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Is DL Bankruptcy Imminent?  
User currently offlineDayflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 5288 times:

Read the following article-Analysis of DL financial situation which appeared today:

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050121/BIZ01/501210348/1076

Is DL bankruptcy imminent?


One Nation Under God
36 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSkidmarks From UK - England, joined Dec 2004, 7121 posts, RR: 55
Reply 1, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 5202 times:

They better not, I am flying to SLC with them in September!!  Angry


Growing old is compulsory, growing up is optional
User currently offlineBoeing7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 5190 times:

$1.4 Billion was in special charges that they won't see in the coming months.

User currently offlineFoxecho From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 746 posts, RR: 17
Reply 3, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 5029 times:

Dayflyer-
no.

The pilots and our pay cuts had not kicked in for the Majority of Q4, the pilots paycut did not kick in till Dec 1 and any benefit of that was probably negated by the Comair disaster.....The rest of the company's paycuts came Jan 1 05...we may see the changes for the better on the next report for Q1. I know there are more factors so don't flame me for leaving out stuff I can't think of right now.....but no one seems to have brought these factors up either...

Fly Widget Fly!

Andrew

JFK/MEM/MCI



..uh, we'll need that to live......
User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4537 posts, RR: 18
Reply 4, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 5022 times:

The article says they went through $300 million in cash in the quarter. Anyone know how much cash they have left?


Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently offlineUAL747DEN From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2392 posts, RR: 11
Reply 5, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 5006 times:

Yes I think it is. I dont know why they haven't done it yet, its obvious that they need to renegotiate in order to be competitive and stop loosing so much money. I think that the only reason that they have not is for pride and that is the wrong reason. Today business use Chap. 11 as another business tactic and they need to realize this and use it before its too late and they end up with a little amount of cash on hand have to titter on the edge of liquidation like US is now.


/// UNITED AIRLINES
User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4537 posts, RR: 18
Reply 6, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4989 times:

Waiting too long was nearly the death penalty for TZ.


Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently offlineDayflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 4935 times:

I think that foxecho makes some good points in reply 3 that are worth considering; however, $20 Billion is a crapload of debt. Yes there were some very hefty 1 time charges this qtr, but they lost $400 Million without those charges I believe.


One Nation Under God
User currently offlineLongbowPilot From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 577 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 4795 times:
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However, Delta hasn't taken out the Government loans like US and UA has it?



User currently offlineNWAFA From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1893 posts, RR: 16
Reply 9, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 4781 times:

No Delta has not like US..United did not get a loan from the Government..they just keep getting extension after extension after extension after extension form the BK judge to file a plan.


THANK YOU FOR FLYING NORTHWEST AIRLINES, WE TRULY APPRECIATE YOUR BUSINESS!
User currently offlineLongbowPilot From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 577 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 4750 times:
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It shows great character of the board to not sink to the chapter 11 before you are at the wits end. It shows the financial world that Delta is trying to kick start the car without callin time out.



User currently offlineERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6756 posts, RR: 17
Reply 11, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 4717 times:

When is Delta going to announce the new Song flights? Are there supposed to be new domesticate destinations also, new international destinations, or just added frequency?


Aiming High and going far..
User currently offlineLtbewr From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13040 posts, RR: 12
Reply 12, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 4694 times:

I would suggest that it isn't imminent, but could be possible if economic and other issues continue to press them, like an upward spiral of oil prices, a stagnating economy, a failure of management to cut some money losing routes, not being able to get long term labor costs control then we could see it later this year.

User currently offline727LOVER From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 6413 posts, RR: 17
Reply 13, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 4597 times:

However, Delta hasn't taken out the Government loans like US and UA has it?

Those loans were available in 2001 and 2002. They have expired now. If they were still available, DL probably would apply. So using the US/UA comparison is apples and oranges.



