Ssides From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 4059 posts, RR: 19 Posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 6734 times:
First of all, let me say that I'm NOT wishing for USAirways to go under -- all I am asking is what will happen if they do, in fact, liquidate (as has been predicted several times on this board). What will happen to its Shuttle? DCA slots? Other routes? Aircraft? Employees?
This may be a somber thread, and I'm sorry about that, but to me, it's an intresting subject. I know we don't have any true experts here, so I'd just like to see what people think.
Levg79 From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 1008 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 6660 times:
They would probably be absorbed by a bigger airline. I would say they'll get absorbed by UA because of their close partnership, but I'm not sure if UA would take such a risk considering their own situation. Just look at what happened to AA when they acquired TW. Just my $0.02 on the subject.
A mile of runway takes you to the world. A mile of highway takes you a mile.
Ssides From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 4059 posts, RR: 19
Reply 3, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 6594 times:
I understand your position, and I'm not trying to jump the gun -- I'm just curious as to what will happen IF they do go under. I'll leave the discussion on WHETHER they will go under for another day and thread.
UAMAYBACH1239 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 221 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 6564 times:
I think thats one of the reasons US Air was made a member at a quicker pace
than maybe some of the other airlines. It is not cheap to join and yet they are now a member during one of the worst downturns in history.
Perhaps LH figured assets could be absorbed by UA better if they were a member.
L.1011 From United States of America, joined Aug 2001, 2209 posts, RR: 8
Reply 6, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 6449 times:
United is not in a position to acquire US assets. Not only are they still in bankruptcy
(but recovering very well- //// U N I T E D W I L L S T A N D) but they wouldn't want most of the assets. Routes, yes. But the DCA slots aren't all that much use to an airline that has a hub at IAD. Perhaps, UA will acquire LGA and BOS assets and run an IAD-LGA-BOS shuttle and try to cater to the tech businesses around IAD rather than traditional business around DCA. As for DCA, Continental may run a DCA-EWR-BOS shuttle. In that case, there ain't enough room in Skyteam for Delta and Conti. Or, it might jetBlue. As for the fleet, the 319/320/321s and 752s have different engines. UA doesn't fly and doesn't want the 734. UA has already sold its own 762s. UA has a huge 772 fleet, the largest in the world (or did SQ pass them?) so the 333s are not welcome. So unless UA wants some more-than-slightly-used 733s, there's nothing at US. However, the US Express carriers will be snapped up by UA real fast to replace ACA. The 733/734 fleet will end up sold in small batches, except for possibly DL, which may snatch some 733s to (temporarily of course, DL isn't smart enough to plan more than a year ahead these days) fix Delta's chronic not-enough-planes-but-keep-retiring-others-anyway-itis. Some 319s and 320s may find their way to NW. The rest will sell overseas. AA and CO are potential 752 customers, HP also a possiblity. The 762s will likely go to the desert of no return with the others, unless CO is willing to revamp some as a stopgap to the 7E7. The 333s will likely be going one place and one place only: NW.
Cory6188 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 2735 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 6368 times:
I wonder if CO would try to acquire US's 762s at a cheap cost then have the interiors refitted with the new 777-style look to match the rest of their fleet. Pax wouldn't know the difference - after all, NW's DC-9's don't look old inside because they have new 717 interiors.
Contrails From United States of America, joined Oct 2000, 1845 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 6346 times:
I agree completely with 7E72004, US isn't gone yet and with today's Star Alliance announcement they just might squeak by after all. If the worse happened, I would lose 60,000+ miles, which is a big incentive for me to cheer them on (actually, I'm thinking up trips to take this spring and summer, just in case).
As for who would get what in the doomsday scenario, I think AA would grab the DCA-LGA and DCA-BOS slots. Had UA bought US a few years ago this is what had been planned anyway, as I recall. I can see several airlines jumping at the Florida slots, and wouldn't want to bet on who would wind up with what. Who knows what would become of PIT? Would Southwest be interested?
Hopefully we'll never find out the answers to all these questions.
Gr8slvrflt From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 1633 posts, RR: 9
Reply 11, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 6345 times:
I doubt anyone will take them over. Their planes will end up in the desert until they are sold here and there or scrapped. Other carriers will quickly fill the market void they leave and their employees will move on elsewhere. It has all happened before and will doubtless happen again.
