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Cheap ASS Airfares Are NOT Good For The Economy!  
User currently offlineJohn From United States, joined Sep 1999, 1301 posts, RR: 8
Posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 3361 times:

Despite what some of you may believe! These ridiculous fares are putting thousands of people out of work and crippling this industry to the point of desperation! Something's gotta give here folks! As of today, I'm making LESS per hour than I did in 1988!! WTF is wrong with this picture?

44 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineVonRichtofen From Canada, joined Nov 2000, 4430 posts, RR: 50
Reply 1, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 3315 times:

I agree with you to an extent. The fares have to stabilize at some point. Even the LCC's can't survive with the ridiculously low fares around. In Canada things are settling down a bit. When an LCC enters a new market they have really low fares, but that's just to drum up initial business. For example when Jetsgo first started flying YYZ-YYC-YYC they had REALLY low fares. But now they are up to what everybody else is charging.

Hopefully things will settle down a bit in the US as well.




Word
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 3257 times:

Despite what some of you may believe! These ridiculous fares are putting thousands of people out of work and crippling this industry to the point of desperation!

*Points at WN* What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. I'm a supporter of off-shoring and I stand by that. If you can't survive, maybe you don't deserve to.

Take AA for example. Rationalizing their fleet, making payroll cuts, dealing with outrageous fuel prices, and learning to compete with LCCs have made AA a better airline than it ever has before. When it comes to today's market conditions, there are way more factors at work than just LCCs.

As of today, I'm making LESS per hour than I did in 1988!! WTF is wrong with this picture?

Boo hoo hoo  Crying

Take a trip to Ciudad Juarez before you bitch to me about how little oppurtunity you have  Insane

User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 3773 posts, RR: 22
Reply 3, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 3197 times:

Something's gotta give here folks!

Something is giving... the legacy carriers are slowly starting to cut back on domestic capacity.

Even the LCC's can't survive with the ridiculously low fares around.

Some continue to thrive, witness SWA's $112-million profit for the last qtr. For several LCC's it is not an issue of survival but of reduced profits.

User currently offlineMiguel0881 From United States, joined Sep 2004, 62 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 3194 times:

So we all get to decide our own salaries now? Pretty soon the guy down at McDonald's will be getting $50/hour just because he feels he deserves it. If the market can't pay you what you want, find a new job. This is America after all.

User currently offlineAcidradio From United States, joined Mar 2001, 1603 posts, RR: 10
Reply 5, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 3083 times:

Eventually, some of the airlines that are too weak to take all these low fares will collapse, prices will move up again and things will change. This is basic supply and demand economics. There is way too much supply on the market right now, which keeps the prices low. Airlines are cyclical and this happens all the time. Remember the good days when pay was more normal, hiring was constant and opportunities abounded? You have to take the good with the bad.


Ich haben zwei Platzspielen und ein Microphone
User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 2253 posts, RR: 10
Reply 6, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 3070 times:

Sorry John, but they're all right.

This all comes down to supply and demand. You know, it may be actually good for the economy if you loose your job. I am not saying that to be mean. I am trying to point out to you that what is good for the economy as a whole isn't necessarily good for individual companies.

The US market sufferes from over capacity. Lately, we've seen AA, UA and CO all talk about streamling capacity. We've just had UA's press release, and CO have been switching larger aircraft to international (so more flights are operated by smaller 737s than 757s etc) and got rid of the MD-80s.

Really, what we need to see now is some more rationalisation. Maybe a UA/CO merger would do it, plus a getting rid of some capacity (probably US Airways) When that happens, load factors will increase and those companies will make modest profits. The reason is is possible for you to make what you made in 1988 is probably because in 1998 you were overpaid. Unions probably drove up your wages to levels far above your skill base. The reality is, many airline jobs can be done by just about anybody. Domestic flight attends, gate agents, baggage handlers etc.... these aren't all highly skilled jobs. International FA's need a few more skills, but the reality is, if there was some special skill here the market wouldn't be able to drive wages down. You see, the only reason it can, is because there are so many ppl out there willing to do this job at a low rate. Many, are happy to do it just for a basic wage so they can get ID95.

You don't see this situation with nurses, for example. So John, my response to you, is if you want more bucks, go back to school.
That is why the pilots earn so much. They had to invest a hell of a lot of time and a great deal of money to aquire that skill to get them in that situation.

