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Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380  
User currently offlineClipperHawaii From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 2033 posts, RR: 12
Posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 11929 times:

Joe Sutter is recognized as the main man behind the 747. I think what he has to say is right on target. Including the "subsidies" question.

"The big question is, what kind of an airplane is it? Will it satisfy the customers? That's the 64-million-dollar question, and only time will tell."


http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/207467_air12.html?source=rss


"You Can't Beat The Experience"
38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineNIKV69 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 11764 times:

Very interesting. I think what may be the downfall of the A380 is that it may not be profitable as a cargo plane and that there is only a few carriers such as Emirates, Singapore or Cathy Pacific that can use it. Time will tell.

User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 11715 times:


Yet to see any Boeing employee not saying "A380 is great but ..."

"Twenty years from now," Sutter said last week," it could be that the 747 is the airplane that's left and the A380 has also disappeared."

Spoken like a very proud father.


The last words say it all...




User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12324 posts, RR: 35
Reply 3, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 11619 times:

Now that's the kind of legacy I'd like to leave - at 84, to be able to look back on a career like that.

BUT, to sidestep the whole subsidy issue, the real greatness of the 747 was the risk involved. I know that involves costs such as railways and factories, the aviation environment in the mid to late 60s is much different to what it is today. The aircraft was around twice the size of anything else in service and load factors were generally poor.

Today, the A380 is only 20-25% bigger than the 747 and load factors are far higher than they are today. Air traffic will grow and demand will grow; airport capacity will not keep pace.

With all due respect to Boeing and Sutter, the 747 is close to its end and with much regret, I don't see the new 747 Advanced getting off the ground.


User currently offlineLeskova From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 6075 posts, RR: 70
Reply 4, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 11503 times:

These lines sum it up best...

Sutter's reputation in the world of big airplanes was such that Boeing executives took him along on their most important sales campaign for the 747X -- to Singapore Airlines.

Top airline officials greeted Sutter as if he were an engineering god.

Singapore Airlines, however, ordered the A380.



However impressive his past achievements are - they are the past.

Should Boeing upgrade the B747-400 into the B747 Advanced, then his words about the B747 outliving the A380 have a small chance of becoming true... should, as I think is about a 50:50 chance right now, Boeing decide not to upgrade the B747, then the absolutely only chance for it to happen is for the A380 to turn into a complete failure - which is rather unlikely.

Regards,
Frank



Smile - it confuses people!
User currently offlinePlaneSmart From New Zealand, joined Dec 2004, 790 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 11386 times:

Taking Sutter to SX just about sums up B marketing in the last 5yrs. SX officials would be extremely polite, and their engineering staff would be very impressed to meet a legend. But they would be thinking, why is he here?

In terms of good marketing....... It's like bringing out the B photo album. Look at all the great models we have produced..........

But this is 2005. We only want to know about you're great 2005 and future models. Tell us about the 747ADV.

You take personalities to customers when you haven't much to say. In marketing speak we refer to them as 'fillers' or 'diversions'.

SX employ some of the best negotiators in the business, and they would have given clear feedback to SX senior execs - B have / will have nothing to offer against the A38. They also hate having their time wsted too.


User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 11055 times:

I think Boeing's vagueness about the future of the B747 is very calculated and deliberate.

In the next two years or so, the A380's real performance will be known variables. Once they figure out mission profiles in which the A380 shows vulnerability to airplanes with fewer seats, Boeing can (and I think will) re-design the B747 to knock out the lower end of A380 market. There is no reason to act before the A380 racks up some service hours.

A lot of people like to point to the B747's age as evidence of the design's obsolesence. While certain technologies and design features are surely out -of-date, the design is fundamentally sound, reliable, and profitable for operators.

Why substantially change something that has worked so well for so long and promises to keep doing so?


User currently offlineLnglive1011yyz From Canada, joined Oct 2003, 1606 posts, RR: 15
Reply 7, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 11014 times:

Did you really expect him to say anything other than what he said?

Honestly.

This just fuels the whole A vs B thing even further HAHA

Ford isn't going to congratulate Chevy for building a newer, revolutionary function for a car.

GE isn't going to congratulate RR for building a more efficient engine.

My oh my.

1011yyz




Pack your bags, we're going on a sympathy trip!
User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10514 times:

Joe Sutter is not some two-bit salesmen. He indeed does congratulate the competition for the engineering achievement as have some other Boeing executives. As the article states, he is known for being incredibly blunt and is a world-renowned engineer. Since he has been telling it like it is for 50 + years apparently, he has no reason to change form now. And of course he is proud of the legend he helped create.

