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BA And A380 - Is There A Problem?  
User currently offlineEdka From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2004, 376 posts, RR: 1
Posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 6306 times:

Have read a small but very interesting article yesterday - BA reluctance to order A380 is apparently due to a fact that Rod Eddington does not like to order a brand new launched aircraft. However, according to some financial analysts, BA's problem is down to their large B747 fleet, which analysts predict A380 is going to kill. It was sort of all doom and gloom for BA, whether they order A380 or not. Does anyone else share this opinion?
Thanks

19 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineFCKC From France, joined Nov 2004, 2348 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 6228 times:

One day or another BA will buy the A380.
Could you confirmed that Rod Eddington will leave the head of BA very soon , as it has been rumoured ?
If this is the case , wait for the arrival of the new CEO for any decision about the A380.I doubt Eddington will place an A380 order before leaving BA.


User currently offlineBA380 From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 1466 posts, RR: 8
Reply 2, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 6212 times:

is there a link to the story or source, please? I don't follow what you mean that BA's problem is its large 744 fleet that the 388 will kill.

as my ID suggests, though, I would love to see BA order some 388s!



cabin crew: doors to automatic and cross-check...
User currently offlineBA380 From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 1466 posts, RR: 8
Reply 3, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 6195 times:

is there a link to the story or source, please? I don't follow what you mean that BA's problem is its large 744 fleet that the 388 will kill.

as my ID suggests, though, I would love to see BA order some 388s!



cabin crew: doors to automatic and cross-check...
User currently offlineEDKA From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2004, 376 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 6151 times:

BA380
i don't have a link, but it was in last night's Evening Standard, in the business section.
I guess what they have meant (not me!) is that because of larger pac capacity of A380 and cheaper fares, that will drive passengers away from the core BA747 routes (if they don't order A380), and if they do, they will end up with a large and empty 747 fleet. Either way not such good news for BA...



User currently offlineJamotcx From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 1037 posts, RR: 25
Reply 5, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 6107 times:

Could you confirmed that Rod Eddington will leave the head of BA very soon , as it has been rumoured ?

Well all them rumours came about because Rod Eddington said he would only want to take charge for X years (5 i believe?) and X years is now approaching.


Jamo


User currently offlineTheBigOne From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2004, 240 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 6060 times:

Hi Edka

I believe I would be correct in saying that British Airways (not Rod Eddington)has had a policy for a while now not to be the launch customer for aircraft. BA's history with new aircraft has not been the most successful, and a lesser airline would have collapsed due to the repercussions. If you look all the way back to the BOAC and the Comet, BA would rather have let other airlines find out that the aircraft had severe metal fatigue problems. Concorde would most probably never have been ordered if BA realised that only 14 would ever be operated. The 747 has been successful for BA, but the original 100 series had problems with the Pratt and Whitney engines, and it was months before they could be operated as originally planned. More recently with the 777, BA was heavily involved in the development of the aircraft and an important launch customer. This however was not without its headaches as the early GE90s needed a bit of TLC which affected dispatch reliability. I'm sure that once the A380 has been in service for a few years, BA will place a substantial order to serve the numerous high capacity Asian destinations it serves.



Reach for the stars - they are closer than you think!
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 6020 times:

Problem is if BA comes after production is running, 200 aircraft have been ordered and the aircraft has proved to be as reliable as promised,
the Airbus sales guy will enter his room, pick a sigar from his desk & sit down in the best seat, having a big smile all over his face..

unhealthy situation if you ask me..


User currently offlineBA380 From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 1466 posts, RR: 8
Reply 8, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5978 times:

Keesje

i would agree with you. I guess that their logic is that they would prefer to pay more later on when risk is minimised than get a bargain that has a higher risk factor. Investors hate risk and so I guess that is what is guiding BA. I would have thought that if BA ordered 10-14 380s they could easily fill them n the JFK and SYD runs.



cabin crew: doors to automatic and cross-check...
User currently offlinePlaneSmart From New Zealand, joined Dec 2004, 947 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5960 times:

Keesje. You mean like when B called on JAL for the 737 order.

