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Who Will Virgin America Impact The Most?  
User currently offlineLono From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 1335 posts, RR: 1
Posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 5794 times:

Based in SFO.... What airline do you think the new LCC Virgin America will impact the most....

I'm thinking Alaska Airlines will be impacted the most....


Wally Bird Ruled the Skys!
40 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offline777ER From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 12165 posts, RR: 17
Reply 1, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 5694 times:
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If US Airways have many flights from SFO then Virgin America will shorely impact on US the most and it could even sadly be the final nail in the US coffin. If Virgin compete on US routes then it will impact US the hardest as they are still very fragile.

User currently offlineAzul320 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 281 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 5652 times:

US barely has a presence at SFO with very few routes to the eastcoast. Vigin America would most likely affect United's large scale operation at SFO. If low fare start up Vigin America were to actually get up and running and be known for an on-time perfomance they would have to face the hurrendous delays I hear about out of SFO. WN backed out of SFO to OAK many years ago because of that.


Excuse me, while I kiss the sky
User currently offlineNWDC10 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 5560 times:

United Airlines will be impacted the very most. Robert NWDC10

User currently offlineAeroflot777 From Russia, joined Mar 2004, 3008 posts, RR: 26
Reply 4, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 5545 times:

I live in SF, so it will impact me for sure  Big grin
So, now for the serious answer. I think that the airline that will have the hardest time will be United because of its hub.
Aeroflot777


User currently offlineBestWestern From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2000, 7152 posts, RR: 57
Reply 5, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 5532 times:

Expect Virgin America to head West from SFO also - expect Hawaii operators to be impacted.

Am I right in saying no Low cost airline flies to the Islands?



The world is really getting smaller these days
User currently offlineBoeingBus From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1596 posts, RR: 17
Reply 6, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 5477 times:

I believe JetBlue mostly and other LCC will be impacted most - Both JetBlue and Virgin have the same image of frills with low cost, both airlines will serve SFO and New York as their hubs.... Also, Virgin America will serve premium markets and no secondary cities. Hawaii sounds interesting...can the A320 make it out there???

There are folks no matter what will only travel the majors(ME!!!), and those of you who don't have NO loyalty whatsoever and they will go after price of LCC.



Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
User currently offlineChrisNH From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 4116 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 5467 times:

I think TED and Virgin will go head-to-head, much like Song and JetBlue are now. In fact, in that battle JetBlue 'seems' to be winning, with Song in a holding pattern (at best) while B6 ramps up this fall at LGA and BOS.

Virgin USA perhaps picked SFO as their operational HQ because to add another LCC into the nearly-saturated east coast quagmire is a recipe for certain failure. Better to get your feet wet in a region not yet saturated with LCCs, and that means the west coast. And that means a showdown at high noon with TED ('A part of UniTED,' as the tag line likes to say).

Chris in NH


User currently offlineBestWestern From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2000, 7152 posts, RR: 57
Reply 8, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 5456 times:

High Density A320's operate 4hr+ flights ex London (LGW - Canary Islands for example) on a regular basis - so I presume there would be no issue with Hawaii.


The world is really getting smaller these days
User currently offlineSevenHeavy From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 1156 posts, RR: 9
Reply 9, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 5380 times:

Hi,

I hope I am wrong but I seriously doubt that Virgin America would enter the west coast-Hawaii markets. The current legacy carriers that serve these routes (predominantly AA, UA, DL) have a hard time operating these routes at a profit. Flights to the islands are often used purely as a means of relieving frequent flyers of their miles!. There is also the added expense associated with operating long overwater segments (US west coast - Hawaii is the longest oceanic sector in the world where there is absolutely no land in between). I believe the nearest diversion if the Hawaiian islands are below minimums is Midway and this obviusly means large reserves of fuel need to be carried. An A320 could operate the 5 hour sector but could not carry the required contingency fuel without a severe payload penalty. AQ uses B73G's but these aircraft have slightly better range than the A320.

To get back to the original question Virgin America will, if successfully marketed and grown have the biggest impact on TED and UA from SFO and also on Jetblue because of their presence in OAK (and SJC!). To a lessor extent they could also take a slice out of Southwest and Alaska in certain markets.

In a nutshell they will put the squeeze on any carrier operating to the bay on routes in which they compete.

Regards,

SevenHeavy



So long 701, it was nice knowing you.
User currently offlineAa717driver From United States of America, joined Feb 2002, 1566 posts, RR: 13
Reply 10, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 5273 times:

The HNL alternate issue isn't an issue. Other than a typhoon, when was the last time that ALL suitable airports in the islands were shut down with no warning? (Dec. 7, 1941 notwithstanding...) A 767-300 from STL had no more options for diversion than an A320 from SFO.

