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USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here  
User currently offlineMatt D From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 9502 posts, RR: 47
Posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 9367 times:

No disrepect meant to all of the hard working folks of USAirways, and you have my condolences. But all signs seem to point to their imminent shutdown and liquidation, unless they pull off a real longshot miracle. Not likely given the current business climate.

So let's pretend you are all bettin' folks. What are your predictions for when USAirways shuts down-either through sale (a la Americans mercy killing of TWA) or Creditor demanded liquidation?

My guess is within 90 days, or approximately April 15.

If they can last that long, then my second guess will be sometime between Labor day and Halloween. After all, if they can make it to summertime, which is the busiest time of year, then that will see them through one last "fire sale".

Look to see ridiculous fares such as $129 R/T PHL-LAX.

When such fares start appearing, they are always the last gasp of life from an airline in its death throes. Remember Nationals Unrestricted $69 R/T's from LAX-LAS about a month before they went under?



[Edited 2004-01-10 18:02:49]

107 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 8037 posts, RR: 5
Reply 1, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 9280 times:

I think US will be gone within 60 to 90 days.  Sad

And you know there will be a major dogfight between CO, DL and UA for the former US routes and there will be a major dogfight between WN and FL for route authorities from PIT and PHL.


User currently offlineYanksn4 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1404 posts, RR: 12
Reply 2, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 9176 times:

Unfortunately US A I R WAYS is gone.  Crying Now is american going to take over the carolinas/lga and Ua going for maybe Reagan?

BTW- if the UA/US merger had gone through, I think this would not be happening.



2013 Airports: EWR, JFK, LGA, LIS, AGP, DEN, GIG, RGN, BKK, LHR, FRA, LAX, SYD, PER, MEL, MCO, MIA, PEK, IAH
User currently offlineIflyatldl From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1936 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 9174 times:

Except for the Trans-Cons, DCA and LGA slots, maybe some Trans-Atlantic routes and the Shuttle, US doesn't really have a lot to fight over sadly enough. I could see maybe something with CLT and PHL, but overall, US's route Network wasn't that profitable. We all know Florida routes are a dime a dozen. A carrier anounces we're starting service to X City, FL and other carriers response is: Yeah, whatever.


Ah, Summer, Fenway Park, Boston Red Sox and Beer.....
User currently offlineMD88Captain From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 1338 posts, RR: 20
Reply 4, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 9173 times:

I don't see a major dogfight to buy/acquire any routes. DAL and other have the ability to just add flights into former US Airways markets. No of the airlines are at full capacity. U's demise will just be absorbed by the marketplace.

User currently offlineLeviticus From New Zealand, joined Oct 2007, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 9137 times:

This is a very strange thing, USAirways is dying. But simultaneously they are about to join Star Alliance. How does that go together ? Maybe they have some secret plan or something.

User currently offlinePanaman From United States of America, joined Sep 1999, 439 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 9094 times:

All I can say is use your frequent flyer miles quick.......!


Sorry I moved from SXM, looking for a new house on Anguilla now!
User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12595 posts, RR: 34
Reply 7, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 9096 times:

Being part of an alliance won't save them. I think we're seeing the beginning of the end . . . and a headache for Airbus, which now has dozens of A32Xs to place - not going to do much for the price of new aircraft, is it.

I think WN will ensconce itself in PHL and AA (being already at RDU) will establish its hub as the dominant one in NC. Sad to see a big airline go, particularly when it's taking some great old names with it - Mohawk, PSA, Piedmont - but that's the market economy.

I wonder, however, if US's collapse will be enough to save UAL.


User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 8037 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 9086 times:

MD88Captain,

I think the more likely prospect if US does fold is the dogfight between WN and FL for route authorities out of PHL and PIT. Given the low seat-mile cost structure of WN and FL, they could fly many former US routes and still make revenue from the flights. Remember, FL already has a presence at both PIT and PHL, and WN has a presence at PIT and will soon do a major presence at PHL by the end of 2004.

Given that prospect don't be surprised under this circumstance that FL may ask Boeing to keep the 717-200 line open, because FL is going to need a lot more 712's to fly many former US routes out of PIT and PHL. And it could mean much more 737-700 sales to both WN and FL in the long run.


