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What Could/would LUV Do When US Is Gone?  
User currently offlineLgbguy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (10 years 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2405 times:

What would LUV try and do if/when US is gone. Everything point to them being gone in the next 6 to 8 weeks. Are there any airplane out there for LUV to pick up and start service by Dec.? I know they have 10 -200 that are scheduled to be retired from 10-22-04 thru 1-16-05. Could those be delayed to get service started until enough -700's can be obtained?

Also what markets would be the first to get LUV service?

My guess is PIT, CLT and possibly DCA.

WW for the LGBGUY

13 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineRyefly From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 1396 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (10 years 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2364 times:

Southwest will be in CLT pretty quickly if US fails. PIT will still need to get it's cost down before Southwest would want to get in there. DCA would be interesting. In my opinion DCA has to many restrictions for Southwest to want to deal with. You never know though.

User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 968 posts, RR: 51
Reply 2, posted (10 years 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2359 times:

For now... the last thing WN wants is for US to go down. If US were to fail, other airlines would flood into PHL and PIT just as WN are laying down their carefully planned opperations, it would ruin everything they have been doing for the last year. WN likes to steadily and slowly grow in a market, if US were to fail, it would totally undermine this philosophy.

If US fails after WN has established itself in PHL, I don't think they would shed a tear so to speak.

Are there any airplane out there for LUV to pick up and start service by Dec.?

WN has pleanty of aircraft on order, but note that they rarely take second hand aircraft.

Could those be delayed to get service started until enough -700's can be obtained?

The -200s will never leave inter-Texas ever ever again. They are such a small part of WNs opperations that they are largely irrelevant for the planning of new markets like PHL. Also, WN has over 107 737-700 on order to be delivered in the next few years.

[Edited 2004-08-19 19:13:56]

User currently offlineKim777fan From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 510 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (10 years 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2348 times:

I could see WN picking up routes and/or landing slots left by US (as could a number of carriers.) I don't think there's any aircraft WN really could use except as trade-in value on more 737's and only if they could swing a SWEEET deal.

User currently offlineS12PPL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (10 years 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2335 times:

It would be interesting to see what Southwest would do when US goes six feet under. They have lots of cash on hand to invest in a large expansion, and they certainly have the fleet to do it. I highly HIGHLY doubt Southwest would move in on DCA. They all ready have a huge operation at BWI just down the road, and there is no need to deal with DCA's restrictions when you have a great thing going at BWI. Everyone in that area knows WN is at BWI, so they don't need to worry about the DCA market right away. As for CLT...That could be interesting. If they're landing fees are that high though...it's tough to say. It may just be worth WN's investment though..

User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 968 posts, RR: 51
Reply 5, posted (10 years 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2323 times:

It would be interesting to see what Southwest would do when US goes six feet under.

If US goes six feet under  Big grin


User currently offlineN670UW From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1603 posts, RR: 8
Reply 6, posted (10 years 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2317 times:

PIT will still need to get it's cost down before Southwest would want to get in there.

The debt service will be falling in the near future. But even so, WN will obviously have far fewer gates than US, and would funnel more passengers through those few gates and US does through most of theirs. Fewer gates + more passengers = lower per passenger cost. WN's PIT costs would only be a fraction of what US pays.



670


User currently offlineS12PPL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (10 years 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2296 times:

No...I meant WHEN US goes under, DfwRevolution Smile

User currently offlineAirfrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
Reply 8, posted (10 years 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 2188 times:

LUV Has a pretty strict growth target each year. I suspect if US does go under, it will actually take a bit for everyone else to spin up. OTOH with all of the planes sitting around idle, and with some decently deep pockets, I think we could see another new LCC startup, perhaps with a existing brand ala F9 (Eastern anyone?) who would launch in the city with the largest O&D.

No one in there right mind would pick up all of US's fleet. Too many types, to large and to old sometimes.

Branson is already committed to the west coast and SFO. To try and go transcon before anything else is suicidal. He has a good business plan putting pressure on UA at SFO.

DCA's slots will probably go to the highest bidder in bankruptcy court. (If WX is weather delays and MX is maintaining, should BX be bankruptcy?). UA may make a low bid for the slots, F9 might pick up one or two. LUV has BWI.


