Vfw614 From Germany, joined Dec 2001, 3772 posts, RR: 5 Posted (9 years 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 2599 times:
I was wondering how the British LCC market will develop from 2005 onwards. In the past two or three years we have seen the emergence of a number of competitors for the - what I call - "heritage LCCs" Ryanair and easyJet, in particular bmibaby, Jet2, Thomsonfly and the relaunched flyBE (I will leave out Flyglobespan, Air Scotland and Mytravelite from that list as they are (have become) more like seat-only selling charter airlines route and frequency-wise). Those six LCCs have erased more and more white spots on the UK's LCC-map. Now, after Norwich and Aberdeen obviously becoming flyBE-bases and both easyJet and Jet" expanding at BFS, there is virtually no regional market left without a significant LCC presence (maybe with the exception of GLA and EDI).
So what is next ?
Will it be sufficient for the likes of Jet2, flyBE, bmibaby, Thomsonfly to expand the existing bases (most of which, imho, only have limited growth potential) ? Will they start to compete head on with others by setting up shop at established bases of other LCCs (as we have seen recently on a smaller scale with Jet2 moving to MAN and flyBE to BHX) and will they be in a position to do so with regard to their financial strength ?
Or will they follow easyJet and Ryanair's suit and establish bases abroad on the continent ? The only airline of those mentioned that has discussed a move to the continent in the past was flyBe, but nothing has happened so far.
Another option would be to merge those LCCs which are part of a larger grouping with their stablemates to create a multi-national LCC without having to start from scratch abroad. Candidates for such a move would be HLX/Thomsonfly and Germanwings/Polishwings/bmibaby.
Alternatively, I could imagine that a combined bmibaby/Jet2 operation would be a strong competitor for Easyjet, while flyBe might survive independently as they serve niche-markets with their smaller aircraft.
Christa From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 2, posted (9 years 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 2461 times:
I believe that BMIbaby will be looking to expand either
a) with another airline or carrier on a rather large basis, for example they already have a codeshare with Air Wales out of CWL on some routes. BMIbaby sell the flight and then BMIbaby advertise it on their website, it's still a BMIbaby flight and has a BMIbaby flight number, just without the BMIbaby aircraft.
b) Buy more aircraft - lower the fares and "try" to compete EVEN more with the likes of FR and U2.
As for LCC at CWL... well we have BMIbaby (biggest carrier at CWL) and also FR who have a twice daily flight to DUB. I am not too sure if you would class Air Wales as big but they have a rather large presence at CWL with them operating domestic and short haul international routes using the ATR42.
I believe that another LCC will open up at CWL within 2005, not to live alongside BMIbaby but to remove them. Possibly, ThomsonFly..
Finally, FR have mentioned that they would like to open some more routes from CWL and possibly even make it into a hub if routes went well..
General Consensus :
The UK will lose at least 1 or 2 LCC..
I believe that MyTravel Lite will disappear along with EUJet..
U2 + FR will expand further at their current bases and possibly open up more routes from other hubs.
BMIbaby + Jet2 + FlyBE will survive.. just.. but will be looking to join forces with each other or other carriers but will do fairly well.
TOMfly From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2004, 73 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (9 years 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2325 times:
I think mergers are the way forward. I cant really see Thomsonfly or Hapag Lloyd Express merging as both airlines have strong names in their country, ie THOMSON holidays in the UK and Hapag Lloyd in Germany. However, I could see more codeshares in future. But maybe Tui express?
Sevenair From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2001, 1728 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (9 years 2 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 2139 times:
like it or not, i think that EZY and FR will control an even greater % of the UK LCC market, especially domestic-and rumours about BMIBaby not surviving the winter, plus a Europeoan 'bloodbath' amongst the LCC market, im surte that only the stronger will survive.
7LBAC111 From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2004, 2566 posts, RR: 42 Reply 7, posted (9 years 2 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 2134 times:
I agree Sevenair.
MOL has warned of a bloodbath, and with Volare and Air Polonia going already these past few weeks, the possibility of Wizz, EUJet and BMIBaby disappearing by winters end will mean the UK market can and will only sustain the likes of Jet2. I feel that because LS marketed routes prior to commencing service (which WW didn't do) and their superior product. FR and U2 will carry on simply due to their size and strength of brand.
It's also likely that Air Berlin and Germanwings will merge, they already cooperate in many ways.
Debate is what you put on de hook when you want to catch de fish.
Sevenair From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2001, 1728 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (9 years 2 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 2014 times:
Oh, sorry , i forgot abt LS, i tihnk they will survive, but perhaps they will feel the pinch should FR/EZY develope as I said previously. I think flyBE will be a serious contended, as they are popular with the business community, and seemingly runs many business routes at a low price. WW do this too, but ive heard many people say that the cant make up their mind; are they an LCC for businesspersons, holiday makers, or a bit of both? The irregular timetabling out of the likes of MME surely cant be a hit with the business commuter
Vfw614 From Germany, joined Dec 2001, 3772 posts, RR: 5 Reply 10, posted (9 years 2 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 1996 times:
I really can't see an Air Berlin / Germanwings merger. Air Berlin and Germanwings are probably the two German LCCs that will survive without a merger. I am pretty certain certrain that Lufthansa will push its "...wings"-concept and expand into more markets through joint ventures. the first is polishwings, and i am pretty certain that at one point we will also see austrianwings and swisswings.
Bmi330 From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2001, 1449 posts, RR: 1 Reply 14, posted (9 years 2 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 1778 times:
Globespan are going to expand in a big way in scotland not just to sunshine destinations GVA, PRG and Paris have now been added to the sunshine routes and soon Transatlantic so i think GS will expand all over europe from GLA and then also over the pond.