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Which US Airline Will Be Next In Chapter 11?  
User currently offlineDelta777Jet From Germany, joined Jun 2000, 1450 posts, RR: 3
Posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 10802 times:

What do you think will be the next US Airline to enter Chapter 11?
Will United exit Chapter 11 and how long do they still have to exit Chapter 11?
Is Air Canada going to exit the Canadian Chapter 11???

Fly easyJet
62 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
User currently offlineWorkbench From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 10686 times:

1. American - Late 2004
2. American - Late 2004
3. American - Late 2004
4. American - Late 2004
5. American - Late 2004

UA will exit in Mid 2004. The US Airline industry really needs a big boy to go out of business for the rest of the industry to recover. It may as well be the bigest predator that has forced so many other airlines out of business.

User currently offlineTommy767 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 10663 times:

AA I don't think will enter bankruptcy, as they almost did in April. I think they're in the clear.

Delta-Strong, but maybe
USAIR-In and out.
NW: I cannot believe how much money they made last quarter!

I've always wondered if maybe one of the LCC's would enter chapter 11. Knowing that they're making money, I have no idea what to expect.

User currently offlineLuv2fly From United States of America, joined May 2003, 12341 posts, RR: 45
Reply 3, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 10564 times:
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I could see US going back to chapter 11, also I am not sure about Midwest.

You can cut the irony with a knife
User currently offlineMatt D From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 9502 posts, RR: 43
Reply 4, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 10527 times:

So Workbench: tell us again who you think is going to be the next bankrupt airline? Big grin

User currently offlineSrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 10491 times:

American by Spring of 2004
US Airways may revisit by May of 2004
Midwest by February of 2004 (CH. 7 by late Summer 2004)

User currently offlineStevenUhl777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 10384 times:

American? What is this based upon? What would be the "nails in the coffin" that would bring this about?

My bet is US, for the following reasons:
- Still losing money after emerging from Ch. 11..meaning their restructuring efforts failed...there were still more cuts to be made and they didn't make them. UA on the other hand is posting operational profits while still in Ch. 11...meaning the core business is profitable again. Only reason for the net loss were the "special items" related to bankruptcy, and those go away once you're out.
- Facing increased competition in two key hubs, one being SWA. What will their counteroffensive be?
- What will they have to do to cut costs further to stop losing money? More employee wage concessions? Lots of luck...

- United will reemerge, and it's probably going to be either March 31st or June 30th of 2004.
- Air Canada is supposed to emerge I believe 12/2003...they just got an extension for protection, but that was only for two months.

User currently offlineBmacleod From Canada, joined Aug 2001, 2980 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 10287 times:


American seems to be holding their own, They're still losing $200M quarterly but they're doing a much better job at restructuring than UAL is doing.....

I'd be quite surprised to see them slide into Chapter11. (9/11, Chapter11....wow the number 11 has come up in some very bleak areas, maybe it'll surpass 13?)

Delta acted quickly enough in restructuring to avoid sliding into trouble. Their future looks bright.

I'm very skeptical of NWAs accounting practices lately. Just how are they doing that well?

[Edited 2003-11-08 19:52:37]

The engine is the heart of an airplane, but the pilot is its soul.
User currently offlineLhr001 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 10275 times:







User currently offlineBoingGoingGone From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 10275 times:

I think they all might just make it. It'll take time to get there, but each is doing what they can.

On NWA... Not totally sure why, but they are. Also, the lack of a SARS problem is bringing people back to the Mall of America from the Pacific Rim. Full whales all day long...

User currently offlineMlsrar From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 1417 posts, RR: 8
Reply 10, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 10242 times:

Midwest received a significant financial aid package from Milwaukee and Racine counties. Coupled with voluntary wage concessions, and Milwaukee county lifting the property tax on aircraft, YX should be able to remain out of bankruptcy.

Hoeksma was very frank with the employees, told them what restructuring was necessary to survive, and they agreed. It was inspiring.

My .02 would be Delta, but their ability to stay out of B-court is a function of Song's success.

I mean, for the right price I’ll fight a lion. - Mike Tyson
User currently offlineTWFirst From Vatican City, joined Apr 2000, 6346 posts, RR: 51
Reply 11, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 10219 times:

>>On NWA... Not totally sure why, but they are.<<

Here's why I think they're doing so well (comparitively):

1) Great hubs/route structure. The new WorldGateway at DTW and the revamped MSP are fabulous airports, and even though the facilities at MEM are not in the same category, it's still a great airport to connect at, and NW is managing the seats out of there quite nicely, which leads me to:

2) Great management.

