Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Will A Major US Carrier Disappear?  
User currently offlineHPA320 From Mexico, joined Jul 2004, 160 posts, RR: 0
Posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 6871 times:

It has being brought to my attention that it seems there are way too many seats for passengers these days.

This means, there are also a lot of carriers within the US.

Therefore, it seems there'll be a reaccomodation of this seats. What do I mean? Well, that at least one major carrier will have to go  Sad

This will mean that the carriers that are left will be able to exploit the market in a better way.

What do you think about this?


America West Airlines. 1983-2005. The Journey Continues...
57 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAa777flyer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 6733 times:

Will A Major Carrier Disappear. More like will a Major Survive. DL's CEO told his employees likey only ONE or MAYBE TWO will survive this turmoil in the industry. US is on borrowed time, UA still has a LOT of work to do, AA still struggling, DL needs to get its cost down FAST, CO holding its own right now same as NW.

User currently offlineHPA320 From Mexico, joined Jul 2004, 160 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 6725 times:

I think HP is doing the right thing  Smile


America West Airlines. 1983-2005. The Journey Continues...
User currently offlineSCRAMJET From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 99 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 6711 times:

A "Major" carrier might not disappear, but it might turn into a small trunk airline to feed the larger one(s) that survive(s).

User currently offlineCory6188 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 2692 posts, RR: 5
Reply 4, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 6700 times:

Unfortunately, it seems as if any of the majors were to survive, it would only be NW and CO, who are the only two carriers that are somewhat financially stable at the moment.

User currently offlineInnocuousFox From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2805 posts, RR: 14
Reply 5, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 6688 times:

Remember that "disappear" may mean in name only. TWA "disappeared" in name but their aircraft and schedule survived to some extent. That may be something that happens in a situation such as US Air(friggin-ways). They aren't just going to vanish but be reduced or swallowed through buy-outs.


Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
User currently offlineCXA330300 From South Africa, joined May 2004, 1569 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 6683 times:

CO and NW will very likely survive. AA and DL maybe, US and UA, little hope.

And the other majors (WN, HP, ATA, Alaska) will definitely survive.



The sky is the limit as long as you can stay there
User currently offlineLuv2fly From United States of America, joined May 2003, 12150 posts, RR: 49
Reply 7, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 6668 times:

Or they will no longer fly the schedule or cities they now do, being a dramatically different airline then they are now.


You can cut the irony with a knife
User currently offlineFlashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2903 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 6664 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

ATA will not 'definitely' survive. They're in major financial trouble, unable to raise more cash, and having enough cash on hand to last another quarter. Some Wall Street analysts are beginning to predict that they'll breach their ATSB covenants in September. ATA will not survive this one, I'm afraid.

User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6491 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 6664 times:

I think Cory6188 is being overly pessimistic, and going with what appears evident "at the moment."

Only two major carriers left? I highly suspect otherwise. The airline situation in the U.S. would become a major problem for lack of competition if that occurred.

What I suspect might happen is that you'd see three or four, at least one for each of the large global alliances.



When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offlinePROSA From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5644 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 6641 times:

I don't think that any will disappear. US and UA are quite troubled now, as are DL and AA to a lesser extent, but my prediction is that all of them will stumble through, albeit somewhat smaller than they are now.


"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
User currently offlineCory6188 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 2692 posts, RR: 5
Reply 11, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 6633 times:

Another scenario might be that all US domestic travel except for a few transcons (NYC-LAX/SFO) becomes LCC-only, with B6, FL, F9, I-Air, Song, Ted, etc. while the Big Six fly only the profitable international routes.

User currently offlineFreshlove1 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 6571 times:

US and UA are quite troubled now, as are DL and AA to a lesser extent.


Where are you getting your facts from??? US just posted a profit and I believe so did AA. UA is still under protection but they will come out soon. DL is another story, they seem to be having major problems now, more then US and AA and with out some major reorganization they will definatly see Chapt 11 unfortunatly. I seriously doubt any MAJOR carrier will die, they may downsize but I doubt they will go away. Unfortunatly it is just a matter of time until every airline goes through something like this, they can only avoid it for so long beofre they need to change their business plan to stay competitive.


User currently offlineRCS763av From Colombia, joined Jun 2004, 4396 posts, RR: 12
Reply 13, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 6561 times:

Im sorry....isnt AA already profitable.....

User currently offlineTommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6932 posts, RR: 9
Reply 14, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 6548 times:

HP, AA, CO and NW are in the best shape of all of them right now.


