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What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?  
User currently offlineThrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2690 posts, RR: 10
Posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 8230 times:

I have a horrible notion that the introduction of the A380 could literally knock the 744s out of the skies, and I did not just figure this out. Now look, this is not a Boeing vs. Airbus thread, but we cannot argue with the facts that the A380 is superior to the 744 in almost every way except maybe cruise speed. It is bigger, longer-ranged, has a much larger passenger capacity will probably be more fuel-efficient, and will feature advanced technology such as PTVs. I also assume they will have a glass cockpit as well as a fly-by wire system. How many airlines have installed PTVs in their 744s? Do you think that the A380 could mean the end of many current generation 747s? I love both Airbus and Boeing, and can't wait for the A380 to enter service, but I do not want to huge amounts of 744s disappear from the skies rapidly.


Fly one thing; Fly it well
66 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineNoelG From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 8037 times:

I don't think it's the end for the 744.

Boeing will just up the anti against Airbus with something else - they did it with the 737 when the A320 came out and there's no sign of that dissapearing any time soon  Sad

I think it will certainly be interesting to see how the A380 is received and how Boeing in particular will react when it begins service in a few years...




User currently offlineStarlionblue From Greenland, joined Feb 2004, 17068 posts, RR: 66
Reply 2, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 8010 times:

The 744 and 388 compete, but not that closely. The capacity difference is quite large. Look at the 773 and 744, they compete in some ways but happily coexist.


"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots."
User currently offlinePanAm707320B From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 97 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 7973 times:

Without a doubt it will have a massive impact on any future sales, although orders of pax variants have slowed to a trickle in the last couple of years anyway. Unless a new/updated version is introduced pax models will eventually get phased out over many years, but expect to see the freighter version around for much longer.

User currently offlineThrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2690 posts, RR: 10
Reply 4, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 7963 times:

Well, then, Starlionblue, I guess we would expect the A340 and the A380 to coexist happily together as well. Can the A346 be considered a rival of the 747 as well? I would think so.


Fly one thing; Fly it well
User currently offlineThrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2690 posts, RR: 10
Reply 5, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 7917 times:

When/if the A380 becomes a freighter though, I would think the sale of 747 freighters will come to a complete halt. The A380 freighter obviously would have much more room for cargo space than the 747. Again, I do not have any more respect for Airbus than I do for Boeing. I hope the 747 and the A380 will coexist. The 747 is one of my favorite aircraft, the last thing I want is for it to disappear.


Fly one thing; Fly it well
User currently offlineBeechNut From Canada, joined Apr 2004, 726 posts, RR: 10
Reply 6, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 7850 times:

Nothing man-made is forever. The 747 is yesterday's aircraft. Yesterday's technology (with some freshening for today's realities on the 400 series).

There aren't too many 747 missions that cannot be done by aircraft in the 777 or A340 series, especially the A340-600 or 777-300ER. Either of the 777 or A340 are more modern, FBW, probably cheaper to operate.

I predict used aircraft values for the 747-400 will head south. The telling sign will be when the first 747-400 winds up with a new start-up LCC. Already there's a trend to convert passenger 744s to freighters.

The A380 will occupy the ultra-high capacity niche. The Triple 7 and the A330/340 series will occupy the higher capacity int'l flights. The 7E7 and A330-200 will fill in nicely in the point-to-point lower capacity int'l runs.

The only real 747 advantage I can see is right now is the combi version, basically an A340-300 or 777-200 in terms of pax capacity with room for a heck of a lot of main deck freight.

I think very soon the Boeing line-up will consist of different variants of the 737NG, 7E7 and 777. The 747, 767 and 717 will be history (the latter particularly sad for me, I'm a HUGE DC-9 fan!).


User currently offlineThrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2690 posts, RR: 10
Reply 7, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 7783 times:

I still think Boeing is going to try to do something with the 747 and 7E7 to answer to the A380. I wouldn't rule the 747 out yet. I have said it before, and I'll say it again, the answer to Airbus for Boeing lies within the 747 and more modern technology. I don't want to see Boeing just give up....that would make the competition way too boring, and no company easily admits defeat. I would like to see the Boeing and Airbus rivalry continue well into the future. It could lead to developments of aircraft much more superior to the ones we know today. The competition must go on!