Finally, if we are talking about the economy, how much less business do you think will happen in america as a result of an expensive inefficient system? How many business deals wouldn't be done, opportunity's not noticed, and all that. A few companies strugglying doesnt make the economy bad. Now if Southwest, Airtran, and Jetblue can all post millions and millions in profits, the problem isn't with the economy.
The economy has changed. People are no longer willing to pay $800 for a two hour flight return, and UA has started to realise that with TED. expect to see more TED destinations, or perhaps something similar but with a bit more sophsiticated branding to appeal to business travellers. (think Qantas Cityflyer)
UA and CO seem to have seen the light and moving to more international flying.

User currently offlineSHUPirate1 From United States, joined Sep 2003, 3568 posts, RR: 25
Reply 7, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 3023 times:

Just out of curiousity, what is an "ASS" airfare? Is that where they will transport a rear end for a dollar, and then they charge 10 dollars for each leg, a dollar for each foot, 50 dollars for a chest, 10 dollars for each arm, a dollar for each finger, and 1000 dollars for a head? And when is Ryanair going to come up with this? Better yet, maybe Delta should be doing this too...seems like a great way to make money...


Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
User currently offlineUsatoeze From United States, joined Feb 2004, 358 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 2917 times:

If the market can't pay you what you want, find a new job. This is America after all.

Great point!

The flexibility of our labor market is one of the competitive advantages we have over some other parts of the world.






War is a very poor political tool
User currently offlineJohn From United States, joined Sep 1999, 1301 posts, RR: 8
Reply 9, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 2794 times:

You give your heart and soul to an airline for 20+ years and this is the thanks you get...I never expected to get rich working for an airline and I've always enjoyed what I do for a living, but ENOUGH is ENOUGH! And you're absolutely right, We WILL have to look for other employment because we won't be able to support our families and pay our mortgages any longer! The state of this industry is VERY, VERY SAD! And who are they going to hire to replace us? Young kids at $7.50 an hour? I'm sorry, but there goes your experience and customer service right down the schitta! AND you think people are going to work for those WAl-Mart wages in places like New York, Boston, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, San Francisco?? yea...right!! And put up with the crap we put up with on a daily basis, not to mention the overwhelming responsibilities!? Ya know what? I wish some of you could put yourself in our positions for one minute (and think about what you're saying) instead of being so f'*king cynical!

User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 3773 posts, RR: 22
Reply 10, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 2695 times:

John, I don't think that anyone is being cynical. Aviation is not unique to the economics of competition and consumer choice. Talk to the good people of Michigan... they can give you a lot more tales of heart ache than you can imagine. And BTW, GM just announced this week that they are laying off another 12,000 workers (mainly in Europe this time.) Unfortunately, you are not alone... there are millions of people around the world in different industries that are in your same position.

User currently offlineN1120a From United States, joined Dec 2003, 23399 posts, RR: 87
Reply 11, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 2680 times:

It is not about greedy unions, because they were just keeping the airlines honest when they were making billions and trying to not share with the employees. It is not about excess capacity, because americans have shown the willingness to fly, we are still not back at pre-9/11 levels, let alone what was projected. It is about bad airline management making bad deals and about bad governments dumping the economy down the toilet. And it is certainly not about low fares, as Southwest was around way before all this, and everyone seemed to get along somehow


Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineTOLtommy From United States, joined Dec 2003, 2583 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 2680 times:

John -

You are obviously angry right now, and that's understandable. But I have to point out to you a few interesting facts. You also currently pay less IN REAL DOLLARS than you did in 1988 for items like gasoline, food, housing and clothing. Why? Because the market forced the suppliers to become more efficient, or get out of the business. I'm sure that you've never complained that gas was too cheap, and it drove the small mom and pop stations out of business. Heck, I'll even bet you've shopped in a Wal-Mart, or similar store!

Given yesterday's news, I'll assume that you are a US employee. May I ask what your position is? If you are going to come in and vent, give us all the facts, friend.

In those 20 years you refer to, it was well known that US had a cost problem due to operating inefficiencies. But people like you insisted on "Parity +1%", and fought work rule changes that would have allowed your company to compete with the growing threat of LCC's.

As long as the frequent flyer program kept 'em loyal, the economy stayed good, and they had no other real choice everything was fine. You could keep those industry leading wages and inefficient work rules. But your management got greedy and cut travel agents out of the loop by eliminating commissions. You didn't complain, did you? After all, they were just order takers, right? Why shouldn't they work for free, and still provide 60-70% of your customers? But oops, now your customers could easily see that LOWER fares were available, so guess what, they bought 'em! Go figure! And those travel agent suddenly had no incentive to sell those higher fares, so they sold the cheap ones! You really showed them, huh?

