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Could UA Survive Only Internationally?  
User currently offlineAa777jr From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 4359 times:

I did a search and I know the UA topic has been slightly beat to death in past months, but if they severally scaled back domestic operations and focused on Atlantic and Pacific rim routes, could they survive or eventually recover fully their financial problems?

I could really care less about their bankruptcy, look at Amtrak, they've been bleeding for years and are still around with government funds.  Smile

AA777jr

72 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3204 posts, RR: 10
Reply 1, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 4313 times:

probably not

The strength of their loyalty program comes from domestic business...and it is that loyalty program which drives it's most important and profitable international business.


User currently offlineAa777jr From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 4301 times:

I was just thinking, worse case scenario...hope it doesn't come to that. I guess it isn't plausible then?  Confused


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16822 posts, RR: 51
Reply 3, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 4294 times:

United's core is the Mid-West Business Traveler, Chicago to NY to LA kind of folks.

International flying is relatively new to the airline, 20 years.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineAa777jr From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 4287 times:

From everything I read regarding UA interntional structure they seem to be doing well. There are so many LCC competing for that Mid-West business traveller group now.

User currently offlineN1120a From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26376 posts, RR: 76
Reply 5, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 4275 times:

Well, let's see. Can a carrier survive as all, or almost all international without some sort of subsidy? Ask the real Pan Am.


Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineAa777jr From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 4258 times:

N1120a,


I was gonna try and compare that "what if" with what happened to Pan Am.  Sad

Obviously, it would be necessary for UA to continue service out of ORD, DEN, SFO, etc, but if they scaled, way back and maybe even started more international routes...

AA777jr



User currently offlineN1120a From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26376 posts, RR: 76
Reply 7, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4239 times:

>I was gonna try and compare that "what if" with what happened to Pan Am.

Obviously, it would be necessary for UA to continue service out of ORD, DEN, SFO, etc, but if they scaled, way back and maybe even started more international routes...<

That is what they are doing, but UA has a great deal of FF members who like to fly from places other than hubs and to places other than hubs, so you will never see UA as an only international carrier. TED may take over more domestic flying, but that would be it



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineMoman From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 1054 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4222 times:

I think they could, as long as they had some strong domestic feeder routes from DEN, ORD, IAD, SFO places like that. Let Southwest fly the cheap asses from DEN to MCO to see Mickey mouse while UA flies the CEO to LHR for a meeting!

I hate to see UA throwing good money after bad, and that is all they do competing with WN and the like.....

Moman



AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
User currently offlineAa777jr From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4192 times:

Let Southwest fly the cheap asses from DEN to MCO to see Mickey mouse while UA flies the CEO to LHR for a meeting!

This was exactly what I had in mind. I think UA could do quite well operating the majority of their routes internationally.

AA777jr


User currently offlineANCFlyer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4180 times:

I don't see how . . . who is going to feed those international routes? US Airways? Not likely, they'll probably be gone - I hope not, but likely.

Their customer loyalty base in domestic from ORD, DEN, SFO, IAD and SEA. I can't see them suddenly turning into an "internationally focused" carrier.

I don't think UA could ever be a niche carrier - that niche being International Routes. Of course, a lot folks in a.net contend that if UA survives it will be a substantially different carrier - this might be the "substantially different" everyone has thought about . . .

Interesting thread.


User currently offlineN1120a From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26376 posts, RR: 76
Reply 11, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4163 times:

>I think they could, as long as they had some strong domestic feeder routes from DEN, ORD, IAD, SFO places like that. Let Southwest fly the cheap asses from DEN to MCO to see Mickey mouse while UA flies the CEO to LHR for a meeting!<

I know a great deal of business flyers who fly WN, not because of prices, but because of quality of service and their simple, yet effective FF plan. Oh, and those cheap asses who fly WN make WN profitable, while ignoring them for the all mighty yield is what kills UA, DL, etc. Notice WN does not mention yield? That is because they worry more about treating people right?

>I hate to see UA throwing good money after bad, and that is all they do competing with WN and the like..... <

Funny, they could compete if they stopped wasting money on golden parachutes for people like Steven Wolf (he was there before US) and stopped pissing off their employees.



