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The Death Of Discretionary International Travel  
User currently offlineRivervisualNYC From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 930 posts, RR: 3
Posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4012 times:

With the US goverment detaining, turning around, intercepting with fighters and ordering the cancellation of many international flights in the last week, I think Americans will increasingly opt to stay home and foreigners will opt to spend their vacations (and their money) elsewhere, putting the final nail in the coffin of international tourism at least outbound from and probably also inbound to the USA. This will obviously result in a lack of business for international airlines, as the passenger numbers lost won't be made up by business and other non-discretionary travelers. Anyone else have any thoughts on this?

44 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineTrident2e From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3956 times:

I totally agree. It's a real shame, but recent events have certainly put me off travelling to the USA. As I said in another post here, it's not the threat of terrorism that will keep me and many others away from the USA but the way it is being addressed in the US.

User currently offlineUnited4ever From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 291 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3942 times:

I beg to differ. The first gulf war did not have a permanent effect, and anyway, aren't the business travellers the real bread and butter for the international airlines serving the USA?

Mike


User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 3, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3913 times:

Lets hope that these situations are over quickly = something is up at the moment and we may have a few more difficult days (or even weeks) but I would not expect that US bound flights arriving from European capitals being turned around, cancelled, escorted or so closely scrutinized will become a regular thing.

The good news is that the travelling public, in general, has a short memory span and travel recovers after a specific event. Also, the recent incidents (ie, AF and BA) may have caused inconvenience to some passengers and cost some revenue, but passengers (especially US pax) have some indication that the airline security system is working and there is more to it than asking senior citizens to remove their shoes during the security screening.

Lets hope that the situation calms down as we enter the new year.


User currently offlineJcs17 From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 8065 posts, RR: 38
Reply 4, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3878 times:

Wow, what a ridiculous post. Where do I begin?

With the US goverment detaining, turning around, intercepting with fighters and ordering the cancellation of many international flights in the last week, I think Americans will increasingly opt to stay home and foreigners will opt to spend their vacations (and their money) elsewhere, putting the final nail in the coffin of international tourism at least outbound from and probably also inbound to the USA

I'm sure that a 747-400 being brought down by terrorists in a major city wouldn't have a huge impact on tourism? I'm sure people would flock to the airport for travel if that was to happen. And oh, the airline industry, if that was to happen would be profitible instantly. I'm sure foreign tourists would love to travel to America after that....and Americans, wow, they'd be hopping on Air France flights to Paris in an instant. Dude, you live in a dream world.

This will obviously result in a lack of business for international airlines, as the passenger numbers lost won't be made up by business and other non-discretionary travelers. Anyone else have any thoughts on this?

So if a few extremists blow up a plane, business will get BETTER? Your reasoning is ridiculous.

The terrorists are out there. They are out to kill Americans, and in the process kill the American airline industry. I am glad the government is taking these steps to prevent terrorist attacks using aviation, and if it temporarily puts a dent in tourism...so be it. The REWARD OUTWEIGHS THE RISK




America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!
User currently offlineBistro1200 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 337 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3871 times:

It's as if some countries don't appreciate the concerns that we have in the US, or take such threats seriously. "The way it is being addressed" in the US is that we are ensuring our security as stated in the Constitution. There really isn't an opportunity to have a summit with UBL and tell him to knock it off.

Muslim extremists are attempting to destroy the US by any means they can, we have to defend against that threat. What other way can it "be addressed?"

As a seasoned international traveller since 9/11, I think that a *vast* number of people will come and go into the US with no problems. Keep it in focus here folks: We had 6 Air France cancellations, and 2 British Airways cancellations, all done by their respective governments. Consider the hundreds of Atlantic crossings made each day, and we are talking a miniscule number. If there were no credible threats I think France would tell the US such, although the US told AF if that plane flew on Christmas eve to LAX, they would refuse it entry into US airspace.

