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Can AC Be Successful On The YYZ-DEL-YYZ Route?  
User currently offlineVimanav From India, joined Jul 2003, 1524 posts, RR: 14
Posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 6232 times:

First of all my apologies if this has been discussed earlier. But the more I look at AC's YYZ-DEL-YYZ non-stops the more I unsure I feel about its success. My thoughts are based on the following points:

1. A343 would have severe payload restrictions for this sector. KU operates the A343 KWI-JFK-KWI non-stop and loads are restricted to between 121 - 179 pax on this 280 seater with no cargo. True this is due to the high temperatures in KWI but DEL would also be equally hot in summers and the DEL-YYZ distance is roughly 1400kms more than KWI-JFK.

2. There just isn't enough traffic to justify 7/7 round the year even if we consider that they would be touting this as the fastest connection to the Far East with pax connecting ex DEL onto TG, SQ and UL to CMB.

3. Even for those who would like to use this connection to the Far East, why would they chose a hell hole of an airport like DEL (with its notoriously poor transit facilities) for transit when other options (even if a bit longer) are available.

On the flip side, the Canadian High Commission is supporting the operation to the hilt. They are even arranging transit visas free in a bid to secure the US traffic and route them over YYZ.

Views and feedback from you will be highly welcome.

rgds//Vimanav




Sarfaroshi kii tamannaa ab hamaare dil mein hai, Dekhnaa hai zor kitnaa baazu-e-qaatil mein hai
53 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16370 posts, RR: 56
Reply 1, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 6164 times:

The route does not surprize me, but the daily frequency does. You would think a 2x or 3x weekly service would suffice to begin with. It's also odd that they would focus only on YYZ-DEL and leave the YVR market untouched and the BOM market untouched. I think C3 had the best approach with 1 ot 2 weekly frequencies on YVR-DEL, YYZ-DEL, YYZ-BOM etc.




Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineGmonney From Canada, joined Jan 2001, 2159 posts, RR: 20
Reply 2, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 6105 times:

I know there has to be a lot of people that travel that route and more closely my boss has traveled it recently. He told me that from the time he got to the airport untill the time i picked him up it was 22 hours. Now that is a long time. The only thing that AC can do is offer ease and a shorter non stop flight. People are connecting a lot but whats that worth. I know my boss took LH to FRA, and then on to DEL. I just know that Cargo is very valuable and I know that AC could do wonders with cargo on that route....is there an aircraft that can do the trip (passenger) with a full payload, pax and cargo?

Does the A345/6 fall into this catagory or does the 772LR or a 773ER? What about the A380?

If the numbers were right, i am sure that this is a great route, but cargo is need to subsidise the expensive travel costs!!





Drive it like you stole it!
User currently offlineVimanav From India, joined Jul 2003, 1524 posts, RR: 14
Reply 3, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 6075 times:

In my opinion cargo is bound to suffer. Particularly in DEL summers when even a full complement of pax would not be possible either for the A343.

The ideal aircraft for this route IMHO would be the A345 or the B772LR.

rgds//Vimanav



Sarfaroshi kii tamannaa ab hamaare dil mein hai, Dekhnaa hai zor kitnaa baazu-e-qaatil mein hai
User currently offlineDebn From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 89 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 6063 times:

I guess the YYZ-DEL route will go over the north pole. But how does it enter india from the north? It will have go over Kashmir or pakistan or afghanistan, none of them is totally safe.

User currently offlineVimanav From India, joined Jul 2003, 1524 posts, RR: 14
Reply 5, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 6036 times:

The route will take it over Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir before coming into Indian airspace. I don't think it will overfly Afghanistan.

rgds//Vimanav



Sarfaroshi kii tamannaa ab hamaare dil mein hai, Dekhnaa hai zor kitnaa baazu-e-qaatil mein hai
User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 6, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 6023 times:

The A346 or 773ER could negotiate this route, but probably not at their maximum cargo yield.

The A345 or 772LR could probably fly the route full up.

N


User currently offlineB747-437B From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 6010 times:

The route will take it over Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir before coming into Indian airspace.

