Juventus From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 2835 posts, RR: 2 Posted (10 years 1 month 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 10519 times:
The January issue of Airline Business Magazine, has an article on the A380.
The A380 program director responding to the size and orders "We have great order expectations. Any 747 order, is a potential A380 order ". If the difference is more than 200 seats, I don't think they should be compared.
On a related story. The article also said that Boeing has not received an order for the 747-400 (passenger configuration) since 2002. Is the production line open just for the cargo sector?
Trex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 5027 posts, RR: 14
Reply 1, posted (10 years 1 month 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 10385 times:
The last orders for passenger 744s were for 4 for CI in 2002 and 2 have been delivered already and IIRC the other 2 are due this year, MH supposedly has 2 still on the books from a previous order for delivery in 08 and 09. Wanna bet those never happen?
N328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6508 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (10 years 1 month 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 10154 times:
No, they're betting on the hub-centric trend. If they were betting on the other one, they'd scrap the A330/A340/A350 altogether and do a new airframe from scratch. What they're doing is trying to save what sales they can hedging against Boeing's (so far successful) attempt to cut into a segment where they were not quite prepared.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
B2707SST From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 1374 posts, RR: 59
Reply 10, posted (10 years 1 month 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 10106 times:
Boeing has said that half of all 747s produced before the mid-1990s were sold for their range, not their capacity. The arrival of long-range 300-seaters like the 777 and A340 has taken a big bite out of 747 sales, which have obviously slowed pretty dramatically. Even if the A380 takes most of the rest of that market, will it be enough to recoup a $15 billion investment?
Sjoerd From Belgium, joined Aug 2003, 361 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (10 years 1 month 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 10103 times:
I partially agree that A is playing catch up and it remains to be seen how successful they are with the A350.
The A350 is not some cheap derivative just because it will have the same fuselage dimensions, it will have a completely new wing (with a higher degree of composites than in the B787 one) and new engines, meaning pretty much a new aircraft. Development costs are about 5 bn usd. Not too much is known about the A350 but A is smart enough to make it competitive with the B787 and they still have time to make adjustments.
You can't deny that Airbus has a product for each future trend and that Boeing does not.
On the other hand it would have been stupid of Airbus to launch something like the A350 before Boeing launched the B787. Their products (A332 and A333) were outselling Boeings product (B767s) so there was no need to invest as there was no real competition. They were (and still are and will be for the next 3.5 years) making a lot of money with them. When B acted A reacted (they saw the need, were able to and had the will to) !
I think there is a need for a middle sized long range aircraft and a very large long range aircraft in the future. Airbus offers both types, Boeing only offers one type.
Airbus is definitely not betting on the hub trend alone !
[Edited 2005-02-03 04:56:25]
Flanders + Wallonnia + Brussels = the UNITED STATES of BELGIUM
Avek00 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4432 posts, RR: 20
Reply 12, posted (10 years 1 month 1 day ago) and read 10078 times:
"The A350 is not some cheap derivative just because it will have the same fuselage dimensions, it will have a completely new wing (with a higher degree of composites than in the B787 one) and new engines, meaning pretty much a new aircraft."
No, new engines and new wings do NOT equal a new aircraft, period.
TrevD From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 336 posts, RR: 3
Reply 16, posted (10 years 1 month 22 hours ago) and read 9892 times:
Sjoerd - Yes I do, but only if they follow through and do the upgrades necessary to make the airplane competitive.
I've seen numbers from both manufacturers on the A330 and the 7E7 and I'm convinced that Airbus must react to the 7E7. Otherwise Boeing will run away with the entire middle of the market and instantly obsolete the A300, A310's (I know, gone anyway), but also today's current A330 and A340-200's and -300's. So Airbus must respond - and quite frankly, I give them credit for reacting as quickly as they have in recognizing the threat.
But to be competitive, they are truly going to have to do a complete overhaul of the A330 product and offer similar 7E7 technology engines, the new wing, and improve overall structural efficiency (i.e. fuselage). If they do all that, then yes, I do believe the A350 has a chance of being a success!!
AvObserver From United States of America, joined Apr 2002, 2478 posts, RR: 9
Reply 17, posted (10 years 1 month 21 hours ago) and read 9863 times:
"kind of a stupid comment to make from the A380 program director."
