be a very strong wing!
CanadianNorth From Canada, joined Aug 2002, 3385 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (10 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 3445 times:
for now you have yer B777-300ER. The range is fairly close to that of the B744, aswell as the passenger loads are only about 30 passengers less (give or take some), so for range/pax the B777-300ER for now will make a decent replacement for the 744. I think that the 744 will be around for a while to come, but personally I think that Boeing's future will be with the B737NG, B7E7, and B777 lines.
The 747-400 has been in commercial service since 1989, so not quite 15 years. A good many of the original versions of the 747 were in operation for over thirty years, so I would expect the 747-400 to carry on for at least another fifteen years. There probably will be demand for a replacement of the -400 by about 2020.
I don't think that the Airbus A380 will be a huge sales success. It is too big for nearly all the routes that airlines fly today, it will likely be a gas-guzzler and expensive to operate. I hope that Boeing can make a success of the 7E7 and it should consider producing a large, four-engined version of the 7E7 for very long routes--e.g, New York-Sydney that has the same capacity as the 747-400 and the visual presence of the 747.
Cx flyboy From Hong Kong, joined Dec 1999, 6507 posts, RR: 56
Reply 11, posted (10 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 2646 times:
We plan to keep ours till they are 25 years old, which is quite a few years away. However it is highly likely that we will be announcing a joint venture plan to convert pax 744s to freighters soon, as was reported by Flight international a few weeks ago.