Then you had the economy go into recession near the end of the Clinton administration, and 9/11 followed. The industry got billions of dollars in direct handouts and loan guarantees following 9/11. But the legacy carriers still can't figure out how to make a buck, and the LCC's can. Sorry. Not my problem. I'll bet WN has had no problem hiring at their starting wage level along the east coast. Why? Thinks like profit sharing and stock plans give them a chance to earn real money through incentives for performance.

There are too many people chasing too few jobs in this business. That means competition, something the legacy carriers, and their employees are completely unprepared for. You don't want your kids to have to work for Wal-Mart wages? Me neither. I tell mine to study hard and continue their education, in order to be able to have a job that can't be outsourced. But if they do work for a company like Wal-Mart, they'll have to work hard, so that they can advance. There are opportunities for those that work hard in all those companies, whether it is Wal-Mart, or an LCC. The opportunity for high wages in todays economy for those who just want to punch a clock, not so good.

Did you know which country recieves the highest number of the jobs outsourced her in the USA? It's not India, China, or even Mexico. Most jobs outsourced in the USA are filled in the USA.

User currently offlineJalalabad From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 2651 times:

F9 is hiring CSA's at $8.53/hr. on the NW job phone hotline there was an opening for a parttime temporary "cross-utilization" CSA, $12.01/hr. and cross-utilization means you have to clean dc9 lavs during turns, and of course NW wants lots of customer service and airline experience. i agree: how are passengers going to get service from these hires?

User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 3773 posts, RR: 22
Reply 14, posted (5 years 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 2616 times:

It is not about greedy unions, because they were just keeping the airlines honest when they were making billions and trying to not share with the employees.

You are wrong there. The airline industry has lost billions more than the cost of capital invested. As Warren Buffet stated after losing hundreds of millions of dollars in US Airways, "In hindsight, I wish the Wright Brothers had crashed at Kitty Hawk." Not all but many unions actively contributed to the current state of the legacy carriers with their uneconomic "industry leading wage" demands.

Did you know which country recieves the highest number of the jobs outsourced her in the USA? It's not India, China, or even Mexico. Most jobs outsourced in the USA are filled in the USA.

Interesting fact. I did know that a ton of jobs were relocating to the south... just look at where most of the new auto plants are now located - not just the "Big Three" but foreign makes as well!

There are too many people chasing too few jobs in this business.

This fact applies right across the nation in just about every industry. One example is aerospace engineers, and another is software programmers. For some of the reasons given by Lufthansa, airlines seem to get a disproportionate share of job seekers - just look at WN and B6. They get thousands of applicants for each position.

User currently offlineTOLtommy From United States, joined Dec 2003, 2583 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (5 years 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 2565 times:

"just look at where most of the new auto plants are now located - not just the "Big Three" but foreign makes as well!"

Very true, PlaneMaker. States with business friendly tax policies! Ohio had gotten the first "foreign" automaker plant, back when they built the Marysville assembly plant back in 1982. But more recently, Honda has built in Alabama. I'm sure the fact that Ohio has risen to number 3 in the country in state taxes had something to do with it. Those Honda, Toyota, Mercedes, and Nissan plants have had strong organizing action by the UAW, but no luck. Why, because the employers treat them well, and pay them well too. Their cars sell without huge incentives because customers like me know they last and hold value. I've driven nothing but Ohio built Hondas since 1993. But the labor laws in those states allow them to replace poor workers more easily, which keeps productivity high.


User currently offlineAa757first From United States, joined Aug 2003, 3038 posts, RR: 11
Reply 16, posted (5 years 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 2564 times:

i agree: how are passengers going to get service from these hires?

They don't care. Yes, if the CSR snaps at them, they will get mad for that day. But, next week if the airline runs a $126 R/T to Flordia, they'll be buying thier tickets mighty fast.

AirTran is hiring CSRs in various cities for $8.75, with a max of $16.75. Look at the job requirments. You have to have a clean background, be 18, have a high school diploma, be able to type 25 WPM and lift 70 pounds. I looked on Monster for a job with similar requirments. A hopsital patient care agent makes $7.00 an hour.

AAndrew

User currently offlineRparker537 From United States, joined Sep 2004, 41 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (5 years 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 2553 times:

To the comment about shi$%y service, I respond - check out JetBlue. They provide great service and have low wages. They do this by specifically marketing their jobs (at lease in the eyes of investors/financers) as short-term, non-career stints. They are NOT looking for career employees. This is a brilliant strategy - make JBLU a stepping stone before returning to school or finding permanent work.

User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 3773 posts, RR: 22
Reply 18, posted (5 years 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 2496 times:

And speaking of "outsourcing," look at how many "customer contact" airline employees have been replaced by technology... now customers can look up flights, buy tickets, print boarding passes, check-in via the web, and even board a flight (LH at FRA for example) with absolutely no contact with any airline staff. And at airports self-serve kiosks/terminals are sprouting everywhere!