"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
User currently offlineUswyjer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 6529 times:

US pulled small profit in the second quarter, their pilots have agreed to pay cuts and extra flight hours, and their flight attendants have agreed to talks. While just yesterday Delta asked for $1Bil in cuts from their pilots. United is still in bankruptcy but they've been quiet lately. AAs been quiet lately as well. NW and CO are okay from what I've heard, mostly from around here though Big grin
-Jeremy


User currently offlineNorthwestair From Poland, joined Jul 2001, 650 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 6501 times:

I thought the US profit was because they sold some assets


I don't care who you fly just as long as you fly
User currently offlineFreshlove1 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 6477 times:

They sold a few planes that they were no longer using but even if they didn't do that they would have still posted a profit, it just wouldn't have been as big

User currently offlineSebring From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 1666 posts, RR: 14
Reply 18, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 6462 times:

You can focus on majors all you want, but the US industry is not likely to find stability even if a major disappears, or if two or more majors merge. So long as Boeing and Airbus keep pumping out massive numbers of new jetliners, there will always be plenty of well priced new and used aircraft around to start up even lower cost LCCs. A liquidation of a major would result in hundreds of aircraft being thrown onto the used market. It would open up slots and gates at a major for potential new entrants. History will simply repeat itself

User currently offlineBurnsie28 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 7564 posts, RR: 8
Reply 19, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 6421 times:

I dont think you will see any Legacy dissapear, but if you did it would be either UA or DL. Both did not have a great 2nd quarter, especially Delta, and NW has the most cash on hand of any airline, CO is doing good, US posted a profit, however, that was to be expected since they have dropped pay so much and now get nothing for retirement.


"Some People Just Know How To Fly"- Best slogan ever, RIP NW 1926-2009
User currently offlineBurnsie28 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 7564 posts, RR: 8
Reply 20, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 6412 times:

Although its not a major, Independence lost $27 million in I believe one month or so, ever since they became separate from UA and such. Hmm, what could be in store for independence?


"Some People Just Know How To Fly"- Best slogan ever, RIP NW 1926-2009
User currently offlineCody From United States of America, joined May 1999, 1932 posts, RR: 9
Reply 21, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 6378 times:

This is an easy question to answer. In the simplest terms........every single airline out there right now will eventually go away. Yes, even WN. I also predict that at some point in time, IBM, AT&T and General Electric will go away. The question is when.

Looking near term (next five years) I predict one legacy airline will go away and the current LCC's will also see a death or two. It's a little premature to say it's going to be US AIRWAYS. If they get their cost structure in line already, they will be a force to reckon with. If they don't, they will go away. Some other upstart outfit will pick up the pieces. Then all of the sudden WN will have competition that can undercut them. So will JetBlue. They will have to adjust or die. Finally after everyone is working for free, airlines will no longer be needed because the future world economic structure will not sustain them and we will go back to a hunting and gathering society.

We usually lose an airline every ten years and are about due to lose another one. Everyone keeps saying "Oh there is going to be a big shakeout in the airline industry soon and someone's going to fail." They're right! Define "soon" though. I have been hearing this since before 9-11 and low and behold everyone is still here except Midway.


User currently offlineStirling From Italy, joined Jun 2004, 3943 posts, RR: 21
Reply 22, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 6315 times:

The loss posted by Independence is somewhat misleading. That figure includes costs associated with the startup....expenses that are only incurred once. They still lost money, but not as much as it would seem.

I have said this before here, the day is on the horizon where airlines as we know it will cease to exist....Most travel will be through one of the worlds alliances. With that said....expect US and UA to revisit merger talks...as well as something to happen with CO, NW, and DL.
We saw this when the commuters and regionals began flying in the colors of their partners. So what I predict is nothing more than a natural evolution.
The LCCs will remain, bigger, and fewer....
The truth remains, barring some catastrophic economic disaster, the US is, and will continue to be the worlds largest market for civil aviation....with the EU and China hot on her heels.



Delete this User
User currently offlineMMEPHX From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 6262 times:

somewhere along the way if passengers and/or revenue don't return in numbers sufficient enough to allow economic operation of the airline system, one or even more of the majors will probably disappear. It is widely recognized there is excess capacity in the industry in terms of available seats something has to give somewhere. Either we all start paying higher fares or some capacity is taken out of the market. The LCC's are unlikely to take it out of the market as they are profitable within it now.

One possible answer is to relax the rules on foreign ownership if a US carrier was able to truly merge with a European or Asian carrier then economies of scale within the supply chain might just work. Current Alliances can only go so far and were in fact originally established because outright ownership wasn't possible.


User currently offlineArtsyman From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 4745 posts, RR: 34
Reply 24, posted (10 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 6198 times:

It has being brought to my attention that it seems there are way too many seats for passengers these days.
*****

Then how do you explain that virtually all the majors have daily systemwide load factors around 90% these days.