User currently offlineMD-90 From United States of America, joined Jan 2000, 8494 posts, RR: 12
Reply 9, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10329 times:

While the 727 did not have a single man driving its development forward as a project to the extent that Sutter was the "father" or the 747, Sutter is also the person who could be considered the most significant developer of the 727.


At least, I think it was Sutter. I don't have my book with me here at school to confirm that.

[Edited 2005-01-23 09:56:20]

User currently offlineCol From Malaysia, joined Nov 2003, 2087 posts, RR: 22
Reply 10, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10313 times:

Joe Suter is one major reason we have the 380. The 747 has done extremely well, and Joe's comment on customer satisfaction is the one critical point. Carriers flying the 380 offering good comfort at a good price will see the demise of 744 operations, unless Boeing do the 747ADV.

Someone commented that Boeing could be doing the waiting game on 380 performance prior to 747ADV, I agree this could be a smart move as long as the line is kept going.


User currently offlineUdo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10301 times:

Very interesting. I think what may be the downfall of the A380 is that it may not be profitable as a cargo plane

FedEx, UPS, Emirates and several other interested airlines may disagree on this…  Insane


and that there is only a few carriers such as Emirates, Singapore or Cathy Pacific that can use it. Time will tell.

Huh? Air France, Korean Air, Lufthansa, Malaysia Airlines, Qantas, Thai and Virgin cannot?  Wink/being sarcastic
Btw, nice to see you already agree on Cathay as a hot A380 candidate...  Smile/happy/getting dizzy


"Twenty years from now," Sutter said last week," it could be that the 747 is the airplane that's left and the A380 has also disappeared."

The first to disappear is that guy himself, then follows the B747. Simple as that.



Regards
Udo


User currently offlineCyclonic From Australia, joined Jan 2005, 231 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10295 times:

The more I read these topics obviously posted by Boeing fans, the more this whole thing reeks of sour grapes. Thats not to say that the Airbus fans aren't as bad, because they are too, but...

C'MON GUYS, GET OVER IT ALREADY! Let the planes tell the story, not your disgruntled attitudes. I, for one, have had enough.



Keith Richards: The man that Death forgot...
User currently offlineGreaser From Bahamas, joined Jan 2004, 1092 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 9895 times:

FedEx, UPS, Emirates and several other interested airlines may disagree on this…

I believe he meant high density high weight loads, not packages. Also, Airbus shut the door on the relatively small yet significant market that requires it's nose/tail to swing open to place oversize loads for the side doors. I'm not well-versed in the cargo area of things so maybe someone else can elaborate.



Now you're really flying
User currently offlineGlideslope From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1594 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 9068 times:


Very interesting article. I never thought about the possible cargo configuration issues. Really makes one think.



To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
User currently offlineFrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3613 posts, RR: 11
Reply 15, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 9023 times:

There might still be many doubts about the A380's commercial success, but there sure was a lot more of them when they first flew the 747!!

I've been told It turned out fine, and the bet was a much greater one then...



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlineGMUAirbusA320 From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2004, 243 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 8587 times:

Jeez, that article is like asking George W. if Iraq was a mistake. HAHAHAHA!

Yeah, give the 380 a few years. I think some of us in the US are paranoid that someone else MIGHT have something better. Lets see how it goes. Everyone get out the boxing gloves...it's going to be brutal.

Cheers,
GMUAirbusA320


User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 8450 times:

A very interesting article.

However, when Sutter states that all the "other" big jets developed at the same time as the 747 have disappeared from the market, but that the 747 remains he is overreaching and glossing over reality.

For one, the 747 is the only aircraft in its class, i.e, in the 350-450 passenger class, for the past 35 years. It had no real competitors in that class, per se, especially as demand for travel skyrocketed with the advent of wide-bodied transports in the 70s. The DC-10 and the L-1011 pretty much destroyed each other competitively, and by the time they exited, there were numerous other options in the 200-300 passenger class of transports: the AB6, 763, 777, A330 and A340. The reason the 747 pretty much stayed on top of its game was because the competition didn't challenge its supremacy.

And lets remember that Airbus wasn't around back in 1968. But lets say that Airbus' gamble with the A300 paid off. I remember how Boeing pooh-pooh'ed the wide-bodied twin-engined medium-haul concept when the AB3 was first launched. Well, that concept has paid off for Airbus - and Boeing.

Needless to say, the fact that the 747 still remains the yardstick by which all commercial transports are judged by the travelling public says a lot for it. I still think its a fantastic airplane and go out of my way to fly it over the competing Boeing or Airbus models.


