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A380: What Sales Would Make Boeing Compete?  
User currently offlineA380900 From France, joined Dec 2003, 1116 posts, RR: 1
Posted (10 years 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 3215 times:

Stonecipher has said that if the A380 sells like hot cakes, Boeing would enter the competition. What sales level would trigger a move from Boeing in your opinion?

I'd say 300 orders before 2008 would cause them to enter the market (it should in my view).

[Edited 2004-09-27 06:13:44]

14 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 1, posted (10 years 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 3195 times:

It won't.

Boeing believes the market is limited. The more Airbus sells, the less space Boeing believes there is.

Same thing as the DC-10 v L-1011. There was no room for both, and even sales would have doomed both programs. The DC-10 getting an edge ensured its success.

N


User currently offlineUa777222 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 3348 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (10 years 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 3180 times:

I agree with Gigneil,

The DC-10/L-1011 compairason is perfect. The guy with the head start in research and investments will get the buyers at first. Yes their numbers will rise but in the end they will die out b/c hell they're like non-other and b/c they are in a market of their own (a market that will never be filled when airlines have issues filling the seats they already own) they will be left out to dry by all the other guys.

It's like the big bully at school. There's only one but when the little guys all get together they'll kick his ass any day. If Boeing were to hit the market after Airbus they too will be doomed. Not an a vs. b thing at all. It's the same for either a/c maker. If Boeing is first they are playing their cards VERY carefully. And then Airbus gets in on it after Boeing they too are playing their cards but a whole lot more caucious than the next guy.

If Boeing were to stay with the a/c they currently have the 737-6-7-8-9-BBJ1-BBJ2, 747-400-400/ER-400ERF, 767-2/ER-3/ER-4/ER (??), 777-200-200/ER-300-300ER, 7E7-8-9. If Boeing were to focous on the 7e7 they will be able, in the next 10 years or so, to produce a whole new line of a/c that would serve the markets as the 737,747,757,767,777 famies but with better technology.

It is all too much for a wee sole such as myself.

Have yourselves a great night.

Thanks again.

UA777222

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User currently offlineLehpron From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 7028 posts, RR: 21
Reply 3, posted (10 years 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 3176 times:

At this point I agree with Gigneil at least in the short term. I do not think sales of unit products determine competition, rather how many more people travel certain routes. Since A380 is a large capacity airliner, it would be placed where there can potentially be a whole lot of traffic and will continue to rise beyond the initial estimates.

Besides nothing is set in stone since the market is dependent on people and people change [their preferences, priorities, destination for business/pleasure, some that can only now afford and not before, etc]. Something could happen within 10 years that could send twice or thrice as many people on certain routes. If a current product can't do it, a derivative or a whole new product may have to.




The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
User currently offlineCloudy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (10 years 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 3143 times:

What is important to Boeing's decision is not the number of A380 orders but how it does in airline service. Boeing looks not at current orders, but what future orders are likely - considering passenger demand, oil prices, etc. Some half-educated guesses.....

.........If the plane is pretty good but airlines have trouble filling the seats profitably, Boeing will not build a competitor. This was the case for the 747 for a very long time, and that is one reason it has not had a true competitor until recently.

.........If the plane is sort of a dog, like the MD-11, but airlines have no trouble filling the seats profitably, a competior will be built in short order.

.........If the plane is good and ailines have no trouble filling the seats, a competitor may eventually be built but other priorities (such as a 737 replacement) will come first.

........If the plane is a dog and the airlines can't fill the seats, Boeing will probably do no more than a conservative update of the 747 or 777, in the hopes that their plane will be small enough and good enough to be a better competitor. But it is harder to guess what they will do in this situation than in the others. They could just get complacent and sit pretty. That is what they have done in the past when they were ahead. The modern Boeing company does not like to innovate unless absolutely forced to. It doesn't the next quarterly earnings report. Don't worry, Boeing fans. Airbus is probably going to also be more like this in the future now that its product line is complete.

Boeing argues that until recently, MOST(highlighted because some in this forum don't like to hear this word. It prevents them from ruining discussions.) passenger 747's were bought more for range than capacity. Once planes appeared with the same or better range and a little less capacity, such as the newer -B and -C market 777's and A340's, the 747 was largely abandoned as a new build passenger airplane. Airbus argues that this was due to newer technology on the newer designs. Probably both are right to some degree.

As for the DC-10/L1011 comparison - the DC-10 succeeded technically. It also succeeded in sales. It did not succeed in profit. That is what matters in the commercial world. Products with DIRECT competitors are far less likely to be profitable than products without such competitors. Airbus and Boeing, as well as the RJ makers, avoid direct competition in their development programs when they can.


User currently offlineNa From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10765 posts, RR: 9
Reply 5, posted (10 years 4 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 3033 times:

1:1 head-on surely would be stupid and whatever the A380 will be, a big success or a mediocre seller, Boeing won´t built something in exactly that size and I find it hard to believe that it is even possible that this market segment could sustain two product-lines while the gap between 747 and A380 remains empty.

Boeing´s longterm-plan is 3 productlines. The first one under this plan is the 7E7, and after that the 737/717 will be replaced. Parallel or shortly after that the 777/747 will be succeeded by one aircraft that will most likely be nearer in basic size to the 747 than to the 777 because the 7E7 will surely "eat away" some 777-200 sales and Boeing must cover the whole market up to the A380 with such a new plane.



