Since other forms have speculated on how UAL survive, I'd like to start a discusson on how UAL won't survive. How much longer can they sustain these types of losses? How long can they stay in CH.11 before being forced to liquidate? What more can they do wrong?
Dayflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (9 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7471 times:
United must cut massive amounts of fat (executive positions at VP & above) in order to truly reduce costs; since they are unwilling to do that, they will be unemployed by the end of 2005. I don't think they will last beyond that.
LegendDC9 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (9 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 7418 times:
UAL is going to be around for a while. Unlike US and more along the lines of AA and DL, they own endless expensive real-estate all over the world, not to mention aircraft. They have plenty of coladoral they can use to keep their business running. True, they will have to go through some tough cuts which they have been going thru but the road from that to collapse is very long.
Isitsafenow From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4984 posts, RR: 24
Reply 5, posted (9 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 7211 times:
HP didnt keep losing the mega-bucks UA still is. $114 million bucks over 30 days is a ton of cash. Sooner or later the well will be dry. Payroll can not be met and its time to close up shop. UAL is in worse shape then most of you think.
The person that said end of 2005 is close. I think no later then Feb 1, 2006 unless UAL finds a sugar daddy someplace. Cutting the "massive fat" in the ivory tower is only a piece of the pie. You can fire 75 per cent of that "massive fat" and you still have a real big problem on your hands. It will not go away with that move.
If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
Sccutler From United States of America, joined Jan 2000, 5487 posts, RR: 28
Reply 6, posted (9 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 7145 times:
Interesting game to watch, though the impact on the employees of this carrier of long tenure cannot be ignored.
I think UAL survives, but expect a lot of agonizing issues before the dust settles. I also believe that, if they ultimately fail, it will be Continental which will emerge as the big "winner," and I expect CO to reclaim Denver.
Just a feeling. Flame on.
...three miles from BRONS, clear for the ILS one five approach...
BoeingBus From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1596 posts, RR: 18
Reply 7, posted (9 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 7135 times:
My personal view is that there is going to be foreign carrier who will save UA, my guess it will be Lufthansa... Supposedly, the Bush administration is looking to raise foreign ownership stakes, so why not???
If this does NOT happen UA will fail... But not until after Feb as I just purchased tix to MDV... lol...
SHUPirate1 From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 3670 posts, RR: 17
Reply 9, posted (9 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 7102 times:
Has anybody looked at the last paragraph of the press release? Pretty disturbing, if you ask me.
"The carrier said that as expected it did not meet the requirements of its debtor-in-possession financing for the month but that it received a waiver from its DIP lenders for the fourth quarter of 2004."
While I believe that United has too much going for it (namely, hubs, gates, slots, and route authorities in some of the most valuable airline real estate in the world) to not survive in some way, shape, or form, however, it seems somewhat likely that at least some of the airline will have to be gutted for United to emerge.
Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
UALGSO From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (9 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 7076 times:
Maybe tonight, or tomorrow or the next day, maybe even next week who knows, nobody but judge gene and the boys at WHQ. Most of the employees here would just like to see an exit strategy from CH. 11! But until the locks are put on the doors and computers there is no use in bringing up when will we fail every other week until it occurs.
Isitsafenow From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4984 posts, RR: 24
Reply 12, posted (9 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 7044 times:
BIGBLACK....Well, the bashing may be getting old, but fact is the fuse is getting shorter...the clock is winding down, and we are rounding third and heading for home.
Chapter 11 was the two minute warning and I'm not sure how many time-outs are left...........but its not many.
And that folks, is reality.
If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
UA744KSFO From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (9 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 6899 times:
I do like United a lot, but it does seem strange that after all the trimming that they've done, after all the concessions, renegotiating, and the like, they are still posting these big losses and haven't put forward some sort of plan for how to emerge from bankruptcy. They kept 14 jets from being repossessed by court order, and this scares me a bit.
While I definitely want to see UA around, I'm a bit worried that the current management is stalling for time, and that the employees are getting screwed while management can't put forth a good plan for reorganization. And there's no way anyone can call me a UA basher. In fact, I REALLY want them to stick around.
