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Airlines In The Future: What Do You See?  
User currently offlineSIunitsrule From Panama, joined Jul 2004, 90 posts, RR: 0
Posted (10 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 4385 times:

What I will state below is what I see happening, and NOT necessarily what I WANT to happen. I just wanted it to be clear.

I think in a couple of years some of the current big carriers will fall (maybe all) and, unlike before, their remains will not be bought in bulk by a few airlines but rather distributed to many smaller (but expanding) airlines. Eventually, however, the same thing that always happens will happen again, and some airlines will grow to become big carriers and some of them will fall too.
If you look back at history, this is what always happens; and it does because growing is such a natural thing but also such an incontrollable impetus.

This thread is for all of a.netters who want to share what they see happening in the future. Please do not post impossible/wet-dream scenarios or be offensive against others.


Everything is relative, so be mindful of your references...
8 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineFrmyqr From Canada, joined Apr 2004, 143 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (10 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 4375 times:

Ever scenes LCC came it majors have had to compete with them. LCC's have smaller planes with higher freq's. It seems to be where we are going.


i'm from regina. Heard of it?
User currently offlineCAL From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 499 posts, RR: 9
Reply 2, posted (10 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 4367 times:

Kinda weird but true , the airlines get bigger and bigger and the for one reason or another fail, Example: Eastern Airlines (Courtesy of F.L. who almost did it to Continental also) and Pan Am. Who is next??


CAL........Continental Airlines....... Work Hard, Fly Right
User currently offlineERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6789 posts, RR: 17
Reply 3, posted (10 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 4356 times:

I think there will be 2 or 3 big carriers, 2 or 3 LCC.. and a lot of regional airlines.. it's the circle of aviation.. when the top gets to heavy, it falls and starts rebuilding.. right now, there are too many airlines globally and some will fall (more than just US, if they do); a few will stay; and a lot of small ones will start rebuilding the pieces.

Course, in the future (say 20 to 30 years from now), most traditional airlines will be gone and personal avionic vehicles will be in their place. Instead of joining 120 people on a flight, a family of 4 or 6 or 1 could use their PAV to travel wherever.. I could see it.. shaped like a tear with wings in the rear..

air traffic control will be controlled by computers and on the same antennae as current cell signals use.. PAV will land on less than 150' roadway..

specialized atmos-PAV will travel in the stratosphere for international flights.. and specialized aqua-PAV will travel to the new hotspots.. undersea destinations.. including New Atlantia (off the NC coast, accessable only via EWN) LOL..

So how does that sound?



Aiming High and going far..
User currently offlineSIunitsrule From Panama, joined Jul 2004, 90 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (10 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 4315 times:

ERJ170:
I agree very much with your first paragraph. I like it.

I can see where your family air transportation comes from, but if air transportation becomes too common, then air traffic control would simply be too difficult. Population is increasing and it will continue to do so. I could go on on that but that's a different topic.

There will probably be some type of smaller air transport, though (although it will probably be short lived, since masses are what need to be transported).

Regards!



Everything is relative, so be mindful of your references...
User currently offlineN766UA From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 8370 posts, RR: 23
Reply 5, posted (10 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 4298 times:

The future of the industry is LCCs and the future of LCCs are Regional Jets. I see more Air Trans and Frontiers and only a few true legacy carriers.


This Website Censors Me
User currently offlineERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6789 posts, RR: 17
Reply 6, posted (10 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 4290 times:

Well, I think it is as easy as seperation into different air levels.. just like highways.. certain vehicles can take the fast lane, some the slow lane.. certain locations will only be serviced by the larger, communial avionic vehicles (NY, MIA, LA, SF, Chi only) where multiple PAV will converge at a transport-hub like area..

Of course, the other option is..

Airports will become verticle instead.. so there will be levels of airline traffic.. for example.. RJ will land on the 3 level.. Narrowbodies on the 2nd level.. and Widebodies on the first level.. each level will be connected by a series of elevators (say 30 for Chicago) that can hold 10 people each, that will transport all people to the main terminal area underground of the Widebody level.. That way, airlines can grow by adding more levels as long as the widebodies stay on the lower level and lighter planes go to the top. If you airport has more RJ than widebodes, you can have 2 levels for RJ.. etc.. growin to four floors.. each floor ranging from 50' to 200' high!



Aiming High and going far..
User currently offlineKlkla From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 946 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (10 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 4284 times:

Most industries 'consolidate' into a few big players as time goes on. With the airline industry this has never happened (although there have been some mergers over the years) and this is the only industry I can think of that has been around for so long and not had a major consolidation.

I think it will happen soon because there is simply too much capacity for current demand and so many airlines are losing money. If other industries are a good example the companies with the best management, assets and financial resources will survive and take over the others. Of the large airlines only Southwest meets all three criteria currently and consistently but a merger of some of the big legacy carriers would cut a lot of demand and provide a lot of efficiencies that could change the entire picture.


User currently offlineSIunitsrule From Panama, joined Jul 2004, 90 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (10 years 5 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 4259 times:

Klkla:
Your thinking makes all the sense in the world. Aviation involves such big quantities of money and people that a merger would cost too much. Uncontrolled growth is one of the worst things that can happen to a company. Things become bureaucratic, complicated and simply disorganized because of shear size.
I can see (and again, it makes total sense) the merger of two big carriers (not any in specific) but not more than that would be too costly and complicated. At least to do it at once. A prolonged merger is a possibility, but I do not see it happening for some reason I can't identify. I just cannot see it happening.
Your contribution gives the thread a different twist, thanks a lot!



Everything is relative, so be mindful of your references...
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