Actually, the route will take them N/NE from Toronto over Iqaluit in Nunavut, then over Greenland and the Arctic, hitting Europe near Murmansk in Russia and then south crossing Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and finally into India near Amritsar.

My source says they are using this routing because the fully loaded westbound flight will have ceiling restrictions in the Kashmir region if they went due north from Delhi. The A340 is not known as a particularly quick climber!  Smile

India is a very unique market in that it consistently commands a mean yield higher than the IATA average on most routes to/from the country but the standard deviation in yield is significantly smaller than the IATA average as well. North American carriers have traditionally struggled to deal with this market because their focus has tended to focus in the past on higher yields with only distressed/discretionary inventory significantly discounted. To be succesful in India requires a very different marketing and sales effort compared to most other regions.

India-North America can sustain sufficient traffic in its own right that connections to/from the rest of Asia become superfluous. The market has essentially infinite demand. The key to success is to capture enough of the market share at the right yield to make yourself succesful. That said, the flight is actually timed to connect nicely with the SriLankan service DEL-CMB that departs in the evenings from Delhi. Whereas a codeshare might be too much to ask, we can probably see a bunch of joint fares published with xxx-AC-YYZ-AC-DEL-UL-CMB routings once the flight gets on its legs. This could potentially be incredibly useful for the huge Sri Lankan Tamil population in Ontario who require expensive transit visas to get to Sri Lanka through Europe/USA.

Cargo will not be a major factor on this route alas. The underpowered A340 will not be able to carry significant enough payload over the distance to make it particularly lucrative. If AC is going to make a go of it, it will have to be done on passenger numbers alone.

Watching AC's marketing effort so far, I am not optimistic about their ability to make this flight work. They have taken the assinine step of marketing this flight virtually exclusively through the Indian travel agent network in North America who already have more lucrative and cheaper deals with other carriers. They have gone so far as to ZERO OUT published fares on some hitherto undersold flights to enable their consolidators to have maximum access to inventory. This, IMHO, is stupid and if they continue acting that way I will give them till February until they fall splat on their face.


User currently offlineAms From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 1692 posts, RR: 11
Reply 8, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 5964 times:

I think if most seats were F/C class it would make a profit, however most flights from North America stop either somewhere so they can drop/pick up passengers and refull the aircraft.

LHR is the number one stop for most traffic between North America and India, followed by FRA and CDG and AMS

Regards,
AMS


User currently offlineVimanav From India, joined Jul 2003, 1524 posts, RR: 14
Reply 9, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5904 times:

India is a very unique market in that it consistently commands a mean yield higher than the IATA average on most routes to/from the country but the standard deviation in yield is significantly smaller than the IATA average as well. North American carriers have traditionally struggled to deal with this market because their focus has tended to focus in the past on higher yields with only distressed/discretionary inventory significantly discounted.

B747-437B..

this was not very clear especially the bit about the standard deviation from yield being smaller than the IATA average and also your last sentence. Appreciate if you could elaborate on this.

Thanks//Vimanav



Sarfaroshi kii tamannaa ab hamaare dil mein hai, Dekhnaa hai zor kitnaa baazu-e-qaatil mein hai
User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16370 posts, RR: 56
Reply 10, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5894 times:

AC should be marketing this route heavily in the NYC, DTW, ORD, YVR and LAX markets to funnel NA feed to YYZ for the only nonstops to India. I agree with Sean that their marketing strategy seems flawed.




Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineB747-437B From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5857 times:

this was not very clear especially the bit about the standard deviation from yield being smaller than the IATA average and also your last sentence. Appreciate if you could elaborate on this

In most North American markets, you see passengers traveling on a wide range of fares within a given class of service. For example, some folks in Economy class may be on a $100 ticket while others may be on a $700 ticket. Thus the mean of these tickets is $400 but the standard deviation is $300.

However, in Indian markets you may see the same folks traveling on fares that are $300 and $500. To many observers, this may appear that the yields in India are lower than in North America. However, the mean of these fares is actually the same $400 but with a tighter standard deviation of only $100.

My point is that the markets are often considered equivalent because the mean is the same, but the difference in standard deviation is a very key marketing issue. You won't be able to sell seats at a top dollar $700 in India, just like you would never be able to make money with a bottom-feeder fare as high as $300 in North America. Many North American carriers are unable to deal with this dichotomy and hence mess up their Indian operations.


