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7E7 May Push Boeing Past Airbus In 5 Years  
User currently offlineQuestAir From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 367 posts, RR: 0
Posted (9 years 6 months 2 weeks ago) and read 11037 times:

From HeraldNet:

Airbus on Tuesday rolled out the world's largest airliner. A week ago, it announced that it not only sold more airplanes than the Boeing Co. in 2004, it had also built and delivered more planes.

Boeing, on the other hand, missed its goal of selling 200 7E7s in 2004, spent most of last year mired in defense contracting scandals, and last week announced it would shut down its slow-selling 717 program.

Airbus rules the skies. The only question is how long it will hold that crown.

"That's a good question," said Teal Group analyst Richard Aboulafia. "There are reasons to believe that 2005 could see the tide turn for Boeing."

See the rest at http://www.heraldnet.com/stories/05/01/19/100bus_corliss001.cfm

Reactions? Comments? Personally, I agree with the article. The A380 has generated a lot of buzz recently in the media, but will it sell as many planes as the 7E7?


'Do we carry rich people on our flights? Yes, I flew on one this morning and I�m very rich.' - Michael O'Leary
60 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLeskova From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 6075 posts, RR: 70
Reply 1, posted (9 years 6 months 2 weeks ago) and read 10903 times:

but will it sell as many planes as the 7E7

If, as is likely, the B7e7 isn't a complete and total failure but actually a success, then - obviously - no.

And no-one ever expected it to do so.

Regards,
Frank



Smile - it confuses people!
User currently offlineUdo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (9 years 6 months 2 weeks ago) and read 10862 times:

he A380 has generated a lot of buzz recently in the media, but will it sell as many planes as the 7E7?

Who would have ever thought that? Of course the market for the B7E7 is larger larger larger.
But which manufacturer builds more aircraft in five years not only depends on the A380 or B7E7.


Regards
Udo


User currently offlineMacc From Austria, joined Nov 2004, 1033 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (9 years 6 months 2 weeks ago) and read 10782 times:

dont bother about the floating. thats due to historical reasons. we love to be historical here. (as we are the old europe  Big thumbs up )

i am sure that we will see a repetitive change between A and B on the long perspective. well, who cares? it will show, if the 7E7 will have the power to boost sales. it will show, hoow competitive the 350 will be.

once A and B will cool down their respective bashing, they will probably focus on completly new planes, designs and technologies, as i am sure the technological development within the next 10 years will offer chances we cant even think about today.



I exchanged political frustration with sexual boredom. better spoil a girl than the world
User currently offlineLeskova From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 6075 posts, RR: 70
Reply 4, posted (9 years 6 months 2 weeks ago) and read 10784 times:

LongbowPilot, the only reason the parts for the B7e7 won't be floating around is because it would probably either take to long for them to come in from Japan, or it would be too unreliable...

As for the other production facilities, from which parts for the B7e7 will be delivered: do they even have the possibility of using a direct waterway-link up to Seattle?

Regards,
Frank



Smile - it confuses people!
User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 5, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 10754 times:

there facilities are centrally located,

Seattle? Centrally located?

They don't float thier garbage, i mean parts down the river like Airbus.

No, they send them on trains through redneck USA, where hillbillies use new 737 hulls for target practice.

I mean for real the last time anyone in america floated things down the river was in the early 1800's.

Uh huh. I guess you've never lived in a town on the river. The United States still runs a fair amount of its economy on river transportation, just as much if not more now than in the 1800s.

N


User currently offlineUdo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 10722 times:

I think boeing has a better chance of pumping out aircraft, there facilities are centrally located,

Yeah, and exactly for that reason Boeing modifies three B747-400 as special fleighters in order to fly around B7E7 parts...  Wink/being sarcastic



Regards
Udo


User currently offlineIowa744fan From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 931 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 10702 times:

I think boeing has a better chance of pumping out aircraft, there facilities are centrally located, They don't float thier garbage, i mean parts down the river like Airbus. I mean for real the last time anyone in america floated things down the river was in the early 1800's. We float our garbage now more than anything.


