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AA, DL And UA Who Will Survive?  
User currently offline777heavy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6611 times:

In today's newsletter of a.net had been a interesting article about the American airline industry and his future.

Citation from the article:
"Put it all together and experts contend a transformation is under way that will make the American airline industry leaner, more efficient, and far more consumer friendly in the future - at least those carriers that survive"

here is the Link:
http://www.tribnet.com/24hour/business/story/1373766p-8607488c.html

As aviation experts, what's your opinion? Are the efforts of the airlines to cope with the situation enough, are they well positioned or is every step/restructuring they take for nothing?

777hevy

34 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineScooter From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 854 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6225 times:

Good god...not another one of these "who will be next?" threads. Everybody has been claiming that airlines would drop like flies after 9/11, but guess what? Two and a half years later, everybody is still chuggin' along.

AA, DL, and UA aren't going anywhere.



User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16865 posts, RR: 51
Reply 2, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6173 times:

Of the big six the airlines health are ranked like this, in terms of healthiest to least healthiest.

1.) CO
2.) NWA
3.) AA
4.) DL
5.) UAL
6.) US Airways

#'s 4,5, and 6 are in serious trouble

# 3 (AA) is doing well but buried under a ton ($22 Billion) of debt

CO and NWA would be break even if not small profit this year if gas prices did not sky rocket as they did.

None of the big six can make money with oil at $40.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineTommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 8
Reply 3, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6158 times:

I really do not think we will see an airline bankruptcy soon. It would be a long winding road for something such as that to happen. However, the majors still must try as hard as possible, as JetBlue, Airtran ETC. are just becoming stronger.

This I didn't get:

"American Airlines is gearing up for what are expected to be bitter labor negotiations that some analysts believe could make or break the airline."

Does anybody know what the author is refering to? I'm not doubting him, but I'm wondering what exactly is going on that can "Make or break" the airline.

Notice how the the author didn't say anything about CO or NW.



"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently offlineStevenUhl777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6132 times:

Scooter: Well said! I also agree that DL, AA, and UA aren't going anywhere.

One thing that stuck out in my mind as I read the article was about the labor negotiations at American? Didn't they just sign a 5 or 6 year deal last year as part of their effort to avoid a Ch. 11 filing? I know very little about AA, but this seemed odd.

These three airlines mentioned in the thread are going to experience a hell of a lot of turbulence for a while to come, there's no doubt about that. I hope DL and AA can avoid Ch. 11...and that comes from a life-loyal UA man. I personally wish UAL would find a different avenue than pursuing government cheese, but that seems to be their goal. Even if they don't get, I would expect an investor group to step forward that is interested in keeping the carrier together, given the brand name and network. Even if DL files Ch. 11, I don't think it will just "disappear."

I believe at some point there will be some consolidation, but I see it more on the LCC side. Several of these carriers are going to experience growing pains in the next few years, especially B6 and F9. This "expert" at Univ. of Portland forgot to mention that critical fact.

US Airways is a big question mark, but everyone knows that. Still, summer is coming up, and that's the best season. Depending on how well the airlines do, plus the gas price issue, will determine a lot going into the fall/winter season.


User currently offlineUal777contrail From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6108 times:

Tommy,
everyone wants to be an airline critic, DL has an uphill battle more than any others with the stubbornness of their pilot group.

The only airline I could see being half the size, but still around is US. None of the airlines will be going anywhere anytime soon.


UAL 777 CONTRAIL


User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 6010 times:

Two and a half years later, everybody is still chuggin' along

Tell that to Vanguard, Midway, and National....  Big grin


User currently offlineCaetravlr From United States of America, joined Oct 2000, 909 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 5954 times:

None of them will survive, the roaches will inherit the earth. Oh wait, we meant in the shorter term?

The only airline that I think could even possibly be on the brink of liquidation would be US. Of the others questioned in this thread, I think they will be around for quite a while.



A woman drove me to drink and I didn't have the decency to thank her. - W.C. Fields
User currently offline7E72004 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 3587 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 5916 times:

AA--i think they will survive without any real cuts or drastic measures.

DL--I think they will survive, they may have to do some reassessing in some markets but all in all they will be ok.