As has been noted earlier in different posts, this is not unique to aviation. We are still going through the "IT Revolution" which is having a similar effect as the "Industrial Revolution" had in the 19th century - huge leaps in productivity and lower costs but at the cost of thousands of displaced workers.

2 man crews have been the norm for quite a while now but don't forget that Boeing and Airbus eliminated 1/3 of all cockpit jobs in a very short time frame - talk about a dramatic productivity increase through technology!

User currently offlineJhooper From United States, joined Dec 2001, 6116 posts, RR: 18
Reply 19, posted (5 years 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 2453 times:

Yep, Planemaker, you're right on....Think about all the industrial revolution workers who lost their jobs. I don't think anyone would argue that we go back to that level of productivity so these folks could have their jobs back. Progress is very good for the economy in the long run. You've gotta feel bad for the individuals involved, but hopefully they use it as an opportunity to acquire the new skills that are currently in demand and find better work. Gotta think "big picture" here..

It'd be great if anyone cared about the "20+ years of loyal service" these employees have put in, but the execs, shareholders, and the traveling public really don't. Not to be mean, but this is the truth. The only reason the execs act like they care about loyalty to employees is so they'll work harder and be more productive, increasing the bottom line profits. This is business, and that's all they care about. Employees are the instruments/tools to accomplish this end. My dad's about to lose his airline job due to this mess; nobody cares he's been there for 26 years.

As for the "cheap ass fares", this is what the market demands. Offer them, or the seats go empty = zero revenue. what do you think is better?


Last year 1,944 New Yorkers saw something and said something.
User currently offlineFATFlyer From United States, joined May 2001, 4961 posts, RR: 38
Reply 20, posted (5 years 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 2413 times:

With all due respect for what airline industry workers are going through and with my sympathy for the pain that is being felt. But, consider:

How many people complained when ATMs replaced bank tellers and the remaining tellers then were made part time at wages only slightly above minimum wage?

How many people chose to pay for full-service gas to keep service station attendants who knew about cars employed when self-serve pricing came around? Now it's becoming an even easier job with "pay at the pump" usage going up.

As a society we have seen this go on in many industries. Few people saw change in other industries as a problem unless it hurt them personally in some way. Instead most people vote their pocketbook in all industries for efficiency, speed, and cost.




"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
User currently onlineKL911 From Czech Republic, joined Jul 2003, 3285 posts, RR: 19
Reply 21, posted (5 years 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 2361 times:

Cheap ASS Airfares Are NOT Good For The Economy!


But very good for all us passengers here....  Laugh out loud

KL911


Just love RYANAIR!
User currently offlineAntares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 1402 posts, RR: 41
Reply 22, posted (5 years 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 2261 times:

Reality check. JetBlue, Ryanair and Virgin Blue are all making rich profit margins and could stick it to the big lazy dumb inefficient carriers much harder than they are and not go broke. Instead they have decided to make huge profit margins out of dirt cheap fares instead of thinner margins out of even cheaper fares.

I'm sure there are other examples out there with balance sheets I've never seen.

LCCs that are currently in danger of loosing it do include Southwest (shock horror) and Frontier (no surprise at all.) My view on Southwest is not a popular one, and my reasoning is that they have failed to make anywhere near the margins of JetBlue, although Southwest is not teetering on the brink like say United or Delta.

Of the legacy carriers that are making enough money to survive in the medium term the only two I can think of are Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific. Qantas itself acknowledges that good though it may be compared to many similar carriers, it is still short of making the cost of capital.

The successful LCCs are damn good for the national economy, anywhere, because they get people out of their cars and into the skies. Mobility is powerfully linked with prosperity.

The pain for those working for legacy carriers is deep and it isn't going to end before they totally restructure themselves, or merge, or quit the market.

Let me put it this way. Do any of us care about, even think about, the wages, pension schemes or work practices of the guys who drive our trains and buses. Bet we don't. So why should we give a whatever about the same things for pilots and cabin attendants. They don't give a whatever for us, the customers, so its time for them to shut up and work harder or get another job.

User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 13403 posts, RR: 93
Reply 23, posted (5 years 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 2136 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Antares:

Um - reality check. Southwest just reported a profit of $119 million for the third quarter, despite - or because of - sky high fuel prices. This is more than they earned for the same period last year.

JetBlue, on the other hand, is estimated by analysts to earn less than half of their year ago quarterly figure.

cheers

mariner


it's about the journey - not the arrival
User currently offlineAntares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 1402 posts, RR: 41
Reply 24, posted (5 years 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 1766 times:

Mariner,

You're right. The last quarter for Southwest is reason for optimism there too.

