Thrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2673 posts, RR: 11 Posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 15010 times:
Who thinks Boeing will answer to the Airbus A380? I personally believe they will....Anything is possible. Topping the Boeing 747 to me was probably incredibly hard to do...Nobody developed a jetliner as big for over 20 years! My belief is that if they do...They will do one of three things...either enlarge the Boeing 747 or the 777, or create an entirely new airplane design...what do you think Boeing's answer, if any, will be to the A380?
StarAC17 From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 3211 posts, RR: 9 Reply 2, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 14689 times:
Drop this thread there is too many Boeing vs. Airbus threads on this site anyway. To answer you question, if Boeing plans to match the A380 they are likely to make a new 747 that is based on the technology of the 7E7 if the 7E7 project ever gets off the ground.
Ahsanf28 From Bangladesh, joined Mar 2002, 90 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 14635 times:
Boeing certainly have the research and development skills to create a competitor to the huge A380 but they don't seem to have the money. Even if they raise the money somehow they won't be able to sell too many of the megaliner to justify the costs let alone make a profit. The market will not support two super-sized airliners.
Lehpron From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 7028 posts, RR: 22 Reply 7, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 14446 times:
Boeing will answer to Airbus' apparent monopoly of the super-capacity liners; the obvious proof is not the 7E7, but the new transport that Boeing is converting a standard 747 into. We have all see 747’s; they are making the fuselage even bigger to fit the sections of 7E7.
The next plane (797?) will be the blended wing body. It is the only design [Boeing has been playing with] that is capable of maintaining size and noise restrictions while gaining an upper hand in the super-capacity market which was certainly fully established by Airbus as much as 15 years prior.
Boeing is planning something big soon, the first may not be commercial but that is the only reason I can think of.
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
GEG2RAP From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 838 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 14317 times:
More likely they would go for a concorde replacement than a A380, personally I think A380 hype is all hype right now see how much passenger like boarind with 500 other people, again frequency people look at WN
My 2 cents GEG2RAP
Airbus_A340 From Hong Kong, joined Mar 2000, 1553 posts, RR: 21 Reply 10, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 14186 times:
Considering airlines like Cathay, Singapore Airlines and British airways are flying into heathrow three times a day from hong kong and/or singapore with full 747-400's and A340's, there is clearly a market for this aircraft, and the sales of 90-plus orders from airlines show that. (Although Singapore Airlines is the only one of the three that I have mentioned that has ordered any)
Leskova From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 6075 posts, RR: 72 Reply 11, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 14073 times:
As I've just written in another thread, there are more than enough markets that are either too small to sustain own flights to some of the "big destinations", or those destinations are already too congested: I guess that Narita wouldn't be to thrilled if BA, for example, decided to replace their current two 744s per day (F14/C70/Y30/M177 = 291 seats) from LHR with one or two 777s from LHR and adding in a 767/777 (or, better yet, a 737/320-BBJ/ACJ service) from MAN, BHX, BA / EGNM), United Kingdom">LBA, GLA and whatever else might warrant a flight...
There are some markets that will sustain further fragmentation, although I personally see that market as quite small - hundreds of cities will continue to be served through hubs only, unless someone finds a really radical idea of how to get more planes through todays congested airports...
And, just to mention that point as well - I'm aware that the idea behind route fragmentation is completely bypassing the hubs, but let's just think this through: if a market cannot even sustain a daily flight to a hub, how should it be capable of maintaining flights to several non-hub-destinations?
The fragmentation process will continue, the success that 767s and 330s have been enjoying over the years prove that beyond reasonable doubt - but there will, for the forseable future, be routes that can only economically be served by going through one or two hubs - which means that the 380 and the 747 will continue (or in the case of the 380 begin) to enjoy their life for quite some time.
Udo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 12, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 14010 times:
Some oh so wise people who permanently talk about 'more frequency' should better try to get updated first...either check some timetables of airlines like SQ, QF, LH, AF, EK and so on (never had a look on that, right?)...or have a short visit to LHR, NRT, FRA, JFK (never been there, right?) or other congested airports.
The world out there is pretty different from the unlimited 'Southwest Islip to Kansas City model'...
Tom_eddf From Germany, joined Apr 2000, 449 posts, RR: 1 Reply 13, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 13801 times:
I don't think the process of fragmentation will be sustainable over the next couple of decades because of it's negative impact on the environment (more aircraft movements, higher per-seat fuel consumption, more noise etc).
