RJpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (10 years 1 month 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 13462 times:
PVD757, why do you think AirTran and Frontier won't be here in 2010?!! They are both doing quite well now and have good future growth plans.
Honestly, I think the industry will look the same in 2010 as now except:
-No US Airways
-JetBlue will be a big player since all of their planes on order will be in operation and more will be on order.
-AmericaWest looks like they will finally have a profit this year, hopefully they will transform into an airline with a longlasting model
-The majors will also have to transform their models or they won't be around either. I think UA and AA will have to shut down a hub and rely more on "focus cities"
-A lot more niche carriers. It seems like we have seen so much growth in this area since B6 arrived...VirginUSA, this new Loco in Pittsburgh, Independence Air, etc
PVD757 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3405 posts, RR: 17
Reply 22, posted (10 years 1 month 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 13178 times:
Airtran will not be around for one reason. DL. I know, your argument already "They've survived for years against them".
Here's my point: Look at what Delta did with Jetblue on one route. When Airtran starts up their transcon network with their OWN dedicated planes, Delta will just add capacity to each route and systematically get rid of them. Think about this: Airtran is not going to start service to small airports from ATL with their new aircraft. They are going to go head to head with DL on major routes.
I know that Ryan does contract work for them on routes now. But, I believe that if Airtran wanted to stop the routes tommorrow they could without worrying about where to put the airplanes. When they own the hardware, it's a different story.
Also, they survive for the most part by flying niche routes. Delta is not going to run them out of Flint Michigan (sorry if you're from there by the way). LAX, SEA, SFO are another story.
Last, Airtran is picking up a new type with the 737. Their low cost model must change to reflect this, just like jetBlue's will have to. This is the reason why WN will never fly anything else but one type of aircraft.
As far as Frontier is concerned, I think that IF, and a big IF, UA survives the bleeding right now, they will keep TED around long enough to put Frontier out of business. Ted has no other mission. Frontier is just keeping the gates warm and the airport open.
Capt078 From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 421 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (10 years 1 month 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 13143 times:
i'm not sure we can say who will be a major, as right now a major is determined by revenue, and of course, by 2010, the $1 billion mark will not be such a grand number. instead, i list who i think will be the top
us airways/america west