The fact that the legacy carriers operate that route IS exactly why VA might do it. Also, they may try to take a bite out of ATA's sardine flights. IMO.

VA will not impact JB in SFO. The few people who drive to OAK from San Fran may switch to VA but I doubt it. VA will draw from the disaffected legacy pax. UA, DAL and AA could be the big losers. Also, NW pax connecting to East Coast cities served by VA might be lured away.

Again, I believe the market share will shift from the low service legacy carriers to the leather-clad, PTV-equipped new breed LCC's.TC



FL450, M.85
User currently offlineCactusHP From United States of America, joined May 2004, 348 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 5249 times:

Am I right in saying no Low cost airline flies to the Islands?

ATA and *cough* HP


CactusHP

EDIT: I have my sources

[Edited 2004-06-25 18:43:02]


Sorry, I was on the landline
User currently offlineNW7E7 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 534 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 5237 times:

United will get killed in SFO!! Too bad.

User currently offlineBestWestern From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2000, 7152 posts, RR: 57
Reply 13, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 5194 times:

Hawaii is perfect LCC country - just like florida from the north east. Its also perfect hour building night flying - avoiding the transcon 'me too' competition.


The world is really getting smaller these days
User currently offlineSan2snow From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 36 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 5150 times:

One of the initial losers will probably be the America West transcons out of SFO to JFK and Bos.


If you want to improve, Be content to be thought foolish and stupid
User currently offlineFLY2LIM From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1184 posts, RR: 10
Reply 15, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 5152 times:

Someone said that B6 would be affected in SFO. Last time I checked, B6 didn't fly into SFO, only OAK and SJC.
This is what I feel the main impact will be as far as VA. At this time, there are few options from SFO to places like LAS and PDX. Many of those options are out of OAK and SJC. I think that VA will offer a new "alternative" and it will have a domino effect. For example, all the people who live in SF and the peninsula will no longer need to go to a different airport to fly to LAS or other short flights like that. That's my opinion. I think everyone will be affected. Curiously, I think that VA will not compete directly with WN and B6 because those two are only operating out of OAK and SJC.
More choices, and I welcome them.
FLY2LIM



Faucett. La primera linea aerea del Peru.
User currently offlineSevenHeavy From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 1156 posts, RR: 9
Reply 16, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 5123 times:

There are a number of old threads asking why LCC's haven't tried Hawaii flights in the past. The answer always seems to be the same: Cost. I still say that as much as I would like to see it these flights are unlikely to happen. For an LCC they are difficult to make money on - even east coast - florida markets have some higher yield, last minute business traffic and this is often what makes the difference between a profit and a loss. Granted they are nowhere near what the legacy carriers have charged for "walk up" fares but they are still far higher than the restrictive promotional fares that make up a large part of LCC's ticket sales. Couple this with the added cost of operating long over water ETOPS flights and the routes become very risky for carriers which need consistently high load factors to break even.

From what I've seen so far Virgin America is going to be aiming itself squarley at JB's business, with a similar high-end approach to the LCC model. I find it hard to believe that JB will emerge unaffected assuming that the two comptete on the same routes. UA lost business from SFO when JB started flying from OAK so why would these customers not be prepared to go back to flying from SFO if the price was right?.  Smile

Again I hope I am wrong but so far no LCC has been willing to make the jump to operate Hawaii flights, maybe one day this will change but it certainly would not be a wise move for a newly established (and therefore relatively vulnerable) LCC.

Regards,

SevenHeavy



So long 701, it was nice knowing you.
User currently offlineStearmanNut From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 352 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 5114 times:

They will all suffer with exception of WN. If Virgin does what I think it will do, all major airlines in the US will have two WN type operations to contend with. UA, AA, DL, and all others will have to make some major operational changes to stay in the game, barring another national tragedy.


If wishes were horses, a Tail Dragger I would fly...
User currently offlineMikey711MN From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1398 posts, RR: 8
Reply 18, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 5084 times:

One thing I think that has been universally agreed upon is that SFO is so thoroughly delay-prone that Virgin America's startup there seems a bit of a shaky decision. Which leads me to the conclusion that they, too, know this and are therefore looking to immediately displace market share where they can, thusly creating a zero-sum effect on operations at SFO. Now while I'm not sure which routes are most suspect (read: lucrative for LCC startup), my guess is that a few of UA's hub operations will be the first target mostly because they've got the most to lose and they're limited in their resources to compete at SFO for any sizeable entrenchment.


