Danny From Poland, joined Apr 2002, 3484 posts, RR: 2 Reply 1, posted (8 years 8 months 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 6054 times:
Sad to say but we were right.
"It's clear to us that FLYi's business plan is not working," UBS analyst Robert Ashcroft wrote in a research note. "We believe the chance of (a) FLYi Ch. 11 is about 65 percent."
Should have stayed with United. Or allow Mesa takeover.
UnitedTristar From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1251 posts, RR: 4 Reply 3, posted (8 years 8 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5890 times:
Yea the timing was all off...not the best time to try and start a carrier...they are burning through their united money faster then they can withdraw it!
very sad for them indeed
-m
Welcome aboard United Airlines L1011 Friendship Service to Osaka!
Ny-jfk-lga From United States of America, joined Jan 2000, 374 posts, RR: 2 Reply 4, posted (8 years 8 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5677 times:
Sure, listen to what one news article says. Articles also said we couldn't handle 300 daily departures from Dulles with 87 CRJ's. Aren't we doing it? "we were right"? Who's 'we'? I hope its not everyone on the board that's predicting our demise. I'll believe it when I see it in my company email. For now, We're just trying our best to stay in the game, people seem to think we're doing a great job. If its one thing I think we've got, is smart management, I'm certain they'll begin to work on solutions for these problems sooner than later, unless they have been already. By the way, when would be the best time to start a new carrier? Is there anyone on here at all that supports us rather than saying how sad it is for us? Remember, its sad for all the other airlines too, not just us.
Boeing757/767 From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 2264 posts, RR: 2 Reply 6, posted (8 years 8 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 5408 times:
According to the traffic results released today by Indy Air, Sept. had a load factor of 44.4 percent.
Ny-jfk-lga From United States of America, joined Jan 2000, 374 posts, RR: 2 Reply 7, posted (8 years 8 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 5227 times:
The flights I've been on have had at least 30 to full capacity pax, and that is excluding flight crew. I must say this month seems to be somewhat better than Sep.
FriendlySkies From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 4015 posts, RR: 5 Reply 8, posted (8 years 8 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 5120 times:
I'll be the first to admit I don't like FLYi and nothing will make me (it's like Cubs vs Cards, I'm a Cubs fan and a United fan, so it isn't ethically right for me to like the Cards for FLYi). But Ny-jfk-lga has a point. These so-called "analysts" have made some bad calls lately, and I'm sick of listening to their BS. Didn't they say UA would be dead 1.5 years ago? And US wouldn't make it out of the first bankruptcy? Oh, and DL should be in Chapter 11, right? These guys are great for a laugh, but pathetic when it comes to actually predicting something correctly...
Falcon Flyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 1294 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (8 years 8 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 4969 times:
Is the fat lady clearing her throat ??
My definition of cool ? Not trying so hard to be cool.
Ny-jfk-lga From United States of America, joined Jan 2000, 374 posts, RR: 2 Reply 10, posted (8 years 8 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 4941 times:
Let me tell you, the fat lady has such a bad cold, LOL. But we'll see how well she gets, hopefully she doesn't.
UA772IAD From Australia, joined Jul 2004, 1639 posts, RR: 3 Reply 11, posted (8 years 8 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 4887 times:
Not to mention the fact that UA would reduce its IAD operations--- never in a million years: UA has always been a heavy presence at Dulles and it always will be, it is their KEY US-Europe hub and is a strong hub in the network for domestic and international operations. P.S. I don't see how DL's or US's bankruptcy would help Indy since UA's operations take up most of the domestic operations at IAD.
JoFMO From Germany, joined Jul 2004, 2211 posts, RR: 0 Reply 12, posted (8 years 8 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 4815 times:
As I see it flyI would't suffer from an bankruptcy of DL nor did they from US's. Only if one of it's rivals UA,US or DL would fold it could help flyI. But I don't see anyone of them going chapter7 early enough for flyI.
Midway2airtran From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 864 posts, RR: 2 Reply 13, posted (8 years 8 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 4798 times:
I believe Indy Air has come up with a great product. I would not rule them out yet, first they are just starting to implement this, which was well known that it would be a major undertaking. Second, leadership at Indy made it obvious that the first year would be a transition year where they naturally would be losing money to get things going. Fuel prices have brought another challenge, but all airlines face that same fate. The key word is "Transition"! Third, their network which only covers a small area will be growing in the future as the A320's get introduced to the fleet; the load factors will obviously rise as they add Florida, trans-cons and other more tourist heavy markets. Finally there is the fate of US Airways which is very uncertain and might bring more opportunities for Indy in the near future. I try to look outside the perspectives of scared stockholders and analyists. Heck, that tumble may make it a great buy now. The sky ain't falling yet!
US Air/TWA Fan From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 125 posts, RR: 0 Reply 14, posted (8 years 8 months 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 4464 times:
Why is Indy Air flying so many frequencies?
Why not reduce frequencies on routes and shift capacity to new cities?
This would help that 44% LF.
MaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 15813 posts, RR: 50 Reply 15, posted (8 years 8 months 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 4453 times:
Why was the September LF almost identical to August's LF? Usually there's a big drop from August to September. Perhaps IndyAir is having a relatively good September or had an awful August?
Flyibaby From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 1015 posts, RR: 6 Reply 16, posted (8 years 8 months 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 4429 times:
US Air/TWA, Indy is shifting frequencies into other markets. Fact is that they can only open but so many new cities at a time.
Maverick, loads are up in fact. With the opening of key cities as CLT and MCO, loads are on the up and up.
Friendlyskies, thanks for your words. Most of us at I-Air carry no hard feelings towards UA. In fact, we appreciate the chance that UA gave most of us with our jobs in the first place. Honestly, I think a codeshare with UA would benefit both UA and I-Air since we still operate most of the east coast cities.
