Delta777Jet From Germany, joined Jun 2000, 1413 posts, RR: 2 Posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 10382 times:
What do you think will be the next US Airline to enter Chapter 11?
Will United exit Chapter 11 and how long do they still have to exit Chapter 11?
Is Air Canada going to exit the Canadian Chapter 11???
Workbench From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 10266 times:
1. American - Late 2004
2. American - Late 2004
3. American - Late 2004
4. American - Late 2004
5. American - Late 2004
UA will exit in Mid 2004. The US Airline industry really needs a big boy to go out of business for the rest of the industry to recover. It may as well be the bigest predator that has forced so many other airlines out of business.
StevenUhl777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 9964 times:
American? What is this based upon? What would be the "nails in the coffin" that would bring this about?
My bet is US, for the following reasons:
- Still losing money after emerging from Ch. 11..meaning their restructuring efforts failed...there were still more cuts to be made and they didn't make them. UA on the other hand is posting operational profits while still in Ch. 11...meaning the core business is profitable again. Only reason for the net loss were the "special items" related to bankruptcy, and those go away once you're out.
- Facing increased competition in two key hubs, one being SWA. What will their counteroffensive be?
- What will they have to do to cut costs further to stop losing money? More employee wage concessions? Lots of luck...
- United will reemerge, and it's probably going to be either March 31st or June 30th of 2004.
- Air Canada is supposed to emerge I believe 12/2003...they just got an extension for protection, but that was only for two months.
Mlsrar From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 1417 posts, RR: 8
Reply 10, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 9822 times:
Midwest received a significant financial aid package from Milwaukee and Racine counties. Coupled with voluntary wage concessions, and Milwaukee county lifting the property tax on aircraft, YX should be able to remain out of bankruptcy.
Hoeksma was very frank with the employees, told them what restructuring was necessary to survive, and they agreed. It was inspiring.
My .02 would be Delta, but their ability to stay out of B-court is a function of Song's success.
I mean, for the right price I’ll fight a lion. - Mike Tyson
TWFirst From Vatican City, joined Apr 2000, 6346 posts, RR: 51
Reply 11, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 9799 times:
>>On NWA... Not totally sure why, but they are.<<
Here's why I think they're doing so well (comparitively):
1) Great hubs/route structure. The new WorldGateway at DTW and the revamped MSP are fabulous airports, and even though the facilities at MEM are not in the same category, it's still a great airport to connect at, and NW is managing the seats out of there quite nicely, which leads me to:
2) Great management.
3) All the investment they made into technology the past few years is paying off. By far the most technologically advanced of the majors... on-line check ins, airport kiosks, internet bookings, are way ahead of their competitors.
Ex_SQer From United States of America, joined Apr 2002, 1436 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 9731 times:
I just want to correct one misconception here. It isn't always profits (or lack thereof) that leads companies to declare backruptcy - more often than not it is one's ability to pay the bills that leads to declaration of bankruptcy. Theoretically, a firm can make an accounting profit, yet not have enough cash flow to pay the bills, leading to BK. On the flip side, a firm could be making losses because of noncash expenses, but still have enough cash flow to pay the bills and hence avoid BK.
AA7573E From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 475 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 9644 times:
I would like to know what the anti AA sentiment out here is based on? They have led the charge in employee concessions, pioneered the rolling hub concept, cut fat out their route system, consolidated aircraft families, delayed delivery of new equipment, renegotiated real estate and aircraft leases, obtained competitive long term financing, reduced capacity in unprofitable markets, cut service in terrible markets and continue to add targeted service on a strategic and tactical basis. What part of that makes you think they are headed to Chapter 11? Seriously, if you don't like the airline that is great, but I would love to see some backing for your assertion that by this time next year, the carrier with the most aggressive stance on cost cutting and restructuring will be in chapter 11. And just to be consistent with the facts, AMR posted third quarter operating profits of $165 million, and net earnings of $1 million.
My guess is that in the next 12 months, if anyone is going anywhere, it will be US. They are going to take it on the chin in PHL. Anyway you frame that, it will hurt the airline. Their bloated east coast route structure is on tenuous ground from LCC competition, and the simple fact that a majority of their routes are easily driven in a reasonable time, by PAX that are afraid to fly, weary of the new airport experience or simply unable to afford airfare. In addition, they HAVE to upgrade their longhaul fleet. It has been well documented on this and other sites, that their 767s are in shambles, and not a nice ride. Sooner rather than later, they are going to need to invest a lot of money to replace them, and that will hurt. Simply put, I don't think that US has the ability, given the deck they have, to call any bets, or take any gambles. They are most at risk of all the majors, and it seems that their first attempt to fix things was not as comprehensive or successful as it was supposed to be. Lastly, I have nothing to base this on, but I still think they have too much capacity in the air. I have taken 8 round trips on US this year, and every single flight had more empty seats than filled seats. I know this is just a micro slice, but in my impression, they have too much capacity in the market.