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineAa777jr From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4157 times:

Their customer loyalty base in domestic from ORD, DEN, SFO, IAD and SEA. I can't see them suddenly turning into an "internationally focused" carrier.

It wouldn't happen overnight, but if they focused more on international growth and alot less on domestic hauls, I think they could stop the bleeding.


User currently offlineMoman From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 1054 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4151 times:

N1120a,

Good points, but I still believe CASH is KING to the average American consumer. People might say they will pay $100 extra to fly a carrier where service is good, but when it comes down to it, they won't. That's precisely why AA is ditching MRTC. The people that pay $180 DEN-MCO on WN probably wouldn't pay $250 to fly UA anyway.

The same can't be said when the CEO is flying internationally on the company dime. "Yeah I'll take the $1500 first class seat and the extra bottle of wine".

Moman



AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
User currently offlineBaw716 From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 2027 posts, RR: 27
Reply 14, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4135 times:

OK, since I have been commenting on UA all day today, might as well take one more on.

I made a post some time ago about a strategic plan I would put in place were I CEO at United (basically, I was reacting to a great deal of bitching and not much positive energy in helping them fix the problem).

One of the points of that plan was a reduction of the aircraft types in the fleet. The second one was product, both domestic and international. I proposed that the airline be split into two divisions: UA International and UA Domestic. UA international would be the higher quality product, driven at the business traveler with improved comfort and service to attract the leisure customer flying Economy. The Domestic product would be a variation on TED, but adding a European Style Business Class, operated with Airbuses. The Domestic product would have food and inflight programming for purchase (or free based on competitive factors). The key to the domestic product is low fares, a la JetBlue.

In addition, to the UA Domestic product, the UA International product would operate some domestic routes connecting the hubs and driving connecting passengers through to the long haul international flights. Pricing for the international flights would be somewhat higher than the market; however, a certain number of Economy seats would be set aside for low fares for competitive reasons. These flights would be operated by the 777 and 767, with the PS 757 used on the key transcons plus some possible route expansion from the east coast. At a minimum, PS would certainly provide that "cut above" that the heavy duty frequent flyers want.

There are a number of other proposals, but this is principally the idea.
The key factor is creating an onboard product that Americans will fly without hesitation and a product that foreigners would be willing to try out.

Food for thought



David L. Lamb, fmr Area Mgr Alitalia SFO 1998-2002, fmr Regional Analyst SFO-UAL 1992-1998
User currently offlineN1120a From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26376 posts, RR: 76
Reply 15, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4117 times:

>Good points, but I still believe CASH is KING to the average American consumer. People might say they will pay $100 extra to fly a carrier where service is good, but when it comes down to it, they won't. That's precisely why AA is ditching MRTC. The people that pay $180 DEN-MCO on WN probably wouldn't pay $250 to fly UA anyway.<

You can't fly DEN-MCO on WN. You can't fly DEN-Anywhere on WN.
There are very few people who care so much about price that $180 vs. $250 would compromise loyalty. Members of Mileage Plus would fly UA every time. There are a lot of people, including me, who pay a bit extra to fly to smaller stations like OXR and get extra miles at the same time, so UA becomes the main choice. Perhaps a few who really had to would pay that difference, but most people I know go based on service, not that kind of price difference. WN's service, is, in many ways better than UA (though I love talking to UA F/As about anything). Also, the difference is often $180 to $450, which does make a big difference.

>The same can't be said when the CEO is flying internationally on the company dime. "Yeah I'll take the $1500 first class seat and the extra bottle of wine".<

When was the last long haul transatlantic C class seat that cost $1500, let along F?



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineAvek00 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4336 posts, RR: 19
Reply 16, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4112 times:

Could UA Survive Only Internationally?

No major US airline could survive as an international-only operation for any length of time. Lack of feed issues aside, an international-only US carrier would find itself saddled with unbearably high costs.



Live life to the fullest.
User currently offlineMoman From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 1054 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4076 times:

N1120a,

Obviously I am not aware of prices. My point is that when it's my dime, I'm more price conscious than if it is the company's dime. I tried to get my company to pay $100 more to let me fly AA but they wouldn't go for it and I flew UA last time I took a biz trip. (UA is our official biz airline).