Fly one thing; Fly it well
User currently offlineStarlionblue From Greenland, joined Feb 2004, 17068 posts, RR: 66
Reply 8, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7670 times:

There is no reason for Boeing to make a larger plane, especially since they believe that it will not pay off for Airbus anyway. Boeing are doing quite well with the 737 and 777. The 7E7 (may she fly well) will provide a perfect complement. If Boeing want to play in the A380 space, they have to put up serious $$$ for a payout they say is small at best.

Taking on the A380 head-on at this point would be silly. The potential buyers of a 747x have all gone to the A380 now.

If Boeing wants to do something to knock Airbus out of the water, they need to think radically different. BWB or Supersonic or something like that, but with good operating costs. But that would be a huge gamble.


Well, then, Starlionblue, I guess we would expect the A340 and the A380 to coexist happily together as well.

Of course. I mean there will be some cannibalization, but that's always the case.



"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots."
User currently offlineThrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2690 posts, RR: 10
Reply 9, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7625 times:

I never considered this, Starlionblue. It's actually a very good point that you make. No wonder Boeing isn't concerned then. But say the A380 is a success? I would think Boeing might want to reconsider.


Fly one thing; Fly it well
User currently offlineStarlionblue From Greenland, joined Feb 2004, 17068 posts, RR: 66
Reply 10, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7571 times:

I wouldn't say that Boeing isn't concerned. They still want to milk the 744ER for a while longer, but their focus is not there.

The sad fact of the A380 from a competition perspective is that the market is very very small in contrast to a huge investment. Compare that to the A320/B737. Large market, much smaller investment.

So if Boeing change their minds, as it were, they would have to come up with something which was truly revolutionary, something which would lower costs or speed up the flights in a big way. When the 707 came out, it could carry hundreds of times more pax than the QE2 ocean liner (in a given time) and they would pay 1/10th of the price. That's a revolution!

If Boeing can't come up with this killer plane, they will do much better concentrating on making a fantastic 7E7. When you think about it, the 7E7 serves more or less the same niche where Airbus is weakest.

As they teach you in the army: Don't strike where the enemy is strong. Strike where he is weak.



"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots."
User currently offlineLTBEWR From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13138 posts, RR: 15
Reply 11, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7551 times:

The A380 will be limited in use for many years as to the airports that can handle it, so the 747 will continue, albeit in fewer production numbers, to serve markets/airports where the A340/777 isn't large enough. There are also some countries that prefer B vs. A due to political/trade reasons. In the meantime, Boeing needs to come up with the updated 747-500 or NG as some refer to it here to remain competitive. Of course, the 777 has proven excellent for very long range flights and has cut into the demand for the 747-400's for pax use.

User currently offlineSolnabo From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 854 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7541 times:

Thrust: "No B vs A"!

Who are you fooling? Puhleeeze.... Nuts

Michael//SE



Airbus SAS - Love them both
User currently offlineThrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2690 posts, RR: 10
Reply 13, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7528 times:

Supersonic jetliners definitely would prevail over size, there is no doubt about that. Were the Concorde to be reintroduced today with more efficient engines and a longer range, there is no doubt it would be an enormous success, and if the engines were fuel efficient enough, I can't argue with you in saying that the A380 would have a hard time outselling Boeing. That actually seems to be a better route to take than reclaiming it's throne as the company to produce the biggest monster aircraft.


Fly one thing; Fly it well
User currently offlineThrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2690 posts, RR: 10
Reply 14, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7501 times:

Okay, maybe a little Boeing vs. Airbus  Big grin

But I'm not favoring one or the other. As I said before, I love both companies. And I'm looking forward to seeing the A380 enter service. I was just wondering about the A380's impact on the 747. I want to the see the A380 and the 747 in service together for a long time...I love the 747, and I don't want to see it disappear...is that a crime, Solnabo?



Fly one thing; Fly it well
User currently offlineStarlionblue From Greenland, joined Feb 2004, 17068 posts, RR: 66
Reply 15, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7475 times:

The big question here is: Can the 777 be stretched further? If you hang on a root wing plug like the A340-500/600, make it longer, hang more powerful engines on it, maybe add a center bogie for the weight, it becomes a one for one 744 replacement sizewise. Or you could even use the same wing for a 4 holer à la 330/340.