3) All the investment they made into technology the past few years is paying off. By far the most technologically advanced of the majors... on-line check ins, airport kiosks, internet bookings, are way ahead of their competitors.

An unexamined life isn't worth living.
User currently offlineEx_SQer From United States of America, joined Apr 2002, 1436 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 10151 times:

I just want to correct one misconception here. It isn't always profits (or lack thereof) that leads companies to declare backruptcy - more often than not it is one's ability to pay the bills that leads to declaration of bankruptcy. Theoretically, a firm can make an accounting profit, yet not have enough cash flow to pay the bills, leading to BK. On the flip side, a firm could be making losses because of noncash expenses, but still have enough cash flow to pay the bills and hence avoid BK.

User currently offlineUAL-Fan From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 377 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 10093 times:

Can a company just go in and out of Chapt. 11 bk. at it's whim? I thought there were some sort of laws that said you can't do that. Isn't chapt. 7 the next step after chapt. 11 fails?

User currently offlineAA7573E From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 475 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 10064 times:

I would like to know what the anti AA sentiment out here is based on? They have led the charge in employee concessions, pioneered the rolling hub concept, cut fat out their route system, consolidated aircraft families, delayed delivery of new equipment, renegotiated real estate and aircraft leases, obtained competitive long term financing, reduced capacity in unprofitable markets, cut service in terrible markets and continue to add targeted service on a strategic and tactical basis. What part of that makes you think they are headed to Chapter 11? Seriously, if you don't like the airline that is great, but I would love to see some backing for your assertion that by this time next year, the carrier with the most aggressive stance on cost cutting and restructuring will be in chapter 11. And just to be consistent with the facts, AMR posted third quarter operating profits of $165 million, and net earnings of $1 million.

My guess is that in the next 12 months, if anyone is going anywhere, it will be US. They are going to take it on the chin in PHL. Anyway you frame that, it will hurt the airline. Their bloated east coast route structure is on tenuous ground from LCC competition, and the simple fact that a majority of their routes are easily driven in a reasonable time, by PAX that are afraid to fly, weary of the new airport experience or simply unable to afford airfare. In addition, they HAVE to upgrade their longhaul fleet. It has been well documented on this and other sites, that their 767s are in shambles, and not a nice ride. Sooner rather than later, they are going to need to invest a lot of money to replace them, and that will hurt. Simply put, I don't think that US has the ability, given the deck they have, to call any bets, or take any gambles. They are most at risk of all the majors, and it seems that their first attempt to fix things was not as comprehensive or successful as it was supposed to be. Lastly, I have nothing to base this on, but I still think they have too much capacity in the air. I have taken 8 round trips on US this year, and every single flight had more empty seats than filled seats. I know this is just a micro slice, but in my impression, they have too much capacity in the market.

How is NWA more advanced than any other major. They all have internet check in, they all have kiosks, they all have online booking. The technology is the same, I don't see how you distinguish between NWA, DL, AA or any other major - or LCC for that fact. They are all on equal ground when it comes to technology available to the consumers.

[Edited 2003-11-08 21:17:39]

See you up front!
User currently offlineRiverVisualNYC From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 930 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 10001 times:

The definition of bankruptcy is not losing money as such, but having liabilities that exceed your assets. A company can be showing a paper profit each quarter, but to know how it's really doing you also have to look at the balance sheet. In this regard I don't know who is vulnerable, I hope they can all make it, but I think the public, with its short attention span, thinks the industry is back to business as usual. If someone significant had to stop flying I think it would be a major shock to the traveling public (anyone remember PA or EA?) and possibly even enough to make us question the economic recovery that is supposedly happening.

User currently offlineFjnovak1 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 615 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9917 times:

Another reason Northwest profits even in quarters that other cartel carriers do not are those 160+ venerable DC-9s and, to a lesser degree, the 20 or so DC-10s and the handful of 747-200s. 85 or 90% of these aircraft are fully purchased and paid off (i thought i read somewhere that a dozen or so DC-9s and some of the 747-200s were leased). Back in the early to mid '90s when Northwest was in dire straits and just out of Ch. 11 itself management made the seemingly unpopular decision to retrofit the tired-looking cabin interiors of the 1960s and 1970s era DC-9 fleet rather than place a large order for new aircraft. They did place the airbus orders to replace the large 727 fleet and for expansion purposes, but lots of money was spent as well on new interiors for the 165 or so DC-9s, the 747-200 fleet, and half of the 757-200 fleet which now is 15-20 years old themselves.