I've now flown both Southwest (both recently and way back in the 'free bottle of Bourbon days, about 1988?) and JetBlue (very good, no sign of being cheap and nasty on either airline). JetBlue will need to prove its EMB 190 strategy is correct, and it also has to deal with an oversold share price, way out of line with what makes sense but I suspect it will continue to succeed.

My guess is that both carriers will be among the top 6 US carriers in the next few years, with the possible deletion of United and US Airways in that period.

Antares

User currently offlineWindowSeat From United States, joined Sep 2003, 1273 posts, RR: 65
Reply 25, posted (5 years 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 1675 times:



John,

Like others have said, you are angry and you need to vent. Agreed. But then doing this job was your choice. Let me say that again, your choice!

Any customer service industry professional has to consider themselves as performers. I used to tell my employees that it's a stage out there and they are going out there to perform and that they will be under the world's eyes. It helped them to stay smiling after 14 hrs and arrogant nasty customers. I also reminded them, that thats the nature of the job and if they didn't want to do it, then they should quit.

As pointed out correctly, demand dropped during the recession but the supply continued. Demand is slowly coming back, but the price point has dramatically dropped. What people were ready to pay before, they are not ready to pay now. Dropping rates to stir demand is not always a great strategy, and this will continue for a few years until the consumer confidence in the economy continues to suffer.

Bottomline is, if you don't like what you are doing, at the rate you are doing, then quit. I also believe that the airline industry could never keep it's costs under control and are partly to blame for their curent situation. You may be just a victim but take charge and, when you are done venting, do something about it.

cheers





I'm all in favour of keeping dangerous weapons out of the hands of fools. Let's start with keyboards.
26 Mariner: Antares: Now I'm confused. Your previous post seemed to be pessimistic about Southwest - but the just reported number is their 54th consecutive quarte
27 Rmenon: And last week, I overheard an AA FA talking to another in the galley - complaining about fares - and how these two pax on the plane were going SFO-JFK
28 TwinOtter: I disagree. The strength of Southwest is not Mr. Kelleher and friendly flight attendents, and the strength of Jetblue is not leather seats and blue ch
29 Rparker537: TwinOtter has made a great point - the LCCs that will be successful will be so because of a competitive advantage that cannot be competed away. JetBlu
30 Mariner: TwinOtter: And who is responsible for that rational cost structure? Mr. Kelleher defined the Southwest business model, just as Mr. Neeleman defined th
31 Rparker537: With regards to fuel hedges it's not that simple. At this point, hedging is something of a catch-22 for most airlines. In order to hedge, you have to
32 Antares: Mariner, Mustn't post while I'm jetlagged! In fact SW has been profitable if I recall correctly for every quarter for about the last 12 years. (No, I
33 Mariner: If oil stays at $50 bbl for the next two years, there's a lot of airlines that won't be around anymore. It is true that Southwest's present hedges wil
34 TwinOtter: Mariner: Agreed. Allow me to clarify: I was not diminishing Mr. Kelleher's business acumen, but meant that it is THAT that is responsible for WN's suc
35 Rparker537: Mariner - everything you said was completely true and I agree with you. I was just pointing out that hedging fuel is no secret and that every airline
36 Mariner: Rparker: The airline was UAL. I don't know how the hedge was organized, but I believe that the judge allowed the use of some funds and I assume those
37 Jetpixx: Cheap ASS airfares are good for MY economy - and in the end, that is all that matters. I am sorry you make less per hour than in 1988, but perhaps try
38 Jetdeltamsy: Something is broke in this industry. I worked for Eastern Air Lines until the shut down. Went to Pan Am a month later until the merger (shut-down) wit
39 AZjetgeek: To the starter of this thread, John, I have this to say: You have a job. Is it the job you don't like or the pay? Thousands of Americans have lost the
40 Post contains links Mariner: Antares: I'm nitpicking, but the release says 54th Q of consecutive profit: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041014/dath005_1.html As to the return on capi
41 Antares: Hi Mariner, Actually Branson did control Virgin Blue at the start, as he owned all but a small percentage held by the CEO Brett Godrey, his COO Rob Sh
42 Mariner: Antares: Knock me down with a feather! It's been some years since I lived in Australia and I thought that the 49% cap still applied to domestic carrie
43 AR385: The only thing I can think of to write here is "supply-demand" economics, plus a literal interpretation of Milton Friedman. John, please go and read "
44 TOLtommy: It would be nice if we got back on John's topic, and if John would answer some of the questions we've asked.... But I suspect John realizes he didn't
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