I agree. There's been at least airline interest, if not yet launch orders, for BCA's 747 Advanced proposal. I think that's because some of these airlines would prefer a nominal 450 seater, not 550 or so. The A380 has stolen many 747 sales but it won't necessarily take all of them. If a carrier knows it can't fill 500+ seats, it might look for something a bit smaller but comparable in other aspects. Whether the Adv. gets launched is still in doubt but for airlines to be looking at it, there must be some interest in having a somewhat smaller airplane than the A388. Even a difference of 100 seats, not just 200 or more, seems significant. Not everyone will want to 'misuse' the A380 like Singapore to fly fewer than 500. The current 744 for passengers may be a lame duck but a tweaked, reengined 747 stretch seems to have appeal for many that aren't quite ready to join the superjumbo club, if it's price is kept reasonable.
UAL747DEN From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2392 posts, RR: 11
Reply 18, posted (10 years 1 month 20 hours ago) and read 9793 times:
You won't hear too many good things about Airbus from me so read closely it might be the only time!
Now it should be obvious that Airbus is going to have the best large aircraft on the market. Even if Boeing makes the 747ADV it will not be as good as the A380. Boeing would make it for 2 reasons. 1) Fleet commonality 2) Less people. Boeing is playing catch up on this project. If an airline can save a little by buying the A380 over the 747ADV but they have an all Boeing fleet, would they add the Airbus and all the costs that come along or just use the Boeing? I think that most would use the Boeing and that is what Boeing is trying to figure out right now! If Airbus is the only maker out there than the airlines dont even have a choice and Boeing is just giving customers away.
Now as far as the 787, Boeing is producing the best aircraft for this market. Airbus is catching up. Airbus will make the A350 because they do not want to just give the market to Boeing. Would an all Airbus airline want to add the Boeing, NO! Would they pay a little more to have to Airbus? YES, and there it is that is why one is making the other. If they didnt they are giving up the market and its hard to get back what you have given away.
PlaneSmart From New Zealand, joined Dec 2004, 1196 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (10 years 1 month 20 hours ago) and read 9686 times:
'If an airline can save a little by buying the A380 over the 747ADV but they have an all Boeing fleet, would they add the Airbus and all the costs that come along or just use the Boeing? I think that most would use the Boeing and that is what Boeing is trying to figure out right now!
At the moment airlines have the choice of a 744 ('80/90's technology/efficiency) which B can heavily discount (all R&D and associated costs amortised) or A38.
If B develop a 744ADV, they can make a few changes that produce the easiest (cheapest benefits), like new engines, tweak wing, lighten structure. It will produce benefits over the 744, but cost more than a 744, and be a short life (interim) improvement for customers, with high degree of commonality. It could be ready in 2008/9. But who wants it? Quite frankly this version of the 747ADV could be a retrofit to existing aircraft, something no doubt that B are concerned about. Conversions occur instead of new sales.
The other option is a much more drastic change. This version of the 747ADV would offer A38 operating efficiencies, or better. Delivery in 2010/11, depending how much of a new model it really is.
But if B are delivering a 747ADV in 2011 (with no R&D/production & start-up costs amortised), and A are delivering A38's (with a high % of R&D/production start-up costs amortised), A has the ability to discount (just as B can do now with the 744), where B won't be able to.
That shifts lifetime ownership costs in favour of the A38, and allows SQ for instance to operate one model instead of 2 (immediate savings), and the financial penalty of operating a 550 seat aircraft with 450 passengers, versus a 450 seat aircraft with 450 passengers shrinks.
B are now trying to gain support for something between these two extremes, with little interest. I haven't encountered a single client that is seriously looking at the 747ADV, or believes B is serious either. The one qualification is, if A38 performance isn't as expected. If this happens, the expectation is that sales of both the A38 and 787 will halt, pending A38 solutions and 787 performance.
UAL you mention a 'Boeing fleet'. Are we talking 747ADV commonality with other 747's? Apart from the B name, the current model range is anything but common. The 747ADV design team (or perhaps other more senior influences)can't even decide whether cockpit commonality will be based on 744, 777, 787 or something else.
Boeing7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (10 years 1 month 17 hours ago) and read 9508 times:
The point is that Airbus is betting on 2 future trends (A350 and A380) and Boeing 's money is only on one (B787) so far.
You and Airbus keep thinking that and you'll wake up one morning very shortly here and find you've had your asses handed to you on a silver platter while you spent all of your available investment money on a 550 pax single use aircraft.
Boeing7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (10 years 1 month 17 hours ago) and read 9480 times:
Nope.. Just being straight up. If Airbus thinks Boeing is going to build the 787 as an orphan aircraft and people want to think that then they will wake up one morning after Boeing has announced an entire line of new, more efficient aircraft seating from 100 to 350 passengers and have absolutely no response, and no way to respond other than play catch up and make quick modifications to existing airframes. Just like Boeing has had to do in the last few years.