Compile that with the fact that, while older planes can be more costly to maintain, Northwest's DC-9s are beautifully maintained, and have the highest dispatch rate of any aircraft in the fleet. As it is frequently mentioned, pilots at Northwest joke that when the final A319 is ferried out to Mojave, its crew will ride back to Detroit in a red-tailed DC-9.

Because whenever a Northwest -9 lifts off it signals almost pure profit, NW is able to run their DC-9s on routes other cartel carriers would have CRJs and ERJs on. Detroit-Traverse City, Minneapolis-Grand Forks, Minneapolis-Rochester, MN, Memphis-Ft. Walton Beach/Valpairaiso, FL...all these routes have at least a couple DC-9 turns daily. One must think that CO, a great airline in of itself, would have nothing to do with these cities from their hubs if it wasn't for the ERJ.

So, for a laymen that doesn't know one aircraft from another besides maybe seating arrangements, the Northwest -9 looks the same to them as would an Airtran B717 (interiors are quite similar, indeed). Fact is a Northwest DC-9, 37 years old, makes US Airways 737-300s look like planes from a 3rd world carrier. Some of the DC-9s look better on the interior than the earliest NW A320s.

And for the business traveler who prefers a mainline aircraft to a regional jet or turboprop, the DC-9 fits that bill too. I'd say if it was not for that plane, Northwest might not be so successful.

Notice I do not say the same for the DC-10 and 747-200. I've never been on the 747-200 so I cannot speak on it but it appears that travelers have spoken and they want something newer on premium routes and NW listened and now we see them getting new A330s. Apparently the 747-200 are to be short-lived also, relegating the DC-10s eventually to Hawaii and Beach Market routes, where they are a great fit and likely will make NW more money.

On the risk of sounding like a die-hard Northwest coddler, let me preface this with two things: 1) at least NW doesn't start stupid sounding LCCs like "TED" and 2) NW is not always great, my mother was delayed for 6 hours in New York b/c of them cancelling flights ex- GA / KLGA), USA - New York">LGA and EWR for "weather delays" (thing is, CO was running on time to DTW, her destination, which puzzled me)...

Nevertheless, NW makes money, is generally very solid (good on time rate), and since I consider Michigan home (currently I live in Savannah, GA though), I think of Northwest as my 'hometown' airline and I want them to do well.

Go Blue!!
User currently offlineSyncmaster From United States of America, joined Jul 2002, 2082 posts, RR: 9
Reply 17, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9861 times:
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AA7573E: You ask how one can see NWA is the technological leader, who do you think had online check-in first, they had self-service kiosks installed in more airports before United and many others even started having them in cities besides there own hubs, they have them in such cities as South Bend Indiana, and only NWA does, DL doesn't, AA doesn't, UAL doesn't, and Continental doesn't.

[Edited 2003-11-09 00:13:13]

User currently offlinePHXMKEflyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 293 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9853 times:

I thought AA was going to go into CH. 11 this past spring and they still have yet to file and are somehow still managing to stay out....not exactly sure how but it's really up in the air if they will enter or not, i believe it will conitnue to be up to AA management and their ability to continue to restructure with their employees and their union contracts, it's whats kept them out so far. Midwest Airlines I think is the other airline which is/may be on the brink of CH.11, however I don't think their outlook is as grim as some have made it out to be, they are receiving much support from local governments and their employees and are continuing to restructure themselves and lower their operating costs.

User currently offlineCkfred From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 5875 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9826 times:

If UA slides into Chapter 7, then none of the other majors should go into Chapter 11. The loss of available seats from the #2 carrier takes care of the excess capacity in the industry.

Does UA slide into 7? Depends on how they do this winter. If things improve, they keep their debtor-in-possession fincancing. If things worsen, their financing gets yanked, and the slide starts.

User currently offlineAr385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7515 posts, RR: 42
Reply 20, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 9711 times:
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Any of you are ignoring the fact that there was a notice in the papers today saying that Mexicana is withdrawing from the Star Alliance due to its break-up of its code-share agreement with UAL. You may think Mexicana is a puny airline with no influence in Star Alliance whatsoever. But how is UAL going to feed traffic South and Central America into its SFO, LAX, ORD hubs. This traffic is very high-premium and usually consists of high-end businessmen from Brazil, Argentina, Chile, etc. some staying in those cities butmany connecting on to Europe and Asia. How much more money is UAL going to loose with this dumb move. This traffic is going to go to Aeromexico and Air France in Skyteam.