I agree that people like you and I will pay a little extra, and most people on here might since we are fans. I am AA Gold and I pay extra to fly them over WN. I am pretty sure you and I are in a minority among all travelers. No one else in my family would pay any premium to fly on any carrier. Actually, I don't know anyone else who would. My neighbor who works for AA buys tickets on B6 to fly home, they are so cheap and he says it's not worth the hassle to fly non-rev.

Moman



AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
User currently offlineScotron11 From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2004, 1178 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4069 times:

If TED were expanded to feed their hubs maybe it could work. Having a lower cost domestic operation feeding their international flights maybe the answer. By the by, how is TED doing? Thing is, BA started a LCC within their own airline but later sold it because BA did not think that was their area of expertise. Just curious if a combination on such a large scale would work for UA.

User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9508 posts, RR: 52
Reply 19, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 4035 times:

UA needs to focus on international and not domestic. They know they can't win on the domestic market. They expanded and became the number one airline in the 90s and tried to go after every single person in the US. They tried to have the best route structure so that they could be the biggest and best. Well that strategy doesn't work now. Only transporting the high fare passengers is a a good idea but probably won't work either. So many people here on this forum say that carriers like UA, DL, AA, US, CO and NW should go after the high fare passengers and offer a premium service. There is a market for this, but 6 carriers cannot fill it. There are only so many high fare passengers; the premium product would be saturated quickly if all of the legacy majors went for it.

If a carrier was to focus on premium travel only, they would not succeed by flying into every destination imaginable with tons of frequencies, because there just aren't enough high paying passengers to fill the planes. You need to supplement the system with a diverse set of passengers to succeed and be one of the biggest. Although UA might not be going for that, they are filling that role. Leisure travelers help fill the planes, so that UA can offer frequencies and service that the business passengers want. If the high fare passengers get what they want in the form of frequencies and good service domestically, then they will have loyalty internationally too. There are very few business travelers that fly internationally more often then domestically in the US. The two parts need to blend together.

UA is focused on providing what high fare passengers want. They have the benefit of probably the most diverse international structure of any US carrier. This is a strong plus for them. However they bleed money domestically. Using TED and by shrinking plane sizes, they are becoming more competitive on the domestic market. TED is offering leisure passengers options. These are necessary because believe it or not, business travelers take vacations too, and want that kind of service to be available too.

They can't just end all domestic flights, because they would lose the necessary loyalty, but they can't transform themselves into a premium carrier either. Offering high seat pitch and meals on every flight is not necessary. Few succeed when doing that. Midwest was as close to that as possible, but have added saver service to supplement the premium service. UA needs frequency and convenience for passengers. Economy plus helps with the comfort level by giving the higher yielding passengers what they want, but still catering to the leisure travelers with what they want (low prices) so they can fill up the planes.

UA needs blend itself into a strong airline. They don't have to dominate every market they are in. There is no reason for them to go after the Midwest-Florida market with tons of capacity, because LCCs have that covered. They just have to have enough service so that they do not upset their loyal flyers. Domination does not mean profitability, but a strong overall product that caters to the market you are going after is what allows for financial strength. By using smaller jets with high frequencies (E170, CRJs, 737s, A319s), giving high fare passengers the benefit of economy plus, having a strong international and domestic route structure, and using TED to keep costs manageable where the number of leisure travelers is higher then typical, UA will be able to reposition itself as a strong contender.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineMoman From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 1054 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 4017 times:

Okay I am curious now, can someone explain to me how Ted is low cost? Don't they use the same employees, planes, and crew from the mainline (I know they are painted Ted, but aren't the lease rates the same?) This is something I have never understood.

Thanks,
Moman



AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
User currently offlinePVG From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2004, 723 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 4002 times:

Why does UA need to have its own LCC? Why can't they just use the existing LCC's to supplement? I.E., why can't they make a deal with JETBLUE at JFK to feed their international flights and vice versa? I assume that it has to do with union resistance, but it makes sense. There is no point to continue adding capacity (even if you call it TED) when almost no one is making money outside of the few LCCs, and even they are starting to cry.

Maybe I just don't know enough about the economics of the airline industry, but when the market is already oversupplied and few are earning a decent return, seems to me that it's time for consolidation/cooperation/mergers. Why should the airline business be any different than any other business?


