Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
7E7 Not Selling As Expected?  
User currently offlineFlying-Tiger From Germany, joined Aug 1999, 4161 posts, RR: 36
Posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 7656 times:

Two very interesting pieces:
- average order size is seen as only up to 15 frames, with one-digget numbers to be far more likely
- only about 100 7E7 sales till end of 2005 likely

=> it appears that Boeing has somewhat reduced its initial outlook, and appears to be quite jumpy on what Airbus might be planning to increase the competitiveness of the A330 - which isn´t so bad as many a.net members want us make to believe. Don´t forget, the ANZ order was a very close call for Boeing...

Regards
Flying-Tiger

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/191815_boeingorders22.html?source=rss

Wednesday, September 22, 2004

Few big orders for 7E7 are expected
Boeing exec: 50 jets would be a shock

By DARRELL HASSLER
BLOOMBERG NEWS

The Boeing Co., which launched its new 7E7 model with a 50-plane
order from All Nippon Airways Co., expects most customers to buy
fewer than 15 of the planes.

"I'd be shocked to see another 50-plane order in the near-term
horizon," John Feren, vice president of sales for Boeing's 7E7, said
in an interview in Ottawa during the Aerospace Industries
Association of Canada annual meeting.

Boeing, which lost its lead in the jetliner industry to Airbus SAS
last year, intends to use the 200- to 300-seat 7E7 to replace its
767s and 757s and help the company regain market share. It believes
most orders will be similar to two by Air New Zealand Ltd. last
month or Vietnam Airlines Corp.'s commitment announced yesterday to
buy four.

Boeing, which had $22.4 billion in jetliner sales last year,
launched the twin-engine 7E7 with Tokyo-based ANA's order, and the
first delivery is scheduled for 2008. The jet competes against the
A330 model made by Toulouse, France-based Airbus, which is
considering whether to upgrade its aircraft to counter the 7E7. That
could prompt airlines to put off buying decisions until their
choices become clear, Feren said. "I wouldn't be surprised that
there is an element of (airlines) waiting to see what Airbus does.
To date Airbus hasn't been very public with what their plan is for
an A330 successor."

Boeing is talking with about 20 airlines regarding orders and Feren
said he would be disappointed if none were completed before the end
of this year. He said he expects that the company will have at least
100 orders by the end of 2005.


Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
36 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineNWDC10 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 7512 times:

If only the airlines had money. Then we would be seeing "interesting" orders. Robert NWDC10

User currently offlineBoeingBus From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1596 posts, RR: 17
Reply 2, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 7404 times:

here is an order to make everyone smile... well, maybe not everyone.

"Chinese airlines also are close to announcing a commitment for up to 80 7E7s."

http://www.atwonline.com/indexfull.cfm?newsid=4567



Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
User currently offlineWhitehatter From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 7372 times:

It's early yet, and as has been rightly said there isn't much investment money about.

The 7E7 will be in production for 20 years or so. That's a lot more time to sell them. Traditional launch customers in the USA aren't buying at the moment which is a problem now, but won't always be.


User currently offlineNWAskyteam From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 75 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 7370 times:

I'd be willing to bet NW is one of those airlines taking the wait and see approach in relation to Airbus's response. An upgraded 330 would make a lot more sense for them in terms of fleet commonality than the 7E7.

User currently offlineWingman From Seychelles, joined May 1999, 2263 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 7271 times:

I wonder if Airbus is getting jumpy with the 380. The orders on that front seem to have slowed to a trickle.

User currently offlineCol From Malaysia, joined Nov 2003, 2116 posts, RR: 22
Reply 6, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 7249 times:

Like previously pointed out, we are four years from delivery. If Boeing only had 200 at first flight that would be a good start for this program. Boeing's problem is that they need to stop their people dreaming up these sales figures, and then looking foolish. By doing what they did, they have pushed Airbus harder to compete.

It will sell, but at market requirements rate, not Boeings.


User currently offlineSlider From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6816 posts, RR: 34
Reply 7, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 7210 times:

The 7E7 program is in its infancy, and most carriers are in NO position to assume additional capital liability at present time, much less for a new fleet type.

Give it a couple years and wait for the industry to shake out. This would be a great thread to debate again in a few years.


User currently offlineNWDC10 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 7190 times:

When will NW "retire" their DC'9s? When will NW "order" the 7E7? Robert NWDC10

User currently offlineNyc777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5762 posts, RR: 47
Reply 9, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 7171 times:

An upgraded 330 would make a lot more sense for them in terms of fleet commonality than the 7E7.

