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MIA - Life As A Hub If AA Ever Left?  
User currently offlineN62NA From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 4522 posts, RR: 7
Posted (9 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3087 times:

In an excellent thread discussing MIA, DB777 posted this article:

Here's a link to a new article in the South Florida Business Journal titled "Worst Case is Worrisome for MIA."

http://southflorida.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2004/12/13/story1.html?page=1

So, it got me thinking...

IF AA ever did abandon it's MIA hub, would any other airline step in and make MIA a hub?

13 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineSHUPirate1 From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 3670 posts, RR: 16
Reply 1, posted (9 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3057 times:

N62NA-Welcome to Journalism 1001, today's lesson is on creating news to fill up a newspaper because there isn't enough real news to fill the paper. American is not leaving Miami. Miami is, if I had to guess, American's single most profitable hub. They have more widebody flights out of Miami than any other of their hubs, for one. For another, they have so many international routes out of Miami that aren't served by any other US carrier, and in some cases by any other carrier carrier, and as a result, are able to control pricing on those routes. Additionally, with all of the international O&D traffic to and from Miami (and let's face it, most of that South America-Miami traffic is going to Miami, not Dallas, Chicago, or St. Louis), there isn't a straight-thinking soul that, if they ran American, would bail on Miami.


Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (9 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 2996 times:

Yup, this article is writeen from a completely sensationalistic standpoint... little more.

User currently offlineMoman From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 1054 posts, RR: 4
Reply 3, posted (9 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 2998 times:

Shup,

Last I heard STL is AA's most profitable hub, not Miami.

Moman



AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (9 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 2991 times:

LOL, I like that one... was funny!  Big thumbs up

User currently offlineMoman From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 1054 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (9 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 2930 times:

I can't find the article/source on the net, but I am pretty sure I read that in Jan/Feb, STL was AA's most profitable hub, and everyone at AA was quite suprised and pleased by the revelation.

Not sure if that is still the case, can an AA employee confirm?

Moman



AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 984 posts, RR: 51
Reply 6, posted (9 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 2924 times:

Not sure if that is still the case, can an AA employee confirm?

I think we can all but garuntee that STL is *not* AA's most profitable hub. That honor goes to either ORD, DFW, or MIA. Given the recent scale-backs, and inherently smaller size of STL... I just don't see how it's possible


User currently offlineMxCtrlr From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 2485 posts, RR: 35
Reply 7, posted (9 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2846 times:

While the "news article" is a piece of fiction or "what-if" scenario, the fact of the matter is that AA needs MIA far more than MIA needs AA. IF, and that's a HUGE "if", AA were ever to drop out of MIA, then rest assured that someone would fill in the void quite quickly (as EA did when BN went out in 1982, or AA did when EA and PA went out in 1991).

MxCtrlr  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
Freight Dogs Anonymous - O.O.T.S.K.  Smokin cool



DAMN! This SUCKS! I just had to go to the next higher age bracket in my profile! :-(
User currently offlineDB777 From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 885 posts, RR: 43
Reply 8, posted (9 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 2820 times:
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I think AA would have to be in their death throes before they drop MIA and all the high-yield routes they operate here.

However, if AA were to go under, I think it would be more difficult to find another carrier or even two carriers that could operate everything AA operates today no matter how profitable the routes are. And if there's a substantial drop in flight activity, and I believe that will happen because no one or two carriers will totally take over everything AA operates now, the airport will have to jack up rates and charges for the carriers who are left in order to pay the bills. Higher rates and charges might drive some carriers away to FLL or MCO leaving even fewer carriers to pay even higher rates and charges. This whole thing could snowball into one dire situation at MIA.

Times have changed significantly since EA took over BN's routes, and AA buying EA's routes, specifically:

..... there is considerably more competition now by other carriers from other airports (MCO, ATL, IAH, DFW, LAX, ORD, EWR, JFK) to Latin America and the Caribbean than what used to exist. People just don't have to go through MIA as they previously did in order to get to many locations south of here.

..... MIA is a much higher cost airport to operate out of than 13-15 years ago and those costs will continue to escalate for years to come.

..... MIA has developed a bad reputation like JFK did many years ago for making connections, clearing immigrations and customs, surly customer service employees, language barriers, baggage pilfering, etc. etc. The new North and South Terminals will hopefully improve things when they open but they won't solve all the reasons that people dislike about MIA.

..... MIA has lost a tremendous share of O&D traffic for South Florida in the past 13-15 years to FLL and PBI, partly due to low cost competition and partly due to the constant northward shift in the center of population for the region. FLL will have over 20 million pax this year from what I've recently read and back in the late 80's/early 90's it was somewhere around 3 or 4 million. Holy zooks folks, that's one hell of a gain in traffic and yet another reason why MIA won't be so attractive to replacement airlines for AA as it was 13 to 15 years ago.

I can't discuss the probable public clamor for lynchings of our former mayor and every county commissioner who got MIA into this mess if AA goes under because that would be considered political.

