Rj85fan From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 4 posts, RR: 0 Posted (8 years 11 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 3550 times:
Has anyone heard of any progress regarding these programs? The latest I knew was that the 728 program was bought by a Chinese investment group named D'Long. They were supposedly ramping up production with a first flight at the end of 2004 or early 2005.
I also have read that there has been a go ahead for the Rekof (Foker spelled backwards) 100 and 70 with a ramp up of production and have not heard of any news lately.
Anybody out there with information it would be great to hear any updates on both programs.
Greg From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0 Reply 1, posted (8 years 11 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 3500 times:
Ok ok ok...I'll beat Planemaker to the punch.
728? Most likely dead....only on life support. After spending only $10M for the design and prototype...they are moving very s-l-o-w-l-y in doing anything else with it. I'd say it's likely a no-go...unless it gets sold again....
70/100? Just as dead. Aftern much ado about nothing---there appears to be a lot of talk which has amounted to...well...nothing! Fokker loyalists talk of a rosy future. Analysts agree...nothing will happen.
Mikey711MN From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1380 posts, RR: 8 Reply 2, posted (8 years 11 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 3482 times:
Slightly off-topic, but what about the 428? I've seen that mentioned in a few other threads and know nothing about it...
AGrayson514 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 396 posts, RR: 2 Reply 4, posted (8 years 11 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 3433 times:
I'd love some saab opperators to switch to the 328Jet. That'd be kinda nice, though I kinda like the Saab 340. Only been on Midwest's 328Jets, they were nice.
Flying-Tiger From Germany, joined Aug 1999, 4111 posts, RR: 39 Reply 5, posted (8 years 11 months 3 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 3348 times:
Greg, I´ve the info that AvCraft will bring back the 428JET within the next two years as several customers have expressed quite a bit of interest in mixed 328/428JET fleets.
428JET: a 44-seat strech of the 328JET, origianlly scheduled for EIS in 2004, however due to financial problems FD had to cancel this bird. Orders came from ACA, Skyway Airlines and Air Alps.
LifelinerOne From Netherlands, joined Nov 2003, 1880 posts, RR: 8 Reply 6, posted (8 years 11 months 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3265 times:
Well,
Rekkof is still working on restarting the production of the F70NG. As I wrote earlier, the F100NG can only be made when production of the F70NG is well under way.
It is said that several Letter of Intents are in place with several airlines and that launch will be announced at Farnborough. Although I'm a little sceptic about the program, I do hope that it will revive planebuilding in our little country.
Planemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 5481 posts, RR: 34 Reply 7, posted (8 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 3167 times:
Thank you, Greg!!
For those who are not familiar with the many threads about both firms, Greg's post is indeed correct. Aside from the multitude of logistical hurdles of getting both series into production, the most daunting hurdle is financing. Not just to get the aircraft into production but, even more important, vendor sales financing. As an example, one just has to look at the acrimonious WTO spat between Bombardier and Embraer to see how critical vendor financing is for aircraft sales!!
Re: the 428 - unfortunately it isn't going to happen for all of the same reasons as above, and more!
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
Greg From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0 Reply 8, posted (8 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 3152 times:
So, are we seeing the quick life, maturity, and death of the 70 seater? All the info I see (and this is with Avitas, AWST, and FI) has the 90-115 seater being the most cost effective as a standalone product.
Planemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 5481 posts, RR: 34 Reply 10, posted (8 years 11 months 3 weeks ago) and read 3121 times:
"Is the love of the small regional jet over?"
Greg, as you said not too long ago, the industry doesn't make "sense". Going forward, small RJ sales may be dry for several years to come if several possible (probable?) scenarios play out. The most critical being liquidation of one or more US carriers. If FLYi doesn't make it, for example, there will be a lot of used RJs available. Furthermore, if you add US Airways' or UAL's RJs there will not only be a huge glut of RJs on the market but reduced competition will also depress new RJ sales. So airline liquidation would (will?) serve a double blow. BTW, several analyst commented today that Delta will more than likely not escape Chap. 11 this year even with the pilot concessions. Delta is the largest operator of BBD's RJs. As I mentioned in the other post, BBD's looks very grim!!
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
Greg From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0 Reply 11, posted (8 years 11 months 3 weeks ago) and read 3100 times:
Bombardier has hit some bad times, but they are fairly tenatious. And they are not actually overextended in terms of debt (of course this is based on 15 billion in revenue) Their dismal stock price is mostly due to no earnings.
This is not, however, good news when you need a few billion to develop their NCAP.....
As I think we've all agreed, nobody is going to let EMB have the entire market....
Likely we'll have to wait and see what the next few year's brings....
Planemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 5481 posts, RR: 34 Reply 12, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 3066 times:
For the past three years it is has been all downhill for BBD - and the future doesn't show any uptick! As you pointed out, where is the $1.5- to $2-billion funding for the NCAP going to come from? Particularly when BBD's RJ sales have been decreasing - especially their cash cow CRJ-200: Forecast sales this year is 100 which is down from the 120 originally planned (and the 152 of one year ago). Next year's forecast is for only 75-85 units (and very possibly fewer).
Furthermore, all major debt rating agencies have pegged BBD debt at one notch just above junk bond status; there is a $2.8-billion pension deficit; a tangible book value of negative 30 cents per share; and 1st Qtr. loss was $174-million.
With the "proposed" NCAP they have indeed totally abandoned the 87- to 100-seat market to Embraer (the NCAP is a 100- to 135-seat in two class design and will compete directly with Boeing and Airbus). Moreover, the CRJ-900 has only one customer and none other on the horizon.
When you then add in the financial woes of BBD's customers, it is not just a matter of BBD being tenacious. The future looks very grim indeed!
[Edited 2004-06-07 18:58:23]
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
Greg From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0 Reply 13, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 3054 times:
Again, we'll see.
Most companies can run as 'junk' for many years. Pan Am did it for nearly 10---TWA for fifteen. Of course, they are not manufacturing.
AA bonds have been listed as junk for just over six---which includes two years of record profits.
Hopefully, they'll snap out of it. Canadians have a way or 'rescuing' their companies--(you can argue whether this is fair)--particularly those with exports.
Planemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 5481 posts, RR: 34 Reply 14, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 3025 times:
I am not saying that they will be out of business any time soon (or at all) but that the future looks very grim - where are there any signs of a positive outlook??? I am sure that you can agree that it is not just a matter of hoping that they snap out of it when: a) your order backlog is decreasing and there are no significant new sales on the horizon; b) you have completely abandoned a market segment to your mortal competitor; c) you have no new product and "might" develop a new aircraft that would compete directly with Boeing and Airbus; and d) several of your largest customers were, are in, or are threatening to go Chap. 11.
Re: "Canadians have a way or 'rescuing' their companies", given the state of the airline industry (with a projected loss of $10-billion this year to add to existing woes) the Canadian government can't force airlines to buy CRJs, especially if there is a glut of used RJs on the market if airlines start to go under or consolidate. Furthermore, BBD has already been the largest beneficiary of government corporate welfare in Canada and the government has already demonstrated that there will not be any more handouts (of course that could potentially change if the Liberal party is re-elected but it is still extremely unlikely to happen).
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
Greg From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0 Reply 15, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 2998 times:
Wow...you are really down on Bombardier! Who DO you work for? It's almost like you want them to go under.....(hmmmmmm).
No, I don't see them out of business at all. Like all businesses this one is cyclical too.
For every argument you make, there is another side.
But everyone will have to weight out this current glut in the market. Both Airbus and Boeing have had tough years too. And Embraer has terrible years as well.
Later.
Planemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 5481 posts, RR: 34 Reply 16, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 2987 times:
I'm only stating facts - you should read what some of the analysts and financial press has to say after BBD's AGM. There is no argument that the airline industry has been permantly changed by the LCCs and many industry analysts are prognosticating that only 4 legacy carriers will survive (some even believe there will only be 3). The end result will be a lot of aircraft parked in Arizona. Obviously the RJ glut will not discriminate and will impact ERJ sales negatively as well - and that is why I also don't see the FD428 or the F-70 making it. As you know, EMB's only saving "grace" is that they were lucky to be able to design 4 new aircraft for slightly less than $1-billion. And one could argue that if it were not for Dornier initially approaching Lufthansa and Crossair with the 728/928, there might well not have been the impetus for Embraer to design their 4 all-new aircraft. And on top of it all, they luck out and end up with no "direct" competition in the 87- to 100-seat market! FYI, the financial press has already speculated that perhaps it would be best for BBD to split up into two seperate companies - Transport and Aerospace (the better to sell-off the aerospace division???) In several ways I believe that the NCAP decision is to BBD what the 7E7 was to Boeing. However, if BBD goes ahead with the NCAP they will be directly taking on both Boeing and Airbus (and what do you give those odds?)
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
Greg From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0 Reply 17, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 2945 times:
No, I think the NCAP is likely financial suicide unless they launch, certify, and delivery before 2008...while Boeing and Airbus are entrenched with the 380 and 7e7.
Likelihood of that happening...hmmmm....about 0%
Anyway...argue what you want...the 319 and 73G are solid, mature, products. They are not in need of replacement till at least 2012-2015.
Aviopic From Netherlands, joined Mar 2004, 2681 posts, RR: 46 Reply 18, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 2921 times:
Rj85fan take my word for it, new Fokker F70 will be announced at Farnborough.
All studies have been completed and as I am told missing calibers(wings) are under construction, request for a building permit is issued at Lelystad.