Frugalqxnwa From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 565 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 6244 times:
The only asset I see sold as a whole, aircraft and all, is the Shuttle, and I believe the airline in the best position to purchase it would be NW. They already have fairly good operations at DCA, and since they do not have a true hub on the eastern seaboard the shuttle would be a good compliment. The rest of the US assets will be victimized by a feeding frenzy of hungry airline sharks who want to get more marketshare on the east coast. Whatever happens, if US liquidates it will be very fast paced and vicious as to who gets what.
UALFAson From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 848 posts, RR: 3
Reply 14, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 6144 times:
I know people who work for US, so, obviously, I hope it doesn't come down to this. But an interesting scenario to think through anyway.
Just my $0.02s...
AA snaps up DCA-LGA-BOS shuttle routes and gets rid of AAEagle RJs.
LGA & DCA slots get re-allocated amongst all airlines, with B6 getting more than a fair share.
BOS becomes a free-for-all, but mostly AA, UA, & DL beef up operations to pick up the slack. AA and maybe NW start/take over international service.
PIT & CLT hubs disappear. Other airlines cautiously add service to their respective hubs from these cities. WN wins BWI for good.
PHL turns into a bloodbath then eventually becomes low-fare mecca. WN pees in its pants with excitement and makes PHL its east coast LAS. FL and F9 both dramatically increase service. European routes get re-routed to...
--UA adds service out of IAD
--AA adds service out of BOS, maybe keeps some PHL
--CO adds service out of EWR
--DL adds service out of JFK/ATL
--NW adds to AMS
Hard to say what happens to Caribbean routes. I'll guess CO and DL will both beef up operations from current respective hubs. B6 will probably make a move as well. Maybe B6 could turn TPA or CO / KMCO), USA - Florida">MCO into a 2nd hub and run Embraers to Caribbean? (Oooo, I like this idea.)
Wow, was this a morbid topic or what? I think I'm going to go take a shower.
"We hope you've enjoyed flying with us as much as we've enjoyed taking you for a ride."
SANSCOTT744 From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 97 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 5888 times:
What about The dominance the airline has at Charlotte. With Charlotte being one of the fastest growing cities in the country no thanks in part to USAirways, what will become of the 400-600 + departures out of that airport. There is obviously a market there not just for connecting passengers but I doubt that transcon flights and a few international will be scraped all together if the demise of USAirways happens. I could see them cutting service in half out of Charlotte but altogether? hmmm
SANSCOTT744 From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 97 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 5849 times:
It is sad to see how much they(USAirways)have cut back. Living in San Diego I can tell you that back in the day they used to fly 757's between San Diego and Pittsburgh(3xdaily). Now there is only 1 flight a day between SAN and PIT and it is being flown by an A320 but they are adding a second A320 flight this summer probably just for summer only. Charlotte service is a red eye out of SAN(used to be 2xdaily). The PHL flights are still 3 times daily but aircraft have been downgraded.
EAL757 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 5790 times:
There was a post earlier joking about NW's DC-9's...some of you joke; some of you don't. ...let's end it once and for all: NW has the right idea...why? b/c these carriers out there that retire MD-11's that are 10 years old or less; or 762's that are 10-15 years old or less...or carriers who've parked 75's or sold them off because they were too old...well, newsflash folks: Northwest is the smart American consumer that doesn't lease cars and doesn't buy them new when it comes to their DC-9's...they put out just enough to keep them running and they're getting their money's worth. And for the record, the DC-9 is a far better plane than most of these new Airbuses...granted, the technology is older, but the DC-9 was one heck of an airplane.
Tommy767 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 5760 times:
This has been discussed numerous times, but I'll make my .002 prediction!
CLT: CO would probably dive into this market, considering they had GSO for a while. Other than that, the hub would just die or DL and AA would add slots. If CLT dies, I would say NC would be weaker for travel demands, and AA would try to build up RDU even more for more convienient connections.
PHL: UA, DL, AA would all try to build up service, but WN would try to make it a hub.
BWI: Of whats left would go to Airtran or Southwest.
PIT: hmmm. What happened to the HP LCC start up there? Any plans for launch?
LGA/BOS/DCA: Good question. AA has been said to be a potential customer for the shuttle market. I think they would operate on MD-80s.
EMB-170s: United Express
757s: Considering some are ex-eastern, they would go to HP which currently has a few ex-easterns, or would go straight to the desert. They newly delivered ones would maybe go to any US airline that needs 757s.