User currently offlineCanadaEH From Canada, joined Jul 2003, 1341 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5852 times:

I think that the two 340-500's that AC were supposed to have by now, which most of you know have been parked in France, has really thrown a wrench in Air Canada's plans here. I can see them cancelling this route days before the launch of it, a la YYZ - Beirut.


EH.
User currently offlineVimanav From India, joined Jul 2003, 1524 posts, RR: 14
Reply 13, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5831 times:

-437B...

Thanks for the detailed explanation. You are perfectly right in that.

CanadaEH..

that's a very interesting point you have raised - cancelling the ops at the last minute. Could some of our experts elaborate on the likelyhood of such a move?

rgds//Vimanav



Sarfaroshi kii tamannaa ab hamaare dil mein hai, Dekhnaa hai zor kitnaa baazu-e-qaatil mein hai
User currently offlineCayman From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 905 posts, RR: 9
Reply 14, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5812 times:

Are the A340-500s definitley NOT being delivered? Is it possible they will still take them (if) when they emerge from bankruptcy protection.

I also have a source who confirmed this route was added when they assumed they would have the -500s.

Anyone remember AC used to fly L1011-500s BOM (Bombay-Mumbai) and then on to SIN via LHR? That seemed to work for awhile did it not? I know that was awhile ago though. The 3 crew 1011s and the distance made it an expesnive route (they had 2 crews in transit etc)...


User currently offlineGamps From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 469 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 5740 times:

Air Canada advts are all over popular Indian websites, so I doubt if they are going to cancel at the last minute.

As of Sunday/2PM Pacific you can see the ad at www.sulekha.com with a URL redirect to http://www.aircanada.com/specials/india_us/

Interesting that crew will be Punjabi and Hindi speaking.

Cheers


User currently offlineCanadaEH From Canada, joined Jul 2003, 1341 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 5717 times:

CanadaEh The YYZ-BEY route ws actually YUL-FRA. The flight was cancelled a couple of days prior to start-up on the instruction of the govt. of Canada due to security reasons(this was widely reported). AC operated the flight 834/835 all summer, at the originally planned times, but had to terminate in FRA. There, they chartered a LH aircraft to get the pax the rest of the way.

I know it was due to security reasons, I just used the Beirut flights as an example.. you know, last minute cancellation. Just for clarification on my end, this Beirut flight operated from YUL-FRA-BEY(as a charter from LH?) and back?



EH.
User currently offlineBehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4852 posts, RR: 44
Reply 17, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 5665 times:

See one thing that is going for AC is that they are starting this route just a month before the peak winter holiday season hits India (Dec-Jan) so I can expect him to have high pax loads for the initial 3 month period.

However what should seriously be looked at are the pax loads between late Jan and late April which is a lean off season. How successful the new DEL nonstop route will prove to be, I feel will be judged on how much demand there is for seats from Feb-Apr. Then the peak season again hits from May to end August.

Another problem I see is that why would anyone want to fly 15-17 hours nonstop...isnt that a bit too much though I know SAA and CO fly such routes (HKG+ATL etc) but from my experience with the South Asian market, ppl cannot bear such long haul flights.

If I was an AC planner and someone tells me that I can fly a 343 nonstop from YYZ to DEL but with a 60-70% full plane (payload restriction) and no cargo, I would then immediately replan the routing of this route. 3

Personally speaking, I would advise AC to fly to DEL via MANCHESTER 4 times a week with A 343s or 74Ms preferably due to the extra cargo carrying capability which translates into extra $$$ for AC. And then another 3 times a week YVR-ICN-DEL with 74Ms too.

AC maybe going daily to DEL because of the competition it faces there from BA-KLM-AF-LH etc etc all offering daily B 744 / A 343(AF only) flights!!!


User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16370 posts, RR: 56
Reply 18, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 5608 times:

Another factor involved in adding this route is perhaps the need to simply utilize 2 surplus 343's. If AC is locked into leases, this route may be the best of all alternatives (including parking the aircraft).




Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineGmonney From Canada, joined Jan 2001, 2159 posts, RR: 20
Reply 19, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 5579 times:

No that i know anything, but i am pretty sure that the aircraft that are sitting on the ground are the power by the hour ones. So they don't have to be in the air....the ones in the air a lot of the time are the leased ones!

Another problem I see is that why would anyone want to fly 15-17 hours nonstop

Well I think that if they could shave waiting in a terminal for 3-5 hours and the chance that they might miss a connection....that might be attractive.

I still can't get over this cargo deal, I am sure that India exports a lot in the way of fabrics. I know that there are a lot of shirt manufactures there, most of our shirts are "made in India" this year we had upwards of 500 shirts on the floor and atleast 60% were from india or the middle east?



Drive it like you stole it!
User currently offlineCessnapimp From Canada, joined Oct 2001, 1320 posts, RR: 19
Reply 20, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 5556 times:

Indeed, Air Canada is locked into a lot of things. Union contract restrictions, bankruptcy judges...
...with their every move being observed by the financial community.

On the demographics side, I believe that the strong Indian community around the Greater Toronto area will suffice to provide AC with ample load factors. And speaking of which:

Innocent question:

Since when has it become unfashionable and impractical to do a "technical stop" along the way? Someone mentioned profitability with cargo along that route. I couldn't agree more. I believe AC should fly this route including a technical stop along the way to refuel. On the flip side ,the consequence of this would be:

1- The plane is going to be crewed to the max with all the union rules about duty day requirements.

2- Pax may not enjoy a refuelling err.. a technical stop.

Given this is a really... really long flight, and the alternatives to flying AC YYZ to DEL right now, I don't think pax would mind a one hour stop along the way. As for the extra crewmembers, methinks the precious cargo will more than make up for that expense.

I say stop along the way. Unless they're getting the 345's. That would not astonish me either since AC and Airbus have been old friends since the 320 deal and the fact that Airbus seems often to be the airplane manufacturer equivalent of the "NO CREDIT? NO PROBLEM!" from spam mail I get all the time...

[Edited 2003-10-06 03:34:07]

User currently offlineCanadaEH From Canada, joined Jul 2003, 1341 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 5548 times:

Only recently have I heard about this power-by-the-hour deal. Do you know if Air Canada has such an agreement? Most of the aircraft that are parked now are ones that are either being sent to the desert or returned to the lessors. There are obviously backup aircraft sitting around as most airlines have at least a few. Westjet has 43+ aircraft, with at least 3 spares parked in any given day, so I can only imagine what an airline the size of Air Canada has for backups.


EH.
User currently offlineGmonney From Canada, joined Jan 2001, 2159 posts, RR: 20
Reply 22, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 5537 times:

Couldn't agree with you more Pimp!

AC needs the A345's, i think that if they tried to fly the 343's they would see that they can make money. I see all of these other airlines flying pretty big aircraft, if we only had the number of people connecting onto India, we could properly evaluate this argument!

Grant



Drive it like you stole it!
User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16370 posts, RR: 56
Reply 23, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 5532 times:

Power-by-the-hour has been around for decades. It's usually offered by leasing companies who are having a hard time placing their aircraft, such as nowadays. When the industry is booming, these offers are less common.




Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineACB777 From Canada, joined Sep 2003, 350 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (11 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 5481 times:

Maybe AC should get a long range boeing 777-200ER/200LR to fly to India. For half the week, it can fly to YYZ to DEL, and for the other half of the week it could fly from YVR-DEL. This would be perfect because the 777 doesn't have a low climb, unlike the Airbus A340, and all flights would be full and profitable because the 777 could probably handle cargo. However, I doubt this will ever happen...

