PanAmerican From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 384 posts, RR: 5 Posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 2425 times:
Hi,
I have been wondering whether demand on USA-Germany flights has either decreased or stayed stable instead of the proposed growth that everybody is expecting of the aviation industry.
The time frame I'm talking about is roughly the last 10 to 15 years.
When thinking about it and comparing schedules and routes, I am almost positive that there was a higher number of scheduled flights operating nonstop between the two countries from and to (TXL/MUC/CGN/HAM/STR) more cities on bigger equipment (tons of 747s) than there is today.
The reasons might be:
- reduction of US Armed Forces Personnel in Germany from 200,000 in 1975 to 70,000 today.
-more passengers connecting through CDG, LHR and AMS enroute.
-more charter flights?
-downfall of Pan Am and TWA, thus lack of feeder traffic from European routes. (See my other thread about that: http://www.airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.main/1222094/ I am still highly impressed with that route network PA and TW had in Europe!)
The selection of flights to pick from for customers definetely seemed higher back then. Maybe it would be helpful to know what group mostly travelled between the two countries (tourists,business,military?). How was the percentage on the flights back then and how is it today?
Is this just my perception (I did not do a count on flights per week then and now!) or could this really be a fact? There's gotta be a reason why we don't see any airline fly e.g. NYC-Berlin, like Pan Am did for years, or HAM/DUS-NYC like LH did for years.
I'd like to hear your thoughts on this. Also, if anybody has specific numbers, i.e. flights per week, seats per week and transatlantic passenger number from the US to Germany please let me know.
Snoopy From Switzerland, joined Oct 2001, 370 posts, RR: 0 Reply 1, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 2350 times:
Hi
Well, the decline of US forces in Germany certainly had an effect on air traffic between Germany and the US, but the fall of the Berlin Wall also almost certainly had a major effect on Pan Am's fortunes in Europe. Pan Am virtually had a monopoly to Berlin from most large German cities until the Wall fell, and this was a lot of traffic. I think there were about 5 or 6 flights daily out of Munich alone to Berlin.
Of course, if you were flying to one of the major US cities and could fly direct with Lufthansa, that was certainly a lot more convenient than taking say TWA via Paris, which was one of TWA's main hubs. Also, the younger US carriers entered the market with direct flights to the US (Delta and American) and while they were flying direct across the pond with relatively new aircraft, TWA pax were being ferried up to Paris in a relatively old B727 and then having to face the famous French customer service while they transferred onto the transatlantic portion. The amount of complaints I had about my colleagues in Paris....well, the less said the better.
But, one thing I will say, despite the old equipment and the comments that people make about the service, TWA's international division was a great place to work. Not because of the conditions or anything, but because of the cameraderie and the team-spirit. It was a real sad day the day I decided to leave, but I could see the end of the line approaching fast and had a great offer elsewhere, so....
To add to some of the stories I told on the other thread: we were shortstaffed one day and I was given the honour of seeing off the aircraft. It was in mid-summer and the flight was full. The passengers had finished boarding and I was just waiting for the paperwork to be finished before they closed up. I noticed a guy standing in the aisle talking to a F/A and asked what the problem was. He had a duplicate seat assignment. As I said, the flight was absolutely full. Further down the plane I saw a lady with a relatively small child (entitled to a seat though, so no problem there). I went over and asked her if she would mind taking her child on her lap as far as Paris and I would see that she was upgraded to business class to Boston. I have never seen a child moved so quick in my life! Anyway, the guy got his seat and the woman and child their upgrade. But when I got back to the ticket office I was told there was a problem: we had 114 ticket stubs and the plane only had 113 seats! I said what had happened. At the time I was relatively new at the station manager's job and I was told in no uncertain terms by my staff that this was totally illegal...oh well. It was my good turn for the day and I had three very happy passengers....
Godbless From Sweden, joined Apr 2000, 2751 posts, RR: 18 Reply 2, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 2285 times:
I have no numbers or anything but I guess that the air travel between the US and Germany is just a little more organized than it used to be.
