Qantasclub From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 757 posts, RR: 2 Posted (10 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 34135 times:
Was just wondering which carriers you guys would rate as the most unsafe airline-it's one thing to have a 'perception' of airlines that are unsafe vs the actual figures based on FRE which stands for fatal event rate which is a measure of how many crashes/fatalities over the number of flights:
These figures are taken from www.airsafe.com: go and have a look
777ualsfo From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 104 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (10 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 33986 times:
You are really looking at the wrong column to compare.
You should be comparing the rate (first column)
HIGHEST AirTran 5.88
Definition of the FLE is FLE - Full Loss Equivalent: This is the sum of the proportions of passengers killed for each fatal event. For example, 50 out of 100 passengers killed on a flight is an FLE of 0.50, 1 of 100 would be a FLE of 0.01. The fatal event rate for a set of fatal events is found by dividing the total FLE by the number of flights in millions.
So, this just tells you which airlines had accidents in which most of the passengers were killed - of course this is high for UAL and AA who both lost two large airliners to terrorists in 2001!
Most airlines rates are within the same range - shows how safety has improved over the years.
Cloudy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (10 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 33822 times:
What do you guys think? Are you surprised by any of the above scores?
AA and UA don't surprise me considering the amount of aircraft the Airline and their subsideries operate,
Notice that he said "The fatal event rate for a set of fatal events is found by dividing the total FLE by the number of flights in millions."
This means the size on an airline is accounted for.
Since fatal events are so rare in airline travel, however, a single event can really skew the results. That is why airtran's is so high - it accounts for the Valuejet crash some time ago. Since Airtran does not fly nearly as many flights as AA, this makes for a higher figure.
If there were a dozen or so fatal events per year per major airline, maybe we would have enough incidents to draw conclusions. Since the number of fatal events even for a whole year is not statistically significant, we cannot really know how "safe" any given airline is.
That being said, a while back Korean Air had a pretty bad reputation. In fact, it was bad enough for the US defense department to prohibit their personel from flying on the airline. Their record also scared their codeshare partners (Delta I believe was one of them, I could be wrong). Their partners sent some experienced pilots and mechanics to teach Korean Air how to do things better, and their record improved.
Travatl From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 2174 posts, RR: 6
Reply 5, posted (10 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 33773 times:
OMG - This stupid website again. That "5.88" rating has been around for about 7 years, when ValuJet first became AirTran. And about once a year, somebody posts something about it on this forum...then all the fools jump on the "AirTran's unsafe!" bandwagon, and pull out this NTSB report, and that NTSB report, spouting half truths, and unsourced information.
These days, if an airline is flying in the US, it's perfectly safe.
CessnaLady From Mexico, joined May 2004, 311 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (10 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 33661 times:
QUESTION: (don't shoot me!)
Is there any chance that any accident goes unreported? Example: there was a lot of talk, about 10-12 years ago, that TAESA, a now-defunct airline in Mexico, had lost a ferrying B732 near MZT, and that the news piece was hushed at all costs... I haven't found anything related to such pretended accident - other than the pertinent a/c being registered as a "write-off" due to age and "structural damage du to metal fatigue - crystallization"...
What about accidents in the former Soviet Union / Communist block? Were they all reported/leaked to the Western world?
Travatl From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 2174 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (10 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 33646 times:
Not only that, if you use the figures that airsafe.com itself uses, and then add the flights that AirTran has flown since this was actually started, AirTran's "Flights" column has actually jumped to .92 (this site "flights" hasn't been updated since 1998 when AirTran was flying 230 flts a day). THEN you divide the FLE by the total number of flights in millions, it gives you a new "RATE" of 1.08, down from 5.88....still twice as high as say American's, but a fifth of what it was 7 years ago. However, it still shows then just how ludicrous this "analysis method" is.
If jetBlue had a crash tomorrow, despite their fleet being only 10 fewer than AirTran's, their "RATE" would jump through the ceiling simply because they have far fewer flights a day (so many transcons), and thus fewer flights to compare to.
This guy should be run out of town for posting what looks to be legitimate data, when it is actually nothing but dramatic drivel.
Lufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3246 posts, RR: 10
Reply 9, posted (10 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 33641 times:
I think this is the wrong measure
I would be more concerned about carriers that have trouble gaining spares, training and techonology thanks to UN and US sanctions. For example, IRANAIR, or that recent south american, i think it was Aerocontie?
Also, I'd be concerned about carriers in Africa that disregard proceedures/regulations thanks to corrupt attutides (such as the former Nigeria Airways) or that the president of their Tin Pot country desides to "borrow" there 1965 727-100.
I've heard rumors that Biman has major problems with their F28s, and some of the former soviet republics "new" private airlines did have problems in the early and mid-nineties, but these seem to have been cleared up. I ersonally would feel much safer on an Aeroflot Tu-154 or just about any 727-200 leaving Rio di Geniro, than anything in central Africa. Some of their airports don't even have fences, let alone anything else.
WGW2707 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 1197 posts, RR: 33
Reply 11, posted (10 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 33512 times:
AeroContinente (or AeroCocainente as I like to call it) was blacklisted primarily because of the founder's association in the drug trade, although I would not be at all suprised if their maintenance is subpar.
China Airlines is probably one of the more unsafe airlines. From all accounts, their pilots are crazy. If I ever need to go to TPE, I'll probably fly another airline.
KAL used to have a bad reputation, but they have improved.
Orient Thai is supposed to be a disaster waiting to happen, but since someone's wrecking their planes I don't think we have to worry about it anymore...
There is a risk associated with most charter airlines operating to Jeddah. One should perhaps avoid Northeast Bolivian Airlines, and most of the African airlines. I would guess North Korea's flag carrier Air Koryo is pretty darn unsafe...
Oly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6978 posts, RR: 11
Reply 15, posted (10 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 33256 times:
Airline safety is one of those statistics that is impossible to quantify sensibly because the data is so sparse. It's like rail crashes, one incident has lots of casualties. The same number of people may die through car crashes or hospital mishaps or smoking/drugs/alcohol, but they aren't noticed.
A crash is really the only visible sign. What goes on behind the scenes, sloppy maintenance, wrong parts, fake parts, slack attitudes, culture (what P1 says goes), etc etc, that may not necessarily cause crashes, but lead to greater risk of serious incidents are probably a greater concern.
A number of airlines were recently banned from UK airspace because of such concerns, though I don't think any of the concerned airlines had suffered any crashes.
JGPH1A From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (10 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 33059 times:
CX123 - that's a bit unfair to carriers like KQ, ET, SW, QM who all have pretty good safety records (except for the KQ 310 that went down off West Africa). Even SA had 3 fatal accidents in its career, although fairly well spread apart.
1. The Viscount crash off the Wild Coast, I think in the 50's
2. The 707 "Pretoria" crash at Windhoek, in the early 60's
3. The "Helderberg" 747 combi onboard fire/crash off Mauritius in the 80's.
IL76 From Netherlands, joined Jan 2004, 2239 posts, RR: 46
Reply 24, posted (10 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 32946 times:
I flew CI once and I won't fly them again. A very unpleasant experience when it came to flying skills of the pilots. At that time I thought their pilots were pretty crazy. Now that I've heard quite a few other people saying the same, I believe my bad experience was not just caused by a one-off bad day of the pilots.
I don't feel safe on that airline.
They've also had a few crashes in the past decade which already has ruined their safety record...
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