Listen Betty, don't start up with your 'White Zone' s*** again.
User currently offlineAa777jr From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 4588 times:

When will DL run out of $$$


Regards


User currently offlinePanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4876 posts, RR: 25
Reply 15, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 4449 times:
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Delta's cash position at Dec 31, 2004 was $2.1 billion, of which $1.8 billion was unrestricted cash. So, no they are not going to file for Chpt. 11 in the next two quarters at least. If the economy and traffic hold up and if fuel prices do not go up further, they may never need to, especially since the cost savings will start kicking in throughout 2005.

If you look at the numbers closely (after clearing all this smoke about the "largest loss in history", etc.) - I tend to look at the Operating Expenses vs. Operating Revenues numbers since that reflects the core of how Delta is functioning, their operating expenses for Q4 2004 after subtracting the one-time "Impairment of intangible assets" of $1.9 million, was $4.02 billion compared to $3.98 billion for Q4 2003 - and this was with a whopping increase in fuel costs from $510m in 2003 to $895m. Their operating loss for Q4 2004 came in around the same as Q4 2003 despite the 76% rise in fuel costs. If fuel prices remained at the Q4 2003 level, they would have reported a much smaller operating loss of $21m this quarter, compared to $365m in the same quarter last year.

Once the labor savings and additional cuts take effect throughout 2005, you should see improvements (though still probably losses) progressively through the 2005 quarters.

Another hopeful sign is that early results after the rollout of Simplifares is that yields and bookings have been largely in line with expectations, and there has been a "significant improvement" in the load factor


User currently offlineSrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 4367 times:

What's funny about Simplifares is that all Delta did was do away with a number of fare classes that they very rarely used at all.
http://www.aviationplanning.com/predict2005.htm
Scroll about 2/3rds down, under "Airline Trends"

A $2.2 Billion loss in one quarter does not bode well for DL. I say that a June or July filing could be possible if they have another 10-figure loss for the quarter, even with the employee cuts. The bulk of the current quarter includes some of the slowest travel times of the season, and coupled with the ever flucuating fuel costs (DL is not hedged), things could rough for DL.


User currently offline777STL From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3569 posts, RR: 3
Reply 17, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 4285 times:

"Yes I think it is. I dont know why they haven't done it yet, its obvious that they need to renegotiate in order to be competitive and stop loosing so much money. I think that the only reason that they have not is for pride and that is the wrong reason. Today business use Chap. 11 as another business tactic and they need to realize this and use it before its too late and they end up with a little amount of cash on hand have to titter on the edge of liquidation like US is now."

You do realize there's reprecussions to entering bankruptcy don't you?

Bankruptcy isn't something you do and then everything is hunky dorry. Just ask TWA...

-77



PHX based
User currently offlinePanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4876 posts, RR: 25
Reply 18, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 4196 times:
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"A $2.2 Billion loss in one quarter does not bode well for DL. I say that a June or July filing could be possible if they have another 10-figure loss for the quarter, even with the employee cuts. The bulk of the current quarter includes some of the slowest travel times of the season, and coupled with the ever flucuating fuel costs (DL is not hedged), things could rough for DL. "

For the umpteenth time, the 10-figure loss for the quarter included a large accounting NON-CASH item. Whether one enters Chapter 11 is dependent on your CASH position, not your net losses, etc. Delta did not lose 10 figures in cash or from an operational standpoint.


User currently offlineUal777contrail From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 4079 times:

If you have so much money, BK isn't an option.


United did not get a loan from the Government..They just keep getting extension after extension after extension after extension form the BK judge to file a plan.

NWAFA, You are always so vocal how much you think UAL is playing the game. Wouldn't NWA if they were in the same boat? Of coarse they would, you know that, I know that, but you don't want to believe that.

UAL 777 CONTRAIL


User currently offlineOuboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4567 posts, RR: 23
Reply 20, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 4001 times:

United didn't get a loan from the government, and funny...neither did US Airways. People's inability to understand the ATSB process is completely mind boggling. ATSB is nothing but a co-signer when it comes down to it. If the airline defaults on the loan, then the government is stuck with paying it. So none of your precious tax dollars have gone to any airline...US Airways, America West, etc.

