EMB195ER From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2004, 254 posts, RR: 9 Posted (8 years 10 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 3484 times:
An internal source at JJ told me that the flight to LIM is not in the budget of her departament for this year. As well the flight to NYC, which was removed from the budget last year, was not include this year again.
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 51 Reply 1, posted (8 years 10 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 3458 times:
TAM is so conservative....the take ages to make a decision...the expansion of their international network is so slow...in the meanwhile, GOL will expand and other foreign carriers keep growing in Brazil!
TAM is a top quality airline, but they need to change their Board!
JJMNGR From Brazil, joined May 2004, 1018 posts, RR: 16 Reply 3, posted (8 years 10 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3408 times:
What happened is that JJ could not run 10 or more budgets for 2005. One running alone with no code-share; another continuing code-share with RG; another if RG collapse; another if VASP collapse, and so forth...
So it was decided to run a 2005 budged considering same conditions of 2004 and in 2004 LIM and NYC were not included.
Things changes in Brazil all the time...
1) Code-Share is officially dead and countdown running.
2) VASP is not closed (like Transbrasil) but is not operating.
3) VARIG running bad, bad, bad, but still alive.
Today in the news, there is a note stating that Government changed the bankruptcy law and it includes airlines. For those who don´t know, till now an airlines could not go bankruptcy.....
So this scenario might help RG and VP....maybe TR...nobody knows.....
So, will all this unpredictable scenario...the forecast for 2005 was similar as 2004, which does not mean TAMll not look for these opportunities.
One of the 04 A332 flying for Ethyhad (PT-MVB) will return on March for a D- check and will enter back in service on JJ routes. Some 04 A320 are comming and in OCT a brand new A332 (the 10th in the fleet) is confirmed .
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 51 Reply 4, posted (8 years 10 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3391 times:
So, will all this unpredictable scenario...the forecast for 2005 was similar as 2004, which does not mean TAM will not look for these opportunities
But others are looking for opportunities faster than TAM.
GOL is a classical example. GOL's CEO got a full-page report yesterday on the Financial Times, which states that "GOL is already one of the best-run and most profitable airlines in the world". GOL has only four years.
Why does TAM have to wait for everybody's reaction? Why does TAM have to always work under a stable scenario? Why cant TAM take a more pro-active stance, such as GOL, or other major carriers such as Emirates or LAN?
If TAM were more agressive Varig would not be flying today, or its internationa network would be minimal. Is TAM waiting for Varig to stop flying so as to expand?
TAM need to change its Board, hire a professional team. GOL's Board is an example to be followed. GOL has one of the best Board in the private industry in Brazil.
What is TAM waiting for? Okay, maybe TAM is waiting for Varig to get healthy and VP to fly again...too late.
OzarkD9S From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4762 posts, RR: 22 Reply 5, posted (8 years 10 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 3349 times:
Maybe TAM doesn't want to end up like TransBrasil and VASP. Nothing wrong with taking a conservative approach in the airline industry, especially Brazil, where currency devaluations seem to happen every couple of years.
Ozark Flies Your Way, Coast To Coast and Border To Border
EMB195ER From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2004, 254 posts, RR: 9 Reply 6, posted (8 years 10 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3313 times:
I particularly believe that JJ is being to much conservative. They are always worried about competition and, in my point of view, there isn't a single profitable destination without competition in the world.
They should believe more in their product. Look their two international routes:
MIA - competing with RG, United, and AA. JJ product is good enough to support a second daily flight with a possible third daily flight coming in the future. Conclusion: JJ is doing better then some competitors.
CDG - competing with AF and RG. Again JJ product is good enough to support the introduction of a second flight which will become daily as soon as a the Bilateral agreement Brazil-France is expanded.
Based on the two examples above, we can conclude that TAM is able to face competition in a very efficient way. Of course in both routes they had AF and AA support at the beginning. However, I think that nowadays they are known enough to fly by themselves to new destinations.
Perhaps if JJ had decided to lose money during sometime in the route GRU-FRA-ZRH, today they would be making money with this flight.
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 51 Reply 9, posted (8 years 10 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 3288 times:
I though UA had stopped serving Brazil from MIA.
UA serves Brazil with daily flights from IAD and ORD.
