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Boeing's 20-Year Freighter Forecast Statement. . .  
User currently offlineDIA From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3273 posts, RR: 27
Posted (10 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 2457 times:

Twenty year freighter forecast from Boeing includes these statements:

"The Boeing Company [NYSE: BA] said that world air cargo growth should expand at an average annual rate of 6.2 percent during the next two decades, with overall traffic tripling from current levels."

"Overall, Boeing predicts the world freighter fleet will increase to 3,456 airplanes from 1,766 during the 20-year forecast period, with the greatest growth in wide body freighters such as the Boeing 747, 767, MD-11 and the Airbus A300. This category ultimately will represent 60 percent of the fleet, compared to 44 percent today, eventually constituting more than 90 percent of total freighter capacity."
-Boeing

The rest can be found here: http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2004/q3/nr_040915g.html



No mention of A380, A330, or A340, or the 777 among others. . .interesting.

Thoughts/Comments?


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15 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineStarlionblue From Greenland, joined Feb 2004, 17185 posts, RR: 66
Reply 1, posted (10 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 2443 times:

Well, the 330, 340 and 777 don't have freighter conversions, and the other aircraft in the zone can more than make up for the entire volume. The A380 has a freighter version but the number of aircraft is still relatively small.


"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots."
User currently offlineA380900 From France, joined Dec 2003, 1118 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (10 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 2381 times:

This is good news. The problem is that Boeing has no competing products... No MD11, the 767 is in terminal phase, the 747 is almost over.

The bottom line is 6.2% annual growth = A380F will take no prisoners.

Again everyone who has been working in the airliner's division staff at Boeing in the last 15 years should be fired (and they should give the money they've earned back!). They've destroyed the business.

[Edited 2004-09-15 18:11:13]

User currently offlineAS739X From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 6200 posts, RR: 24
Reply 3, posted (10 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 2355 times:

Yes...As always the A380 will take all line. Can we ever have a post where some Airbus freak can say something that makes sense?

How, with the 6.2% growth does the A380 take no prisoners? Have we forgotten all the city's that have cargo service , and can not handle the A380? It will be a nice plane for hub to hub, yes! Fact is that the 6.2% includes ALL cargo operations. This is where the 767/A300 size planes com into effect. Planes that can go into the smaller city's that don't need a A380 that 1/4 full and need every inch to move around. Small airports around the world are not spending billions upgrading to get 1 A380 freighter a week.

Lets try not for the A vs. B war every post A380900. Let make sense!

ASSFO

[Edited 2004-09-15 18:26:32]


"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
User currently offlineA380900 From France, joined Dec 2003, 1118 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (10 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 2340 times:

Are they selling any 767 freighters? Will they keep the line going for a long time? My point is this. And then will they sell a lot of 747 against the A380?

If they don't have airplanes to sell, it is fair to assume they won't sell any.


User currently offlineDIA From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3273 posts, RR: 27
Reply 5, posted (10 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 2311 times:

As far as I know, Boeing is planning on keeping the 747 line open. They are creating newer versions that will probably debut under the 747-500 series, both pax and freighter versions. . .



"Well, the 330, 340 and 777 don't have freighter conversions..."

True, but over the next twenty years, you can bet on seeing these a/c having engineered freighter conversions available. . .



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User currently offlineCol From Malaysia, joined Nov 2003, 2129 posts, RR: 22
Reply 6, posted (10 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 2306 times:

A lot of this freight capacity will be taken by conversions. All these 744's will be coming to market when the 380 comes into service, and the 744F conversion program is well under way. The same can be said for the 767, 300 and MD11, more and more PAX units available for conversion. The 380 will only pick up new build 744F, which is around 1 per month.

The 767F is not a good seller when compared with the A300F, so I guess we can't hope to keep the line open with all these freighters!

More and more airports will become 380 compliant over the coming years, so this should become a non issue in this period.



User currently offlineSolnabo From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 859 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (10 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 2242 times:

"The 747-500 series, both pax and freighter version"

What 747-500? Have I missed something here.......or is this a roumor?

Micke/SE



Airbus SAS - Love them both
User currently offlineUlfinator From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 317 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (10 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 2221 times:

Being a Boeing employee I am actually tired of these forecasts. They seem to come out every other month around here.

the 747 is almost over.

The bottom line is 6.2% annual growth = A380F will take no prisoners.


I disagree in part to this statement. First off the 747 isn't "almost over" it still sells pretty good as a freighter at least and older 747s are being converted left and right (conversions is where there is a lot of market). Yes the A380F has great potential as a cargo hauler but with one disadvantage. Because the cockpit has been placed in between the decks it means that you can't have a nose door and one bug cavity allowing for oversize cargo. This is something that the 747 does have.


User currently offlineTod From Denmark, joined Aug 2004, 1730 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (10 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 2166 times:

"and the 744F conversion program is well under way"

CX 744 B-HOU is going to get the Boeing freighter mod in Xiamen next spring to kick that program off.