For the record...as most should know, the ATSB turned down United's application for the guarantee 3 times.


User currently offlineTango-Bravo From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 3803 posts, RR: 29
Reply 21, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3969 times:

They better not, I am flying to SLC with them in September!!

Not to worry! If Delta does indeed file for bankruptcy, and has been paying any attention to United's exploitation of bankruptcy laws, Delta will be around for at least two more years... and after that be receiving extension upon extension upon extension upon extension... to its bankruptcy protection scam.


User currently offlineERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6756 posts, RR: 17
Reply 22, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3942 times:

Does anyone know if Song has already taken hold of their 12 new aircraft? The transition is in 9 days.. and the Song aircraft are supposed to be changed over by then, correct?


Aiming High and going far..
User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6123 posts, RR: 34
Reply 23, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3936 times:

As Panamair has already pointed out, DL has $1.8-billion in unrestricted cash... up from $1.5-billion a year ago. So Chap. 11 is not imminent!

IMHO, I speculate that perhaps a completely "unintended" part of the Simplifare strategy is to "help" US Air exit the scene (of course helped along by the "unintended" frontal attack by SWA). DL & US have a 60% overlap of revenues.


"What's funny about Simplifares is that all Delta did was do away with a number of fare classes that they very rarely used at all."

Just how many transcon unrestricted 'walk-up' DL fares were $499 or less... and didn't require a Sat night stay???



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineWindowSeat From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 1311 posts, RR: 57
Reply 24, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 3926 times:




Delta's position may be bad, but nothing that will force them to go for Chap 11 in the near future. Fuel costs continue to be unpredictable and there's nothing anyone can do about it. With Delta's cash hovering around $2 billion, they are in a sound position inspite of losing $5m a day. It is when the cash gets below the $1.4 billion mark, that their fingers inch towards the panic button. The huge savings in pilot costs will kick in during Q1 2005 and the new fares structure will bring in the business travelers which they need right now. So, lets not jump the gun here. Delta maybe struggling, but there is light at the end of the tunnel.

cheers





I'm all in favour of keeping dangerous weapons out of the hands of fools. Let's start with keyboards.
25 RyanAFAMSP : I just have to point it out. Delta has the lowest level of unionization in the industry except for jet Blue and Skywest. The employees have given back
26 Planelymad : RyanAFAMSP Interesting then that the unionized pilots at Delta are the most highly paid in the industry and pretty well remain so even after the pay c
27 Zweed : Boys its all up to the market. If the market believes/wants Delta to go down. Delta will go down. Luckily this is not the case. Many bankers believe t
28 GSPITNL : Yes I agree with Zweed. Delta is in a very bad position today, but guess what...Delta will pull right back to the strongest airline they have always b
29 Zweed : What Delta actually has managed to do is to create a great economic plan that will bring the numbers back in black. These changes has been done in all
30 Planemaker : But this will not be the case since we have seen some very drastic and good changes in Delta already. And these changes have started to take effect al
31 Bucky707 : The author of this article (James Pilcher) has had it in for Delta for years. Do a search of his articles and see if you can find one complimentary th
32 Isitsafenow : Comparing PANAMAIR's post number 12, NWA had 2.61 billion dollars with 2.46 unrestricted after Dec 31st. This is good news if you work for or fly NWA
33 Dayflyer : I cetainly hope DL does not go bankrupt. That would trigger a lot of layoffs and such that the hard working people do not need. I am NOT anti-Delta. I
34 GSPITNL : Now that is the best thing you could have said Dayflyer! Here is to Delta Air Lines!
35 Post contains images UAL777CONTRAIL : ~~~~~The author of this article (James Pilcher) has had it in for Delta for years. Do a search of his articles and see if you can find one complimenta
36 MD-90 : I don't think that Michael Boyd has it in for United. It seems to me that their situation really is that grim.
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