I'm not saying it's practical, just that this plane could be much more economical than a 744x. The 777 airframe is over 20 years younger and the wing 10 years younger than the 744. Simply a much better starting point than the 744.




"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots."
User currently offlineBrons2 From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3015 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7395 times:

The 747 will continue on, slightly enlarged, in the 450 seat range. There are no other aircraft in the 400-450 seat range. The A380-700 will never be made because it will be too heavy. The 777 won't be able to be stretch appreciably again because of the difficulty in rotation of such a long airframe.

Airlines that bought the 747 at one time because it was the largest plane on the market will now buy the A380. However, the 747 will keep the 400 seat market.



Firings, if well done, are good for employee morale.
User currently offlineStarlionblue From Greenland, joined Feb 2004, 17068 posts, RR: 66
Reply 17, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 7335 times:

I think Mr. Brons2 hit the nail on the head.

Unless Boeing comes out with something really new like the BWB or the Supersonic Cruiser.



"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots."
User currently offlineAnthsaun From Mexico, joined Apr 2004, 544 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 7319 times:

I see the 747s still flying over two decades. I'm pretty sure evolution will reach it sooner or later. But, what it really should the A380 introduction mean to Boeing is a huge challenge.

I've not seen an A380 fly yet. No one has. For sure it will fly. Then, certifications will come. I bet we will have a lot of discussions.

A380 for sure will display most of the B747F, but not the 747 at all. It seems like most airports are not working out to receive the A380 yet.

And as Starlionblue says, they will coexist. No doubt of it. One more thing; the time come when B747s and A380s will be history. An honorable history. But, that's still faraway.



Over 80 years in business say a lot about success
User currently offlineAZA330 From Italy, joined Feb 2004, 289 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 7231 times:

According to me there are too many 747 around to see this plane disappear in a short time.
And I can't wait to see an A380 taking off, and I hope to fly it as soon as I can. Last Sunday on TV I watched a show about the Airbus and Boeing competition...Airbus built the A380 according to the philosophy that in the future there will be an heavy traffic between the major hubs in the world.
Boeing thinks that there will be more point to point connections, so we will not need a big aircraft, but a medium size aircraft, very fuel efficient and able to fly for a lot of miles.
So I think Boeing is not interested to build a plane like the A380 and in the future we will see only A380 instead of 747, but, again, this will happen in a long time.
Ciao


User currently offlinePsa53 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3071 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 7165 times:

I agree with a lot of opinion here
about the untested and market(flying
public)interest in the A380.

Boeing in the 1960's,betting everything on
747,proved there was a market for jumbo .I'm not
so sure about A380,that it might to big for
it's britches.While it could work in cargo,
the main focus of the flying public or even
attracting enough paying passengers to
support the aircraft,is a question mark.

I believe Boeing is playing the right hand.
It is in position to react fast with super 747,
or might be planning a supersonic jumbo.

I agree,talk money and speed in the right
terms to the airlines,the A380 is dead.








Tuesday's Off! Do not disturb.
User currently offlineMischadee From Sweden, joined Apr 2004, 271 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 7153 times:

Bye bye Queen of the skies.

Mischa.



ARNiboy
User currently offlineKl911 From Czech Republic, joined Jul 2003, 5204 posts, RR: 15
Reply 22, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 7147 times:

It will mean that the 747 is DEAD. They cannot compete against the A380 with a 40+ year old plane.......

Sorry, but it will happen.... I love the 747, but I'm afraid that retirement is the only option left....


User currently offlineORDagent From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 823 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 7091 times:

I refuse to get into a Boeing vs. Airbus rant. I have read that the 747 was a slow seller at first due to a turndown in the economy in the early '70's and that the airlines weren't quite sure what to do with them since they thought that the 747 would be turned into freighters as soon as the SSTs were coming on line. Will the same thing happen to the A380? Only time will tell. The build it and they will come philosophy worked for Boeing and I think it will work for Airbus. The major intra and trans Pacific routes are at capacity and FRA/US and LHR/US flights are growing by leaps and bounds. It sure is a gamble by Airbus. I hope it just isn't hubris on there part to show they are as big a player as Boeing (which is already proven).