Don






Photographing aircraft since the Earth was flat and on Airliners.net since #338
User currently offlineNjdevilsin03 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 731 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (9 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 2797 times:

FLL Passenger numbers....
2003 17,937,708

According to FLL's webiste. Despite the impact of three hurricanes in August and September, year-to-date domestic traffic for the first 10 months of 2004 was up 15.3% compared to 2003. International traffic for the same period was up 26.4%. Total traffic was up 16.1% as 17,030,005 passengers traveled through the facility. It is estimated that total traffic for 2004 will exceed 20 million passengers.

2004 could reach around 22 million if you factor in 2 of the most highly traveled months into FLL. Nov and Dec. Both holiday times and big cruise times. This is one hell of a year from the nation's fastest growing airport.



717, 727, 731, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 752, 753, 762, 763, 777, DC9, MD80, DC10, L1011, ERJ, CRJ, ATR, DH8, A300,
User currently offlineKkfla737 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 1033 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (9 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 2768 times:

"..... there is considerably more competition now by other carriers from other airports (MCO, ATL, IAH, DFW, LAX, ORD, EWR, JFK) to Latin America and the Caribbean than what used to exist. People just don't have to go through MIA as they previously did in order to get to many locations south of here.

..... MIA is a much higher cost airport to operate out of than 13-15 years ago and those costs will continue to escalate for years to come.

..... MIA has developed a bad reputation like JFK did many years ago for making connections, clearing immigrations and customs, surly customer service employees, language barriers, baggage pilfering, etc. etc. The new North and South Terminals will hopefully improve things when they open but they won't solve all the reasons that people dislike about MIA.

..... MIA has lost a tremendous share of O&D traffic for South Florida in the past 13-15 years to FLL and PBI, partly due to low cost competition and partly due to the constant northward shift in the center of population for the region. FLL will have over 20 million pax this year from what I've recently read and back in the late 80's/early 90's it was somewhere around 3 or 4 million. Holy zooks folks, that's one hell of a gain in traffic and yet another reason why MIA won't be so attractive to replacement airlines for AA as it was 13 to 15 years ago."



You've made a couple of excellent points here. I remember when Delta began flying from ATL to South America, Leo Mullin mentioned he was sure they'd be successful because people hated connecting in Miami. That's AA and UA both taking a major hit at Delta's expense back in 1997. Miami had in fact by that time developed the "JFK" reputation. I personally have never flown internationally from any place but Miami and Washington-Dulles, so I cannot judge. I've come through customs at MIA probably 30 or so times and really have no frame of reference to compare it with, but have heard all sorts of complaints.

I believe had Braniff survived the Latin American routes may have eventually seen a begin in shift to DFW. Eastern of course was MIAMI'S AIRLINE, so the shift never happened. Pan Am decided to once again fly to places on Braniff's routes (the old PANAGRA western route leaving Miami) so who knows if BN would have kept all the routes to/from Miami. I'm sure they would have left some at MIA and shifted others to DFW.

Regarding FLL, that is one heck of a jump in traffic. I am dubious about any FLL numbers from the early 90s however, because even though EA was Miami's airline, as far as a traffic void, the collapse of Eastern may have had a greater impact on Fort Lauderdale. Prior to recent years, FLL was essentially a medium sized O&D airport dominated by two regional carriers who flew lots of non-hub routes from FLL (EA and DL). The other carriers basically just flew to their hubs. When EA went under, it took a few years for FLL to recover the lost capacity.


User currently offlineSHUPirate1 From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 3670 posts, RR: 16
Reply 11, posted (9 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2763 times:

There's one more reason, BTW, that I don't see American leaving Miami, namely jetBlue. I can't help but think that if American starts to scale down Miami, that jetBlue will quickly turn the airport into jetBlue International airport, by getting the pickaxe swinging, much like Southwest at Baltimore-Washington with US Airways. And if there is one airline that American does not want to have swinging at it, so to speak, it's jetBlue.


Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
User currently offlineDB777 From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 885 posts, RR: 43
Reply 12, posted (9 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 2715 times:
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Kkfla737: you're right on the old FLL traffic counts being too low. Good catch. Time gets compressed as you get older and apparently I was using figures from the mid to late 70's.

FLL had 8 million total pax in 1991, a drop of 1 million from 9 million in 1990 after Eastern died in January 1991. Even so, FLL has more than doubled their traffic since 1989 when AA began their hub buildup at MIA and that is quite an impact.

For future reference, here is an interesting link to FLL's traffic counts back to 1957 that I found through Google:

http://www.broward.org/airport/avi03900.htm



Photographing aircraft since the Earth was flat and on Airliners.net since #338
User currently offlineKkfla737 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 1033 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (9 years 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2637 times:

Great info, DB777! FLL's growth is all the more remarkable when compared to the decline or fairly stagnant levels at other airports across the country since 9/11.

The Broward County Commission deserves credit as well for making FLL attractive to carriers besides Delta.


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