User currently offlineRockyRacoon From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 984 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 9066 times:

Weaken themselves up so UAL can buy them out? Only thing I don't think they've got the financial capabilities right now.

peace


User currently offlineYanksn4 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1404 posts, RR: 12
Reply 10, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 9027 times:

Could we see maybe UA picking up some the former US planes? Maybe a Ua A330?


2013 Airports: EWR, JFK, LGA, LIS, AGP, DEN, GIG, RGN, BKK, LHR, FRA, LAX, SYD, PER, MEL, MCO, MIA, PEK, IAH
User currently offlineRockyRacoon From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 984 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 9012 times:

Or UA could speed up phasing out their 737, with a bunch of US 320s and 319s.

User currently offlineJetBluefan1 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 3018 posts, RR: 14
Reply 12, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 9002 times:

I really hate to say this, but US Air will be gone by April 30th  Sad It's going to be so sad - it's such a great airline that I've always enjoyed flying.

JetBluefan1



Most people on a.net hate JetBlue. Get used to it.
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 8964 times:

the key to US' longevity will be how willing any other carrier is to keep US operating in the markets they acquire. The value of US' assets is not the real estate they own or lease but in the revenue that is generated from the use of those assets. It will take any carrier time to ramp up US' operation under the acquiring carrier (months at best). The minute US stops flying, competitors will move in, start taking business, and the value of the assets are diminished. It may be in the acquiring airline's interest to provide Debtor in Possession financing to US for the assets they want US to continue to operate. That is certainly more costly than acquiring assets at face value but is more likely to result in continued US jobs and service to US' communities.

User currently offlineMatt D From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 9502 posts, RR: 47
Reply 14, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 8962 times:

Actually, I believe the beginning of the end of US goes all the way back to the late 80's, starting with the Piedmont and PSA mergers, both of which never really did much for them. Ever since that time, US has constantly struggled with profitablity. They have been ever so slowly shrinking. They were gone from the West Coast by summer 1991 and the mixed fleet inherited from Piedmont hobbled them throughout most of the 90's. Then what only made things worse were the 1991 and 1994 crashes (LAX, CLT, PIT) that absolutely decimated their reputation, causing damage that they never really recovered from.

User currently offlineDonder10 From Canada, joined Oct 2001, 6660 posts, RR: 21
Reply 15, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 8961 times:

If they did then UA could pick up some of the 32Xs to replace some of the 737s providing the lease rates are competitive.

User currently offlineMatt D From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 9502 posts, RR: 47
Reply 16, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 8941 times:

IMO, United is no position to pick up anything. If US is on its deathbed, UA is in the bed next door in Intensive Care as well. The biggest beneficiaries to the US shutdown will be JetBlue, Southwest, AirTran, and probably Northwest, long looking to establish a Northeast presence.

User currently offlineAtrude777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5702 posts, RR: 52
Reply 17, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 8904 times:

im seeing a pattern here. ya'll predict sometimes around April.....thats when TWA got bankrupt. I dont think AA will buy US Airways, or any airline, they may get aircrafts and routes but it wont be like AA with TWA.

Alex.



Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 8902 times:

Matt D is right. US's 320's have higher lease costs than UA's old 737's. UA will be watching the US situation and will probably get stuck w/ worthless tickets that were issued by US under the UA/US codeshare.

Keep in mind that CO, DL, and AA already have fairly extensive overlap w/ many US routes. DL can compete for most of US' revenue w/o adding many resources at all. AA competes in the NE but has now SE hub which is why they would probably be most interested in CLT. You could well see many aircraft upgrades by DL, AA, and CO if US folds. Even if someone acquires US' assets, DL, AA, and CO aren't going to welcome any competitor to the neighborhood w/ open arms.


User currently offlineMatt D From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 9502 posts, RR: 47
Reply 19, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 8883 times:

Also I would like to add that when the day comes and you start seeing a lot or all of the outbound International flights being cancelled, yet all planes coming in, it will mean that the shutdown is in progress. Just like when the original Braniff shut down, they wanted to make sure all of their planes could be stateside so that no foreign governments could sieze them.

User currently offlineRockyRacoon From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 984 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 8869 times:

I forgot about Independence. Independence Air has got to be excited too. Now they've got a decent chance to succeed. I wonder if they'll be making any changes in route structure etc?

User currently offlineClrd2go From United States of America, joined Feb 2003, 1000 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 8794 times:

Hmm..I guess we'd better use our free round trip tickets to Nassau pretty
quick.