It might work in the US and some other regions, but definitely not in Europe. Some governments like ours in Germany already have an eye on what's going on with all those low fare carriers because they consider flying as being too "cheap" taking into account noise and exhaust emissions and energy consumption.. And the taxation of cerosene is already on its way and will further limit the possibility of having more point-to-point long range connections...
Wbryce From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2003, 91 posts, RR: 0 Reply 15, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 13499 times:
i recon the 7E7 wont go into direct competition with the A380, i believe there will be another version of the 747 that will challenge the A380, this was hinted by a boeing spokes person on a cargo documentary on Discovery Wings where it was mostly about 747's then a few words about the A380 where they said its bigger, etc which led onto "would this mean all cargo firms will be placing orders?" then they asked the boeing person if they will have any form of new aircraft to battle the A380, he mentioned the new 7E7 but mentioned there will most likely be a new 747 as the popularity of this plane speaks for itself, and they recon due to the success of the 747 program there already at the finish line.
Cptkrell From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 2548 posts, RR: 14 Reply 16, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 13339 times:
Like some of you have opined, I'm not entirely sure there is a market for another mega cattle car (one that could be built and sold in numbers that would guarantee a respectable return on investment, anyway). Should the world political and economic situation stabilize and show signs of a substantial upswing in the coming years, such a project might be readdressed by Boeing, but I am of the opinion that they will be comfortable in letting Airbus have their cake and eat it too (in this market) whilst toying with alternative future concepts that address different airliner needs.
As far as making a pax version available of their own current "Beluga" transporter redesign of the 74, notice this work is being farmed out, and I really believe that if such an airliner would be in serious consideration, it would envolve into more substantial redesign, rather than a retrofit.
I like Lephron's second speculation (797?), though, that Boeing may very well be burning some midnight oil on on something more revolutionary. The Sonic Cruiser debate has been beat to death, but I believe that world events had more to do with its' demise rather than the project being a smokescreen to take a lot of hoopla away from Airbus' 380 project. A lot of technology went into that project, and evidently some of the findings are being incorporated into the 7E7. I wouldn't be surprised that if, down the road, Boeing uses even more of their concept results in what Lephron calls a more dramatic, although different mission, product.
Only my .02 worth of ramblings, but I thought I'd chime in. Regards...Jack
Manni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 23 Reply 17, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 13218 times:
If Boeing is planning to compete with the A380 they'd better throw their cards on the table quickly. Many major 747 operators have already been ordering the A380. It's highly unlikely that airlines planning to operate the A380 would fly the '797' aswell. Soon there might be no powerfull customers left to justify the development of another Mamoth Airliner.
Leskova From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 6075 posts, RR: 72 Reply 18, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 13081 times:
I just noticed something - while most people around here say that it is somewhere between problematic and absolutely impossible to make the A330 comparable to the 7e7 by, for example, using it's (or similarly designed) engines - because of all the advances that have been made in science and technology in the 15 or so years between the A330s launch and the 7e7s launch, quite a lot of people seem to be perfectly willing to accept that the 747 can, just by adding some 7e7 technology, be modified into an aircraft that can, without problems, compete with the A380 - an aircraft that was launched some 30 years later!
Why is it not possible to update an aircraft some 15 years older than a new design, but absolutely possible to modify a 30 year old design to beat a new one?
Dynkrisolo From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 1834 posts, RR: 7 Reply 19, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 12959 times:
It might work in the US and some other regions, but definitely not in Europe.
The fragmentation theory is based on the phenomena how smaller planes have replaced the 747 in the past 15 years across the Atlantic. You probably can tell me how many trans-Atlantic flights originated in Munich in 1980? How many are there now? Are you sure about "definitely not in Europe".
Cptkrell From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 2548 posts, RR: 14 Reply 20, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 12927 times:
Leskova; actually, current generation 747s are really quite new and substantially updated in not only systems functions but materials and manufacturing methods when compared to the original builds. One could argue that there is a diminishing cost effectiveness after just so long before it becomes more economically feasible to do a complete redesign rather than keep perpetually updating the original, though. I am of the opinion that this is precisely the reason for the 7E7. Although I am not totally familiar with all of the published 7E7 specs, I do gather that this aircraft is really more of a "replacement" airplane for certain previous-generation Boeing and Airbus products rather than an entirely new mission profile airliner.