User currently offlineUAcsOKC From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 107 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 8371 times:

You can't say Airbus is not well versed in cargo aircraft- they use an outsize version of their own aircraft to fly fuselage setions to their assembly plant. but the 380, I believe, was not designed for cargo. It was design to create and fulfill a market for super large aircraft. If they'd intended it as a heavy cargo carrier, they'd have designed it that way. Boeing should stick by their plane, ultimately the high floor loading could keep it successful as a heavy frieghter.


I love the rumble of a 727 takeoff in the morning!
User currently offlineClipperHawaii From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 2033 posts, RR: 12
Reply 19, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 7926 times:

Funny, I have the distinct feeling that more people will have flown a 747 airframe than a A380 when it's all said and done. That will be a very interesting fact if true 30 years from now.

The first to disappear is that guy himself, then follows the B747. Simple as that.

In timeline yes, but his influence on the 747, the traveling public and Airbus itself is nonpareil. No Sutter, no Airbus A380. It's as simple as that!







"You Can't Beat The Experience"
User currently onlineOldAeroGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3423 posts, RR: 67
Reply 20, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 7912 times:

As an aside, the father of the 727 was Jack Steiner.


Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 7795 times:

Funny, I have the distinct feeling that more people will have flown a 747 airframe than a A380 when it's all said and done. That will be a very interesting fact if true 30 years from now.

And probably true, given that there will be several wide-bodied transports available 30 years from now.

However, if air travel in places like China and India really take off, you may find domestic A380s flying several daily domestic roundtrips between Indian and Chinese metros and operating purely as large-scale people movers much like the way 747s operate between Japanese cities today.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 24641 posts, RR: 86
Reply 22, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 7566 times:
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I'm not sure what any of this proves.

The 747 was a fantastic achievement, but is time to stand still?

Are we to say, hey, the 747 was great, there should never be another aircraft of similar of greater capacity?

is the 747 to be the end of line for jumbo's?

What a dull old world that would be.

cheers

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 7373 times:

Are we to say, hey, the 747 was great, there should never be another aircraft of similar of greater capacity?

I believe that what Boeing is asserting is not that an aircraft of greater capacity is not needed ever again, it's just that at this point in aviation history such an aircraft MAY be a white elephant. Clearly, Boeing's belief is that greater point to point traffic bypassing major hubs is how airline traffic will evolve over the next few decades. Under such a scenario, traffic growth can be met with aircraft in the 777/A340 and - 7e7 - size range.



User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 24641 posts, RR: 86
Reply 24, posted (9 years 2 months 4 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 6920 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Jaysit:

In this case, it isn't Boeing saying anything, it is an intereview with Sutter, and he doesn't mention point to point flying.

If, as Mr. Sutter says, there is room for both the 747ADV and the A380, this would seem to throw the Boeing position out the window.

cheers

mariner



aeternum nauta
25 Udo : In timeline yes, but his influence on the 747, the traveling public and Airbus itself is nonpareil. No Sutter, no Airbus A380. It's as simple as that!
26 Dayflyer : Airbus has much to thank Boeing for in the 747. Without it the A-380 would not have ever been developed. As such, Udo, every single time the A-380 lif
27 Mariner : Dayflyer: And the 747 owes much to the 707 (and even the Stratocruiser), and the 707 owes much to the Comet, and so it goes. It is called progress. ch
28 Sebolino : Airbus has much to thank Boeing for in the 747. Without it the A-380 would not have ever been developed. The A380 was developed to catch a market segm
29 Udo : Airbus has much to thank Boeing for in the 747. Without it the A-380 would not have ever been developed. As such, Udo, every single time the A-380 lif
30 M27 : "- a design from the 60s - survives the A380 goes way too far." Udo, that is your opinion, just like what Sutter said was his opinion. I believe I had
31 Mariner : M27: "Some of you guys are sure setting a high standard for the A380." Or perhaps they are just being defensive in the face of relentless negativity f
32 M27 : "M27: "Some of you guys are sure setting a high standard for the A380." Or perhaps they are just being defensive in the face of relentless negativity
33 Post contains images Lehpron : N79969 : >>"I think Boeing's vagueness about the future of the B747 is very calculated and deliberate. "
34 Post contains images Udo : When you design something that surpases the 747, or even when the A380 surpases the 747, then you will know! Until then, you are just blowing smoke. I
35 Mariner : M27: "...I take it you agree with me in principal.." No. What has happened, especially over the last few days, has been extremely interesting. I am ne
36 M27 : Udo: So it is your opinion then! I refer to this"However, saying that the B747 - a design from the 60s - survives the A380 goes way too far." It reall
37 ClipperHawaii : However, saying that the B747 - a design from the 60s - survives the A380 goes way too far. Huh???? Anyway, all this silliness. Fact is the 747 is pro
38 Post contains images Lehpron : >>"Fact is the 747 is proven. The A380 is not"
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