True but if the 7E7 show much better operating costs that Boeing is promising (as well as improved economics over an improved 330) then I think they will order it over the 330 despite commonality.

Boeing's problem is that they need to stop their people dreaming up these sales figures, and then looking foolish.

Well it's not just Boeing but a lot of Wall Street analyst have been pumpimg their estimates of Boeing stock based on the analysts' converations with airlines vis a vis the 7E7. They're very bullish on the stock in part to the potential orders that the 7E7 is expected to get. Also Airbus is a little nervous about the 7E7 and the orders it can generate. Airbus talks to the same airlines and these airlines are probably telling them the 7E7 story and how they're probably leaning towards ordering the jet. Thus Airbus feels that they need to start developing a competitor to the 7E7 before it's too late. There's been a lot hesitantcy on part of airlines to order the 7E7 because they want to se what Airbus can produce.

I think that if Airbus said that they weren't going to develop an answer to the 7E7 then Boeing would be seeing more orders.



That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineWhitehatter From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 7072 times:

The success of a model is measured by the number of units sold on the day it finishes production, not launch orders.

Nobody can say the DC-9 wasn't a success, but look how many orders that had when the prototype first flew.

None.

This whole 7E7 debate is pointless, and until ten years down the road when it's in service and the A330/767s flying today are all just about ready for the boneyard any kind of forecast is futile.

It's a tough time to be launching a new product, but Boeing has no choice than to modernise its lineup of offerings. The sales will happen, just not in the harsh market of today.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 7003 times:

"Boeing's problem is that they need to stop their people dreaming up these sales figures, and then looking foolish"

Boeing is/was telling a willing public the airline interest was overwelming, forecasting large orders by year end (buy now, or you might be too late), see how scared Airbus is, creating a magic admosphere around the 7e7 with low price settings & big fuel use reductions.

Airlines however are not the big public. They don´t believe until they see & cannot afford to fall for artist impression & expensive media campaigns.

There will almost certain be delays, weight increases, certification issues, integration complications etc, just like any new airliner, and probably a good deal of them (considering the new technology)

I see the 7e7 as a brave attempt of Boeing to regain a part of the middle of the market. But it won´t be an easy victory with a miracle plane as much of the public has become to believe.



The ´Dreamliner´ will become an ´Airliner´ and luckely that´s just Boeings thing.



User currently offlineBrons2 From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3013 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 6953 times:

Nobody can say the DC-9 wasn't a success, but look how many orders that had when the prototype first flew.

Cue Greg.....

According to him, the DC-9/MD-80 series never made a dime for McD. This is because the way they accounted for the development costs (Assigned a portion to each frame) and the way that they aggressively discounted. This despite 2200+ frames, the 3rd best selling airliner of all time.



Firings, if well done, are good for employee morale.
User currently offlineBENNETT123 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2004, 7612 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 6909 times:

I seem to remember that the B747 was launched on the basis of order for 25.

The rest is history.

The market in 2004 is irrelevant, even if airlines wanted 10,000, they can not have one until at least 2008.

The problem with long term forecasts is that they are generally wrong.


User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 977 posts, RR: 51
Reply 14, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 6745 times:

Well lets look at the 7E7's order history-

1. SQ delayed its decision on a regional/short-haul widebody fleet. This would have been several dozen aircraft.
2. The China airlines group was rumored to place an order for at least 50 in August, this order never materialized.

Had these orders been booked, Boeing could be standing at around ~130. Vietnam might place an order for 10-15, putting Boeing at around ~150. This makes me think there were two other carriers or one major order that never made the press.

There is the interest for 200 7E7s in one year, but Boeing likely jumped the gun between interest and order.


User currently offlineKim777fan From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 510 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 6634 times:

Statement: An upgraded 330 would make a lot more sense for them in terms of fleet commonality than the 7E7."

Response: True but if the 7E7 show much better operating costs that Boeing is promising (as well as improved economics over an improved 330) then I think they will order it over the 330 despite commonality.

Agreed. Commonality is nice, but it really isn't the sacred cow it is made out to be and is just one component of cost savings. NW appears to be in better shape than their other legacy brethren (with the notable exception of CO), and fleet commonality hasn't exactly been one of NW's hallmarks.