As mentioned by BlantantEcho, we in the US are much more futuristic by carrying our 737 fuselages on railcars?

Longbowpilot,

You do realize that many parts of the A380 are transported by air as well. It is just that some parts of it, the fuselage and wings notably, are too big for current modes of air transport that exist. They need to reach the factory somehow, and using barges and boats on rivers and the oceans is a cheap way to take advantage of a resource that is already there. Plus, by reducing the portion of the trip by land, they can do it at night and relieve congestion and avoid spending millions more on new roads and infrastructure. Most of the 7E7 can be carried in the proposed (okayed?) 747 "Guppy" style transports because it is much smaller than the A380. Look at Airbus with other aircraft...they carry wings, fuselage sections, and all kinds of parts for their other aircraft by air.


Leskova,

For the Everett facility, they can transport parts by water quite close to the factory. I think that Mukilteo (which is on Puget Sound or an islet from Puget Sound) is less than 10 miles away. I don't think that there is really a feasible way to get things to Renton though. Quite a bit of stuff arrives by trains.


User currently offlineLeskova From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 6075 posts, RR: 70
Reply 8, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 10677 times:

Iowa744fan, I know about the waterways around Seattle - I was thinking more along the lines of transporting things from Kansas or other facilities (if there are any) further afield... I guess the transports within the Seattle area probably are by rail - would make most sense...

Regards,
Frank



Smile - it confuses people!
User currently offlineQuestAir From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 367 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 10644 times:

To get back to the topic, how many think that Boeing's 7E7 will allow it to surpass Airbus?


'Do we carry rich people on our flights? Yes, I flew on one this morning and I�m very rich.' - Michael O'Leary
User currently offlineAA737-823 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 5731 posts, RR: 11
Reply 10, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 10576 times:

I am not a huge Airbus fan, BUT-
so long as the tide switches now and then, I will be happy. This is supposed to be a free-market system. Granted, we now know that Airbus is forcing A380s on Thai (see other threads) and whatnot, but that's not the point.
Point is, competition is better. Were it not for the A330 and A340, we wouldn't have the 777 and 7E7... at least, not as we know them.
And were it not for the 737-3/4/5, there would be no A320.

SO- so long as they compete and both have periodical triumphs (rather than either of them dwindling like McD-D) I will be satisfied.

Now excuse me, I am going to go book a flight on a Boeing.
 Smile


User currently offlineBoeing7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 10557 times:

To get back to the topic, how many think that Boeing's 7E7 will allow it to surpass Airbus?

Only a family of them will. A single red-headed-stepchild would result in disaster (see the 717).


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 10555 times:

I still think http://www.airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.main/1808809 Boeing will have a serious problem the next 3/4 years with production lines being closed & no 7e7´s yet rolling of the production line & piles of money spend on development..

At the same time it´s cash time for Airbus, production quickly being increased to over 450 aircraft per year (& not only small ones..).

- the maximizing shareholder value drive (short term profits),
- cutting costs : R&D,
- return on investment requirements of a few years,
- paying out big dividends to shareholders & management
- leaning on the big profitable defense contracts

during the period 1997-2004 is now biting Boeing IMO.

productions lines are drying up (717, 747, 757, 767) & while lots of investments are required. I suspect somehow the US government will step in to "level the playing field" or however they´ll call/ justify it.


User currently offlineZone1 From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1035 posts, RR: 7
Reply 13, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 10481 times:

I mean for real the last time anyone in america floated things down the river was in the early 1800's. We float our garbage now more than anything.

The solid rocket boosters for the Space Shuttle are sent via barge from New Orleans. In reality the transportation of parts for the A380 is ridiculous. I talked to this French woman over the summer who lives near one of the roads they have to close down when they are moving the parts. She and her friends aren't too happy about it.



