Na From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 11045 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (10 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3905 times:
Boeing claims there is "considerable" interest, whatever that means. Marketing departments talk a lot of bullshit. They have to.
The only major airline that has openly expressed to be interested in the 747 Advanced is CX.
But I assume that JAL and ANA could be interested as they seem to be reluctant to order A380s, but still need something bigger than 773s to start replacing their early 744s by 2010.
Qantas, NWA, SIA are possible customers as well. Once SIA has phased out the 744 and got A380s they will find the gap between 773s and A380s is to big to be ignored.
Here in Europe BA and LH are at least not opposed to a new 747.
If you look at the major 744 operators which are not keen to order A380s you will see that there is a potential of more than 100 744s which need replacements between 2009 (likely 747 Adv. entry-date into service) and 2015.
BA, CX and JAL alone have ca. 50 744s which will be 20 years old during this period.
No airline is under pressure to replace their relatively new 744s though. And this won´t change in the next 3-4 years. I see that as a major reason why progress on this project is very slow.
Compared to that airlines have far more issues in the 7E7/A332 class where Hundreds of 767s and A310s need to be replaced pretty soon.
Hz747300 From Hong Kong, joined Mar 2004, 1816 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (10 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3874 times:
I suppose the difference between 365 and 555 in regular configuration is quite a bit. If the 744-Adv came in at 450-460 neighborhood it could fill that middle niche. And remember with four engines, you are fo(u)rever safe!!!
Boeing will probably cannabilize the 7E7 technology onto other aircraft going forward--some would call it cobbling, I call it good business.
DIA From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3273 posts, RR: 26
Reply 4, posted (10 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3854 times:
I reflect the sentiments that there is a gap there that will need to be filled by an a/c the size of the proposed 744Advanced. I, for one, do think that Boeing will eventually develop it, unless they come up with a totally new design for this pax segment. . .which I cannot forsee them doing right now.
Any word on the A380-Shrink project?
Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
DfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1049 posts, RR: 51
Reply 5, posted (10 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3847 times:
Whitehatter.. didn't you try to convince me that BA would not be a likely 747-Adv customer last time we had this debate
I see likely customers including- JL, CX, ANA, NW, UA, and BA. If Boeing cannabalizes the 7E7 technology, they might have themselves a mechanical commonality selling point. Note that many likely 747-Adv customers are likely 7E7 customers....
Ken777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8682 posts, RR: 9
Reply 8, posted (10 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 3538 times:
I'm one of those that believe there needs to be a plane in the 747 size slot. A can't stretch the 340 yet again (or can they?) and the 747 has been a solid performer for a long time. Significantly improving the operational economics and providing a small increase in pax capacity will look very good.
I also believe that the freight side will continue to grow in importance and the 747 will work well in that are. Boeing will, however, have a strong challenger in the 380 in this area and operational costs and overall speed (in-flight and turn around times on the ground) are going to be critical.
I also believe that Boeing will move on the 747A when they are happy with the technology in the 7E7. There is no doubt in my mind that they are identifying every advancement in the 7E7 for future use in all lines and the 747 is next in line for work.
Carpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 3011 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (10 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 3553 times:
You can exclude NH from 747Advanced potential customers. They are certainly not going to need a domestic version since 773 will be the biggest aircraft in the future. And why buy a handful for int'l routes. NH wants a very standaradized fleet in the future: 73G for narrow-body, 7E7 for medium-size aircraft and most likely 777 for large-size. The 773ER will do fine.
JL will certainly be a prime candidate as will OZ, maybe KE, and most Asian airlines that haven't ordered the A380 and/or 773ER in large numbers, (eg. GA, CX, MH, TG, PR ,CI).
BA would be highly likely customer in Europe.
Other unknowns are KL, LH, UA, & NW plus if a freighter aircraft is developed at the same time, which will be most likely, this can add all the 74F operators into this group.
N1120a From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 27530 posts, RR: 74
Reply 10, posted (10 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 3524 times:
LH has already said they want the 747ADV for Cargo. They stated that they thought the 744 QLR was too small and the A380 too big and has no nose loading so they wanted this plane. This was like 2 years ago. Well, actually, they said they wanted the 747X, which is would have been the same size as the 747ADV but use similar engines to the A380. Additionally, their pilots love the 744 and would probably lobby for another 747
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
LHR27C From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2004, 1279 posts, RR: 15
Reply 12, posted (10 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 3401 times:
I agree that it would make sense for Boeing to harness the 7E7 technology for its future aircraft projects, in which case the 747ADV would have a very strong selling point. For BA, a loyal Boeing long haul customer for many years, this would be ideal: an aircraft filling the gap between 744 and A380, continuing their 747 operation and avoiding (some of) the logistical problems associated with the sheer size of the A380. Equally it would still make good use of the sought-after LHR slots, whereas switching to the 773 as is speculated would mean more slots needed to provide the same passenger capacity. BA have already stated that they are going to see how the 7E7 and A380 perform before making any firm orders, but if they did purchase some 7E7s as a 767 replacement this could encourage a commitment to the 747ADV.
I would love to see a 747ADV, but I don't think we will see one for some years yet.
Once you have tasted flight, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned forever skyward
KLMCedric From Belgium, joined Dec 2003, 812 posts, RR: 21
Reply 14, posted (10 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 3250 times:
Don't rule out KLM to replace their 5 all pax 744's.
They've clearly stated in the past they have no interest in the A-380.
But they will always need some 400+ capacity aircraft for such routes as AMS-PBM,
Fluorine From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2004, 55 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (10 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 3219 times:
I believe that the A380s can only fill up the new market for 500+ seats which is and will be quite small in the future.
The B747ADV is somehow more suitable for the airlines. Airlines may not be able to fill up an A380 all the time and they will need a B747ADV. B747ADV can be used to replace the current B744s which an A380 cannot replace it totally. The B737ADV can fill up the gap between B773 and A380. The fuel price is going up too , and I think more airlines will be interested in B747ADV.
Na From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 11045 posts, RR: 9
Reply 16, posted (10 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3181 times:
If Boeing can manage the engines to be put on 7E7 resp. 747Advanced to be more economical than the engines of 777/A340 a 747Advanced can only be a winner because such an airplane could reclaim marketshare from 773ER and A346.
StickShaker From Australia, joined Sep 2004, 774 posts, RR: 5
Reply 17, posted (10 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3181 times:
Boeing suprised many industry observers when they abandoned the large aircraft market in favour of the 777. Their recognition that there may in fact be a market for such aircraft is an indication that Boeing are now (together with the 7e7 program) refocussed on their core business after several years of dubious management.
Boeing have the opportunity to do exactly what Airbus is doing with the A350 - build a low cost derivative of a proven design. There is a huge number of 747's due for replacement in the next few years and many operators may prefer to stay with a 747 rather than incurr the expense of introducing a new type (A380). The 747 is a very popular aircraft with airlines and passengers and the second hand market is very tight. The stretch and extra 40 pax will prevent the 747A from stealing sales from the 773 but still slot in neatly between the 773/346 and 380 (and shuts the door on any 380-700 shrink).
The argument in favour of the 747A has some parallels to that in favour of the A350 - the low cost low risk derivative as an alternative to a new design.