Dutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 55
Reply 1, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 4946 times:
A332 (Pacific and Atlantic)
DC10 (Hawaiian services from DTW and MSP + one or more Atlantic segments)
753 (Domestic & Hawaii)
A320 (Domestic & Mexico/Carib)
A319 (Domestic & Mexico/Carib)
DC9 (-30 and -50 series - Domestic)
I think that the 742s will be gone (NW at some point will be temepted to pick up some 2nd hand 744s at a great price), most of the DC-10-30s will be retired, all of the DC9-10s will be gone (finally - the -10s were supposed to be out of the fleet years ago) and some DC-9-30s and -50s will leave the fleet/
Frugalqxnwa From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 565 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 4907 times:
Okay, here is my serious listing of what NW's fleet will be in 3 years.
DC-9-30/40/50 with possible replacement orders for E190 or 717
A330-200/300 with possible 7E7 order to supplement on Pacific routes
DC-10 with possible 777 replacement order
747-400 freighter and passenger
AGrayson514 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 396 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 4794 times:
It think that three years isn't far ahead enough to see much of a change. Try 5-6 years, that will be the interesting time for NW. I think that NW is full of possibilities, like the DC-9 replacement (A318, A319, 717, EMB190?), and the DC-10 replacement (A330, A340, 7E7, 777?) along with possible expansion (More 747's, 747ADV, 744f? A340's, A380's?).
Then you have NW's regional operation, how long will those Saab 340's last? What about the Avro's?
NW will be one of the more interesting airlines to watch in the next 5-6 years.
Isitsafenow From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4984 posts, RR: 22
Reply 7, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 4721 times:
The summer of 2007 for NW will pretty much the same as the summer of 2004, only with a few less of these(DC9-10 and DC-10) and a couple more of those(Airbuses and perhaps a couple more 747-400's. Thats about it.
Now, try the summer of 2009, now theres a change or two for us
If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
Jafa From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 782 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 4481 times:
a few more Airbus A319, A320 more A330 (on schedule for delivery)
A few less DC9's (aoround 15-20)
all 747-200's removed from scheduled service
an order for Embraer 190/195 or CRJ700
Na From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 11494 posts, RR: 9
Reply 11, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 3360 times:
I think you got it about right, Azjubilee.
But I have some additional thoughts, mainly for the cargo fleet.
Regional jets aside the single-aisle fleet won´t be replaced except some DC-9s when age bites.
Some A330-300s could be added/placed on trunk routes.
the 744s and A330s won´t be in danger this decade.
The 742s and DC-10-30s will leave one after the other when economical reasons (age) demands it and the most interesting thing will be the answer what will replace them. Secondhand 744s and more A330s make most sense. 777s make no sense at all, but there is a little chance for A340s although I don´t expect something in this direction in the next 3 years.
NWA should be a hot candidate for becoming lauch customer for the 747 Adv. A commitment in that direction could happen in 2 or 3 years time.
Cargo: The oldest quartet of NWAs 742Fs will turn 30 by 2004, certainly time to contemplate here. I expect the newer 742 pax aircraft built in the mid 80s will be converted (as NWA has indicated last year although nothing has happened since). NWA could also be an airline shopping for 744SFs soon. I do not expect them buying brandnew 744Fs though. That wouldn´t fit the airlines and the market situation. But you never know. How beautiful would it be to see the NWA livery based on bare metal-finished 744Fs!
Azjubilee From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4320 posts, RR: 25
Reply 12, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 3292 times:
Good points however I have a few comments. The avro contract with Mesaba is up in 2007. If the NWA pilots and NWA get their wish, the 70 seat a/c will go to mainline flying. Then, why the need for avros? None. The contract stipulates that if the avros are retired they can be replaced with 44/50 seat CRJs 1 for 1. Then, if NWA is operating the 70 seat a/c, their numbers will be a function of the rest of the mainline narrowbody fleet, as are the 50 seat CRJs. So as they expand and contract that fleet, so will the 50 and 70 seats SJs.
I don't think the 777 or 345/346 is really out of the running. They might have been too big for the NWA Atlantic mission, but when the 742s are retired from hauling people, there will be a large market segment gone unfilled at NWA. If they only operate the 332 and 744 across the Pacific they will only have 250 and 400 seat a/c for that mission. They're missing the boat big time with the 350 seat market, especially being an airline that masters the art of matching capacity to demand.
IMHO, NWA can go two different ways. They can introduce the 333 to the Pacific, mainly for interport and Hawaii flying (due to range). This will provide them with 250, 300 and 400 seat a/c for the Pacific entity. Not only will this save them from introducing a new fleet type, it nearly fills the 350 seat gap left in the Pacific fleet. The only problem I see, is that they'll miss the boat with a 350 seat a/c to cross the Pacific (where the 332 is too small and the 744 too large). With a long range 350 seat a/c we could see the resumption of DTW-SHA/PEK/SEL and perhaps new long haul transpac flying.
With that said, that's where I think the 773ER or the 345/346 could possibly come into play. Should NWA choose to go this route the winning a/c will be the one that can fill the mission best. That being: aprox 65 WBC and 285 Y seats, full complement of cargo and passengers over a long distance. That's why I think it will come down to the 773ER or the 345/346 (346 most likely). I know engine commonality will come into play, but it won't matter if acquisition, operation and maintenance costs are negligible.
Regarding the acquisition of used a/c. NWA will only do this if those costs of acquiring a new plane are more than the costs of buying a used one and refurbishing it into NWA standard.
Regarding cargo - the new cargo LOA has been signed between NWA and their pilots which will facilitate the growth of the cargo arm in the near future. To what extent, I'm not sure. But I'm sure they're weighing the options of new planes and what type.
It's a dynamic time for NWA and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
Tjwgrr From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 2573 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 3233 times:
DC-9s will be "replaced" by Pinnacle and Mesaba RJ's. You will NOT see a NWA 717, EMB-170 -190 -195, or an A-318. Management will take the hard line and force acceptance of a contract which allows additional 70+ seat RJ's. Mainline may then purchase new types of RJ's for the regionals to lease.
NW's smallest mainline aircraft will eventually be the A-319.
Direct KNOBS, maintain 2700' until established on the localizer, cleared ILS runway 26 left approach.
Azjubilee From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4320 posts, RR: 25
Reply 15, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 3090 times:
TJwgrr - I wouldn't be so quick to assume the NWA pilots will completely dump their job protection language in their contract. They fought too hard to get it and will likely give up other things instead.