User currently offlineNWA742 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (10 years 6 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 7070 times:

Bye bye Queen of the skies.

It will mean that the 747 is DEAD. They cannot compete against the A380 with a 40+ year old plane.......

Sorry, but it will happen.... I love the 747, but I'm afraid that retirement is the only option left....


Maybe if you two would quit having wet dreams about Airbus taking over the industry, you'd take a little more look into reality.

First of all, the 744 and A380 are in two very different classes of aircraft. They don't directly compete, you should know that. Airlines could only logically replace a 744 with an A380 on very very few routes.

Now we move on to the very old and commonly shot down argument about "30/40 year old designs competing with new Airbus".

The 744 is NOT a 40 year old airplane, nor is the 747-100 for that matter. The 744 is still a modern aircraft, and it sure as hell operates like one. You guys like to say this about the 737 and A320 as well, and you always fail to remember that the 737NG program is actually a newer one than the A320. So, if Boeing's gonna be replacing the 737 by 2015, that means Airbus needs to be doing the same thing to keep up. It doesn't mean the 737 is more outdated.

Don't shoot down Boeing just for using basically the same fuselage. There was no point to spend billions more to drop the 737 and 747 and make new replacements for them, whenever all they had to do was redesign them with modern technology. That obviously worked perfectly, since, according to you, these "old designs" can do the job, and all aspects of it, just as good if not better than Airbus's newest designs.

A lot of people on here seem to forget that the 747 is still a very capable and efficient aircraft, and airlines will continue to use them for a long time. 744s are enormous cash cows on heavy load routes. There is still not an aircraft in the same class as the 744. The 773 and A346 don't have quite the capacity, and could only do 744 operations with restrictions.


Sorry to disappoint you two, but the 747 is not going anywhere for a very long time. In fact, all of us in our age right now will probably not live to see the last flight of the 747.