I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
User currently offlineHz747300 From Hong Kong, joined Mar 2004, 1676 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 5080 times:
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UA. No question. However, that said, UA is used to dealing with SFO, and it is prone to delays as it is built in the foggiest part of the bay area. I hope it works for Branson though, and I still think Austin, TX would be ideal for a LCC with coastal connections. It just was not glamorous enough for the glory hog.


Keep on truckin'...
User currently offlineRichard28 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2003, 1619 posts, RR: 6
Reply 20, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 5051 times:

It suprises me that SFO is the base, especially when VS has recently expanded its relationship with HP, and will even have codeshares with HP starting soon.

maybe this is a guide as to which routes Virgin America will fly - i.e. non-HP routes?


User currently offlineWilco From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 355 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 5043 times:

UA without a doubt. Virgin America is gonna go after those transcon SFO-NYC and SFO-WAS routes..... I seriosuly doubt VirginAmerica will touch HNL, not at first at least: these routes bleed too much money.

Here is my less technical opinion: take the jetblue route map and look at it in the mirror- a lot of transcon traffic from SFO (like Jetblue's JFK) as well as traffic up and down the Western States.

-WILCO



"Ever seen a grown man naked?"
User currently offlineLono From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 1335 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 4980 times:

I was thinking not so much trans con flights... But I think Virgin will start north south flights out of SFO... Much like Alaska...and Alaska has been successful focusing on west coast service... and Alaska has been able to leverage pricing up until now... I have to think Alaska will be hit hardest as their turf will become a war zone... Much like JetBlue did on the east coast...to DL


Wally Bird Ruled the Skys!
User currently offlineNorthwest717 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 4964 times:

I think probably jetBlue because Virgin America is offering the same sort of product that jetBlue does. I heard that their cabin would include PTVs (correct me if I am mistaken) and they are operating A320s. They might even latch on to the same routes as jetBlue. I dunno, just my $.02.  Smile/happy/getting dizzy

-Tim


User currently offlineCactusHP From United States of America, joined May 2004, 348 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 4951 times:

*cough* *cough* HP means business! i.e. Hawaii


CactusHP



Sorry, I was on the landline
25 NYCTZ : ATA scheduled service to Hawaii includes LAX and SFO to both HNL and OGG ( I am pretty sure its daily) with seasonal service to Lihue,Kauai. Also PHX
26 NZblue : United will get killed in SFO!! Too bad. Based on what?! We all know how strong and large a presence United was pre-9/11 in the San Francisco market.
27 UAMAYBACH1239 : I UA will only be impacted in certain markets, from west to east. It will not be able to compete with UA in Hawaii. Between UA , Aloha , and fog, they
28 AirframeAS : Based in SFO.... What airline do you think the new LCC Virgin America will impact the most.... I'm thinking Alaska Airlines will be impacted the most.
29 Gigneil : An A320 could operate the 5 hour sector but could not carry the required contingency fuel without a severe payload penalty. AQ uses B73G's but these a
30 Aa717driver : Simply having market share doesn't mean VA can't hurt UA. Howabout the SFO-DEN market where UA has gouged travellers for years? VA will have the same
31 Post contains images SQ452 : Conventional Wisdom is going to suggest that B6 and WN would be affected, when in all actuality they will probably be ok, mostly UA is going to take t
32 Lono : So from the responses here... you don't think Virgin will focus on the west coast... like Alaska does...??? I was thinking city pairs SFO-SEA, SFO-LAX
33 Access-Air : So When does Southwest Airlines or AirTran get to set up a nice little LCC operation to try and compete with Easyjet or RyanAir over in the UK??? Acce
34 BoingGoingGone : United. No question. Second Alaska.
35 777ualsfo : If UA, Ted, and Alaska can get their costs down, they may give Virgin American a run for their money. However, the newspapers here have said Virgin Am
36 Cubsrule : With the weather delays the way they are at SFO and the fact that this zero-sum idea is unrealistic at least in the short term, every single airline o
37 Aaron747 : WN backed out of SFO to OAK many years ago because of that. This is patently false.
38 Ha763 : A brand new carrier with no ETOPS certification flying to Hawaii anytime soon? I doubt it. HA and NW were able to get 180min ETOPS certification becau
39 Ltbewr : Among them: Alaska - especially as to West coast, western US major cities routes HP - espeically as to their SFO/PHX and LasVegas and related routes F
40 AirframeAS : I was thinking city pairs SFO-SEA, SFO-LAX, SFO-SAN, SFO-YVR, SFO-PVR, SFO-PDX, SFO-ANC, SFO-PHX... you know Alaska Air's bread and butter routes... U
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