How is NWA more advanced than any other major. They all have internet check in, they all have kiosks, they all have online booking. The technology is the same, I don't see how you distinguish between NWA, DL, AA or any other major - or LCC for that fact. They are all on equal ground when it comes to technology available to the consumers.
RiverVisualNYC From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 930 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 9581 times:
The definition of bankruptcy is not losing money as such, but having liabilities that exceed your assets. A company can be showing a paper profit each quarter, but to know how it's really doing you also have to look at the balance sheet. In this regard I don't know who is vulnerable, I hope they can all make it, but I think the public, with its short attention span, thinks the industry is back to business as usual. If someone significant had to stop flying I think it would be a major shock to the traveling public (anyone remember PA or EA?) and possibly even enough to make us question the economic recovery that is supposedly happening.
Fjnovak1 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 615 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 9497 times:
Another reason Northwest profits even in quarters that other cartel carriers do not are those 160+ venerable DC-9s and, to a lesser degree, the 20 or so DC-10s and the handful of 747-200s. 85 or 90% of these aircraft are fully purchased and paid off (i thought i read somewhere that a dozen or so DC-9s and some of the 747-200s were leased). Back in the early to mid '90s when Northwest was in dire straits and just out of Ch. 11 itself management made the seemingly unpopular decision to retrofit the tired-looking cabin interiors of the 1960s and 1970s era DC-9 fleet rather than place a large order for new aircraft. They did place the airbus orders to replace the large 727 fleet and for expansion purposes, but lots of money was spent as well on new interiors for the 165 or so DC-9s, the 747-200 fleet, and half of the 757-200 fleet which now is 15-20 years old themselves.
Compile that with the fact that, while older planes can be more costly to maintain, Northwest's DC-9s are beautifully maintained, and have the highest dispatch rate of any aircraft in the fleet. As it is frequently mentioned, pilots at Northwest joke that when the final A319 is ferried out to Mojave, its crew will ride back to Detroit in a red-tailed DC-9.
Because whenever a Northwest -9 lifts off it signals almost pure profit, NW is able to run their DC-9s on routes other cartel carriers would have CRJs and ERJs on. Detroit-Traverse City, Minneapolis-Grand Forks, Minneapolis-Rochester, MN, Memphis-Ft. Walton Beach/Valpairaiso, FL...all these routes have at least a couple DC-9 turns daily. One must think that CO, a great airline in of itself, would have nothing to do with these cities from their hubs if it wasn't for the ERJ.
So, for a laymen that doesn't know one aircraft from another besides maybe seating arrangements, the Northwest -9 looks the same to them as would an Airtran B717 (interiors are quite similar, indeed). Fact is a Northwest DC-9, 37 years old, makes US Airways 737-300s look like planes from a 3rd world carrier. Some of the DC-9s look better on the interior than the earliest NW A320s.
And for the business traveler who prefers a mainline aircraft to a regional jet or turboprop, the DC-9 fits that bill too. I'd say if it was not for that plane, Northwest might not be so successful.
Notice I do not say the same for the DC-10 and 747-200. I've never been on the 747-200 so I cannot speak on it but it appears that travelers have spoken and they want something newer on premium routes and NW listened and now we see them getting new A330s. Apparently the 747-200 are to be short-lived also, relegating the DC-10s eventually to Hawaii and Beach Market routes, where they are a great fit and likely will make NW more money.
On the risk of sounding like a die-hard Northwest coddler, let me preface this with two things: 1) at least NW doesn't start stupid sounding LCCs like "TED" and 2) NW is not always great, my mother was delayed for 6 hours in New York b/c of them cancelling flights ex- GA / KLGA), USA - New York">LGA and EWR for "weather delays" (thing is, CO was running on time to DTW, her destination, which puzzled me)...
Nevertheless, NW makes money, is generally very solid (good on time rate), and since I consider Michigan home (currently I live in Savannah, GA though), I think of Northwest as my 'hometown' airline and I want them to do well.