Very good point! I agree with you. TAM has proven extremely competitive on routes with intense competition.
If TAM had remained on the route GRU-FRA-ZRH I'm sure it would be making money out of this route nowadays - and maybe LX would have dropped its flight to GRU, and JJ would have kept all the Swiss-Brazil market for itself!
It looks like TAM's management is too cautious, too slow, too conservative, too short-sighted, always waiting for the government, waiting for the competition, waiting for the ideal market conditions.
It's amazing that AFTER SO MANY YEARS TAM only serves so few international market, and only EZE, ASU and SCL in LatAM.
TAM's Fidelidade is another problem. Honestly, it looks a mess...the decision to drop the codeshare with AF was a disaster, putting off a major international parter.
PPVRA From Brazil, joined Nov 2004, 8761 posts, RR: 42 Reply 10, posted (8 years 10 months 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 3250 times:
I doubt JJ could have done very well in FRA/ZRH. Especailly now that they ended the codeshare with AF.
LH would have pulled their muscles, in cooperation with RG this time, just like they did with RG in MUC a few years ago. JJ could not have done well in FRA without an alliance or a codeshare partner, and their decision to leave FRA was, IMO, a wise one. Maybe they could codeshare with Deutsche BA or someone else...
I do think JJ should have started service to LIS a long time ago. Now that TP is joining STAR, it's another good chunk of the market JJ lost...
We'll se what happens.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 51 Reply 11, posted (8 years 10 months 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3231 times:
I doubt JJ could have done very well in FRA/ZRH. Especailly now that they ended the codeshare with AF.
Indeed, TAM should have never dropped its codeshare with AF.
JJ could not have done well in FRA without an alliance or a codeshare partner
You are correct. Maybe JJ should have operated GRU-ZRH nonstop daily instead. How do you think SA serves ZRH and CDG without codeshare?
JJ should have joined OW or Sky. In this way it could operate in markets such as MXP/FCO, AMS in addition to CDG (Sky) or LHR and MAD (OW), and kick RG out of these destinations. It could also expand to other destinations in the US.
My only hope now is that RG gets a major investor and goes back to normal. Of course, then it will be too late for TAM, and it will have missed a golden opportunity to become Brazil's flag carrier.
Avianca From Venezuela, joined Jan 2005, 5881 posts, RR: 39 Reply 12, posted (8 years 10 months 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3214 times:
JJ should reinstall a service to fra. with good conections to other brazil citys and in special to argentina (EZE) they easy could fill up a 4/7 A330-200 flight to FRA or even a daily flight.
German is big enough and with a rail and fly offer as a lot of airlines do it in germany, they can fill up the planes without a problem.
More problematic is the cargosituation on the gru market from germany/europe. Rates droped dramatically last 2 years and yes they are still better than the northbound rates from brazil to europe.
Rest of Brazilian market is still healty, but only for direkt flights (A-Service).d
ok we will see if JJ will reenter ther german market with a direct flight, because still in the moment JJ is the chepest contractor on the german / brazil and argentinian market via CDG.
EMB195ER From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2004, 254 posts, RR: 9 Reply 13, posted (8 years 10 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 3147 times:
I do unterstand that JJ philosophy is making money, but sometimes you have to lose some money first for then start getting some revenue.
In my point of view, there are three destinations in Europe that everyone can make money if a good product is offered. These destinations are: LHR, CDG, and FRA.
LHR, for instance, would be a good deal for JJ. VS is considering flying to Brazil, at least, we have seen some rumors lately. Therefore, I think this is a perfect moment for JJ start a flight to London in codeshare with VS (although VS doesn't have an intra-european network, it could be a good partner for TAM).
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 51 Reply 14, posted (8 years 10 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 3148 times:
In my point of view, there are three destinations in Europe that everyone can make money if a good product is offered. These destinations are: LHR, CDG and FRA.
Without a partner you cannot fly to these destinations. JJ only managed to establish iteself in CDG because of onward connection provided by AF, and in MIA because of AA (I read somewhere that 60% of JJ traffic to MIA and CDG are connecting onwards with AF/AA).