Jim



What a long strange trip it's been
User currently offlineStevenUhl777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 8765 times:

I also agree with the 60-90 day timeframe. Now that word is out that US is in deep sh*t, many companies and individuals will steer clear, expediting the process, and I don't see US officials being agressive to counter that trend, unlike what UA did in 12/2002 by assuring it's "business as usual". UA was successful, there weren't large migrations away immediately following their Ch. 11 filing.

I see Song being a big winner here, and probably AirTran as well. WN will win big in PHL and probably launch CLT, and F9 and B6 will certainly look for a way in, too. AA and NW could also benefit, especially in BOS. UA will benefit somewhat due to the codeshare, and a good number of US' passengers would probably use UA for transcon. routes. UA would probably increase frequency into PIT and PHL, not sure about CLT. I don't know if this is possible under Bermuda II, but perhaps UA could move an IAD-LHR slot up to PHL (or maybe the currently unused SEA-LHR slot) to pick up some of the vacuum left over from US' international routes.

Just my .02.


User currently offlineRjpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 8719 times:

I feel like everyone is overthinking this. US still has some financing lined up. All of this stuff in the news is probably the truth, US is looking to sell some assets because they can use the cash now. US still has a long way to go before Chapter 7.

Also, for some historical context. Pan Am started selling assets and with the cash they refined their operation to the point where they were making money! Until Pan Am 103.


User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (10 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 8697 times:

good thought on the PHLLHR route, Steve. If UA picks off the LHR route (and they probably aren't capable of acquiring any assets), the future of PHL as a hub is very uncertain. Without London, PHL has limited value as an int'l hub.