User currently offlineKim777fan From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 510 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 6627 times:

Oh... and we even got though SEVEN (!!!!) whole posts before the term "DC9" came up!! Congratulations!! The therapy seems to be helping!  Big thumbs up

User currently offlineLTBEWR From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13115 posts, RR: 12
Reply 17, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 6617 times:

When only a few foreign airlines are the only ones whom can buy any aircraft and USA co's are too broke to buy/place orders for the forseeable future, then the expections were set too high. Such a/c may not be selling as expected as many 2 engined a/c, even ones 20+ years old are still very servicable and not obsolete. This isn't like the 50's to 70's where changes in a/c were very quick to become obsolete. Most larger (100+ pax) passanger aircraft in use today are not functionally obsolete. The 767 and A300 series a/c's are quite comparatable to the 7E7 in terms of capacity and probably not far more in their fuel use. Many of the older frames have already atmoritized their original purchase costs, and maintenance is probably still cheaper than buying a new a/c. There are many 767's in fleets today with a number in dessert storage and available for far less and more quickly delivered than a 7E7. Several years from now, when older 767's, A300's start to reach the enonomical feasable use life end and in need of major and expensive rebuilds, then the 7E7 will be ready. Let us hope that in a few more years there will be a better situation for all airlines.

User currently offlineUA772IAD From Australia, joined Jul 2004, 1730 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 6443 times:

Personally I have faith that this aircraft will sell well. It is relatively early. Obviously there are investers for the 7E7, but it's not even being built yet (is it off the drawing board completely?) I'm sure that once the ball really gets going, the orders will pour in. Compare, for example the number of 777's on order when UA launched it in '95 to how many were ordered over the next year or two. I think this plane will do well for big airlines with core 757-767 fleets. Obviously ANA and other Asian airlines will use it for their domestic services and lighter international destinations, and eventually it will grow into US fleets (My guess is AA, UA (if they get their act together) CO, NW: all with heavy 757 fleets. Like it was said earlier, the US market is not into launching A/C at this time. I also think that the 7E7 will sell well in the Asian and South American markets (as they seem to be big Boeing buyers) whereas Europe will not invest in it as much (as opposed to airbus). It will get going! (I hope because its a beautiful aircraft)


User currently offlineDeltabobo From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 206 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 6053 times:

Wait until DL gets out of the hole, and their 757/767 fleet gets old, then that will be an order!


Dispatchers...saving pilots from themselves and their egos since 1938!
User currently offlinePropulsion From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2004, 294 posts, RR: 3
Reply 20, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 5962 times:


I think many airlines are quite rightly waiting to pitch the 7e7 against what Airbus will offer in the form of an upgraded A330. Once the details are clear they will be in a better position to make a sound judgement on which aircraft suits them best.

The apparent 'disappointment' in 7e7 sales is not indicative of the designs future, as it is largely based on the assumed claim that they would in fact have told 200 by the end of the year. Given that the likelihood of this is declining by the day and that an exponential bananza of sudden large orders before 31st December is very far fetched, we can only establish from this discussion that Boeing's hype and airline interest has generated a greater magnitude of response from Airbus, which in turn has somewhat delayed a number of potential orders for the 7e7.

I very much hope and believe that the 7e7 will indeed be successful, although its proclaimed magnificent game-changing attributes will not result in anything other than a long-term steady trickle of small and medium sized new and repeat orders. Over time we can expect many to be built, but I suppose how many is also subject to the quality and appeal of the currently unknown Airbus response to this challenge.



A bus is a vehicle that runs twice as fast when you are after it as when you are in it.
User currently offlineThrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2690 posts, RR: 10
Reply 21, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5461 times:

As someone stated earlier, I believe when the airlines get more money, orders for the 7E7 will skyrocket. AA, CO, UA, and DL (If the latter two survive), and NW, are all very likely 7E7 customers. It is much too early to judge the 7E7...it has not even entered service yet.