BA order for the A38 is a must have for A, so when performance is known, and/or Eddington heads South, expect A to make BA a very tempting multi-model offer.


User currently offlineBCAL From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2004, 3384 posts, RR: 16
Reply 10, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5889 times:

If we are talking about BA, as opposed to its predecessors, it is wrong to say that BA's history with new aircraft has not been the most successful.

BOAC, and to a smaller extent BEA, were launch customers of the Comet, Concorde, etc due to political reasons. You must remember that at the time the aircraft were introduced, both airlines were under state control and ownership. In brief, the Comet project took air travel into the unknown - it flew higher and faster than any aircraft and introduced new technology.

The origins of the Comet project went back to the years of World War 2. The British Government wanted to give the nation something to be proud of and the Comet fitted the project nicely. Who other than BOAC, the state owned airline, than to be the launch customer? If the Chairman of BOAC had refused, then clearly he would have been fired from his job by the government. BOAC was not the only airline desperate to be the first with the Comet - privately owned airlines like Pan Am, UTA, and other state-owned airlines like SAA, Air France etc all placed orders for Comets.

It was rumoured that BOAC did not want Concorde but again Government interference forced them to take the aircraft. After all, if the state airlines of Britain and France, developers of Concorde, did not want the aircraft, would anybody else want it? IIRC the UK Government bore all costs of buying and introducing Concorde in BOAC's fleet.

Once the metal fatigue problems were found and solved, Comet did enjoy some modest success. It beat the 707 by being the first jet to fly transatlantic. However, Boeing learnt for the Comet's problems and this gave them headway for future orders. De Havilland, the Comet's manufacturers, shared information they had learnt about metal fatigue with Boeing.

BOAC introduced the VC10 and the Super VC10. Both models were fine aircraft, popular with crews and passengers alike, but did not sell in large numbers. They were not successful but equally not unsuccessful.

BEA introduced the Trident and most of its variants - Trident 2, Trident 3. The Trident was for many years the backbone of the BEA fleet and was the first passenger aircraft with autoland. Even in the last few years of the Trident's life, these old aircraft could land when newer 737s were grounded by fog - a common occurrence on many of BEA's destinations.

I had always thought the original 747s ordered by BA had Rolls-Royce engines. It is true that the 747s ordered by BOAC had Pratt & Witney engines.

BA was not the launch customer of the 777. They were an early customer.





MOL on SRB's latest attack at BA: "It's like a little Chihuahua barking at a dying Labrador. Nobody cares."
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5874 times:

"the Airbus sales guy will enter his room, pick a sigar from his desk & sit down in the best seat, having a big smile all over his face..

Will the unyielding boosterism never cease? If, as the A380 boosters claim, the A380 is already such a roaring sales success, why are they so obsessed with the airlines that haven't ordered it yet? Why obsess and worry about potential customers like BA, JL, NH, CX, etc., as we've seen in countless other tiresome threads of the same ilk, when Airbus can sell 100+ to Mr. Clark at EK who's public utterances indicate they can't get enough A380s?

The argument that you'll have to buy now or somehow miss out later is better left at the used car lot. They were saying the same thing about the 744 in the late eighties, nobody seems to have been left in the dust.



User currently offlineTheBigOne From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2004, 240 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5847 times:

BCAL

I agree with your analysis that it was political pressure rather than choice that made BA take delivery of a number of aircraft that otherwise it may have declined. However I use these examples to illustrate the reasons for which BA are now 'cautious' in their approach to ordering new aircraft. Many of the new aircraft teething problems were experienced by BOAC and BEA, but none the less I would guess the learnings from this have filtered through to BA's modern management system.



Reach for the stars - they are closer than you think!
User currently offlineFLYSSC From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 7412 posts, RR: 57
Reply 13, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5815 times:

R. Eddington does not like to order a brand new launched aircraft

I'd rather say B.A has ALWAYS been reluctant to buy new Airbuses ...

In fact, B.A never bought any kind of Airbus before it inherited the 10 A320's order from B.Cal ... and it took quite a while before B.A admitted that the A320 family was far more interesting that the B737, and decided to acquire additional A320, A319, and only a few months ago their first A321.