LHR: Brazil is the only country in LatAm with nonstop flights to LHR (two daily flights GRU-LHR with BA and RG). If JJ wants to fly to LHR it needs a partner: BA. JJ cannot fly to LHR alone, even because it wont even get the landing slots;
CDG: As I said, JJ is successful in CDG because of AF;
FRA: JJ cannot make money in this market. This is RG/LH territory, JJ has no chance. JJ should go fly ZRH nonstop instead.
If JJ wants to expand it needs to join either OW or Sky.
SOUTHAMERICA From Colombia, joined Dec 2003, 2496 posts, RR: 11 Reply 22, posted (8 years 10 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2997 times:
I did a quick search and, indeed, there are the following flights MEX-LHR: BA 3 x week with the B747.
Yes, BA has been increasing and decreasing services between 3 and 5 weekly flights in the LHR-MEX-LHR route, all operated on 744s. Throughout this year it appears as MEX will have to do with only 3.
Any other flights I'm not aware? You mentioned several flights LHR-MEX, so which are the other ones?
No, that's it for nonstops between Latin America and London. Aeromexico does have permission to fly to LGW, but apparently they aren't too interested if they don't get LHR [which is probably not happening soon].
Just for the record, I wrote that MEX got several weekly flights to LHR, pointing out precisely the 3 flights provided by BA.
So I will correct my phrase as follows: "Brazil is the only country in LatAm with daily nonstop flights to LHR.
...or if your wish is to give even more credits to Brazil, you could simply say that it is the only country in South America to have nonstops to LHR, and not only one daily, but two.
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 51 Reply 24, posted (8 years 10 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2997 times:
Thanks for the details and explanations, and I was not aware of BA flights to MEX. But I would consider this a couple of weekly flights instead of several. But that's purely semantical...The important fact was your correction pointing out BA operations in MEX.
Again, thanks for the explanation, and I do hope AM gets the landing slots in LHR. RG has been operating in LHR for ages (anyone with precise dates?), so it did not need to face this problem. And RG also has landing slots for 3 x week LHR-CPH, with 5th freedom rights.
Have a nice evening,
25 Hardiwv: I thought it was AF that killed the AF/JJ codeshare, not JJ, in response to JJ introducing a 2nd GRU-CDG flight? Please correct me if I am wrong... Th
26 Avianca: >ZRH is a difference story. There is market potential for more flights, and Switzerland has huge business with Brazil (farmaceutical and banking)
27 Hardiwv: LX can not fill up the flights only with a big amount of transfer passengers from all over europe and passenger with final destination EZE. LX does no
28 Avianca: I am aware that they only fly to GRU, and kicked the onforwarding flight to EZE. They transfer the passengers on the JJ flights to EZE, with big amou
29 PPVRA: Avianca, The problem is why would a German fly JJ? It can only take them to Brazil, and the miles they earned (and quite a bit of miles too) would onl
30 Avianca: why should not? why us a German LA? Chile is a much more smaller market than Brazil and receives a daily LH A346, and the conections on them are also
31 Hardiwv: Chile is a much more smaller market than Brazil and receives a daily LH A346, and the conections on them are also confinded. Capacity Brazil-Germany i
32 Avianca: >Capacity Brazil-Germany is FIVE times bigger than Chile-Germany. Chile only gets one daily flights with a stop-over in GRUMost of RG and LH pax out o
33 Hardiwv: market is also at least five times bigger, and FRA gets also a daily Santiago flight with LA (A343) via MAD But you forgot that Brazil get connect wit
34 Avianca: >Partners only connect from their hubs. FRA is LH hub. JJ has only ONE parter in Europe: AF. Without a partner, JJ cannot make it in FRA. Where would
35 Hardiwv: Avianca: LX has no codeshare agreement whatsoever with JJ or any other airline in South America. Pax have to buy a separate ticket. LX pax are 90% wit
36 Avianca: Hardiwv, just for example look this flight bookable on opodo.de _____________________________________________________ Economy-Tarif EUR 1021,72** Flug
37 Hardiwv: you will not buy two tickets. even the conection in gru to eze is with RG and the concections from eze to gru is with JJ Of course! This is a combinat
38 Avianca: you will also find tickets to gru with JJ from zrh via CDG and the flight to CDG is on behalf on Swiss and not AF. here a example for LH and JJ. Abflu