User currently offlineMoman From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 1054 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3999 times:

I brought up the same point as PVG in another post, why doesn't UA make a deal with another LCC (I said America West/Air Tran) to feed it's international flights.

Moman



AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25009 posts, RR: 85
Reply 23, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3978 times:
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Moman:

It would require a massive change in thinking. To use the simple example of Frontier at DEN:

If UAL had bought a (49%?) stake in Frontier in its early days, they would have achieved two things:

(i) they would have had fair amount of the DEN/LCC market covered, and:

(ii) they could have kept Frontier's "separate" identity, but they would have been able to exercise some direction over Frontier's growth.

But, in those days, LCC's were either upstarts or the enemy, or both. It was frequently stated (not officially) that UAL would "crush Frontier like a gnat."

But that didn't happen. And now it may be too late. But it would have solved (would solve?) a bunch of problems.

cheers

mariner






aeternum nauta
User currently offlineN1120a From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26376 posts, RR: 76
Reply 24, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3963 times:

>I brought up the same point as PVG in another post, why doesn't UA make a deal with another LCC (I said America West/Air Tran) to feed it's international flights.<

HP already has an agreement with VS, and they have started to move away from deals with other big carriers, like the demise of the CO deal. FL interlines, unlike WN, but they have not made deals with other carriers for codeshare, etc. and probably will not. B6 follows WN pretty much exactly, staying away from interline to save costs.

>Okay I am curious now, can someone explain to me how Ted is low cost? Don't they use the same employees, planes, and crew from the mainline (I know they are painted Ted, but aren't the lease rates the same?) This is something I have never understood.<

Well, UA pays their employees the same or less at this point than WN does, so that is not an excuse. Apparently, US and UA have a lower CASM than WN or B6 currently. UA needs to get away from other types of costs, such as management waste, bloated subcontractor charges, chosing engines based on actual cost rather that taking far less capable ones because of percieved loyalty, etc.