I really think this sends a message to everyone, that the US is maintaining the security of its airspace and air travel, as well as showing that security is a serious issue. I would tend to believe that better security lends itself to enhancing customer demand. Look at El Al as an example, as they are much more of a target and yet they continue to fly with nary an incident.



Measure to the millimeter, mark with a crayon, cut with an axe.
User currently offlineTrident2e From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3860 times:

Jcs17 - none of the other posters under this thread resorted to personal attack, so why did yours? Having a different opinion to others is a good thing if it encourages debate, but surely others have the right to express their views without being accused of being ridiculous.

User currently offlineJcs17 From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 8065 posts, RR: 38
Reply 7, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3853 times:

The "Death of Discretionary International Travel?" People in countries where a visa is not needed to enter the US can board a plane on a moments notice and travel here.


America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!
User currently offlineJcs17 From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 8065 posts, RR: 38
Reply 8, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3843 times:

Trident2E, because his reasoning was absurd--and there was no personal attack. The post was harsh, but it was harsh on the arguement he made.


America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!
User currently offline777236ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3813 times:

People in countries where a visa is not needed to enter the US can board a plane on a moments notice and travel here.

Unless your name is on The List.


User currently offlineAirtrainer From Belgium, joined Aug 2003, 1558 posts, RR: 12
Reply 10, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3813 times:

This is my own opinion but I don't fear to fly to the US. I've flown 3 times since the tragedy, felt very safe and enjoyed my flights (2 with UA, 1 with AF). I really love going there and hope it wont be the last time.
Bistro1200, you said that the cancellations were made by british and french goverments, but what could they have done with US goverment saying that they would not allow the planes to entry the US airspace ?

Jef



Life is short : eat dessert first !
User currently offlineMD88Captain From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 1330 posts, RR: 20
Reply 11, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3757 times:

The planes are full, full, full. They can't all be on business.

User currently offlineArtsyman From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 4745 posts, RR: 33
Reply 12, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3688 times:

Maybe look at the larger picture here. Everyday there are literally tens of thousands of flights landing in the US every single day, and you think that 2 or 3 of them having a little extra security check counts for squat ?

Jeremy


User currently offlineRiverVisualNYC From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 930 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3542 times:

Thanks all for your responses. It's easy to tell some of you are more political and less rational than others. The topic is related to business, not about the relative merits of one nation's security procedures vs. another, or Airbus vs. Boeing, or Bush vs. Dean or whatever. I happen to think security is a good thing, but I also happen to think most people don't like being detained for 3 hours after a 7 hour flight, or turned around in midair, or threatened by fighter jets for no clearly explicable reason. And they certainly don't want to experience this sort of thing if they have a choice NOT to. In other words, Americans would rather vacation domestically without this sort of hassle, and Europeans would rather holiday in the Med and such than come to the US and be treated as suspicious. The change in the pattern of discretionary travel has alot of business implications, including how many flights are scheduled, what type of aircraft are used, how many employees are needed, how much profit can be made, etc. It also has a spillover effect to other businesses, for example here in NYC tourist spending is down almost 20% at hotels, restaurants, gift shops, etc because of the lack of international visitors. So I'd like to hear more if you can keep the feedback fact-based and business oriented, and not political.

User currently offlineUAL747DEN From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2392 posts, RR: 11
Reply 14, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3492 times:

People will not stop coming to the U.S., Americans will not stop traveling, and successful business people have no other choice than to do business in the U.S. your wrong im right end of story!


/// UNITED AIRLINES
User currently offlineGSPSPOT From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 3037 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3459 times:

I know the way the US Gov't is handling the ongoing terror situation isn't pretty, but does anyone with real knowledge of the threat and the industry see another way to handle these things? Something effective from an anti-terror standpoint, but less harsh to travellers and the industry?

We (Americans) want to be safe, but we need the tourism and commerce (not to mention strenghening ties with our friends from other nations) that international travel bring.