BA will do what they've always done with Airbus : they're going to wait how the A380 is doing with other airlines and will finally come to order it.


User currently offlineBCAL From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2004, 3384 posts, RR: 16
Reply 14, posted (9 years 8 months 1 day ago) and read 5682 times:

TheBigOne

Doubtless the BA Board has learnt from past experiences but I also think being accountable to shareholders perhaps also has a bearing on why they are not generally launch customers for any aircraft.

Imagine if they were launch customers of a new aircraft that developed serious faults, had to be grounded and its CoA was withdrawn. Grounded aircraft = loss of revenue = reduced profits and share price falls = shareholders disappointed = possible action against board of directors. Of course, there might be some major advantages by being the first to operate an aircraft that fulfils all predictions, but it is a risk.

If I was CEO of BA, I would wait to see how SQ and others get on with the A380, and wait to see that most airports on the network can accommodate the plane before committing £millions in orders.

VS is in a different position to BA. Who are the shareholders of VS?

Regards
BCal




MOL on SRB's latest attack at BA: "It's like a little Chihuahua barking at a dying Labrador. Nobody cares."
User currently offlineWhiteHatter From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (9 years 8 months 23 hours ago) and read 5613 times:

BA have just turned in larger than expected profits for the last quarter after fuel costs, so their management are doing something right.

Fuel costs up over £100m but profits down less than £50m and full year revenue growth higher than first forecasts.

On the basis of that alone I'd be inclined to trust their judgement.


User currently offlineGDB From United Kingdom, joined May 2001, 13220 posts, RR: 77
Reply 16, posted (9 years 8 months 20 hours ago) and read 5426 times:

No R/R engines on 747's until 1977, so initial BA B747-136 had PW.

While it's true that the merged BA had many ex BEA managers unhappy with taking on Concorde, which coloured attitudes in the early years, the idea BA got them for free is a myth.
Once Lord King was running things that soon changed, BA pushed hard for the return to flight in late 2000/early 2001, witness BA's reluctance to retire it and the send off they gave it.

The only problem with BA and A380 is it seems the inability of some on here to grasp some basic facts that have been posted on here several times in the past week.
BA are NOT ordering any aircraft and won't be for a few years, when they do it will be between A350 and 787 for replacing 767's, then attention will turn to replacing older 747-400's, I'd say that A380 has as good a chance as anything for that requirement, for despite it seems a belief on here, BA do not favour Boeing or Airbus, in the past Airbus often did not have the products BA wanted.
Now Airbus have a more complete portfolio of products they stand more chance, it really is as simple as that.

But for now, BA are totally focused on reducing debt and getting a 10% operating margin, try selling to shareholders an aircraft shopping spree when the average fleet age today is 8 years.

Why does no one accuse AF of being anti Airbus for ordering 777's instead of A340-600's?
Were AF anti French industry for ordering 737-200's in the early 80's instead of pushing for better versions of the Mercure?
Were they anti Airbus for not ordering more A310's instead of 767's?
Of course not, so why all the flak at BA?




User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (9 years 8 months 17 hours ago) and read 5263 times:

BA was not the launch customer of the 777

No one here has said they were.
BA was however, the launch customer of the 772ER.


User currently offlineGDB From United Kingdom, joined May 2001, 13220 posts, RR: 77
Reply 18, posted (9 years 8 months 17 hours ago) and read 5210 times:

BA were one of the 'working together' group that helped define the 777, my boss in BA Concorde Maintenance between 1997-99, before taking that job, was a member of this group and got an award for his work.

Policy changed on being a launch customer in more recent years, fairly recently in fact.

You can look for clues, signs, on future BA aircraft procurement, but don't expect anything in the foreseeable future, for now, you might as well be reading tea leaves or tarot cards.


User currently offlineCORULEZ05 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (9 years 8 months 9 hours ago) and read 3896 times:

Not a bad idea to hold out....I am paying for making that mistake. Bought a brand new car, new model.....just off the assembly line and all kinds of trouble is coming up........so better to wait and let the little problems show up and be fixed and THEN take delivery.........just my 2 cents.

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