User currently offlineStarlionblue From Greenland, joined Feb 2004, 17068 posts, RR: 66
Reply 6, posted (10 years 4 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 2940 times:

Stonecipher has said that if the A380 sells like hot cakes, Boeing would enter the competition. What sales level would trigger a move from Boeing in your opinion?

I'd say 300 orders before 2008 would cause them to enter the market (it should in my view).


It could be argued that if the 380 sells 500 units, there is no space left for a competitor. Decisions, decisions...



"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots."
User currently offlineRj111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (10 years 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 2849 times:

IMO its an almost impossible task for Boeing to determine when to build a competing a/c, considering there will be a significant period of development.

Lets look at this syntax

if in 5 years total A380 orders and deliveries stands at

200-399: No demand for 2
400-599: Majority of the market gone to justify 2
600+: Already Saturated Market
1500+: Should we a have built that 747adv afterall?

Airbus has been opportunist in this area and it may pay off.


User currently offlineBoeingBus From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1597 posts, RR: 18
Reply 8, posted (10 years 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 2750 times:

The 747 ADV will happen... the A380 is too big to fill the 747 replacement 1 for 1.

That said, Boeing will continue in the jumbo jet business but I don't think Boeing will ever have a jet the size of the A380... it's just too big for 95 to 99% percent of the airliners as only a handful have purchased thus far. There will be a point where the A380 is going to be a tougher sell.

The 747 is sized right for medium to large markets where the A380 will serve large markets/hubs.

Boeing is right sticking to the 747ADV and not spend the R&D dollars that is needed for the super jumbo jet... Boeing is more concerned with the 737 future replacement.

Airbus took charge of this niche and kudos for them.

Overall, it's a Win - Win if you ask me...



Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
User currently offlineLehpron From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 7028 posts, RR: 21
Reply 9, posted (10 years 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 2596 times:

>> "This was the case for the 747 for a very long time, and that is one reason it has not had a true competitor until recently." <<

How long was this separation? It might give insight as to when we can forecast an A380 competitor. Although we must be able to see the market forecast stats of the itme as well, like if the percentanges are smaller in the begining, then it will be a while before we see another superjumbo.

I think however that the competitor, or alternate, will come out late enough to qualify for a replacement -- holding on to Boeing's argument of thin market.

BUT...

Boeing's argument was a 20-year projection done in the late 90's to early 2k's. That will change as time has that tendency.



The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
User currently offlineKen777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8329 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (10 years 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 2568 times:

I think that Boeing has the advantage in the 747 size market and Airbus has the advantage in the 380 size. Going into each other's turn is going to be very expensive and it will be difficult to be profitable.

There will, I believe, continue to be a need for a plane the size of the 747 as well as the 380, just as there is a need for planes the size of a 767 and 777. Right now Airbus is enjoying 380 sales while the 747 is dragging, but airlines already have 747s - now they need to fill the 380 slot.

Only time will tell if the decision to buy a 380 is a wise one. I'm not talking about the 380 not performing as promised - the airlines will make sure it does - but in terms of how profitable it is. Can the fill the plane to a profitable level with an uncertain future? The last few years have taught us that we can't take "normal" operations for granted.

It's up in the air right now for both A & B, but I believe that they will work to maintain their advantage and avoid costly ventures into the other's market.


User currently offlineAviasian From Singapore, joined Jan 2001, 1489 posts, RR: 14
Reply 11, posted (10 years 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 2523 times:

Stonecipher has said that if the A380 sells like hot cakes, Boeing would enter the competition. What sales level would trigger a move from Boeing in your opinion?

By the time the A380 sells like hot cakes, Stonecipher had better be happy to find crumbs. True - that there is not enough demand for two similar products to compete head-on, but Boeing had the opportunity to take the lead had it not continue to poo-pooh on the prospects for a high capacity aircraft. 134 orders even before the first flight is sufficient indicator - and you have not yet seen any from China (watch this forum for such a development really soon). I also feel that at some point, a Japanese order will surely happen.

Airbus could also surely use the A380 to anchor sales prospects for other Airbus airliners - and/or vice versa.

KC Sim
Bangkok


User currently offlineBoeingBus From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1597 posts, RR: 18
Reply 12, posted (10 years 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 2517 times:

and by the time this sells like hotcakes... Stonecipher is long gone... lol...

I don't think you will see huge numbers for the A380 in at least another 5 years.. airlines are waiting to see how reliable and economically viable this monster is before they stuff 550 plus people in it...

It's a huge investment and not many airliners have money.



Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 984 posts, RR: 51
Reply 13, posted (10 years 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 2505 times:

Let's say that in 2025 the very large aircraft market begins to pick-up steam. If by this time the market could support two aircraft, Boeing could enter with an all-new design that would be 10-15 years younger than the A380. Boeing might be going up against an updated or second-generation A380 by this time, but if the market does surge, Boeing might end up with the newer (didn't say better) product....

Then again, it might just end up like the 747 with no one bothering for 30 years.


User currently offlineJulius2005 From Cuba, joined Sep 2004, 18 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (10 years 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 2450 times:

I think 747s are already stablished on the market and are used for most of the airlines in the world and it will not happen that quick with 380s they gonna have to fullfit their own routes on the market


JRHAV
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