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RJs: The Future Of Mexican Domestic Aviation?  
User currently offlineJmc1975 From Israel, joined Sep 2000, 3313 posts, RR: 15
Posted (10 years 7 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 3669 times:

With Aerolitoral taking on the ERJ-145, can we expect to see RJs in general to take off in popularity among Mexican air travellers? The new RJs open up a plethora of new demestic O&D markets within Mexico as well as to the US & Central America. With Aeromexico's system being fed by Aerolitoral ERJ-145s, I would imagine Mexicana would not be far behind to stay competitve. I can see many weaker markets which are currently served by mainline AM would switch to Aerolitoral RJs....HMO-PHX comes to mind. Also, could this put additional pressure on weaker carriers such as AeroCalifornia and Aviacsa, and possibly put them out of business?






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22 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineGhost77 From Mexico, joined Mar 2000, 5236 posts, RR: 51
Reply 1, posted (10 years 7 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 3637 times:

With Aerolitoral taking on the ERJ-145, can we expect to see RJs in general to take off in popularity among Mexican air travellers?

Continental, American Eagle and Delta Connection are already doing the job very well with RJs in Mexico.

I doubt JR and 6A departing the market because of these new domestic routes served by AM with this new plane. I think JR will be leaving first if they don't start a fleet renovation.

Probably Aerolitoral will give away to AeroCaribe a few more Saab's 340s and Aerolitoral will confirm the 25 more options they got for the E145. And Aerolitoral will return their 20 Saab's to lessor. But nothing else its going to happen.

There are many things that should be done in Mexico, but I don't see them happening.

We need more RJ's... and wide bodies........

Ricardo APM  Smile




Ricardo Morales - flyAPM - ¡No es que maneje rapido, solo estoy volando lento!
User currently offlineBritmex From Mexico, joined Nov 2000, 207 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (10 years 7 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 3601 times:

I see more RJ`s coming also for Aeromar. However the only way AeroCalifornia would remain competitive is with RJ`s. It is their future. Their DC-9 fleet is old and unless they hush-kit them all, they will not be allowed to fly in Mexico after 2005. I see JR operating a small fleet of Canadairs or EMB-170`s. If they insist on competing against AM, MX, Azteca and Aviacsa they will go bankrupt sooner or later. They need to refocus their market to northern Mexico where their service is really valuable for many of the region`s cities. Also a small fleet of turboprops (Jetstreams or SAAB 2000`s) would be nice for serving smaller airports like Mulegè, Guerrero Negro or Ensenada. There is a huge touristic gold mine hidden in the Baja. It is a wonderful place that must be available for all the world to discover. Just ask any of the American tourist that drive or fly all the way down to Los Cabos.

I`m still wondering also why no Mexican airline has ordered a 717 (save for the failed Vuelamex). It is a very good aircraft for serving regional markets in Mexico and even Central America, like CUN-GUA or MID-HAV.
All I know so far is that AM didn`t like it because of its size. Now the smaller aircraft we are going to operate once the 9`s are gone is the MD-87 which is a stop-gap until more 37`s are delivered. Maybe JR coul then take the 87`s

Albrecht

ps ONLY FOUR 9`s left in AM! Countdown to extinction....



Aeromexico, la linea aerea que va para arriba
User currently offlineEddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7633 posts, RR: 42
Reply 3, posted (10 years 7 months 2 days ago) and read 3540 times:

Look forward to seeing all of AM's DC-9's gone from the fleet. In fact, I would love to see all the Dogs and Mad Dogs give way to brand-new 73W's and 738's.

Anyway, it would be interesting if JR decided to become an all-Embraer operator. I guess this is very far from reality since JR probably does not and will not have the money to do so. But imagine a lineup of ERJ-170's and -190's in JR colors (with a new livery design please).



Next flights: MEX-GRU (AM 77E), GRU-GIG (JJ A320), SDU-CGH (G3 73H), GRU-MEX (JJ A332).
User currently offlineBritmex From Mexico, joined Nov 2000, 207 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (10 years 7 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 3502 times:

Well the newest MD`s are staying until 2010 at least but the others are leaving as soon as the 800`s start to arrive. AM is really impressed by all the savings they have with the 737NG`s.
JR will have to downsize to survive. That`s why I suggested to stick only to their regional market and drop destinations like MID. Although some of their 9`s are hushkitted (about 4 of them) all are old and fuel consumption is one of its weak points. They may not have the money to change all their fleet at once but if Mr. Arechiga is smart enough, maybe an inital fleet of Canadairs or EMB-170`s will bring more curious customers.