/// U N I T E D
User currently offlineLazybones From Australia, joined Jan 2005, 168 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 10413 times:

Boeing could catch Airbus in 5 years, but that would involve Boeing buying Airbus...hhmmm bit of an MD move there Big grin

But seriously why are people comparing the A380 to the 7E7. They are totally different a/c targeted at totally different market segments. The comparisons should be A380/747 or 7E7/A350.

The 7E7 will do well in the end, its replacing the ageing but much loved 767. Its a revolutionary concept (Mostly electric, All Composite with Bleedless Engines). I think it will be a close contest with 7E7/A350


User currently offlineA350 From Germany, joined Nov 2004, 1100 posts, RR: 22
Reply 15, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 10411 times:

I think with the 7e7 alone they cannot get the crown back,
BUT: At Airbus most products are at the middle of their lifecycle, while Boeing is cuurrently replacing the 767 and, I hope, in a few years the 737NG, which approach the end of their lifetime, by completely new products. So, they are in similar situation as Airbus was 15 years ago. They can attack the market leader, who also has the largest plane, with new planes incorporating the newest technology.

They need not more than three aircraft families:

-the 737NG and an all new, all composite successor at about 2010-2015
-the 7e7 in the midsize market
-and in the huge market 7e7 stretches up to 75m (as the A346) OR an improved generation 777. This could get a composite and new alloy-diet like the A350 and new engines. Both options at approx. 2015

With this program, I'm sure, they can become market leader again.

A350



Photography - the art of observing, not the art of arranging
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 10327 times:

The only true insight in the article is:

"There are real concerns that rather than being a giant luxury transporter that brings greater comforts to customers, the A380 might be used as a 'cattle-class' transporter for the masses by airlines struggling to recoup their costs."

IMO, this is inevitable. The only question is whether Airbus can sell substantially more than 250-300 of the beasts to have made their monumental effort worthwhile.


User currently offlinePilotaydin From Turkey, joined Sep 2004, 2539 posts, RR: 51
Reply 17, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 10303 times:

short and sweet from me...

when you see the word "expert" or the word "analyst"


press delete.....



The only time there is too much fuel onboard, is when you're on fire!
User currently offlineJetjack74 From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 7405 posts, RR: 50
Reply 18, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 10231 times:
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This is history repeating itself. Boeing blew the competition away with the 707 after they all thought (Douglas, Lockheed, and DeHavilend) they had Boeing beat. Low and behold the 707 comes out, and everyone struggles to play catch-up. My friends, Boeing is doing it again, and just like back then, Airbus will have to play catch-up. The A350 is patchwork technology, and the 7E7 is a radical new design for the future. Airbus will wish they never wasted their(sorry the EU's money) on the A380.


Made from jets!
User currently offlineRIX From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 1787 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 10156 times:

"the 737NG and an all new, all composite successor at about 2010-2015" - this is the first thing Boeing should do after 7E7. Don't wait until 737 becomes same "competitive" as 767.

"and in the huge market 7e7 stretches up to 75m (as the A346) OR an improved generation 777" - I think, both. 7E7 family should cover everything from 767 to 772 while '777NG' should rather move to 773/744 market.

And only then - if necessary - a 747 successor. Forget 747Adv, take your time for replacing 737 and enhancing 777, and only then, as it is clear how well 380 does and what the superJumbo market really is (what if the A guys are right, and 700+ pieces can be sold?), build your own. But don't jump to "dethrone" 388/389. Leave the crown to the Europeans for another 30 years - for sure, they deserved it. Rather make 388 capacity "the upper end" - that time you'll definitely have the technology to build a better one - again, if 380 market proves to be large enough.


User currently offlineUdo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 10120 times:

My friends, Boeing is doing it again, and just like back then, Airbus will have to play catch-up. The A350 is patchwork technology, and the 7E7 is a radical new design for the future. Airbus will wish they never wasted their(sorry the EU's money) on the A380.

You must know it...  Wink/being sarcastic
But you forgot one thing: Airbus can waste as much money as they want - they always get what they need, and even more.  Laugh out loud


Regards
Udo


Btw, what's so radical new with the B7E7 that justifies a comparison to the B707? There won't be anything that cannot be matched by Airbus.