For all of you who think we should have gone the MESA route, keep in mind they are in trouble with UA over on-time and reliabilty performance. So that is just ignorant to bring that up.
I think these guys have gone at it all wrong. Their gameplan is great, as is their service. I just think they overdid it.
First of all, its ok to have 35 cities to announce, but not all in about 4 months. That even made the transformation more hectic as other airlines had to fill the void so quickly. Shittle america, skywest, Asa, comair.. These carriers had to go into overdrive to pick up the slack.
I think they should be getting around to the 3rd round of cities right about now. they should have established the first round of cities first. And maybe 14 flights per day is a little too much..? And the cities they did use 14 per day on, was already heavily saturated by the carriers with hubs at either airport.
I think they deployed too much of the fleet at once, they in a way had no choice because of all that they owned. Im sure they didnt want 50 crj's sitting around waiting their turn. They should have slowly expanded and taken the aircraft off of the routes they currently served for Aca, only as they needed more. This would have also provided them with a little supporting revenue while they got on their feet. i know they started with more than any other airline, but they need to start making money soon because that cant last forever.
I think some of the city selection was a little bit strange too. Dont they fly to 4 New York area airports? JFK/EWR/HPN/ISP? Possibly 2 but 4? Thats one example of overdoing it.
And routes to smaller places were overdone also. I believe in frequency and convience as much as the next guy, and i normally defend my home airport like a tiger, but 6x flights on just one airline is more than weve ever had anywhere. They might have picked thee wrong hub also.. I know they already had one there, but IAD is a competitive market. CRW already had 7x daily to IAD between US and UA.
Theyre jumping into what is already a well served, and competetive market. They also did this with many other markets.
I think a Hub at another airport would have succeeded better. Then again, i cant think of a better place to have one, so maybe it was the best they could do...
Does anyone want to put in their 2 cents? thats mine.
So lets continue with the one and only Independence Air Bankruptcy Thread.
Sorry to the people who work at flyi it isn't looking good.
Voodoo From Niue, joined Mar 2001, 1964 posts, RR: 0 Reply 18, posted (8 years 8 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 4227 times:
10 years ago the analyst in question was just another armchair CEO on the boards moderating misc.air-transport.industry or somesuch on USENET. Since then a finance degree and a UBS job have put him in a position of `power' with investors. But, as one example, saying that the 328Js were parked up, shows he didn't research the facts fully: there are still 328Js flying for Delta Connection. And time is running out for Delta to assume Chap.11....IIRC in November Delta has to assume the leases if they are not Ch.11. ANd they can't/won't go Chap.11 'just' to avoid those relatively puny (for Delta) leases. And thats just one example in his case. Its interesting to speculate who buys stock that is driven down by these analysts remarks......
Jacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 61 Reply 19, posted (8 years 8 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3578 times:
I find these "anal"ysts to be disturbing myself........but Mr. Market doesn't seem to like it either, and FLYI is down about 40% today.......cheap, but how cheap is cheap? Usually when a stock breaks below the buck level, its chances of climbing back up (no pun intended) is small......The Market does see FLYI as potentially going bankrupt.
There is TOO much overcapacity in the system...its as simple as that.......I feel for the employees, but unfortunately, thats how the world works.
Nearord From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 185 posts, RR: 1 Reply 20, posted (8 years 8 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3504 times:
Ashcroft is the same analyst who predicted a 90% chance that the mesa takeover would happen. So by his estimate of 65%, we should definitly be profitable by jan. I find this to be funny. There is nothing different about today than yesterday or the day before. we shall see the numbers when they come out on the 27th. Then we can start the sky is falling threads.
Rjnut From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 1168 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (8 years 8 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3483 times:
Once again, Ifly has a huge connecting complex at Dulles creating hundreds of city pair opportunites from many small to mid size markets, and they all but invisible to the corporate travel segment unless somehow they stumble upon Ifly website or a travel agent takes the intiative to go there as well.
Yes there is over capacity, but load factors everywhere else are at least 60's if not 70s and 80s...I wonder what load factor is on parallel services thru Dulles on UAX.
They are basically invisble and will remain so until GDS participation is used..This is not Jet blue, serving highly populated markets , in very popular routes! where a website alone will suffice!
They also were flying previously for a big carrier and decided to go independent. They stick around for a few motnhs with load factor similar to Flyi and then they dissapeared.
Bicoastal From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 23, posted (8 years 8 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3331 times:
Load factors on the UAX (United Express) flights I've been on and observed at Dulles are excellent. It helps to have United's/Star Alliance's national and international network to feed and feed from. Independence can't offer any of this.
Mikey711MN From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1380 posts, RR: 8 Reply 24, posted (8 years 8 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3208 times:
Regarding the 328s, wouldn't the pending deal with Skyway Airlines help the situation? That is, as I understand the situation and subsequent postings about it, iAir would be affected by a DL Chapter 11 filing because DL would likely walk away from the 328s and leave them to iAir/ACA to handle, which they obviously have no interest or finances to do. So is this evidence that Skyway is merely sitting and waiting for Chapter 11 to occur, thus plummeting the 328s to rock bottom value only to sweep them up then?
-Mike
I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
25 Jacobin777: Here is the load factor number from the article: "The airline reported late Tuesday that September traffic rose 9.7 percent over August as the number
26 WesternA318: Look guys, I was one of the original consultants on the deal. What we came up with is NOTHING to what the management is doing. We told them they could
27 Voodoo: There was one airline that tried to fly CRJs and offer good service at low cost. It was DUO Airways DUO was never low cost nor pretended to be. They h
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