Fly one thing; Fly it well
User currently offlineAvObserver From United States of America, joined Apr 2002, 2472 posts, RR: 9
Reply 22, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 4942 times:

As with the current thread about Boeing's Stonecipher declaring the A380 "a failure", I take issue with the seeming intent of the poster to create flamebait. The wildly optimistic 7E7 order estimates by analysts inside and outside of Boeing should have been discouraged but weren't, owing to their publicity value. That strategy often backfires when reality prevails. There's still a fair shot at 100 orders (not all yet firm) by the end of THIS year, not necessarily the end of 2005, just NOT 200 orders as had been earlier and rather recklessly predicted. Of course, some potentials ARE holding out for more information on Airbus's move and this greatly helps stall 7E7 sales as Airbus hopes. However, "To date Airbus hasn't been very public with what their plan is for
an A330 successor" isn't a game Airbus can keep up indefinitely. They haven't been 'very public' because they aren't yet sure, themselves. If they hedge for too long, fence-sitting prospects will get impatient and walk over to Boeing. This happened with the aborted 747X, when airlines found Boeing somewhat cagey about providing detailed information about it. This helped to prevent possible launch customers from having enough confidence to place orders. It could happen here, as well, if Airbus doesn't soon provide very specific details on what exactly will be their response to the 7E7 will be. The recently dubbed, "A350", had better be a good deal more than a reworked A330-200 (the 747X wasn't an awful lot more than an enlarged -400 with a heavily modified wing) to actually hold onto customers in this market segment.


User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 4897 times:

I do not think FT meant to create flamebait necessarily. Fair question.

Boeing faces possible civil liability if their numbers were stretched too far out of whack. I would be surprised if they risked a lawsuit or several just for the PR value.


User currently offlineNWDC10 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (9 years 12 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 4865 times:

"Just because a jet is alittle more fuel efficient, DOESN'T mean it will be purchased" Robert NWDC10

25 Planemaker : I recomend that every one re-read LTBEWR´s Post No. 17... and then factor in the inevitable airline consolidations that will be happening around the
26 BestWestern : Is the sentiment here is that Boeing are about five years too early with the 7e7 launch if the Main 7e7 capacity needers (North American airlines) pla
27 Lufthansa : I said it before and Im going to say it again. Firstly, i think the 7e7 looks like a good airplane, that will be comfortable, and have improved featur
28 Aapilot2b : It is too early for anyone to be spelling out a gloomy picture for the 7E7. Remember A380 announcements have picked up from a very slow beginning. The
29 Beaucaire : Boeing dit avoir reçu des acomptes pour 200 exemplaires du 7E7 BERLIN, 23 septembre (Reuters) - Boeing < BOEING CO > a reçu des acomptes pour 200 ex
30 Dayflyer : here is an order to make everyone smile... well, maybe not everyone. "Chinese airlines also are close to announcing a commitment for up to 80 7E7s." h
31 BoeingBus : UPDATE 1-Boeing says has up to 200 down payments for 7E7 Thu Sep 23, 2004 08:05 AM ET (Adds more quotes, background) BERLIN, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Boein
32 Post contains images Jakob77 : [urlhttp://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh18762_2004-09-23_12-05-53_l23538638_newsml[/url] deposits for 252 7E7s
33 Clipperaurora : gordon bethune of CO says that he loves the 7e7 and that CO would be a customer under better circumstances
34 Na : Like the current A380 thread with Stonecipher´s comments, which remind me of the reaction of an offended child, this thread about the 7E7 in danger o
35 Post contains links Jano : Boeing Has Up To 200 7E7 Down Payments http://news.airwise.com/stories/2004/09/1095937895.html
36 N328KF : Are we sure this thread wasn't started by KEESJE or Solnabo as FUD?
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
B6 At EWR: Not Going As Expected? posted Thu Dec 29 2005 20:56:50 by JetBluefan1
Why Is BMed Not Selling Freetown Flights? posted Thu Sep 14 2006 18:28:11 by ZuluTime
Travelex Not Selling Trip Insurance For Northwest? posted Tue May 9 2006 07:50:12 by DC10Widebody
As Expected - The Bmi 767 Goes Tech In Barbados posted Thu Mar 2 2006 15:09:44 by BestWestern
ATA Not Selling Seats After 2/14/06? posted Sat Oct 22 2005 16:09:49 by Dadoftyler
Jet’s Flights To Paris Not Approved As Yet posted Thu Mar 31 2005 21:47:28 by Airish
US Not Selling Planes And Many New Routes! posted Sun Oct 17 2004 02:02:55 by JoFMO
US Airways Is Not Selling Aircraft posted Sat Oct 16 2004 23:43:36 by Behramjee
JetBlue Not Selling Well BOS-DEN posted Wed Dec 31 2003 16:01:04 by JetBluefan1
Why Are The A318 And 737-600s Not Selling? posted Fri Dec 19 2003 21:54:39 by Thrust