Could the current basic 747 package be massaged to deal with the A380? My guess would be "probably", but would the resultant product be really competitive and ultimately cost effective? My guess here would be "probably not", in the long run, anyway. Additionally, as mentioned before, there is a question of how many total A380s and B74Xs the market would bear. I just don't think Boeing will dip their toes into the A380 market, either with a repackaged 747 or an all new super-super jumbo. Hey, I could be real wrong and we might be seeing 74s with ultra-stretched upper decks in the future, but I am sceptical. Regards...Jack
Leskova From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 6075 posts, RR: 72 Reply 21, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 12820 times:
Jack, that still doesn't really answer my question - though I know what you mean.
I am fully aware that today's 747 is not, neither in technology nor in manufacturing, the 747 that was launched/designed in the 60s, but the point remains - and I fully agree with you that the market most likely will not be able to digest two large aircraft, because, even though there is demand, the demand is just not that large.
Still, the 744 is not new, as opposed to the 380 - just as the 330 is not new when compared to the 7e7: my question is, why do some see it as more realistic that the 744 can be upgraded to compete effectively with the 380, while quite a few around here maintain that Airbus would never be able to upgrade the 330 to effectively compete with the 7e7!
Dynkrisolo, I'm quite sure that what Tom_eddf wanted to point out was that, from today's situation, there will at best be a little bit more fragmentation, but not alot - his comments, as I understood them, were not directed at fragmentation that, unarguably, has happened in the past.
I can only agree with him, as I've said in my above posts - there are several markets where further fragmentation is simply not an option because of the traffic that's already going into either the departure or destination airport - and then there are other markets where fragmentation is simply not an option because these markets could not sustain anything above, maybe, a Dash 8-300ER (wouldn't that be a plane to cross the Atlantic in? )! These markets will have to continue on relying on hubs, and for them, the availability of hubs with enough capacity is simply the only way that they can - at least indirectly - be connected to the rest of the world.
Cptkrell From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 2548 posts, RR: 14 Reply 22, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 12751 times:
Frank; yes, yes, I now digest your question and would answer that I too don't understand this asymetrical thinking. Surely one redesign would be (nearly, anyway) as successful as the other unless there may be hidden parameters that would render such a project not feasible. Regards...jack
Leskova From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 6075 posts, RR: 72 Reply 23, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 12664 times:
Jack, that's (obviously, otherwise I wouldn't have asked the question) just my thinking... now, I know that the question alone brings this thread very close to the usual "mine's better than yours" A vs B bickering, but I am just curious if anyone has any reasons, based on facts, to suggest this, as you put it, asymetrical thinking.
N79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 24, posted (9 years 6 months 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 12560 times:
I do not think Boeing is going to compete head-on with the A380. The niche is just too small to justify the necessary capital investment.
I suspect that Boeing will wait until the 380 has been launched and accumulates some service experience before undertaking a competitive response. My own W.A.G. is that they will radically redesign the 744 while keeping a common 744 type-rating.
As far as fragmentation goes, I think it is not over yet. In the last 7-8 years or so there have been flight between secondary cities in Asia and Europe and N. America. For example, Los Angeles to Guangzhou, Chiang Mai to some city in Europe, and Bangalore to Frankfurt.
There are some markets where more fragementation is not practical but not that many: LHR and NRT are the two that really may need a larger airplane to replace 744 flights because of runway capacity.
Interestingly though, JL, NH, and BA have not ordered A380. In contrast, they have increased 777 flying and reduced some 744 flying. I think even these airlines will order the A380 towards the end of this decade and the beginning of the next though.