User currently offlineOzarkD9S From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5049 posts, RR: 21
Reply 9, posted (10 years 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 2186 times:

An interesting prospect but consider these points:

1) When US pulled out of OAK WN copped another 3.5 gates, and we see where that led...they have now what? a dozen gates there?

2) When AA dumped the BNA hub WN built that up to a respectable operation within a few years.

3) The failure of Midway solidified WN at MDW, where they have thrived ever since.

4) The failure of Braniff 2 solidified WN at MCI, vaulting them to the #1 position at MCI.

However: WN has also gone after other airlines entrenched operations;

1) AA @ SJC

2) TW @ STL

3) US @ BWI and most recently PHL

4) DL @ SLC (with the purchase of Morris Air)

But: WN has thus far NEVER eyed operating from a slot restricted airport (save SNA). I think DCA and LGA are not and will never be on their radar, regardless of how many slots they could acquire.

I think in the event of a US liquidation, PHL/CLT/PIT and Florida will be the focus of any WN opportunistic expansion.



Next Up: STL-LGA-RIC-ATL-STL
User currently offlineTravisNC From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 96 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (10 years 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 2089 times:

As for CLT...That could be interesting. If they're landing fees are that high though...it's tough to say.

Actually, CLT's fees are very low. Here are is a comparison of fees at some airports from a report by Leigh Fisher Associates from a story in the Pittsburgh Business Times:

CLT - $1.30 per passenger
CVG - $3.53
STL - $4.06
PIT - $7.26 ($9 according to former CEO David Siegel)
PHL - $7.55

I've heard DEN is around $10.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see. It seems WN has their hands full with PHL, but if US just suddenly had to liquidate then I think they would seriously have to consider starting service at CLT and PIT. An opportunity like that just doesn't come along that often.


User currently offlineLgbguy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (10 years 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 2042 times:

"I know they have 10 -200 that are scheduled to be retired from 10-22-04 thru 1-16-05. Could those be delayed to get service started until enough -700's can be obtained?"


"The -200s will never leave inter-Texas ever ever again. They are such a small part of WNs opperations that they are largely irrelevant for the planning of new markets like PHL"

My thought was that the -200 would stay in thier current markets. But instead of retiring a -200 and move another in to that Texas market, simply put it into a new market.

Wwfor LGBGUY


User currently offlineJfrworld From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 365 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (10 years 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 2031 times:

WN has plenty of experience challening/or being challenged by bigger carriers and winning. This would not be new

1. USAirways - In the late 80's, USAir bought PSA and instantly became the largest intra-CA carrier. It had hubs at SFO and LAX and had signifcant ownership of the SO Cal - Nor Cal air corridor. It also tried to establish PHX as a mini hub during that time. By the early 90's USAir was out of CA and PHX almost altogether - almost single handedly by WN. US bought PSA for CA and ended up abandoing their ops. Now LAX and SFO are simply western destinations from PIT, CLT and PHL

2. United - In the mid/late 90's United started Shuttle by United and basically blanketed the westcoast market overnight. Every route that WN had was covered by UA. A few years ago UA abandoned Shuttle and basically conceded intra-CA to WN.

3. When Midway collapsed in the early 90's, Southwest walked in and overnight signed a deal to basically take over MDW with the promise to the city of chicago to rebuild ops at MDW.

If US collapsed, WN could easily swoop in and at least have mini-hub operations started overnight at either PHL or CLT.

Keep in mind that most carriers do not have the financial resources right now to make any major moves.


User currently offlineA340Spotter From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1980 posts, RR: 23
Reply 13, posted (10 years 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 2021 times:

Lgbguy, or is that Snaguy (!)...

I think you mentioned PIT in another thread as the city that WN would go for between the three you have listed. PIT to places like BWI, MCO, MDW, BNA, etc. would make some sense to me at least as a starting spot. The slight cut back in schedule down here in Texas points to this as possibly happening.

CLT is going to be the most intriguing city as far as who would step in to pick up the void left if US does in fact fold. While I wouldn't rule out WN looking at starting service there, I would be surprised if they went in heavy as they already serve RDU which picks off some CLT traffic already. But then again, WN is a major player in the airline industry these days and if you're profitable with fuel costs soaring through the roof, you can pretty much do whatever you want!

The big thing about CLT for US right now is their Caribbean/Central America flights which would certainly be something that other airlines would look into as these are fairly high yield flights...

Jeffrey



"Irregardless, it's a Cat III airplane, we don't need an alternate!"
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