B4real From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 2629 posts, RR: 5
Reply 17, posted (9 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 6869 times:
I think we need to see what happens to US. Back in BK, and no emergence in sight from what we see. If US dissolves, and I think US would go before UA, so when/if we see this, we can see how the industry adjusts without one legacy carrier (something I think we need post 9/11), and then place bets on UA survival or sinkage.
Thrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2688 posts, RR: 10
Reply 19, posted (9 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 6795 times:
I really don't believe when UAL will fail is a question we can answer at this point. Seeing as how TWA bounced back from almost certain death six times, I would say we can never say when UAL will go down. That said, let's not debate when UAL will go down, but rather if UAL will go down. If TWA survived Carl Icahn, then UA certainly is capable of making a full recovery.
BIGBlack From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 600 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (9 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 6752 times:
Wouldn't a major airline like UA going under be bad for the industry as a whole? The the airlines are in competition but I would suspect they all want the industry to prosper once again. Someone please explain.
Greaser From Bahamas, joined Jan 2004, 1101 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (9 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 6709 times:
This isn't a question on whether United will go, rather which Legacy will go. Unfortunately, its is going to be very hard for any Legacy to get back into healthy shape unless a Legacy fails. Yes, they all need restructering, yes, the airlines need to consolidate their aircraft types.
The extra-ordinary time calls for risky measures and lots of creativity.
But should any leagacy fail of which US is the closest to, UA, AA, DL,certainly CO & NW could survive.There are only 3 airlines teertering on the edge, US,UA and DL, of the 3 US is in the worst position, followed by UA and DL.
Usatoeze From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 358 posts, RR: 3
Reply 22, posted (9 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 6674 times:
If I am not mistaken the great Swissair once owned a great deal of side business as well as PA and they both went under. I am saddened to think that it is possible, but it definitely is. Collateral isnt always a tradeoff as sometimes creditors and outside buyers realize that they can pick up those same assets after a Chapter 7 filing for pennies on the dollar rather than pay a higher price for them now.
Ordpark From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 573 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (9 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 6549 times:
I hope all of you 'experts' that want to kill off my airline will give me a few moments...
I've worked for UA for over 30years....I've weathered strikes...economic downturns that saw many of my co-workers lose there jobs....and Sep. 11th...when two of our aircraft and crews were destroyed by lunatics...
DFWrevolution...what gives you the right to even author such a post?
I work with some of the most dedicated, hard working people in the industry...we've raised our families together...and over the years worked our buts off for UA and many of you can't wait to see us fail - quite frankly, you disgust me.....
You may get your wish - but I don't think so...UA may end up a very different looking airline, but we WILL survive...I've seen a lot of people I've worked with for years lose there jobs - and there will be more unfortunatly..none of us knows what the future holds.
So, the next time you want to see my airline fold...just remember that there are thousands of jobs and lives hanging in the balance....and incidently, I don't know who you folks work for, but I hope your companies thrive!
Aa777jr From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (9 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 6504 times:
I give UA till Dec 05 before they go under. They need serious redevelopement of business plan and need to get an exit stradegy for Chp 11. How long will creditors allow them to hemorage funds on a monthly basis?
On a side note, what percentage of UA a/c are actually paid in full?
: This subject is silly. Please go read my other posts on the subject of UAL to get my position in this matter. Suffice to say that I have very strong f
: Hi Guys, I read these forums a couple of times a week and finally decided to join and get in on the action. Anyway, I fly on UA all the time (1K). I d
: Wouldn't a major airline like UA going under be bad for the industry as a whole? The market is saturated with overcapacity. Someone needs to go if the
: Here is the bottom line-UAL corp's stock is worth nothing-the holders of bonds and the smaller amount of trade debt still owed from prior to the filin
: Barring labor disruption and geopolitical catastrophe, UA will almost certainly survive. Its route structure and fleet are outstanding and are inheren
: Nobody WANTS United or USAirways to fold. Nobody WANTS people to be tossed into the unemployment line. Nobody is casting any stones. What I am doing(c
: What drama...stop yourselves; don't pretend to know what's going inside the airline regarding their cash position or plans for the future. The bottom
: Based on the posts many of the a.netters have been putting on the board, I think some do want US and UA to fail......Most on the forum seem to look at
: With the BK judge in bed with UA means UA will be around... UA will be a much smaller airline if they are going to survive. They will also need to rea
: For those of you that say UAL does not have a business plan, I beg to differ. Many changes have been made while in Chapter 11. *Diverse portfolio of p
: as for united's "vast real estate holdings", ual has hired a consultant to identify and liquidate real estate holdings. it's in their november report
: 727, Hence why UA will continue to not make it as it is..It is time to stop spending money!