Lufthansa for example flew to NY from FRA, MUC, DUS, CGN and HAM (I think it was from those airports...) but not in frequencies known today. Now you can fly FRA-JFK/EWR, DUS-EWR, MUC-JFK/EWR daily (BBJ flights 6 times a week) with connections from every German and many European airports while the other flights from say CGN or HAM to NY were served on routes like FRA-CGN-HAM-JFK but only two times a week or so.
From this I would say that options of getting to the US are way better today using the main hubs (FRA and MUC) but of course this does not say anything about numbers of passengers using these options.
How long have American Airlines, United Airlines, US Airways, Continental and Northwest been serving Germany?
ZSSNC From Germany, joined Feb 2003, 428 posts, RR: 10 Reply 3, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 2203 times:
I just had a look at the DOT homepage and did a bit of research. Unfortunately the statistics I found are not comparable, as in 1990 (the earliest statistic they have online) they do not include the German carriers in their statistic.
In January 1990 a total of 239538 seats were offered by US carriers between the US and Germany. In January 2002 a total of 566913 seats were offered by all carriers flying that route in between Germany and the US. Assuming that the market share of the US carriers was higher or not much less than 50 % in 1990 there would be actually an increase in traffic between Germany and the US.
I personally also doubt that there was any decrease in traffic between those two countries. It was only in the early 90s that air travel became affordable for many Germans (due to the lack of other data let me make following comparison: taking the buying power at the respective time into account the fare for a return flight Frankfurt-Johannesburg has decreased by 85,7 % since 1953 . And people actually complain that fares to Africa are too high...!)
ZSSNC
Airbus A340-600 - the longest temptation in the sky
Fly-K From Germany, joined May 2000, 3120 posts, RR: 53 Reply 5, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 2113 times:
LH traffic to the US has more than doubled in the last decade (but a good part of the growth is from connecting traffic beyond Germany and thanks to the alliance with UA).
I don't know how many flights PanAm and TWA used to have from FRA, but I don't think it was more than today with UA (5), DL (5), US (3), AA (2), CO (1) and NW (1), although today's aircraft are smaller. In addition, AC has 4 daily flights in summer.
Konstantin
Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you have been...
Snoopy From Switzerland, joined Oct 2001, 370 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (9 years 7 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 1893 times:
"Well, the decline of US forces in Germany certainly had an effect on air traffic between Germany and the US"
I don't think I expressed myself too well....
Actually the other posters are certainly right when they talk about traffic between the US and Germany not decreasing in absolute terms. It has certainly increased I would say.
However, the military traffic (not just in terms of passengers, but also in terms of mail - very lucrative) affected a guaranteed baseload that US carriers had out of Germany. I know for instance that military mail had to be shipped via the most direct routing and that meant that out of Munich, most of that mail went to Delta and American (and Pan Am when they operated direct) rather than TWA because of the change of gauge in Paris CDG.
Also, I think that as one one of the previous posters mentioned, the air routes have become better organised. There was a rush to get into Berlin after the wall came down and yet how many direct (even 1-stop) flights are there today from Berlin to the US? I'm not sure that there are any. American made a big song and dance of going into STR and pulled out about three months later.
PanAmerican From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 384 posts, RR: 5 Reply 7, posted (9 years 7 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 1844 times:
...Very interesting replies indeed! Just for the fun of it, I have just counted the number of flights between Germany and the US for the currently flown schedule (source was LH online timetable).
There are 350 scheduled flights a week from the US to Germany.
266 go to FRA (76%), 63 to MUC (18%), 14 to DL), Germany">DUS (4%) and 7 to STR (2%).