User currently offlineJetjack74 From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 7405 posts, RR: 50
Reply 21, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 10052 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

You must know it...
But you forgot one thing: Airbus can waste as much money as they want - they always get what they need, and even more


If this piece of legisaltion goes, they won't be able too. And it is believed that it will. If not then Boeing will get government assistance for the 7E7 and further development costs will be loaned as the same as the military

http://usinfo.state.gov/ei/Archive/2005/Jan/11-998601.html

The “subsidies standstill” will not apply to current aid programs to Airbus and Boeing, but will prevent European governments from committing subsidies to their new Airbus A350, a competitor to Boeing's planned 7E7 Dreamliner.


So, Mr hot-air ballon  Laugh out loud



Made from jets!
User currently offlineUdo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 10033 times:

So, Mr hot-air ballon

Somehow I get the impression you have not smelled the irony in my last reply...  Wink/being sarcastic


Regards
Udo


User currently offlineStartknob From Germany, joined May 2004, 156 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 10005 times:

Dear American friends,

let's face it:
Q: 7E7 May Push Boeing Past Airbus In 5 Years?
A: Maybe, maybe not.
The 7E7 has the prob that it's seen and announced as sooo technologically advanced that everybody wants it to perform like a being from another star.

The 7E7 will burn fuel, it will have weight and as long as the phantastic new technology not has rock-solid proven its stability and realibiility there will be sentiments on airlines. Nothing Boeing will not be able to overcome, but the 7E7 will be not a revolution but just another refinement with some new tech. I assume when the final specs are not drafted but flown some of todays super-tech-gizmo-tech-7E7-hype will have flown away, too.

One prob the 7E7 has in terms of marketing is missing commonality - when you're a carrier that in 2009/2010 has an fleet of older 330s it's really a good question if you want to invest the pilot training cost for a completely new model or simply slash costs by moving to the 350. On the other hand the level of commonality between the 777 and the 7E7 has to be waited for. Would be really interesting...

My best guess: The 7E7 will giving Boeing a push, but this push comes too late to get past Airbus.



When playing cat and mice it's imperative to know, who's the cat.
User currently offlineMilan320 From Canada, joined Jan 2005, 869 posts, RR: 11
Reply 24, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 9990 times:

Just out of curiosity, when was the last time Richard Aboulafia said something positive about Airbus? I can't really remember. It's all objective, if you ask me anyway.
I don't think Aboulafia's word is holy anyway.