Tod


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (10 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 2154 times:

Different companies are setting up conversion programs for the 747-400; Singapore, Taeco and Bedek I believe ..

MD11 have become very popular as freighters, I think 200+ will be in operational in 10 years.

Same goes for the 767, a lot will probably be converted to freighters, replacing DC8s, 727s and 707s that are getting old, un-economic & noisy ..

In a later stage the older 33/40s & 777s will probably be converted, replacing DC10 and A300 freighters..

The Russians might try taking a bigger slice too..

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Photo © Daniel Alaerts - AirTeamImages




User currently offlineTod From Denmark, joined Aug 2004, 1730 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (10 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 2106 times:

TAECO is where the Boeing mod on B-HOU will be accomplished.

Tod


User currently offlineN863DA From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 48 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (10 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 2076 times:

Keesje: MD11 have become very popular as freighters, I think 200+ will be in operational in 10 years.

There were only 200 MD-11 airframes (including pax, convertible, combi and freight versions) built, so there won't be more than 200 in overall service in 10 years time.  Smile

The MD-11 has had a few hull losses, also, so that reduces the number of airframes in service further still.

FLY DELTA JETS



N 8 6 3 D A


User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1001 posts, RR: 51
Reply 13, posted (10 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 2045 times:

This is good news. The problem is that Boeing has no competing products... No MD11, the 767 is in terminal phase, the 747 is almost over.

Hellooo... they have a widebody twin with a MTOW of over 766,000 lbs. I'm aluding to the 777-200LR which is ripe for freighter duty, the second Boeing stops milking the 747F, Boieing will be all over the freighter market pitching the 772LRF.

And don't forget the 7E7-8, with a MTOW of ~480,000 and a wider fuselage than the 767...

Boeing might not have these freighters on the market, but Boeing is a roller-floor and a cargo hatch away from having posssibly the best freighter line-up. Why haven't they done this yet? Probably to keep the 747 line running.

MD11 have become very popular as freighters, I think 200+ will be in operational in 10 years.

Well 200 exact were built, and I believe a few have been written off


User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9826 posts, RR: 52
Reply 14, posted (10 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 2009 times:

The cost of an airframe is one of the most important factors for freight companies. In addition the performance characteristics of an airplane come into the picture as well. One of the main reasons that the MD-11 became such a good freighter is because it was so cheap to acquire. There was a flood of relatively new (less than 10 years) MD-11s in the market, which was great for cargo carriers.

The 772LR would be a good candidate for a freighter based on specifications, but in practicality, it probably won't amount to much. The 772LR is the most expensive plane that Boeing offers with a list price of around $200 million, which puts it out of the reach of most cargo carriers (and airlines for that matter). And unlike the MD-11 and 747, the 772LR probably will not be produced in quantities that will cause it to have a low resale value down the road. Basing a fleet of freighters on the 772LR is prohibitively expensive, especially when 747Fs can be had for less and are a superior plane for cargo at the moment and will be available widely on the used market.

Cargo carriers like FedEx are basing their longterm plans on the A380F. They are spending massive amounts of capital for it, and they expect it to be in their fleet for the long term because it is a dedicated freighter and probably will be the cheapest to operate cargo plane. That leaves the majority of their international cargo based on the MD-11 and A380. The A340 and 777 probably won't be able to penetrate the stronghold because they were designed with passengers in mind. However other carriers (especially Asian ones) are basing their fleets on the 747F. This will probably be a long term solution because 744s are entering the used market, and their values are going down.

This leaves the smaller markets needing a longterm solution. The A300F and 767F are the basis of DHL and UPS. They are cheap and efficient. The 7E7 might be able to penetrate the market if its production costs are as low as Boeing is hinting at. The 7E7 might be able to capture some of the new cargo plane market, but probably the 767s, which will be inundating the market with the advent of the 7E7 and A330, will be basis for the smaller cargo needs.

Cargo conversions will be the way to go in the future. Airlines are having a relatively high turn over rate with their planes. You are hard pressed to find a widebody plane that has been in service for over 20 years now with a major airline. If the trend for shorter life spans continues, there will be plenty of planes on the cargo side to take over DC-8s in the future. A300s and 767s along with the larger A380, 747 and MD-11 will probably hold the majority of the cargo market in the next 20-30 years.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineTod From Denmark, joined Aug 2004, 1730 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (10 years 3 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 1972 times:

but Boeing is a roller-floor and a cargo hatch away

It's not quite that easy. To carry real freighter type loads almost all the floor beams must be either reinforced or replaced. To get useful ceiling height, the air distribution ducting is usually replaced with ducts that fit close to the ceiling. Sometimes the lower lobe cargo compartments require additional heating from the trim air system to compensate for the heat previously given off by the electronic equipment. Relocating door 1L forward is required on some planes to maximize potential container locations. Addressing cockpit bulkhead requirements can be challenging too. Etc Etc . . . .

Tod


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