Flying-Tiger From Germany, joined Aug 1999, 4165 posts, RR: 36 Posted (10 years 1 month ago) and read 7693 times:
Two very interesting pieces:
- average order size is seen as only up to 15 frames, with one-digget numbers to be far more likely
- only about 100 7E7 sales till end of 2005 likely
=> it appears that Boeing has somewhat reduced its initial outlook, and appears to be quite jumpy on what Airbus might be planning to increase the competitiveness of the A330 - which isn´t so bad as many a.net members want us make to believe. Don´t forget, the ANZ order was a very close call for Boeing...
Few big orders for 7E7 are expected
Boeing exec: 50 jets would be a shock
By DARRELL HASSLER
The Boeing Co., which launched its new 7E7 model with a 50-plane
order from All Nippon Airways Co., expects most customers to buy
fewer than 15 of the planes.
"I'd be shocked to see another 50-plane order in the near-term
horizon," John Feren, vice president of sales for Boeing's 7E7, said
in an interview in Ottawa during the Aerospace Industries
Association of Canada annual meeting.
Boeing, which lost its lead in the jetliner industry to Airbus SAS
last year, intends to use the 200- to 300-seat 7E7 to replace its
767s and 757s and help the company regain market share. It believes
most orders will be similar to two by Air New Zealand Ltd. last
month or Vietnam Airlines Corp.'s commitment announced yesterday to
Boeing, which had $22.4 billion in jetliner sales last year,
launched the twin-engine 7E7 with Tokyo-based ANA's order, and the
first delivery is scheduled for 2008. The jet competes against the
A330 model made by Toulouse, France-based Airbus, which is
considering whether to upgrade its aircraft to counter the 7E7. That
could prompt airlines to put off buying decisions until their
choices become clear, Feren said. "I wouldn't be surprised that
there is an element of (airlines) waiting to see what Airbus does.
To date Airbus hasn't been very public with what their plan is for
an A330 successor."
Boeing is talking with about 20 airlines regarding orders and Feren
said he would be disappointed if none were completed before the end
of this year. He said he expects that the company will have at least
100 orders by the end of 2005.
NWAskyteam From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 75 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (10 years 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 7407 times:
I'd be willing to bet NW is one of those airlines taking the wait and see approach in relation to Airbus's response. An upgraded 330 would make a lot more sense for them in terms of fleet commonality than the 7E7.
Col From Malaysia, joined Nov 2003, 2122 posts, RR: 22
Reply 6, posted (10 years 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 7286 times:
Like previously pointed out, we are four years from delivery. If Boeing only had 200 at first flight that would be a good start for this program. Boeing's problem is that they need to stop their people dreaming up these sales figures, and then looking foolish. By doing what they did, they have pushed Airbus harder to compete.
It will sell, but at market requirements rate, not Boeings.
Nyc777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5790 posts, RR: 47
Reply 9, posted (10 years 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 7208 times:
An upgraded 330 would make a lot more sense for them in terms of fleet commonality than the 7E7.
True but if the 7E7 show much better operating costs that Boeing is promising (as well as improved economics over an improved 330) then I think they will order it over the 330 despite commonality.
Boeing's problem is that they need to stop their people dreaming up these sales figures, and then looking foolish.
Well it's not just Boeing but a lot of Wall Street analyst have been pumpimg their estimates of Boeing stock based on the analysts' converations with airlines vis a vis the 7E7. They're very bullish on the stock in part to the potential orders that the 7E7 is expected to get. Also Airbus is a little nervous about the 7E7 and the orders it can generate. Airbus talks to the same airlines and these airlines are probably telling them the 7E7 story and how they're probably leaning towards ordering the jet. Thus Airbus feels that they need to start developing a competitor to the 7E7 before it's too late. There's been a lot hesitantcy on part of airlines to order the 7E7 because they want to se what Airbus can produce.
I think that if Airbus said that they weren't going to develop an answer to the 7E7 then Boeing would be seeing more orders.
Keesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (10 years 4 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 7040 times:
"Boeing's problem is that they need to stop their people dreaming up these sales figures, and then looking foolish"
Boeing is/was telling a willing public the airline interest was overwelming, forecasting large orders by year end (buy now, or you might be too late), see how scared Airbus is, creating a magic admosphere around the 7e7 with low price settings & big fuel use reductions.
Airlines however are not the big public. They don´t believe until they see & cannot afford to fall for artist impression & expensive media campaigns.
There will almost certain be delays, weight increases, certification issues, integration complications etc, just like any new airliner, and probably a good deal of them (considering the new technology)
I see the 7e7 as a brave attempt of Boeing to regain a part of the middle of the market. But it won´t be an easy victory with a miracle plane as much of the public has become to believe.
The ´Dreamliner´ will become an ´Airliner´ and luckely that´s just Boeings thing.
Brons2 From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3015 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (10 years 4 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6990 times:
Nobody can say the DC-9 wasn't a success, but look how many orders that had when the prototype first flew.
According to him, the DC-9/MD-80 series never made a dime for McD. This is because the way they accounted for the development costs (Assigned a portion to each frame) and the way that they aggressively discounted. This despite 2200+ frames, the 3rd best selling airliner of all time.
Firings, if well done, are good for employee morale.
DfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 984 posts, RR: 51
Reply 14, posted (10 years 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 6782 times:
Well lets look at the 7E7's order history-
1. SQ delayed its decision on a regional/short-haul widebody fleet. This would have been several dozen aircraft.
2. The China airlines group was rumored to place an order for at least 50 in August, this order never materialized.
Had these orders been booked, Boeing could be standing at around ~130. Vietnam might place an order for 10-15, putting Boeing at around ~150. This makes me think there were two other carriers or one major order that never made the press.