25 Yyz717: I think Boeing will stretch the 744 or 773...probably the latter.
26 Dynkrisolo: Leskova: There might not be too much more fragmentation can take place in Europe in the future, but you certainly don't expect the 380 to replace the
27 Leskova: Dynkrisolo, no, I do not think that the 380 will replace the smaller planes in the secondary hubs - I wouldn't be surprised if cities that are served
28 Mariner: A question for Thrust: I wonder why? Why does Boeing need to come up with a competitor for the A380? Times have changed, as many people have noted abo
29 Alessandro: Well, Boeing seem eager to keep the 747 line open, especially with the Beluga version of the B744 coming up. I personally only think the B747 and B777
30 Killerbabe: Boeing has no answer to the A380, in fact, the A380 is Airbus answer to the queen of the sky, the Boeing 747. Boeing is looking towards point to point
31 B2707SST: Leskova - I think one answer to your 747 stretch question is that the 7E7 Stretch and A330-200 will be direct competitors in terms of capacity and mis
32 Coronado990: I have a question: Is a person arriving CDG from Lyon on the TGV considered "connecting" traffic or "O & D"? I would think "O & D". Here's my line of
33 Alessandro: Anyone thinks that Boeing will end up as an owner of used A380 in the future?
34 Midway2airtran: I think it would be smart for Boeing to stay out of the mega-liner market! If anything, no more than an advanced B747.
35 Pilotpip: Is there even a 450-500 seat market? I mean, while airlines are ordering the A380 there is no way of telling if it will be a success until it is actua
36 Artsyman: I believe Boeing has watched the markets evolve over the last 10 years and has seen the trend for the major carriers to drop huge for more frequency.
37 AMM744: I reckon that Boeing is playing a watch and wait game. Presently there is simply no need for another giant, perhaps this may change. If the A380 takes
38 Jaysit: There is no interest for a 747 stretch. Not with Boeing's strategy based on smaller nimbler jets capable of serving secondary point to point markets e
39 AMM744: The rest of the world outside the US. You know, Europe, Asia, etc.
40 CVG777: What was Airbus's original market forecast for the A380 compared to what it is/ may be now? I am sure there has been some reconsidering of the aircraf
41 TWFirst: Since the 747 was known as the "Queen of the Skies," will the A380 be known as the "King of the Skies" or the "Empress of the Skies"?
42 Aviationfreak: What is this with Airbus vs Boeing? I think they both built beautiful aircraft and I hope they will build many more. It`s sad enough that McDonnell-Do
43 Motech722: Another great thread, and its great to see that there it has not become an A vs. B thread, rather it seems to have pretty much stayed on the overarchi
44 Aloha717200: Boeing IS making a competitor to the A380. It's called the 747 Advanced. There was an article about it not long ago. Boeing plans to create a new 747
45 Tokolosh: It will be good if Boeing makes the 7(E)7, hopefully as an innovative and creative aircraft that advances aviation. It will fill a gap Airbus currentl
46 Aloha717200: Boeing studies advanced version of 747 jumbo jet http://www.usatoday.com/travel/news/2003/06/16-boeing-jets.htm LE BOURGET, France (Reuters) — Boein
47 Aloha717200: Boeing's 7E7 a jumbo inspiration By JAMES WALLACE SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER AEROSPACE REPORTER http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/126952_airshow1
48 AvObserver: "There is no interest for a 747 stretch." This is not quite true. Recently, both Lufthansa and KLM asked Boeing to study a 450-seat model, which is wh
49 Backfire: Since you bring up the subject, may I unashamedly name-drop and say that I met with Randy Baseler yesterday and he specifically told me that the 747 A
50 N79969: Interesting comments. I think Boeing will be listening carefully to the customer feedback about the A380 when formulating its response. My fleshed out
51 Jet-lagged: The 747's days are numbered. Think of the MD11. After succeeding the DC-10, MD fiddled around with various ideas for the MD11 which never generated mu
52 Aloha717200: Jet-lagged. Please read the two articles which I posted above. The 747 has many more years ahead of it, and by filling the niche below the A380, Boein
53 Lehpron: " It's highly unlikely that airlines planning to operate the A380 would fly the '797' aswell." You're right Manni, how many airlines do you know that
54 Manni: Lephron, Lufthansa KLM Air France Virgin Atlantic South African Northwest Egypt Air Emirates Korean Air Cathay Pacific Thai Qantas Singapore Airlines
55 Boeing nut: Easy kids, we've had a very nice "non A vs B" discussion here. Let's not start. Boeing does not have an answer to compete with the A380. The only clos
56 Jet-Lagged: Aloha717200, I did go back and read your two posts. Mostly they are marketing-speak from a Company keeping presence in the media. Your own reply does
57 Lehpron: My point was not an "A vs. B" issue, it was a capacity issue, I am sure there are airlines with both types. Maybe you are right about BWB being an ext