User currently offlineTWFirst From Vatican City, joined Apr 2000, 6346 posts, RR: 51
Reply 21, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 9654 times:


It's irrelevant if the same technology is available to all consumers. The point is how the majors are utilizing the technology... NW invested major amounts of money in their back end systems way before its competitors, and has done a much better job of pushing its customers to utilizing its front end offerings and thus has a higher percentage of customers using internet check in, kiosks, etc., than its competitors. Customers appreciate the reliability of NW's systems, and the ease-of-use of its user interfaces, and thus continue to use it.

An unexamined life isn't worth living.
User currently offlineMattnrsa From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 431 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 9660 times:

I can't imagine MX provided much feed from Brazil, Argentina, and Chile. They would generally have to connect via MX), Mexico">MEX just to get to a United flight. Varig provides the feed from that region of the world.

It was MX's decision to leave, not UA's "dumb move". There is a lenghty discussion already going on about the possible reasons for MX's decision.

User currently offlineAA7573E From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 475 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 9607 times:

All of this talk about NWA putting their technology in first just does not do it for me. Let me preface this by saying I have used all the major's websites for purchases, research and flight tracking. I consider myself more savy than the average traveler (as are you), why else would I(we) be here? I can't really tell the difference between the flight look up on NWA and that on Continental; the reservations system on NWA and that found at AA; the seat search function on AA and the similar application on NWA. Its all the same thing. In point of fact, if they put their technology in place that far ahead of the others, I would imagine that means it is a bit dated. As we all know, technology changes fast. You can not claim a competitive advantage when all the airlines are using the same technology, for the same purpose, with the same degree of urgency. No major airline has avoided investment in this area, they have to do it stay alive, and it makes good fiscal sense. On average, all of the majors get within a small range, the same portion of their business from online purchases. All airlines have invested in kiosks and self help centers.

So all the majors don't have kiosks in Southbend Indiana? Are you kidding me. That's probably do to some analysis done by the airlines that says you have to X amount of business originating from a destination in order to justify the expense of installing, maintaining and utilizing the kiosk system. You also have to have a demonstrated willingness by your PAX at that airport to use them. Not everyone wants to use the kiosks, and if their market research says not in Southbend, then they aren't going to put it Southbend.

I don't think you can really claim that NWA or any other major has done a better job of pushing people to use the net, than then next major. LCCs and rising costs did that. New companies like amazon.com and online banking pushed people further into the net. Airlines, and all other trend savy companies will continue to drive customers to the net. You paint NWA as if there were going out on the limb - being a risk taking, cavalier, pioneer that revolutionized air travel in this respect. Everyone did it, right around the same time.

That being said, I enjoy traveling on NWA. I have gotten great service, and the attention to detail in first class is very nice. I do not like the DC9s, but that plane has always been low on my list. I have no bone against the airline at all, in fact I will be flying them home to Texas for Christmas this year, b/c they beat the pants off the competition in terms of pricing, and I had some free upgrades to burn. I don't want anything to force NWA out. I just don't agree with the point that their technology is any better, more useful or more ground breaking than all the others out there.


See you up front!
User currently offlineLan_Fanatic From Chile, joined Sep 2001, 1071 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 9573 times:

How much traffic does Mexicana connect via Mex?

UAL has its own traffic in South America
LanChile has the major stake in chilean-US market, and if you neede to connect, you will use AA.

I don't see MX as soooo important for the south cone.