There are a lot more indications(which I can't talk about) that it's all settled and done.
Production will start in 2005 and first delivery in 2006.
Just wait for another month till Farnborough in July.
I suspect many people will be surprised.... Except the A.net forum readers of course.
Willem
The truth lives in one’s mind, it doesn’t really exist
Planemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 5481 posts, RR: 34 Reply 19, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 2906 times:
Yes... we agree on the low probability of the NCAP (gee... if they could only get someone to cover the $2.8-billion pension deficit). However, taking all the negative factors enumerated in the thread into account, I am just curious on what you base your belief (or hope) that BBD can "snap" out of it (and reclaim its "former glory" [my expression]when the stock was up around $27 and not the current $4.50). Seriously, which airlines do you see ordering (and getting financing) the CRJ200 and CRJ700 in significant numbers beyond the existing, somewhat shakey backlog?
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
Greg From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0 Reply 20, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2884 times:
I have no interest in Bombardier at all, personally, but I think they will pull out of it and survive just fine. While their stock currently reflects poor earnings---companies in far worse shape have snapped back and prospered.
Just curious, but why the hatred of BBD? Every post ends in how their future looks grim, bleak, terrible, etc.
I'll make the assumption that you likely work for a competitor---in which case, your opinions are likely not the most objective.
FoxDelta From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 124 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2860 times:
Hello everybody,
Planemaker, there is a strong rumor that Air Nostrum (Iberia Regional) will get 10 CRJ900 under extremely good favorable terms so that the 86-seater gets a lift in sales numbers. So far it has secured only 1 operator... BBD wants it flying in Europe too.
Planemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 5481 posts, RR: 34 Reply 22, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 2818 times:
Greg,
No hatred at all. In fact, hatred is an extremely strong adjective and not only does it absolutely not apply, but it has no relevancy whatsoever to any of my posts. I am really surprised that you would say something like that.
What I have posted isn't an "opinion" as I am not inventing any of the facts on BBD's poor financial status -- the information is all there in the BBD Annual Report, 1st Qtr Report, web site, financial news and analyst reports (and they are the ones saying that BBD's future is "grim").
Your saying "I think they will pull out of it and survive just fine" without basing it on any thing is just wishful thinking, which you are entitled to. But it doesn't contribute anything to the discussion when all the the financial and industry facts point in the exact opposite direction.
At the end of it all, all I have done is provide factual backup to your earlier post: "All the info I see (and this is with Avitas, AWST, and FI) has the 90-115 seater being the most cost effective as a standalone product. Is the love of the small regional jet over?"
From Saturday's news:
Smaller jets lift profits, but have airlines overindulged?
Independence Air, meanwhile, represents the reinvention of Atlantic Coast Airlines, which was unable to renegotiate an existing agreement to fly regional jets for United Airlines Inc. It launches June 16 from Washington Dulles International Airport.
"ACA has the right idea because they know there's no future in flying 50-seaters for United," said Michael Boyd, an aviation consultant in Evergreen, Colo.
Once the darling of fleet planners everywhere, 50-seat regional jets face an uncertain future as assets for airlines, said Mr. Boyd, who thinks major carriers have bought far too many of the planes.
"There's not going to be any aftermarket for 50-seaters in a few years," he predicted. "They're not going to be able to sell them."
In a sign of the glut of 50-seaters, Mr. Boyd said, United had no problem immediately replacing the 87 planes that will now fly the Independence livery with other aircraft from other regional carriers hungry for business.
As with any start-up airline, Independence Air faces steep odds to stay aloft for long, analysts said.
Some discounters have already stepped back from relying on regional jets. Orlando-based AirTran Airways Corp. quietly ended its regional jet partnerships this year. Officials at America West Airlines have said they have too many regional jets.
Extract from The Dallas Morning News
09:19 AM CDT on Saturday, June 5, 2004
By ERIC TORBENSON
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
Greg From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0 Reply 23, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 2785 times:
I'll stand by my comments...looking back you do a fair amount of BBD bashing---with some delight.
But then again, you are perfectly entitlted to your opinion.
As I said earlier, I suspect you work for a competitor.
Planemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 5481 posts, RR: 34 Reply 24, posted (8 years 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 2785 times:
Greg, BBD financial facts are facts, and are not opinions as you continue to say -- the info all comes from BBD, financial news or industry analysts. Tellier himself said that the CRJ-200 rate was dropping to 75-85 next year. It is a fact that the BBD stock has gone from $27 to $4 in the last 2 years. So how can repeating BBD's numbers from the financial report or quotes from the CEO be construed as "BBD bashing"?
If anything, you can accuse me of bashing Rekkof as my comments are mainly based on speculation and industry inference. But not BBD -- all the info is easily available and verifiable.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
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