/Milan320



I accept bribes ... :-)
25 Jetjack74 : Somehow I get the impression you have not smelled the irony in my last reply... Sorry, I get it now. No harm no foul.
26 Post contains links Jetjack74 : My best guess: The 7E7 will giving Boeing a push, but this push comes too late to get past Airbus. That's all it is, just a guess. But the figures don
27 Airplay : 7E7 May Push Boeing Past Airbus In 5 Years And my ass might grow even bigger by then too. Speculation is a great thing. You're not often called on it
28 CRPilot : Drinking the Koolaid.....it taste good to some folks here, it helps them sleep at night.
29 Jetjack74 : And my ass might grow even bigger by then too Sorry, It already has
30 PVG : The entire US Steel industry (raw material imports) and Grain/Soybean export business relies on river barge transport up and down the Mississippi via
31 PlaneSmart : The pendulum will swing. The 777 was a great starting point. The 7e7 is another great starting point. If B can just make headway with the idea of a 'f
32 MD-90 : I mean for real the last time anyone in america floated things down the river was in the early 1800's. Boeing built their Delta III rocket plant in De
33 DfwRevolution : . Nothing Boeing will not be able to overcome, but the 7E7 will be not a revolution but just another refinement with some new tech That's sooooo wrong
34 HlywdCatft : I think it is quite possible especially when 6 of the top 6 airlines in terms of fleet size all have a large amount of Boeing aircraft in them. I don'
35 Skymileman : HlywdCatft, I couldn't have put it better myself. Excellent analysis of the U.S. market. I would have to agree that NW isn't a very likely candidate f
36 PVG : With all the majors annoucing Q4 losses and even Jetblue and Airtrans expecting to post Q4 losses, I'm not sure that you will even see that many compa
37 N328KF : Skymileman: Yes, that explains why UA bought 60-some 777s instead of A330/A340s.
38 Airbus3801 : I think it is quite possible especially when 6 of the top 6 airlines in terms of fleet size all have a large amount of Boeing aircraft in them. I don'
39 RIX : "UA operates more Airbus aircraft then any other U.S. carrier" - which has nothing to do with them being / not being a potential 7E7 customer (if they
40 AvObserver : Given that Airbus's order backlog is now some 50% higher than Boeing's, I don't see BCA's comeback happening in a mere 5 years, even if the 7E7 is as
41 QFA001 : Given that Airbus's order backlog is now some 50% higher than Boeing's, I don't see BCA's comeback happening in a mere 5 years, even if the 7E7 is as
42 Greaser : Also, the A350 won't cost nearly as much as the 7e7, so I don't see how Boeing can regain control unless the 7e7 is a mega success. You're wrong, the
43 KEESJE : Boeing will also be looking to produce around 72 B777s per year. So who will buy them? Don't forget the A359 will provide a comparable range & load at
44 Greaser : Don't forget the A359 will provide a comparable range & load at considerable lower costs (fuel & purchasing price..) The A359 cannot compete against t
45 KEESJE : The A359 cannot compete against the 777-200LR, 300ER and 300. Want to try again? Fully agreed, however 70% of all 777s are 777-200ER's... Why isn't th
46 Post contains images QFA001 : So who will buy them [the 72 B777s]? It depends a little on what happens with the B7E7-9 vv a possible stretch and EIS. If Boeing presses ahead with E
47 Scbriml : hurriedly cobbled together A350 Don't make the mistake of thinking that the A350 will be anything less than very credible competition for the 7E7. By
48 Post contains images Greaser : Fully agreed, however 70% of all 777s are 777-200ER's Yes, most of the 777s now are the 777-200/ER series. However, many analysts expect a stretch on
49 BeechNut : One thing missing from the debate: the 7E7 will of course have huge R&D costs; that's the risk of going to new (composite) technology. Actually the te
50 Dayflyer : I am sure that over the long haul, both companies will battle back and forth for the title of largest manufacturer. The 7e7 may put Boeing over the to
51 HlywdCatft : **""Cough, Cough. Sorry, but UA operates more Airbus aircraf then any other U.S. carrier, and it is a huge amount, and Northwest has a ton too. Britis
52 Flyinaggie : Boeing needs to take the 747 create a longer second deck like the A380 and use 7e7 "carbon composite" on it. Then the will get the wow back........ Wh
53 A319114 : >My guess is that boeing will start taking cues from the US . Govt to perfect scramjet technolgy, and >begin creating low orbit transportation by abou
54 Post contains images Milan320 : Another thought is that the ESA has not put any men in space through there own creation. (there own space shuttle). Would you trust an agency that has
55 Planemaker : Interesting article on page 398 of AW&ST (Jan. 17th). 5 years will probably not be enough... Forgeard "unveiled" detailed financial data for the first
56 Atmx2000 : SWA is profitable because of their oil hedging which can only last so long. I think SWA has the pricing power in the current market, and once they can
57 Ken777 : It's going to be an interesting battle for sales over the next 5 years. B does have an advantage with the 7E7, but they need to leverage that advantag
58 ScottB : HlywdCatft- Your analysis of potential 737 orders leaves out the largest operator of 737's (with a substantially larger fleet than CO and only about 3
59 QFA001 : Are these your numbers, or has Boeing publicly stated this? The B7E7 data (86) is exact data for the slots that Boeing is offering airlines in 2010. M
60 Scbriml : For example, a more healthy economic outlook for US-based legacy carriers. Have you seen the 4Q results?
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