25 Ar385 : MAttnrsa, You are forgetting the passengers who had finished their 1 or 2 day business in Mexico and needed to go on Mexican or United, to any of thei
26 Mattnrsa : Why is it UA's dumb move? It was all MX's decision.
27 Ar385 : MAttnrsa, You are tight, my mistake I apologize AR385 Martin
28 NWAA330 : On the issue of NWA and whether or not they are more technologically advanced than other carriers the answer is both yes and no. AA7573E is right when
29 PVD757 : I believe it will be ATA. Last quarter, which is usually the strongest for airlines, ATA had trouble making their debt payment for their new aircraft.
30 Moolies : The US airline industry needs an entire revamp. They need to employ some people who are passionate about aviation and are prepared to put in the extra
31 AMM744 : Moolies, Thank You. At last someone has said something sensible. None of the current US carriers are anything special at all, the top two are at best
32 Moolies : Take for example SAA. They did an entire fleet revamp, image revamp, the changed their seats, fired the useless people and got compatent guys in. They
33 FFlyer : "NW is the only airline that gives you the capability of checking in online from your personal computer and to print out your own boarding pass" Hasn'
34 Goingboeing : US will go Chapter 7, basically because their "competitive response" to SWA's entry into PHL will be to offer super cut rate fares while asking the em
35 AASTEW : It kills me when people here think their Armchair CEO positions are the gospel. Remember, everyone was given predictions for UAL, USAir Group, AMR, DA
36 Alpha 1 : "NW is the only airline that gives you the capability of checking in online from your personal computer and to print out your own boarding pass. Sure
37 AASTEW : AA.com provides check-in and print boarding pass capability. I also think AA tried to start phone check-in...don't think that passed though. Someone?
38 NWAA330 : I apologize for my claim that NW was the ONLY airline offering internet check in on personal computers. They were indeed the FIRST to offer this innov
39 Post contains images AA717driver : AASTEW--AA has nearly $20 BILLION in debt. The interest payments alone in a couple of years will be over $300M a year. The pension deficit(caused by m
40 N754pr : ATLAS/POLAR, heard this from a person in the company.
41 Aaway : If they go through with the independence/LCC plan, I vote ACA. Consensus seems to be that RJs are inappropriate for mainline ops. ACA will have to obt
42 AASTEW : Of course, many of your statements/opinions are true...AA's labor/management relationship is probably the worst in the industry. Yes, AA is in a lot o
43 Searpqx : NWAA330 - I've avoided posting, because this really isn't what this thread is about, but you still don't have it quite right. While NW has indeed been
44 AA7573E : NW is the only airline that gives you the capability of checking in online from your personal computer and to print out your own boarding pass That is
45 Srbmod : Atlas/Polar has been hit pretty hard by the slump in the cargo market, especially in their niche, ACMI leases. But things started going south for them
46 NWAA330 : Searpqx, I completely apologize for posting that incorrect information. I went back and reread nwa.com where I originally found the information I post
47 Capt078 : i'll limit my response to only the more "established" carriers, and not to those few carriers that only have a handful of planes and flights. among th
48 Post contains images StevenUhl777 : Capt078: Thank you...you're the only who's come remotely close to answering my question as to why people think AA will be next. The thread started tal
49 Qqflyboy : Maybe there are some financial wizards here that can help me out with this. I've heard, time and time again, about debt and profits. I've heard cash i
50 AA7573E : Capt078 I don't see the logic of your argument for American being next. How about United not coming out? How about US not meeting their debtor in poss
51 Mallthus : I'm betting on America West if they continue their current policy of adding routes willy-nilly. The new LAX/SFO-JFK, LAX/SFO-BOS routes, the new PHX-Y
52 Post contains images AA7573E : I would not fly AW from LAX to JFK b/c AW is Air Niger. That is probably a pricey ride!! FYI - HP = America West
53 Mallthus : Point taken. The HP identifier code has always baffled me for America West. At least the story for ANZ being TE for so long made sense (they were Tasm
54 Highliner2 : AA7573E, Thank you, let's see the data behind these claims people...conjecture starting with "I think", or "I just know" doesn't count either... Still
55 Skymileman : I think that American is the favorite here for going out of business because they have always done so well. It is just natural to want the biggest to
56 Post contains images EA CO AS : NWAA330 - I've avoided posting, because this really isn't what this thread is about, but you still don't have it quite right. While NW has indeed been
57 NWAA330 : EA CO AS, Then take ur issue up with NW and their website, not me. "Northwest is the first major carrier to offer an Internet check-in program through
58 Thrust : The next airline probably is either American, Delta, or NWA. While American is losing less money than before, it is even bigger than United. "What the
59 Post contains links and images AA7573E : Ok, thanks for making me spend my night pulling throught the books. The numbers are as follows: AA Passenger revenue yield per passenger mile (cents)
60 CODC10 : If you listen to CO, they'd make you believe they have the most e-service kiosks, with 600-something (?) in operation around the US. Please don't thin
61 TWAL1011 : barring another terrorist incident or another downturn in the economy - I think we may have seen the worst in the U.S. aviation market (at least for t
62 NWA330Tony : Evryone keeps commenting on how good NWA has done through this economic downturn, one thing everyone is forgeting is NWA in 2000 began its biggest fle
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