UA--I think they will survive, whenever they get out of bankruptcy they will have to do some "rearranging."

The airline business is going thru a very difficult time and has been for some time now but i think we will see most of the airlines around. The only one i question is US. But i hope they pull through as well.



The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
User currently offlineFreshlove1 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 5898 times:

None of them are going anywhere, and yes it is true even the LCC's will have their problems it can only be avoided for so long before it comes up. WN has a F/A contract that I do not believe has been worked out yet, and the pilot contract is due in a little and according to some of the WN pilots I talk to that do our charters they say it will be very interesting when negoation time comes around. As for F9 and B6 Their costs to will rise espically if B6 adds the 190 that they are talking about, and I believe F9 is adding some more Airbuses to the fleet. Unfortunatly this is part of this industry, things are good for awhile then things are bad for awhile it is just the way it is. No airline no matter who they are can avoid this, especially during these times.

User currently offline4jaded From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 248 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 5820 times:

Only time will tell but I doubt that any of them will go easily. The only one I see that really has no hope at the moment is US. I think they have just taken tooo long to fix the problems and now the vultures have swooped in to pick at the corpse even before it dies.

User currently offlineThrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2690 posts, RR: 10
Reply 11, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 5797 times:

Don't be so positive DL is intact. I am not one to hope that DL will go down, but it seems quite likely DL will need a miracle to get out of their handicapped situation right now. The future of UA and DL is far more questionable than AA's. AA is the only profitable airline among these three, as well as the only one out of bankruptcy (DL is dangerously approaching Ch.11 ). And to narrow it down even more, the future of DL is more questionable than UA's, as UA is almost ready to emerge from bankruptcy. All in all, I expect AA and UA will remain, but DL to me seems the most prone to death right now in the United States.


Fly one thing; Fly it well
User currently offlineB4real From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 2642 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 5789 times:

Is it 2005 when the current DL pilot agreement expires? I wonder if DL is trying to tough it out until then and really low-ball them or just outsource all pilot positions @ that time.


B4REAL, spelled like it sounds
User currently offlineThrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2690 posts, RR: 10
Reply 13, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 5755 times:

DL is going to need to cross their fingers to survive. This "pilot agreement" has cost the airline all of its remaining 777 orders  Angry


Fly one thing; Fly it well
User currently offlineBobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6471 posts, RR: 9
Reply 14, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 5755 times:

Thrust,
"AA is the only profitable airline among these three"

Are you reading some financial reports the rest of us do not have access to? Please share these reports with us.


User currently offlineThrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2690 posts, RR: 10
Reply 15, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 5723 times:

Well, Bobnwa, AA is almost profitable. AA has reduced 84% of its losses in an article I read some time ago, a few weeks ago. They are predicted to regain profitability soon. They are certainly in good financial health compared to UA and DL. And they are expected to grow 100% profitable again. See previous a.net topics...look for "AA reduces 84% of its losses"


Fly one thing; Fly it well
User currently offlineDelta767300ER From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2562 posts, RR: 11
Reply 16, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 5467 times:

They all better survive.

-Delta767300ER


User currently offlineFlashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2900 posts, RR: 6
Reply 17, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 5426 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Of everyone mentioned, AA has certainly done the most to right itself. They've really pulled a rabbit out of their hat considering how close to Chapter 11 they were.

The problem is that none of the legacy carriers -- not even Continental -- has made the big changes needed to keep from riding the profit/loss roller coaster every time oil prices rise and the economy falls. If you ran a business, wouldn't you want to be in a position to be profitable, or at least breakeven, regardless of what the economy does?

I'll never understand why folks think that the economics of aviation are somehow different. They're not. All of the legacy carriers are public corporations who are there to make a buck. Why they tolerate constant cyclical losses rather than changing their business practices to accomodate different circumstances is beyond me.


User currently offlineZASpringboks From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 5344 times:

Perhaps we need to be more sensitive about this topic. We should not forget about the nearly quarter of a million people who have careers in these airlines.

Take it easy with the comments by you non airline people out there. These are our families and our future that you are "ranking" and "betting" on. Not so much in this thread but in others.