-NWA742


25 XFSUgimpLB41X : The A380 does not realy mean that much to the 747.... the A380 is a completely different class of aircraft with over 100 additional seats over the 400
26 PH-TVH : I hope the A380 will not find any costumers! 744 is still king of the sky and will remain on that position for a long time (so I hope.....)
27 Mischadee : NWA742 I didn't mean that the A380 would replace the 747. In my opinion the 747 IS old. And it had it's glory day. And I am not a totally airbus lover
28 Benyhone : Most of you above are really forgetting that most airports won't be able to handle the A380 without serious upgrades to taxiways and aisle clearances.
29 NWA742 : if the A380 will not compete with the 747, which aircraft is the 747 competing against? As I and others have clearly pointed out before, the 744 is no
30 Gigneil : Now look, this is not a Boeing vs. Airbus thread, but we cannot argue with the facts that the A380 is superior to the 744 in almost every way except m
31 Roberta : I think the A346 and and the 773ER are really wiping the 744 out. Those things have around 15% better efficientcy and a almost the same size.The 744's
32 Aerosol : Concerning future sales as a pax aircraft, i do not see a bright future for the 744. The effect can already be recognised in terms of orders. I still
33 Thrust : Thanks for the info about the cruise speed, Gigneil. Appreciate it. So the Airbus A380 has totally outclassed the 747 in every way except for the fact
34 Thrust : BTW, what engines will the A380 use? It has been officially announced, right? Will it be PW, GE, and RR as options, or just two of these, or one of th
35 Thrust : Well, I found one of the engine manufacturers that will be on the A380, Rolls Royce. Are any others known yet? BTW, which airline will receive the pro
36 Gigneil : The two engine options will be the RR Trent 900 and the GE/Pratt GP7200. They were announced in 1999 or 2000. N
37 Post contains images FLYtoEGCC : Thrust A380 will use Rolls-Royce Trent 900 or GE/PW Alliance GP7200. So far, orders have been split roughly half and half. Sorry if this is a double p
38 Post contains links AvObserver : The A388 will be faster than the 744 but the proposed Advanced model will equal it. http://www.boeing.com/commercial/747family/back/back9.html Project
39 GREATANSETT : I think that the 747 production will die out. The A380 marks the end of the 747 But I would not put it passed Boeing to create a new type of aircraft
40 Horus : I think that the 747 production will die out. The A380 marks the end of the 747 But I would not put it passed Boeing to create a new type of aircraft
41 DIA : "As I see it, the 747 Adv. should own the 400-500 pax niche market while, of course, the A388 and A389 rule the over 500 passenger class." Couldn't ha
42 BA Pilot : FACT; BAA expect 1 in 8 Landings at LHR to be A380s with 10years time. Says it all. A380 is the way to go and yes I believe the days of Boeing dominat
43 Greatansett : I 100% agree with you DIA, both aircraft have great technology but of course newer aircraft would have better technology. The 747 was designed for cer
44 Post contains images Roberta : Roberta, the reason many of us don't think the A387 stands a good chance for launch is its' extremely high MTOW compared to the only slightly less cap
45 Post contains links Brons2 : I think that the 747 production will die out. The A380 marks the end of the 747 The only way this is going to happen is if Airbus' figures of the A380
46 Espion007 : I belive that it will have a pretty hefty impact.Its already got 100+ orders,and well we have the media which loves this stuff. the boeing 747 has bee
47 United Airline : What Boeing will do is....... Build a new B 747 Advanced with new B 7E7 systems and technologies and stretch the plane slightly. Then current B 747 op
48 Thrust : Well, I will say this--the 747 is much better looking than the A380. I'm sure the majority of you will agree with me.
49 Mark777300 : I find it odd that some think that the A380 will eliminate the 747 from existance. First off, I was under the impression that the A380 would seat over
50 Sllevin : Here's my take: The 747 has died off not because of the A380, but because of the 777 and A340. The A380 will die off for the same reasons. The predict
51 SoAmSky : There is a thread about Atlanta no longer seeing pax 747 because demand is more suitable for 777s or 340's size. That is also true to many other airpo
52 Starlionblue : As has already been stated, the 744 has competed itself out of existence, helped by the 346 and 773. The market simply isn't any bigger. Building an e
53 Dutchflyer : At this moment the B747 is flying and the A380 are just a few pieces of metal/composite in a factory. No real comparison. When the A380 takes the sky
54 777ER : As others have said the B747 and A380 both stand in different markets. The B747 is in the 400 seat market and the A380 is in the 555 seat market. I be
55 Indio66 : Boeing has made a strategic decision not to compete with the 380 and I think that is just fine. Two very large aircrafts would not be good for either
56 Alessandro : Always when a newer competitor comes up the way to compete is to lower the price of the older plane/car/whatever and hope to make money from service/p
57 Rjpieces : "The 744's orders have dried up. It competed itself right out of the market, no need for the 388's help." I wouldn't say it competed itself out of the
58 RayChuang : I think the 747-400 will start to disappear not because of the A380 (which only relatively few airports can accommodate), but because of increased sal
59 Joni : Boeing has likely already responded to the A380 by lowering the price of 744s. Boeing has been making 744s for a long time now, and they've doubtless
60 Anthsaun : I want to bring up the fact that airlines flying the A340-600 want to turn it back because it is not what Airbus promised. So I would say, Airbus just
61 Adria : I think that Boeing is making a big mistake not competing in the A380 market. Airbus can offer aircrafts from 100-550+ seats but Boeing cannot
62 ConcordeBoy : Airbus can offer aircrafts from 100-550+ seats but Boeing cannot Airbus at this point does not offer a competitive newbuild pax aircraft in the 200-25
63 Osteogenesis : ConcordeBoy Airbus at this point does not offer a competitive new build pax aircraft in the 200-250 seat category. Well the A330 is just a little bit
64 Starlionblue : Anthsaun said: I want to bring up the fact that airlines flying the A340-600 want to turn it back because it is not what Airbus promised. So I would s
65 Cjuniel : I am sure someone already made this point, but I am going to make it anyway since I don't feel like reading all the posts. The A380 does NOT mean the
66 Post contains images VgnAtl747 : There is still going to be routes that require more capacity than an A330/340, but less than an A380... the 747 will still hold it's ground and have a
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