Anyway, one of the sad things about JR is that the owners are kind of "old school" businessmen. Like the ones that used to wipe out their competence with the helping hand of local governments and corrupt tactics. Just remember JR was started long before the deregualtion in Mexico. They tend to think that "someone" will help them out of the crisis with strike of a pen. Sadly they don`t have a long term mission or goal and the only thing that keeps them alive is the local support of the BCS government. A sad thing since in the post I wrote earlier I satated how could JR turn itself into a very successful regional carrier like Tyrolean, DLT or Air Littoral. However JR management decided to spend money in new costly Italian uniforms for their crews while they don`t have enough spare parts for their DC-9`s...

britmex



Aeromexico, la linea aerea que va para arriba
User currently offlineJmc1975 From Israel, joined Sep 2000, 3313 posts, RR: 15
Reply 5, posted (10 years 7 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 3495 times:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears that AeroCalifornia doesn't even have a bonifide website. That's pretty pathetic! I've also heard numerous horror stories about their operational performance. When America West did their ground handling in PHX in the early '90s, they reported an instance when JR ferried a DC9-10 to La Paz on one engine!


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User currently offlineAs739x From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 6196 posts, RR: 24
Reply 6, posted (10 years 7 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 3469 times:

Maybe MX can contract some regional jets from Mesa.  Laugh out loud


ASSFO



"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
User currently offlineGhost77 From Mexico, joined Mar 2000, 5236 posts, RR: 51
Reply 7, posted (10 years 7 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3426 times:

I think JR once again will be able to survive!

From the 22 Dc9s they are currently flying; 11 are -10/14/15s and the other half are -30s. Only 7 frames where hushkitted. Now in the last months they have installed HK3 to all their 30s. So they'll have to face out the tiny 15s.

Justplanes.com once published that JR bought 2 ex. Air Tran frames that will make 13/30s. And I've heard rumors that all AeroMexico's Dc9s std have been offered to JR.

Time is running and so far they have only 7 more months to renew, downsize or die. It's going to be really interesting to see what will happen to this airline. Perhaps a merger with Aviacsa?! Just imagine a stronger Aviacsa with a fleet close to 50 aircraft! Not bad...

Ricardo APM  Smile




Ricardo Morales - flyAPM - ¡No es que maneje rapido, solo estoy volando lento!
User currently offlineEddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7633 posts, RR: 42
Reply 8, posted (10 years 7 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 3370 times:

Ghost, would it be wise for 6A, a financially healthy company looking for the best way to create value, to merge with a company with obsolete aircraft and poor financial fundamentals like JR? In any case they could just buy from JR some routes, landing rights, slots, the least crappy aircraft (is there any?)and other valuable assets without getting all of the junk. Remember that the merger of two companies will not necessarily yield a much stronger company, especially when one of the merger partners is in such dire straits. Of course 6A could structure the merger in a manner such that the JR losses are used to the advantage of the merged company for tax purposes, but that would probably not be sufficient to justify the acquisition of such a troubled company and the negative consequences of doing so.

So very nice, but no.



Next flights: MEX-GRU (AM 77E), GRU-GIG (JJ A320), SDU-CGH (G3 73H), GRU-MEX (JJ A332).
User currently offlineGhost77 From Mexico, joined Mar 2000, 5236 posts, RR: 51
Reply 9, posted (10 years 7 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3357 times:

Edude,

I think in the long term would benefit 6A. Aviacsa in their early days they start to dominate the south. Now, being based at MTY they have grow and entered new markets. Remember when 6A launched flights to MIA from MTY? Everybody was comparing 6A to AA and people here forecast a failure on the route. Now just look at them; still flying the route and with good load factors.

Merging JR would be expanding to the Pacific which I think 6A have a very little presence. About the aging Dc9s, I think it wouldn't be a problem to return them all to the lessors. Or in case JR owes them, they could sell them to companies in Central and South America or Africa.

For the first days or at least 2 months after the merger you could still fly those Dc9s with JR crews. But at the same time you are training pilots and f/a´s and getting more 737s for replacement. I don't know if 6A and JR staff got similar salaries but I would accept and prefer to stay with 6A than going out to the streets.

Aviacsa would be risking a lot.... but I think at the very end they would have success. It would be amazing to see something like this happening in the mexican aviation. I don't remember of any big merger before. Does anybody knows any situation like this before in our aviation?