Finally made it to an airline mecca!
User currently offlineRiverVisualNYC From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 930 posts, RR: 3
Reply 16, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3445 times:

As for those of you who think business travel is necessary...I work in the business travel sector and have observed firsthand the cancellation of several meetings and conferences in the last few years, many in fact replaced by videoconferencing, which aside from the security issue also saves money. Alot of what used to require physically bringing people together can now be done on the internet, whether it's a brainstorming session or technical diagnostics or whatever. There is increasingly little in the business world that requires bringing people face to face, especially as Americans get more comfortable with technology and cost-savings becomes the primary goal of the business world. Bottom line is I don't see business travel saving the US travel industry when the discretionary traveler opts to stay home.

[Edited 2004-01-02 22:57:53]

User currently offlineObithomas From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 131 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3409 times:

I myself am proceeding with my international vacation plans next week. I will be flying from IAD on Lufthansa on Jan 9th. I worked hard to afford my vacation, and I'm reasonably confident of Lufthansa's security measures. Why cancel?

[Edited 2004-01-02 23:13:39]

User currently offlineRiverVisualNYC From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 930 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3375 times:

Obi- Good for you, get out there and enjoy your trip to Europe, and when you get back be sure to tell all your friends that you traveled overseas and the worst thing that happened to you was the weakness of the dollar!!!

User currently offlineUal747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3356 times:

I will be flying on CO 12 IAH-CDG on the 8th of Jan. I'm not cancelling my plans.

UAL747


User currently offlineObithomas From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 131 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3336 times:

I'm going on to India, just passing through Frankfurt, but thanks for the encouragement, and yes the dollar is weak against the Indian Rupee too. Ouch!

User currently offlinePA110 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2006 posts, RR: 23
Reply 21, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3312 times:
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RiverVisualNYC,
Your question is definitely worth discussion, contrary to Jcs17's complete and unwarranted overreaction. In several discussions with Asian carriers, I've found that they've got an enourmous dropoff in inbound traffic to the USA because travelers from several southeast Asian countries are not getting visas approved, even within the new longer approval times. Other travelers are finding the process so onerous, they simply are not bothering and picking other destinations. This has an economic impact on both the carriers and our own tourism industry. While the world situation and political realities demand higher levels of security and vigilance, I just think it could be better handled.



It's been swell, but the swelling has gone down.
User currently offlineRiverVisualNYC From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 930 posts, RR: 3
Reply 22, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3292 times:

PA110-
Thanks for getting the point and adding some good info to the discussion. With the focus on European airlines the Asian situation seems to be under-discussed here. I think the net effect is that foreigners that don't have to come to the US won't, plain and simple. Would be nice to quantify that in dollars and jobs to be lost if at all possible. I can tell you I am invovled with destination management here in NYC and we just lost a Greek corporate incentive group to another destination (India) because of the perceived security hassle. I've also read that Brazil is considering fingerprinting and photographing American visitors as retaliation for the US practice that will soon be implemented. Seems to me like the 99%+ of potential foreign visitors who are not terrorists are increasingly insulted by the attitude, if not the actual policies, and they will choose to spend their time and money elsewhere in places where they are made to feel welcome and where their business is appreciated. They will also not be quick to return to the US when and if we ever get off of the Orange alert.


User currently offlinePA110 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2006 posts, RR: 23
Reply 23, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3261 times:
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If the trend continues, I suspect that the bean counters at most airlines will start to quantify the losses on US inbound markets. I'm sure that it doesn't just affect SQ and CX, the carriers with whom I spoke. UA also relies just as much on inbound sales as it does outbound. Sometimes we Americans forget that US carriers also actively solicit inbound business from overseas residents, and it isn't just the outbound American passenger occupying all those seats.


It's been swell, but the swelling has gone down.
User currently offlineWindowSeat From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 1312 posts, RR: 57
Reply 24, posted (10 years 8 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 3235 times:



RiverVisualNYC, touché!

Well said. Believe it or not, the security measures are hurting business and it is showing already. I am not going to debate whether the security measures are right or wrong. They probably have to do what they have to do. But you have made an excellent case, that the discretionary traveller to the United States will take their money somewhere else due to this perceived security hassle. People with sharp reactions to your post are just not ready to accept the fact that the security alert has its effects on discretionary air travel.