39 Hardiwv: Avianca: These type of tickets are combined tickets! Try to book the same ticket on JJ webpage and you cannot!!!!!!!!! You never get promotional fares
40 Avianca: ok if they combined tickets, why should JJ not receive passengers on FRA flights from other citys with these combined tickets to fill up flights? rega
41 JJMNGR: Some interesting points of view...some other not. When JJ decided to operate FRA, the market price of a Y tkt was USD759,00 RT. ONLY 03 months of oper
42 Hardiwv: RG very recently did an statement on a Brazilian newspaper, saying that they really fly to some destinations for patriotism. Come on!!! Fly to loose m
43 JJMNGR: Opinion is like butt...everybody has one. A flight full os passengers does not mean the airline is making money!!! Yes the flight to SCL may have poor
44 PPVRA: The answer might be: " For the same reasons that many French, English, Dutch, Italians, etc...prefer to fly to CDG to catch a JJ flight!!!! Because th
45 Arcano: Do you know which airline has an unprofitable route? TAM's SCL flight! The next destination TAM will axe. Its marketing was extremely poor; compare th
46 PPVRA: Hola Arcano! I am very sorry! I missread Hardi's post, I thought he included LA in the "conservative" group... I don't think they are in that group! A
47 EMB195ER: Hi guys, I have to agree with PPVRA, perhaps TAM is ignoring his biggest opportunity to become the Brazilian "first" airline. IF RG recovers from its
48 Hardiwv: cheers for that small contradiction of yours I hope you had the chance to read the meaning between the lines...try to read all my posts from the begin
49 Arcano: Probably TAM was much more known in Chile that I thought... As I told you once, it's amazing to realize almost nobody is aware of any airline named TA
50 Hardiwv: it's amazing to realize almost nobody is aware of any airline named TAM nobody knows TAM in Chile This has one name: poor marketing. You should see th
51 Jjmngr: Arcano, My best regards to you! In fact fllights are not full, but with an average load factor of 65% which is a good load factor, considering it is a
52 Hardiwv: In fact fllights are not full, but with an average load factor of 65% I consider this "low loads", especially because we are in the high season. Imagi
53 Arcano: No hards feelings at all, but I think you missunderstood me. I didn-t say to reply SIN in SCL, I mean Chile as a country is looking for raplying Singa
54 JJMNGR: Sorry but I can´t agree that it is hi season to Chile during this period. As far as I know, mid of the year is hi season to this destination. The com
55 Erikwilliam: I just want to add one thing to this post. JJ is beeing conservative, cause they are a private company that can not afford to make mistakes and lose t
56 Hardiwv: As far as I know, mid of the year is hi season to this destination. The comparisons of what is a good load or not , depends of what aircraft is being
57 Glennpower: I totally agree with HARDIWV about JJs C and F class,I recently flew from MIA to GRU with JJ and when checking in I mentioned that this was my first
58 JJMNGR: Hi Gleen, Good to hear from you!!! I am in debit with you!!! I am travelling a lot. Tomorrow and Wednesday in BHZ, Thursday in BSB and Friday in GRU.N
59 Hardiwv: HARDIWV i will be in rotterdam on the 24/02/05,and if you are free i can go to Amsterdam and meet you Chekc your email box. I'll send you an email and
60 Arcano: Sorry but I can´t agree that it is hi season to Chile during this period Not really, february is the one highest season for Chileans when travelling
61 JJMNGR: What a lot vacation for Chileans....anywhere I can find a job and live there? Cheers
62 EMB195ER: Hey guys! JJ has just announced a record profit in 2004, R$ 341 mi, what is something around U$ 126 mi. Very well done JJ!!!! Here is the news link (s
63 Avianca: Hardiwv, found this today on the LX webside ... Swiss Spring Savers Discover South America in spring with our attractive fares. Destinations Fares Bu
64 Arcano: No thanks, we are fully booked! anyway, you don't do bad at all with your free carnaval days, don't you? Regards )(
65 Hardiwv: Avianca: Interesting...with which airline in LX codesharing to all these Brazilian destinations? Tks,
66 Marambio: I believe it is TAM. At least to Buenos Aires (which is not a domestic destination but oh well ), Swiss codeshares with JJ just like KLM. Saludos, Ma
67 Avianca: as bevor posted from my side, some argentinian friends of mine used tam to conect to the swiss flight to zrh... saludos Avianca