Udo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (10 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 4046 times:
But I have to ask: Will the A380 ever turn a profit for Airbus (with the loans paid back) or is the A380 really a European jobs/social program with no financial return expected?
I really hope it turns profitable for Airbus one day. It just depends on market development of the next years, but I'm optimistic.
Calling it a social jobs program is really way too negative. Of course, subsidies may come from taxes. But in the return we get many many highly qualified jobs which would probably go elsewhere. That way we keep intelligent people as well as taxes in the country. And the A380 production will create great synergies all over the industry in Germany, resulting in development of new technologies, creating more jobs and securing more income and taxes. I think at the end, the loans and subsidies pay back, even if EADS themselves don't do it on their own.
Trevd From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 338 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (10 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 4006 times:
Yawn... more political exageration:
"According to the Chief of German Federation of Air and Space Industry (BDLI) Hans-Joachim Gante, around 4,400 jobs have already been created in the yard in Hamburg."
So throughout the entire design, planning and initial production phase this white elephant has added 4,400 job. Now once all that is done this is supposed to add another 35,600 jobs? That's about as likely as the A380 ever being profitable.
Udo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (10 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 3962 times:
Just another AirSub Industrie jobs program !!
Yawn. Have you ever heard that production of an aircraft includes more jobs than only these around the end production line? The article is not only about direct but also indirect jobs created by the project. Synergies, you know?
Flying-Tiger From Germany, joined Aug 1999, 4180 posts, RR: 35
Reply 5, posted (10 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 3909 times:
@ SATL382G: Airbus has stated a break-even of 250 frames for the A380, and has already sold 149 frames, excluding options. This means, they need another 101 firm orders to reach their break-even. Several orders are under negotiation, including the order from China Southern, which would lower the "to-be-needed" firm orders to 96. Several customers have inidcated that they are interested in converting options, including Lufthansa. Airbus itself predicts a market of about 1,200 frames until 2022, of which they expect to capture at least 750 frames - and that over a period of 20 years.
Noboday except of Airbus and the involved governments knows the exact way, how the loans will be payed back (the loans covered about 1/3 of the development costs, about 3.5 bn USD). In the past the usual way has been, that Airbus has to pay back the loan as soon as they turn a profit on the plane - which means that they first need to sell 250 frames, and after that the governments are paid back. In addition Airbus has to pay royalities for every frame sold - this means for the already sold frames as well. That means, when the loans have been payed back, the governments will still recieve money when Airbus sells an A380.
If we expect that an A380-800 sells at 180 million USD, and Airbus has costs (including royalities which I would set at 1 million USD per frame) of around 140 million USD, they turn a profit of 40 million per frame each. If we further assume that Airbus uses the complete profit to repay the loans, Airbus needs to sell 88 A380-800s to repay the loans. (for 30 million profit the number is 116, for 20 million it is 175, for 10 million it is 350 frames). Again, selling another 175 frames in addition to the 250 stated for break even (NOTE: we don´t know if the loan repayment has not already been included into the break-even figure, which could be possible) makes a total of 425 frames needed to be sold - and compare that to the estimated market of 1,500 frames of which Airbus wants to capture 750 frames.
In general we can say: governments are already payed back today, however the main repayment phase will be when Airbus breaks even on the A380. And this seems to be very, very likely. Thus it isn´t a "wellfare project", only subsidyzing the European industry to create jobs. It is a commercial project that has recieved repayable start-up financing.
@ Trevd: Just for your information: Hamburg-Finkenwerder is ONE Airbus plant out of 15 (Germany: Nordenham, Varel, Stade, Bremen; France: Toulouse, Nantes, Méaulte, St. Nazaire; Spain: Getafe, Ilescas, Puerto Real, UK: Broughton, Filton) Airbus plants in Europe. The 4,400 jobs created just attribute to the plant in Hamburg. All other German Airbus plants have added jobs as well (need to look up how many), at a time when many parts have been outsourced to subcontractors.
Even in Hamburg alone, subcontractors have added over 2,000 jobs in the past two years which can be directly attributed to the A380 production run-up, and another 2,000 will be added within the next 18 months. For example the Airbus Cabin Equipment Center, which will be run by a subcontractor. The MWZ, operated by another subcontractor, which will bundle the A380 parts logistics, is creating over 150 new jobs. And so on... That make in Hamburg alone about 8,400 jobs created by the A380 - and don´t forget, the production is just starting, and has not even remotely reached the expected out-put rate of around 3-4 frames a month. To be able to cope with this production rate, many companies will have to employ additional people.
Besides: the term "White Elefant" is usually attributed to failed infrastructure projects... not to planes.
Dazeflight From Germany, joined Jun 1999, 580 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (10 years 6 months 2 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 3399 times:
talk about selective reading. It said it has directly created 4000 jobs in the yard of Hamburg. It is not talking about the suppliers and other indirectly created jobs. The "design, planning and initial production phase" as you say it was in Toulouse, just a small part of this has been done in Hamburg.
TriStar500 From Germany, joined Nov 1999, 4704 posts, RR: 40
Reply 7, posted (10 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 3317 times:
The A380 must scare the hell out of some people if they are so desperately badmouthing the project. I guess Airbus is on the right track if there is such a vocal and at the same time clueless opposition in a certain North American country.
Homer: Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!