1. Lufthansa sends 203 flights (58%) a week over the pond:
-91xA343, 56xB744, 21xA332, 14xB763, 14xA319CJ, 7xA342, 7x737BBJ
2. United is second largest with 42 flights (12%) :
-35xB772, 7xB763
3. Delta is third, also 42 flights (12%) but offers less seats:
-35xB763, 7xB772
4. US Airways has 28 flights (8%) :
-14xA333, 14xB762
5. American Airlines only has 14 flights (4%) :
-14xB772
6. Singapore Airlines has a daily to JFK (2%) :
-7xB744
7. Northwest Airlines has a daily to DTW (2%) :
-7xDC10
8. Continental Airlines has a daily to EWR (2%) :
-7xB762
This makes 91xA343 (25%), 56xB744 (16%), 56xB772 (16%), 56xB763 (16%), 21xA332 (6%), 21xB762 (6%), 14xA319 (4%), 7xA342 (2%), 7xB737 (2%)
Now, if anyone could come up with the figures for 1988 or something that'd be wonderful.
However, it really doesn't seem like there were more than 350 flights back then but most likely more 747s.... The DOT numbers are interesting, too bad there is no way to compare them.
Note that this has only changed very recently. With all the new destinations that LH is serving now, it is no wonder. Until a two or three years ago they did not serve FRA-PDX/DEN/PHX/DTW/PHL/IAH and MUC-LAX/SFO/BOS/EWR/MIA/ORD were also not on the list.... Plus they added frequencies to LAX/BOS/IAD/ORD.
Seems like they have advanced quite a bit in US traffic.
In the meantime there have been a number of routes flown by US carriers that do not exist anymore:
MIA-FRA on AA
CO / KMCO), USA - Florida">MCO-FRA on DL
BOS-FRA on NW
BOS-FRA on US
ORD-DL), Germany">DUS on AA and I think UA tried as well
ATL-HAM on DL
EWR-MUC on CO
JFK-MUC on DL
...and many more.
So there are quite a few routes that used to be served.
Though that does not mean traffic decreased, it certainly shows that US airlines have had a harder time getting established on this market after 1991.
Well, lets wait and see who else will post here to clear this up.
Snoopy: Strangely enough there seems to be very low demand
for nonstop flights to Berlin from the US. Last airline that tried was LH on TXL-IAD but had to cancel it soon after...
I think it was Delta that advertised flying to Stuttgart. They had ATL-STR and JFK-STR on B763s. Now they have only the Atlanta run left.
Godbless From Sweden, joined Apr 2000, 2751 posts, RR: 18 Reply 8, posted (9 years 7 months 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 1811 times:
PanAmerican,
very good work you've done there. But a little correction must be made. Lufthansa only operates 6 flights with the BBJ and 12 with the ACJ, as all destinations are served six times a week and not seven.
How do the DL flights add up to 35 767? As much as I know there are 14 a week to FRA (CVG and ATL) and 7 to MUC (ATL) and 7 to STR (ATL) making 28. So I guess the missing flights all go to MUC. Are those CVG flights? They no longer serve MUC from NY, or has that changed?
Does anybody know about the proposed MUC-CLT/PIT flights?
LH is really expanding their US network! As mentioned before, three or four years ago it was not very attractive with only BOS/NYC/LAX/SFO/IAD/MIA/ATL/ORD being served. Those times seem to be over.
When will NW fly the A333 to FRA?
All right, hope someone will still give us info on transatlantic flights in the 80's/90's as I cannot recall many details except for the following:
FRA-JFK had two daily PA 747's at least and TWA was also flying a daily 747.
FRA-IAD was a daily PA 747 as well
FRA-MIA had 10 747's a week.
FRA-LAX was also flown by PA 747's, I'm not sure if they also served SFO, BOS and ORD nonstop....
FRA-STL had a TWA L1011 that continued to SEA?
HAM/TXL-JFK was a daily PA A310 that was sometimes routed via AMS.
MUC-JFK was a daily PA 747 in good times and an A310 in bad times.
Well, that's all I remember by heart.
