777heavy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Posted (9 years 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 4876 times:
In today's newsletter of a.net had been a interesting article about the American airline industry and his future.
Citation from the article: "Put it all together and experts contend a transformation is under way that will make the American airline industry leaner, more efficient, and far more consumer friendly in the future - at least those carriers that survive"
Scooter From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 837 posts, RR: 2 Reply 1, posted (9 years 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 4490 times:
Good god...not another one of these "who will be next?" threads. Everybody has been claiming that airlines would drop like flies after 9/11, but guess what? Two and a half years later, everybody is still chuggin' along.
Tommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6172 posts, RR: 9 Reply 3, posted (9 years 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 4423 times:
I really do not think we will see an airline bankruptcy soon. It would be a long winding road for something such as that to happen. However, the majors still must try as hard as possible, as JetBlue, Airtran ETC. are just becoming stronger.
This I didn't get:
"American Airlines is gearing up for what are expected to be bitter labor negotiations that some analysts believe could make or break the airline."
Does anybody know what the author is refering to? I'm not doubting him, but I'm wondering what exactly is going on that can "Make or break" the airline.
Notice how the the author didn't say anything about CO or NW.
"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
StevenUhl777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 4, posted (9 years 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 4397 times:
Scooter: Well said! I also agree that DL, AA, and UA aren't going anywhere.
One thing that stuck out in my mind as I read the article was about the labor negotiations at American? Didn't they just sign a 5 or 6 year deal last year as part of their effort to avoid a Ch. 11 filing? I know very little about AA, but this seemed odd.
These three airlines mentioned in the thread are going to experience a hell of a lot of turbulence for a while to come, there's no doubt about that. I hope DL and AA can avoid Ch. 11...and that comes from a life-loyal UA man. I personally wish UAL would find a different avenue than pursuing government cheese, but that seems to be their goal. Even if they don't get, I would expect an investor group to step forward that is interested in keeping the carrier together, given the brand name and network. Even if DL files Ch. 11, I don't think it will just "disappear."
I believe at some point there will be some consolidation, but I see it more on the LCC side. Several of these carriers are going to experience growing pains in the next few years, especially B6 and F9. This "expert" at Univ. of Portland forgot to mention that critical fact.
US Airways is a big question mark, but everyone knows that. Still, summer is coming up, and that's the best season. Depending on how well the airlines do, plus the gas price issue, will determine a lot going into the fall/winter season.
7E72004 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 3586 posts, RR: 1 Reply 8, posted (9 years 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 4181 times:
AA--i think they will survive without any real cuts or drastic measures.
DL--I think they will survive, they may have to do some reassessing in some markets but all in all they will be ok.
UA--I think they will survive, whenever they get out of bankruptcy they will have to do some "rearranging."
The airline business is going thru a very difficult time and has been for some time now but i think we will see most of the airlines around. The only one i question is US. But i hope they pull through as well.
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
Freshlove1 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 9, posted (9 years 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 4163 times:
None of them are going anywhere, and yes it is true even the LCC's will have their problems it can only be avoided for so long before it comes up. WN has a F/A contract that I do not believe has been worked out yet, and the pilot contract is due in a little and according to some of the WN pilots I talk to that do our charters they say it will be very interesting when negoation time comes around. As for F9 and B6 Their costs to will rise espically if B6 adds the 190 that they are talking about, and I believe F9 is adding some more Airbuses to the fleet. Unfortunatly this is part of this industry, things are good for awhile then things are bad for awhile it is just the way it is. No airline no matter who they are can avoid this, especially during these times.
4jaded From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 248 posts, RR: 0 Reply 10, posted (9 years 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 4085 times:
Only time will tell but I doubt that any of them will go easily. The only one I see that really has no hope at the moment is US. I think they have just taken tooo long to fix the problems and now the vultures have swooped in to pick at the corpse even before it dies.
Thrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2673 posts, RR: 11 Reply 11, posted (9 years 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 4062 times:
Don't be so positive DL is intact. I am not one to hope that DL will go down, but it seems quite likely DL will need a miracle to get out of their handicapped situation right now. The future of UA and DL is far more questionable than AA's. AA is the only profitable airline among these three, as well as the only one out of bankruptcy (DL is dangerously approaching Ch.11 ). And to narrow it down even more, the future of DL is more questionable than UA's, as UA is almost ready to emerge from bankruptcy. All in all, I expect AA and UA will remain, but DL to me seems the most prone to death right now in the United States.
Thrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2673 posts, RR: 11 Reply 15, posted (9 years 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 3988 times:
Well, Bobnwa, AA is almost profitable. AA has reduced 84% of its losses in an article I read some time ago, a few weeks ago. They are predicted to regain profitability soon. They are certainly in good financial health compared to UA and DL. And they are expected to grow 100% profitable again. See previous a.net topics...look for "AA reduces 84% of its losses"
Flashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2863 posts, RR: 7 Reply 17, posted (9 years 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 3691 times:
Of everyone mentioned, AA has certainly done the most to right itself. They've really pulled a rabbit out of their hat considering how close to Chapter 11 they were.
The problem is that none of the legacy carriers -- not even Continental -- has made the big changes needed to keep from riding the profit/loss roller coaster every time oil prices rise and the economy falls. If you ran a business, wouldn't you want to be in a position to be profitable, or at least breakeven, regardless of what the economy does?
I'll never understand why folks think that the economics of aviation are somehow different. They're not. All of the legacy carriers are public corporations who are there to make a buck. Why they tolerate constant cyclical losses rather than changing their business practices to accomodate different circumstances is beyond me.
Thrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2673 posts, RR: 11 Reply 20, posted (9 years 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 3427 times:
Though I did make betting on which airline is most likely to survive, even one of these three great carriers missing puts a serious dent in my enjoyment of aviation. I hope DL resolves their issues and finds their way to the top again. I was so sad that DL decided to defer any new 777s.
4jaded From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 248 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (9 years 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 3398 times:
Sugar Coating the truth and the reality that there is way too much "legacy" capacity out there to make a viable industry will not change the fact that these companies cannot loose money forever. No one wants to see a "brand Name" go away into the history books but the reality is that it's going to happen. The gravy train of U.S. Gov money flowing to the airlines is about to end. This has only delayed what most people know is going to be a wrenching change in U.S. aviation. I'm sure the Bush administration is doing everything they can behind the scenes to prevent this before the election but regardless it just has to happen. The survivors will be alot more viable going forward.
Cjuniel From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 146 posts, RR: 1 Reply 23, posted (9 years 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 3202 times:
I definitely would not put Delta ahead of United in the "health" department. They have some major issues they need to resolve and soon. There is no way they can wait until that contract is amendable in 2005. The company will be in financial ruin by then.