25 Ntspelich : RayChuang - and WN has a presence at PIT and will soon do a major presence at PHL by the end of 2004. Hate to say it, WN isn't at PIT. NS
26 Danny : I give them 6 months.
27 AA717driver : RJpieces--Exactly what financing does U have lined up? Some that hasn't come from the ATSB loan? Or, is it from the RSA? With no unencumbered assets l
28 Lfutia : I'm also going to say 60-90 days now that US is totally screwed and people will find out and decide not to fly US because they are screwed so that wil
29 Logos : As I said in another thread, I'd say the over/under is about 10 months. I'm truly sorry for those professionals (especially ex-PI) at US who are tryin
30 ANstar : I'm sure Jetstar may take some of the A320's, don't think they'll be hard to place at all!
31 CO737800 : I will have to say that US Air will last till Oct or Nov
32 Danny : A330 to NWA A319/A320 to UAL BOS slots to Virgin USA LGA slots divide among majors Anything valuable left?
33 Bluewave 707 : The vultures will be circling the carcass known as US. The only ways for US to survive is to pare down their fleet to two to three types, and chuck th
34 FLIBOYZ : REDEEM THOSE FF MILES NOW!!!!! I GIVE US UP UNTIL APRIL MAY THE LATEST. IT'S SO SAD. MY .02
35 StevenUhl777 : Also, get rid of Stephen Wolff and his people. ??? Wolf left first and left Rakesh Gangwal as CEO. Gangwal left in 2000 I think it was. Larry Nagin, g
36 Atrude777 : Friend of mine wants to know something...hes got a free us airways ticket, wants to use it to to LAX around mid-july should he buy the ticket now...?
37 Lhr001 : 45 days or less...... Boston to be divided between Air Tran, America West, American, Delta, Jet Blue, and Northwest. Charlotte to be divided between A
38 Adam T. : I agree that NWA would probably buy US A330s, but like everyone else said, UA is no position to buy anything right now- which is why I don't see them
39 Av8rDAL : Yeah, I agree. Reduce fleet to strictly Airbus 319s, 320s, and 330s if they still want to operate transatlantic routes. Cut routes to those that are p
40 FA4UA : I think we'll see the start of the liquidation process in about 90 days but the end won't be for at least a year. It will be a slow death. I also agre
41 Adam T. : Sorry guys, I saw the topic about CLT if US goes under AFTER I posted my question... Adam
42 Post contains images SwissINTLA340 : Most Likely within the next 4-5 months once WN starts going out of Philly.........
43 Flairport : I give Us Airways a few years. I think that they will make a comeback. BUT, in case I am wrong, a couple of q's: my firend is from CLT and travels the
44 Bistro1200 : I guess I should sell my Mesa stock! I'd love to see Jonathan Ornstein the day he gets that call of US's demise.
45 Srbmod : Once they sell off the US Airways Shuttle, 90-120 days. There will be several groups that will take some hits from US Airways going CH 7. First off, t
46 DeltAirlines : I give US until Memorial Day. It's unfortunate, as I have been flying US quite a bit over the past year, and I have been very impressed with their ser
47 Matt D : Why would AA be interested in RDU again? They had that airport pretty much all to itself until 1995, at which time they abandoned it so that Midway II
48 Mikey711MN : I wonder if YX couldn't do some point-to-point eastern operations if they managed to get the necessary open slots at, say, BOS, LGA or DCA. It'd be a
49 Adam T. : I've always wondered why the RDU-LGW route is so popular for AA?
50 FraT : Because it's sponsored by GLAXO. This company committed to quite a number of seats.
51 Post contains images Flashmeister : I doubt that we'll see US gone in 60-90, but I do think that it could happen by the end of 2004. Bronner isn't going to piddle money away, but he's al
52 Adam T. : Thanks Frat, do you think the large number of colleges and universities in the area might also contribute? Especially when students maybe go study abr
53 N670UW :
54 Gilesdavies : Hi guys I have thought this for sometime and give it 3-6 months. I have taken a gamble and booked flights in March with US from LGW-LAX via PHL, and t
55 FraT : "do you think the large number of colleges and universities in the area might also contribute? Especially when students maybe go study abroad or what
56 Flashmeister : Also lets not forget that if we're talking about the death of US, what we're really also talking about is the death of the classic legacy air carrier
57 Aa757first : What about F9 or B6 for the 319/320, respectively? They are both in good financial shape and growing. They could get a bunch of planes for pretty chea
58 Trekster : Any thing after April 17th will be fine with me, im flyin them on the 10th April and coming back the 15th. .
59 Post contains images Flashmeister : F9 might take a couple to a few Airbii, but they're often regarded as one of the most conservatively-manged (and grown) airlines. They're not going to
60 Matt D : Airbii?
61 Flashmeister : Airbii: Play on words - plural of the word "Airbus"
62 Post contains links Reggaebird : This one's off the wires just 4 hours ago! http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1073280929910
63 Lijnden : US Airways might not survive, although it is an election year! I think smart business is to UNMERGE US Airways to its former airlines (PSA, Piedmont,
64 Flashmeister : The latest FT article is nothing new, just painted in a different way. If the ATSB wants fines or concessions from US, it's just another item on a lis
65 Scottb : Yanksn4 asserts: "BTW- if the UA/US merger had gone through, I think this would not be happening." Not true. UAL was going to pay about $4 billion cas
66 PiedmontGirl : Scottb: Moreover, US did pick up an efficient hub at CLT which is still the most desirable site after ATL for a southeastern hub. US did not pick CLT
67 Flashmeister : I know there was an article in some paper or other that gave Ed Colodny the credit for the CLT hub. That's an error. The credit is not his. LOL! Credi
68 Post contains images Iflyatldl : PiedmontGirl: Wasn't PI even running CLT as a hub before the new terminal opened? Of course it wasn't what it is now or even in '87, but I would have