Let's wait and see
See you around,
From 1969 onward TWA was actually the #1 transatlantic carrier in terms of
passengers, though I think Pan Am carried more in 1983 or 1985 and 1990. Anyway
just to give you an idea of how big TWA was still in 1990 here are some facts.
TWA was the number 1 carrier on
Baltimore-London
Boston-Paris
New York-Barcelona
New York-Copenhagen
New York-Lisbon
New York-Madrid
New York-Oslo
New York-Paris
St. Louis-London
St. Louis-Paris
Washington-Paris.
As late as 1996, although they had given up their LHR routes, TWA was still a
major transatlantic carrier being number one on:
Boston-Paris
New York-Athens
New York-Barcelona
New York-Lisbon
New York-Madrid
New York-Milan
St. Louis-London
St. Louis-Paris
Very interesting indeed, thanx Paul!
This means for this topic:
-29x747 and 21xA310 flown by PA and TW between the US and Germany
in 1990.
This had already reduced to 23x747 and 9xA310 in 1991.
I am surprised and believe that those numbers are very low, maybe it was a Gulf War impact?
DETA737 From Portugal, joined Oct 2000, 596 posts, RR: 0 Reply 12, posted (9 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 1558 times:
Hi,
To answer PanAmerican, yes the reduced number of flights has to do with the Gulf War as well as the recession. Demand went down significantly. Also both Pan Am and TWA were hurting. Pan Am especially seemed to be reschuffling their routes throughout 1990 and 1991 in a desperate attempt to make them profitable. They added a ton of cities and dropped some. TWA was a bit more stable.
I think that demand to Germany may not necessarily have gone down but the reduction of flights on U.S. carriers to Germany is part of a greater overall trend that began in the early 1990s.
Liberalisation of international traffic in the 1990s culminated with an open skies treaty between Germany and the USA. Bilateral open skies treaties were also signed with other countries. This meant more competition on the North Atlantic for instance Singapore Airlines began flying JFK-FRA-SIN and was able to carry passangers between JFK and FRA.
Also the advent of global alliances meant that airlines no longer had to fly to as many destinations as they used to. For instance in 1990 TWA offered service to Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich and Stuttgart. However nowadays a carrier such as Delta can offer its passengers even more cities in Germany by codesharing with Air France. So say you're flying from a city like Little Rock to Nuremberg. You can fly Delta LIT-ATL and either Delta or Air France on the ATL-CDG segement and Air France CDG-NUE. Although you're changing planes, both carriers make money without having to fly half empty 727s around Europe. So basically now the trend is to have the U.S. carriers carry passengers from their fortress hubs to the hubs of their partners in Europe and disperse them to their final destinations.
Some also wonder why European carriers can fill a 747 on routes that U.S. carriers will fly a 767 on, such as Lufthansa JFK-FRA vs Delta JFK-FRA. Simply put European carriers have hubs such as FRA, AMS and CDG offering connecting services to cities in Africa, the Middle East, India etc. A passenger flying JFK-FRA on Delta most likely is and O&D passenger, if they want connections they will fly through the Skyteam hub at CDG. Many European carriers also have a better reputation than American carriers, and therefore when fares are offered at simmilar prices, Americans themselves will travel on European carriers. The pendulum has definately swung in the direction of the European airlines since 1991, before then Pan Am and TWA were the largest Transatlantic carriers. Now that distinction is held by British Airways.
DETA737 From Portugal, joined Oct 2000, 596 posts, RR: 0 Reply 13, posted (9 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 1541 times:
I decided to do a comparison of weekly non-stop flights between the United States and Germany by U.S. carriers during two dates: July of 1990 and of 2001. I chose July because its the peak of the summer season when carriers have offer the greatest number of scheduled flights to Europe. I chose 1990 because it was just before the Gulf War and 2001 because it was just before September 11, the recession and the war when air traffic went down dramatically. In fact U.S. carriers offered more flights by 2001. In 1990 there were 134 weekly non-stops while by 2001 there were 168. The difference was that United Airlines replaced Pan Am as the lead American carrier to Germany and that more flights out of hubs than out of JFK.