762s: A user earlier said CO could pick them up and put 777 interiors on them. That is a good idea, but if that never goes through ($$$), off to the desert with thee.
The various Airbus: Jetblue, United, bunch of carriers could pick them up considering that they are new. Spirit maybe?
Jetbluefan1 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 3151 posts, RR: 12
Reply 24, posted (11 years 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 5693 times:
IF US goes under, I think you'll see JetBlue jump on the Shuttle routes. They definitely need to have something attractive like that in their network so they can really become a true "New Yorker" airline. That may be their only chance to launch flights from NYC to DC and BOS. If another airline gets it, then they'll have a hell of a tough time putting a shuttle in place as the markets would be saturated.
PHL would be like BOS, but with a WN. I could imagine WN adding flights to more destinations, F9 increasing service to DEN and LAX, FL adding flights to BOS, Florida, and maybe even to DFW. ATA would probably do some Caribbean, as would JetBlue. DL would probably take over international routes, I would think. But I really do think that there will be A LOT of battles there *IF* US goes under.
PIT would probably have service to JFK from B6, and perhaps some more west coast flights by AA. I can also even see B6 adding a few flights to Florida, but FL is a better candidate.
CLT wouldn't change much either. Same old JetBlue to JFK, ATA with more service to MDW, and perhaps even FL entering the scene. F9 is a good candidate also, but I HIGHLY doubt WN as they have a large amount of flights at nearby RDU.
I change my opinion a lot, but within the last few days I've really come to understand how horrible it is when people lose their jobs. Therefore, I can only hope that US survives and WN gets away from them. They need a miracle, however.
: I don't think anybody wants USAirways, too much debt, when they do finally go under their pax will fly WN and B6. Nature of the biz. WN is going to be
: UALFAson, Tommy767, and JetBlueFan all describe plausible scenarios. A few additional notes: --CLT would be an excellent candidate for WN if US shuts
: If - IF this happens, then I tend to agree with some mix of the legacy and LLC's cherry picking the best routes, and splitting up the regional compani
: If USAir goes under, thousands of dedicated, hardworking employees will lose thier jobs.....! everything else is secondary......
: Well not to get to much into politics too much here, I can see some big time ramifications in the presidential race from all this. Penn. is a huge swi
: Ordpark, Thousands of people lose their jobs, due to downsizing, bad management and competition. It's life, deal with it. USAirways will eventually lo
: Hopefully, United will takeover Charlotte if USAirways does not survive. CLT will compliment United's route network with a hub in the South.
: BOSugaDL I doubt that if there are any USAir employees that are George Bush fans that they will swing over to the left to vote for Kerry if they loose
: Hopefully, United will takeover Charlotte if USAirways does not survive. CLT will compliment United's route network with a hub in the South. A UA take
: If American Airlines does take over the Northeast Shuttle route, you can forget about AA assigning their Super 80 fleet to this route, mostly for nois
: if his "customer"goes under then you can bet that jon ornstein will try to get in the mix as he just pulled a retired co 733 out of gyr, maybe he is t
: NIKV69 - what an incredably callous thing to say!!! I didn't realize that "GOLF PROS" were that insightful......
: Regarding a possible UA takeover of USAirways: It is not likely UA would keep the A330s. But it is likely they would run them for a bit of time at lea
: There are quite a few Carolinas cities, that while not huge markets, have 20-30 flights/day from US. What happens to them??
: Regarding a possible UA takeover of USAirways DIA, Not going to happen. Keep in mind that UA is STILL in Chapter 11. They may aquire some equipment an
: Is it likely that United will acquire the USAirways Shuttle routes if USAirways goes out of business?
: I, like most people on this board, don't think that anyone would want to "take over" US Airways stands now. They have a very inefficient route network
: USAIR has nothing to take over. It has a brand name which is much maligned. It has some gates with a small amount of value especially at DCA and LGA-.
: "DIA, Not going to happen. Keep in mind that UA is STILL in Chapter 11." I agree. But that wasn't my point. I'm simply using the example for most airl
: Parts of USAir would be purchased by other airlines to cover the debts they leave behind, and unfortunately all the other airlines will start making m
: There are quite a few Carolinas cities, that while not huge markets, have 20-30 flights/day from US. What happens to them?? As I said above, combinati
: May God bless that airline. I know several employees of USAir and i pray they dont get the shaft. It would be a sad day IF this ever happens. The empl