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
25 PVG : mariner, The current situation is vastly different than in the past. The time has come to start thinking differently and for the market to really be l
26 StevenUhl777 : Funny, they could compete if they stopped wasting money on golden parachutes for people like Steven Wolf Someone will have to correct me if I'm wrong,
27 Baw716 : Scotron, This is exactly the point I have been making. If TED (or UA Domestic as I prefer to call it) feeds the hubs from the domestic markets and UA
28 Mariner : N1120a: You might want to check those US/UA CASM figures again. They are very far from correct. PVG: I agree. But you and Moman asked why, and I tried
29 Aa777jr : Why does UA not report (enough) on how TED is doing? They should sell TED and focus on UA totally. Let HP, B6 or FL take them over and have them compe
30 JoFMO : Its not that easy with an superior international product and a slightly higher price to still keep all your passengers on board. Here in Germany the m
31 Moman : Let me say thanks to everyone for the info. It's nice to have an educated disucssion without someone barging in and calling us all a**holes for trying
32 Post contains images Aa777jr : Moman, If it's possible, UA should dump TED and focus on their international expansion. It seems daily I receive United Milage Plus emails reminding m
33 BoeingFever777 : UA needs to focus on international and not domestic. agreed! Ok so what if UA was to put all the eggs in the Intl market basket. They have over 300+ s
34 JoFMO : No American carrier could survive without domestic feed; same here in Europe. But UA doesn't need to compete with the locos in every market. Keep the
35 An-225 : Moman, If it's possible, UA should dump TED and focus on their international expansion. It seems daily I receive United Milage Plus emails reminding m
36 Aa777jr : JoFMO, I stated that UA should definitely keep its market share in the following hub/focus cities: ORD, SFO, DEN, IAD and even LAX or JFK. I try and f
37 JpetekYXMD80 : I try and fly only AA when I go abroad, but it's amazing and discouraging (at the same time) to see how much farther UA is ahead of AA in the internat
39 N328KF : AA is ahead of UA in the international market? Try flying Pacific sometime. It totally depends on where you're going.
40 PVG : Mariner, yes, chap. 11 needs to go in order for the market to prosper. On the other hand, it's not the real reason that the airline business finds its
41 JoFMO : But without doubt everywhere south of the USA UA is very weak and they need to expand. They will never reach the coverage to there of AA in the forese
42 MasseyBrown : This thread sounds like US a couple years ago and TWA a couple years before that. The company is losing money on essentially every passenger they fly
43 Post contains images JpetekYXMD80 : Stop filling the blog with stupid callouts and find some other post to post your comments in! AA777jr, most likely knows that AA is #1 in those market
44 BoeingFever777 : I made a valid point. The only one posting something that's not related to the topic is you, BoeingFever777. Read again! Last time I looked I posted r
45 Aa777jr : N382KF, AA is ahead of UA in the international market? Try flying Pacific sometime. I said originally, I try and fly only AA when I go abroad, but it'
46 NWA330TONY : Sorry but im gonna answer a question with a question. we all know UA's bread winner is the international market, now if they continued to focus on tha
47 ANCFlyer : NWA330TONY: " . . . and took advantage of thier codeshare with US and had them increase flights to UA's hubs . . . " Interesting theory. . . but I don
48 ATWZW170 : If UA were to focus on long haul flights and international flights, wouldn't that help? Drop the ORD-GRR type flights. Put in nicer regional jets that
49 Avek00 : "Cut domestic interest drastically and took advantage of thier codeshare with US and had them increase flights to UA's hubs while cutting thier intern
50 GLA MD11 : No company working on the Hub model (one or a couple big airports, short haul flights flying in customers for longer routes) can work only on the Inte
51 Avek00 : "They need their local / domestic operations to fly people from other places (like me in IND)." ...Exactly.
52 ATWZW170 : Why isn't UA realizing that some point to point will bring in extra revenue? Look at NW, IND and MKE are becoming focus cities and I'm sure stealing a
53 NWAFA : ATW, Because they have NO plan. They are hitting here, hitting there hoping that anything will go.
54 Ord : "Look at NW, IND and MKE are becoming focus cities and I'm sure stealing away passengers from all the airlines but especially UA." The IND focus city
55 NWAFA : Actually ORD, it is to keep our Elite passengers in those cities, not to "steal"...in the process we are taking people away from ATA and UA in those c
56 Mm320cap : A month of so ago, United announced that it was shifting capacity to its international markets. Our domestic RASM's are going to be down 12% next year
57 Uadc8contrail : nwafa, is there that many nw elites that will keep that op going in ind???and now i see they are adding more flights outta ind...im not a betting man
58 NWAFA : UAD, IND has the 2nd highest Elite passengers after the hubs. DTW, MSP, MEM, then MKE and IND in order of passengers. IND is going to see even more in
59 Byrdluvs747 : HP already has an agreement with VS,... The agreement with VS does not prevent HP from partnering with anyone else. ...and they have started to move
60 Aa777jr : Mm320cap, Our domestic RASM's are going to be down 12% next year and our international RASM's will be up 14% next year with an overall capacity decrea
61 Avek00 : "As for UAL not having a plan... that is just plain silly. They have a plan." Incorrect - UAL CFO Jake Brace recently stated that United currently doe
62 Aa777jr : Avek00, UAL CFO Jake Brace recently stated that United currently does not have a business plan upon which the airline can obtain financing. Brilliant
63 Rwylie77 : I would turn Ted into the domestic product, run as a seperate business unit, and this would feed United International, making money on the internation
64 NWAFA : Rwylie, TED is still very expensive to operate. They use the same crews and ground that main line uses.
65 Aa777jr : NWAFA? Could UA sell TED? AA777jr
66 NWAFA : Aa777, I do not see how they could since its not a different company from United...
67 Post contains images StevenUhl777 : the UA topic has been slightly beat to death in past months Slightly?
68 Avek00 : "Currently, is UA working with mediators to develope a business plan so they can aquire the necessary funds to survive? Aren't they using borrowed mon
69 ATWZW170 : With the increase of Intl service, are we going to see new stations open? I know several stations have already opened, which is good, but maybe an exp
70 STT757 : "From everything I read regarding UA interntional structure they seem to be doing well. There are so many LCC competing for that Mid-West business tra
71 TonyBurr : They have to keep their domestic to feed their international. For those who use UA frequently for domestic and build up their status, that lose would
72 Bobnwa : "UA is ahead of AA in the international markets" Air Transport World Nov 2004 Jan- Jun, International operations (000) ---------Pax--------RPK's------
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