: If Indy gets the routes they are going to offer a better product than ACA?? They are the same carrier...they were not the best UAX carrier and the ser
: To all my fellow UAL employees, I read an interesting article last night regarding the endless stream of poop that seems to keep raining down upon us.
: "They will also need to really START looking for ways to save money..." NWAFA - As was said above, there are numerous things being done that you don't
: Mm320Cap. Bravo. Your post is exactly what needs to be said to your fellow employees. There are quite a lot of people who want to see UA fail. It is i
: Baw716, Thanks for the thoughtful post. Your observations about United's management team are spot on, in my opinion. As an ex-analyst, you must muse a
: Many people are waiting for UA to fail because that will presumably restore the rest of the industry to health. However, it seems likely that UA can s
: Well said Mm320cap, Its nice to hear that even the pilots appreciate even the ground handlers work, as do we appreciate your work as well. We will get
: Contrail, I am far from bitter, old, well I have been around a bit. Bitter-nope sorry, thats why I received over 233 positive letters from passengers
: As someone who has worked for a company that liquidated the last thing I want to see is UA employees facing the same situation I went through. I perso
: I personnally believe UA will survive in one form or another, they are currently suffering economic factors beyond their control right now. First, oil
: I think it is a fair topic to discuss to be honest. I love United Airlines - they flew me regularly from London to St Louis when I first met who is no
: UALramperORD, I'll listen for you on the other side of the radio during pushback! You guys have always had my respect, but after days like the Wednesd
: US Airways' problem was not that they exited their first bankruptcy too soon -- it was that they exited bankruptcy with a half-a$$ed business plan. Th
: AADC10-Hate to break it for you, but LAX has 243 UA departures scheduled for today, Wednesday, December 1, 2004, compared to just 231 for SFO...other
: LegendDC9 I agree 100%..Passengers in other countries know more about UA than pax in the U.S... The real estate is large reason why they are still ar
: hope all of you 'experts' that want to kill off my airline will give me a few moments... I've worked for UA for over 30years....I've weathered strike
: I would have to agree that UA going down would be a big disaster. They have the most global network right now of any U.S. airline, have the most hubs
: >>They have the most global network right now of any U.S. airline
: Size has nothing to do with making or not. Look at Pan Am, NO ONE would ever have thought an airline of our size (back then) would not be around. East
: This is crazy, so crazy I wont even get into it but to say that AA or DL will be gone far before UA. If UA wanted to they could sell some things and h
: NWAFA I read your last post with great interest. I do, however, question your prediction that other airlines will pick up the slack. First, AA will no
: UAL747DEN, I respect your opinion but you must be crazy considering AA and DL aren't even in bankruptcy. AA isn't anywhere near it, same can't be said
: "If UA wanted to they could sell some things and have more cash setting in the bank than anyother airline and still be among the top 5 in the world. "
: Moman, I understand your point; however, there is a certain domino effect that will ripple across the country with a company the size of United going
: Baw716: Good points, but from what I understand there are about 60,000 employees at United today. I came up with the 200,000 number (which I think it
: Here here MMcap. Coming from a regular PAX, it's people like you that make me proud to say I fly United.
: I don't think they operate in an extremely inefficient manner, I think they simply still suffer heavy overcapacities resulting in a large payroll and
: "LH or SQ may be interested in getting shareholders of UA, or they simply may be obliged if they want to save Star Alliance." 1. What makes you think
: As usual Contrail you are not able to stick with the facts here. You make untrue statements over and over, and when facts are presented to you and you
: 1. What makes you think that SQ is at all interested in rescuing United? The two airlines don't even codeshare, much less have any economic ties that
: "Oops, I didn't know that. How is it possible, they are Star Alliance partners? Anyway, forgive me, since I'm european I don't fly transpacific so oft
: Avek00 I know this is off topic, but in your last post you state that "CO adds little to SkyTeam that the other members do not contribute." Could you