Ricardo APM  Smile




Ricardo Morales - flyAPM - ¡No es que maneje rapido, solo estoy volando lento!
User currently offlineEddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7633 posts, RR: 42
Reply 10, posted (10 years 7 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3347 times:

I understand very well your point. My concern is that the assumption of JR's liabilities by 6A as a result of a merger might have very negative consequences for 6A. To put it in lay-man terms, it might equate to 6A shooting itself on the foot.

As I said before, if there were an interest of 6A to enlarge via the addition of JR's routes, 6A could simply buy some of JR's assets (including the routes, slots and landing rights) without buying the whole company. Again, the word merger has a very sweet sound, but the concept involves acquiring not just the good side of a business, but the dark side too.

You also ask if anyone remembers a comparable situation in Mexico. What about the acquisition of MX by AM? Or the acquisition of a stake in AeroPerú by AM? Or CINTRA's initial public offering?




Next flights: MEX-GRU (AM 77E), GRU-GIG (JJ A320), SDU-CGH (G3 73H), GRU-MEX (JJ A332).
User currently offlineBritmex From Mexico, joined Nov 2000, 207 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (10 years 7 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3333 times:

JR is really in debt with the Mexican authorities and the airport owners for landing fees, fuel and even IMSS and other duties. The only reason it is still alive is because JR feeds the local Baja California economy. They fly many routes which were dropped by AM many years ago. Otherwise places like Mulegè, Loreto, or Cd Victoria would be almost without airline service. Anyway, any serious businessman (a TRUE entrepreneur and not a "cacique") could use JR`s assets (routes, and maintenance hangars in LAP) and transform it in a very succesful regional carrier with Canadairs or Embraers and as I posted earlier, with turboprops for serving GYM and other small airports.

britmex

ps Where is the Richard Branson of Mexican aviation? YUUUUUUUHUUUUUU



Aeromexico, la linea aerea que va para arriba
User currently offlineAnthsaun From Mexico, joined Apr 2004, 544 posts, RR: 3
Reply 12, posted (10 years 7 months 1 day ago) and read 3318 times:

I agree on the issue nobody wants a merger with JR. The only good thing JR has to offer is its northern Mexico network. About buying JR it seems not a very attractive deal because it means acquiring a mass debt and I do not think a Mexican Richard Branson would get it; instead of that, maybe a Mexican Bill Gates would buy it at a really low price in order to kill it and then start a new one from the ashes.


Over 80 years in business say a lot about success
User currently offlineBritmex From Mexico, joined Nov 2000, 207 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (10 years 7 months 1 day ago) and read 3315 times:

Actually that`s my proposal:

Liquidate JR and start something else like Aeromexico did in 1988. Actually the name Aero California is all right (Aero Baja would sound strange, it is like a Mitsubishi Pajero or a Chevy No-va!) and the public still like it. Yet a new business plan is needed together with a complete makeover.

However we are losing the point; RJ`s in Mexico.
I think the idea will catch on after Litoral and many more airlines will start operating them. Remember that regional aviaion in Mexico was non-existent until Aeromar was started. Earlier attempts like Aeronaves Alimentadoras and SAE were killed because of inept directors and bureaucracy. A sad thing indeed. RA is still young and since it lacks some glamour most CEO`s associate with large airlines. Yet Aeromar is making money......

britmex



Aeromexico, la linea aerea que va para arriba
User currently offlineAF022 From France, joined Dec 2003, 2174 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (10 years 7 months 17 hours ago) and read 3292 times:

RJs are great for good yield thinly served routes. Trouble with Mexican aviation, fares are far too low to generate enough revenue to offset the cost of ownership. DC9s might be old & rickety, but they are cheap to own. Maintenance might be relatively high, but not as high as the cost of ownership for the ERJs

User currently offlineGhost77 From Mexico, joined Mar 2000, 5236 posts, RR: 51
Reply 15, posted (10 years 6 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 3230 times:

Eddiedude,

I get your point! For a moment I totally delete from my mind all those huge debts JR has. Maybe, part of the solution would be to see JR dropping frequencies and then 6A could request to the mexican government approval to fly routes JR had.

Meanwhile check post 'Aerocalifornia' by A320319318! Very interesting news...

Ricardo APM  Smile




Ricardo Morales - flyAPM - ¡No es que maneje rapido, solo estoy volando lento!
User currently offlineAeroMexico767 From Mexico, joined Jul 2001, 23 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (10 years 6 months 4 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3190 times:

Ghost77 u're right!!! Co Express, American Eagle and Delta are doin' great with RJ's in Mexico... here in Aguascalientes (AGU) we've 4 daily RJ's (2 CO, 2 AE) and I must said is better to have 2 different schedule options with RJ's in medium load factor routes instead of probably 1 flight in a bigger A/C...