User currently offlineInnocuousFox From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2805 posts, RR: 14
Reply 19, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5180 times:

"Perhaps we need to be more sensitive about this topic. We should not forget about the nearly quarter of a million people who have careers in these airlines.

Take it easy with the comments by you non airline people out there. These are our families and our future that you are "ranking" and "betting" on. Not so much in this thread but in others."

You may want to write a quick note to the hundreds of market analysts at places like Standard & Poor's. They must be hurting people's feelings left and right.

It's not about the feelings, it's about objective truth. No one wishes ill upon the employees or their families - but that doesn't make the problem go away, does it?



Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
User currently offlineThrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2690 posts, RR: 10
Reply 20, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5162 times:

Though I did make betting on which airline is most likely to survive, even one of these three great carriers missing puts a serious dent in my enjoyment of aviation. I hope DL resolves their issues and finds their way to the top again. I was so sad that DL decided to defer any new 777s.  Crying


Fly one thing; Fly it well
User currently offline4jaded From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 248 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5133 times:

Sugar Coating the truth and the reality that there is way too much "legacy" capacity out there to make a viable industry will not change the fact that these companies cannot loose money forever. No one wants to see a "brand Name" go away into the history books but the reality is that it's going to happen. The gravy train of U.S. Gov money flowing to the airlines is about to end. This has only delayed what most people know is going to be a wrenching change in U.S. aviation. I'm sure the Bush administration is doing everything they can behind the scenes to prevent this before the election but regardless it just has to happen. The survivors will be alot more viable going forward.

User currently offlineBucky707 From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 1028 posts, RR: 3
Reply 22, posted (10 years 4 months 1 day ago) and read 5024 times:

"Is it 2005 when the current DL pilot agreement expires? I wonder if DL is trying to tough it out until then and really low-ball them or just outsource all pilot positions @ that time."

For the record, airline labor contracts in the US never expire. They do become amendable.


User currently offlineCjuniel From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 146 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (10 years 4 months 22 hours ago) and read 4937 times:

I definitely would not put Delta ahead of United in the "health" department. They have some major issues they need to resolve and soon. There is no way they can wait until that contract is amendable in 2005. The company will be in financial ruin by then.

User currently offlineAmerican762 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 175 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (10 years 4 months 22 hours ago) and read 4908 times:

AA has the best chance of survival in this argument. They have done a lot to bring themselves back to security without sacrificing passenger amenity (WELL DONE).

Delta and United will both survive with some good cost-cutting efforts. US Airways is getting close to the "do something drastic time" line.

I wonder how long it will take good old "Workbench" to drop into this and tell us how pathetically AA will fail? I give it 1 day  Smile



Pan Am has a place of its' own. You call it the world, we call it home.
25 Post contains images RayChuang : I think AA will most likely survive. You have to remember that the state of Texas has enough influence in Congress on both Democrat and Republican sid
26 Post contains images Flyguyclt : Until something is done to hike the fares, or we all make $8.00 per hour with no benefits or pensions, or fuel prices come down. ALL Airlines are at r
27 Pw4460 : An airline has got to be the hardest business to run in this country, and maybe the world. An airline is at the mercy of everything from unions, to fu
28 Post contains images Flyguyclt : PW. DL and US in my opinion would be an awful idea. Example. PI and US. They competed against each other. There are too many over lapping routes and C
29 InnocuousFox : Well, the Wall Street consensus on AMR right now is a "Strong Buy". From Standard & Poor's analysis updated 4/30: Overview 30-APR-04 We see revenues g
30 Skymileman : Those three carriers are so big that I doubt they would ever completely tank. That'd be a lot of jobs lost and a lot of service lost, so I think the g
31 StevenUhl777 : I think AA will most likely survive. You have to remember that the state of Texas has enough influence in Congress on both Democrat and Republican sid
32 Flymia : Here are the airlines to stay AA,UA,DL,NW,CO,US. DL US and UA might need alot of cut backs. If DL went down who replaces there hub and International m
33 Post contains images Iowaman : I will be surprised if AA ever gets out of debt........isn't it something like one BILLION dollars interest every year?!?!
34 Pw4460 : DL's pilots are going to have to bite the bullet on this one. I don't see them surviving without the rollback in pay. It would probably help if they c
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