Syncmaster From United States of America, joined Jul 2002, 2068 posts, RR: 10
Reply 17, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 9441 times:
AA7573E: You ask how one can see NWA is the technological leader, who do you think had online check-in first, they had self-service kiosks installed in more airports before United and many others even started having them in cities besides there own hubs, they have them in such cities as South Bend Indiana, and only NWA does, DL doesn't, AA doesn't, UAL doesn't, and Continental doesn't.
PHXMKEflyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 292 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 9433 times:
I thought AA was going to go into CH. 11 this past spring and they still have yet to file and are somehow still managing to stay out....not exactly sure how but it's really up in the air if they will enter or not, i believe it will conitnue to be up to AA management and their ability to continue to restructure with their employees and their union contracts, it's whats kept them out so far. Midwest Airlines I think is the other airline which is/may be on the brink of CH.11, however I don't think their outlook is as grim as some have made it out to be, they are receiving much support from local governments and their employees and are continuing to restructure themselves and lower their operating costs.
Ar385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7306 posts, RR: 39
Reply 20, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 9291 times:
Any of you are ignoring the fact that there was a notice in the papers today saying that Mexicana is withdrawing from the Star Alliance due to its break-up of its code-share agreement with UAL. You may think Mexicana is a puny airline with no influence in Star Alliance whatsoever. But how is UAL going to feed traffic South and Central America into its SFO, LAX, ORD hubs. This traffic is very high-premium and usually consists of high-end businessmen from Brazil, Argentina, Chile, etc. some staying in those cities butmany connecting on to Europe and Asia. How much more money is UAL going to loose with this dumb move. This traffic is going to go to Aeromexico and Air France in Skyteam.
TWFirst From Vatican City, joined Apr 2000, 6346 posts, RR: 51
Reply 21, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 9234 times:
It's irrelevant if the same technology is available to all consumers. The point is how the majors are utilizing the technology... NW invested major amounts of money in their back end systems way before its competitors, and has done a much better job of pushing its customers to utilizing its front end offerings and thus has a higher percentage of customers using internet check in, kiosks, etc., than its competitors. Customers appreciate the reliability of NW's systems, and the ease-of-use of its user interfaces, and thus continue to use it.
Mattnrsa From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 410 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 9240 times:
I can't imagine MX provided much feed from Brazil, Argentina, and Chile. They would generally have to connect via MX), Mexico">MEX just to get to a United flight. Varig provides the feed from that region of the world.
It was MX's decision to leave, not UA's "dumb move". There is a lenghty discussion already going on about the possible reasons for MX's decision.
AA7573E From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 475 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 9187 times:
All of this talk about NWA putting their technology in first just does not do it for me. Let me preface this by saying I have used all the major's websites for purchases, research and flight tracking. I consider myself more savy than the average traveler (as are you), why else would I(we) be here? I can't really tell the difference between the flight look up on NWA and that on Continental; the reservations system on NWA and that found at AA; the seat search function on AA and the similar application on NWA. Its all the same thing. In point of fact, if they put their technology in place that far ahead of the others, I would imagine that means it is a bit dated. As we all know, technology changes fast. You can not claim a competitive advantage when all the airlines are using the same technology, for the same purpose, with the same degree of urgency. No major airline has avoided investment in this area, they have to do it stay alive, and it makes good fiscal sense. On average, all of the majors get within a small range, the same portion of their business from online purchases. All airlines have invested in kiosks and self help centers.
So all the majors don't have kiosks in Southbend Indiana? Are you kidding me. That's probably do to some analysis done by the airlines that says you have to X amount of business originating from a destination in order to justify the expense of installing, maintaining and utilizing the kiosk system. You also have to have a demonstrated willingness by your PAX at that airport to use them. Not everyone wants to use the kiosks, and if their market research says not in Southbend, then they aren't going to put it Southbend.
I don't think you can really claim that NWA or any other major has done a better job of pushing people to use the net, than then next major. LCCs and rising costs did that. New companies like amazon.com and online banking pushed people further into the net. Airlines, and all other trend savy companies will continue to drive customers to the net. You paint NWA as if there were going out on the limb - being a risk taking, cavalier, pioneer that revolutionized air travel in this respect. Everyone did it, right around the same time.
That being said, I enjoy traveling on NWA. I have gotten great service, and the attention to detail in first class is very nice. I do not like the DC9s, but that plane has always been low on my list. I have no bone against the airline at all, in fact I will be flying them home to Texas for Christmas this year, b/c they beat the pants off the competition in terms of pricing, and I had some free upgrades to burn. I don't want anything to force NWA out. I just don't agree with the point that their technology is any better, more useful or more ground breaking than all the others out there.