Mexican Airlines should bet 4 RJ's!!!


User currently offlineMexicana757 From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 3047 posts, RR: 28
Reply 17, posted (10 years 6 months 4 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 3164 times:

I think that the regional airplanes would do good in the Mexican airline industry but there is always something blocking the path, money. The Mexican airlines don't have the money to buy or lease these aircraft. Regional jets would be successful in Mexico if the airlines decided to put them on the routes that would make money.

If Aerolitoral plans to replace all of its Saab 340 fleet with ERJ 145s I hope this aiplane tickles their feet and open new routes within Mexico and to the U.S.

I agree with those that said RJs would be good for Aero California. They are the right size for the airline. It would lower their maintanance and would save a lot of money on fuel. But the airline lacks the funds to get RJs. Their CEO needs a kick a swift kick in the a** maybe that will make him think in the future of his airline. If he just has short term goals from day to day for his airline, someone sooner or later will eat them alive.

AeroMexico767:
How many flights a day fly into and out of AGU? And what it is the state of their terminal? Is the terminal as big as those of ZCL and MLM? From what I remember those terminals are small. I have been to Aguascalientes but have never flown into. When I travel within Mexico I always get to Aguascalientes by car or bus.


User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 8037 posts, RR: 5
Reply 18, posted (10 years 6 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 3120 times:

It think there is one potential issue people are forgetting about when flying airliners in Mexico: we have serious issues of hot and high airports.

The central plateau of Mexico (where most of the Mexican population lives) is at a pretty high altitude, and the location of MEX airport is around 7,400 feet. Because of that, you need planes that can safely operate in hot and high conditions; I sometimes wonder why there hasn't been more 757-200 sales to Mexican airlines, considering that the 752 is an excellent plane for such conditions.

As for Aero California, I think they should phase out their aging DC-9's (after all, they haven't been anywhere as well-maintained as NW's fleet!  Smile ) and replace them with a combination of Embraer ERJ-145/Embraer 170 planes for routes to other parts of Mexico and the USA from Baja California, plus refurbished EMB-120's for routes within Baja California.


User currently offlineAeroMexico767 From Mexico, joined Jul 2001, 23 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (10 years 6 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 3077 times:

Hey Mexicana757!

I think there's an average of 24-25 flights a day (into and out), SCHEDULED service to DFW, IAH, LAX, MEX, BJX, MTY and TIJ... some charter service to MCO, LAS and CUN during the year... not compared to MEX or MTY service but there's a small city down here!!

The terminal is small... and I must said Tuesdays, Thursdays and saturdays is a nightmare here because flights from IAH, DFW and LAX arrives almost at the same time, and International arrivals terminal is very small, just with 2 customs modules...
so now ya can imagine!!  Big grin

and also a little boring... just ERJ's, DC9's, Mad dogs... and now 737-700w!!


User currently offlineFly727 From Mexico, joined Jul 2003, 1789 posts, RR: 19
Reply 20, posted (10 years 6 months 4 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3053 times:

Many have appointed the critical situation of Aerocalifornia which unfortunately it is true., however ALL of you have forgotten the tremendous support those fellow entrepreneurs have within the Pacific. Guys, read the fine print....

Many years ago, it faced a similar situation in which a HUGE amount of money was badly needed from one day to the other in order to keep the airline flying. I don't need to say it but the MONEY was there. Besides, running like maniac seems to be the standard practice when directing their financial situation, not a new thing with them. Expect things with Aerocalifornia. It is a juicy, pricey, goody market no one is willing to loose.

RM  Smile



There are no stupid questions... just stupid people!
User currently offlineDc1030 From Mexico, joined Oct 2001, 10 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (10 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3011 times:

Hi,
Yes I think ERJ-145's or similar aircrafts would be a nice option for small airlines in Mexico.
Here is how an ERJ-145 would look in a Magnicharters scheme.
http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinerphotos/search/photo_search.php?id=00002142
Thanks
Jorge Rocafort


User currently offlineJoseMEX From Mexico, joined Oct 1999, 1539 posts, RR: 24
Reply 22, posted (10 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 2957 times:

Very nice work you did there, Jorge. I happen to like the Magnicharters logo a lot, even more so than AM's.

it looks like out of a comic book (and I mean that as a compliment to whoever designed that logo). It looks modern yet doesn't look cheap (in my very humble opinion), compared to other low-cost carriers.

BTW you should post here more often (six posts in almost three years? Big grin). The more the merrier!

[Edited 2004-05-31 00:10:19]

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