Other times of the year you may have a case, but not at the moment


25 InnocuousFox : "Where are you getting your facts from??? US just posted a profit and I believe so did AA." Which facts did you decide to ignore? US posted a profit f
26 Freshlove1 : Which facts did you decide to ignore? US posted a profit for THIS quarter but warned that they are expecting losses to continue. I'm not ignoring any
27 Clipper707 : This is what will happen: NW will take CO and DL. WN will take AA and UA. F9 will take US,HP, and NK. PA and PI will be reborn as the FLAG CARRIER. TW
28 Nlink : It would help the industry to get rid of capicty with a major going under.
29 Baw716 : To all, Please have a look at my post under "United Fleecing". It explains in some detail about UAs dilemma, which is not so radically different than
30 Post contains images NWADC9 : "Will A Major US Carrier Disappear?" Yes, US Airways will disappear.
31 CRJDispatchKid : I believe ATA is not part of any alliances, so that kind of hurts to be alone out there. Also, look at NW / 9E pushing in on IND. First Midwest Expres
32 Burnsie28 : While I agree, that in the rare chance that mega mergers happened that NW is more likely to take CO and DL rather then say CO taking NW and DL and so
33 Spacecadet : I'm not ignoring any facts so your wrong there. What else would you expect US to say when they are trying to get their employees to take more pay cuts
34 Rwylie77 : If you look at all markets around the world, companies operate much more efficiently where there is competition - just look at Emirates. The best thin
35 Boeing7E7 : I think it would be a safe bet that US Airways would move from the "Major" category to a "National" carrier if they keep making cuts. The stage is set
36 Reltney : Imagine if all or most of the airlines merge.......... We could make all the pay the same so you wont hear "they make more than us and she make more
37 Luv2fly : Reltney We need more like you around here. That said if one does not go out, the ones that remain are slowly changing and that change will keep up mor
38 NWAFA : With the totally crazy announcement today from UNITED with their 757's transcons, they are one step closer to being the one if not the 2nd to go away.
39 JMV : NWAFA, If UA can make money on fares that are competitive they may find this is a draw over LCCs or other competition. If a business traveler is going
40 A330323X : I think it would be a safe bet that US Airways would move from the "Major" category to a "National" carrier if they keep making cuts. I think it would
41 Boeing7E7 : Those would be some pretty freaking big cuts. My point exactly.
42 RogueTrader : As always, its important to check the facts versus listening to mere opinions stated above. People like to say things that sound like facts, but which
43 BoeingPride800 : If a major U.S. carrier was to disappear it would most likely be US Airways. US Airways is in the worst financial situation out of all the U.S. legacy
44 Yyz717 : US is not on borrowed time, it was the only major to post a (modest) profit for the last quarter. Not simply an operating profit - a full, bona fide p
45 Freshlove1 : No airline, even A.Nets golden child WN, has enough resources to survive another 9-11. The only reason the US CEO is saying this is to get the costs i
46 Yyz717 : WN is not really doing that much to US in PHL, what they got 28 flights a day compared to US 100's. Until WN gets 100's of flights out of PHL they are
47 Post contains links M404 : Wait a minute. Lets go back to your original premise it seems there are way too many seats for passengers these days. The following are LFs for six Le
48 RogueTrader : Yyz, You're stating opinions and heresay, not facts. If you have a quote or figures, post them and their source. The CEO of US is trying to get conces
49 RogueTrader : The actual breakeven point for individual Legacy carriers are usually not available Break even load factors are known and printed by every airline in
50 M404 : Rogue Thanks for the info. I just could not find a single source list such as ATA but I will keep digging
51 RogueTrader : Ok, I've never looked up any info for ATA, so maybe they're an odd one and don't publish load factor info, but all the traditional carriers do in the
52 WGW2707 : A US major carrier might dissappear, but I'm not sure if that's going to be the case. US Airways has made a lot of progress lately...if their Q3 resul
53 M404 : Rogue By ATA, I meant Air Transport Association of America, as that is who those others stats were from. Will be interesting search when I get time. I
54 Cloudy : I don't see why so many people are predicting that this or that major will survive, but in a downsized form. Most(All?) of the time legacy airlines ha
55 Ltbewr : I think it is still possible for a major USA carrier to disappear, or at least refomalate splitting into regional and long haul services over the next
56 Yyz717 : Yyz,You're stating opinions and heresay, not facts. So are you with the following: By no means is US in perfect shape, but its got more than enough ca
57 AZjetgeek : Of the current legacy carriers, my hunch is that any one of them could disappear and that one or two will, but I'm not so bold as to suggest which one
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Would Loss Of Major US Carrier Help The Industry? posted Sat Feb 4 2006 19:20:08 by AviationAddict
Will DL Be The Only US Carrier To IST? posted Fri Jul 14 2006 17:57:56 by Gokmengs
Will Any US Metros Have Two Major Intl Airports? posted Fri Sep 5 2003 07:21:22 by Paddy
Which US Carrier Has/will Get 777-300? posted Sat Jul 8 2000 01:55:21 by Lantern88
NW Name Larger In Europe Then Any Other US Carrier posted Thu Dec 7 2006 06:08:53 by Burnsie28
Qatar: Airbus Will Give Us Free 380 And Money posted Tue Nov 7 2006 17:02:02 by Jimyvr
Major US Airlines - Why Blue Seat Covers? posted Thu Sep 28 2006 02:45:09 by 1337Delta764
Major US Airline To Fly To Sabiha Gökcen As Of 07 posted Thu Sep 21 2006 03:43:57 by DALelite
Major US Airline To Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen posted Mon Jul 10 2006 17:03:49 by Humberside
Why No US Carrier At VIE posted Mon Jun 5 2006 01:32:10 by COGlobeTrotter