There is the interest for 200 7E7s in one year, but Boeing likely jumped the gun between interest and order.
Kim777fan From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 510 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (10 years 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 6671 times:
Statement: An upgraded 330 would make a lot more sense for them in terms of fleet commonality than the 7E7."
Response: True but if the 7E7 show much better operating costs that Boeing is promising (as well as improved economics over an improved 330) then I think they will order it over the 330 despite commonality.
Agreed. Commonality is nice, but it really isn't the sacred cow it is made out to be and is just one component of cost savings. NW appears to be in better shape than their other legacy brethren (with the notable exception of CO), and fleet commonality hasn't exactly been one of NW's hallmarks.
LTBEWR From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13138 posts, RR: 15
Reply 17, posted (10 years 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 6654 times:
When only a few foreign airlines are the only ones whom can buy any aircraft and USA co's are too broke to buy/place orders for the forseeable future, then the expections were set too high. Such a/c may not be selling as expected as many 2 engined a/c, even ones 20+ years old are still very servicable and not obsolete. This isn't like the 50's to 70's where changes in a/c were very quick to become obsolete. Most larger (100+ pax) passanger aircraft in use today are not functionally obsolete. The 767 and A300 series a/c's are quite comparatable to the 7E7 in terms of capacity and probably not far more in their fuel use. Many of the older frames have already atmoritized their original purchase costs, and maintenance is probably still cheaper than buying a new a/c. There are many 767's in fleets today with a number in dessert storage and available for far less and more quickly delivered than a 7E7. Several years from now, when older 767's, A300's start to reach the enonomical feasable use life end and in need of major and expensive rebuilds, then the 7E7 will be ready. Let us hope that in a few more years there will be a better situation for all airlines.
UA772IAD From Australia, joined Jul 2004, 1730 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (10 years 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 6480 times:
Personally I have faith that this aircraft will sell well. It is relatively early. Obviously there are investers for the 7E7, but it's not even being built yet (is it off the drawing board completely?) I'm sure that once the ball really gets going, the orders will pour in. Compare, for example the number of 777's on order when UA launched it in '95 to how many were ordered over the next year or two. I think this plane will do well for big airlines with core 757-767 fleets. Obviously ANA and other Asian airlines will use it for their domestic services and lighter international destinations, and eventually it will grow into US fleets (My guess is AA, UA (if they get their act together) CO, NW: all with heavy 757 fleets. Like it was said earlier, the US market is not into launching A/C at this time. I also think that the 7E7 will sell well in the Asian and South American markets (as they seem to be big Boeing buyers) whereas Europe will not invest in it as much (as opposed to airbus). It will get going! (I hope because its a beautiful aircraft)
Propulsion From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2004, 294 posts, RR: 3
Reply 20, posted (10 years 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 5999 times:
I think many airlines are quite rightly waiting to pitch the 7e7 against what Airbus will offer in the form of an upgraded A330. Once the details are clear they will be in a better position to make a sound judgement on which aircraft suits them best.
The apparent 'disappointment' in 7e7 sales is not indicative of the designs future, as it is largely based on the assumed claim that they would in fact have told 200 by the end of the year. Given that the likelihood of this is declining by the day and that an exponential bananza of sudden large orders before 31st December is very far fetched, we can only establish from this discussion that Boeing's hype and airline interest has generated a greater magnitude of response from Airbus, which in turn has somewhat delayed a number of potential orders for the 7e7.
I very much hope and believe that the 7e7 will indeed be successful, although its proclaimed magnificent game-changing attributes will not result in anything other than a long-term steady trickle of small and medium sized new and repeat orders. Over time we can expect many to be built, but I suppose how many is also subject to the quality and appeal of the currently unknown Airbus response to this challenge.
A bus is a vehicle that runs twice as fast when you are after it as when you are in it.
Thrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2690 posts, RR: 10
Reply 21, posted (10 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 5498 times:
As someone stated earlier, I believe when the airlines get more money, orders for the 7E7 will skyrocket. AA, CO, UA, and DL (If the latter two survive), and NW, are all very likely 7E7 customers. It is much too early to judge the 7E7...it has not even entered service yet.
AvObserver From United States of America, joined Apr 2002, 2472 posts, RR: 9
Reply 22, posted (10 years 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 4979 times:
As with the current thread about Boeing's Stonecipher declaring the A380 "a failure", I take issue with the seeming intent of the poster to create flamebait. The wildly optimistic 7E7 order estimates by analysts inside and outside of Boeing should have been discouraged but weren't, owing to their publicity value. That strategy often backfires when reality prevails. There's still a fair shot at 100 orders (not all yet firm) by the end of THIS year, not necessarily the end of 2005, just NOT 200 orders as had been earlier and rather recklessly predicted. Of course, some potentials ARE holding out for more information on Airbus's move and this greatly helps stall 7E7 sales as Airbus hopes. However, "To date Airbus hasn't been very public with what their plan is for
an A330 successor" isn't a game Airbus can keep up indefinitely. They haven't been 'very public' because they aren't yet sure, themselves. If they hedge for too long, fence-sitting prospects will get impatient and walk over to Boeing. This happened with the aborted 747X, when airlines found Boeing somewhat cagey about providing detailed information about it. This helped to prevent possible launch customers from having enough confidence to place orders. It could happen here, as well, if Airbus doesn't soon provide very specific details on what exactly will be their response to the 7E7 will be. The recently dubbed, "A350", had better be a good deal more than a reworked A330-200 (the 747X wasn't an awful lot more than an enlarged -400 with a heavily modified wing) to actually hold onto customers in this market segment.