Aa777flyer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (11 years 10 months 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 7173 times:
Will A Major Carrier Disappear. More like will a Major Survive. DL's CEO told his employees likey only ONE or MAYBE TWO will survive this turmoil in the industry. US is on borrowed time, UA still has a LOT of work to do, AA still struggling, DL needs to get its cost down FAST, CO holding its own right now same as NW.
InnocuousFox From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2805 posts, RR: 12
Reply 5, posted (11 years 10 months 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 7128 times:
Remember that "disappear" may mean in name only. TWA "disappeared" in name but their aircraft and schedule survived to some extent. That may be something that happens in a situation such as US Air(friggin-ways). They aren't just going to vanish but be reduced or swallowed through buy-outs.
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
Flashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2939 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (11 years 10 months 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 7104 times:
ATA will not 'definitely' survive. They're in major financial trouble, unable to raise more cash, and having enough cash on hand to last another quarter. Some Wall Street analysts are beginning to predict that they'll breach their ATSB covenants in September. ATA will not survive this one, I'm afraid.
PROSA From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5644 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (11 years 10 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 7081 times:
I don't think that any will disappear. US and UA are quite troubled now, as are DL and AA to a lesser extent, but my prediction is that all of them will stumble through, albeit somewhat smaller than they are now.
"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
Cory6188 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 2741 posts, RR: 5
Reply 11, posted (11 years 10 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 7073 times:
Another scenario might be that all US domestic travel except for a few transcons (NYC-LAX/SFO) becomes LCC-only, with B6, FL, F9, I-Air, Song, Ted, etc. while the Big Six fly only the profitable international routes.
Freshlove1 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (11 years 10 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 7011 times:
US and UA are quite troubled now, as are DL and AA to a lesser extent.
Where are you getting your facts from??? US just posted a profit and I believe so did AA. UA is still under protection but they will come out soon. DL is another story, they seem to be having major problems now, more then US and AA and with out some major reorganization they will definatly see Chapt 11 unfortunatly. I seriously doubt any MAJOR carrier will die, they may downsize but I doubt they will go away. Unfortunatly it is just a matter of time until every airline goes through something like this, they can only avoid it for so long beofre they need to change their business plan to stay competitive.
Uswyjer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (11 years 10 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 6969 times:
US pulled small profit in the second quarter, their pilots have agreed to pay cuts and extra flight hours, and their flight attendants have agreed to talks. While just yesterday Delta asked for $1Bil in cuts from their pilots. United is still in bankruptcy but they've been quiet lately. AAs been quiet lately as well. NW and CO are okay from what I've heard, mostly from around here though
Sebring From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 1697 posts, RR: 14
Reply 18, posted (11 years 10 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 6902 times:
You can focus on majors all you want, but the US industry is not likely to find stability even if a major disappears, or if two or more majors merge. So long as Boeing and Airbus keep pumping out massive numbers of new jetliners, there will always be plenty of well priced new and used aircraft around to start up even lower cost LCCs. A liquidation of a major would result in hundreds of aircraft being thrown onto the used market. It would open up slots and gates at a major for potential new entrants. History will simply repeat itself
Burnsie28 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 7923 posts, RR: 8
Reply 19, posted (11 years 10 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 6861 times:
I dont think you will see any Legacy dissapear, but if you did it would be either UA or DL. Both did not have a great 2nd quarter, especially Delta, and NW has the most cash on hand of any airline, CO is doing good, US posted a profit, however, that was to be expected since they have dropped pay so much and now get nothing for retirement.
Cody From United States of America, joined May 1999, 1963 posts, RR: 8
Reply 21, posted (11 years 10 months 2 days ago) and read 6818 times:
This is an easy question to answer. In the simplest terms........every single airline out there right now will eventually go away. Yes, even WN. I also predict that at some point in time, IBM, AT&T and General Electric will go away. The question is when.
Looking near term (next five years) I predict one legacy airline will go away and the current LCC's will also see a death or two. It's a little premature to say it's going to be US AIRWAYS. If they get their cost structure in line already, they will be a force to reckon with. If they don't, they will go away. Some other upstart outfit will pick up the pieces. Then all of the sudden WN will have competition that can undercut them. So will JetBlue. They will have to adjust or die. Finally after everyone is working for free, airlines will no longer be needed because the future world economic structure will not sustain them and we will go back to a hunting and gathering society.
We usually lose an airline every ten years and are about due to lose another one. Everyone keeps saying "Oh there is going to be a big shakeout in the airline industry soon and someone's going to fail." They're right! Define "soon" though. I have been hearing this since before 9-11 and low and behold everyone is still here except Midway.
Stirling From Italy, joined Jun 2004, 3943 posts, RR: 20
Reply 22, posted (11 years 10 months 2 days ago) and read 6755 times:
The loss posted by Independence is somewhat misleading. That figure includes costs associated with the startup....expenses that are only incurred once. They still lost money, but not as much as it would seem.
I have said this before here, the day is on the horizon where airlines as we know it will cease to exist....Most travel will be through one of the worlds alliances. With that said....expect US and UA to revisit merger talks...as well as something to happen with CO, NW, and DL.
We saw this when the commuters and regionals began flying in the colors of their partners. So what I predict is nothing more than a natural evolution.
The LCCs will remain, bigger, and fewer....
The truth remains, barring some catastrophic economic disaster, the US is, and will continue to be the worlds largest market for civil aviation....with the EU and China hot on her heels.
MMEPHX From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (11 years 10 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6702 times:
somewhere along the way if passengers and/or revenue don't return in numbers sufficient enough to allow economic operation of the airline system, one or even more of the majors will probably disappear. It is widely recognized there is excess capacity in the industry in terms of available seats something has to give somewhere. Either we all start paying higher fares or some capacity is taken out of the market. The LCC's are unlikely to take it out of the market as they are profitable within it now.
One possible answer is to relax the rules on foreign ownership if a US carrier was able to truly merge with a European or Asian carrier then economies of scale within the supply chain might just work. Current Alliances can only go so far and were in fact originally established because outright ownership wasn't possible.