25 Gmonney : That would make sense, but that crew thing is intersting that the cessnapimp mentioned, what are the crew rest area's like? I guess the aircraft could
26 Post contains images Yyz717 : I'd love to see an AC 777 but it ain't gonna happen. The 345 can do everything the 777 can, and will have commonality with the 343 fleet.
27 Post contains links Gmonney : Yes you are right Yyz717 i got these stats though.... 772LR: With no extra tanks (full cargo): 8,195 nm With one extra 1,850 gal. tank: 8,521 nm With
28 Lymanm : "This would be perfect because the 777 doesn't have a low climb, unlike the Airbus A340" Uhm, I have my doubts that "low climb" performance would fact
29 Vimanav : The B772LR is not due to hit the market for another couple of years. When it does, it would have the legs to do a DEL-YYZ non-stop which is approx. 11
30 Cayman : If cargo is a consideration, wouldn't the 74E be well suited on the YYZ-DEL? About the same number of pax as the 343 on this route with the added carg
31 Ammunition : USD851 is about the price of an air india/british airways flight to delhi from london return. Could it be an introductory offer... if they carry on li
32 Lymanm : While I'm not sure about the standard 747-400 or 74E, AC's combi's are, in fact, dogs. When they were ordered, AC was required by Ottawa to order bulk
33 Gigneil : These 772's are just 763's on steriods right? Lots more power and a few more seats? Or are they the size of the 764? I'm not sure I understand what yo
34 Cayman : Lymanm, that is facinating about Ottawa's requirements! Doesn't surprise me, I know AC are in some ways authors of their troubles BUT the federal gove
35 Donder10 : I regularly see the 346 take off for NRT from LHR and it's climb is quite similar to that of the 744.The 345's climb will be even more impressive than
36 Behramjee : ACs fares ex YYZ to DEL return are being sold on ACs website for CAN $ 1625 + tax so approx CAN $ 1700-1730 range which is IND RS 50,000+ AC maybe cha
37 Gigneil : The 345 and 346 have twin-like thrust/weight numbers. They'll have no problem clearing whatever you like. But it seems pretty clear that AC will op th
38 ConcordeBoy : While the 772LR will be designed to be faster, more powerful, and longer ranged than the A345.... it's stifled by an important factor here: The 777 (n
39 Gmonney : All this means is that if AC does get out of this alive and the A345's are still avialable, then i am sure this will be a profitable route. AC has a l
40 Airbus Lover : Concorde, I am sure you don't have to use the word pathetic. Why can't you just say the A340, is it so hard not to include any negative comments when
41 Gigneil : While the 772LR will be designed to be faster This is just a randomly made up factoid. whereas the rather pathetic A340 can. Seriously. Comments like
42 StarAC17 : The 777 (nor any twinjet for that matter) cannot overfly the western Himalayas, whereas the rather pathetic A340 can. Can someone please explain why a
43 Gmonney : I think its simmilar to the ETOPS stuff over water, the aircraft has to be a certian distance from an airport or land, something like that Grant
44 B747-437B : Can someone please explain why a twinjet can't fly over the western Himalayas and a 4 engine jet can. A twinjet is not certified to maintain sufficien
45 Yyz717 : Can AC Be Successful On The YYZ-DEL-YYZ Route?" I thnk we have answered this question, YES they can with the A345! Operationally, yes. Profitable....p
46 Post contains images ConcordeBoy : This is just a randomly made up factoid. Here on planet Earth, it's well known that 777s are a good bit more swift in flight than their A340 competito
47 Gamps : Ok, according to the wires, AC says they plan to have 230 seats per flight and claim that inbound flights to India are already heavily booked. Cheers
48 Gigneil : If they're going to put on 230 passengers, we've drastically underestimated the A340-300s ability to fly this route. N
49 FLYYUL : AC 51 is very heavy for the next month AC52 is absolutely dead, this for the next few weeks at least. We are speaking of loads under 100 pax etc. But
50 VonRichtofen : Perhaps AC should have marketed this a bit in YYC. YYC has a decent sized Indian population with money to travel. I have a few Indian friends who fly
51 Lfutia : Maybe UA will consider re-starting svc to India. I also hope that UA will place its code on the AC flight. Best of luck to AC. Leo/ORD
52 Behramjee : According to THE HINDU Indian Newspaper, a passenger from KARACHI-PAKISTAN has booked himself to be on the inaugural DEL-YYZ AC A 343 flight in mid OC
53 Behramjee : ACs A 343s carry 284 pax in a 2 class configuration so therefore they have to have 54 seats empty on all their DEL flights...personally speaking thats
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