69 Post contains images PiedmontGirl : Iflyatldl: Wasn't PI even running CLT as a hub before the new terminal opened? Of course it wasn't what it is now or even in '87, but I would have swo
70 OPNLguy : PI Girl... I passed thru CLT a couple of times back in the early 1980s before the new terminal was finished, and everything was done from the old sing
71 Clipper707 : Sorry to say, but I only give them 60 to 90 days. The talk has been that NK is going to buy the airbus319's for the 11 new cities in 2004... And also
72 PiedmontGirl : OPNLguy: It was tantamount to having a hub on the deck of an aircraft carrier! I never saw it happen while I passed thru there, but I always wondered
73 Aa757first : I think smart business is to UNMERGE US Airways to its former airlines(PSA, Piedmont, Republic etc.) US never purchased Republic. NW did. AAndrew
74 Post contains images A340pilot : I will take square.......................April 22,2004 @ 10:37am ! Is that spot taken yet? How much money is in the pool to be won if I am correct? Ho
75 ShortsFA : I think it will be awhile before we see UsAirways go. I think we will sell off assets like TWA did starting in the 1980's. The shuttle/express/DCA slo
76 USAFHummer : I too think US's death is inevitable, and I'll be a bit more optomistic and give them 6-12 months before the end...time to use my US FF miles...for aw
77 Ordpark : Has anybody considered the possiblity that US mgmnt is floating the threat of asset sales in order to get the Unions to agree to more givebacks? And p
78 NorthStarDC4M : July 28th 2083. no more to say nope... nothing at all...
79 Badgerguy : I agree with Matt D. From this day forward, it will be a quick short death. I always liked flying USAirways. Their F/C cabins were nice, but I think t
80 Ordpark : Badgerguy - what do you base your prediction on?
81 Flyinggizmo : I have news for you ladies and gentlemen. It appears that there is a glimmer of hope in all of this mess. The union heads that caused all this to come
82 OzarkD9S : I could be wrong, but US may linger on for awhile longer than 60-90 days, as seems to be the armchair predictions here. Eastern, Pan Am and TWA scrape
83 PSU.DTW.SCE : I doubt NW wants anything to do of US whether or not they fall.
84 Tommy767 : Some users say that US will be gone in 60-90 days. I mean is this a prediction? or I mean is there insider proof? I'm not doubting any of you, I just
85 RayChuang : I think if US does finally liquidate, expect a big battle between WN and FL for especially CLT. People forget that WN does very well in terms of busin
86 Post contains images Usnseallt82 : 90 days, tops. That's with every flight shutting down and all those frequent flier people receiving nice corporate letters apologizing for their billi
87 Boeing4ever : I'll have to agree with a 90 day estimate. Shame really, but for me, it was more surprising that they made it this far past 9-11. B4e-Forever New Fron
88 Usnseallt82 : I would also agree with the previous. Although it is hard to see carriers hanging it up these days, the fact that they were able to push on as long as
89 Post contains images Aa757first : Here at ABE we will lose 13 flights (nearly 25% of all scheduled service), and lose 10 at AVP (Scranton). What other airports will lose alot of their
90 PiedmontGirl : Aa757first: It's beautiful livery. It really is. I think there's still some room for US to make it. Not much room, and it will be a squeeker, but it s
91 Usnseallt82 : I agree with PiedmontGirl as well. There is always room to squeeze through the cracks of the bankrupt concrete slab! And, I do love the liveries mysel
92 Scottb : PiedmontGirl- Check what you quoted from me; I said "pick up," not pick; i.e. USAir picked up CLT as a result of the merger with Piedmont (maybe I oug
93 PVD757 : I personally think that there is only one positive that will come from this. The reduction in capacity on the east coast will make everyone else profi
94 PiedmontGirl : Scottb: Check what you quoted from me; I said "pick up," not pick; i.e. USAir picked up CLT as a result of the merger with Piedmont (maybe I ought hav
95 Klwright69 : I agree with OzarkD9s. PAN AM, Eastern, and TWA, held on for YEARS and YEARS. In the wake of a POSSIBLE US demise, I think CO would get their gates at
96 Capt078 : us airways fall from grace as a legacy/major: immediate us airways' liquidation dissolution: no time soon.
97 Slamclick : Always amazing how many students and salaried workers and professional surfers and skibums there are out there who are better airline analysts than T.
98 PVD757 : You forgot us who work for airports who went to Aviation schools.
99 WorldTraveler : Slamclick, There are plenty of people on this board who understand the airline industry very well. Given that the industry is in such a bad state now,
100 Scottb : Slamclick says, "Always amazing how many students and salaried workers and professional surfers and skibums there are out there who are better airline
101 Aa757first : What about the proposed LCC at PIT? Is that coming along? Then US Airways would be getting it at PHL at PIT. Instead of focusing on the negatives, wha
102 Post contains images ScottishLaddie : So that's why their fares are so cheap on expedia then! I knew they were in trouble but....
103 Aa757first : $101 PHL to BOS. Maybe I'll convince my parents to let me have one last farewell flight on them. Hopefully, I won't be, but just in case... AAndrew
104 Cloudy : For airlines in truly horrible, C-7 threatening kind of trouble like USairways is, good economic times can be more threatening then bad. This is stran
105 Matt D : Jesus UAL, you think maybe you could stop grinding your axe a little? Did it ever occur to you that maybe the reason that I have, as you put it, "so m
106 CO2BGR : A couple things from my perspective: 1 CO leases the LGA terminal to US so that is not for sale. CO started about 20 RJ flights from LGA just before 9
107 Post contains images ScottysAir : I'm guess it is time to lock this thread today and no more talks about anything with these posting. This is only way you should need to find something
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