July of 1990
American Airlines
DFW-FRA 7x 763
ORD-DUS 7x 762
ORD-FRA 7x 763
ORD-MUC 7x 762
MAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 31117 posts, RR: 74 Reply 14, posted (9 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 1511 times:
In addition to flying from JFK to various German cities, in the early 1990s, Lufthansa flew from Miami to four cities: Frankfurt, Munich, Dusseldorf, and Hamburg.
PanAmerican From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 384 posts, RR: 5 Reply 15, posted (9 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 1451 times:
Conclusion:
In 1990 there were 7 US carriers flying 29x747, 14xD10, 32xL10, 28x762, 21x310 and 14x763 between the two countries....that makes 138 weekly flights.
In 2003 there were 6 US carriers flying 56x772, 42x763, 14x330, 14x762 and 7xD10 between the two countries.... that makes 140 weekly flights.
While the market share for US carriers has probably decreaed on this market, LH has picked up a great deal of new routes and has dramatically increased their market share to 58% of the flights!
This was great to know. Thanks for posting everybody!
Thestooges From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 16, posted (9 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 1386 times:
Could anyone please shine some light on why there actually are no flights between Berlin and the US. Berlin is a large city with more than four million people. A friend on mine from Dresden was complaining how she had to change planes in London for four hours in order to get to NY from Berlin. Budapest, Prague and Warsaw all have direct flights to North America all served by their national carrier. I guess establishment of a route would be up to Lufthansa, but thats already come and gone. So whats the deal, European cities with a fifth of the population of Berlin have more flights to North America. Why is there no demand, when I was there recently I thought that would be a good market for a start up airline, or at least maybe for Delta to serve from JFK or Continental from EWR. Berlin is quickly becoming a big tourist destination especially with close proximity to Prague and Eastern Europe. However I think its mainly backpackers on a two week twenty stop European tour that are discovering it and they could fly into Paris, London, Amsterdam or Frankfurt for much cheaper. But then what about the resident population, Texel is looking pretty packed these days. My guess is that flying LH through FRA, AF through CDG, KL through AMS and BA through LHR to North America or anywhere long distance for that matter is more than enough for Berlin.
PanAmerican From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 384 posts, RR: 5 Reply 17, posted (9 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 1359 times:
Thestooges, the Berlin market is highly strange indeed.
Lufthansa doesn't serve the US from Berlin (TXL-IAD turned out to have little traffic in F&C) and on top of that they don't even fly to London from Berlin plus they only have three rediculous little CRJ flights a day to Paris!
Berlin used to have some of the rarest and weirdest connections worldwide until a few years ago (Air Koryo, MIAT Mongloian Airlines, ...) and yet that city does not have enough demand to justify a daily transatlantic flight!
That really makes me wonder what on earth is going on there?
You are right, places like BHX, MAN, WAW, STR all have flights to the US, to London and to Paris, however not so Berlin.
Airbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 6873 posts, RR: 7 Reply 19, posted (9 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 1315 times:
What large businesses do you have in Berlin? Answer that and you might find out why there's no demand for a flights to/from Berlin. Also, American leisure travelers don't exactly think of former East Germany as a great place to go on vacation.
Thestooges From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 20, posted (9 years 7 months 1 week 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 1260 times:
I still think a TXL to JFK or EWR flight would stand a chance, as the above posts state Pan Am flew an A310 four times a week to JFK in 1991. I would think that Lufthansa could fly an A340 4 to 7 times a week to New York. I think this would be much better than a D.C flight, Im not surprised it didnt last long. I think Delta could have a flight into JFK or Continental into EWR. You would get quite few O and D passengers as well those who would connect through to the rest of the US and Canada.
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From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 384 posts, 
I am still highly impressed with that route network PA and TW had in Europe!)
PA
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From Sweden, joined Apr 2000, 2751 posts, 
. And people actually complain that fares to Africa are too high...!)
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