Our hotel company lost a lot of business from a Swiss company which is a regular at our property (all business travellers). They have postponed a lot of visits if not cancelled them altogether. What that means for us is we're not busy as we were supposed to be, and what does that mean for our front line hourly staff?? They aren't getting enough work hours as they otherwise would.

Seems to me like the 99%+ of potential foreign visitors who are not terrorists are increasingly insulted by the attitude, if not the actual policies, and they will choose to spend their time and money elsewhere in places where they are made to feel welcome and where their business is appreciated.

Absolutely true. My friend's parents have refused to come to the US ever again. They are world travellers who have travelled five continents over the past two decades. My friend and his family will be vacationing 'down under' this year which was originally scheduled to be California.

cheers

p.s. I am keeping my trips. To London this month and to India in February.





I'm all in favour of keeping dangerous weapons out of the hands of fools. Let's start with keyboards.
25 RiverVisualNYC : PA110 Do you think there are going to be the same kinds of cancellations, diversions, detentions, and fighter-shadowing of Pacific flights as well? Th
26 WindowSeat : PA110: Sometimes we Americans forget that US carriers also actively solicit inbound business from overseas residents, and it isn't just the outbound A
27 RiverVisualNYC : WindowSeat- Are you in NJ? I am in NYC, where visitor spending is down like 18%, although the number of visitors is up...What gives? Despite the weak
28 Snoopy : The original poster got quite a lot of flak, which in my opinion was completely unjustified. I made a similar point in another thread as a result of c
29 Kellmark : There is a completely different attitude toward flight security by the Europeans. In November I was on a domestic flight in Europe on an MD80 and the
30 PA110 : RiverVisualNYC, Sorry it took so long to respond... was reading one of the many anti/pro flight attendent threads going on at the moment... boy, some
31 RiverVisualNYC : Kellmark- Names please for the airports and airlines in question? Since you felt like telling us the type of aircraft, surely you can tell us the rest
32 WindowSeat : Yes, I'm in NJ, and your comments about this whole business affecting us are valid. There has been a marked shift in the dynamics of the visitors to t
33 RiverVisualNYC : WindowSeat- Good point, I think once people of the sort you mention decide not to come here, they will never come back. This is sadly a one-way trend.
34 Wingman : Unlike many people on this forum, I prefer to make mistakes in the name of prevention and in some cases risk the charcaterization of "overreaction" be
35 Kohflot : Guess what? There will always be people in this world that want to kill Americans. There always have been, there always will. So does this mean we wil
36 RiverVisualNYC : Wingman This is not a political forum, we are discussing business here, and as I have seen the more enlightened posters sharing some personal knowledg
37 WindowSeat : RiverVisualNYC: This is sadly a one-way trend. True... I will probably start looking other jobs soon! cheers
38 Wingman : You're a couple of tacos shy of a full combo platter Rivervis. One, not a signle political or racist comment exists in my above post. Two, I'm no fan
39 RiverVisualNYC : LOL let's see, what are potential jobs for former airline and travel industry employees? manufacturing? no that's in china now.... programming/tech su
40 RiverVisualNYC : Wingman- Kohflot, Trident, WindowSeat, Snoopy,PA110 and others make some good points here about a business that affects the livelihood of many of us i
41 Mog : I don't think the drop in International travel (as different from American travel) had anything to do with 9/11, or with the subsequent cancellation o
42 IndustrialPate : ...Easy to blame the 9/11 bogyeman. Why don't Americans realise that the bogeyman has now gone past, it is time to clean up the act? Mog, Did you thin
43 DeltaSFO : No, his cavalier attitude toward 9/11 sounds like something he might have gotten from IndianGuy.
44 Sydscott : "Airplanes have been falling out of the skies regularly" Really???? Where and what airlines??? "Sometimes of their own volition, and sometimes courte
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